Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Dating hiatuses: a statistical model of the recent slowdown in global warming and the next one
Department of Economics, University of Missouri, Missouri, USA
now at: Energy Industry Research Group, Korea Energy Economics Institute, Ulsan, Republic of Korea
Related subject area
Earth system change: climate predictionReconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system modelPInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experimentsEl Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability in equilibrated warmer climatesInvestigation of the extreme wet–cold compound events changes between 2025–2049 and 1980–2004 using regional simulations in GreeceConstraining low-frequency variability in climate projections to predict climate on decadal to multi-decadal timescales – a poor man's initialized prediction systemResilience of UK crop yields to compound climate changeEvaluating uncertainty in aerosol forcing of tropical precipitation shiftsA non-stationary extreme-value approach for climate projection ensembles: application to snow loads in the French AlpsEnsemble forecast of an index of the Madden Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on circulation analogsAtmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea region until 2100Balanced estimate and uncertainty assessment of European climate change using the large EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensembleExtreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimatesReduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on future glacial cyclesIs time a variable like the others in multivariate statistical downscaling and bias correction?Trivial improvements in predictive skill due to direct reconstruction of the global carbon cycleAbrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping pointBayesian estimation of Earth's climate sensitivity and transient climate response from observational warming and heat content datasetsComparison of CMIP6 historical climate simulations and future projected warming to an empirical model of global climateAssessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-EarthA new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern MediterraneanEmergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational dataReduced global warming from CMIP6 projections when weighting models by performance and independenceEmergent constraints on transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 modelsMultivariate bias corrections of climate simulations: which benefits for which losses?Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Niño events occurThe impact of regional climate model formulation and resolution on simulated precipitation in AfricaBayesian deconstruction of climate sensitivity estimates using simple models: implicit priors and the confusion of the inverseIntensification of the hydrological cycle expected in West Africa over the 21st centuryWinter hydrometeorological extreme events modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation in southern OntarioInvestigating ENSO and its teleconnections under climate change in an ensemble view – a new perspectiveHuman influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018September Arctic sea ice minimum prediction – a skillful new statistical approachESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testingPredicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptakeA mathematical approach to understanding emergent constraintsSeasonal prediction skill of East Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5 modelsAssessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictionsProjections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °CChanges in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensembleRegional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature changeIrreversible ocean thermal expansion under carbon dioxide removalChanges in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocolsSelecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble propertiesReturn levels of temperature extremes in southern PakistanOn the meaning of independence in climate scienceMinimal change of thermal continentality in Slovakia within the period 1961–2013Lifetime of soil moisture perturbations in a coupled land–atmosphere simulationThe ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM): using scaling to forecast global-scale macroweather from months to decadesIce supersaturation and the potential for contrail formation in a changing climate
Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Tammas Loughran, Aaron Spring, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 101–119,Short summary
For the first time, our decadal prediction system based on Max Planck Institute Earth System Model enables prognostic atmospheric CO2 with an interactive carbon cycle. The evolution of CO2 fluxes and atmospheric CO2 growth is reconstructed well by assimilating data products; retrospective predictions show high confidence in predicting changes in the next year. The Earth system predictions provide valuable inputs for understanding the global carbon cycle and informing climate-relevant policy.
Aobo Liu, John C. Moore, and Yating Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 39–53,Short summary
Permafrost thaws and releases carbon (C) as the Arctic warms. Most earth system models (ESMs) have poor estimates of C stored now, so their future C losses are much lower than using the permafrost C model with climate inputs from six ESMs. Bias-corrected soil temperatures and plant productivity plus geoengineering lowering global temperatures from a no-mitigation baseline scenario to a moderate emissions level keep C in the soil worth about USD 0–70 (mean 20) trillion in climate damages by 2100.
Yiyu Zheng, Maria Rugenstein, Patrick Pieper, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, and Johanna Baehr
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1611–1623,Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the dominant climatic phenomena in the equatorial Pacific. Understanding and predicting how ENSO might change in a warmer climate is both societally and scientifically important. We use 1000-year-long simulations from seven climate models to analyze ENSO in an idealized stable climate. We show that ENSO will be weaker and last shorter under the warming, while the skill of ENSO prediction will unlikely change.
