Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
Research article
11 Dec 2020
Research article |  | 11 Dec 2020

Dating hiatuses: a statistical model of the recent slowdown in global warming and the next one

J. Isaac Miller and Kyungsik Nam

Related subject area

Earth system change: climate prediction
Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model
Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Tammas Loughran, Aaron Spring, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 101–119,,, 2023
Short summary
PInc-PanTher estimates of Arctic permafrost soil carbon under the GeoMIP G6solar and G6sulfur experiments
Aobo Liu, John C. Moore, and Yating Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 39–53,,, 2023
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability in equilibrated warmer climates
Yiyu Zheng, Maria Rugenstein, Patrick Pieper, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, and Johanna Baehr
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1611–1623,,, 2022
Short summary
Investigation of the extreme wet–cold compound events changes between 2025–2049 and 1980–2004 using regional simulations in Greece
Iason Markantonis, Diamando Vlachogiannis, Athanasios Sfetsos, and Ioannis Kioutsioukis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1491–1504,,, 2022
Short summary
Constraining low-frequency variability in climate projections to predict climate on decadal to multi-decadal timescales – a poor man's initialized prediction system
Rashed Mahmood, Markus G. Donat, Pablo Ortega, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Carlos Delgado-Torres, Margarida Samsó, and Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1437–1450,,, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Chen, X. and Tung, K. K.: Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration, Science, 345, 897–903,, 2014. 
Chen, X. and Tung, K. K.: Variations in ocean heat uptake during surface warming hiatus, Nat. Commun., 7, 12541,, 2016. 
Cowtan, K. and Way, R. G.: Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 140, 1935–1944,, 2014. 
Drijfhout, S. S., Blaker, A. T., Josey, S. A., Nurser, A. J. G., Sinha, B., and Balmaseda, M. A.: Surface warming hiatus caused by increased heat uptake across multiple ocean basins, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7868–7874,, 2014. 
Enfield, D. B., Mestas-Nunez, A. M., and Trimble, P. J.: The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S., Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2077–2080,, 2001. 
Short summary
We augment an energy balance model with a novel measure of the oceans' multidecadal temperatures cycles to assess the contributions of model forcings and natural variability to the so-called hiatus in global warming. The model partially explains the recent slowdown and explains nearly all of the subsequent warming. The natural cycle suggests the possibility of a much longer hiatus over roughly 2023–2061.
Final-revised paper