Articles | Volume 16, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-169-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Jan 2025
Research article |
| 21 Jan 2025
| 21 Jan 2025
Future changes in compound explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in the North Atlantic
Ferran Lopez-Marti
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala, Sweden
Mireia Ginesta
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Davide Faranda
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Anna Rutgersson
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala, Sweden
Pascal Yiou
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Lichuan Wu
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Gabriele Messori
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Swedish Centre for Impacts of Climate Extremes (climes), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
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Clare M. Flynn, Julia Moemken, Joaquim G. Pinto, Michael K. Schutte, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 4431–4453, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4431-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4431-2025, 2025
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We created a new, publicly available, database of the top 50 most extreme European winter windstorms from each of four different meteorological input data sets covering the years 1995–2015. We found variability in all aspects of our database, from which storms were included in the top 50 storms for each input to the storms' spatial variability. We urge users of our database to consider the storms as identified from two or more input sources within our database where possible.
Kerry Emanuel, Tommaso Alberti, Stella Bourdin, Suzana J. Camargo, Davide Faranda, Emmanouil Flaounas, Juan Jesus Gonzalez-Aleman, Chia-Ying Lee, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Claudia Pasquero, Alice Portal, Hamish Ramsay, Marco Reale, and Romualdo Romero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 901–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-901-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-901-2025, 2025
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Storms strongly resembling hurricanes are sometimes observed to form well outside the tropics, even in polar latitudes. They behave capriciously, developing very rapidly and then dying just as quickly. We show that strong dynamical processes in the atmosphere can sometimes cause it to become much colder locally than the underlying ocean, creating the conditions for hurricanes to form but only over small areas and for short times. We call the resulting storms "CYCLOPs".
Davide Faranda, Lucas Taligrot, Pascal Yiou, and Nada Caud
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2222, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2222, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscience Communication (GC).
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We developed a free online game called ClimarisQ to help people better understand climate change and extreme weather. By playing the game, users learn how decisions about the environment, money, and public opinion affect future risks. We studied how players reacted and found that the game makes climate issues easier to grasp and encourages discussion. This shows that interactive tools like games can support learning and action on climate and environmental challenges.
Robin Noyelle, Davide Faranda, Yoann Robin, Mathieu Vrac, and Pascal Yiou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 817–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-817-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-817-2025, 2025
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Properties of extreme meteorological and climatological events are changing under human-caused climate change. Extreme event attribution methods seek to estimate the contribution of global warming in the probability and intensity changes of extreme events. Here we propose a procedure to estimate these quantities for the flow analogue method, which compares the observed event to similar events in the past.
Gabriele Messori, Emily Boyd, Joakim Nivre, and Elena Raffetti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3451, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3451, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
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Understanding impacts of climate extremes is very important for society and the economy. We identify three challenges restricting this understanding: limited availability and quality of impact data, difficulties in understanding why given impacts occur and lack of reliable projections of future impacts. We also identify key opportunities, including newly released datasets, recent methodological and technical advances and interdisciplinary collaborations between the social and natural sciences.
Laura Hasbini, Pascal Yiou, Laurent Boissier, and Arthur Perringaux
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3138, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3138, 2025
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Winter windstorms are the main natural hazard for Generali France. We present a method linking storm events to insurance claims, with a focus on clustered events (multiple storms hitting the same region within 96 h). These account for 85 % of losses since 1998 and include major events like Lothar and Klaus. Damaging storms are twice as likely to occur in clusters, underlining the need to account for their impact in risk, loss, and reinsurance modelling.
Valerio Lembo, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, and Flavio Emanuele Pons
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2189, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2189, 2025
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Hemispheric heatwaves have fundamental implications for ecosystems and societies. They are studied together with the large-scale atmospheric dynamics, through the lens of the poleward heat transports by planetary-scale waves. Extremely weak transports of heat towards the Poles are found to be associated with hemispheric heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Therefore, we conclude that heat transports are a clear indicator, and possibly a precursor of hemispehric heatwaves.