Iason Markantonis, Diamando Vlachogiannis, Athanasios Sfetsos, and Ioannis Kioutsioukis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1491–1504,Short summary
This work focuses on the study of daily wet–cold compound events in Greece in the period November–April. We firstly study the historic period 1980–2004 in which we validate projection models with observations. Then we compare the model results with future period 2025–2049 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The aim of the study is to calculate the probability of the events and to locate the areas where those are higher and how the probabilities will change at the future.
Rashed Mahmood, Markus G. Donat, Pablo Ortega, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Margarida Samsó, and Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1437–1450,Short summary
Near-term climate change projections are strongly affected by the uncertainty from internal climate variability. Here we present a novel approach to reduce such uncertainty by constraining decadal-scale variability in the projections using observations. The constrained ensembles show significant added value over the unconstrained ensemble in predicting global climate 2 decades ahead. We also show the applicability of regional constraints for attributing predictability to certain ocean regions.
Louise J. Slater, Chris Huntingford, Richard F. Pywell, John W. Redhead, and Elizabeth J. Kendon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1377–1396,Short summary
This work considers how wheat yields are affected by weather conditions during the three main wheat growth stages in the UK. Impacts are strongest in years with compound weather extremes across multiple growth stages. Future climate projections are beneficial for wheat yields, on average, but indicate a high risk of unseen weather conditions which farmers may struggle to adapt to and mitigate against.
Amy H. Peace, Ben B. B. Booth, Leighton A. Regayre, Ken S. Carslaw, David M. H. Sexton, Céline J. W. Bonfils, and John W. Rostron
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1215–1232,Short summary
Anthropogenic aerosol emissions have been linked to driving climate responses such as shifts in the location of tropical rainfall. However, the interaction of aerosols with climate remains one of the most uncertain aspects of climate modelling and limits our ability to predict future climate change. We use an ensemble of climate model simulations to investigate what impact the large uncertainty in how aerosols interact with climate has on predicting future tropical rainfall shifts.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1059–1075,Short summary
Anticipating risks related to climate extremes is critical for societal adaptation to climate change. In this study, we propose a statistical method in order to estimate future climate extremes from past observations and an ensemble of climate change simulations. We apply this approach to snow load data available in the French Alps at 1500 m elevation and find that extreme snow load is projected to decrease by −2.9 kN m−2 (−50 %) between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for a high-emission scenario.
Meriem Krouma, Riccardo Silini, and Pascal Yiou
We present a simple system to forecast the MJO. We are using atmospheric circulation as input to our system. We found a good skill forecast of the MJO amplitude within 40 days using this methodology. Comparing our results with ECMWF and machine learning forecasts confirmed the good skill of our system.
Ole Bøssing Christensen, Erik Kjellström, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, and Hans Eberhard Markus Meier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 133–157,Short summary
The Baltic Sea Region is very sensitive to climate change, whose impacts could easily exacerbate biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. Models show a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the south during summer. New results improve estimates of future climate change.
Guillaume Evin, Samuel Somot, and Benoit Hingray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1543–1569,Short summary
This research paper proposes an assessment of mean climate change responses and related uncertainties over Europe for mean seasonal temperature and total seasonal precipitation. An advanced statistical approach is applied to a large ensemble of 87 high-resolution EURO-CORDEX projections. For the first time, we provide a comprehensive estimation of the relative contribution of GCMs and RCMs, RCP scenarios, and internal variability to the total variance of a very large ensemble.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kalyn Dorheim, Michael Wehner, and Ruby Leung
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1427–1501,Short summary
We address the question of how large an initial condition ensemble of climate model simulations should be if we are concerned with accurately projecting future changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We find that for most cases (and both models considered), an ensemble of 20–25 members is sufficient for many extreme metrics, spatial scales and time horizons. This may leave computational resources to tackle other uncertainties in climate model simulations with our ensembles.
Stefanie Talento and Andrey Ganopolski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1275–1293,Short summary
We propose a model for glacial cycles and produce an assessment of possible trajectories for the next 1 million years. Under natural conditions, the next glacial inception would most likely occur ∼50 kyr after present. We show that fossil-fuel CO2 releases can have an extremely long-term effect. Potentially achievable CO2 anthropogenic emissions during the next centuries will most likely provoke ice-free conditions in the Northern Hemisphere landmasses throughout the next half a million years.
