Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1123-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
Research article
 | 
11 Dec 2020
Research article |  | 11 Dec 2020

Dating hiatuses: a statistical model of the recent slowdown in global warming and the next one

J. Isaac Miller and Kyungsik Nam

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Short summary
We augment an energy balance model with a novel measure of the oceans' multidecadal temperatures cycles to assess the contributions of model forcings and natural variability to the so-called hiatus in global warming. The model partially explains the recent slowdown and explains nearly all of the subsequent warming. The natural cycle suggests the possibility of a much longer hiatus over roughly 2023–2061.
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