Articles | Volume 8, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-387-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-387-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
31 May 2017
Research article |
| 31 May 2017
Refining multi-model projections of temperature extremes by evaluation against land–atmosphere coupling diagnostics
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, 8075 Zurich, Switzerland
Jakob Zscheischler
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, 8075 Zurich, Switzerland
Miguel D. Mahecha
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
Rene Orth
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, 8075 Zurich, Switzerland
Markus Reichstein
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
Martha Vogel
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, 8075 Zurich, Switzerland
Sonia I. Seneviratne
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, 8075 Zurich, Switzerland
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Climate change affects the interaction, dependence, and joint occurrence of climate extremes. Here we investigate the joint occurrence of pairs of river floods, droughts, heatwaves, crop failures, wildfires, and tropical cyclones in East Africa under past and future climate conditions. Our results show that, across all future warming scenarios, the frequency and spatial extent of these co-occurring extremes will increase in this region, particularly in areas close to the Nile and Congo rivers.
Martin Jung, Jacob Nelson, Mirco Migliavacca, Tarek El-Madany, Dario Papale, Markus Reichstein, Sophia Walther, and Thomas Wutzler
Biogeosciences, 21, 1827–1846, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1827-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1827-2024, 2024
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We present a methodology to detect inconsistencies in perhaps the most important data source for measurements of ecosystem–atmosphere carbon, water, and energy fluxes. We expect that the derived consistency flags will be relevant for data users and will help in improving our understanding of and our ability to model ecosystem–climate interactions.
Prajwal Khanal, Anne J. Hoek Van Dijke, Timo Schaffhauser, Wantong Li, Sinikka J. Paulus, Chunhui Zhan, and René Orth
Biogeosciences, 21, 1533–1547, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1533-2024, 2024
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Water availability is essential for vegetation functioning, but the depth of vegetation water uptake is largely unknown due to sparse ground measurements. This study correlates vegetation growth with soil moisture availability globally to infer vegetation water uptake depth using only satellite-based data. We find that the vegetation water uptake depth varies across climate regimes and vegetation types and also changes during dry months at a global scale.
Samuel Upton, Markus Reichstein, Fabian Gans, Wouter Peters, Basil Kraft, and Ana Bastos
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2555–2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2555-2024, 2024
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Data-driven eddy-covariance upscaled estimates of the global land–atmosphere net CO2 exchange (NEE) show important mismatches with regional and global estimates based on atmospheric information. To address this, we create a model with a dual constraint based on bottom-up eddy-covariance data and top-down atmospheric inversion data. Our model overcomes shortcomings of each approach, producing improved NEE estimates from local to global scale, helping to reduce uncertainty in the carbon budget.
Jacob A. Nelson, Sophia Walther, Fabian Gans, Basil Kraft, Ulrich Weber, Kimberly Novick, Nina Buchmann, Mirco Migliavacca, Georg Wohlfahrt, Ladislav Šigut, Andreas Ibrom, Dario Papale, Mathias Göckede, Gregory Duveiller, Alexander Knohl, Lukas Hörtnagl, Russell L. Scott, Weijie Zhang, Zayd Mahmoud Hamdi, Markus Reichstein, Sergio Aranda-Barranco, Jonas Ardö, Maarten Op de Beeck, Dave Billdesbach, David Bowling, Rosvel Bracho, Christian Brümmer, Gustau Camps-Valls, Shiping Chen, Jamie Rose Cleverly, Ankur Desai, Gang Dong, Tarek S. El-Madany, Eugenie Susanne Euskirchen, Iris Feigenwinter, Marta Galvagno, Giacomo Gerosa, Bert Gielen, Ignacio Goded, Sarah Goslee, Christopher Michael Gough, Bernard Heinesch, Kazuhito Ichii, Marcin Antoni Jackowicz-Korczynski, Anne Klosterhalfen, Sara Knox, Hideki Kobayashi, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Mika Korkiakoski, Ivan Mammarella, Gharun Mana, Riccardo Marzuoli, Roser Matamala, Stefan Metzger, Leonardo Montagnani, Giacomo Nicolini, Thomas O'Halloran, Jean-Marc Ourcival, Matthias Peichl, Elise Pendall, Borja Ruiz Reverter, Marilyn Roland, Simone Sabbatini, Torsten Sachs, Marius Schmidt, Christopher R. Schwalm, Ankit Shekhar, Richard Silberstein, Maria Lucia Silveira, Donatella Spano, Torbern Tagesson, Gianluca Tramontana, Carlo Trotta, Fabio Turco, Timo Vesala, Caroline Vincke, Domenico Vitale, Enrique R. Vivoni, Yi Wang, William Woodgate, Enrico A. Yepez, Junhui Zhang, Donatella Zona, and Martin Jung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-165, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-165, 2024
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The movement of water, carbon, and energy from the earth surface to the atmosphere, or flux, is an important process to understand that impacts all of our lives. Here we outline a method to estimate global water and CO2 fluxes based on direct measurements from site around the world called FLUXCOM-X. We go on to demonstrate how these new estimates of net CO2 uptake/loss, gross CO2 uptake, total water evaporation, and transpiration from plants compare to previous and independent estimates.
Marleen Pallandt, Marion Schrumpf, Holger Lange, Markus Reichstein, Lin Yu, and Bernhard Ahrens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-186, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-186, 2024
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As soils get warmer due to climate change, SOC decomposes faster because of higher microbial activity, but only with sufficient soil moisture. We modelled how microbes decompose plant litter and microbial residues at different soil depths. We found that deep soil layers are more sensitive than topsoils. SOC is lost from the soil with warming, but this can be mitigated or worsened depending on the type of litter and its sensitivity to temperature. Droughts can reduce warming-induced SOC losses.
Richard Nair, Yunpeng Luo, Tarek El-Madany, Victor Rolo, Javier Pacheco-Labrador, Silvia Caldararu, Kendalynn A. Morris, Marion Schrumpf, Arnaud Carrara, Gerardo Moreno, Markus Reichstein, and Mirco Migliavacca
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2434, 2023
Preprint archived
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We studied a Mediterranean ecosystem to understand carbon uptake efficiency and its controls. These ecosystems face potential nitrogen-phosphorus imbalances due to pollution. Analysing six years of carbon data, we assessed controls at different timeframes. This is crucial for predicting such vulnerable regions. Our findings revealed N limitation on C uptake, not N:P imbalance, and strong influence of water availability. whether drought or wetness promoted net C uptake depended on timescale.
Francesco Martinuzzi, Miguel D. Mahecha, Gustau Camps-Valls, David Montero, Tristan Williams, and Karin Mora
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2368, 2023
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We investigated how machine learning can forecast extreme vegetation responses to weather. Examining four models, no single one stood out as the best, though "echo state networks" showed minor advantages. Our results indicate that while these tools are able to generally model vegetation states, they face challenges under extreme conditions. This underlines the potential of artificial intelligence in ecosystem modeling, also pinpointing areas that need further research.
Theertha Kariyathan, Ana Bastos, Julia Marshall, Wouter Peters, Pieter Tans, and Markus Reichstein
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3299–3312, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3299-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3299-2023, 2023
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The timing and duration of the carbon uptake period (CUP) are sensitive to the occurrence of major phenological events, which are influenced by recent climate change. This study presents an ensemble-based approach for quantifying the timing and duration of the CUP and their uncertainty when derived from atmospheric CO2 measurements with noise and gaps. The CUP metrics derived with the approach are more robust and have less uncertainty than when estimated with the conventional methods.
Hoontaek Lee, Martin Jung, Nuno Carvalhais, Tina Trautmann, Basil Kraft, Markus Reichstein, Matthias Forkel, and Sujan Koirala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1531–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1531-2023, 2023
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We spatially attribute the variance in global terrestrial water storage (TWS) interannual variability (IAV) and its modeling error with two data-driven hydrological models. We find error hotspot regions that show a disproportionately large significance in the global mismatch and the association of the error regions with a smaller-scale lateral convergence of water. Our findings imply that TWS IAV modeling can be efficiently improved by focusing on model representations for the error hotspots.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
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A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Iris Elisabeth de Vries, Sebastian Sippel, Angeline Greene Pendergrass, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 81–100, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-81-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-81-2023, 2023
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Precipitation change is an important consequence of climate change, but it is hard to detect and quantify. Our intuitive method yields robust and interpretable detection of forced precipitation change in three observational datasets for global mean and extreme precipitation, but the different observational datasets show different magnitudes of forced change. Assessment and reduction of uncertainties surrounding forced precipitation change are important for future projections and adaptation.
Manal Lam'barki, Wantong Li, Sungmin O, Chunhui Zhan, and Rene Orth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-404, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2022-404, 2022
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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We investigate the main drivers of high river flows in near-natural European catchments. While there are a lot of previous research in this area, the understanding of the relative relevance of high flow drivers other than precipitation is understudied. We find that the secondary drivers of high river flows are very diverse and become more relevant for more extreme events. This illustrates the necessity of flood management by considering a multitude of drivers in the context of climate change.
Shijie Jiang, Emanuele Bevacqua, and Jakob Zscheischler
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6339–6359, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6339-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6339-2022, 2022
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Using a novel explainable machine learning approach, we investigated the contributions of precipitation, temperature, and day length to different peak discharges, thereby uncovering three primary flooding mechanisms widespread in European catchments. The results indicate that flooding mechanisms have changed in numerous catchments over the past 70 years. The study highlights the potential of artificial intelligence in revealing complex changes in extreme events related to climate change.
Natacha Le Grix, Jakob Zscheischler, Keith B. Rodgers, Ryohei Yamaguchi, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 19, 5807–5835, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5807-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5807-2022, 2022
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Compound events threaten marine ecosystems. Here, we investigate the potentially harmful combination of marine heatwaves with low phytoplankton productivity. Using satellite-based observations, we show that these compound events are frequent in the low latitudes. We then investigate the drivers of these compound events using Earth system models. The models share similar drivers in the low latitudes but disagree in the high latitudes due to divergent factors limiting phytoplankton production.