Yoann Robin and Mathieu Vrac
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1253–1273,Short summary
We propose a new multivariate downscaling and bias correction approach called
time-shifted multivariate bias correction, which aims to correct temporal dependencies in addition to inter-variable and spatial ones. Our method is evaluated in a
perfect model experimentcontext where simulations are used as pseudo-observations. The results show a large reduction of the biases in the temporal properties, while inter-variable and spatial dependence structures are still correctly adjusted.
Aaron Spring, István Dunkl, Hongmei Li, Victor Brovkin, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1139–1167,Short summary
Numerical carbon cycle prediction models usually do not start from observed carbon states due to sparse observations. Instead, only physical climate is reconstructed, assuming that the carbon cycle follows indirectly. Here, we test in an idealized framework how well this indirect and direct reconstruction with perfect observations works. We find that indirect reconstruction works quite well and that improvements from the direct method are limited, strengthening the current indirect use.
Johannes Lohmann, Daniele Castellana, Peter D. Ditlevsen, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 819–835,Short summary
Tipping of one climate subsystem could trigger a cascade of subsequent tipping points and even global-scale climate tipping. Sequential shifts of atmosphere, sea ice and ocean have been recorded in proxy archives of past climate change. Based on this we propose a conceptual model for abrupt climate changes of the last glacial. Here, rate-induced tipping enables tipping cascades in systems with relatively weak coupling. An early warning signal is proposed that may detect such a tipping.
Philip Goodwin and B. B. Cael
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 709–723,Short summary
Climate sensitivityis a key measure of how sensitive Earth's climate is to human release of greenhouse gasses, such as from fossil fuels. However, there is still uncertainty as to the value of climate sensitivity, in part because different climate feedbacks operate over multiple timescales. This study assesses hundreds of millions of climate simulations against historical observations to reduce uncertainty in climate sensitivity and future climate warming.
Laura A. McBride, Austin P. Hope, Timothy P. Canty, Brian F. Bennett, Walter R. Tribett, and Ross J. Salawitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 545–579,Short summary
We use a reduced-complexity climate model trained by observations to show that at the current rate of human release of CO2, total cumulative emissions will pass the 66 % likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5° or 2°C in about 10 and 35 years, respectively. We also show that complex climate models often used to guide policy tend to warm faster than observed over the past few decades. To achieve the Paris Climate Agreement, CO2 and CH4 emissions must be severely curtailed in the next decade.
Roberto Bilbao, Simon Wild, Pablo Ortega, Juan Acosta-Navarro, Thomas Arsouze, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Rubén Cruz-García, Ivana Cvijanovic, Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Emanuel Dutra, Pablo Echevarría, An-Chi Ho, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Núria Pérez-Zanon, Arthur Ramos, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Valentina Sicardi, Etienne Tourigny, and Javier Vegas-Regidor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 173–196,Short summary
This paper presents and evaluates a set of retrospective decadal predictions with the EC-Earth3 climate model. These experiments successfully predict past changes in surface air temperature but show poor predictive capacity in the subpolar North Atlantic, a well-known source region of decadal climate variability. The poor predictive capacity is linked to an initial shock affecting the Atlantic Ocean circulation, ultimately due to a suboptimal representation of the Labrador Sea density.
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149,Short summary
Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.
Manuel Schlund, Axel Lauer, Pierre Gentine, Steven C. Sherwood, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1233–1258,Short summary
As an important measure of climate change, the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) describes the change in surface temperature after a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) show a wide range in ECS. Emergent constraints are a technique to reduce uncertainties in ECS with observational data. Emergent constraints developed with data from CMIP phase 5 show reduced skill and higher ECS ranges when applied to CMIP6 data.
Christopher H. O'Reilly, Daniel J. Befort, and Antje Weisheimer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1033–1049,Short summary
This study examines how the output of large single-model ensembles can be calibrated using observational data to provide improved future projections over Europe. Using an out-of-sample
imperfect modeltest, in which calibration techniques are applied to individual climate model realisations, these techniques are shown to generally improve the reliability of European climate projections for the next 40 years, particularly for regional surface temperature.
Lukas Brunner, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Anna L. Merrifield, Ruth Lorenz, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 995–1012,Short summary
In this study, we weight climate models by their performance with respect to simulating aspects of historical climate and their degree of interdependence. Our method is found to increase projection skill and to correct for structurally similar models. The weighted end-of-century mean warming (2081–2100 relative to 1995–2014) is 3.7 °C with a likely (66 %) range of 3.1 to 4.6 °C for the strong climate change scenario SSP5-8.5; this is a reduction of 0.4 °C compared with the unweighted mean.
