Articles | Volume 5, issue 2
Research article 24 Nov 2014
Research article | 24 Nov 2014
Path independence of climate and carbon cycle response over a broad range of cumulative carbon emissions
T. Herrington and K. Zickfeld
No articles found.
Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, Andrew H. MacDougall, Joe R. Melton, Claire C. Treat, Michael Eby, Lance F. W. Lesack, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.,
Preprint under review for GMDShort summary
In this paper, we describe a new for wetland methane model (WETMETH) developed for use in Earth system models. WETMETH consists of simple formulations for representing methane production and oxidation in wetlands. We also presents an evaluation of the model performance as embedded in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). WETMETH is capable of reproducing mean annual methane emissions consistent with present-day estimates from the regional to global scale.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016,Short summary
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
David P. Keller, Andrew Lenton, Vivian Scott, Naomi E. Vaughan, Nico Bauer, Duoying Ji, Chris D. Jones, Ben Kravitz, Helene Muri, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1133–1160,Short summary
There is little consensus on the impacts and efficacy of proposed carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods as a potential means of mitigating climate change. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDR-MIP) has been initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDR-MIP experiments.
Dana Ehlert and Kirsten Zickfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 197–210,Short summary
This study uses a global climate model to explore the extent to which sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the ocean is reversible if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) declines. It is found that sea level continues to rise for several decades after atmospheric CO2 starts to decline and does not return to the pre-industrial level for over thousand years after atmospheric CO2 is restored to the pre-industrial concentration.
M. Eby, A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, S. S. Drijfhout, N. R. Edwards, A. V. Eliseev, G. Feulner, T. Fichefet, C. E. Forest, H. Goosse, P. B. Holden, F. Joos, M. Kawamiya, D. Kicklighter, H. Kienert, K. Matsumoto, I. I. Mokhov, E. Monier, S. M. Olsen, J. O. P. Pedersen, M. Perrette, G. Philippon-Berthier, A. Ridgwell, A. Schlosser, T. Schneider von Deimling, G. Shaffer, R. S. Smith, R. Spahni, A. P. Sokolov, M. Steinacher, K. Tachiiri, K. Tokos, M. Yoshimori, N. Zeng, and F. Zhao
Clim. Past, 9, 1111–1140,
Related subject area
Dynamics of the Earth system: interactionsStratospheric ozone and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) interaction with the tropical troposphere on intraseasonal and interannual timescales: a normal-mode perspectiveDaytime low-level clouds in West Africa – occurrence, associated drivers, and shortwave radiation attenuationWater transport among the world ocean basins within the water cycleEconomic impacts of a glacial period: a thought experiment to assess the disconnect between econometrics and climate sciencesSemi-equilibrated global sea-level change projections for the next 10 000 yearsThe synergistic impact of ENSO and IOD on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in observations and climate simulations – an information theory perspectiveClimate change as an incentive for future human migrationCompound warm–dry and cold–wet events over the MediterraneanClimate–groundwater dynamics inferred from GRACE and the role of hydraulic memoryRankings of extreme and widespread dry and wet events in the Iberian Peninsula between 1901–2016Mesoscale atmospheric circulation controls of local meteorological elevation gradients on Kersten Glacier near Kilimanjaro summitOn the interconnections among major climate modes and their common driving factorsEurasian autumn snow link to winter North Atlantic Oscillation is strongest for Arctic warming periodsBack to the future II: tidal evolution of four supercontinent scenariosConcurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes at the global scaleSynthesis and evaluation of historical meridional heat transport from midlatitudes towards the ArcticAmplified warming of seasonal cold extremes relative to the mean in the Northern Hemisphere extratropicsTropical and mid-latitude teleconnections interacting with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a theory-guided causal effect network approachAnalysis of the position and strength of westerlies and trades with implications for Agulhas leakage and South Benguela upwellingOrganization of dust storms and synoptic-scale transport of dust by Kelvin wavesESD Reviews: Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluationNorth Pacific subtropical sea surface temperature frontogenesis and its connection with the atmosphere aboveThe multi-scale structure of atmospheric energetic constraints on globally averaged