Michael K. Schutte, Alice Portal, Simon H. Lee, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 521–548, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-521-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-521-2025, 2025
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Large-scale motions in the atmosphere, namely atmospheric waves, greatly impact the weather that we experience at the Earth's surface. Here we investigate how waves in the troposphere (the lower 10 km of the atmosphere) and the stratosphere (above the troposphere) interact to affect surface weather. We find that tropospheric waves that are reflected back down by the stratosphere change weather patterns and temperatures in North America. These changes can indirectly affect the weather in Europe.
Sara Lindersson and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-128, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2025-128, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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The study of past temperature-related disasters requires information on socioeconomic impacts, hazard intensity and human exposure. This is often lacking in current disaster databases. SHEDIS-Temperature fills this gap by integrating impact records with information on disaster locations, high-resolution meteorological data, and population estimates. Covering 382 disasters in 71 countries (1979–2018), this dataset enables deeper analyses of heat-related risk and vulnerabilities.
Lia Rapella, Tommaso Alberti, Davide Faranda, and Philippe Drobinski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1219, 2025
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Extreme weather events pose increasing challenges for aviation, including flight disruptions and infrastructure damage. This study examines the influence of anthropogenic climate change on four recent major storms across Europe, the USA, and East Asia. Our research underscores the growing intensity of extreme storms, driven by human-induced climate change, underscoring the need to adapt aviation strategies to an increasingly hazardous environment.
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Stella Bourdin, Davide Faranda, and Mathieu Vrac
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-252, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-252, 2025
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The tracking of Tropical cyclones (TCs) remains a matter of interest for the investigation of observed and simulated tropical cyclones. In this study, Random Forest (RF), a machine learning approach, is considered to track TCs. RF associates TC occurrence or absence to different atmospheric configurations. Compared to trackers found in the literature, it shows similar performance for tracking TCs, better control over false alarm, more flexibility and reveal key variables allowing to detect TCs.
Camille Cadiou and Pascal Yiou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-1-2025, 2025
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Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe have huge societal impacts. This study focuses on extreme cold events, such as the winter of 1963 in France, which are expected to become rarer due to climate change. We use a light and efficient rare-event algorithm to simulate a large number of extreme cold winters over France to analyse their characteristics. We find that despite fewer occurrences, their intensity remains steady. We analyse prevailing atmospheric circulation during these events.
Camille Cadiou and Pascal Yiou
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3473, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3473, 2024
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Cold extremes significantly affect healthcare and energy systems. Global warming is expected to reduce these extremes. Our study indeed shows that very intense cold spells will become nearly impossible in France by the end of the 21st century for high levels of warming. However, we demonstrate that events as intense as the 1985 cold spell in France may still occur in the near future. These events are linked to specific atmospheric patterns that bring cold air from high latitudes into Europe.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7915–7962, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7915-2024, 2024
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Data-driven models are becoming a viable alternative to physics-based models for weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future. However, it is unclear whether they are as reliable as physics-based models when forecasting weather extremes. We evaluate their performance in forecasting near-surface cold, hot, and windy extremes globally. We find that data-driven models can compete with physics-based models and that the choice of the best model mainly depends on the region and type of extreme.
Kévin Dubois, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Erik Nilsson, and Anna Rutgersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, 2024
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Both extreme river discharge and storm surges can interact at the coast and lead to flooding. However, it is difficult to predict flood levels during such compound events because they are rare and complex. Here, we focus on the quantification of uncertainties and investigate the sources of limitations while carrying out such analyses at Halmstad, Sweden. Based on a sensitivity analysis, we emphasize that both the choice of data source and statistical methodology influence the results.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Stavros Dafis, Silvio Davolio, Davide Faranda, Christian Ferrarin, Katharina Hartmuth, Assaf Hochman, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Samira Khodayar, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Platon Patlakas, Michael Sprenger, and Iris Thurnherr
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2809, 2024
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Storm Daniel (2023) is one of the most catastrophic ones ever documented in the Mediterranean. Our results highlight the different dynamics and therefore the different predictability skill of precipitation, its extremes and impacts that have been produced in Greece and Libya, the two most affected countries. Our approach concerns a holistic analysis of the storm by articulating dynamics, weather prediction, hydrological and oceanographic implications, climate extremes and attribution theory.