Femke J. M. M. Nijsse, Peter M. Cox, and Mark S. Williamson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 737–750,Short summary
One of the key questions in climate science is how much more heating we will get for a given rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. A new generation of models showed that this might be more than previously expected. Comparing the new models to observed temperature rise since 1970, we show that there is no need to revise the estimate upwards. Air pollution, whose effect on climate warming is poorly understood, stopped rising, allowing us to better constrain the greenhouse gas signal.
Bastien François, Mathieu Vrac, Alex J. Cannon, Yoann Robin, and Denis Allard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 537–562,Short summary
Recently, multivariate bias correction (MBC) methods designed to adjust climate simulations have been proposed. However, they use different approaches, leading potentially to different results. Therefore, this study intends to intercompare four existing MBC methods to provide end users with aid in choosing such methods for their applications. To do so, a wide range of evaluation criteria have been used to assess the ability of MBC methods to correct statistical properties of climate models.
Hideo Shiogama, Ryuichi Hirata, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Noriko N. Ishizaki, Satoru Chatani, Masahiro Watanabe, Daniel Mitchell, and Y. T. Eunice Lo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 435–445,Short summary
Based on climate simulations, we suggested that historical warming increased chances of drought exceeding the severe 2015 event in equatorial Asia due to El Niño. The fire and fire emissions of CO2/PM2.5 will largely increase at 1.5 and 2 °C warming. If global warming reaches 3 °C, as is expected from the current mitigation policies, chances of fire and CO2/PM2.5 emissions exceeding the 2015 event become approximately 100 %. Future climate policy has to consider these climate change effects.
Minchao Wu, Grigory Nikulin, Erik Kjellström, Danijel Belušić, Colin Jones, and David Lindstedt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 377–394,Short summary
Regional Climate Models constitute a downscaling tool to provide high-resolution data for impact and adaptation studies. However, there is no unique definition of the added value of downscaling as it depends on many factors. We investigate the impact of spatial resolution and model formulation on downscaled rainfall in Africa. Our results show that improvements in downscaled rainfall compared to the driving reanalysis are often related to model formulation and not always to higher resolution.
James D. Annan and Julia C. Hargreaves
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 347–356,Short summary
We explore the implicit assumptions that underlie many published probabilistic estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity – that is, the amount the climate will warm under a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. We demonstrate that many such estimates have made assumptions that would be difficult to justify and show how the calculations can be repeated in a more defensible manner. Our results show some significant differences from previous calculations.
Stella Todzo, Adeline Bichet, and Arona Diedhiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 319–328,Short summary
This study uses climate projections over West Africa to investigate the future changes in different aspects of its hydrological cycle. Over the 21st century, temperatures are expected to increase at a faster rate (+0.5 °C per decade) than the global average (+0.3 °C per decade), leading to an intensification of the hydrological cycle on average of +11 % per °C over the Sahel (more intense precipitation and longer dry spells) and +3 % per °C over the Guinea Coast (more intense precipitation).
Olivier Champagne, Martin Leduc, Paulin Coulibaly, and M. Altaf Arain
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 301–318,Short summary
Southern Ontario has seen more high flows in winter recently due to earlier snowmelt. We show that 10 mm of daily rain and temperature higher than 5 °C are necessary conditions to generate winter high flows in the historical period. These conditions are associated with high pressure on the east coast bringing warm and wet conditions from the south. In the future, as snowfall decreases, warm events will generate less high flows, while rainfall will become a greater high-flow contributor.
Tímea Haszpra, Mátyás Herein, and Tamás Bódai
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 267–280,Short summary
We investigate the changes in the ENSO phenomenon and the alterations of its precipitation-related teleconnections in the CESM-LE. To avoid the disadvantages of the subjective choices of traditional temporal methods, we use an ensemble-based snapshot framework providing instantaneous quantities computed over the ensemble dimension of the simulation. We find that ENSO teleconnections undergo considerable changes, and the ENSO amplitude remarkably increases by 2100.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Pascal Yiou, Hylke de Vries, Erik van Meijgaard, Andrew Stepek, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Cecilia Costella, Roop Singh, and Claudia Tebaldi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 271–286,Short summary
The effect of human activities on the probability of winter wind storms like the ones that occurred in Western Europe in January 2018 is analysed using multiple model ensembles. Despite a significant probability decline in observations, we find no significant change in probabilities due to human influence on climate so far. However, such extreme events are likely to be slightly more frequent in the future. The observed decrease in storminess is likely to be due to increasing roughness.