Sinikka Jasmin Paulus, Tarek Sebastian El-Madany, René Orth, Anke Hildebrandt, Thomas Wutzler, Arnaud Carrara, Gerardo Moreno, Oscar Perez-Priego, Olaf Kolle, Markus Reichstein, and Mirco Migliavacca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6263–6287, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6263-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6263-2022, 2022
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In this study, we analyze small inputs of water to ecosystems such as fog, dew, and adsorption of vapor. To measure them, we use a scaling system and later test our attribution of different water fluxes to weight changes. We found that they occur frequently during 1 year in a dry summer ecosystem. In each season, a different flux seems dominant, but they all mainly occur during the night. Therefore, they could be important for the biosphere because rain is unevenly distributed over the year.
Na Li, Sebastian Sippel, Alexander J. Winkler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Markus Reichstein, and Ana Bastos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1505–1533, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1505-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1505-2022, 2022
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Quantifying the imprint of large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics and associated carbon cycle responses is key to improving our understanding of carbon cycle dynamics. Using a statistical model that relies on spatiotemporal sea level pressure as a proxy for large-scale atmospheric circulation, we quantify the fraction of interannual variability in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and the land CO2 sink that are driven by atmospheric circulation variability.
Melissa Ruiz-Vásquez, Sungmin O, Alexander Brenning, Randal D. Koster, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Ulrich Weber, Gabriele Arduini, Ana Bastos, Markus Reichstein, and René Orth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1451–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1451-2022, 2022
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Subseasonal forecasts facilitate early warning of extreme events; however their predictability sources are not fully explored. We find that global temperature forecast errors in many regions are related to climate variables such as solar radiation and precipitation, as well as land surface variables such as soil moisture and evaporative fraction. A better representation of these variables in the forecasting and data assimilation systems can support the accuracy of temperature forecasts.
Xin Yu, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Michael Bahn, Anne Klosterhalfen, Alexander Knohl, Franziska Koebsch, Mirco Migliavacca, Martina Mund, Jacob A. Nelson, Benjamin D. Stocker, Sophia Walther, and Ana Bastos
Biogeosciences, 19, 4315–4329, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4315-2022, 2022
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Identifying drought legacy effects is challenging because they are superimposed on variability driven by climate conditions in the recovery period. We develop a residual-based approach to quantify legacies on gross primary productivity (GPP) from eddy covariance data. The GPP reduction due to legacy effects is comparable to the concurrent effects at two sites in Germany, which reveals the importance of legacy effects. Our novel methodology can be used to quantify drought legacies elsewhere.
D. Montero, C. Aybar, M. D. Mahecha, and S. Wieneke
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-4-W1-2022, 301–306, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W1-2022-301-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W1-2022-301-2022, 2022
Alexandre Tuel, Bettina Schaefli, Jakob Zscheischler, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2649–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, 2022
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River discharge is strongly influenced by the temporal structure of precipitation. Here, we show how extreme precipitation events that occur a few days or weeks after a previous event have a larger effect on river discharge than events occurring in isolation. Windows of 2 weeks or less between events have the most impact. Similarly, periods of persistent high discharge tend to be associated with the occurrence of several extreme precipitation events in close succession.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
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The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Elisabeth Tschumi, Sebastian Lienert, Karin van der Wiel, Fortunat Joos, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 19, 1979–1993, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1979-2022, 2022
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Droughts and heatwaves are expected to occur more often in the future, but their effects on land vegetation and the carbon cycle are poorly understood. We use six climate scenarios with differing extreme occurrences and a vegetation model to analyse these effects. Tree coverage and associated plant productivity increase under a climate with no extremes. Frequent co-occurring droughts and heatwaves decrease plant productivity more than the combined effects of single droughts or heatwaves.
Basil Kraft, Martin Jung, Marco Körner, Sujan Koirala, and Markus Reichstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1579–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1579-2022, 2022
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We present a physics-aware machine learning model of the global hydrological cycle. As the model uses neural networks under the hood, the simulations of the water cycle are learned from data, and yet they are informed and constrained by physical knowledge. The simulated patterns lie within the range of existing hydrological models and are plausible. The hybrid modeling approach has the potential to tackle key environmental questions from a novel perspective.
J. Pacheco-Labrador, U. Weber, X. Ma, M. D. Mahecha, N. Carvalhais, C. Wirth, A. Huth, F. J. Bohn, G. Kraemer, U. Heiden, FunDivEUROPE members, and M. Migliavacca
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVI-1-W1-2021, 49–55, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVI-1-W1-2021-49-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVI-1-W1-2021-49-2022, 2022
Josephin Kroll, Jasper M. C. Denissen, Mirco Migliavacca, Wantong Li, Anke Hildebrandt, and Rene Orth
Biogeosciences, 19, 477–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-477-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-477-2022, 2022
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Plant growth relies on having access to energy (solar radiation) and water (soil moisture). This energy and water availability is impacted by weather extremes, like heat waves and droughts, which will occur more frequently in response to climate change. In this context, we analysed global satellite data to detect in which regions extreme plant growth is controlled by energy or water. We find that extreme plant growth is associated with temperature- or soil-moisture-related extremes.
Ana Bastos, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Sönke Zaehle, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Pierre Gentine, Emilie Joetzjer, Sebastian Lienert, Tammas Loughran, Patrick C. McGuire, Sungmin O, Julia Pongratz, and Stephen Sitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1015–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, 2021
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Temperate biomes in Europe are not prone to recurrent dry and hot conditions in summer. However, these conditions may become more frequent in the coming decades. Because stress conditions can leave legacies for many years, this may result in reduced ecosystem resilience under recurrent stress. We assess vegetation vulnerability to the hot and dry summers in 2018 and 2019 in Europe and find the important role of inter-annual legacy effects from 2018 in modulating the impacts of the 2019 event.
Christina Heinze-Deml, Sebastian Sippel, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, and Nicolai Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4977–4999, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4977-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4977-2021, 2021
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Quantifying dynamical and thermodynamical components of regional precipitation change is a key challenge in climate science. We introduce a novel statistical model (Latent Linear Adjustment Autoencoder) that combines the flexibility of deep neural networks with the robustness advantages of linear regression. The method enables estimation of the contribution of a coarse-scale atmospheric circulation proxy to daily precipitation at high resolution and in a spatially coherent manner.
Roberto Villalobos-Herrera, Emanuele Bevacqua, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Graeme Auld, Laura Crocetti, Bilyana Mircheva, Minh Ha, Jakob Zscheischler, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1867–1885, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1867-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1867-2021, 2021
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Climate hazards may be caused by events which have multiple drivers. Here we present a method to break down climate model biases in hazard indicators down to the bias caused by each driving variable. Using simplified fire and heat stress indicators driven by temperature and relative humidity as examples, we show how multivariate indicators may have complex biases and that the relationship between driving variables is a source of bias that must be considered in climate model bias corrections.
Christopher Krich, Mirco Migliavacca, Diego G. Miralles, Guido Kraemer, Tarek S. El-Madany, Markus Reichstein, Jakob Runge, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 18, 2379–2404, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2379-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2379-2021, 2021
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Ecosystems and the atmosphere interact with each other. These interactions determine e.g. the water and carbon fluxes and thus are crucial to understand climate change effects. We analysed the interactions for many ecosystems across the globe, showing that very different ecosystems can have similar interactions with the atmosphere. Meteorological conditions seem to be the strongest interaction-shaping factor. This means that common principles can be identified to describe ecosystem behaviour.
Jun Li, Zhaoli Wang, Xushu Wu, Jakob Zscheischler, Shenglian Guo, and Xiaohong Chen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1587–1601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1587-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1587-2021, 2021
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We introduce a daily-scale index, termed the standardized compound drought and heat index (SCDHI), to measure the key features of compound dry-hot conditions. SCDHI can not only monitor the long-term compound dry-hot events, but can also capture such events at sub-monthly scale and reflect the related vegetation activity impacts. The index can provide a new tool to quantify sub-monthly characteristics of compound dry-hot events, which are vital for releasing early and timely warning.
Natacha Le Grix, Jakob Zscheischler, Charlotte Laufkötter, Cecile S. Rousseaux, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 18, 2119–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2119-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2119-2021, 2021
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Marine ecosystems could suffer severe damage from the co-occurrence of a marine heat wave with extremely low chlorophyll concentration. Here, we provide a first assessment of compound marine heat wave and
low-chlorophyll events in the global ocean from 1998 to 2018. We reveal hotspots of these compound events in the equatorial Pacific and in the Arabian Sea and show that they mostly occur in summer at high latitudes and their frequency is modulated by large-scale modes of climate variability.
Johannes Vogel, Pauline Rivoire, Cristina Deidda, Leila Rahimi, Christoph A. Sauter, Elisabeth Tschumi, Karin van der Wiel, Tianyi Zhang, and Jakob Zscheischler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 151–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, 2021
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We present a statistical approach for automatically identifying multiple drivers of extreme impacts based on LASSO regression. We apply the approach to simulated crop failure in the Northern Hemisphere and identify which meteorological variables including climate extreme indices and which seasons are relevant to predict crop failure. The presented approach can help unravel compounding drivers in high-impact events and could be applied to other impacts such as wildfires or flooding.
Jakob Zscheischler, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius, Sebastian Engelke, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, 2021
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Compound extremes such as heavy precipitation and extreme winds can lead to large damage. To date it is unclear how well climate models represent such compound extremes. Here we present a new measure to assess differences in the dependence structure of bivariate extremes. This measure is applied to assess differences in the dependence of compound precipitation and wind extremes between three model simulations and one reanalysis dataset in a domain in central Europe.
Milan Flach, Alexander Brenning, Fabian Gans, Markus Reichstein, Sebastian Sippel, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 18, 39–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-39-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-39-2021, 2021
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Drought and heat events affect the uptake and sequestration of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. We study the impact of droughts and heatwaves on the uptake of CO2 of different vegetation types at the global scale. We find that agricultural areas are generally strongly affected. Forests instead are not particularly sensitive to the events under scrutiny. This implies different water management strategies of forests but also a lack of sensitivity to remote-sensing-derived vegetation activity.