precipitationPotential of global land water recycling to mitigate local temperature extremesPipes to Earth's subsurface: the role of atmospheric conditions in controlling air transport through boreholes and shaftsCausal dependences between the coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics over the tropical Pacific, the North Pacific and the North AtlanticMoisture transport and Antarctic sea ice: austral spring 2016 eventRecent changes of relative humidity: regional connections with land and ocean processesAssessments of the Northern Hemisphere snow cover response to 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmingOn the social dynamics of moisture recyclingRecent trends in the frequency and duration of global floodsTwo drastically different climate states on an Earth-like terra-planetSpatial–temporal changes in runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 and 2 °C warming scenarios across ChinaInterannual variability in the gravity wave drag – vertical coupling and possible climate linksA new pattern of the moisture transport for precipitation related to the drastic decline in Arctic sea ice extentInfluence of atmospheric internal variability on the long-term Siberian water cycle during the past 2 centuriesTracking an atmospheric river in a warmer climate: from water vapor to economic impactsThe concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic and North Pacific basinsContribution of atmospheric circulation to recent off-shore sea-level variations in the Baltic Sea and the North SeaInterannual variability of mean sea level and its sensitivity to wind climate in an inter-tidal basinDesertification, resilience, and re-greening in the African Sahel – a matter of the observation period?Mechanisms of variability in decadal sea-level trends in the Baltic Sea over the 20th centuryAtmospheric teleconnections between the Arctic and the eastern Baltic Sea regionsAtmospheric torques and Earth's rotation: what drove the millisecond-level length-of-day response to the 2015–2016 El Niño?Trends and regime shifts in climatic conditions and river runoff in Estonia during 1951–2015A method to preserve trends in quantile mapping bias correction of climate modeled temperatureA Lagrangian perspective of the hydrological cycle in the Congo River basinA wind proxy based on migrating dunes at the Baltic coast: statistical analysis of the link between wind conditions and sand movementDrought identification in the eastern Baltic region using NDVIRiver logjams cause frequent large-scale forest die-off events in southwestern Amazonia
Breno Raphaldini, André S. W. Teruya, Pedro Leite da Silva Dias, Lucas Massaroppe, and Daniel Yasumasa Takahashi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 83–101,Short summary
Several recent studies suggest a modulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The physics behind this interaction, however, remain poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the QBO–MJO interaction and the role of stratospheric ozone as a forcing mechanism. A normal-mode decomposition procedure combined with causality analysis reveals significant interactions between MJO-related modes and QBO-related modes.
Derrick K. Danso, Sandrine Anquetin, Arona Diedhiou, Kouakou Kouadio, and Arsène T. Kobea
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1133–1152,Short summary
The atmospheric and surface conditions that exist during the occurrence of daytime low-level clouds (LLCs) and their influence on solar radiation were investigated in West Africa. During the monsoon season, these LLCs are linked to high moisture flux driven by strong southwesterly winds from the Gulf of Guinea and significant background moisture levels. Their occurrence leads to a strong reduction in the incoming solar radiation and has large impacts on the surface energy budget.
David García-García, Isabel Vigo, and Mario Trottini
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1089–1106,Short summary
The global water cycle involves water-mass transport on land, in the atmosphere, in the ocean, and among them. The GRACE mission has allowed for the quantification of water-mass variations. It was a revolution in the understanding of Earth dynamics. Here, we develop and apply a novel method, based on GRACE data and atmospheric models, that allows systematic estimation of water-mass exchange among ocean basins. This is valuable for understanding the role of the ocean within the water cycle.
Marie-Noëlle Woillez, Gaël Giraud, and Antoine Godin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1073–1087,Short summary
To illustrate the fact that future economic damage from global warming is often highly underestimated, we applied two different statistically based damage functions available in the literature to a global cooling of 4 °C. We show that the gross domestic product (GDP) projections obtained are at odds with the state of the planet during an ice age. We conclude that such functions do not provide relevant information on potential damage from a large climate change, be it cooling or warming.
