Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1123–1132, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1123–1132, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020

Research article 11 Dec 2020

Research article | 11 Dec 2020

Dating hiatuses: a statistical model of the recent slowdown in global warming and the next one

J. Isaac Miller and Kyungsik Nam

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Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (10 Jul 2019) by Fubao Sun
AR by J. Isaac Miller on behalf of the Authors (10 Jul 2019)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (10 Aug 2019) by Fubao Sun
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (04 Oct 2019)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (02 Apr 2020) by Fubao Sun
AR by J. Isaac Miller on behalf of the Authors (03 Jun 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (14 Aug 2020) by Fubao Sun
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (26 Aug 2020)
RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (01 Sep 2020)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (17 Sep 2020) by Fubao Sun
AR by J. Isaac Miller on behalf of the Authors (23 Sep 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (13 Oct 2020) by Fubao Sun
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Short summary
We augment an energy balance model with a novel measure of the oceans' multidecadal temperatures cycles to assess the contributions of model forcings and natural variability to the so-called hiatus in global warming. The model partially explains the recent slowdown and explains nearly all of the subsequent warming. The natural cycle suggests the possibility of a much longer hiatus over roughly 2023–2061.
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