Naixin Fan, Sujan Koirala, Markus Reichstein, Martin Thurner, Valerio Avitabile, Maurizio Santoro, Bernhard Ahrens, Ulrich Weber, and Nuno Carvalhais
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2517–2536, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2517-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2517-2020, 2020
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The turnover time of terrestrial carbon (τ) controls the global carbon cycle–climate feedback. In this study, we provide a new, updated ensemble of diagnostic terrestrial carbon turnover times and associated uncertainties on a global scale. Despite the large variation in both magnitude and spatial patterns of τ, we identified robust features in the spatial patterns of τ which could contribute to uncertainty reductions in future projections of the carbon cycle–climate feedback.
Andreia Filipa Silva Ribeiro, Ana Russo, Célia Marina Gouveia, Patrícia Páscoa, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 17, 4815–4830, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4815-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4815-2020, 2020
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This study investigates the impacts of compound dry and hot extremes on crop yields, namely wheat and barley, over two regions in Spain dominated by rainfed agriculture. We provide estimates of the conditional probability of crop loss under compound dry and hot conditions, which could be an important tool for responsible authorities to mitigate the impacts magnified by the interactions between the different hazards.
B. Kraft, M. Jung, M. Körner, and M. Reichstein
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B2-2020, 1537–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B2-2020-1537-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B2-2020-1537-2020, 2020
Daniel E. Pabon-Moreno, Talie Musavi, Mirco Migliavacca, Markus Reichstein, Christine Römermann, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 17, 3991–4006, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3991-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3991-2020, 2020
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Ecosystem CO2 uptake changes in time depending on climate conditions. In this study, we analyze how different climate variables affect the timing when CO2 uptake is at a maximum (DOYGPPmax). We found that the joint effects of radiation, temperature, and vapor pressure deficit are the most relevant controlling factors of DOYGPPmax and that if they increase, DOYGPPmax will happen earlier. These results help us to better understand how CO2 uptake could be affected by climate change.
Ali Fallah, Sungmin O, and Rene Orth
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3725–3735, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3725-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3725-2020, 2020
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We find that simulated runoff values are highly dependent on the accuracy of precipitation inputs. In contrast, simulated evapotranspiration is generally much less influenced in our comparatively wet study region. We also find that the impact of precipitation uncertainty on simulated runoff increases towards wetter regions, while the opposite is observed in the case of evapotranspiration.
René Orth, Georgia Destouni, Martin Jung, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 17, 2647–2656, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2647-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2647-2020, 2020
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Drought duration is a key control of the large-scale biospheric drought response.
Thereby, the vegetation responds linearly to drought duration at large spatial scales.
The slope of the linear relationship between the vegetation drought response and drought duration is steeper in drier climates.
Guido Kraemer, Gustau Camps-Valls, Markus Reichstein, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 17, 2397–2424, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2397-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2397-2020, 2020
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To closely monitor the state of our planet, we require systems that can monitor
the observation of many different properties at the same time. We create
indicators that resemble the behavior of many different simultaneous
observations. We apply the method to create indicators representing the
Earth's biosphere. The indicators show a productivity gradient and a water
gradient. The resulting indicators can detect a large number of changes and
extremes in the Earth system.
Hendrik Andersen, Jan Cermak, Julia Fuchs, Peter Knippertz, Marco Gaetani, Julian Quinting, Sebastian Sippel, and Roland Vogt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3415–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3415-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3415-2020, 2020
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Fog and low clouds (FLCs) are an essential but poorly understood element of Namib regional climate. Here, a satellite-based data set of FLCs in central Namib, reanalysis data, and back trajectories are used to systematically analyze conditions when FLCs occur. Synoptic-scale mechanisms are identified that influence the formation of FLCs and the onshore advection of marine boundary-layer air masses. The findings lead to a new conceptual model of mechanisms that drive FLC variability in the Namib.
Martin Jung, Christopher Schwalm, Mirco Migliavacca, Sophia Walther, Gustau Camps-Valls, Sujan Koirala, Peter Anthoni, Simon Besnard, Paul Bodesheim, Nuno Carvalhais, Frédéric Chevallier, Fabian Gans, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Philipp Köhler, Kazuhito Ichii, Atul K. Jain, Junzhi Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Jacob A. Nelson, Michael O'Sullivan, Martijn Pallandt, Dario Papale, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Christian Rödenbeck, Stephen Sitch, Gianluca Tramontana, Anthony Walker, Ulrich Weber, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 17, 1343–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, 2020
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We test the approach of producing global gridded carbon fluxes based on combining machine learning with local measurements, remote sensing and climate data. We show that we can reproduce seasonal variations in carbon assimilated by plants via photosynthesis and in ecosystem net carbon balance. The ecosystem’s mean carbon balance and carbon flux trends require cautious interpretation. The analysis paves the way for future improvements of the data-driven assessment of carbon fluxes.
Christopher Krich, Jakob Runge, Diego G. Miralles, Mirco Migliavacca, Oscar Perez-Priego, Tarek El-Madany, Arnaud Carrara, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 17, 1033–1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1033-2020, 2020
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Causal inference promises new insight into biosphere–atmosphere interactions using time series only. To understand the behaviour of a specific method on such data, we used artificial and observation-based data. The observed structures are very interpretable and reveal certain ecosystem-specific behaviour, as only a few relevant links remain, in contrast to pure correlation techniques. Thus, causal inference allows to us gain well-constrained insights into processes and interactions.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Gunnar Brandt, Rune Christiansen, Sarah E. Cornell, Normann Fomferra, Guido Kraemer, Jonas Peters, Paul Bodesheim, Gustau Camps-Valls, Jonathan F. Donges, Wouter Dorigo, Lina M. Estupinan-Suarez, Victor H. Gutierrez-Velez, Martin Gutwin, Martin Jung, Maria C. Londoño, Diego G. Miralles, Phillip Papastefanou, and Markus Reichstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 201–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, 2020
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The ever-growing availability of data streams on different subsystems of the Earth brings unprecedented scientific opportunities. However, researching a data-rich world brings novel challenges. We present the concept of
Earth system data cubesto study the complex dynamics of multiple climate and ecosystem variables across space and time. Using a series of example studies, we highlight the potential of effectively considering the full multivariate nature of processes in the Earth system.
Nora Linscheid, Lina M. Estupinan-Suarez, Alexander Brenning, Nuno Carvalhais, Felix Cremer, Fabian Gans, Anja Rammig, Markus Reichstein, Carlos A. Sierra, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 17, 945–962, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-945-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-945-2020, 2020
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Vegetation typically responds to variation in temperature and rainfall within days. Yet seasonal changes in meteorological conditions, as well as decadal climate variability, additionally shape the state of ecosystems. It remains unclear how vegetation responds to climate variability on these different timescales. We find that the vegetation response to climate variability depends on the timescale considered. This scale dependency should be considered for modeling land–atmosphere interactions.
Javier Pacheco-Labrador, Tarek S. El-Madany, M. Pilar Martin, Rosario Gonzalez-Cascon, Arnaud Carrara, Gerardo Moreno, Oscar Perez-Priego, Tiana Hammer, Heiko Moossen, Kathrin Henkel, Olaf Kolle, David Martini, Vicente Burchard, Christiaan van der Tol, Karl Segl, Markus Reichstein, and Mirco Migliavacca
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-501, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-501, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The new generation of sensors on-board satellites have the potential to provide richer information about the function of vegetation than before. This information, nowadays missing, is fundamental to improve our understanding and prediction of carbon and water cycles, and therefore to anticipate effects and responses to Climate Change. In this manuscript we propose a method to exploit the data provided by these satellites to successfully obtain this information key to face Climate Change.
Gionata Ghiggi, Vincent Humphrey, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Lukas Gudmundsson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1655–1674, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1655-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1655-2019, 2019
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Freshwater resources are of high societal relevance and understanding their past variability is vital to water management in the context of current and future climatic change. This study introduces GRUN: the first global gridded monthly reconstruction of runoff covering the period from 1902 to 2014. The dataset agrees on average much better with the streamflow observations than an ensemble of 13 state-of-the-art global hydrological models and will foster the understanding of freshwater dynamics.
Paul C. Stoy, Tarek S. El-Madany, Joshua B. Fisher, Pierre Gentine, Tobias Gerken, Stephen P. Good, Anne Klosterhalfen, Shuguang Liu, Diego G. Miralles, Oscar Perez-Priego, Angela J. Rigden, Todd H. Skaggs, Georg Wohlfahrt, Ray G. Anderson, A. Miriam J. Coenders-Gerrits, Martin Jung, Wouter H. Maes, Ivan Mammarella, Matthias Mauder, Mirco Migliavacca, Jacob A. Nelson, Rafael Poyatos, Markus Reichstein, Russell L. Scott, and Sebastian Wolf
Biogeosciences, 16, 3747–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3747-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3747-2019, 2019
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Key findings are the nearly optimal response of T to atmospheric water vapor pressure deficits across methods and scales. Additionally, the notion that T / ET intermittently approaches 1, which is a basis for many partitioning methods, does not hold for certain methods and ecosystems. To better constrain estimates of E and T from combined ET measurements, we propose a combination of independent measurement techniques to better constrain E and T at the ecosystem scale.
Inne Vanderkelen, Jakob Zschleischler, Lukas Gudmundsson, Klaus Keuler, Francois Rineau, Natalie Beenaerts, Jaco Vangronsveld, and Wim Thiery
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-267, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-267, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Sven Boese, Martin Jung, Nuno Carvalhais, Adriaan J. Teuling, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 16, 2557–2572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2557-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2557-2019, 2019
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This study examines how limited water availability during droughts affects water-use efficiency. This metric describes how much carbon an ecosystem can assimilate for each unit of water lost by transpiration. We test how well different water-use efficiency models can capture the dynamics of transpiration decrease due to increased soil-water limitation. Accounting for the interacting effects of radiation and water limitation is necessary to accurately predict transpiration during these periods.
