Articles | Volume 9, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-829-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-829-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
14 Jun 2018
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 14 Jun 2018
| 14 Jun 2018
On the social dynamics of moisture recycling
Patrick W. Keys
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Global Environmental Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Lan Wang-Erlandsson
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Kyoto, Japan
Related authors
Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Ingo Fetzer, Patrick W. Keys, Ruud J. van der Ent, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Line J. Gordon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4311–4328, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4311-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4311-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Winds carry air moisture from one place to another. Thus, land-use change that alters air moisture content can also modify downwind rainfall and distant river flows. This aspect has rarely been taken into account in studies of river flow changes. We show here that remote land-use change effect on rainfall can exceed that of local, and that foreign nation influence on river flows is much more prevalent than previously thought. This has important implications for both land and water governance.
R. J. van der Ent, L. Wang-Erlandsson, P. W. Keys, and H. H. G. Savenije
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 471–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-471-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-471-2014, 2014
Hongkai Gao, Markus Hrachowitz, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Fabrizio Fenicia, Qiaojuan Xi, Jianyang Xia, Wei Shao, Ge Sun, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4477–4499, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4477-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4477-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The concept of the root zone is widely used but lacks a precise definition. Its importance in Earth system science is not well elaborated upon. Here, we clarified its definition with several similar terms to bridge the multi-disciplinary gap. We underscore the key role of the root zone in the Earth system, which links the biosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, atmosphere, and anthroposphere. To better represent the root zone, we advocate for a paradigm shift towards ecosystem-centred modelling.
En Ning Lai, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Vili Virkki, Miina Porkka, and Ruud J. van der Ent
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3999–4018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3999-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3999-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research scrutinized predicted changes in root zone soil moisture dynamics across different climate scenarios and different climate regions globally between 2021 and 2100. The Mediterranean and most of South America stood out as regions that will likely experience permanently drier conditions, with greater severity observed in the no-climate-policy scenarios. These findings underscore the impact that possible future climates can have on green water resources.
Chandrakant Singh, Ruud van der Ent, Ingo Fetzer, and Lan Wang-Erlandsson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1486, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1486, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical rainforests risk transforming into savanna-like landscapes under future climate change. By investigating the root zone storage dynamics and analyzing hydroclimate data from 33 Earth System Models (ESMs), we project the risk of rainforest tipping. While certain risks may be inevitable, the majority of them can still be avoided by adopting less severe climate scenarios. It is crucial to limit global surface temperatures below the Paris Agreement to preserve these valuable ecosystems.
Chinchu Mohan, Tom Gleeson, James S. Famiglietti, Vili Virkki, Matti Kummu, Miina Porkka, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Xander Huggins, Dieter Gerten, and Sonja C. Jähnig
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6247–6262, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6247-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6247-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The relationship between environmental flow violations and freshwater biodiversity at a large scale is not well explored. This study intended to carry out an exploratory evaluation of this relationship at a large scale. While our results suggest that streamflow and EF may not be the only determinants of freshwater biodiversity at large scales, they do not preclude the existence of relationships at smaller scales or with more holistic EF methods or with other biodiversity data or metrics.
Vili Virkki, Elina Alanärä, Miina Porkka, Lauri Ahopelto, Tom Gleeson, Chinchu Mohan, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Martina Flörke, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Naota Hanasaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Niko Wanders, and Matti Kummu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3315–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3315-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Direct and indirect human actions have altered streamflow across the world since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a method of environmental flow envelopes (EFEs) that develops the existing global environmental flow assessments by methodological advances and better consideration of uncertainty. By assessing the violations of the EFE, we comprehensively quantify the frequency, severity, and trends of flow alteration during the past decades, illustrating anthropogenic effects on streamflow.
Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Ingo Fetzer, Patrick W. Keys, Ruud J. van der Ent, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Line J. Gordon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4311–4328, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4311-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4311-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Winds carry air moisture from one place to another. Thus, land-use change that alters air moisture content can also modify downwind rainfall and distant river flows. This aspect has rarely been taken into account in studies of river flow changes. We show here that remote land-use change effect on rainfall can exceed that of local, and that foreign nation influence on river flows is much more prevalent than previously thought. This has important implications for both land and water governance.
Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Wim G. M. Bastiaanssen, Hongkai Gao, Jonas Jägermeyr, Gabriel B. Senay, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Juan P. Guerschman, Patrick W. Keys, Line J. Gordon, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1459–1481, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1459-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1459-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present an "Earth observation-based" method for estimating root zone storage capacity – a critical parameter in land surface modelling that represents the maximum amount of soil moisture available for vegetation. Variability within a land cover type is captured, and a global model evaporation simulation is overall improved, particularly in sub-humid to humid regions with seasonality. This new method can eliminate the need for unreliable soil and root depth data in land surface modelling.
L. Wang-Erlandsson, R. J. van der Ent, L. J. Gordon, and H. H. G. Savenije
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 441–469, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-441-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-441-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the temporal characteristics of partitioned evaporation on land, and we present STEAM (Simple Terrestrial Evaporation to Atmosphere Model) -- a hydrological land-surface model developed to provide inputs to moisture tracking. The terrestrial residence timescale of transpiration (days to months) has larger inter-seasonal variation and is substantially longer than that of interception (hours). This can cause differences in moisture recycling, which is investigated more in Part 2.
R. J. van der Ent, L. Wang-Erlandsson, P. W. Keys, and H. H. G. Savenije
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 471–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-471-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-471-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Dynamics of the Earth system: interactions
Continental heat storage: contributions from the ground, inland waters, and permafrost thawing
The rate of information transfer as a measure of ocean–atmosphere interactions
Evaluation of global teleconnections in CMIP6 climate projections using complex networks
On the additivity of climate responses to the volcanic and solar forcing in the early 19th century
Exploring the relationship between temperature forecast errors and Earth system variables
Trends and uncertainties of mass-driven sea-level change in the satellite altimetry era
The biogeophysical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes in Earth system models
Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks
Complex network analysis of fine particulate matter (PM2.5): transport and clustering
CO2 surface variability: from the stratosphere or not?