Monica Ionita, Klaus Grosfeld, Patrick Scholz, Renate Treffeisen, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 189–203,Short summary
Based on a simple statistical model we show that the September sea ice extent has a high predictive skill, up to 4 months ahead, based on previous months' oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Our statistical model skillfully captures the interannual variability of the September sea ice extent and could provide a valuable tool for identifying relevant regions and oceanic and atmospheric parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic.
Gab Abramowitz, Nadja Herger, Ethan Gutmann, Dorit Hammerling, Reto Knutti, Martin Leduc, Ruth Lorenz, Robert Pincus, and Gavin A. Schmidt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 91–105,Short summary
Best estimates of future climate projections typically rely on a range of climate models from different international research institutions. However, it is unclear how independent these different estimates are, and, for example, the degree to which their agreement implies robustness. This work presents a review of the varied and disparate attempts to quantify and address model dependence within multi-model climate projection ensembles.
Nicole S. Lovenduski, Stephen G. Yeager, Keith Lindsay, and Matthew C. Long
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 45–57,Short summary
This paper shows that the absorption of carbon dioxide by the ocean is predictable several years in advance. This is important because fossil-fuel-derived carbon dioxide is largely responsible for anthropogenic global warming and because carbon dioxide emission management and global carbon cycle budgeting exercises can benefit from foreknowledge of ocean carbon absorption. The promising results from this new forecast system justify the need for additional oceanic observations.
Femke J. M. M. Nijsse and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 999–1012,Short summary
State-of-the-art climate models sometimes differ in their prediction of key aspects of climate change. The technique of
emergent constraintsuses observations of current climate to improve those predictions, using relationships between different climate models. Our paper first classifies the different uses of the technique, and continues with proposing a mathematical justification for their use. We also highlight when the application of emergent constraints might give biased predictions.
Bo Huang, Ulrich Cubasch, and Christopher Kadow
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 985–997,Short summary
We find that CMIP5 models show more significant improvement in predicting zonal winds with initialisation than without initialisation based on the knowledge that zonal wind indices can be used as potential predictors for the EASM. Given the initial conditions, two models improve the seasonal prediction skill of the EASM, while one model decreases it. The models have different responses to initialisation due to their ability to depict the EASM–ESNO coupled mode.
Sebastian Illing, Christopher Kadow, Holger Pohlmann, and Claudia Timmreck
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 701–715,
Jiawei Liu, Haiming Xu, and Jiechun Deng
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 427–439,Short summary
A novel method based on
present–futurerelationship in observed climate and model-simulated future climate is applied to give more reliable projections of East Asian summer monsoon intensity and associated precipitation changes at 1.5 and 2 °C warming levels. Projected future changes suggest decreased precipitation over the Meiyu belt and increased precipitation over the high latitudes of East Asia and central China, together with a considerable weakening of EASM intensity.
Michael Wehner, Dáithí Stone, Dann Mitchell, Hideo Shiogama, Erich Fischer, Lise S. Graff, Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Ludwig Lierhammer, Benjamin Sanderson, and Harinarayan Krishnan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 299–311,Short summary
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change challenged the scientific community to describe the impacts of stabilizing the global temperature at its 21st Conference of Parties. A specific target of 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels had not been seriously considered by the climate modeling community prior to the Paris Agreement. This paper analyzes heat waves in simulations designed for this target. We find there are reductions in extreme temperature compared to a 2 °C target.
Peter Greve, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 227–240,Short summary
Assessing projected hydroclimatological changes is crucial, but associated with large uncertainties. We statistically assess here the response of precipitation and water availability to global temperature change, enabling us to estimate the significance of drying/wetting tendencies under anthropogenic climate change. We further show that opting for a 1.5 K warming target just slightly influences the mean response but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes.
Dana Ehlert and Kirsten Zickfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 197–210,Short summary
This study uses a global climate model to explore the extent to which sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the ocean is reversible if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) declines. It is found that sea level continues to rise for several decades after atmospheric CO2 starts to decline and does not return to the pre-industrial level for over thousand years after atmospheric CO2 is restored to the pre-industrial concentration.
Michael F. Wehner, Kevin A. Reed, Burlen Loring, Dáithí Stone, and Harinarayan Krishnan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 187–195,Short summary
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios using a high-resolution global climate model. We find more frequent and intense tropical cyclones, but a reduction in weaker storms.