Richard K. F. Nair, Kendalynn A. Morris, Martin Hertel, Yunpeng Luo, Gerardo Moreno, Markus Reichstein, Marion Schrumpf, and Mirco Migliavacca
Biogeosciences, 16, 1883–1901, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1883-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1883-2019, 2019
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We investigated how nutrient availability affects seasonal timing of root growth and death in a Spanish savanna, adapted to a long summer drought. We found that nitrogen (N) additions led to more root biomass but number of roots was higher with N and phosphorus together. These effects were strongly affected by the time of year. In autumn root growth occurred after leaf production. This has implications for how we understand biomass production and carbon uptake in these systems.
Mathias Hauser, Wim Thiery, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 157–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-157-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-157-2019, 2019
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We develop a method to keep the amount of water in the soil at the present-day level, using only local water sources in a global climate model. This leads to less drying over many land areas, but also decreases river runoff. We find that temperature extremes in the 21st century decrease substantially using our method. This provides a new perspective on how land water can influence regional climate and introduces land water management as potential tool for local mitigation of climate change.
Xiaolu Tang, Nuno Carvalhais, Catarina Moura, Bernhard Ahrens, Sujan Koirala, Shaohui Fan, Fengying Guan, Wenjie Zhang, Sicong Gao, Vincenzo Magliulo, Pauline Buysse, Shibin Liu, Guo Chen, Wunian Yang, Zhen Yu, Jingjing Liang, Leilei Shi, Shenyan Pu, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-37, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-37, 2019
Preprint withdrawn
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Vegetation CUE is a key measure of carbon transfer from the atmosphere to terrestrial biomass. This study modelled global CUE with published observations using random forest. CUE varied with ecosystem types and spatially decreased with latitude, challenging the previous conclusion that CUE was independent of environmental controls. Our results emphasize a better understanding of environmental controls on CUE to reduce uncertainties in prognostic land-process model simulations.
Jakob Zscheischler, Erich M. Fischer, and Stefan Lange
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 31–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-31-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-31-2019, 2019
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Many climate models have biases in different variables throughout the world. Adjusting these biases is necessary for estimating climate impacts. Here we demonstrate that widely used univariate bias adjustment methods do not work well for multivariate impacts. We illustrate this problem using fire risk and heat stress as impact indicators. Using an approach that adjusts not only biases in the individual climate variables but also biases in the correlation between them can resolve these problems.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Martin Hirschi, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1217–1234, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1217-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1217-2018, 2018
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Changing amounts of water in the soil can have a strong impact on atmospheric temperatures. We present a theoretical approach that can be used to quantify the effect that soil moisture has on temperature and validate it using climate model simulations in which soil moisture is prescribed. This theoretical approach also allows us to study the soil moisture effect on temperature in standard climate models, even if they do not provide dedicated soil moisture simulations.
Milan Flach, Sebastian Sippel, Fabian Gans, Ana Bastos, Alexander Brenning, Markus Reichstein, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 15, 6067–6085, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6067-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6067-2018, 2018
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Northern forests enhanced their productivity during and before the 2010 Russian mega heatwave. We scrutinize this issue with a novel type of multivariate extreme event detection approach. Forests compensate for 54 % of the carbon losses in agricultural ecosystems due to vulnerable conditions in spring and better water management in summer. The findings highlight the importance of forests in mitigating climate change, while not alleviating the consequences of extreme events for food security.
Martha M. Vogel, Jakob Zscheischler, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1107–1125, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1107-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1107-2018, 2018
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Climate change projections of temperature extremes are particularly uncertain in central Europe. We demonstrate that varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks in current climate models leads to an enhancement of model differences; thus, they can explain the large uncertainties in extreme temperature projections. Using an observation-based constraint, we show that the strong drying and large increase in temperatures exhibited by models on the hottest day in central Europe are highly unlikely.
Thomas Wutzler, Antje Lucas-Moffat, Mirco Migliavacca, Jürgen Knauer, Kerstin Sickel, Ladislav Šigut, Olaf Menzer, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 15, 5015–5030, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5015-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5015-2018, 2018
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Net fluxes of carbon dioxide at the ecosystem level measured by eddy covariance are a main source for understanding biosphere–atmosphere interactions. However, there is a need for more usable and extensible tools for post-processing steps of the half-hourly flux data. Therefore, we developed the REddyProc package, providing data filtering, gap filling, and flux partitioning. The extensible functions are compatible with state-of-the-art tools but allow easier integration in extended analysis.
Paul Bodesheim, Martin Jung, Fabian Gans, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Markus Reichstein
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1327–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1327-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1327-2018, 2018
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We provide continuous half-hourly carbon and energy fluxes for 2001 to 2014 at 0.5° spatial resolution, which allows for analyzing diurnal cycles globally. The data set contains four fluxes: gross primary production (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent heat (LE), and sensible heat (H). In addition, we provide a derived product that only contains monthly average diurnal cycles but which also enables us to study the important characteristics of subdaily patterns at a global scale.
Donghai Wu, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Alan K. Knapp, Kevin Wilcox, Michael Bahn, Melinda D. Smith, Sara Vicca, Simone Fatichi, Jakob Zscheischler, Yue He, Xiangyi Li, Akihiko Ito, Almut Arneth, Anna Harper, Anna Ukkola, Athanasios Paschalis, Benjamin Poulter, Changhui Peng, Daniel Ricciuto, David Reinthaler, Guangsheng Chen, Hanqin Tian, Hélène Genet, Jiafu Mao, Johannes Ingrisch, Julia E. S. M. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Lena R. Boysen, Markus Kautz, Michael Schmitt, Patrick Meir, Qiuan Zhu, Roland Hasibeder, Sebastian Sippel, Shree R. S. Dangal, Stephen Sitch, Xiaoying Shi, Yingping Wang, Yiqi Luo, Yongwen Liu, and Shilong Piao
Biogeosciences, 15, 3421–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, 2018
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Our results indicate that most ecosystem models do not capture the observed asymmetric responses under normal precipitation conditions, suggesting an overestimate of the drought effects and/or underestimate of the watering impacts on primary productivity, which may be the result of inadequate representation of key eco-hydrological processes. Collaboration between modelers and site investigators needs to be strengthened to improve the specific processes in ecosystem models in following studies.
Jacob A. Nelson, Nuno Carvalhais, Mirco Migliavacca, Markus Reichstein, and Martin Jung
Biogeosciences, 15, 2433–2447, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2433-2018, 2018
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Plants have typical daily carbon uptake and water loss cycles. However, these cycles may change under periods of duress, such as water limitation. Here we identify two types of patterns in response to water limitations: a tendency to lose more water in the morning than afternoon and a decoupling of the carbon and water cycles. The findings show differences in responses by trees and grasses and suggest that morning shifts may be more efficient at gaining carbon per unit water used.
Hong Xuan Do, Lukas Gudmundsson, Michael Leonard, and Seth Westra
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 765–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-765-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-765-2018, 2018
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The production of 30 959 daily streamflow time series in the Global Streamflow and Metadata Archive (GSIM) project is presented. The paper also describes the development of three metadata products that are freely available. Having collated an unprecedented number of stations and associated metadata, GSIM can be used to advance large-scale hydrological research and improve understanding of the global water cycle.
Lukas Gudmundsson, Hong Xuan Do, Michael Leonard, and Seth Westra
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 787–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-787-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-787-2018, 2018
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Time-series indices characterizing streamflow at annual, seasonal and monthly resolution at more than 30 000 stations around the world are presented. The data belong to the Global Streamflow and Metadata Archive (GSIM) and allow for an assessment of water balance components, hydrological extremes and the seasonality of water availability. The quality of the data is tested using automated methods to aid potential users to gauge the suitability of the data for specific applications.
Peter Greve, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 227–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-227-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-227-2018, 2018
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Assessing projected hydroclimatological changes is crucial, but associated with large uncertainties. We statistically assess here the response of precipitation and water availability to global temperature change, enabling us to estimate the significance of drying/wetting tendencies under anthropogenic climate change. We further show that opting for a 1.5 K warming target just slightly influences the mean response but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes.
Jannis von Buttlar, Jakob Zscheischler, Anja Rammig, Sebastian Sippel, Markus Reichstein, Alexander Knohl, Martin Jung, Olaf Menzer, M. Altaf Arain, Nina Buchmann, Alessandro Cescatti, Damiano Gianelle, Gerard Kiely, Beverly E. Law, Vincenzo Magliulo, Hank Margolis, Harry McCaughey, Lutz Merbold, Mirco Migliavacca, Leonardo Montagnani, Walter Oechel, Marian Pavelka, Matthias Peichl, Serge Rambal, Antonio Raschi, Russell L. Scott, Francesco P. Vaccari, Eva van Gorsel, Andrej Varlagin, Georg Wohlfahrt, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 15, 1293–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1293-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1293-2018, 2018
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Our work systematically quantifies extreme heat and drought event impacts on gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration globally across a wide range of ecosystems. We show that heat extremes typically increased mainly respiration whereas drought decreased both fluxes. Combined heat and drought extremes had opposing effects offsetting each other for respiration, but there were also strong reductions in GPP and hence the strongest reductions in the ecosystems carbon sink capacity.
Richard Wartenburger, Martin Hirschi, Markus G. Donat, Peter Greve, Andy J. Pitman, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3609–3634, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3609-2017, 2017
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This article analyses regional changes in climate extremes as a function of projected changes in global mean temperature. We introduce the DROUGHT-HEAT Regional Climate Atlas, an interactive tool to analyse and display a range of well-established climate extremes and water-cycle indices and their changes as a function of global warming. Readers are encouraged to use the online tool for visualization of specific indices of interest, e.g. to assess their response to 1.5 or 2 °C global warming.
Iulia Ilie, Peter Dittrich, Nuno Carvalhais, Martin Jung, Andreas Heinemeyer, Mirco Migliavacca, James I. L. Morison, Sebastian Sippel, Jens-Arne Subke, Matthew Wilkinson, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3519–3545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3519-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3519-2017, 2017
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Accurate representation of land-atmosphere carbon fluxes is essential for future climate projections, although some of the responses of CO2 fluxes to climate often remain uncertain. The increase in available data allows for new approaches in their modelling. We automatically developed models for ecosystem and soil carbon respiration using a machine learning approach. When compared with established respiration models, we found that they are better in prediction as well as offering new insights.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Sebastian Sippel, Jonathan F. Donges, Thomas Kaminski, Stefan Metzger, Mirco Migliavacca, Dario Papale, Anja Rammig, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 14, 4255–4277, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4255-2017, 2017
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We investigate the likelihood of ecological in situ networks to detect and monitor the impact of extreme events in the terrestrial biosphere.
