Dating hiatuses: a statistical model of the recent slowdown in global warming and the next one

Miller, J. Isaac; Nam, Kyungsik

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020

Articles | Volume 11, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 11, issue 4

Research article

|

11 Dec 2020

Research article |

| 11 Dec 2020

Dating hiatuses: a statistical model of the recent slowdown in global warming and the next one

J. Isaac Miller and Kyungsik Nam

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Final revised paper (published on 11 Dec 2020)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 03 Dec 2018)
Supplement to the preprint

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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RC1: 'recommend major revisions', Anonymous Referee #1, 03 Jan 2019
- AC1: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #1', J. Isaac Miller, 05 Jun 2019
RC2: 'Comments', Anonymous Referee #2, 10 May 2019
- AC2: 'Response to Anonymous Referee #2', J. Isaac Miller, 05 Jun 2019

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (10 Jul 2019) by Fubao Sun

AR by J. Isaac Miller on behalf of the Authors (10 Jul 2019) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (10 Aug 2019) by Fubao Sun

RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (04 Oct 2019)

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (02 Apr 2020) by Fubao Sun

AR by J. Isaac Miller on behalf of the Authors (03 Jun 2020) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (14 Aug 2020) by Fubao Sun

RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (26 Aug 2020)

RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (01 Sep 2020)

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (17 Sep 2020) by Fubao Sun

AR by J. Isaac Miller on behalf of the Authors (23 Sep 2020) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (13 Oct 2020) by Fubao Sun

AR by J. Isaac Miller on behalf of the Authors (13 Oct 2020) Manuscript

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Short summary

We augment an energy balance model with a novel measure of the oceans' multidecadal temperatures cycles to assess the contributions of model forcings and natural variability to the so-called hiatus in global warming. The model partially explains the recent slowdown and explains nearly all of the subsequent warming. The natural cycle suggests the possibility of a much longer hiatus over roughly 2023–2061.