Jonas Van Breedam, Heiko Goelzer, and Philippe Huybrechts
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 953–976,Short summary
We made projections of global mean sea-level change during the next 10 000 years for a range in climate forcing scenarios ranging from a peak in carbon dioxide concentrations in the next decades to burning most of the available carbon reserves over the next 2 centuries. We find that global mean sea level will rise between 9 and 37 m, depending on the emission of greenhouse gases. In this study, we investigated the long-term consequence of climate change for sea-level rise.
Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Cristina Primo, Silje Sørland, and Bodo Ahrens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 903–923,Short summary
Information exchange (IE) from the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is investigated. Observational data show that IOD and ENSO synergistically exchange information on ISMR variability over central India. IE patterns observed in three global climate models (GCMs) differ from observations. Our study highlights new perspectives that IE metrics could bring to climate science.
Min Chen and Ken Caldeira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 875–883,Short summary
We examine the implications of future motivation for humans to migrate by analyzing today’s relationships between climatic factors and population density, with all other factors held constant. Such analyses are unlikely to make accurate predictions but can still be useful for informing discussions about the broad range of incentives that might influence migration decisions. Areas with the highest projected population growth rates tend to be the areas most adversely affected by climate change.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Philip J. Ward, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 793–805,Short summary
In this paper we quantify Mediterranean compound temperature and precipitation dynamical extremes (CDEs) over the 1979–2018 period. The strength of the temperature–precipitation coupling during summer increased and is driven by surface warming. We also link the CDEs to compound hot–dry and cold–wet events during summer and winter respectively.
Simon Opie, Richard G. Taylor, Chris M. Brierley, Mohammad Shamsudduha, and Mark O. Cuthbert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 775–791,Short summary
Knowledge of the relationship between climate and groundwater is limited and typically undermined by the scale, duration and accessibility of observations. Using monthly satellite measurements newly compiled over 14 years in the tropics and sub-tropics, we show that the imprint of precipitation history on groundwater, i.e. hydraulic memory, is longer in drylands than humid environments with important implications for the understanding and management of groundwater resources under climate change.
Margarida L. R. Liberato, Irene Montero, Célia Gouveia, Ana Russo, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for ESDShort summary
Extensive, longstanding dry and wet episodes are frequent climatic extreme events (EE) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). A method for ranking regional extremes of persistent, widespread drought and wet events is presented, using different SPEI time scales. Results show (a) there is not a region more prone to these EE occurrence in IP; (b) the most extreme extensive agricultural droughts evolve into hydrological and more persistent extreme droughts; (c) widespread wet and dry EE are anti-correlated.
Thomas Mölg, Douglas R. Hardy, Emily Collier, Elena Kropač, Christina Schmid, Nicolas J. Cullen, Georg Kaser, Rainer Prinz, and Michael Winkler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 653–672,Short summary
The glaciers on Kilimanjaro summit are like sample spots of the climate in the tropical mid-troposphere. Measurements of air temperature, air humidity, and precipitation with automated weather stations show that the differences in these meteorological elements between two altitudes (~ 5600 and ~ 5900 m) vary significantly over the day and the seasons, in concert with airflow dynamics around the mountain. Knowledge of these variations will improve atmosphere and cryosphere models.
Xinnong Pan, Geli Wang, Peicai Yang, Jun Wang, and Anastasios A. Tsonis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 525–535,Short summary
The variations in oceanic and atmospheric modes play important roles in global and regional climate variability. The relationships between their variations and regional climate variability have been extensively examined, but the interconnections among these climate modes remain unclear. We show that the base periods and their harmonic oscillations that appear to be related to QBO, ENSO, and solar activities act as key connections among the climatic modes with synchronous behaviors.
Martin Wegmann, Marco Rohrer, María Santolaria-Otín, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 509–524,Short summary
Predicting the climate of the upcoming season is of big societal benefit, but finding out which component of the climate system can act as a predictor is difficult. In this study, we focus on Eurasian snow cover as such a component and show that knowing the snow cover in November is very helpful in predicting the state of winter over Europe. However, this mechanism was questioned in the past. Using snow data that go back 150 years into the past, we are now very confident in this relationship.