Gabriele Messori, Antonio Segalini, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1207–1225, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024, 2024
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Simultaneous heatwaves or cold spells in remote geographical regions have potentially far-reaching impacts on society and the environment. Despite this, we have little knowledge of when and where these extreme events have occurred in the past decades. In this paper, we present a summary of past simultaneous heatwaves or cold spells and provide a computer program to enable other researchers to study them.
Marco Gaetani, Gabriele Messori, Francesco S. R. Pausata, Shivangi Tiwari, M. Carmen Alvarez Castro, and Qiong Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1735–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1735-2024, 2024
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Palaeoclimate reconstructions suggest that, around 6000 years ago, a greening of the Sahara took place, accompanied by climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere at middle to high latitudes. In this study, a climate model is used to investigate how this drastic environmental change in the Sahara impacted remote regions. Specifically, climate simulations reveal significant modifications in atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic, affecting North American and European climates.
Antonio Segalini, Jacopo Riboldi, Volkmar Wirth, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 997–1012, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-997-2024, 2024
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Planetary Rossby waves are created by topography and evolve in time. In this work, an analytical solution of this classical problem is proposed under the approximation of linear wave dynamics. The theory is able to describe reasonably well the evolution of the perturbation and compares well with full nonlinear simulations. Several relevant cases with single and double zonal jets are assessed with the theoretical framework
Sebastian Sippel, Clair Barnes, Camille Cadiou, Erich Fischer, Sarah Kew, Marlene Kretschmer, Sjoukje Philip, Theodore G. Shepherd, Jitendra Singh, Robert Vautard, and Pascal Yiou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, 2024
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Winter temperatures in central Europe have increased. But cold winters can still cause problems for energy systems, infrastructure, or human health. Here we tested whether a record-cold winter, such as the one observed in 1963 over central Europe, could still occur despite climate change. The answer is yes: it is possible, but it is very unlikely. Our results rely on climate model simulations and statistical rare event analysis. In conclusion, society must be prepared for such cold winters.
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, and Robert Vautard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 959–983, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024, 2024
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We introduce ClimaMeter, a tool offering real-time insights into extreme-weather events. Our tool unveils how climate change and natural variability affect these events, affecting communities worldwide. Our research equips policymakers and the public with essential knowledge, fostering informed decisions and enhancing climate resilience. We analysed two distinct events, showcasing ClimaMeter's global relevance.
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
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The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
Derrick Muheki, Axel A. J. Deijns, Emanuele Bevacqua, Gabriele Messori, Jakob Zscheischler, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 429–466, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-429-2024, 2024
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Climate change affects the interaction, dependence, and joint occurrence of climate extremes. Here we investigate the joint occurrence of pairs of river floods, droughts, heatwaves, crop failures, wildfires, and tropical cyclones in East Africa under past and future climate conditions. Our results show that, across all future warming scenarios, the frequency and spatial extent of these co-occurring extremes will increase in this region, particularly in areas close to the Nile and Congo rivers.
Lucas Fery and Davide Faranda
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 439–461, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-439-2024, 2024
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In this study, we analyse warm-season derechos – a type of severe convective windstorm – in France between 2000 and 2022, identifying 38 events. We compare their frequency and features with other countries. We also examine changes in the associated large-scale patterns. We find that convective instability has increased in southern Europe. However, the attribution of these changes to natural climate variability, human-induced climate change or a combination of both remains unclear.
Leonardo Olivetti and Gabriele Messori
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2347–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2347-2024, 2024
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In the last decades, weather forecasting up to 15 d into the future has been dominated by physics-based numerical models. Recently, deep learning models have challenged this paradigm. However, the latter models may struggle when forecasting weather extremes. In this article, we argue for deep learning models specifically designed to handle extreme events, and we propose a foundational framework to develop such models.
Julika Zinke, Ernst Douglas Nilsson, Piotr Markuszewski, Paul Zieger, Eva Monica Mårtensson, Anna Rutgersson, Erik Nilsson, and Matthew Edward Salter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 1895–1918, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-1895-2024, 2024
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We conducted two research campaigns in the Baltic Sea, during which we combined laboratory sea spray simulation experiments with flux measurements on a nearby island. To combine these two methods, we scaled the laboratory measurements to the flux measurements using three different approaches. As a result, we derived a parameterization that is dependent on wind speed and wave state for particles with diameters 0.015–10 μm. This parameterization is applicable to low-salinity waters.