Quantifying memory and persistence in the atmosphere–land and ocean carbon system
Salinity dynamics of the Baltic Sea
Impact of urbanization on the thermal environment of the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration under complex terrain
Sensitivity of land–atmosphere coupling strength to changing atmospheric temperature and moisture over Europe
Human impacts and their interactions in the Baltic Sea region
Exploring the coupled ocean and atmosphere system with a data science approach applied to observations from the Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition
Accounting for surface waves improves gas flux estimation at high wind speed in a large lake
Multiscale fractal dimension analysis of a reduced order model of coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics
Modelling sea-level fingerprints of glaciated regions with low mantle viscosity
Jarzynski equality and Crooks relation for local models of air–sea interaction
Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming
A climate network perspective on the intertropical convergence zone
Spatiotemporal patterns of synchronous heavy rainfall events in East Asia during the Baiu season
Rankings of extreme and widespread dry and wet events in the Iberian Peninsula between 1901 and 2016
Stratospheric ozone and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) interaction with the tropical troposphere on intraseasonal and interannual timescales: a normal-mode perspective
Daytime low-level clouds in West Africa – occurrence, associated drivers, and shortwave radiation attenuation
Water transport among the world ocean basins within the water cycle
Economic impacts of a glacial period: a thought experiment to assess the disconnect between econometrics and climate sciences
Semi-equilibrated global sea-level change projections for the next 10 000 years
The synergistic impact of ENSO and IOD on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in observations and climate simulations – an information theory perspective
Climate change as an incentive for future human migration
Compound warm–dry and cold–wet events over the Mediterranean
Climate–groundwater dynamics inferred from GRACE and the role of hydraulic memory
Mesoscale atmospheric circulation controls of local meteorological elevation gradients on Kersten Glacier near Kilimanjaro summit
On the interconnections among major climate modes and their common driving factors
Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods
Back to the future II: tidal evolution of four supercontinent scenarios
Concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes at the global scale
Synthesis and evaluation of historical meridional heat transport from midlatitudes towards the Arctic
Amplified warming of seasonal cold extremes relative to the mean in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics
Tropical and mid-latitude teleconnections interacting with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a theory-guided causal effect network approach
Analysis of the position and strength of westerlies and trades with implications for Agulhas leakage and South Benguela upwelling
Organization of dust storms and synoptic-scale transport of dust by Kelvin waves
ESD Reviews: Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation
North Pacific subtropical sea surface temperature frontogenesis and its connection with the atmosphere above
The multi-scale structure of atmospheric energetic constraints on globally averaged precipitation
Potential of global land water recycling to mitigate local temperature extremes
Pipes to Earth's subsurface: the role of atmospheric conditions in controlling air transport through boreholes and shafts
Causal dependences between the coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics over the tropical Pacific, the North Pacific and the North Atlantic
Moisture transport and Antarctic sea ice: austral spring 2016 event
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change is caused by the accumulated heat in the Earth system, with the land storing the second largest amount of this extra heat. Here, new estimates of continental heat storage are obtained, including changes in inland-water heat storage and permafrost heat storage in addition to changes in ground heat storage. We also argue that heat gains in all three components should be monitored independently of their magnitude due to heat-dependent processes affecting society and ecosystems.
David Docquier, Stéphane Vannitsem, and Alessio Bellucci
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 577–591, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-577-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The climate system is strongly regulated by interactions between the ocean and atmosphere. However, many uncertainties remain in the understanding of these interactions. Our analysis uses a relatively novel approach to quantify causal links between the ocean surface and lower atmosphere based on satellite observations. We find that both the ocean and atmosphere influence each other but with varying intensity depending on the region, demonstrating the power of causal methods.
Clementine Dalelane, Kristina Winderlich, and Andreas Walter
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 17–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-17-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-17-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The realistic representation of global teleconnections is an indispensable requirement for the reliable simulation of low-frequency climate variability and climate change. We present an application of the complex network framework to quantify and evaluate large-scale interactions within and between ocean and atmosphere in 22 historical CMIP6 climate projections with respect to two century-long reanalyses.
Shih-Wei Fang, Claudia Timmreck, Johann Jungclaus, Kirstin Krüger, and Hauke Schmidt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1535–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1535-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The early 19th century was the coldest period over the past 500 years, when strong tropical volcanic events and a solar minimum coincided. This study quantifies potential surface cooling from the solar and volcanic forcing in the early 19th century with large ensemble simulations, and identifies the regions that their impacts cannot be simply additive. The cooling perspective of Arctic amplification exists in both solar and post-volcano period with the albedo feedback as the main contribution.
Melissa Ruiz-Vásquez, Sungmin O, Alexander Brenning, Randal D. Koster, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Ulrich Weber, Gabriele Arduini, Ana Bastos, Markus Reichstein, and René Orth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1451–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1451-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Subseasonal forecasts facilitate early warning of extreme events; however their predictability sources are not fully explored. We find that global temperature forecast errors in many regions are related to climate variables such as solar radiation and precipitation, as well as land surface variables such as soil moisture and evaporative fraction. A better representation of these variables in the forecasting and data assimilation systems can support the accuracy of temperature forecasts.
Carolina M. L. Camargo, Riccardo E. M. Riva, Tim H. J. Hermans, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1351–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1351-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1351-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The mass loss from Antarctica, Greenland and glaciers and variations in land water storage cause sea-level changes. Here, we characterize the regional trends within these sea-level contributions, taking into account mass variations since 1993. We take a comprehensive approach to determining the uncertainties of these sea-level changes, considering different types of errors. Our study reveals the importance of clearly quantifying the uncertainties of sea-level change trends.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1305–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation, and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occurs and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Maria Zeitz, Jan M. Haacker, Jonathan F. Donges, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1077–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet under global warming is crucial. Here, using PISM, we study how the interplay of feedbacks between the ice sheet, the atmosphere and solid Earth affects the long-term response of the Greenland Ice Sheet under constant warming. Our findings suggest four distinct dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet on the route to destabilization under global warming – from recovery via quasi-periodic oscillations in ice volume to ice sheet collapse.
Na Ying, Wansuo Duan, Zhidan Zhao, and Jingfang Fan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1029–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1029-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1029-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A complex PM2.5 measurement network has been built to investigate transport patterns and cooperative regions in China. Network-based degree measurements are used to reveal the spatial transport pattern of PM2.5. The study also attempts to investigate the seasonal transport path of PM2.5. In addition, the cooperation regions of PM2.5 are quantified according to their synchronicity characteristics. The proposed study can be applied to other air pollutant data, such as ozone and NOx.
Michael J. Prather
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 703–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-703-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric CO2 fluctuations point to changes in fossil fuel emissions plus natural and perturbed variations in the natural carbon cycle. One unstudied source of variability is the stratosphere, where the influx of aged CO2-depleted air can cause surface fluctuations. Using modeling and, separately, scaling the observed N2O variability, I find that stratosphere-driven surface variability in CO2 is not a significant uncertainty (at most 10 % of the observed interannual variability).