Nadja Herger, Gab Abramowitz, Reto Knutti, Oliver Angélil, Karsten Lehmann, and Benjamin M. Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 135–151,Short summary
Users presented with large multi-model ensembles commonly use the equally weighted model mean as a best estimate, ignoring the issue of near replication of some climate models. We present an efficient and flexible tool that finds a subset of models with improved mean performance compared to the multi-model mean while at the same time maintaining the spread and addressing the problem of model interdependence. Out-of-sample skill and reliability are demonstrated using model-as-truth experiments.
Maida Zahid, Richard Blender, Valerio Lucarini, and Maria Caterina Bramati
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1263–1278,Short summary
The southern part of Pakistan (Sindh province) has been exposed to frequent and intense temperature extremes recently and is highly vulnerable to their impacts due to lack of information on recurrence of extremes. In this paper for the first time we estimated the return levels of daily maximum temperatures and daily maximum wet-bulb temperatures over the different return periods in Sindh, which would help the local administrations to prioritize the regions in terms of adaptations.
James D. Annan and Julia C. Hargreaves
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 211–224,Short summary
The concept of independence has been frequently raised in climate science, but has rarely been defined and discussed in a theoretically robust and quantifiable manner. Improved understanding of this topic is critical to better understanding of climate change. In this paper, we introduce a unifying approach based on the statistical definition of independence, and illustrate with simple examples how it can be applied to practical questions.
Jozef Vilček, Jaroslav Škvarenina, Jaroslav Vido, Paulína Nalevanková, Radoslav Kandrík, and Jana Škvareninová
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 735–744,Short summary
Thermal continentality plays an important role not only in the basic characterisation of the climate in particular regions but also in the phytogeographic distribution of plants and ecosystem formation. Due to ongoing climate change, questions surrounding the changes of thermal continentality are very relevant. Our results show that the continentality of Slovakia increased in the period 1961 to 2013; however, this trend is not significant.
T. Stacke and S. Hagemann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 1–19,Short summary
This study evaluates the lifetime of soil moisture perturbations using an atmosphere-land GCM. We find memory of up to 9 months for root zone soil moisture. Interactions with other surface states result in significant but short-lived anomalies in surface temperature and more stable anomalies in leaf carbon content. As these anomalies can recur repeatedly, e.g. due to interactions with a deep-soil moisture reservoir, we conclude that soil moisture initialization may impact climate predictions.
S. Lovejoy, L. del Rio Amador, and R. Hébert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 637–658,Short summary
Numerical climate models forecast the weather well beyond the deterministic limit. In this “macroweather” regime, they are random number generators. Stochastic models can have more realistic noises and can be forced to converge to the real-world climate. Existing stochastic models do not exploit the very long atmospheric and oceanic memories. With skill up to decades, our new ScaLIng Macroweather Model (SLIMM) exploits this to make forecasts more accurate than GCMs.
E. A. Irvine and K. P. Shine
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 555–568,Short summary
Aviation impacts on climate via contrails, which are often clearly visible in the sky. Contrail formation requires particular cold/moist atmospheric conditions at aircraft cruise altitudes. Climate change is expected to change these conditions. Using simulations from several climate models we conclude that, by 2100, the probability of contrail formation could decrease from 11 to 7%, mostly due to changing conditions in the tropics. There is no consensus on the likely change in mid-latitudes.
Chen, X. and Tung, K. K.: Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration, Science, 345, 897–903, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1254937, 2014.
Chen, X. and Tung, K. K.: Variations in ocean heat uptake during surface warming hiatus, Nat. Commun., 7, 12541, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms12541, 2016.
Cowtan, K. and Way, R. G.: Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 1935–1944, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2297, 2014.
Drijfhout, S. S., Blaker, A. T., Josey, S. A., Nurser, A. J. G., Sinha, B., and Balmaseda, M. A.: Surface warming hiatus caused by increased heat uptake across multiple ocean basins, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7868–7874, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061456, 2014.
Enfield, D. B., Mestas-Nunez, A. M., and Trimble, P. J.: The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S., Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2077–2080, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012745, 2001.
Estrada, F., Perron, P., and Martínez-López, B.: Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes, Nat. Geosci., 6, 1050–1055, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1999, 2013.