Kévin Dubois, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Erik Nilsson, and Anna Rutgersson
Ocean Sci., 20, 21–30, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-21-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-21-2024, 2024
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Coastal floods occur due to extreme sea levels (ESLs) which are difficult to predict because of their rarity. Long records of accurate sea levels at the local scale increase ESL predictability. Here, we apply a machine learning technique to extend sea level observation data in the past based on a neighbouring tide gauge. We compared the results with a linear model. We conclude that both models give reasonable results with a better accuracy towards the extremes for the machine learning model.
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Henk Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Salée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, 2023
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In this work, we draw on paleoreords, observations and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is considered conceivable but currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
Emma Holmberg, Gabriele Messori, Rodrigo Caballero, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 737–765, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-737-2023, 2023
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We analyse the duration of large-scale patterns of air movement in the atmosphere, referred to as persistence, and whether unusually persistent patterns favour warm-temperature extremes in Europe. We see no clear relationship between summertime heatwaves and unusually persistent patterns. This suggests that heatwaves do not necessarily require the continued flow of warm air over a region and that local effects could be important for their occurrence.
Meriem Krouma, Riccardo Silini, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 273–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-273-2023, 2023
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We present a simple system to forecast the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). We use atmospheric circulation as input to our system. We found a good-skill forecast of the MJO amplitude within 40 d using this methodology. Comparing our results with ECMWF and machine learning forecasts confirmed the good skill of our system.
Axel Kleidon, Gabriele Messori, Somnath Baidya Roy, Ira Didenkulova, and Ning Zeng
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 241–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-241-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-241-2023, 2023
Patrick Johannes Stoll, Rune Grand Graversen, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1-2023, 2023
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The atmosphere is in motion and hereby transporting warm, cold, moist, and dry air to different climate zones. In this study, we investigate how this transport of energy organises in different manners. Outside the tropics, atmospheric waves of sizes between 2000 and 8000 km, which we perceive as cyclones from the surface, transport most of the energy and moisture poleward. In the winter, large-scale weather situations become very important for transporting energy into the polar regions.
Lucía Gutiérrez-Loza, Erik Nilsson, Marcus B. Wallin, Erik Sahlée, and Anna Rutgersson
Biogeosciences, 19, 5645–5665, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5645-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5645-2022, 2022
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The exchange of CO2 between the ocean and the atmosphere is an essential aspect of the global carbon cycle and is highly relevant for the Earth's climate. In this study, we used 9 years of in situ measurements to evaluate the temporal variability in the air–sea CO2 fluxes in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, using this long record, we assessed the effect of atmospheric and water-side mechanisms controlling the efficiency of the air–sea CO2 exchange under different wind-speed conditions.
Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1311–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022, 2022
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We analyze the atmospheric circulation leading to impactful extreme events for the calendar year 2021 such as the Storm Filomena, Westphalia floods, Hurricane Ida and Medicane Apollo. For some of the events, we find that climate change has contributed to their occurrence or enhanced their intensity; for other events, we find that they are unprecedented. Our approach underscores the importance of considering changes in the atmospheric circulation when performing attribution studies.
Gabriele Messori, Marlene Kretschmer, Simon H. Lee, and Vivien Wendt
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1215–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022, 2022
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Over 10 km above the ground, there is a region of the atmosphere called the stratosphere. While there is very little air in the stratosphere itself, its interactions with the lower parts of the atmosphere – where we live – can affect the weather. Here we study a specific example of such an interaction, whereby processes occurring at the boundary of the stratosphere can lead to a continent-wide drop in temperatures in North America during winter.
Valerio Lembo, Federico Fabiano, Vera Melinda Galfi, Rune Grand Graversen, Valerio Lucarini, and Gabriele Messori
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1037–1062, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1037-2022, 2022
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Eddies in mid-latitudes characterize the exchange of heat between the tropics and the poles. This exchange is largely uneven, with a few extreme events bearing most of the heat transported across latitudes in a season. It is thus important to understand what the dynamical mechanisms are behind these events. Here, we identify recurrent weather regime patterns associated with extreme transports, and we identify scales of mid-latitudinal eddies that are mostly responsible for the transport.
Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons and Davide Faranda
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 8, 155–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-155-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-155-2022, 2022
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The objective motivating this study is the assessment of the impacts of winter climate extremes, which requires accurate simulation of snowfall. However, climate simulation models contain physical approximations, which result in biases that must be corrected using past data as a reference. We show how to exploit simulated temperature and precipitation to estimate snowfall from already bias-corrected variables, without requiring the elaboration of complex, multivariate bias adjustment techniques.
Meriem Krouma, Pascal Yiou, Céline Déandreis, and Soulivanh Thao
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4941–4958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4941-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4941-2022, 2022
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We evaluated the skill of a stochastic weather generator (SWG) to forecast precipitation at different time scales and in different areas of western Europe from analogs of Z500 hPa. The SWG has the skill to simulate precipitation for 5 and 10 d. We found that forecast weaknesses can be associated with specific weather patterns. The comparison with ECMWF forecasts confirms the skill of our model. This work is important because it provides information about weather forecasts over specific areas.
Miriam D'Errico, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Soulivanh Tao, Cesare Nardini, Frank Lunkeit, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 961–992, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-961-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-961-2022, 2022
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Climate change is already affecting weather extremes. In a warming climate, we will expect the cold spells to decrease in frequency and intensity. Our analysis shows that the frequency of circulation patterns leading to snowy cold-spell events over Italy will not decrease under business-as-usual emission scenarios, although the associated events may not lead to cold conditions in the warmer scenarios.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
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Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Linh N. Luu, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou, and Jean-Michel Soubeyroux
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 687–702, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-687-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-687-2022, 2022
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This study downscales climate information from EURO-CORDEX (approx. 12 km) output to a higher horizontal resolution (approx. 3 km) for the south of France. We also propose a matrix of different indices to evaluate the high-resolution precipitation output. We find that a higher resolution reproduces more realistic extreme precipitation events at both daily and sub-daily timescales. Our results and approach are promising to apply to other Mediterranean regions and climate impact studies.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
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Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Bérengère Dubrulle, François Daviaud, Davide Faranda, Louis Marié, and Brice Saint-Michel
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 29, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-17-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-17-2022, 2022
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Present climate models discuss climate change but show no sign of bifurcation in the future. Is this because there is none or because they are in essence too simplified to be able to capture them? To get elements of an answer, we ran a laboratory experiment and discovered that the answer is not so simple.
Anna Rutgersson, Erik Kjellström, Jari Haapala, Martin Stendel, Irina Danilovich, Martin Drews, Kirsti Jylhä, Pentti Kujala, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Kirsten Halsnæs, Ilari Lehtonen, Anna Luomaranta, Erik Nilsson, Taru Olsson, Jani Särkkä, Laura Tuomi, and Norbert Wasmund
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 251–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, 2022
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A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event with a negative effect on people, society, or the environment; major events in the study area include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea level, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. In the future, an increase in sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves, and phytoplankton blooms is expected, and a decrease in cold spells and severe ice winters is anticipated.
Pascal Yiou and Nicolas Viovy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 997–1013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-997-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-997-2021, 2021
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This paper presents a model of tree ruin as a response to drought hazards. This model is inspired by a standard model of ruin in the insurance industry. We illustrate how ruin can occur in present-day conditions and the sensitivity of ruin and time to ruin to hazard statistical properties. We also show how tree strategies to cope with hazards can affect their long-term reserves and the probability of ruin.
Matthias Gröger, Christian Dieterich, Jari Haapala, Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann, Stefan Hagemann, Jaromir Jakacki, Wilhelm May, H. E. Markus Meier, Paul A. Miller, Anna Rutgersson, and Lichuan Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 939–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-939-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-939-2021, 2021
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Regional climate studies are typically pursued by single Earth system component models (e.g., ocean models and atmosphere models). These models are driven by prescribed data which hamper the simulation of feedbacks between Earth system components. To overcome this, models were developed that interactively couple model components and allow an adequate simulation of Earth system interactions important for climate. This article reviews recent developments of such models for the Baltic Sea region.