Hannah S. Davies, J. A. Mattias Green, and Joao C. Duarte
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 291–299,Short summary
We have confirmed that there is a supertidal cycle associated with the supercontinent cycle. As continents drift due to plate tectonics, oceans also change size, controlling the strength of the tides and causing periods of supertides. In this work, we used a coupled tectonic–tidal model of Earth's future to test four different scenarios that undergo different styles of ocean closure and periods of supertides. This has implications for the Earth system and for other planets with liquid oceans.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Robert L. Wilby, Maurizio Mazzoleni, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 251–266,Short summary
We show that floods and droughts can co-occur in time across remote regions on the globe and introduce metrics that can help in quantifying concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes. We then link wet–dry extremes to major modes of climate variability (i.e. ENSO, PDO, and AMO) and provide their spatial patterns. Such concurrent extreme hydrological events may pose risks to regional hydropower production and agricultural yields.
Yang Liu, Jisk Attema, Ben Moat, and Wilco Hazeleger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 77–96,Short summary
Poleward meridional energy transport (MET) has significant impact on the climate in the Arctic. In this study, we quantify and intercompare MET at subpolar latitudes from six reanalysis data sets. The results indicate that the spatial distribution and temporal variations of MET differ substantially among the reanalysis data sets. Our study suggests that the MET estimated from reanalyses is useful for the evaluation of energy transports but should be used with great care.
Mia H. Gross, Markus G. Donat, Lisa V. Alexander, and Steven C. Sherwood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 97–111,Short summary
This study explores the amplified warming of cold extremes relative to average temperatures for both the recent past and future in the Northern Hemisphere and the possible physical processes that are driving this. We find that decreases in snow cover and warmer-than-usual winds are driving the disproportionate rates of warming in cold extremes relative to average temperatures. These accelerated warming rates in cold extremes have implications for tourism, insect longevity and human health.
Giorgia Di Capua, Marlene Kretschmer, Reik V. Donner, Bart van den Hurk, Ramesh Vellore, Raghavan Krishnan, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 17–34,Short summary
Drivers from both the mid-latitudes and the tropical regions have been proposed to influence the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) subseasonal variability. To understand the relative importance of tropical and mid-latitude drivers, we apply recently developed causal discovery techniques to disentangle the causal relationships among these processes. Our results show that there is indeed a two-way interaction between the mid-latitude circulation and ISM rainfall over central India.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Kay-Christian Emeis, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Arne Biastoch, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 847–858,Short summary
Our study reveals that the latitudinal position and intensity of Southern Hemisphere trades and westerlies are correlated. In the last decades the westerlies have shifted poleward and intensified. Furthermore, the latitudinal shifts and intensity of the trades and westerlies impact the sea surface temperatures around southern Africa and in the South Benguela upwelling region. The future development of wind stress depends on the strength of greenhouse gas forcing.
Ashok Kumar Pokharel and Michael L. Kaplan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 651–666,Short summary
This study contributes to a better understanding of how large-scale dust transport can be organized from northwest Africa to the US, Amazon basin, and Europe and might be due in part to Kelvin waves. We also think there is still a need to study major historical dust events that occurred in this region to confirm that this location is suitable and responsible for the generation of the Kelvin waves and the transport of dust on a regular basis.
Christoph Heinze, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Colin Jones, Yves Balkanski, William Collins, Thierry Fichefet, Shuang Gao, Alex Hall, Detelina Ivanova, Wolfgang Knorr, Reto Knutti, Alexander Löw, Michael Ponater, Martin G. Schultz, Michael Schulz, Pier Siebesma, Joao Teixeira, George Tselioudis, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 379–452,Short summary
Earth system models for producing climate projections under given forcings include additional processes and feedbacks that traditional physical climate models do not consider. We present an overview of climate feedbacks for key Earth system components and discuss the evaluation of these feedbacks. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research.