Jakob Zscheischler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Valerio Avitabile, Leonardo Calle, Nuno Carvalhais, Philippe Ciais, Fabian Gans, Nicolas Gruber, Jens Hartmann, Martin Herold, Kazuhito Ichii, Martin Jung, Peter Landschützer, Goulven G. Laruelle, Ronny Lauerwald, Dario Papale, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Poulter, Deepak Ray, Pierre Regnier, Christian Rödenbeck, Rosa M. Roman-Cuesta, Christopher Schwalm, Gianluca Tramontana, Alexandra Tyukavina, Riccardo Valentini, Guido van der Werf, Tristram O. West, Julie E. Wolf, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 14, 3685–3703, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3685-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3685-2017, 2017
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Here we synthesize a wide range of global spatiotemporal observational data on carbon exchanges between the Earth surface and the atmosphere. A key challenge was to consistently combining observational products of terrestrial and aquatic surfaces. Our primary goal is to identify today’s key uncertainties and observational shortcomings that would need to be addressed in future measurement campaigns or expansions of in situ observatories.
Milan Flach, Fabian Gans, Alexander Brenning, Joachim Denzler, Markus Reichstein, Erik Rodner, Sebastian Bathiany, Paul Bodesheim, Yanira Guanche, Sebastian Sippel, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 677–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-677-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-677-2017, 2017
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Anomalies and extremes are often detected using univariate peak-over-threshold approaches in the geoscience community. The Earth system is highly multivariate. We compare eight multivariate anomaly detection algorithms and combinations of data preprocessing. We identify three anomaly detection algorithms that outperform univariate extreme event detection approaches. The workflows have the potential to reveal novelties in data. Remarks on their application to real Earth observations are provided.
Jakob Zscheischler, Rene Orth, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Biogeosciences, 14, 3309–3320, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3309-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3309-2017, 2017
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We use newly established methods to compute bivariate return periods of temperature and precipitation and relate those to crop yield variability in Europe. Most often, crop yields are lower when it is hot and dry and higher when it is cold and wet. The variability in crop yields along a specific climate gradient can be captured well by return periods aligned with these gradients. This study provides new possibilities for investigating the relationship between crop yield variability and climate.
Jaap Schellekens, Emanuel Dutra, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Albert van Dijk, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Marie Minvielle, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Bertrand Decharme, Stephanie Eisner, Gabriel Fink, Martina Flörke, Stefanie Peßenteiner, Rens van Beek, Jan Polcher, Hylke Beck, René Orth, Ben Calton, Sophia Burke, Wouter Dorigo, and Graham P. Weedon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 389–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-389-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-389-2017, 2017
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The dataset combines the results of 10 global models that describe the global continental water cycle. The data can be used as input for water resources studies, flood frequency studies etc. at different scales from continental to medium-scale catchments. We compared the results with earth observation data and conclude that most uncertainties are found in snow-dominated regions and tropical rainforest and monsoon regions.
Sven Boese, Martin Jung, Nuno Carvalhais, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 14, 3015–3026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3015-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3015-2017, 2017
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For plants, the ratio of carbon uptake to water loss by transpiration is usually thought to depend on characteristic properties (their adaption to water scarcity) and the dryness of the atmosphere at any given moment. We show that, on the ecosystem scale, radiation has an independent effect on this ratio that had not been previously considered. When including this variable in models, predictions of transpiration improve considerably.
Hylke E. Beck, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Ad de Roo, Emanuel Dutra, Gabriel Fink, Rene Orth, and Jaap Schellekens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2881–2903, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2881-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2881-2017, 2017
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Runoff measurements for 966 catchments around the globe were used to assess the quality of the daily runoff estimates of 10 hydrological models run as part of tier-1 of the eartH2Observe project. We found pronounced inter-model performance differences, underscoring the importance of hydrological model uncertainty.
Rene Orth, Emanuel Dutra, Isabel F. Trigo, and Gianpaolo Balsamo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2483–2495, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2483-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-2483-2017, 2017
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State-of-the-art land surface models (LSMs) rely on poorly constrained parameters. To enhance LSM configuration, new satellite-based Earth observations are essential. This is because multiple observational datasets allow us to assess and validate the representation of coupled processes in LSMs. The resulting improved LSM configuration is beneficial for coupled weather forecasts, and hence valuable to society.
Mathias Hauser, René Orth, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1665–1677, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1665-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1665-2017, 2017
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Water in the soil can influence temperature and precipitation of the atmosphere. However, the atmosphere also alters the soil moisture content. Climate model simulations prescribing soil moisture are a means to decouple these relationships. We find that the atmospheric response depends strongly on the method used to fix the soil moisture, as well as on the employed soil moisture data set.
Martin Hirschi and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 251–258, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-251-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-251-2017, 2017
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Terrestrial water storage comprises all forms of water storage on land surfaces, and its seasonal and inter-annual variations are mostly determined by soil moisture, groundwater, snow cover, and surface water. Soil moisture, especially, contributes to land--atmosphere coupling in an essential way. This paper presents an update of a basin-scale diagnostic dataset of monthly variations in terrestrial water storage for large river basins worldwide.
Sebastian Sippel, Jakob Zscheischler, Martin Heimann, Holger Lange, Miguel D. Mahecha, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, and Markus Reichstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 441–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-441-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-441-2017, 2017
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The paper re-investigates the question whether observed precipitation extremes and annual totals have been increasing in the world's dry regions over the last 60 years. Despite recently postulated increasing trends, we demonstrate that large uncertainties prevail due to (1) the choice of dryness definition and (2) statistical data processing. In fact, we find only minor (and only some significant) increases if (1) dryness is based on aridity and (2) statistical artefacts are accounted for.
Gianluca Tramontana, Martin Jung, Christopher R. Schwalm, Kazuhito Ichii, Gustau Camps-Valls, Botond Ráduly, Markus Reichstein, M. Altaf Arain, Alessandro Cescatti, Gerard Kiely, Lutz Merbold, Penelope Serrano-Ortiz, Sven Sickert, Sebastian Wolf, and Dario Papale
Biogeosciences, 13, 4291–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4291-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4291-2016, 2016
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We have evaluated 11 machine learning (ML) methods and two complementary drivers' setup to estimate the carbon dioxide (CO2) and energy exchanges between land ecosystems and atmosphere. Obtained results have shown high consistency among ML and high capability to estimate the spatial and seasonal variability of the target fluxes. The results were good for all the ecosystems, with limitations to the ones in the extreme environments (cold, hot) or less represented in the training data (tropics).
Bjorn-Gustaf J. Brooks, Ankur R. Desai, Britton B. Stephens, Anna M. Michalak, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-223, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-223, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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CO2 is the primary greenhouse gas, and its abundance in the atmosphere tends to increase during disturbances like drought. This paper demonstrates how CO2 measurements are combined with models to determine not only how strongly different locations influence CO2 measurement stations, but also the capacity of those measurement stations to detect drought effects. Understanding detection sensitivity will help assess what kinds of changes and turnings points can be monitored using atmospheric CO2.
S. Sippel, F. E. L. Otto, M. Forkel, M. R. Allen, B. P. Guillod, M. Heimann, M. Reichstein, S. I. Seneviratne, K. Thonicke, and M. D. Mahecha
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 71–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-71-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-71-2016, 2016
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We introduce a novel technique to bias correct climate model output for impact simulations that preserves its physical consistency and multivariate structure. The methodology considerably improves the representation of extremes in climatic variables relative to conventional bias correction strategies. Illustrative simulations of biosphere–atmosphere carbon and water fluxes with a biosphere model (LPJmL) show that the novel technique can be usefully applied to drive climate impact models.
O. Perez-Priego, J. Guan, M. Rossini, F. Fava, T. Wutzler, G. Moreno, N. Carvalhais, A. Carrara, O. Kolle, T. Julitta, M. Schrumpf, M. Reichstein, and M. Migliavacca
Biogeosciences, 12, 6351–6367, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6351-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6351-2015, 2015
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Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and photochemical reflectance index revealed controls of climate and nutrient availability on photosynthesis (gross primary production, GPP). Meteo-driven models (MMs) were unable to describe nutrient-induced effects on GPP. Important implications can be derived from these results, and uncertainties in the prediction of global GPP still remain when MMs do not account for plant nutrient availability.