Matthias Jonas, Rostyslav Bun, Iryna Ryzha, and Piotr Żebrowski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 439–455, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-439-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We interpret carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning and land use as a global stress–strain experiment to reflect the overall behavior of the atmosphere–land and ocean system in response to increasing CO2 emissions since 1850. The system has been trapped progressively in terms of persistence, while its ability to build up memory has been reduced. We expect system failures globally well before 2050 if the current trend in emissions is not reversed immediately and sustainably.
Andreas Lehmann, Kai Myrberg, Piia Post, Irina Chubarenko, Inga Dailidiene, Hans-Harald Hinrichsen, Karin Hüssy, Taavi Liblik, H. E. Markus Meier, Urmas Lips, and Tatiana Bukanova
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 373–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-373-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-373-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The salinity in the Baltic Sea is not only an important topic for physical oceanography as such, but it also integrates the complete water and energy cycle. It is a primary external driver controlling ecosystem dynamics of the Baltic Sea. The long-term dynamics are controlled by river runoff, net precipitation, and the water mass exchange between the North Sea and Baltic Sea. On shorter timescales, the ephemeral atmospheric conditions drive a very complex and highly variable salinity regime.
Si Chen, Zhenghui Xie, Jinbo Xie, Bin Liu, Binghao Jia, Peihua Qin, Longhuan Wang, Yan Wang, and Ruichao Li
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 341–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-341-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-341-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study discusses the changes in the summer thermal environment in the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration due to urban expansion in complex terrain conditions in the recent 40 years, using high-resolution simulations with the WRF model. We quantify the influence of a single urban expansion factor and a single complex terrain factor on the urban thermal environment. Under the joint influence of complex terrain and urban expansion, the heat island effect caused by urbanization was enhanced.
Lisa Jach, Thomas Schwitalla, Oliver Branch, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 109–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-109-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The land surface can influence the occurrence of local rainfall through different feedback mechanisms. In Europe, this happens most frequently in summer. Here, we examine how differences in atmospheric temperature and moisture change where and how often the land surface can influence rainfall. The results show that the differences barely move the region of strong surface influence over Scandinavia and eastern Europe, but they can change the frequency of coupling events.
Marcus Reckermann, Anders Omstedt, Tarmo Soomere, Juris Aigars, Naveed Akhtar, Magdalena Bełdowska, Jacek Bełdowski, Tom Cronin, Michał Czub, Margit Eero, Kari Petri Hyytiäinen, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Anders Kiessling, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kuliński, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Michelle McCrackin, H. E. Markus Meier, Sonja Oberbeckmann, Kevin Parnell, Cristian Pons-Seres de Brauwer, Anneli Poska, Jarkko Saarinen, Beata Szymczycha, Emma Undeman, Anders Wörman, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR), we present an inventory and discussion of different human-induced factors and processes affecting the environment of the Baltic Sea region and their interrelations. Some are naturally occurring and modified by human activities, others are completely human-induced, and they are all interrelated to different degrees. The findings from this study can largely be transferred to other comparable marginal and coastal seas in the world.
Sebastian Landwehr, Michele Volpi, F. Alexander Haumann, Charlotte M. Robinson, Iris Thurnherr, Valerio Ferracci, Andrea Baccarini, Jenny Thomas, Irina Gorodetskaya, Christian Tatzelt, Silvia Henning, Rob L. Modini, Heather J. Forrer, Yajuan Lin, Nicolas Cassar, Rafel Simó, Christel Hassler, Alireza Moallemi, Sarah E. Fawcett, Neil Harris, Ruth Airs, Marzieh H. Derkani, Alberto Alberello, Alessandro Toffoli, Gang Chen, Pablo Rodríguez-Ros, Marina Zamanillo, Pau Cortés-Greus, Lei Xue, Conor G. Bolas, Katherine C. Leonard, Fernando Perez-Cruz, David Walton, and Julia Schmale
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1295–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1295-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition surveyed a large number of variables describing the dynamic state of ocean and atmosphere, freshwater cycle, atmospheric chemistry, ocean biogeochemistry, and microbiology in the Southern Ocean. To reduce the dimensionality of the dataset, we apply a sparse principal component analysis and identify temporal patterns from diurnal to seasonal cycles, as well as geographical gradients and
hotspotsof interaction. Code and data are open access.
Pascal Perolo, Bieito Fernández Castro, Nicolas Escoffier, Thibault Lambert, Damien Bouffard, and Marie-Elodie Perga
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1169–1189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1169-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Wind blowing over the ocean creates waves that, by increasing the level of turbulence, promote gas exchange at the air–water interface. In this study, for the first time, we measured enhanced gas exchanges by wind-induced waves at the surface of a large lake. We adapted an ocean-based model to account for the effect of surface waves on gas exchange in lakes. We finally show that intense wind events with surface waves contribute disproportionately to the annual CO2 gas flux in a large lake.
Tommaso Alberti, Reik V. Donner, and Stéphane Vannitsem
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 837–855, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-837-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-837-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a novel approach to diagnose the strength of the ocean–atmosphere coupling by using both a reduced order model and reanalysis data. Our findings suggest the ocean–atmosphere dynamics presents a rich variety of features, moving from a chaotic to a coherent coupled dynamics, mainly attributed to the atmosphere and only marginally to the ocean. Our observations suggest further investigations in characterizing the occurrence and spatial dependency of the ocean–atmosphere coupling.
Alan Bartholet, Glenn A. Milne, and Konstantin Latychev
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 783–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-783-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-783-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Improving the accuracy of regional sea-level projections is an important aim that will impact estimates of sea-level hazard around the globe. The computation of sea-level fingerprints is a key component of any such projection, and to date these computations have been based on the assumption that elastic deformation accurately describes the solid Earth response on century timescales. We show here that this assumption is inaccurate in some glaciated regions characterized by low mantle viscosity.
Achim Wirth and Florian Lemarié
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 689–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-689-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-689-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We show that modern concepts of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics can be applied to large-scale environmental fluid dynamics, where fluctuations are not thermal but come from turbulence. The work theorems developed by Jarzynski and Crooks are applied to air–sea interaction. Rather than looking at the average values of thermodynamic variables, their probability density functions are considered, which allows us to replace the inequalities of equilibrium statistical mechanics with equalities.
Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, Jürgen Kurths, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the Earth system, climate tipping elements exist that can undergo qualitative changes in response to environmental perturbations. If triggered, this would result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. We quantify the risk of tipping cascades using a conceptual but fully dynamic network approach. We uncover that the risk of tipping cascades under global warming scenarios is enormous and find that the continental ice sheets are most likely to initiate these failures.
Frederik Wolf, Aiko Voigt, and Reik V. Donner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 353–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-353-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-353-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In our work, we employ complex networks to study the relation between the time mean position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and sea surface temperature (SST) variability. We show that the information hidden in different spatial SST correlation patterns, which we access utilizing complex networks, is strongly correlated with the time mean position of the ITCZ. This research contributes to the ongoing discussion on drivers of the annual migration of the ITCZ.
Frederik Wolf, Ugur Ozturk, Kevin Cheung, and Reik V. Donner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 295–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-295-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Motivated by a lacking onset prediction scheme, we examine the temporal evolution of synchronous heavy rainfall associated with the East Asian Monsoon System employing a network approach. We find, that the evolution of the Baiu front is associated with the formation of a spatially separated double band of synchronous rainfall. Furthermore, we identify the South Asian Anticyclone and the North Pacific Subtropical High as the main drivers, which have been assumed to be independent previously.
Margarida L. R. Liberato, Irene Montero, Célia Gouveia, Ana Russo, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 197–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-197-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-197-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extensive, long-standing dry and wet episodes are frequent climatic extreme events (EEs) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). A method for ranking regional extremes of persistent, widespread drought and wet events is presented, using different SPEI timescales. Results show that there is no region more prone to EE occurrences in the IP, the most extreme extensive agricultural droughts evolve into hydrological and more persistent extreme droughts, and widespread wet and dry EEs are anti-correlated.
Breno Raphaldini, André S. W. Teruya, Pedro Leite da Silva Dias, Lucas Massaroppe, and Daniel Yasumasa Takahashi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 83–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-83-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-83-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Several recent studies suggest a modulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The physics behind this interaction, however, remain poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the QBO–MJO interaction and the role of stratospheric ozone as a forcing mechanism. A normal-mode decomposition procedure combined with causality analysis reveals significant interactions between MJO-related modes and QBO-related modes.
Derrick K. Danso, Sandrine Anquetin, Arona Diedhiou, Kouakou Kouadio, and Arsène T. Kobea
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1133–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1133-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1133-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The atmospheric and surface conditions that exist during the occurrence of daytime low-level clouds (LLCs) and their influence on solar radiation were investigated in West Africa. During the monsoon season, these LLCs are linked to high moisture flux driven by strong southwesterly winds from the Gulf of Guinea and significant background moisture levels. Their occurrence leads to a strong reduction in the incoming solar radiation and has large impacts on the surface energy budget.
David García-García, Isabel Vigo, and Mario Trottini
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1089–1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1089-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1089-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The global water cycle involves water-mass transport on land, in the atmosphere, in the ocean, and among them. The GRACE mission has allowed for the quantification of water-mass variations. It was a revolution in the understanding of Earth dynamics. Here, we develop and apply a novel method, based on GRACE data and atmospheric models, that allows systematic estimation of water-mass exchange among ocean basins. This is valuable for understanding the role of the ocean within the water cycle.
Marie-Noëlle Woillez, Gaël Giraud, and Antoine Godin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1073–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1073-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1073-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
To illustrate the fact that future economic damage from global warming is often highly underestimated, we applied two different statistically based damage functions available in the literature to a global cooling of 4 °C. We show that the gross domestic product (GDP) projections obtained are at odds with the state of the planet during an ice age. We conclude that such functions do not provide relevant information on potential damage from a large climate change, be it cooling or warming.
Jonas Van Breedam, Heiko Goelzer, and Philippe Huybrechts
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We made projections of global mean sea-level change during the next 10 000 years for a range in climate forcing scenarios ranging from a peak in carbon dioxide concentrations in the next decades to burning most of the available carbon reserves over the next 2 centuries. We find that global mean sea level will rise between 9 and 37 m, depending on the emission of greenhouse gases. In this study, we investigated the long-term consequence of climate change for sea-level rise.
Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Cristina Primo, Silje Sørland, and Bodo Ahrens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 903–923, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-903-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-903-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Information exchange (IE) from the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is investigated. Observational data show that IOD and ENSO synergistically exchange information on ISMR variability over central India. IE patterns observed in three global climate models (GCMs) differ from observations. Our study highlights new perspectives that IE metrics could bring to climate science.
Min Chen and Ken Caldeira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 875–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the implications of future motivation for humans to migrate by analyzing today’s relationships between climatic factors and population density, with all other factors held constant. Such analyses are unlikely to make accurate predictions but can still be useful for informing discussions about the broad range of incentives that might influence migration decisions. Areas with the highest projected population growth rates tend to be the areas most adversely affected by climate change.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Philip J. Ward, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 793–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we quantify Mediterranean compound temperature and precipitation dynamical extremes (CDEs) over the 1979–2018 period. The strength of the temperature–precipitation coupling during summer increased and is driven by surface warming. We also link the CDEs to compound hot–dry and cold–wet events during summer and winter respectively.
Simon Opie, Richard G. Taylor, Chris M. Brierley, Mohammad Shamsudduha, and Mark O. Cuthbert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 775–791, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Knowledge of the relationship between climate and groundwater is limited and typically undermined by the scale, duration and accessibility of observations. Using monthly satellite measurements newly compiled over 14 years in the tropics and sub-tropics, we show that the imprint of precipitation history on groundwater, i.e. hydraulic memory, is longer in drylands than humid environments with important implications for the understanding and management of groundwater resources under climate change.
Thomas Mölg, Douglas R. Hardy, Emily Collier, Elena Kropač, Christina Schmid, Nicolas J. Cullen, Georg Kaser, Rainer Prinz, and Michael Winkler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 653–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-653-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-653-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The glaciers on Kilimanjaro summit are like sample spots of the climate in the tropical mid-troposphere. Measurements of air temperature, air humidity, and precipitation with automated weather stations show that the differences in these meteorological elements between two altitudes (~ 5600 and ~ 5900 m) vary significantly over the day and the seasons, in concert with airflow dynamics around the mountain. Knowledge of these variations will improve atmosphere and cryosphere models.
Xinnong Pan, Geli Wang, Peicai Yang, Jun Wang, and Anastasios A. Tsonis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 525–535, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-525-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-525-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The variations in oceanic and atmospheric modes play important roles in global and regional climate variability. The relationships between their variations and regional climate variability have been extensively examined, but the interconnections among these climate modes remain unclear. We show that the base periods and their harmonic oscillations that appear to be related to QBO, ENSO, and solar activities act as key connections among the climatic modes with synchronous behaviors.
