Articles | Volume 5, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-409-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-409-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
24 Nov 2014
Research article |
| 24 Nov 2014
Path independence of climate and carbon cycle response over a broad range of cumulative carbon emissions
T. Herrington
Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Canada
Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, Canada
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50 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Increase of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions with decreasing CO2 concentration scenarios K. Tachiiri et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab57d3
- Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble M. Steinacher & F. Joos 10.5194/bg-13-1071-2016
- The climate response to five trillion tonnes of carbon K. Tokarska et al. 10.1038/nclimate3036
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- Net Zero: Science, Origins, and Implications M. Allen et al. 10.1146/annurev-environ-112320-105050
- Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy H. Matthews et al. 10.1038/s41561-020-00663-3
- The role of prior assumptions in carbon budget calculations B. Sanderson 10.5194/esd-11-563-2020
- Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions L. Spafford & A. MacDougall 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7b
- Uncertainty in carbon budget estimates due to internal climate variability K. Tokarska et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abaf1b
- The Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean D. Notz & J. Stroeve 10.1007/s40641-018-0113-2
- Cumulative emissions accounting of greenhouse gases due to path independence for a sufficiently rapid emissions cycle A. Seshadri 10.1007/s00382-021-05739-3
- Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO 2 emission D. Notz & J. Stroeve 10.1126/science.aag2345
- Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO 2 emissions A. Partanen et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aa6eb0
- Path Independence of Carbon Budgets When Meeting a Stringent Global Mean Temperature Target After an Overshoot K. Tokarska et al. 10.1029/2019EF001312
- Distributing the Global Carbon Budget with climate justice criteria O. Alcaraz et al. 10.1007/s10584-018-2224-0
- Carbon budget concept and its deviation through the pulse response lens V. Avakumović 10.5194/esd-15-387-2024
- A modified impulse-response representation of the global near-surface air temperature and atmospheric concentration response to carbon dioxide emissions R. Millar et al. 10.5194/acp-17-7213-2017
- Drivers of peak warming in a consumption-maximizing world M. Allen 10.1038/nclimate2977
- Geological Net Zero and the need for disaggregated accounting for carbon sinks M. Allen et al. 10.1038/s41586-024-08326-8
- Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions C. Simmons & H. Matthews 10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035001
- Examination of a climate stabilization pathway via zero-emissions using Earth system models D. Nohara et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095005
- Evaluating sea ice thickness simulation is critical for projecting a summer ice-free Arctic Ocean X. Zhou et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac9d4d
- Non-CO2 forcing changes will likely decrease the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C N. Mengis & H. Matthews 10.1038/s41612-020-0123-3
- On the proportionality between global temperature change and cumulative CO 2 emissions during periods of net negative CO 2 emissions K. Zickfeld et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055006
- Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations J. Schwinger et al. 10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022
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- Predicting the contribution of climate change on North Atlantic underwater sound propagation L. Possenti et al. 10.7717/peerj.16208
- CMIP6 Models Predict Significant 21st Century Decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation W. Weijer et al. 10.1029/2019GL086075
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- Origin of path independence between cumulative CO $$_{2}$$ 2 emissions and global warming A. Seshadri 10.1007/s00382-016-3519-3
- The Transient Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions: a Review A. MacDougall 10.1007/s40641-015-0030-6
- The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change K. Tokarska & K. Zickfeld 10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094013
- Climate System Responses to a Common Emission Budget of Carbon Dioxide D. Tian et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0213.1
- Linking cumulative carbon emissions to observable climate impacts C. Nzotungicimpaye & H. Matthews 10.1088/2752-5295/ad3fda
- Sensitivity of carbon budgets to permafrost carbon feedbacks and non-CO 2 forcings A. MacDougall et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/125003
- Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios C. Koven et al. 10.5194/esd-13-885-2022
- The Sensitivity of the Proportionality between Temperature Change and Cumulative CO2 Emissions to Ocean Mixing D. Ehlert et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0247.1
- Carbon system state determines warming potential of emissions A. Winkler et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0306128
- The global carbon budget and the Paris agreement O. Alcaraz et al. 10.1108/IJCCSM-06-2017-0127
- An investigation into linearity with cumulative emissions of the climate and carbon cycle response in HadCM3LC S. Liddicoat et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/065003
- Limitations of the TCRE: Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions J. Munshi 10.2139/ssrn.3000932
- Correlation of Regional Warming with Global Emissions J. Munshi 10.2139/ssrn.3033001
- What determines the warming commitment after cessation of CO 2 emissions? D. Ehlert & K. Zickfeld 10.1088/1748-9326/aa564a
- The Effects of Carbon Dioxide Removal on the Carbon Cycle D. Keller et al. 10.1007/s40641-018-0104-3
- Enhancing life cycle impact assessment from climate science: Review of recent findings and recommendations for application to LCA A. Levasseur et al. 10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.06.049
- The oceanic origin of path-independent carbon budgets A. MacDougall 10.1038/s41598-017-10557-x
- Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales T. Frölicher & D. Paynter 10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075002
50 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Version 2 of the EUMETSAT OSI SAF and ESA CCI sea-ice concentration climate data records T. Lavergne et al. 10.5194/tc-13-49-2019
- Increasing confidence in projecting the Arctic ice-free year with emergent constraints B. Wang et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac0b17
- Increase of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions with decreasing CO2 concentration scenarios K. Tachiiri et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab57d3
- Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble M. Steinacher & F. Joos 10.5194/bg-13-1071-2016
- The climate response to five trillion tonnes of carbon K. Tokarska et al. 10.1038/nclimate3036
- Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6 D. Notz & S. Community 10.1029/2019GL086749
- Net Zero: Science, Origins, and Implications M. Allen et al. 10.1146/annurev-environ-112320-105050
- Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy H. Matthews et al. 10.1038/s41561-020-00663-3
- The role of prior assumptions in carbon budget calculations B. Sanderson 10.5194/esd-11-563-2020
- Quantifying the probability distribution function of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions L. Spafford & A. MacDougall 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6d7b
- Uncertainty in carbon budget estimates due to internal climate variability K. Tokarska et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abaf1b
- The Trajectory Towards a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean D. Notz & J. Stroeve 10.1007/s40641-018-0113-2
- Cumulative emissions accounting of greenhouse gases due to path independence for a sufficiently rapid emissions cycle A. Seshadri 10.1007/s00382-021-05739-3
- Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO 2 emission D. Notz & J. Stroeve 10.1126/science.aag2345
- Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO 2 emissions A. Partanen et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aa6eb0
- Path Independence of Carbon Budgets When Meeting a Stringent Global Mean Temperature Target After an Overshoot K. Tokarska et al. 10.1029/2019EF001312
- Distributing the Global Carbon Budget with climate justice criteria O. Alcaraz et al. 10.1007/s10584-018-2224-0
- Carbon budget concept and its deviation through the pulse response lens V. Avakumović 10.5194/esd-15-387-2024
- A modified impulse-response representation of the global near-surface air temperature and atmospheric concentration response to carbon dioxide emissions R. Millar et al. 10.5194/acp-17-7213-2017
- Drivers of peak warming in a consumption-maximizing world M. Allen 10.1038/nclimate2977
- Geological Net Zero and the need for disaggregated accounting for carbon sinks M. Allen et al. 10.1038/s41586-024-08326-8
- Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions C. Simmons & H. Matthews 10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035001
- Examination of a climate stabilization pathway via zero-emissions using Earth system models D. Nohara et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095005
- Evaluating sea ice thickness simulation is critical for projecting a summer ice-free Arctic Ocean X. Zhou et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac9d4d
- Non-CO2 forcing changes will likely decrease the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C N. Mengis & H. Matthews 10.1038/s41612-020-0123-3
- On the proportionality between global temperature change and cumulative CO 2 emissions during periods of net negative CO 2 emissions K. Zickfeld et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055006
- Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations J. Schwinger et al. 10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022
- Spatially Resolved Temperature Response Functions to CO2 Emissions L. Freese et al. 10.1029/2024GL108788
- The time lag between a carbon dioxide emission and maximum warming increases with the size of the emission K. Zickfeld & T. Herrington 10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/031001
- Predicting the contribution of climate change on North Atlantic underwater sound propagation L. Possenti et al. 10.7717/peerj.16208
- CMIP6 Models Predict Significant 21st Century Decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation W. Weijer et al. 10.1029/2019GL086075
- Asymmetry in the climate–carbon cycle response to positive and negative CO2 emissions K. Zickfeld et al. 10.1038/s41558-021-01061-2
- Origin of path independence between cumulative CO $$_{2}$$ 2 emissions and global warming A. Seshadri 10.1007/s00382-016-3519-3
- The Transient Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions: a Review A. MacDougall 10.1007/s40641-015-0030-6
- The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change K. Tokarska & K. Zickfeld 10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094013
- Climate System Responses to a Common Emission Budget of Carbon Dioxide D. Tian et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0213.1
- Linking cumulative carbon emissions to observable climate impacts C. Nzotungicimpaye & H. Matthews 10.1088/2752-5295/ad3fda
- Sensitivity of carbon budgets to permafrost carbon feedbacks and non-CO 2 forcings A. MacDougall et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/125003
- Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios C. Koven et al. 10.5194/esd-13-885-2022
- The Sensitivity of the Proportionality between Temperature Change and Cumulative CO2 Emissions to Ocean Mixing D. Ehlert et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0247.1
- Carbon system state determines warming potential of emissions A. Winkler et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0306128
- The global carbon budget and the Paris agreement O. Alcaraz et al. 10.1108/IJCCSM-06-2017-0127
- An investigation into linearity with cumulative emissions of the climate and carbon cycle response in HadCM3LC S. Liddicoat et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/065003
- Limitations of the TCRE: Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Emissions J. Munshi 10.2139/ssrn.3000932
- Correlation of Regional Warming with Global Emissions J. Munshi 10.2139/ssrn.3033001
- What determines the warming commitment after cessation of CO 2 emissions? D. Ehlert & K. Zickfeld 10.1088/1748-9326/aa564a
- The Effects of Carbon Dioxide Removal on the Carbon Cycle D. Keller et al. 10.1007/s40641-018-0104-3
- Enhancing life cycle impact assessment from climate science: Review of recent findings and recommendations for application to LCA A. Levasseur et al. 10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.06.049
- The oceanic origin of path-independent carbon budgets A. MacDougall 10.1038/s41598-017-10557-x
- Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales T. Frölicher & D. Paynter 10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075002
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Latest update: 30 May 2025
Short summary
Recent studies have identified an approximately proportional relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions. This relationship – referred to as the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) – is useful for climate policy applications. We show that the TCRE is constant for cumulative emissions lower than ~1500GtC but declines for higher cumulative emissions. We also find the TCRE to decrease with increasing emission rate.
Recent studies have identified an approximately proportional relationship between global warming...
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