S. Hashimoto, N. Carvalhais, A. Ito, M. Migliavacca, K. Nishina, and M. Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 12, 4121–4132, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4121-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4121-2015, 2015
A. Rammig, M. Wiedermann, J. F. Donges, F. Babst, W. von Bloh, D. Frank, K. Thonicke, and M. D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 12, 373–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-373-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-373-2015, 2015
P. Ciais, A. J. Dolman, A. Bombelli, R. Duren, A. Peregon, P. J. Rayner, C. Miller, N. Gobron, G. Kinderman, G. Marland, N. Gruber, F. Chevallier, R. J. Andres, G. Balsamo, L. Bopp, F.-M. Bréon, G. Broquet, R. Dargaville, T. J. Battin, A. Borges, H. Bovensmann, M. Buchwitz, J. Butler, J. G. Canadell, R. B. Cook, R. DeFries, R. Engelen, K. R. Gurney, C. Heinze, M. Heimann, A. Held, M. Henry, B. Law, S. Luyssaert, J. Miller, T. Moriyama, C. Moulin, R. B. Myneni, C. Nussli, M. Obersteiner, D. Ojima, Y. Pan, J.-D. Paris, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, S. Plummer, S. Quegan, P. Raymond, M. Reichstein, L. Rivier, C. Sabine, D. Schimel, O. Tarasova, R. Valentini, R. Wang, G. van der Werf, D. Wickland, M. Williams, and C. Zehner
Biogeosciences, 11, 3547–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, 2014
X. Wu, F. Babst, P. Ciais, D. Frank, M. Reichstein, M. Wattenbach, C. Zang, and M. D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 11, 3057–3068, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3057-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3057-2014, 2014
J. Zscheischler, M. Reichstein, S. Harmeling, A. Rammig, E. Tomelleri, and M. D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 11, 2909–2924, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2909-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2909-2014, 2014
B. Ahrens, M. Reichstein, W. Borken, J. Muhr, S. E. Trumbore, and T. Wutzler
Biogeosciences, 11, 2147–2168, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2147-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2147-2014, 2014
J. v. Buttlar, J. Zscheischler, and M. D. Mahecha
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 203–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-203-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-203-2014, 2014
B. Badawy, C. Rödenbeck, M. Reichstein, N. Carvalhais, and M. Heimann
Biogeosciences, 10, 6485–6508, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6485-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6485-2013, 2013
R. Orth and S. I. Seneviratne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3895–3911, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3895-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3895-2013, 2013
B. Mueller, M. Hirschi, C. Jimenez, P. Ciais, P. A. Dirmeyer, A. J. Dolman, J. B. Fisher, M. Jung, F. Ludwig, F. Maignan, D. G. Miralles, M. F. McCabe, M. Reichstein, J. Sheffield, K. Wang, E. F. Wood, Y. Zhang, and S. I. Seneviratne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3707–3720, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3707-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3707-2013, 2013
M. C. Braakhekke, T. Wutzler, C. Beer, J. Kattge, M. Schrumpf, B. Ahrens, I. Schöning, M. R. Hoosbeek, B. Kruijt, P. Kabat, and M. Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 10, 399–420, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-399-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-399-2013, 2013
G. Lasslop, M. Migliavacca, G. Bohrer, M. Reichstein, M. Bahn, A. Ibrom, C. Jacobs, P. Kolari, D. Papale, T. Vesala, G. Wohlfahrt, and A. Cescatti
Biogeosciences, 9, 5243–5259, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5243-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5243-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Dynamics of the Earth system: interactions
Continental heat storage: contributions from the ground, inland waters, and permafrost thawing
The rate of information transfer as a measure of ocean–atmosphere interactions
Evaluation of global teleconnections in CMIP6 climate projections using complex networks
On the additivity of climate responses to the volcanic and solar forcing in the early 19th century
Exploring the relationship between temperature forecast errors and Earth system variables
Trends and uncertainties of mass-driven sea-level change in the satellite altimetry era
The biogeophysical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes in Earth system models
Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt–elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks
Complex network analysis of fine particulate matter (PM2.5): transport and clustering
CO2 surface variability: from the stratosphere or not?
Quantifying memory and persistence in the atmosphere–land and ocean carbon system
Salinity dynamics of the Baltic Sea
Impact of urbanization on the thermal environment of the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration under complex terrain
Sensitivity of land–atmosphere coupling strength to changing atmospheric temperature and moisture over Europe
Human impacts and their interactions in the Baltic Sea region
Exploring the coupled ocean and atmosphere system with a data science approach applied to observations from the Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition
Accounting for surface waves improves gas flux estimation at high wind speed in a large lake
Multiscale fractal dimension analysis of a reduced order model of coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics
Modelling sea-level fingerprints of glaciated regions with low mantle viscosity
Jarzynski equality and Crooks relation for local models of air–sea interaction
Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming
A climate network perspective on the intertropical convergence zone
Spatiotemporal patterns of synchronous heavy rainfall events in East Asia during the Baiu season
Rankings of extreme and widespread dry and wet events in the Iberian Peninsula between 1901 and 2016
Stratospheric ozone and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) interaction with the tropical troposphere on intraseasonal and interannual timescales: a normal-mode perspective
Daytime low-level clouds in West Africa – occurrence, associated drivers, and shortwave radiation attenuation
Water transport among the world ocean basins within the water cycle
Economic impacts of a glacial period: a thought experiment to assess the disconnect between econometrics and climate sciences
Semi-equilibrated global sea-level change projections for the next 10 000 years
The synergistic impact of ENSO and IOD on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in observations and climate simulations – an information theory perspective
Climate change as an incentive for future human migration
Compound warm–dry and cold–wet events over the Mediterranean
Climate–groundwater dynamics inferred from GRACE and the role of hydraulic memory
Mesoscale atmospheric circulation controls of local meteorological elevation gradients on Kersten Glacier near Kilimanjaro summit
On the interconnections among major climate modes and their common driving factors
Eurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periods
Back to the future II: tidal evolution of four supercontinent scenarios
Concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes at the global scale
Synthesis and evaluation of historical meridional heat transport from midlatitudes towards the Arctic
Amplified warming of seasonal cold extremes relative to the mean in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics
Tropical and mid-latitude teleconnections interacting with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a theory-guided causal effect network approach
Analysis of the position and strength of westerlies and trades with implications for Agulhas leakage and South Benguela upwelling
Organization of dust storms and synoptic-scale transport of dust by Kelvin waves
ESD Reviews: Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation
North Pacific subtropical sea surface temperature frontogenesis and its connection with the atmosphere above
The multi-scale structure of atmospheric energetic constraints on globally averaged precipitation
Potential of global land water recycling to mitigate local temperature extremes
Pipes to Earth's subsurface: the role of atmospheric conditions in controlling air transport through boreholes and shafts
Causal dependences between the coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics over the tropical Pacific, the North Pacific and the North Atlantic
Moisture transport and Antarctic sea ice: austral spring 2016 event
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, 2023
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Climate change is caused by the accumulated heat in the Earth system, with the land storing the second largest amount of this extra heat. Here, new estimates of continental heat storage are obtained, including changes in inland-water heat storage and permafrost heat storage in addition to changes in ground heat storage. We also argue that heat gains in all three components should be monitored independently of their magnitude due to heat-dependent processes affecting society and ecosystems.
David Docquier, Stéphane Vannitsem, and Alessio Bellucci
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 577–591, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-577-2023, 2023
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The climate system is strongly regulated by interactions between the ocean and atmosphere. However, many uncertainties remain in the understanding of these interactions. Our analysis uses a relatively novel approach to quantify causal links between the ocean surface and lower atmosphere based on satellite observations. We find that both the ocean and atmosphere influence each other but with varying intensity depending on the region, demonstrating the power of causal methods.
Clementine Dalelane, Kristina Winderlich, and Andreas Walter
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 17–37, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-17-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-17-2023, 2023
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The realistic representation of global teleconnections is an indispensable requirement for the reliable simulation of low-frequency climate variability and climate change. We present an application of the complex network framework to quantify and evaluate large-scale interactions within and between ocean and atmosphere in 22 historical CMIP6 climate projections with respect to two century-long reanalyses.
Shih-Wei Fang, Claudia Timmreck, Johann Jungclaus, Kirstin Krüger, and Hauke Schmidt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1535–1555, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1535-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1535-2022, 2022
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The early 19th century was the coldest period over the past 500 years, when strong tropical volcanic events and a solar minimum coincided. This study quantifies potential surface cooling from the solar and volcanic forcing in the early 19th century with large ensemble simulations, and identifies the regions that their impacts cannot be simply additive. The cooling perspective of Arctic amplification exists in both solar and post-volcano period with the albedo feedback as the main contribution.
Melissa Ruiz-Vásquez, Sungmin O, Alexander Brenning, Randal D. Koster, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Ulrich Weber, Gabriele Arduini, Ana Bastos, Markus Reichstein, and René Orth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1451–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1451-2022, 2022
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Subseasonal forecasts facilitate early warning of extreme events; however their predictability sources are not fully explored. We find that global temperature forecast errors in many regions are related to climate variables such as solar radiation and precipitation, as well as land surface variables such as soil moisture and evaporative fraction. A better representation of these variables in the forecasting and data assimilation systems can support the accuracy of temperature forecasts.
Carolina M. L. Camargo, Riccardo E. M. Riva, Tim H. J. Hermans, and Aimée B. A. Slangen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1351–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1351-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1351-2022, 2022
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The mass loss from Antarctica, Greenland and glaciers and variations in land water storage cause sea-level changes. Here, we characterize the regional trends within these sea-level contributions, taking into account mass variations since 1993. We take a comprehensive approach to determining the uncertainties of these sea-level changes, considering different types of errors. Our study reveals the importance of clearly quantifying the uncertainties of sea-level change trends.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1305–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, 2022
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Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation, and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occurs and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Maria Zeitz, Jan M. Haacker, Jonathan F. Donges, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1077–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, 2022
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The stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet under global warming is crucial. Here, using PISM, we study how the interplay of feedbacks between the ice sheet, the atmosphere and solid Earth affects the long-term response of the Greenland Ice Sheet under constant warming. Our findings suggest four distinct dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet on the route to destabilization under global warming – from recovery via quasi-periodic oscillations in ice volume to ice sheet collapse.
Na Ying, Wansuo Duan, Zhidan Zhao, and Jingfang Fan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1029–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1029-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1029-2022, 2022
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A complex PM2.5 measurement network has been built to investigate transport patterns and cooperative regions in China. Network-based degree measurements are used to reveal the spatial transport pattern of PM2.5. The study also attempts to investigate the seasonal transport path of PM2.5. In addition, the cooperation regions of PM2.5 are quantified according to their synchronicity characteristics. The proposed study can be applied to other air pollutant data, such as ozone and NOx.
Michael J. Prather
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 703–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-703-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric CO2 fluctuations point to changes in fossil fuel emissions plus natural and perturbed variations in the natural carbon cycle. One unstudied source of variability is the stratosphere, where the influx of aged CO2-depleted air can cause surface fluctuations. Using modeling and, separately, scaling the observed N2O variability, I find that stratosphere-driven surface variability in CO2 is not a significant uncertainty (at most 10 % of the observed interannual variability).