Martin Wegmann, Marco Rohrer, María Santolaria-Otín, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 509–524, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Predicting the climate of the upcoming season is of big societal benefit, but finding out which component of the climate system can act as a predictor is difficult. In this study, we focus on Eurasian snow cover as such a component and show that knowing the snow cover in November is very helpful in predicting the state of winter over Europe. However, this mechanism was questioned in the past. Using snow data that go back 150 years into the past, we are now very confident in this relationship.
Hannah S. Davies, J. A. Mattias Green, and Joao C. Duarte
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 291–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-291-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-291-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We have confirmed that there is a supertidal cycle associated with the supercontinent cycle. As continents drift due to plate tectonics, oceans also change size, controlling the strength of the tides and causing periods of supertides. In this work, we used a coupled tectonic–tidal model of Earth's future to test four different scenarios that undergo different styles of ocean closure and periods of supertides. This has implications for the Earth system and for other planets with liquid oceans.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Robert L. Wilby, Maurizio Mazzoleni, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We show that floods and droughts can co-occur in time across remote regions on the globe and introduce metrics that can help in quantifying concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes. We then link wet–dry extremes to major modes of climate variability (i.e. ENSO, PDO, and AMO) and provide their spatial patterns. Such concurrent extreme hydrological events may pose risks to regional hydropower production and agricultural yields.
Yang Liu, Jisk Attema, Ben Moat, and Wilco Hazeleger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 77–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-77-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-77-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Poleward meridional energy transport (MET) has significant impact on the climate in the Arctic. In this study, we quantify and intercompare MET at subpolar latitudes from six reanalysis data sets. The results indicate that the spatial distribution and temporal variations of MET differ substantially among the reanalysis data sets. Our study suggests that the MET estimated from reanalyses is useful for the evaluation of energy transports but should be used with great care.
Mia H. Gross, Markus G. Donat, Lisa V. Alexander, and Steven C. Sherwood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 97–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-97-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-97-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the amplified warming of cold extremes relative to average temperatures for both the recent past and future in the Northern Hemisphere and the possible physical processes that are driving this. We find that decreases in snow cover and
warmer-than-usual winds are driving the disproportionate rates of warming in cold extremes relative to average temperatures. These accelerated warming rates in cold extremes have implications for tourism, insect longevity and human health.
Giorgia Di Capua, Marlene Kretschmer, Reik V. Donner, Bart van den Hurk, Ramesh Vellore, Raghavan Krishnan, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 17–34, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-17-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-17-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Drivers from both the mid-latitudes and the tropical regions have been proposed to influence the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) subseasonal variability. To understand the relative importance of tropical and mid-latitude drivers, we apply recently developed causal discovery techniques to disentangle the causal relationships among these processes. Our results show that there is indeed a two-way interaction between the mid-latitude circulation and ISM rainfall over central India.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Kay-Christian Emeis, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Arne Biastoch, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 847–858, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-847-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-847-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our study reveals that the latitudinal position and intensity of Southern Hemisphere trades and westerlies are correlated. In the last decades the westerlies have shifted poleward and intensified. Furthermore, the latitudinal shifts and intensity of the trades and westerlies impact the sea surface temperatures around southern Africa and in the South Benguela upwelling region. The future development of wind stress depends on the strength of greenhouse gas forcing.
Ashok Kumar Pokharel and Michael L. Kaplan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 651–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-651-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-651-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study contributes to a better understanding of how large-scale dust transport can be organized from northwest Africa to the US, Amazon basin, and Europe and might be due in part to Kelvin waves. We also think there is still a need to study major historical dust events that occurred in this region to confirm that this location is suitable and responsible for the generation of the Kelvin waves and the transport of dust on a regular basis.
Christoph Heinze, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Colin Jones, Yves Balkanski, William Collins, Thierry Fichefet, Shuang Gao, Alex Hall, Detelina Ivanova, Wolfgang Knorr, Reto Knutti, Alexander Löw, Michael Ponater, Martin G. Schultz, Michael Schulz, Pier Siebesma, Joao Teixeira, George Tselioudis, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 379–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models for producing climate projections under given forcings include additional processes and feedbacks that traditional physical climate models do not consider. We present an overview of climate feedbacks for key Earth system components and discuss the evaluation of these feedbacks. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research.
Leying Zhang, Haiming Xu, Jing Ma, Ning Shi, and Jiechun Deng
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 261–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-261-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-261-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Net heat flux dominates the frontogenesis of the NPSTF from October to December, while oceanic meridional temperature advection contributes equally as much or even more net heat flux in January and February. The atmosphere is critical to frontogenesis through net heat flux and the Aleutian low, the latter of which benefits meridional temperature advection.
Miguel Nogueira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 219–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-219-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-219-2019, 2019
Mathias Hauser, Wim Thiery, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 157–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-157-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-157-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a method to keep the amount of water in the soil at the present-day level, using only local water sources in a global climate model. This leads to less drying over many land areas, but also decreases river runoff. We find that temperature extremes in the 21st century decrease substantially using our method. This provides a new perspective on how land water can influence regional climate and introduces land water management as potential tool for local mitigation of climate change.
Elad Levintal, Nadav G. Lensky, Amit Mushkin, and Noam Weisbrod
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1141–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1141-2018, 2018
Stéphane Vannitsem and Pierre Ekelmans
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1063–1083, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1063-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1063-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon is a slow dynamics present in the coupled ocean–atmosphere tropical Pacific system which has important teleconnections with the northern extratropics. These teleconnections are usually believed to be the source of an enhanced predictability in the northern extratropics at seasonal to decadal timescales. This question is challenged by investigating the causality between these regions using an advanced technique known as convergent cross mapping.
Monica Ionita, Patrick Scholz, Klaus Grosfeld, and Renate Treffeisen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 939–954, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-939-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-939-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In austral spring 2016 the Antarctic region experienced anomalous sea ice retreat in all sectors, with sea ice extent in October and November 2016 being the lowest in the Southern Hemisphere over the observational record (1979–present). The extreme sea ice retreat was accompanied by the wettest and warmest spring on record, over large areas covering the Indian ocean, the Ross Sea, and the Weddell Sea.