Leying Zhang, Haiming Xu, Jing Ma, Ning Shi, and Jiechun Deng
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 261–270,Short summary
Net heat flux dominates the frontogenesis of the NPSTF from October to December, while oceanic meridional temperature advection contributes equally as much or even more net heat flux in January and February. The atmosphere is critical to frontogenesis through net heat flux and the Aleutian low, the latter of which benefits meridional temperature advection.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 219–232,
Mathias Hauser, Wim Thiery, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 157–169,Short summary
We develop a method to keep the amount of water in the soil at the present-day level, using only local water sources in a global climate model. This leads to less drying over many land areas, but also decreases river runoff. We find that temperature extremes in the 21st century decrease substantially using our method. This provides a new perspective on how land water can influence regional climate and introduces land water management as potential tool for local mitigation of climate change.
Elad Levintal, Nadav G. Lensky, Amit Mushkin, and Noam Weisbrod
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1141–1153,
Stéphane Vannitsem and Pierre Ekelmans
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1063–1083,Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon is a slow dynamics present in the coupled ocean–atmosphere tropical Pacific system which has important teleconnections with the northern extratropics. These teleconnections are usually believed to be the source of an enhanced predictability in the northern extratropics at seasonal to decadal timescales. This question is challenged by investigating the causality between these regions using an advanced technique known as convergent cross mapping.
Monica Ionita, Patrick Scholz, Klaus Grosfeld, and Renate Treffeisen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 939–954,Short summary
In austral spring 2016 the Antarctic region experienced anomalous sea ice retreat in all sectors, with sea ice extent in October and November 2016 being the lowest in the Southern Hemisphere over the observational record (1979–present). The extreme sea ice retreat was accompanied by the wettest and warmest spring on record, over large areas covering the Indian ocean, the Ross Sea, and the Weddell Sea.
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Anita Drumond, Ahmed El Kenawy, Fernando Dominguez-Castro, Miquel Tomas-Burguera, and Marina Peña-Gallardo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 915–937,Short summary
We analyzed changes in surface relative humidity (RH) at the global scale from 1979 to 2014 and compared the variability and trends in RH with those in land evapotranspiration and ocean evaporation in moisture source areas across a range of selected regions worldwide. Our results stress that the different hypotheses that may explain the decrease in RH under a global warming scenario could act together to explain recent RH trends.
Aihui Wang, Lianlian Xu, and Xianghui Kong
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 865–877,Short summary
The snow cover fractions (SCFs) from the CESM 1.5°C and 2°C projects and CMIP5 are assessed. The spatiotemporal variations in the above products are grossly consistent with observations. The SFC change in RCP2.6 is comparable to that in 1.5°C, but lower than that in 2°C. The contribution of surface temperature change to SCF differs by season. The model physical parameterization plays a predominant role in snow simulations triggered by climate internal variability.
Patrick W. Keys and Lan Wang-Erlandsson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 829–847,Short summary
Moisture recycling is the atmospheric branch of the water cycle, including evaporation and precipitation. While the physical water cycle is well-understood, the social links among the recipients of precipitation back to the sources of evaporation are not. In this work, we develop a method to determine how these social connections unfold, using a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods, finding that there are distinct types of social connections with corresponding policy and management tools.
Nasser Najibi and Naresh Devineni
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 757–783,Short summary
A global assessment of flood events using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) database is performed here to explore the planetary nature of the trends in the frequency and duration of floods (short, moderate, and long). This comprehensive study is the very first global study of
actual flood eventswhich identifies temporal changes in frequencies and characteristics of probability distribution of flood durations to understand the changing organization of the local to global dynamical systems.
Sirisha Kalidindi, Christian H. Reick, Thomas Raddatz, and Martin Claussen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 739–756,Short summary
Using climate simulations, we investigate the role of water recycling in shaping the climate of low-obliquity Earth-like terra-planets. By such a mechanism feeding water back from the extra-tropics to the tropics, the planet can assume two drastically different climate states differing by more than 35 K in global temperature. We describe the bifurcation between the two states occurring upon changes in surface albedo and argue that the bistability hints at a wider habitable zone for such planets.
