Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
Research article
04 Dec 2020
Research article |  | 04 Dec 2020

Economic impacts of a glacial period: a thought experiment to assess the disconnect between econometrics and climate sciences

Marie-Noëlle Woillez, Gaël Giraud, and Antoine Godin

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Cited articles

Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: A new global reconstruction of temperature changes at the Last Glacial Maximum, Clim. Past, 9, 367–376,, 2013. a, b, c, d
Ansari, M. H. and Vink, A.: Vegetation history and palaeoclimate of the past 30 kyr in Pakistan as inferred from the palynology of continental margin sediments off the Indus Delta, Rev. Palaeobot. Palynol., 145, 201–216, 2007. a, b
Bamber, J. L., Westaway, R. M., Marzeion, B., and Wouters, B.: The land ice contribution to sea level during the satellite era, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 063008,, 2018. a
Bamber, J. L., Oppenheimer, M., Kopp, R. E., Aspinall, W. P., and Cooke, R. M.: Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 116, 11195–11200, 2019. a
Short summary
To illustrate the fact that future economic damage from global warming is often highly underestimated, we applied two different statistically based damage functions available in the literature to a global cooling of 4 °C. We show that the gross domestic product (GDP) projections obtained are at odds with the state of the planet during an ice age. We conclude that such functions do not provide relevant information on potential damage from a large climate change, be it cooling or warming.
Final-revised paper