Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1123–1132, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1123–1132, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020

Research article 11 Dec 2020

Research article | 11 Dec 2020

Dating hiatuses: a statistical model of the recent slowdown in global warming and the next one

J. Isaac Miller and Kyungsik Nam

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Cited articles

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Enfield, D. B., Mestas-Nunez, A. M., and Trimble, P. J.: The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S., Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2077–2080, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012745, 2001. 
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We augment an energy balance model with a novel measure of the oceans' multidecadal temperatures cycles to assess the contributions of model forcings and natural variability to the so-called hiatus in global warming. The model partially explains the recent slowdown and explains nearly all of the subsequent warming. The natural cycle suggests the possibility of a much longer hiatus over roughly 2023–2061.
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