Ran Zhai, Fulu Tao, and Zhihui Xu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 717–738,Short summary
This study investigated the changes in runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention (TEWR) across China under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios by four bias-corrected GCMs using the VIC hydrological model. Results showed that TEWR remained relatively stable than runoff under warming scenarios and there were more water-related risks under the 2.0 °C than under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. Our findings are useful for water resource management under different warming scenarios.
Petr Šácha, Jiri Miksovsky, and Petr Pisoft
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 647–661,Short summary
The paper investigates variability in the gravity wave drag in the stratosphere in connection with climate phenomena like the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. This link represents a possible mechanism of tropospheric influence on the higher atmospheric layers, a mechanism of utmost importance that has not been studied in detail yet. The results illustrate that there are indeed significant changes in the gravity wave drag distribution and strength depending on the phase of the studied oscillations.
Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Raquel Nieto, Marta Vázquez, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 611–625,Short summary
We have identified changes in the pattern of moisture transport for precipitation over the Arctic region, the Arctic Ocean, and its 13 main subdomains concurrent with the major sea ice decline that occurred in 2003. The pattern consists of a general decrease in moisture transport in summer and enhanced moisture transport in autumn and early winter, with different contributions depending on the moisture source and ocean subregion.
Kazuhiro Oshima, Koto Ogata, Hotaek Park, and Yoshihiro Tachibana
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 497–506,Short summary
Long-term variations in the Siberian river discharges of the Lena in the east and the Ob in the west were examined based on the observations, tree-ring reconstructions, and simulations with atmospheric and climate models. The discharges of the two rivers tended to be negatively correlated during the past 2 centuries. An east–west seesaw pattern of summertime large-scale atmospheric circulation frequently emerges over Siberia as an internal variability. This results in the negative correlations.
Francina Dominguez, Sandy Dall'erba, Shuyi Huang, Andre Avelino, Ali Mehran, Huancui Hu, Arthur Schmidt, Lawrence Schick, and Dennis Lettenmaier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 249–266,Short summary
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) account for most of the extreme flooding events on the northwestern coast of the US. In a warmer climate, ARs in this region are projected to become more frequent and intense. We present an integrated modeling system to quantify atmospheric–hydrologic–hydraulic and economic impacts of an AR event in western Washington. Our integrated modeling tool provides communities in the region with a range of possible future physical and economic impacts associated with AR flooding.
Jorge Eiras-Barca, Alexandre M. Ramos, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ricardo M. Trigo, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 91–102,Short summary
This paper analyses the potential role of atmospheric rivers in the explosive cyclone deepening. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data for 1979–2011, we analyse the concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins for the extended winter months (ONDJFM).
Sitar Karabil, Eduardo Zorita, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 69–90,Short summary
We analysed the contribution of atmospheric factors to interannual off-shore sea-level variability in the Baltic Sea region. We identified a different atmospheric circulation pattern that is more closely linked to sea-level variability than the NAO. The inverse barometer effect contributes to that link in the winter and summer seasons. Freshwater flux is connected to the link in summer and net heat flux in winter.The new atmospheric-pattern-related wind forcing plays an important role in summer.
Theo Gerkema and Matias Duran-Matute
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1223–1235,Short summary
Local mean sea level often varies strongly from year to year (on the order of a few decimeters). This is mainly due to interannual variability in wind climate and atmospheric pressure. In this paper, regional differences in the sensitivity of mean sea level to atmospheric forcing are studied in an inter-tidal basin. Correcting for the atmospheric effects removes most of the interannual variability in mean sea level.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1141–1170,Short summary
Sahel greening and browning are discussed based on the relevance of edaphic factors, the importance of the observation period, and modifications in the vegetation pattern. The key findings are that (i) vegetation recovery predominantly depends on soil types, (ii) botanical investigations and EO-based time series show a substantial decline in the diversity and cover density of woody species compared to pre-drought conditions, (iii) and pattern formation is a key indicator for ecosystem changes.