Matthias Jonas, Rostyslav Bun, Iryna Ryzha, and Piotr Żebrowski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 439–455, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-439-2022, 2022
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We interpret carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel burning and land use as a global stress–strain experiment to reflect the overall behavior of the atmosphere–land and ocean system in response to increasing CO2 emissions since 1850. The system has been trapped progressively in terms of persistence, while its ability to build up memory has been reduced. We expect system failures globally well before 2050 if the current trend in emissions is not reversed immediately and sustainably.
Andreas Lehmann, Kai Myrberg, Piia Post, Irina Chubarenko, Inga Dailidiene, Hans-Harald Hinrichsen, Karin Hüssy, Taavi Liblik, H. E. Markus Meier, Urmas Lips, and Tatiana Bukanova
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 373–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-373-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-373-2022, 2022
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The salinity in the Baltic Sea is not only an important topic for physical oceanography as such, but it also integrates the complete water and energy cycle. It is a primary external driver controlling ecosystem dynamics of the Baltic Sea. The long-term dynamics are controlled by river runoff, net precipitation, and the water mass exchange between the North Sea and Baltic Sea. On shorter timescales, the ephemeral atmospheric conditions drive a very complex and highly variable salinity regime.
Si Chen, Zhenghui Xie, Jinbo Xie, Bin Liu, Binghao Jia, Peihua Qin, Longhuan Wang, Yan Wang, and Ruichao Li
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 341–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-341-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-341-2022, 2022
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This study discusses the changes in the summer thermal environment in the Chengdu–Chongqing urban agglomeration due to urban expansion in complex terrain conditions in the recent 40 years, using high-resolution simulations with the WRF model. We quantify the influence of a single urban expansion factor and a single complex terrain factor on the urban thermal environment. Under the joint influence of complex terrain and urban expansion, the heat island effect caused by urbanization was enhanced.
Lisa Jach, Thomas Schwitalla, Oliver Branch, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Volker Wulfmeyer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 109–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-109-2022, 2022
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The land surface can influence the occurrence of local rainfall through different feedback mechanisms. In Europe, this happens most frequently in summer. Here, we examine how differences in atmospheric temperature and moisture change where and how often the land surface can influence rainfall. The results show that the differences barely move the region of strong surface influence over Scandinavia and eastern Europe, but they can change the frequency of coupling events.
Marcus Reckermann, Anders Omstedt, Tarmo Soomere, Juris Aigars, Naveed Akhtar, Magdalena Bełdowska, Jacek Bełdowski, Tom Cronin, Michał Czub, Margit Eero, Kari Petri Hyytiäinen, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Anders Kiessling, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kuliński, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Michelle McCrackin, H. E. Markus Meier, Sonja Oberbeckmann, Kevin Parnell, Cristian Pons-Seres de Brauwer, Anneli Poska, Jarkko Saarinen, Beata Szymczycha, Emma Undeman, Anders Wörman, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, 2022
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As part of the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR), we present an inventory and discussion of different human-induced factors and processes affecting the environment of the Baltic Sea region and their interrelations. Some are naturally occurring and modified by human activities, others are completely human-induced, and they are all interrelated to different degrees. The findings from this study can largely be transferred to other comparable marginal and coastal seas in the world.
Sebastian Landwehr, Michele Volpi, F. Alexander Haumann, Charlotte M. Robinson, Iris Thurnherr, Valerio Ferracci, Andrea Baccarini, Jenny Thomas, Irina Gorodetskaya, Christian Tatzelt, Silvia Henning, Rob L. Modini, Heather J. Forrer, Yajuan Lin, Nicolas Cassar, Rafel Simó, Christel Hassler, Alireza Moallemi, Sarah E. Fawcett, Neil Harris, Ruth Airs, Marzieh H. Derkani, Alberto Alberello, Alessandro Toffoli, Gang Chen, Pablo Rodríguez-Ros, Marina Zamanillo, Pau Cortés-Greus, Lei Xue, Conor G. Bolas, Katherine C. Leonard, Fernando Perez-Cruz, David Walton, and Julia Schmale
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1295–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1295-2021, 2021
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The Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition surveyed a large number of variables describing the dynamic state of ocean and atmosphere, freshwater cycle, atmospheric chemistry, ocean biogeochemistry, and microbiology in the Southern Ocean. To reduce the dimensionality of the dataset, we apply a sparse principal component analysis and identify temporal patterns from diurnal to seasonal cycles, as well as geographical gradients and
hotspotsof interaction. Code and data are open access.
Pascal Perolo, Bieito Fernández Castro, Nicolas Escoffier, Thibault Lambert, Damien Bouffard, and Marie-Elodie Perga
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1169–1189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1169-2021, 2021
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Wind blowing over the ocean creates waves that, by increasing the level of turbulence, promote gas exchange at the air–water interface. In this study, for the first time, we measured enhanced gas exchanges by wind-induced waves at the surface of a large lake. We adapted an ocean-based model to account for the effect of surface waves on gas exchange in lakes. We finally show that intense wind events with surface waves contribute disproportionately to the annual CO2 gas flux in a large lake.
Tommaso Alberti, Reik V. Donner, and Stéphane Vannitsem
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 837–855, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-837-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-837-2021, 2021
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We provide a novel approach to diagnose the strength of the ocean–atmosphere coupling by using both a reduced order model and reanalysis data. Our findings suggest the ocean–atmosphere dynamics presents a rich variety of features, moving from a chaotic to a coherent coupled dynamics, mainly attributed to the atmosphere and only marginally to the ocean. Our observations suggest further investigations in characterizing the occurrence and spatial dependency of the ocean–atmosphere coupling.
Alan Bartholet, Glenn A. Milne, and Konstantin Latychev
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 783–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-783-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-783-2021, 2021
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Improving the accuracy of regional sea-level projections is an important aim that will impact estimates of sea-level hazard around the globe. The computation of sea-level fingerprints is a key component of any such projection, and to date these computations have been based on the assumption that elastic deformation accurately describes the solid Earth response on century timescales. We show here that this assumption is inaccurate in some glaciated regions characterized by low mantle viscosity.
Achim Wirth and Florian Lemarié
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 689–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-689-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-689-2021, 2021
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We show that modern concepts of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics can be applied to large-scale environmental fluid dynamics, where fluctuations are not thermal but come from turbulence. The work theorems developed by Jarzynski and Crooks are applied to air–sea interaction. Rather than looking at the average values of thermodynamic variables, their probability density functions are considered, which allows us to replace the inequalities of equilibrium statistical mechanics with equalities.
Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, Jürgen Kurths, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, 2021
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In the Earth system, climate tipping elements exist that can undergo qualitative changes in response to environmental perturbations. If triggered, this would result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. We quantify the risk of tipping cascades using a conceptual but fully dynamic network approach. We uncover that the risk of tipping cascades under global warming scenarios is enormous and find that the continental ice sheets are most likely to initiate these failures.
Frederik Wolf, Aiko Voigt, and Reik V. Donner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 353–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-353-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-353-2021, 2021
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In our work, we employ complex networks to study the relation between the time mean position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and sea surface temperature (SST) variability. We show that the information hidden in different spatial SST correlation patterns, which we access utilizing complex networks, is strongly correlated with the time mean position of the ITCZ. This research contributes to the ongoing discussion on drivers of the annual migration of the ITCZ.
Frederik Wolf, Ugur Ozturk, Kevin Cheung, and Reik V. Donner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 295–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-295-2021, 2021
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Motivated by a lacking onset prediction scheme, we examine the temporal evolution of synchronous heavy rainfall associated with the East Asian Monsoon System employing a network approach. We find, that the evolution of the Baiu front is associated with the formation of a spatially separated double band of synchronous rainfall. Furthermore, we identify the South Asian Anticyclone and the North Pacific Subtropical High as the main drivers, which have been assumed to be independent previously.
Margarida L. R. Liberato, Irene Montero, Célia Gouveia, Ana Russo, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 197–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-197-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-197-2021, 2021
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Extensive, long-standing dry and wet episodes are frequent climatic extreme events (EEs) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). A method for ranking regional extremes of persistent, widespread drought and wet events is presented, using different SPEI timescales. Results show that there is no region more prone to EE occurrences in the IP, the most extreme extensive agricultural droughts evolve into hydrological and more persistent extreme droughts, and widespread wet and dry EEs are anti-correlated.
Breno Raphaldini, André S. W. Teruya, Pedro Leite da Silva Dias, Lucas Massaroppe, and Daniel Yasumasa Takahashi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 83–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-83-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-83-2021, 2021
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Several recent studies suggest a modulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The physics behind this interaction, however, remain poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the QBO–MJO interaction and the role of stratospheric ozone as a forcing mechanism. A normal-mode decomposition procedure combined with causality analysis reveals significant interactions between MJO-related modes and QBO-related modes.
Derrick K. Danso, Sandrine Anquetin, Arona Diedhiou, Kouakou Kouadio, and Arsène T. Kobea
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1133–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1133-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1133-2020, 2020
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The atmospheric and surface conditions that exist during the occurrence of daytime low-level clouds (LLCs) and their influence on solar radiation were investigated in West Africa. During the monsoon season, these LLCs are linked to high moisture flux driven by strong southwesterly winds from the Gulf of Guinea and significant background moisture levels. Their occurrence leads to a strong reduction in the incoming solar radiation and has large impacts on the surface energy budget.
David García-García, Isabel Vigo, and Mario Trottini
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1089–1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1089-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1089-2020, 2020
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The global water cycle involves water-mass transport on land, in the atmosphere, in the ocean, and among them. The GRACE mission has allowed for the quantification of water-mass variations. It was a revolution in the understanding of Earth dynamics. Here, we develop and apply a novel method, based on GRACE data and atmospheric models, that allows systematic estimation of water-mass exchange among ocean basins. This is valuable for understanding the role of the ocean within the water cycle.
Marie-Noëlle Woillez, Gaël Giraud, and Antoine Godin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1073–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1073-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1073-2020, 2020
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To illustrate the fact that future economic damage from global warming is often highly underestimated, we applied two different statistically based damage functions available in the literature to a global cooling of 4 °C. We show that the gross domestic product (GDP) projections obtained are at odds with the state of the planet during an ice age. We conclude that such functions do not provide relevant information on potential damage from a large climate change, be it cooling or warming.