Cited articles
Allan, J. A.: “Virtual water”: a long term solution for water short Middle
Eastern economies?, School of Oriental and African Studies, University of
London, London, 1997. a
Badger, A. M. and Dirmeyer, P. A.: Climate response to Amazon forest
replacement by heterogeneous crop cover, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19,
4547–4557, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-4547-2015, 2015. a, b
Bagley, J. E., Desai, A. R., Dirmeyer, P. A., and Foley, J. A.: Effects of land
cover change on moisture availability and potential crop yield in the world's
breadbaskets, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 014009,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014009, 2012. a
Benjaminsen, T. A., Holden, S., Lund, C., and Sjaastad, E.: Formalisation of
land rights: Some empirical evidence from Mali, Niger and South Africa, Land
Use Policy, 26, 28–35, 2009. a
Cosens, B. A. and Williams, M. K.: Resilience and water governance: adaptive
governance in the Columbia River basin, Ecol. Soc., 17, 3, https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-04986-170403,
2012. a
De Beurs, K. M. and Henebry, G. M.: Land surface phenology, climatic variation,
and institutional change: analyzing agricultural land cover change in
Kazakhstan, Remote Sens. Environ., 89, 497–509, 2004. a
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi,
S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P.,
Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C.,
Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B.,
Hersbach, H., Hólm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kållberg, P., Köhler, M.,
Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J. J., Park,
B. K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thépaut, J. N., and Vitart,
F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data
assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011. a
Descheemaeker, K., Amede, T., Haileslassie, A., and Bossio, D.: Analysis of
gaps and possible interventions for improving water productivity in crop
livestock systems of Ethiopia, Exp. Agr., 47, 21–38, 2011. a
Dirmeyer, P. A. and Brubaker, K. L.: Contrasting evaporative moisture sources
during the drought of 1988 and the flood of 1993, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 104, 19383–19397, 1999. a
Dominguez, F., Kumar, P., Liang, X. Z., and Ting, M.: Impact of atmospheric
moisture storage on precipitation recycling, J. Climate, 19,
1513–1530, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3691.1, 2006. a
Ellison, D., Futter, M., and Bishop, K.: On the forest cover-water yield
debate: from demand- to supply-side thinking, Glob. Change Biol., 18,
806–820, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02589.x, 2012. a
Endo, A., Burnett, K., Orencio, P. M., Kumazawa, T., Wada, C. A., Ishii, A.,
Tsurita, I., and Taniguchi, M.: Methods of the water-energy-food nexus,
Water, 7, 5806–5830, 2015. a
Enfors, E.: Social – ecological traps and transformations in dryland
agro-ecosystems. Using water system innovations to change the trajectory of
development, Global Environ. Chang., 23, 51–60,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.007,
2013. a
Finer, M., Jenkins, C. N., Pimm, S. L., Keane, B., and Ross, C.: Oil and gas
projects in the western Amazon: threats to wilderness, biodiversity, and
indigenous peoples, PloS one, 3, e2932, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0002932, 2008. a, b
Flach, R., Ran, Y., Godar, J., Karlberg, L., and Suavet, C.: Towards more
spatially explicit assessments of virtual water flows: linking local water
use and scarcity to global demand of Brazilian farming commodities,
Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 075003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/075003, 2016. a, b, c
Foley, J. A., Coe, M. T., Scheffer, M., and Wang, G.: Regime Shifts in the
Sahara and Sahel: Interactions between Ecological and Climatic Systems in
Northern Africa, Ecosystems, 6, 524–532, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-002-0227-0,
2003. a
Folke, C.: Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social-ecological
systems analyses, Global Environ. Chang., 16, 253–267,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.04.002,
2006. a, b, c
Folke, C., Carpenter, S., Walker, B., Scheffer, M., Elmqvist, T., Gunderson,
L., and Holling, C.: Regime Shifts, Resilience, and Biodiversity in
Ecosystem Management, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst.,
35, 557–581, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.35.021103.105711,
2004. a, b, c
Friis, C., Nielsen, J. Ø., Otero, I., Haberl, H., Niewöhner, J., and
Hostert, P.: From teleconnection to telecoupling: taking stock of an emerging
framework in land system science, Journal of Land Use Science, 11, 131–153,
2016. a
Galaz, V., Gars, J., Moberg, F., Nykvist, B., and Repinski, C.: Why ecologists
should care about financial markets, Trends Ecol. Evol., 30,
571–580, 2015. a
Galaz, V., Tallberg, J., Boin, A., Ituarte-Lima, C., Hey, E., Olsson, P., and
Westley, F.: Global Governance Dimensions of Globally Networked Risks: The
State of the Art in Social Science Research, Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy, 8, 4–27, 2017. a
Gordon, L. J., Steffen, W., Jönsson, B. F., Folke, C., Falkenmark, M.,
and
Johannessen, A.: Human modification of global water vapor flows from the land
surface, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 102, 7612–7617,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0500208102, 2005. a
Gotts, N. M.: Resilience, panarchy, and world-systems analysis, Ecol. Soc.,
12, 24, 2007. a
Grumbine, R. E., Dore, J., Xu, J.: Mekong hydropower: drivers of change and
governance challenges, Front. Ecol. Environ., 10, 91–98, 2012. a
Gunderson, L., Cosens, B. A., Chaffin, B. C., Arnold, C. A., Fremier, A. K.,
Garmestani, A. S., Craig, R. K., Gosnell, H., Birge, H. E., Allen, C. R., and
Benson, M. H.: Regime shifts and panarchies in regional scale
social-ecological
water systems, Ecol. Soc., 22, https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-08879-220131, 2017. a, b
Halder, S., Saha, S. K., Dirmeyer, P. A., Chase, T. N., and Goswami, B. N.:
Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer
monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional
climate model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1765–1784,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1765-2016, 2016. a
Hansen, S.: Debt for nature swaps? overview and discussion of key issues,
Ecol. Econ., 1, 77–93, 1989. a
Heistermann, M.: HESS Opinions: A planetary boundary on freshwater use is
misleading, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3455–3461,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3455-2017, 2017. a
Hiernaux, P., Ayantunde, A., Kalilou, A., Mougin, E., Gérard, B., Baup, F.,
Grippa, M., and Djaby, B.: Trends in productivity of crops, fallow and
rangelands in Southwest Niger: Impact of land use, management and variable
rainfall, J. Hydrol., 375, 65–77, 2009. a
Holling, C. S.: Understanding the Complexity of Economic, Ecological, and
Social Systems, Ecosystems, 4, 390–405, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-001-0101-5, 2001. a, b, c
Hurrell, A.: The politics of Amazonian deforestation, J. Lat. Am. Stud., 23,
197–215, 1991. a
Jargalsaikhan, M.: Mongolia's domestic politics complicate foreign policy in a
precarious international setting, Tech. Rep. Asia Pacific Bulletin, No. 399,
Washington, DC: East-West Center, available at:
https://www.eastwestcenter.org/system/tdf/private/apb399.pdf?file=1&type=node&id=36311
(last access: 28 November 2017),
2017. a
Johansson, E. L., Fader, M., Seaquist, J. W., and Nicholas, K. A.: Green and
blue water demand from large-scale land acquisitions in Africa,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 11471–11476, 2016. a
Kainer, K. A., Schmink, M., PINHEIRO LEITE, A. C., and da Silva Fadell, M. J.:
Experiments in forest-based development in western Amazonia, Soc.