Davide Faranda, Mathieu Vrac, Pascal Yiou, Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons, Adnane Hamid, Giulia Carella, Cedric Ngoungue Langue, Soulivanh Thao, and Valerie Gautard
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 423–443, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-423-2021, 2021
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Machine learning approaches are spreading rapidly in climate sciences. They are of great help in many practical situations where using the underlying equations is difficult because of the limitation in computational power. Here we use a systematic approach to investigate the limitations of the popular echo state network algorithms used to forecast the long-term behaviour of chaotic systems, such as the weather. Our results show that noise and intermittency greatly affect the performances.
Jens Daniel Müller, Bernd Schneider, Ulf Gräwe, Peer Fietzek, Marcus Bo Wallin, Anna Rutgersson, Norbert Wasmund, Siegfried Krüger, and Gregor Rehder
Biogeosciences, 18, 4889–4917, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4889-2021, 2021
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Based on profiling pCO2 measurements from a field campaign, we quantify the biomass production of a cyanobacteria bloom in the Baltic Sea, the export of which would foster deep water deoxygenation. We further demonstrate how this biomass production can be accurately reconstructed from long-term surface measurements made on cargo vessels in combination with modelled temperature profiles. This approach enables a better understanding of a severe concern for the Baltic’s good environmental status.
Francesco S. R. Pausata, Gabriele Messori, Jayoung Yun, Chetankumar A. Jalihal, Massimo A. Bollasina, and Thomas M. Marchitto
Clim. Past, 17, 1243–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1243-2021, 2021
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Far-afield changes in vegetation such as those that occurred over the Sahara during the middle Holocene and the consequent changes in dust emissions can affect the intensity of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) rainfall and the lengthening of the monsoon season. This remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.
Gabriele Messori and Davide Faranda
Clim. Past, 17, 545–563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-545-2021, 2021
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The palaeoclimate community must both analyse large amounts of model data and compare very different climates. Here, we present a seemingly very abstract analysis approach that may be fruitfully applied to palaeoclimate numerical simulations. This approach characterises the dynamics of a given climate through a small number of metrics and is thus suited to face the above challenges.
Gabriele Messori, Nili Harnik, Erica Madonna, Orli Lachmy, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 233–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, 2021
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Atmospheric jets are a key component of the climate system and of our everyday lives. Indeed, they affect human activities by influencing the weather in many mid-latitude regions. However, we still lack a complete understanding of their dynamical properties. In this study, we try to relate the understanding gained in idealized computer simulations of the jets to our knowledge from observations of the real atmosphere.
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, 2021
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Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.
Peter Pfleiderer, Aglaé Jézéquel, Juliette Legrand, Natacha Legrix, Iason Markantonis, Edoardo Vignotto, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 103–120, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-103-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-103-2021, 2021
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In 2016, northern France experienced an unprecedented wheat crop loss. This crop loss was likely due to an extremely warm December 2015 and abnormally high precipitation during the following spring season. Using stochastic weather generators we investigate how severe the metrological conditions leading to the crop loss could be in current climate conditions. We find that December temperatures were close to the plausible maximum but that considerably wetter springs would be possible.
Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons and Davide Faranda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-352, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-352, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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The objective motivating this study is the assessment of the impacts of winter climate extremes, which requires accurate simulation of snowfall. However, climate simulation models contain physical approximations, which result in biases that must be corrected using past data as a reference. We show how to exploit simulated temperature and precipitation to estimate snowfall from already bias-corrected variables, without requiring the elaboration of complex, multivariate bias adjustment techniques.
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Short summary
Explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers are two main drivers of extreme weather in Europe. In this study, we investigate their joint changes in future climates over the North Atlantic. Our results show that both the concurrence of these events and the intensity of atmospheric rivers increase by the end of the century across different future scenarios. Furthermore, explosive cyclones associated with atmospheric rivers last longer and are deeper than those without atmospheric rivers.
Explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers are two main drivers of extreme weather in Europe. In...
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