Gulev, S. K., Latif, M., Keenlyside, N., Park, W., and Koltermann, K. P.: North Atlantic Ocean control on surface heat flux on multidecadal timescales, Nature, 499, 464–468, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12268, 2013.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P., von Schuckmann, K., Beerling, D. J., Cao, J., Marcott, S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Prather, M. J., Rohling, E. J., Shakun, J., Smith, P., Lacis, A., Russell, G., and Ruedy, R.: Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions, Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 577–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, 2017.
Held, I. M., Winton, M., Takahashi, K., Delworth, T., Zeng, F., and Vallis, G. K.: Probing the fast and slow components of global warming by returning abruptly to preindustrial forcing, J. Climate, 23, 2418–2427, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3466.1, 2010.
Hoesly, R. M., Smith, S. J., Feng, L., Klimont, Z., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Pitkanen, T., Seibert, J. J., Vu, L., Andres, R. J., Bolt, R. M., Bond, T. C., Dawidowski, L., Kholod, N., Kurokawa, J.-I., Li, M., Liu, L., Lu, Z., Moura, M. C. P., O'Rourke, P. R., and Zhang, Q.: Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS), Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 369–408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-369-2018, 2018.
Huber, M. and Knutti, R.: Natural variability, radiative forcing and climate response in the recent hiatus reconciled, Nat. Geosci., 7, 651–656, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2228, 2014.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1–27, 2013.
Karl, T. R., Arguez, A., Huang, B., Lawrimore, J. H., McMahon, J. R., Menne, M. J., Peterson, T. C., Vose, R. S., and Zhang, H.-M.: Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus, Science, 348, 1469–1472, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa5632, 2015.
Kaufmann, R. K., Kauppi, H., Mann, M. L., and Stock, J. H.: Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 11790–11793, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1102467108, 2011.
Kaufmann, R. K., Kauppi, H., Mann, M. L., and Stock, J. H.: Does temperature contain a stochastic trend: linking statistical results to physical mechanisms, Climatic Change, 118, 729–743, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0683-2, 2013.
Kaufmann, R. K., Kauppi, H., and Stock, J. H.: Emissions, concentrations and temperature: a time series analysis, Climatic Change, 77, 249–278, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9062-1, 2006a.
Kaufmann, R. K., Kauppi, H., and Stock, J. H.: The relationship between radiative forcing and temperature: what do statistical analyses of the instrumental temperature record measure?, Climatic Change, 77, 279–289, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9063-0, 2006b.
Kaufmann, R. K., Kauppi, H., and Stock, J. H.: Does temperature contain a stochastic trend? Evaluating conflicting statistical results, Climatic Change, 101, 395–405, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9711-2, 2010.
Kaufmann, R. K., Mann, M. L., Gopal, S., Liederman, J. A., Howe, P. D., Pretis, F., Tang, X., and Gilmore, M.: Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 61–71, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607032113, 2017.
Keenlyside, N. S., Latif, M., Jungclaus, J., Kornblueh, L., and Roeckner, E.: Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector, Nature, 453, 84–88, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06921, 2008.
Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A., Smith, R. O., Saunby, M., and Parker, D. E.: Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea-surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 1. Measurement and sampling uncertainties, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D14103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015218, 2011a.
Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A., Smith, R. O., Saunby, M., and Parker, D. E.: Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea-surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 2. Biases and homogenisation, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D14104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015220, 2011b.
Knight, J. R., Allan, R. J., Folland, C. K., Vellinga, M., and Mann, M. E.: A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024233, 2005.
Knutson, T. R., Zhang, R., and Horowitz, L. W.: Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century, Nat. Commun., 7, 13676, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13676, 2016.
Kosaka, Y. and Xie, S.-P.: Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling, Nature, 501, 403–416, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12534, 2013.
Lenton, T. M., Dakos, V., Bathiany, S., and Scheffer, M.: Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability, Sci. Rep.-UK, 7, 5940, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x, 2017.
Lindzen, R. S. and Giannitsis, C.: On the climatic implications of volcanic cooling, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 5929–5941, https://doi.org/10.1029/98JD00125, 1998.
Medhaug, I., Stolpe, M. B., Fischer, E. M., and Knutti, R.: Reconciling controversies about the `global warming hiatus', Nature, 545, 41–56, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature22315, 2017.
Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Fasullo, J. T., Hu, A., and Trenberth, K. E.: Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods, Nat. Clim. Change, 1, 360–364, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1229, 2011.
Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A., and Jones, P. D.: Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 dataset, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D08101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017187, 2012.
Myhre, G., Shindell, D., Bréon, F.-M., Collins, W., Fuglestvedt, J., Huang, J., Koch, D., Lamarque, J.-F., Lee, D., Mendoza, B., Nakajima, T., Robock, A., Stephens, G., Takemura, T., and Zhang, H.: Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing., in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 659–740, 2013.
Neely, III, R. R., Toon, O. B., Solomon, S., Vernier, J.-P., Alvarez, C., English, J. M., Rosenlof, K. H., Mills, M. J., Bardeen, C. G., Daniel, J. S., and Thayer, J. P.: Recent anthropogenic increases in SO2 from Asia have minimal impact on stratospheric aerosol, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 999–1004, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50263, 2013.
North, G. R.: Theory of energy-balance climate models, J. Atmos. Sci., 32, 2033–2043, 1975.
North, G. R. and Cahalan, R. F.: Predictability in a solvable stochastic climate model, J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 504–513, 1981.
North, G. R., Cahalan, R. F., and Coakley Jr., J. A.: Energy balance climate models, Rev. Geophys. Space Ge., 19, 91–121, https://doi.org/10.1029/RG019i001p00091, 1981.
Park, J. Y., Shin, K., and Whang, Y. J.: A semiparametric cointegrating regression: Investigating the effects of age distributions on consumption and saving, J. Econometrics, 157, 165–178, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2009.10.032, 2010.
Poppick, A., Moyer, E. J., and Stein, M. L.: Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record, Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology, and Oceanography, 3, 33–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-33-2017, 2017.
Pretis, F.: Econometric Models of Climate Systems: The Equivalence of Two-Component Energy Balance Models and Cointegrated VARs, University of Oxford, Department of Economics Discussion Paper, Number 750, 2015.
Pretis, F., Mann, M. L., and Kaufmann, R. K.: Testing competing models of the temperature hiatus: assessing the effects of conditioning variables and temporal uncertainties through sample-wide break detection, Climatic Change, 131, 705–718, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1391-5, 2015.
Roberts, C. D., Palmer, M. D., McNeall, D., and Collins, M.: Quantifying the likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 337–342, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2531, 2015.
Ropelewski, C. F. and Jones, P. D.: An extension of the Tahiti-Darwin Southern Oscillation Index, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 2161–2165, 1987.
Schmidt, G. A., Shindell, D. T., and Tsigaridis, K.: Reconciling warming trends, Nat. Geosci., 7, 158–160, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2105, 2014.
Sévellec, F. and Drijfhout, S. S.: A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018–2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend, Nat. Commun., 9, 3024, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05442-8, 2018.
Shindell, D. T.: Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 274–277, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2136, 2014.
Steinman, B. A., Mann, M. E., and Miller, S. K.: Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures, Science, 347, 988–991, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1257856, 2015.
Storelvmo, T., Leirvik, T., Lohmann, U., Phillips, P. C. B., and Wild, M.: Disentangling greenhouse warming and aerosol cooling to reveal Earth's climate sensitivity, Nat. Geosci., 9, 286–289, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2670, 2016.
Trenberth, K. E. and Shea, D. J.: Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L12704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026894, 2006.
Vernier, J.-P., Thomason, L.W., Pommereau, J.-P., Bourassa, A., Pelon, J., Garnier, A., Hauchecorne, A., Blanot, L., Trepte, C., Degenstein, D., and Vargas, F.: Major influence of tropical volcanic eruptions on the stratospheric aerosol layer during the last decade, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L12807, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047563, 2011.
Wyatt, M. A. and Curry, J. A.: Role for Eurasian Arctic shelf sea ice in a secularly varying hemispheric climate signal during the 20th century, Clim. Dynam., 42, 2763–2782, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1950-2, 2014.
Yao, S.-L., Huang, G., Wu, R.-G., and Qu, X.: The global warming hiatus – a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 123, 349–360, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1358-x, 2016.
We augment an energy balance model with a novel measure of the oceans' multidecadal temperatures cycles to assess the contributions of model forcings and natural variability to the so-called hiatus in global warming. The model partially explains the recent slowdown and explains nearly all of the subsequent warming. The natural cycle suggests the possibility of a much longer hiatus over roughly 2023–2061.
We augment an energy balance model with a novel measure of the oceans' multidecadal temperatures...