Natural Resour., 16, 869–886, 2003. a
Kalamandeen, M., Gloor, E., Mitchard, E., Quincey, D., Ziv, G., Spracklen, D.,
Spracklen, B., Adami, M., Aragão, L. E., and Galbraith, D.: Pervasive
Rise of Small-scale Deforestation in Amazonia, Scientific reports, 8, 1600, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-19358-2,
2018. a, b, c
Kendy, E., Molden, D. J., Steenhuis, T. S., Liu, C., and Wang, J.: Policies
drain the North China Plain: Agricultural policy and groundwater depletion in
Luancheng County, 1949–2000, Vol. 71, IWMI, Colombo, Sri Lanka, 2003. a
Keys, P. W. and Falkenmark, M.: Green water and African sustainability, Food
Secur., 10, 537–548, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-018-0790-7, 2018. a
Keys, P. W., Barnes, E. A., van der Ent, R. J., and Gordon, L. J.:
Variability of moisture recycling using a precipitationshed framework,
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3937–3950,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3937-2014, 2014. a, b
Keys, P. W., Wang-Erlandsson, L., and Gordon, L. J.: Revealing invisible water:
moisture recycling as an ecosystem service, PloS one, 11, e0151993, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0151993,
2016. a, b, c, d
Keys, P. W., Wang-Erlandsson, L., and Gordon, L. J.: Megacity
precipitationsheds reveal tele-connected water security challenges, PloS one,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194311, 2018. a
Killeen, T. J., Calderon, V., Soria, L., Quezada, B., Steininger, M. K.,
Harper, G., Solórzano, L. A., and Tucker, C. J.: Thirty years of
land-cover change in Bolivia, AMBIO, 36,
600–606, 2007. a
Killeen, T. J., Guerra, A., Calzada, M., Correa, L., Calderon, V., Soria, L.,
Quezada, B., and Steininger, M.: Total historical land-use change in eastern
Bolivia: Who, where, when, and how much?, Ecol. Soc., 13, 36, 2008. a
Koster, R., Jouzel, J., Suozzo, R., Russell, G., Broecker, W., Rind, D., and
Eagleson, P.: Global sources of local precipitation as determined by the
NASA/GISS GCM, Geophys. Res. Lett., 13, 121–124, 1986. a
Land Matrix Global Observatory: available at:
http://www.landmatrix.org/en/get-the-detail/by-target-country/nigeria/?order_by=&starts_with=N
(last access: 15 May 2018), 2018. a
Lawrence, D. and Vandecar, K.: Effects of tropical deforestation on climate and
agriculture, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 27–36, 2015. a
Lettau, H., Lettau, K., and Molion, L. C.: Amozonia's hydrological cycle and
the role of atmospheric recycling in assessing deforestation effects, Mon.
Weather Rev., 107, 227–238, 1979. a
Levin, S., Xepapadeas, T., Crépin, A.-S., Norberg, J., De Zeeuw, A., Folke,
C., Hughes, T., Arrow, K., Barrett, S., Daily, G., et al.: Social-ecological
systems as complex adaptive systems: modeling and policy implications,
Environ. Dev. Econ., 18, 111–132, 2013. a
Liu, J., Mooney, H., Hull, V., Davis, S. J., Gaskell, J., Hertel, T.,
Lubchenco, J., Seto, K. C., Gleick, P., Kremen, C., and Li, S.: Systems
integration for global sustainability, Science, 347, 1258832, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1258832,
2015. a
Lo, M. and Famiglietti, J. S.: Irrigation in California's Central Valley
strengthens the southwestern U.S. water cycle, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
40, 301–306, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50108, 2013. a, b
Malhi, Y., Adu-Bredu, S., Asare, R. A., Lewis, S. L., and Mayaux, P.: African
rainforests: past, present and future, Philos. T. R. Soc. B, 368,
20120312, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2012.0312, 2013. a
Meyfroidt, P., Schierhorn, F., Prishchepov, A. V., Müller, D., and
Kuemmerle, T.: Drivers, constraints and trade-offs associated with
recultivating abandoned cropland in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, Global
Environmen. Chang., 37, 1–15, 2016. a
Mortimore, M. J. and Tiffen, M.: Population Growth and a Sustainable
Environment, Environment, 36, 16, 1994. a
Nasi, R., Billand, A., and van Vliet, N.: Managing for timber and biodiversity
in the Congo Basin, Forest Ecol. Manag., 268, 103–111, 2012. a
Neal, M. J., Lukasiewicz, A., and Syme, G. J.: Why justice matters in water
governance: some ideas for a “water justice framework”, Water Policy, 16,
1–18, 2012. a
Osabuohien, E. S.: Large-scale agricultural land investments and local
institutions in Africa: The Nigerian case, Land Use Policy, 39, 155–165,
2014. a
Ostrom, E.: A general framework for analyzing sustainability of
social-ecological systems, Science, 325, 419–422,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1172133, 2009. a
Priess, J. A., Schweitzer, C., Wimmer, F., Batkhishig, O., and Mimler, M.: The
consequences of land-use change and water demands in Central Mongolia, Land
Use Policy, 28, 4–10, 2011. a
Robinson, S., Milner-Gulland, E., and Alimaev, I.: Rangeland degradation in
Kazakhstan during the Soviet era: re-examining the evidence, J. Arid
Environ., 53, 419–439, 2003. a
Rockström, J., Barron, J., and Fox, P.: Rainwater management for increased
productivity among small-holder farmers in drought prone environments,
Phys. Chem. Earth, 27, 949–959, 2002. a
Rockström, J., Falkenmark, M., Karlberg, L., Hoff, H., Rost, S., and Gerten,
D.: Future water availability for global food production: The potential of
green water for increasing resilience to global change, Water Resour. Res.,
45, W00A12, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR006767, 2009. a
Rockström, J., Falkenmark, M., Lannerstad, M., and Karlberg, L.: The
planetary water drama: Dual task of feeding humanity and curbing climate
change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L15401, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051688, 2012. a
Roncoli, C., Ingram, K., and Kirshen, P.: Reading the rains: local knowledge
and rainfall forecasting in Burkina Faso, Soc. Natur. Resour., 15,
409–427, 2002. a
Salih, A. A. M., Körnich, H., and Tjernström, M.: Climate impact of
deforestation over South Sudan in a regional climate model, Int. J.
