Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1123–1132, 2020
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1123–1132, 2020

Research article 11 Dec 2020

Research article | 11 Dec 2020

Dating hiatuses: a statistical model of the recent slowdown in global warming and the next one

J. Isaac Miller and Kyungsik Nam

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Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
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Cited articles

Chen, X. and Tung, K. K.: Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration, Science, 345, 897–903,, 2014. 
Chen, X. and Tung, K. K.: Variations in ocean heat uptake during surface warming hiatus, Nat. Commun., 7, 12541,, 2016. 
Cowtan, K. and Way, R. G.: Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 1935–1944,, 2014. 
Drijfhout, S. S., Blaker, A. T., Josey, S. A., Nurser, A. J. G., Sinha, B., and Balmaseda, M. A.: Surface warming hiatus caused by increased heat uptake across multiple ocean basins, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7868–7874,, 2014. 
Enfield, D. B., Mestas-Nunez, A. M., and Trimble, P. J.: The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S., Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2077–2080,, 2001. 
Short summary
We augment an energy balance model with a novel measure of the oceans' multidecadal temperatures cycles to assess the contributions of model forcings and natural variability to the so-called hiatus in global warming. The model partially explains the recent slowdown and explains nearly all of the subsequent warming. The natural cycle suggests the possibility of a much longer hiatus over roughly 2023–2061.
Final-revised paper