Sitar Karabil, Eduardo Zorita, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1031–1046,Short summary
We statistically analysed the mechanisms of the variability in decadal sea-level trends for the whole Baltic Sea basin over the last century. We used two different sea-level data sets and several climatic data sets. The results of this study showed that precipitation has a lagged effect on decadal sea-level trend variations from which the signature of atmospheric effect is removed. This detected underlying factor is not connected to oceanic forcing driven from the North Atlantic region.
Liisi Jakobson, Erko Jakobson, Piia Post, and Jaak Jaagus
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1019–1030,Short summary
Relationships between meteorological parameters between Arctic and the Baltic Sea regions were investigated using NCEP-CFSR reanalysis for 1979–2015. The Greenland and Baffin Bay regions climate have the most significant teleconnections with the Baltic Sea region temperature, specific humidity and wind speed. These relationships can be explained by the AO/NAO index variability only in winter. The results are valuable for selecting Arctic regions with the largest effect on the Baltic Sea region.
Sébastien B. Lambert, Steven L. Marcus, and Olivier de Viron
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1009–1017,Short summary
We explain how the extreme 2015–2016 El Niño event lengthened the day by 0.8 ms. The 2015–2016 event was an El Niño event of a different type compared to previous extreme events; thus, we expected different mechanisms of coupling with the solid Earth. We showed that the atmospheric torque on the American topography, usually acting alone during classical El Niños, was, in 2015–2016, augmented by a friction torque over the Pacific Ocean and inherent to the different nature of this particular event.
Jaak Jaagus, Mait Sepp, Toomas Tamm, Arvo Järvet, and Kiira Mõisja
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 963–976,Short summary
Trends and regime shifts in climatic and hydrological parameters are analysed in Estonia during 1951–2015. The most important finding was the regime shift in the majority of parameters since the winter 1988/1989. The intensity of westerly circulation described by the NAO and AO indices increased, winter mean air temperature and precipitation also increased, and snow cover duration decreased. Consequently, specific runoff of rivers increased in January, February and March but decreased in April.
Manolis G. Grillakis, Aristeidis G. Koutroulis, Ioannis N. Daliakopoulos, and Ioannis K. Tsanis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 889–900,Short summary
We present a methodology to adjust the systematic errors of climate-modeled temperature with a simultaneous long-term trend preservation. The method considers the normalization of the temperature towards a reference period modeled temperature and the estimation of a residual signal, in order to apply adjustment only to the former. The skill of the methodology is compared to other methods while also assessed on the European scale.
Rogert Sorí, Raquel Nieto, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Anita Drumond, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 653–675,
Svenja E. Bierstedt, Birgit Hünicke, Eduardo Zorita, and Juliane Ludwig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 639–652,Short summary
We statistically analyse the relationship between the structure of migrating dunes in the southern Baltic and the driving wind conditions over the past 26 years, with the long-term aim of using migrating dunes as a proxy for past wind conditions at an interannual resolution.
Egidijus Rimkus, Edvinas Stonevicius, Justinas Kilpys, Viktorija Maciulyte, and Donatas Valiukas
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 627–637,Short summary
Drought effect on vegetation in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea region was determined using satellite data. The impact of precipitation deficit on vegetation on arable land and in broadleaved and coniferous forests was analysed. The precipitation deficit in the first part of the growing season only has a significant impact on the vegetation on arable land, while this impact becomes more evident in all types of vegetation in the second half of the season.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 565–575,Short summary
In lowland Bolivia, satellite images show rivers collapsing and the replacement of forest with savannah. This was first described in 1996 as the result of logjams (river dams created by fallen trees). I have investigated how the logjams form and affect the forest through remote sensing and fieldwork. Logjams occur nearly every year and propagate upriver until the river changes course. This region offers a unique opportunity to study how frequent forest die-off events affect biodiversity.
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Recent studies have identified an approximately proportional relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions. This relationship – referred to as the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) – is useful for climate policy applications. We show that the TCRE is constant for cumulative emissions lower than ~1500GtC but declines for higher cumulative emissions. We also find the TCRE to decrease with increasing emission rate.
Recent studies have identified an approximately proportional relationship between global warming...