Jonas Van Breedam, Heiko Goelzer, and Philippe Huybrechts
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, 2020
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We made projections of global mean sea-level change during the next 10 000 years for a range in climate forcing scenarios ranging from a peak in carbon dioxide concentrations in the next decades to burning most of the available carbon reserves over the next 2 centuries. We find that global mean sea level will rise between 9 and 37 m, depending on the emission of greenhouse gases. In this study, we investigated the long-term consequence of climate change for sea-level rise.
Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Cristina Primo, Silje Sørland, and Bodo Ahrens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 903–923, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-903-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-903-2020, 2020
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Information exchange (IE) from the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is investigated. Observational data show that IOD and ENSO synergistically exchange information on ISMR variability over central India. IE patterns observed in three global climate models (GCMs) differ from observations. Our study highlights new perspectives that IE metrics could bring to climate science.
Min Chen and Ken Caldeira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 875–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020, 2020
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We examine the implications of future motivation for humans to migrate by analyzing today’s relationships between climatic factors and population density, with all other factors held constant. Such analyses are unlikely to make accurate predictions but can still be useful for informing discussions about the broad range of incentives that might influence migration decisions. Areas with the highest projected population growth rates tend to be the areas most adversely affected by climate change.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Philip J. Ward, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 793–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, 2020
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In this paper we quantify Mediterranean compound temperature and precipitation dynamical extremes (CDEs) over the 1979–2018 period. The strength of the temperature–precipitation coupling during summer increased and is driven by surface warming. We also link the CDEs to compound hot–dry and cold–wet events during summer and winter respectively.
Simon Opie, Richard G. Taylor, Chris M. Brierley, Mohammad Shamsudduha, and Mark O. Cuthbert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 775–791, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020, 2020
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Knowledge of the relationship between climate and groundwater is limited and typically undermined by the scale, duration and accessibility of observations. Using monthly satellite measurements newly compiled over 14 years in the tropics and sub-tropics, we show that the imprint of precipitation history on groundwater, i.e. hydraulic memory, is longer in drylands than humid environments with important implications for the understanding and management of groundwater resources under climate change.
Thomas Mölg, Douglas R. Hardy, Emily Collier, Elena Kropač, Christina Schmid, Nicolas J. Cullen, Georg Kaser, Rainer Prinz, and Michael Winkler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 653–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-653-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-653-2020, 2020
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The glaciers on Kilimanjaro summit are like sample spots of the climate in the tropical mid-troposphere. Measurements of air temperature, air humidity, and precipitation with automated weather stations show that the differences in these meteorological elements between two altitudes (~ 5600 and ~ 5900 m) vary significantly over the day and the seasons, in concert with airflow dynamics around the mountain. Knowledge of these variations will improve atmosphere and cryosphere models.
Xinnong Pan, Geli Wang, Peicai Yang, Jun Wang, and Anastasios A. Tsonis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 525–535, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-525-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-525-2020, 2020
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The variations in oceanic and atmospheric modes play important roles in global and regional climate variability. The relationships between their variations and regional climate variability have been extensively examined, but the interconnections among these climate modes remain unclear. We show that the base periods and their harmonic oscillations that appear to be related to QBO, ENSO, and solar activities act as key connections among the climatic modes with synchronous behaviors.
Martin Wegmann, Marco Rohrer, María Santolaria-Otín, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 509–524, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020, 2020
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Predicting the climate of the upcoming season is of big societal benefit, but finding out which component of the climate system can act as a predictor is difficult. In this study, we focus on Eurasian snow cover as such a component and show that knowing the snow cover in November is very helpful in predicting the state of winter over Europe. However, this mechanism was questioned in the past. Using snow data that go back 150 years into the past, we are now very confident in this relationship.
Hannah S. Davies, J. A. Mattias Green, and Joao C. Duarte
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 291–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-291-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-291-2020, 2020
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We have confirmed that there is a supertidal cycle associated with the supercontinent cycle. As continents drift due to plate tectonics, oceans also change size, controlling the strength of the tides and causing periods of supertides. In this work, we used a coupled tectonic–tidal model of Earth's future to test four different scenarios that undergo different styles of ocean closure and periods of supertides. This has implications for the Earth system and for other planets with liquid oceans.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Robert L. Wilby, Maurizio Mazzoleni, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, 2020
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We show that floods and droughts can co-occur in time across remote regions on the globe and introduce metrics that can help in quantifying concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes. We then link wet–dry extremes to major modes of climate variability (i.e. ENSO, PDO, and AMO) and provide their spatial patterns. Such concurrent extreme hydrological events may pose risks to regional hydropower production and agricultural yields.
Yang Liu, Jisk Attema, Ben Moat, and Wilco Hazeleger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 77–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-77-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-77-2020, 2020
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Poleward meridional energy transport (MET) has significant impact on the climate in the Arctic. In this study, we quantify and intercompare MET at subpolar latitudes from six reanalysis data sets. The results indicate that the spatial distribution and temporal variations of MET differ substantially among the reanalysis data sets. Our study suggests that the MET estimated from reanalyses is useful for the evaluation of energy transports but should be used with great care.
Mia H. Gross, Markus G. Donat, Lisa V. Alexander, and Steven C. Sherwood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 97–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-97-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-97-2020, 2020
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This study explores the amplified warming of cold extremes relative to average temperatures for both the recent past and future in the Northern Hemisphere and the possible physical processes that are driving this. We find that decreases in snow cover and
warmer-than-usual winds are driving the disproportionate rates of warming in cold extremes relative to average temperatures. These accelerated warming rates in cold extremes have implications for tourism, insect longevity and human health.
Giorgia Di Capua, Marlene Kretschmer, Reik V. Donner, Bart van den Hurk, Ramesh Vellore, Raghavan Krishnan, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 17–34, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-17-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-17-2020, 2020
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Drivers from both the mid-latitudes and the tropical regions have been proposed to influence the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) subseasonal variability. To understand the relative importance of tropical and mid-latitude drivers, we apply recently developed causal discovery techniques to disentangle the causal relationships among these processes. Our results show that there is indeed a two-way interaction between the mid-latitude circulation and ISM rainfall over central India.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Kay-Christian Emeis, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Arne Biastoch, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 847–858, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-847-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-847-2019, 2019
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Our study reveals that the latitudinal position and intensity of Southern Hemisphere trades and westerlies are correlated. In the last decades the westerlies have shifted poleward and intensified. Furthermore, the latitudinal shifts and intensity of the trades and westerlies impact the sea surface temperatures around southern Africa and in the South Benguela upwelling region. The future development of wind stress depends on the strength of greenhouse gas forcing.
Ashok Kumar Pokharel and Michael L. Kaplan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 651–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-651-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-651-2019, 2019
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This study contributes to a better understanding of how large-scale dust transport can be organized from northwest Africa to the US, Amazon basin, and Europe and might be due in part to Kelvin waves. We also think there is still a need to study major historical dust events that occurred in this region to confirm that this location is suitable and responsible for the generation of the Kelvin waves and the transport of dust on a regular basis.
Christoph Heinze, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Colin Jones, Yves Balkanski, William Collins, Thierry Fichefet, Shuang Gao, Alex Hall, Detelina Ivanova, Wolfgang Knorr, Reto Knutti, Alexander Löw, Michael Ponater, Martin G. Schultz, Michael Schulz, Pier Siebesma, Joao Teixeira, George Tselioudis, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 379–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, 2019
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Earth system models for producing climate projections under given forcings include additional processes and feedbacks that traditional physical climate models do not consider. We present an overview of climate feedbacks for key Earth system components and discuss the evaluation of these feedbacks. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research.
Leying Zhang, Haiming Xu, Jing Ma, Ning Shi, and Jiechun Deng
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 261–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-261-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-261-2019, 2019
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Net heat flux dominates the frontogenesis of the NPSTF from October to December, while oceanic meridional temperature advection contributes equally as much or even more net heat flux in January and February. The atmosphere is critical to frontogenesis through net heat flux and the Aleutian low, the latter of which benefits meridional temperature advection.
Miguel Nogueira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 219–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-219-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-219-2019, 2019
Mathias Hauser, Wim Thiery, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 157–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-157-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-157-2019, 2019
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We develop a method to keep the amount of water in the soil at the present-day level, using only local water sources in a global climate model. This leads to less drying over many land areas, but also decreases river runoff. We find that temperature extremes in the 21st century decrease substantially using our method. This provides a new perspective on how land water can influence regional climate and introduces land water management as potential tool for local mitigation of climate change.
Elad Levintal, Nadav G. Lensky, Amit Mushkin, and Noam Weisbrod
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1141–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1141-2018, 2018
Stéphane Vannitsem and Pierre Ekelmans
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1063–1083, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1063-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1063-2018, 2018
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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon is a slow dynamics present in the coupled ocean–atmosphere tropical Pacific system which has important teleconnections with the northern extratropics. These teleconnections are usually believed to be the source of an enhanced predictability in the northern extratropics at seasonal to decadal timescales. This question is challenged by investigating the causality between these regions using an advanced technique known as convergent cross mapping.
Monica Ionita, Patrick Scholz, Klaus Grosfeld, and Renate Treffeisen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 939–954, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-939-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-939-2018, 2018
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In austral spring 2016 the Antarctic region experienced anomalous sea ice retreat in all sectors, with sea ice extent in October and November 2016 being the lowest in the Southern Hemisphere over the observational record (1979–present). The extreme sea ice retreat was accompanied by the wettest and warmest spring on record, over large areas covering the Indian ocean, the Ross Sea, and the Weddell Sea.
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Short summary
The present study (1) evaluates land–atmosphere coupling in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble against an ensemble of benchmarking datasets and (2) refines the model ensemble using a land–atmosphere coupling diagnostic as constraint. Our study demonstrates that a considerable fraction of coupled climate models overemphasize warm-season
moisture-limitedclimate regimes in midlatitude regions. This leads to biases in daily-scale temperature extremes, which are alleviated in a constrained ensemble.
The present study (1) evaluates land–atmosphere coupling in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble...
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