Climatol., 33, 2362–2375, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3586, 2013. a
Saruchera, D. and Lautze, J.: Measuring transboundary water cooperation:
learning from the past to inform the sustainable development goals, Vol. 168,
International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Colombo, Sri Lanka, 2015. a
Savenije, H. H. G.: New definitions for moisture recycling and the relationship
with land-use changes in the Sahel, J. Hydrol., 167, 57–78, 1995. a
Sivapalan, M., Savenije, H. H., and Blöschl, G.: Socio-hydrology: A new
science of people and water, Hydrol. Process., 26, 1270–1276, 2012. a
Socioeconomic and Data Applications Center SEDAC:
Poverty Mapping Project: Global Subnational Prevalence of Child Malnutrition,
data retrieved from Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC),
https://doi.org/10.7927/H4K64G12, 2005. a, b
Spracklen, D. and Garcia-Carreras, L.: The impact of Amazonian deforestation on
Amazon basin rainfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 9546–9552,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066063, 2015. a, b
Steffen, W., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., Cornell, S. E., Fetzer, I.,
Bennett, E. M., Biggs, R., Carpenter, S. R., De Vries, W., de Wit, C. A., and
Folke, C.: Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing
planet,
Science, 347, 1259855, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1259855, 2015. a
Swann, A. L., Longo, M., Knox, R. G., Lee, E., and Moorcroft, P. R.: Future
deforestation in the Amazon and consequences for South American climate, Agr.
Forest Meteorol., 214, 12–24, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.07.006, 2015. a
Thompson, S. E., Sivapalan, M., Harman, C. J., Srinivasan, V., Hipsey, M. R.,
Reed, P., Montanari, A., and Blöschl, G.: Developing predictive insight
into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the
Anthropocene, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 5013–5039,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5013-2013, 2013. a
Toulmin, C.: Securing land and property rights in sub-Saharan Africa: the role
of local institutions, Land Use Policy, 26, 10–19, 2009. a
Tschakert, P.: Views from the vulnerable: Understanding climatic and other
stressors in the Sahel, Global Environ. Chang., 17, 381–396,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.11.008,
2007. a
Tuinenburg, O. A., Hutjes, R. W. A., Stacke, T., Wiltshire, A., and
Lucas-Picher, P.: Effects of Irrigation in India on the Atmospheric Water
Budget, J. Hydrometeorol., 15, 1028–1050,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-078.1, 2014. a, b
USAID: Country Profile: Chad, available at:
https://www.land-links.org/country-profile/chad/ (last access: 6
October 2017), 2010. a
USAID: Country Profile: Sudan, available at:
https://www.land-links.org/country-profile/sudan/ (last access: 6
October 2017), 2013. a
van der Ent, R. J., Savenije, H. H., Schaefli, B., and Steele-Dunne, S. C.:
Origin and fate of atmospheric moisture over continents, Water Resour.
Res., 46, W09525, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009127, 2010. a, b
van der Ent, R. J., Tuinenburg, O. A., Knoche, H.-R., Kunstmann, H., and
Savenije, H. H. G.: Should we use a simple or complex model for moisture
recycling and atmospheric moisture tracking?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17,
4869–4884, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-4869-2013, 2013. a, b
Verburg, P. H., Ellis, E. C., and Letourneau, A.: A global assessment of
market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change
studies, Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 034019,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034019,
2011. a, b, c
Vrese, P., Hagemann, S., and Claussen, M.: Asian irrigation, African rain:
Remote impacts of irrigation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 3737–3745,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068146, 2016. a
Wada, Y., Bierkens, M. F. P., de Roo, A., Dirmeyer, P. A., Famiglietti, J.
S., Hanasaki, N., Konar, M., Liu, J., Müller Schmied, H., Oki, T.,
Pokhrel, Y., Sivapalan, M., Troy, T. J., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., van Emmerik,
T., Van Huijgevoort, M. H. J., Van Lanen, H. A. J., Vörösmarty, C.
J., Wanders, N., and Wheater, H.: Human-water interface in hydrological
modelling: current status and future directions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.,
21, 4169–4193, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4169-2017, 2017. a
Walther, B. A.: A review of recent ecological changes in the Sahel, with
particular reference to land-use change, plants, birds and mammals, Afr.
J. Ecol., 54, 268–280, 2016. a
Wang-Erlandsson, L., Bastiaanssen, W. G. M., Gao, H., Jägermeyr, J.,
Senay, G. B., van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Guerschman, J. P., Keys, P. W., Gordon,
L. J., and Savenije, H. H. G.: Global root zone storage capacity from
satellite-based evaporation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1459–1481,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1459-2016, 2016. a
Wei, J., Dirmeyer, P. A., Wisser, D., Bosilovich, M. G., and Mocko, D. M.:
Where Does the Irrigation Water Go? An Estimate of the Contribution of
Irrigation to Precipitation Using MERRA, J. Hydrometeorol., 14,
275–289, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-079.1, 2013. a, b, c
Zalasiewicz, J., Waters, C. N., Williams, M., Barnosky, A. D., Cearreta, A.,
Crutzen, P., Ellis, E., Ellis, M. A., Fairchild, I. J., Grinevald, J., and
Haff, P. K.: When did the Anthropocene begin? A mid-twentieth century
boundary
level is stratigraphically optimal, Quaternary Int., 383, 196–203,
2015. a
Zhou, T., Nijssen, B., Gao, H., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: The contribution of
reservoirs to global land surface water storage variations, J.
Hydrometeorol., 17, 309–325, 2016. a
Short summary
Moisture recycling is the atmospheric branch of the water cycle, including evaporation and precipitation. While the physical water cycle is well-understood, the social links among the recipients of precipitation back to the sources of evaporation are not. In this work, we develop a method to determine how these social connections unfold, using a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods, finding that there are distinct types of social connections with corresponding policy and management tools.
Moisture recycling is the atmospheric branch of the water cycle, including evaporation and...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint