Articles | Volume 14, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-55-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-55-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Jan 2023
Research article |
| 25 Jan 2023
| 25 Jan 2023
Northern-high-latitude permafrost and terrestrial carbon response to two solar geoengineering scenarios
Yangxin Chen
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal
University, Beijing, China
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal
University, Beijing, China
Qian Zhang
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal
University, Beijing, China
John C. Moore
College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal
University, Beijing, China
CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Beijing,
China
Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland
Olivier Boucher
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS, Paris,
France
Andy Jones
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Thibaut Lurton
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS, Paris,
France
Michael J. Mills
Atmospheric Chemistry, Observations, and Modeling Laboratory, National
Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Ulrike Niemeier
Atmosphere in the Earth System, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Roland Séférian
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS,
Toulouse, France
Simone Tilmes
Atmospheric Chemistry, Observations, and Modeling Laboratory, National
Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
Related authors
Min Cui, Duoying Ji, and Yangxin Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4100, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a study on the long-term effects of northern high-latitude permafrost responses and feedbacks under scenarios where temperatures either stabilize or overshoot. Our findings indicate that the additional warming due to permafrost carbon emissions is significantly greater during the cooling phase of temperature overshoot scenarios. Moreover, we discovered that the sensitivity of permafrost area to global warming is not uniform; it peaks between 1.5 °C and 2 °C.
Susanne Baur, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Terray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 667–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-667-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-667-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) could be used alongside mitigation to reduce global warming. Previous studies suggest that more atmospheric CO2 is taken up when SAI is deployed. Here, we look at the entire SAI deployment from start to after termination. We show how the initial CO2 uptake benefit, and hence lower mitigation burden, is reduced in later stages of SAI, where the reduction in natural CO2 uptake turns into an additional mitigation burden.
Zhihong Zhuo, Xinyue Wang, Yunqian Zhu, Ewa M. Bednarz, Eric Fleming, Peter R. Colarco, Shingo Watanabe, David Plummer, Georgiy Stenchikov, William Randel, Adam Bourassa, Valentina Aquila, Takashi Sekiya, Mark R. Schoeberl, Simone Tilmes, Wandi Yu, Jun Zhang, Paul J. Kushner, and Francesco S. R. Pausata
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1505, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1505, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
The 2022 Hunga eruption caused unprecedented stratospheric water injection, triggering unique atmospheric impacts. This study combines observations and model simulations, projecting a stratospheric water vapor anomaly lasting 4–7 years, with significant temperature variations and ozone depletion in the upper atmosphere lasting 7–10 years. These findings offer critical insights into the role of stratospheric water vapor in shaping climate and atmospheric chemistry.
Clarissa A. Kroll, Andrea Schneidereit, Robert C. J. Wills, Luis Kornblueh, and Ulrike Niemeier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1212, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1212, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is a prominent precipitation bias in climate models. We demonstrate its persistence from a resolution of 160 km up to 5 km. Its root cause lies in biased moisture transport from the subtropics to the inner tropics reducing convection and weakening tropical circulation. Increasing the surface wind speed addresses the bias, but deteriorates the global circulation. This highlights the importance of resolution hierarchies and parametrization development.
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Akihiko Ito, Kaoru Tachiiri, Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Victor Brovkin, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Elena Shevliakova
Biogeosciences, 22, 1447–1473, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1447-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1447-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global carbon budgets simulated by multiple Earth system models, using several types of simulations (CO2 concentration- and emission-driven experiments). We successfully identified problems with regard to the global carbon budget in each model. We also found urgent issues with regard to land use change CO2 emissions that should be solved in the latest generation of models.
Nikolina Mileva, Julia Pongratz, Vivek K. Arora, Akihiko Ito, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Sonali S. McDermid, Paul A. Miller, Daniele Peano, Roland Séférian, Yanwu Zhang, and Wolfgang Buermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-979, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Despite forests being so important for mitigating climate change, there are still uncertainties about how much the changes in forest cover contribute to the cooling/warming of the climate. Climate models and real-world observations often disagree about the magnitude and even the direction of these changes. We constrain climate models scenarios of widespread deforestation with satellite and in-situ data and show that models still have difficulties representing the movement of heat and water.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda R. Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul K. Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Xin Lan, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 965–1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-965-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and datasets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Anna Lange, Ulrike Niemeier, Alexei Rozanov, and Christian von Savigny
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1005, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper investigates whether it is possible to observe injections of 1 and 2 Tg S/y (sulphur per year) into the stratosphere with the currently active satellite occultation instruments. The calculations show that, considering the natural variability and the assumptions made here, the stratospheric aerosols formed from emissions of 1 and 2 Tg S/y in the quasi steady-state phase can be detected, which is not the case in the first month of the two-year initial phase.
Danny M. Leung, Jasper F. Kok, Longlei Li, David M. Lawrence, Natalie M. Mahowald, Simone Tilmes, and Erik Kluzek
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2311–2331, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2311-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2311-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study derives a gridded dust emission dataset for 1841–2000 by employing a combination of observed dust from core records and reanalyzed global dust cycle constraints. We evaluate the ability of global models to replicate the observed historical dust variability by using the emission dataset to force a historical simulation in an Earth system model. We show that prescribing our emissions forces the model to better match observations than other mechanistic models.
Zhicheng Luo, Duoying Ji, and Bodo Ahrens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-389, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-389, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models face challenges in accurately simulating cold regions' soil temperatures and snow conditions. By comparing different models, we found that the land surface models have a strong impact on simulation errors. Additionally, they struggle to account for snow’s insulating effect on the ground properly. Our findings highlight the need for improving frozen soil simulation, which is crucial for understanding the climate impacts of frozen soil.
Irina Melnikova, Philippe Ciais, Katsumasa Tanaka, Hideo Shiogama, Kaoru Tachiiri, Tokuta Yokohata, and Olivier Boucher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 257–273, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-257-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-257-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gases is important alongside CO2 for climate mitigation. Here, we look at how reducing their emissions compares to reducing CO2 using an Earth system model. While both types of gases contribute to warming, their regional climate impacts differ. Besides, the carbon cycle responds differently depending on whether climate change is driven by CO2 or non-CO2 gases. Considering both types of gases is important for carbon cycle analysis and climate mitigation strategies.
Prashant Chavan, Suvarna Fadnavis, Anton Laakso, Jean-Paul Vernier, Simone Tilmes, and Rolf Müller
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3825, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3825, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our simulations with volcanoes, when compared without volcanoes, show that volcanic aerosol precursors enter the tropical stratosphere, propagating upward and enhancing sulphate aerosol and heating. This stratospheric heating caused by the volcanoes reduces the amplitude of the QBO and disrupts its phases. Since QBO also modulates tropical convection and weather, we suggest including volcanic emissions and the QBO in the weather prediction model for a better forecast.
Detlef van Vuuren, Brian O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Louise Chini, Pierre Friedlingstein, Tomoko Hasegawa, Keywan Riahi, Benjamin Sanderson, Bala Govindasamy, Nico Bauer, Veronika Eyring, Cheikh Fall, Katja Frieler, Matthew Gidden, Laila Gohar, Andrew Jones, Andrew King, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Peter Lawrence, Chris Lennard, Jason Lowe, Camila Mathison, Shahbaz Mehmood, Luciana Prado, Qiang Zhang, Steven Rose, Alexander Ruane, Carl-Friederich Schleussner, Roland Seferian, Jana Sillmann, Chris Smith, Anna Sörensson, Swapna Panickal, Kaoru Tachiiri, Naomi Vaughan, Saritha Vishwanathan, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3765, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a set of six plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.
Min Cui, Duoying Ji, and Yangxin Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-4100, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We conducted a study on the long-term effects of northern high-latitude permafrost responses and feedbacks under scenarios where temperatures either stabilize or overshoot. Our findings indicate that the additional warming due to permafrost carbon emissions is significantly greater during the cooling phase of temperature overshoot scenarios. Moreover, we discovered that the sensitivity of permafrost area to global warming is not uniform; it peaks between 1.5 °C and 2 °C.
Kevin Wolf, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Susanne Rohs, and Yun Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 157–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-157-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-157-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis and airborne in situ observations from IAGOS are compared in terms of the representation of the contrail formation potential and the presence of supersaturation. Differences are traced back to biases in ERA5 relative humidity fields. Those biases are addressed by applying a quantile mapping technique that significantly improved contrail estimation based on post-processed ERA5 data.
John Patrick Dunne, Helene T. Hewitt, Julie Arblaster, Frédéric Bonou, Olivier Boucher, Tereza Cavazos, Paul J. Durack, Birgit Hassler, Martin Juckes, Tomoki Miyakawa, Matthew Mizielinski, Vaishali Naik, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O’Rourke, Robert Pincus, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Isla R. Simpson, and Karl E. Taylor
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3874, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3874, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript provides the motivation and experimental design for the seventh phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7) to coordinate community based efforts to answer key and timely climate science questions and facilitate delivery of relevant multi-model simulations for: prediction and projection, characterization, attribution and process understanding; vulnerability, impacts and adaptations analysis; national and international climate assessments; and society at large.
Fang Li, Xiang Song, Sandy P. Harrison, Jennifer R. Marlon, Zhongda Lin, L. Ruby Leung, Jörg Schwinger, Virginie Marécal, Shiyu Wang, Daniel S. Ward, Xiao Dong, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, and Roland Séférian
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8751–8771, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8751-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of historical fire simulations from 19 Earth system models in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Most models reproduce global totals, spatial patterns, seasonality, and regional historical changes well but fail to simulate the recent decline in global burned area and underestimate the fire response to climate variability. CMIP6 simulations address three critical issues of phase-5 models.
Simone Tilmes, Ewa M. Bednarz, Andrin Jörimann, Daniele Visioni, Douglas E. Kinnison, Gabriel Chiodo, and David Plummer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3586, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3586, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the details of a new multi-model intercomparison experiment to assess the effects of Stratospheric Aerosol Injections on stratospheric chemistry and dynamics and, therefore, ozone. In this experiment, all models will use the same prescribed stratospheric aerosol distribution and fixed sea-surface temperatures and sea ice. We discuss the advantages and differences of this more constrained experiment compared to previous more interactive model experiments.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Ben B. B. Booth, John Dunne, Veronika Eyring, Rosie A. Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew J. Gidden, Tomohiro Hajima, Chris D. Jones, Colin G. Jones, Andrew King, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, Jason Lowe, Nadine Mengis, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Chris Smith, Abigail C. Snyder, Isla R. Simpson, Abigail L. S. Swann, Claudia Tebaldi, Tatiana Ilyina, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roland Séférian, Bjørn H. Samset, Detlef van Vuuren, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8141–8172, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8141-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We discuss how, in order to provide more relevant guidance for climate policy, coordinated climate experiments should adopt a greater focus on simulations where Earth system models are provided with carbon emissions from fossil fuels together with land use change instructions, rather than past approaches that have largely focused on experiments with prescribed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We discuss how these goals might be achieved in coordinated climate modeling experiments.
Yunqian Zhu, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Valentina Aquila, Elisabeth Asher, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Christoph Brühl, Amy H. Butler, Parker Case, Simon Chabrillat, Gabriel Chiodo, Margot Clyne, Lola Falletti, Peter R. Colarco, Eric Fleming, Andrin Jörimann, Mahesh Kovilakam, Gerbrand Koren, Ales Kuchar, Nicolas Lebas, Qing Liang, Cheng-Cheng Liu, Graham Mann, Michael Manyin, Marion Marchand, Olaf Morgenstern, Paul Newman, Luke D. Oman, Freja F. Østerstrøm, Yifeng Peng, David Plummer, Ilaria Quaglia, William Randel, Samuel Rémy, Takashi Sekiya, Stephen Steenrod, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Rei Ueyama, Daniele Visioni, Xinyue Wang, Shingo Watanabe, Yousuke Yamashita, Pengfei Yu, Wandi Yu, Jun Zhang, and Zhihong Zhuo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3412, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3412, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To understand the climate impact of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption, we developed a climate model-observation comparison project. The paper describes the protocols and models that participate in the experiments. We designed several experiments to achieve our goal of this activity: 1. evaluate the climate model performance; 2. understand the Earth system responses to this eruption.
Benjamin Mark Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew Macdougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Seferian, Lori Sentman, Isla Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman Steinert, Abigail Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated zero emissions commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.
Philip J. Rasch, Haruki Hirasawa, Mingxuan Wu, Sarah J. Doherty, Robert Wood, Hailong Wang, Andy Jones, James Haywood, and Hansi Singh
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 7963–7994, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7963-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-7963-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a protocol to compare computer climate simulations to better understand a proposed strategy intended to counter warming and climate impacts from greenhouse gas increases. This slightly changes clouds in six ocean regions to reflect more sunlight and cool the Earth. Example changes in clouds and climate are shown for three climate models. Cloud changes differ between the models, but precipitation and surface temperature changes are similar when their cooling effects are made similar.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Genevieve Rose Lorenzo, Luke D. Ziemba, Avelino F. Arellano, Mary C. Barth, Ewan C. Crosbie, Joshua P. DiGangi, Glenn S. Diskin, Richard Ferrare, Miguel Ricardo A. Hilario, Michael A. Shook, Simone Tilmes, Jian Wang, Qian Xiao, Jun Zhang, and Armin Sorooshian
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2604, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Novel aerosol hygroscopicity analysis of CAMP2Ex field campaign data show low aerosol hygroscopicity values in Southeast Asia. Organic carbon from smoke decreases hygroscopicity to levels more like those in continental than in polluted marine regions. Hygroscopicity changes at cloud level demonstrate how surface particles impact clouds in the region affecting model representation of aerosol and cloud interactions in similar polluted marine regions with high organic carbon emissions.
Audran Borella, Olivier Boucher, Keith P. Shine, Marc Stettler, Katsumasa Tanaka, Roger Teoh, and Nicolas Bellouin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 9401–9417, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-9401-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work studies how to compare the climate impact of the CO2 emitted and contrails formed by a flight. This is applied to contrail avoidance strategies that would decrease climate impact of flights by changing the trajectory of aircraft to avoid persistent contrail formation, at the risk of increasing CO2 emissions. We find that different comparison methods lead to different quantification of the total climate impact of a flight but lead to similar decisions of whether to reroute an aircraft.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Yiliang Ma, Liyun Zhao, Rupert Gladstone, Thomas Zwinger, Michael Wolovick, and John C. Moore
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1102, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Totten Glacier in Antarctica holds a sea level potential of 3.85 m. Basal sliding and sub-shelf melt rate have important impact on ice sheet dynamics. We simulate the evolution of Totten Glacier using an ice flow model with different basal sliding parameterizations as well as sub-shelf melt rates to quantify their effect on the projections. We found the modelled glacier retreat and mass loss is sensitive to the choice of basal sliding parameterizations and maximal sub-shelf melt rate.
Christina V. Brodowsky, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriel Chiodo, Valentina Aquila, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Michael Höpfner, Anton Laakso, Graham W. Mann, Ulrike Niemeier, Giovanni Pitari, Ilaria Quaglia, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Takashi Sekiya, Simone Tilmes, Claudia Timmreck, Sandro Vattioni, Daniele Visioni, Pengfei Yu, Yunqian Zhu, and Thomas Peter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5513–5548, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The aerosol layer is an essential part of the climate system. We characterize the sulfur budget in a volcanically quiescent (background) setting, with a special focus on the sulfate aerosol layer using, for the first time, a multi-model approach. The aim is to identify weak points in the representation of the atmospheric sulfur budget in an intercomparison of nine state-of-the-art coupled global circulation models.
Sidiki Sanogo, Olivier Boucher, Nicolas Bellouin, Audran Borella, Kevin Wolf, and Susanne Rohs
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5495–5511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Relative humidity relative to ice (RHi) is a key variable in the formation of cirrus clouds and contrails. This study shows that the properties of the probability density function of RHi differ between the tropics and higher latitudes. In line with RHi and temperature variability, aircraft are likely to produce more contrails with bioethanol and liquid hydrogen as fuel. The impact of this fuel change decreases with decreasing pressure levels but increases from high latitudes to the tropics.
Kevin Wolf, Nicolas Bellouin, and Olivier Boucher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 5009–5024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5009-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-5009-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The contrail formation potential and its tempo-spatial distribution are estimated for the North Atlantic flight corridor. Meteorological conditions of temperature and relative humidity are taken from the ERA5 re-analysis and IAGOS. Based on IAGOS flight tracks, crossing length, size, orientation, frequency of occurrence, and overlap of persistent contrail formation areas are determined. The presented conclusions might provide a guide for statistical flight track optimization to reduce contrails.
Anton Laakso, Daniele Visioni, Ulrike Niemeier, Simone Tilmes, and Harri Kokkola
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 405–427, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-405-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-405-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study is the second in a two-part series in which we explore the dependency of the impacts of stratospheric sulfur injections on both the model employed and the strategy of injection utilized. The study uncovers uncertainties associated with these techniques to cool climate, highlighting how the simulated climate impacts are dependent on both the selected model and the magnitude of the injections. We also show that estimating precipitation impacts of aerosol injection is a complex task.
Daniele Visioni, Alan Robock, Jim Haywood, Matthew Henry, Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Sarah J. Doherty, John Moore, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Olivier Boucher, Abu Syed, Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Roland Séférian, and Ilaria Quaglia
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2583–2596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2583-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes a new experimental protocol for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). In it, we describe the details of a new simulation of sunlight reflection using the stratospheric aerosols that climate models are supposed to run, and we explain the reasons behind each choice we made when defining the protocol.
Susanne Baur, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Terray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 307–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-307-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-307-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Most solar radiation modification (SRM) simulations assume no physical coupling between mitigation and SRM. We analyze the impact of SRM on photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) and find that almost all regions have reduced PV and CSP potential compared to a mitigated or unmitigated scenario, especially in the middle and high latitudes. This suggests that SRM could pose challenges for meeting energy demands with solar renewable resources.
Danny M. Leung, Jasper F. Kok, Longlei Li, Natalie M. Mahowald, David M. Lawrence, Simone Tilmes, Erik Kluzek, Martina Klose, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2287–2318, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2287-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a premier Earth system model to evaluate a new desert dust emission scheme proposed in our companion paper. We show that our scheme accounts for more dust emission physics, hence matching better against observations than other existing dust emission schemes do. Our scheme's dust emissions also couple tightly with meteorology, hence likely improving the modeled dust sensitivity to climate change. We believe this work is vital for improving dust representation in climate models.
Marika M. Holland, Cecile Hannay, John Fasullo, Alexandra Jahn, Jennifer E. Kay, Michael Mills, Isla R. Simpson, William Wieder, Peter Lawrence, Erik Kluzek, and David Bailey
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1585–1602, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1585-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate evolves in response to changing forcings, as prescribed in simulations. Models and forcings are updated over time to reflect new understanding. This makes it difficult to attribute simulation differences to either model or forcing changes. Here we present new simulations which enable the separation of model structure and forcing influence between two widely used simulation sets. Results indicate a strong influence of aerosol emission uncertainty on historical climate.
Hauke Schmidt, Sebastian Rast, Jiawei Bao, Amrit Cassim, Shih-Wei Fang, Diego Jimenez-de la Cuesta, Paul Keil, Lukas Kluft, Clarissa Kroll, Theresa Lang, Ulrike Niemeier, Andrea Schneidereit, Andrew I. L. Williams, and Bjorn Stevens
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1563–1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1563-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1563-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A recent development in numerical simulations of the global atmosphere is the increase in horizontal resolution to grid spacings of a few kilometers. However, the vertical grid spacing of these models has not been reduced at the same rate as the horizontal grid spacing. Here, we assess the effects of much finer vertical grid spacings, in particular the impacts on cloud quantities and the atmospheric energy balance.
Abolfazl Rezaei, Khalil Karami, Simone Tilmes, and John C. Moore
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 91–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-91-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-91-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Water storage (WS) plays a profound role in the lives of people in the Middle East and North Africa as well as Mediterranean climate "hot spots". WS change by greenhouse gas (GHG) warming is simulated with and without stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI). WS significantly increases in the Arabian Peninsula and decreases around the Mediterranean under GHG. While SAI partially ameliorates GHG impacts, projected WS increases in dry regions and decreases in wet areas relative to present climate.
Ali Asaadi, Jörg Schwinger, Hanna Lee, Jerry Tjiputra, Vivek Arora, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yeray Santana-Falcón, and Chris D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 21, 411–435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon cycle feedback metrics are employed to assess phases of positive and negative CO2 emissions. When emissions become negative, we find that the model disagreement in feedback metrics increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties accumulate linearly with time. The geographical patterns of such metrics over land highlight that differences in response between tropical/subtropical and temperate/boreal ecosystems are a major source of model disagreement.
Yan Huang, Liyun Zhao, Michael Wolovick, Yiliang Ma, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 18, 103–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-103-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-103-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Geothermal heat flux (GHF) is an important factor affecting the basal thermal environment of an ice sheet and crucial for its dynamics. But it is poorly defined for the Antarctic ice sheet. We simulate the basal temperature and basal melting rate with eight different GHF datasets. We use specularity content as a two-sided constraint to discriminate between local wet or dry basal conditions. Two medium-magnitude GHF distribution maps rank well, showing that most of the inland bed area is frozen.
Chencheng Shen, John C. Moore, Heri Kuswanto, and Liyun Zhao
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1317–1332, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1317-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1317-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Indonesia Throughflow is an important pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian oceans and is part of a wind-driven circulation that is expected to reduce under greenhouse gas forcing. Solar dimming and sulfate aerosol injection geoengineering may reverse this effect. But stratospheric sulfate aerosols affect winds more than simply ``shading the sun''; they cause a reduction in water transport similar to that we simulate for a scenario with unabated greenhouse gas emissions.
Jim M. Haywood, Andy Jones, Anthony C. Jones, Paul Halloran, and Philip J. Rasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 15305–15324, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-15305-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The difficulties in ameliorating global warming and the associated climate change via conventional mitigation are well documented, with all climate model scenarios exceeding 1.5 °C above the preindustrial level in the near future. There is therefore a growing interest in geoengineering to reflect a greater proportion of sunlight back to space and offset some of the global warming. We use a state-of-the-art Earth-system model to investigate two of the most prominent geoengineering strategies.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Kevin Wolf, Nicolas Bellouin, and Olivier Boucher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 14003–14037, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14003-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-14003-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cirrus and contrails considerably impact Earth's energy budget. Such ice clouds can have a positive (warming) or negative (cooling) net radiative effect (RE), which depends on cloud and ambient properties. The effect of eight parameters on the cloud RE is estimated. In total, 283 500 radiative transfer simulations have been performed, spanning the typical parameter ranges associated with cirrus and contrails. Specific cases are selected and discussed. The data set is publicly available.
Simone Tilmes, Michael J. Mills, Yunqian Zhu, Charles G. Bardeen, Francis Vitt, Pengfei Yu, David Fillmore, Xiaohong Liu, Brian Toon, and Terry Deshler
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6087–6125, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6087-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6087-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We implemented an alternative aerosol scheme in the high- and low-top model versions of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) with a more detailed description of tropospheric and stratospheric aerosol size distributions than the existing aerosol model. This development enables the comparison of different aerosol schemes with different complexity in the same model framework. It identifies improvements compared to a range of observations in both the troposphere and stratosphere.
Wenfu Tang, Louisa K. Emmons, Helen M. Worden, Rajesh Kumar, Cenlin He, Benjamin Gaubert, Zhonghua Zheng, Simone Tilmes, Rebecca R. Buchholz, Sara-Eva Martinez-Alonso, Claire Granier, Antonin Soulie, Kathryn McKain, Bruce C. Daube, Jeff Peischl, Chelsea Thompson, and Pieternel Levelt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 6001–6028, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-6001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The new MUSICAv0 model enables the study of atmospheric chemistry across all relevant scales. We develop a MUSICAv0 grid for Africa. We evaluate MUSICAv0 with observations and compare it with a previously used model – WRF-Chem. Overall, the performance of MUSICAv0 is comparable to WRF-Chem. Based on model–satellite discrepancies, we find that future field campaigns in an eastern African region (30°E–45°E, 5°S–5°N) could substantially improve the predictive skill of air quality models.
Matthew Henry, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Mohit Dalvi, Alice Wells, Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Walker Lee, and Mari R. Tye
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13369–13385, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13369-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Solar climate interventions, such as injecting sulfur in the stratosphere, may be used to offset some of the adverse impacts of global warming. We use two independently developed Earth system models to assess the uncertainties around stratospheric sulfur injections. The injection locations and amounts are optimized to maintain the same pattern of surface temperature. While both models show reduced warming, the change in rainfall patterns (even without sulfur injections) is uncertain.
Yunqian Zhu, Robert W. Portmann, Douglas Kinnison, Owen Brian Toon, Luis Millán, Jun Zhang, Holger Vömel, Simone Tilmes, Charles G. Bardeen, Xinyue Wang, Stephanie Evan, William J. Randel, and Karen H. Rosenlof
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 13355–13367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-13355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption injected a large amount of water into the stratosphere. Ozone depletion was observed inside the volcanic plume. Chlorine and water vapor injected by this eruption exceeded the normal range, which made the ozone chemistry during this event occur at a higher temperature than polar ozone depletion. Unlike polar ozone chemistry where chlorine nitrate is more important, hypochlorous acid plays a large role in the in-plume chlorine balance and heterogeneous processes.
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for BG
Short summary
Short summary
For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
Seyed Vahid Mousavi, Khalil Karami, Simone Tilmes, Helene Muri, Lili Xia, and Abolfazl Rezaei
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 10677–10695, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10677-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-10677-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding atmospheric dust changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region under future climate scenarios is essential. By injecting sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) geoengineering reflects some of the incoming sunlight back to space. This study shows that the MENA region would experience lower dust concentration under both SAI and RCP8.5 scenarios compared to the current climate (CTL) by the end of the century.
Jun Wang, John C. Moore, and Liyun Zhao
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 989–1013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-989-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-989-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Apparent temperatures and PM2.5 pollution depend on humidity and wind speed in addition to surface temperature and impact human health and comfort. Apparent temperatures will reach dangerous levels more commonly in the future because of water vapor pressure rises and lower expected wind speeds, but these will also drive changes in PM2.5. Solar geoengineering can significantly reduce the frequency of extreme events relative to modest and especially
business-as-usualgreenhouse scenarios.
Felix Wrana, Ulrike Niemeier, Larry W. Thomason, Sandra Wallis, and Christian von Savigny
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9725–9743, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9725-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9725-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The stratospheric aerosol layer is a naturally occurring and permanent layer of aerosol, in this case very small droplets of mostly sulfuric acid and water, that has a cooling effect on our climate. To quantify this effect and for our general understanding of stratospheric microphysical processes, knowledge of the size of those aerosol particles is needed. Using satellite measurements and atmospheric models we show that some volcanic eruptions can lead to on average smaller aerosol sizes.
Duseong S. Jo, Simone Tilmes, Louisa K. Emmons, Siyuan Wang, and Francis Vitt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3893–3906, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3893-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3893-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new simple secondary organic aerosol (SOA) scheme has been developed for the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) based on the complex SOA scheme in CAM with detailed chemistry (CAM-chem). The CAM with the new SOA scheme shows better agreements with CAM-chem in terms of aerosol concentrations and radiative fluxes, which ensures more consistent results between different compsets in the Community Earth System Model. The new SOA scheme also has technical advantages for future developments.
Abolfazl Rezaei, Khalil Karami, Simone Tilmes, and John C. Moore
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5835–5850, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5835-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5835-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Teleconnection patterns are important characteristics of the climate system; well-known examples include the El Niño and La Niña events driven from the tropical Pacific. We examined how spatiotemporal patterns that arise in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans behave under stratospheric aerosol geoengineering and greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced warming. In general, geoengineering reverses trends; however, the changes in decadal oscillation for the AMO, NAO, and PDO imposed by GHG are not suppressed.
Wenfu Tang, Simone Tilmes, David M. Lawrence, Fang Li, Cenlin He, Louisa K. Emmons, Rebecca R. Buchholz, and Lili Xia
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5467–5486, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5467-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5467-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Globally, total wildfire burned area is projected to increase over the 21st century under scenarios without geoengineering and decrease under the two geoengineering scenarios. Geoengineering reduces fire by decreasing surface temperature and wind speed and increasing relative humidity and soil water. However, geoengineering also yields reductions in precipitation, which offset some of the fire reduction.
Jan Polcher, Anthony Schrapffer, Eliott Dupont, Lucia Rinchiuso, Xudong Zhou, Olivier Boucher, Emmanuel Mouche, Catherine Ottlé, and Jérôme Servonnat
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2583–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2583-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2583-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The proposed graphs of hydrological sub-grid elements for atmospheric models allow us to integrate the topographical elements needed in land surface models for a realistic representation of horizontal water and energy transport. The study demonstrates the numerical properties of the automatically built graphs and the simulated water flows.
Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Alan Robock, Simone Tilmes, Jim Haywood, Olivier Boucher, Mark Lawrence, Peter Irvine, Ulrike Niemeier, Lili Xia, Gabriel Chiodo, Chris Lennard, Shingo Watanabe, John C. Moore, and Helene Muri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 5149–5176, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-5149-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Geoengineering indicates methods aiming to reduce the temperature of the planet by means of reflecting back a part of the incoming radiation before it reaches the surface or allowing more of the planetary radiation to escape into space. It aims to produce modelling experiments that are easy to reproduce and compare with different climate models, in order to understand the potential impacts of these techniques. Here we assess its past successes and failures and talk about its future.
Sarah Berthet, Julien Jouanno, Roland Séférian, Marion Gehlen, and William Llovel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 399–412, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Phytoplankton absorbs the solar radiation entering the ocean surface and contributes to keeping the associated energy in surface waters. This natural effect is either not represented in the ocean component of climate models or its representation is simplified. An incomplete representation of this biophysical interaction affects the way climate models simulate ocean warming, which leads to uncertainties in projections of oceanic emissions of an important greenhouse gas (nitrous oxide).
Alice F. Wells, Andy Jones, Martin Osborne, Lilly Damany-Pearce, Daniel G. Partridge, and James M. Haywood
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3985–4007, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3985-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3985-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2019 the Raikoke volcano erupted explosively, emitting the largest injection of SO2 into the stratosphere since 2011. Observations indicated that a large amount of volcanic ash was also injected. Previous studies have identified that volcanic ash can prolong the lifetime of stratospheric aerosol optical depth, which we explore in UKESM1. Comparisons to observations suggest that including ash in model emission schemes can improve the representation of volcanic plumes in global climate models.
Alban Planchat, Lester Kwiatkowski, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Torres, James R. Christian, Momme Butenschön, Tomas Lovato, Roland Séférian, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, Tatiana Ilyina, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Jörg Schwinger, Jerry Tjiputra, John P. Dunne, and Charles Stock
Biogeosciences, 20, 1195–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1195-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Ocean alkalinity is critical to the uptake of atmospheric carbon and acidification in surface waters. We review the representation of alkalinity and the associated calcium carbonate cycle in Earth system models. While many parameterizations remain present in the latest generation of models, there is a general improvement in the simulated alkalinity distribution. This improvement is related to an increase in the export of biotic calcium carbonate, which closer resembles observations.
Khalil Karami, Rolando Garcia, Christoph Jacobi, Jadwiga H. Richter, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3799–3818, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3799-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Alongside mitigation and adaptation efforts, stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) is increasingly considered a third pillar to combat dangerous climate change. We investigate the teleconnection between the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial stratosphere and the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex under a warmer climate and an SAI scenario. We show that the Holton–Tan relationship weakens under both scenarios and discuss the physical mechanisms responsible for such changes.
Yann Quilcaille, Thomas Gasser, Philippe Ciais, and Olivier Boucher
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1129–1161, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1129-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1129-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The model OSCAR is a simple climate model, meaning its representation of the Earth system is simplified but calibrated on models of higher complexity. Here, we diagnose its latest version using a total of 99 experiments in a probabilistic framework and under observational constraints. OSCAR v3.1 shows good agreement with observations, complex Earth system models and emerging properties. Some points for improvements are identified, such as the ocean carbon cycle.
Aobo Liu, John C. Moore, and Yating Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 39–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-39-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-39-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Permafrost thaws and releases carbon (C) as the Arctic warms. Most earth system models (ESMs) have poor estimates of C stored now, so their future C losses are much lower than using the permafrost C model with climate inputs from six ESMs. Bias-corrected soil temperatures and plant productivity plus geoengineering lowering global temperatures from a no-mitigation baseline scenario to a moderate emissions level keep C in the soil worth about USD 0–70 (mean 20) trillion in climate damages by 2100.
Ilaria Quaglia, Claudia Timmreck, Ulrike Niemeier, Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Christina Brodowsky, Christoph Brühl, Sandip S. Dhomse, Henning Franke, Anton Laakso, Graham W. Mann, Eugene Rozanov, and Timofei Sukhodolov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 921–948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-921-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The last very large explosive volcanic eruption we have measurements for is the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. It is therefore often used as a benchmark for climate models' ability to reproduce these kinds of events. Here, we compare available measurements with the results from multiple experiments conducted with climate models interactively simulating the aerosol cloud formation.
Daniele Visioni, Ewa M. Bednarz, Walker R. Lee, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, and Douglas G. MacMartin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 663–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper constitutes Part 1 of a study performing a first systematic inter-model comparison of the atmospheric responses to stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections (SAIs) at various latitudes as simulated by three state-of-the-art Earth system models. We identify similarities and differences in the modeled aerosol burden, investigate the differences in the aerosol approaches between the models, and ultimately show the differences produced in surface climate, temperature and precipitation.
Ewa M. Bednarz, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, Andy Jones, James M. Haywood, Jadwiga Richter, Douglas G. MacMartin, and Peter Braesicke
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 687–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-687-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Building on Part 1 of this two-part study, we demonstrate the role of biases in climatological circulation and specific aspects of model microphysics in driving the differences in simulated sulfate distributions amongst three Earth system models. We then characterize the simulated changes in stratospheric and free-tropospheric temperatures, ozone, water vapor, and large-scale circulation, elucidating the role of the above aspects in the surface responses discussed in Part 1.
Kevin Wolf, Nicolas Bellouin, and Olivier Boucher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 287–309, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies estimate the radiative impact of contrails to be similar to or larger than that of emitted CO2; thus, contrail mitigation might be an opportunity to reduce the climate effects of aviation. A radiosonde data set is analyzed in terms of the vertical distribution of potential contrails, contrail mitigation by flight altitude changes, and linkages with the tropopause and jet stream. The effect of prospective jet engine developments and alternative fuels are estimated.
Jun Wang, John C. Moore, Liyun Zhao, Chao Yue, and Zhenhua Di
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1625–1640, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1625-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1625-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examine how geoengineering using aerosols in the atmosphere might impact urban climate in the greater Beijing region containing over 50 million people. Climate models have too coarse resolutions to resolve regional variations well, so we compare two workarounds for this – an expensive physical model and a cheaper statistical method. The statistical method generally gives a reasonable representation of climate and has limited resolution and a different seasonality from the physical model.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Johannes Quaas, Hailing Jia, Chris Smith, Anna Lea Albright, Wenche Aas, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Daniel Grosvenor, Stuart Jenkins, Zbigniew Klimont, Norman G. Loeb, Xiaoyan Ma, Vaishali Naik, Fabien Paulot, Philip Stier, Martin Wild, Gunnar Myhre, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12221–12239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Pollution particles cool climate and offset part of the global warming. However, they are washed out by rain and thus their effect responds quickly to changes in emissions. We show multiple datasets to demonstrate that aerosol emissions and their concentrations declined in many regions influenced by human emissions, as did the effects on clouds. Consequently, the cooling impact on the Earth energy budget became smaller. This change in trend implies a relative warming.
Sébastien Gardoll and Olivier Boucher
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 7051–7073, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7051-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-7051-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating natural disasters, which justifies monitoring and prediction in the context of a changing climate. In this study, we have adapted and tested a convolutional neural network (CNN) for the classification of reanalysis outputs (ERA5 and MERRA-2 labeled by HURDAT2) according to the presence or absence of TCs. We tested the impact of interpolation and of "mixing and matching" the training and test sets on the performance of the CNN.
Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Lester Kwiatkowski, Corentin Clerc, Léonard Dupont, Christian Ethé, Thomas Gorgues, Roland Séférian, and Alessandro Tagliabue
Biogeosciences, 19, 4267–4285, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4267-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of anthropogenic climate change on the biological production of phytoplankton in the ocean is a cause for concern because its evolution could affect the response of marine ecosystems to climate change. Here, we identify biological N fixation and its response to future climate change as a key process in shaping the future evolution of marine phytoplankton production. Our results show that further study of how this nitrogen fixation responds to environmental change is essential.
Haoran Kang, Liyun Zhao, Michael Wolovick, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 16, 3619–3633, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3619-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3619-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Basal thermal conditions are important to ice dynamics and sensitive to geothermal heat flux (GHF). We estimate basal thermal conditions of the Lambert–Amery Glacier system with six GHF maps. Recent GHFs inverted from aerial geomagnetic observations produce a larger warm-based area and match the observed subglacial lakes better than the other GHFs. The modelled basal melt rate is 10 to hundreds of millimetres per year in fast-flowing glaciers feeding the Amery Ice Shelf and smaller inland.
Mari R. Tye, Katherine Dagon, Maria J. Molina, Jadwiga H. Richter, Daniele Visioni, Ben Kravitz, and Simone Tilmes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1233–1257, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1233-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examined the potential effect of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on extreme temperature and precipitation. SAI may cause daytime temperatures to cool but nighttime to warm. Daytime cooling may occur in all seasons across the globe, with the largest decreases in summer. In contrast, nighttime warming may be greatest at high latitudes in winter. SAI may reduce the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall. The combined changes may exacerbate drying over parts of the global south.
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1097–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the main driver for the natural variability of global atmospheric CO2. It modulates the CO2 fluxes in the tropical Pacific with anomalous CO2 influx during El Niño and outflux during La Niña. This relationship is projected to reverse by half of Earth system models studied here under the business-as-usual scenario. This study shows models that simulate a positive bias in surface carbonate concentrations simulate a shift in the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship.
Charles D. Koven, Vivek K. Arora, Patricia Cadule, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, David M. Lawrence, Jared Lewis, Keith Lindsay, Sabine Mathesius, Malte Meinshausen, Michael Mills, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Neil C. Swart, William R. Wieder, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 885–909, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-885-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the long-term dynamics of Earth's climate and carbon cycles under a pair of contrasting scenarios to the year 2300 using six models that include both climate and carbon cycle dynamics. One scenario assumes very high emissions, while the second assumes a peak in emissions, followed by rapid declines to net negative emissions. We show that the models generally agree that warming is roughly proportional to carbon emissions but that many other aspects of the model projections differ.
Jim M. Haywood, Andy Jones, Ben T. Johnson, and William McFarlane Smith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 6135–6150, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6135-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-6135-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations are presented investigating the influence of moderately absorbing aerosol in the stratosphere to combat the impacts of climate change. A number of detrimental impacts are noted compared to sulfate aerosol, including (i) reduced cooling efficiency, (ii) increased deficits in global precipitation, (iii) delays in the recovery of the stratospheric ozone hole, and (iv) disruption of the stratospheric circulation and the wintertime storm tracks that impact European precipitation.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Irina Melnikova, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Katsumasa Tanaka, Thomas Gasser, Tomohiro Hajima, Yann Quilcaille, Hideo Shiogama, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Nicolas Vuichard, Tokuta Yokohata, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 779–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The deployment of bioenergy crops for capturing carbon from the atmosphere facilitates global warming mitigation via generating negative CO2 emissions. Here, we explored the consequences of large-scale energy crops deployment on the land carbon cycle. The land-use change for energy crops leads to carbon emissions and loss of future potential increase in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems. This impact should be taken into account by the modeling teams and accounted for in mitigation policies.
Mengdie Xie, John C. Moore, Liyun Zhao, Michael Wolovick, and Helene Muri
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4581–4597, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4581-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4581-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use data from six Earth system models to estimate Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) changes and its drivers under four different solar geoengineering methods. Solar dimming seems relatively more effective than marine cloud brightening or stratospheric aerosol injection at reversing greenhouse-gas-driven declines in AMOC. Geoengineering-induced AMOC amelioration is due to better maintenance of air–sea temperature differences and reduced loss of Arctic summer sea ice.
Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Andy Jones, James Haywood, Roland Séférian, Pierre Nabat, Olivier Boucher, Ewa Monica Bednarz, and Ulrike Niemeier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 4557–4579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4557-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the impacts of climate interventions, using stratospheric sulfate aerosol and solar dimming on stratospheric ozone, based on three Earth system models with interactive stratospheric chemistry. The climate interventions have been applied to a high emission (baseline) scenario in order to reach global surface temperatures of a medium emission scenario. We find significant increases and decreases in total column ozone, depending on regions and seasons.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Adam A. Scaife, Olivier Boucher, Matthew Henry, Ben Kravitz, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, Simone Tilmes, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2999–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations by six Earth-system models of geoengineering by introducing sulfuric acid aerosols into the tropical stratosphere are compared. A robust impact on the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation is found, exacerbating precipitation reduction over parts of southern Europe. In contrast, the models show no consistency with regard to impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, although results do indicate a risk that the oscillation could become locked into a permanent westerly phase.
Debra K. Weisenstein, Daniele Visioni, Henning Franke, Ulrike Niemeier, Sandro Vattioni, Gabriel Chiodo, Thomas Peter, and David W. Keith
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2955–2973, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2955-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2955-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores a potential method of geoengineering that could be used to slow the rate of change of climate over decadal scales. We use three climate models to explore how injections of accumulation-mode sulfuric acid aerosol change the large-scale stratospheric particle size distribution and radiative forcing response for the chosen scenarios. Radiative forcing per unit sulfur injected and relative to the change in aerosol burden is larger with particulate than with SO2 injections.
Daniele Visioni, Simone Tilmes, Charles Bardeen, Michael Mills, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, and Jadwiga H. Richter
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1739–1756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1739-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols are simulated in a simplified way in climate models: in the model analyzed here, they are represented in every grid as described by three simple logarithmic distributions, mixing all different species together. The size can evolve when new particles are formed, particles merge together to create a larger one or particles are deposited to the surface. This approximation normally works fairly well. Here we show however that when large amounts of sulfate are simulated, there are problems.
Nicholas A. Davis, Patrick Callaghan, Isla R. Simpson, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 197–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-197-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Specified dynamics schemes attempt to constrain the atmospheric circulation in a climate model to isolate the role of transport in chemical variability, evaluate model physics, and interpret field campaign observations. We show that the specified dynamics scheme in CESM2 erroneously suppresses convection and induces circulation errors that project onto errors in tracers, even using the most optimal settings. Development of a more sophisticated scheme is necessary for future progress.
Anton Laakso, Ulrike Niemeier, Daniele Visioni, Simone Tilmes, and Harri Kokkola
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 93–118, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-93-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-93-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The use of different spatio-temporal sulfur injection strategies with different magnitudes to create an artificial reflective aerosol layer to cool the climate is studied using sectional and modal aerosol schemes in a climate model. There are significant differences in the results depending on the aerosol microphysical module used. Different spatio-temporal injection strategies have a significant impact on the magnitude and zonal distribution of radiative forcing and atmospheric dynamics.
Chao Yue, Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Liyun Zhao, Michael Wolovick, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-318, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-318, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We use the ice sheet model PISM to estimate Vatnajökull mass balance under solar geoengineering. We find that Stratospheric aerosol injection at the rate of 5 Tg yr−1 reduces ice cap mass loss by 4 percentage points relative to the RCP4.5 scenario. Dynamic mass loss is a significant component of mass balance, but insensitive to climate forcing.
Elizaveta Malinina, Alexei Rozanov, Ulrike Niemeier, Sandra Wallis, Carlo Arosio, Felix Wrana, Claudia Timmreck, Christian von Savigny, and John P. Burrows
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 14871–14891, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14871-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-14871-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the paper, changes in the stratospheric aerosol loading after the 2018 Ambae eruption were analyzed using OMPS-LP observations. The eruption was also simulated with the MAECHAM5-HAM global climate model. Generally, the model and observations agree very well. We attribute the good consistency of the results to a precisely determined altitude and mass of the volcanic injection, as well as nudging of the meteorological data. The radiative forcing from the eruption was estimated to be −0.13 W m−2.
Thierno Doumbia, Claire Granier, Nellie Elguindi, Idir Bouarar, Sabine Darras, Guy Brasseur, Benjamin Gaubert, Yiming Liu, Xiaoqin Shi, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Simone Tilmes, Forrest Lacey, Adrien Deroubaix, and Tao Wang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4191–4206, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4191-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4191-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Most countries around the world have implemented control measures to combat the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in significant changes in economic and personal activities. We developed the CONFORM (COvid-19 adjustmeNt Factors fOR eMissions) dataset to account for changes in emissions during lockdowns. This dataset was created with the intention of being directly applicable to existing global and regional inventories used in chemical transport models.
Yves Balkanski, Rémy Bonnet, Olivier Boucher, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, and Jérôme Servonnat
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11423–11435, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11423-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11423-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models have persistent biases that impinge on our ability to make robust future regional predictions of precipitation. For the last 15 years, there has been little improvement in these biases. This work presents an accurate representation of dust absorption based upon observed dust mineralogical composition and size distribution. The striking result is that this more accurate representation improves tropical precipitations for climate models with too weak an African monsoon.
Yongkang Xue, Tandong Yao, Aaron A. Boone, Ismaila Diallo, Ye Liu, Xubin Zeng, William K. M. Lau, Shiori Sugimoto, Qi Tang, Xiaoduo Pan, Peter J. van Oevelen, Daniel Klocke, Myung-Seo Koo, Tomonori Sato, Zhaohui Lin, Yuhei Takaya, Constantin Ardilouze, Stefano Materia, Subodh K. Saha, Retish Senan, Tetsu Nakamura, Hailan Wang, Jing Yang, Hongliang Zhang, Mei Zhao, Xin-Zhong Liang, J. David Neelin, Frederic Vitart, Xin Li, Ping Zhao, Chunxiang Shi, Weidong Guo, Jianping Tang, Miao Yu, Yun Qian, Samuel S. P. Shen, Yang Zhang, Kun Yang, Ruby Leung, Yuan Qiu, Daniele Peano, Xin Qi, Yanling Zhan, Michael A. Brunke, Sin Chan Chou, Michael Ek, Tianyi Fan, Hong Guan, Hai Lin, Shunlin Liang, Helin Wei, Shaocheng Xie, Haoran Xu, Weiping Li, Xueli Shi, Paulo Nobre, Yan Pan, Yi Qin, Jeff Dozier, Craig R. Ferguson, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Qing Bao, Jinming Feng, Jinkyu Hong, Songyou Hong, Huilin Huang, Duoying Ji, Zhenming Ji, Shichang Kang, Yanluan Lin, Weiguang Liu, Ryan Muncaster, Patricia de Rosnay, Hiroshi G. Takahashi, Guiling Wang, Shuyu Wang, Weicai Wang, Xu Zhou, and Yuejian Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4465–4494, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4465-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The subseasonal prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts/floods has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new international initiative which, for the first time, introduces spring land surface temperature anomalies over high mountains to improve precipitation prediction through remote effects of land–atmosphere interactions. More than 40 institutions worldwide are participating in this effort. The experimental protocol and preliminary results are presented.
Daniele Visioni, Douglas G. MacMartin, Ben Kravitz, Olivier Boucher, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Michou Martine, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10039–10063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A new set of simulations is used to investigate commonalities, differences and sources of uncertainty when simulating the injection of SO2 in the stratosphere in order to mitigate the effects of climate change (solar geoengineering). The models differ in how they simulate the aerosols and how they spread around the stratosphere, resulting in differences in projected regional impacts. Overall, however, the models agree that aerosols have the potential to mitigate the warming produced by GHGs.
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Roland Séférian, Charles Amory, Alison Delhasse, Sébastien Doutreloup, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Joris Van Bever, Florent Veillon, and Peter Irvine
The Cryosphere, 15, 3013–3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-3013-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Without any reduction in our greenhouse gas emissions, the Greenland ice sheet surface mass loss can be brought in line with a medium-mitigation emissions scenario by reducing the solar downward flux at the top of the atmosphere by 1.5 %. In addition to reducing global warming, these solar geoengineering measures also dampen the well-known positive melt–albedo feedback over the ice sheet by 6 %. However, only stronger reductions in solar radiation could maintain a stable ice sheet in 2100.
Josué Bock, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Manabu Abe, Jane P. Mulcahy, Dirk J. L. Olivié, Jörg Schwinger, Parvadha Suntharalingam, Jerry Tjiputra, Marco van Hulten, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Roland Séférian
Biogeosciences, 18, 3823–3860, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3823-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we analyse surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration and flux to the atmosphere from four CMIP6 Earth system models over the historical and ssp585 simulations.
Our analysis of contemporary (1980–2009) climatologies shows that models better reproduce observations in mid to high latitudes. The models disagree on the sign of the trend of the global DMS flux from 1980 onwards. The models agree on a positive trend of DMS over polar latitudes following sea-ice retreat dynamics.
Henning Franke, Ulrike Niemeier, and Daniele Visioni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 8615–8635, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-8615-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol modification (SAM) can alter the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Our simulations with two different models show that the characteristics of the QBO response are primarily determined by the meridional structure of the aerosol-induced heating. Therefore, the QBO response to SAM depends primarily on the location of injection, while injection type and rate act to scale the specific response. Our results have important implications for evaluating adverse side effects of SAM.
Fernando Chouza, Thierry Leblanc, Mark Brewer, Patrick Wang, Sabino Piazzolla, Gabriele Pfister, Rajesh Kumar, Carl Drews, Simone Tilmes, Louisa Emmons, and Matthew Johnson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6129–6153, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6129-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6129-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The tropospheric ozone lidar at the JPL Table Mountain Facility (TMF) was used to investigate the impact of Los Angeles (LA) Basin pollution transport and stratospheric intrusions in the planetary boundary layer on the San Gabriel Mountains. The results of this study indicate a dominant role of the LA Basin pollution on days when high ozone levels were observed at TMF (March–October period).
Yuan Zhang, Olivier Boucher, Philippe Ciais, Laurent Li, and Nicolas Bellouin
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2029–2039, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2029-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2029-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated different methods to reconstruct spatiotemporal distribution of the fraction of diffuse radiation (Fdf) to qualify the aerosol impacts on GPP using the ORCHIDEE_DF land surface model. We find that climatological-averaging methods which dampen the variability of Fdf can cause significant bias in the modeled diffuse radiation impacts on GPP. Better methods to reconstruct Fdf are recommended.
James Keeble, Birgit Hassler, Antara Banerjee, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gabriel Chiodo, Sean Davis, Veronika Eyring, Paul T. Griffiths, Olaf Morgenstern, Peer Nowack, Guang Zeng, Jiankai Zhang, Greg Bodeker, Susannah Burrows, Philip Cameron-Smith, David Cugnet, Christopher Danek, Makoto Deushi, Larry W. Horowitz, Anne Kubin, Lijuan Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Sungsu Park, Øyvind Seland, Jens Stoll, Karl-Hermann Wieners, and Tongwen Wu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 5015–5061, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Andy Jones, Thibaut Lurton, Pierre Nabat, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Roland Séférian, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4231–4247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4231-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates multi-model response to idealized geoengineering (high CO2 with solar reduction) across two different generations of climate models. We find that, with the exception of a few cases, the results are unchanged between the different generations. This gives us confidence that broad conclusions about the response to idealized geoengineering are robust.
Paul T. Griffiths, Lee T. Murray, Guang Zeng, Youngsub Matthew Shin, N. Luke Abraham, Alexander T. Archibald, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Ian E. Galbally, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, James Keeble, Jane Liu, Omid Moeini, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Naga Oshima, David Tarasick, Simone Tilmes, Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, Paul J. Young, and Prodromos Zanis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 4187–4218, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the CMIP6 Historical and future simulations for tropospheric ozone, a species which is important for many aspects of atmospheric chemistry. We show that the current generation of models agrees well with observations, being particularly successful in capturing trends in surface ozone and its vertical distribution in the troposphere. We analyse the factors that control ozone and show that they evolve over the period of the CMIP6 experiments.
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Ohad Harari, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Jian Rao, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Fiona M. O'Connor, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3725–3740, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3725-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, and El Niño is the dominant mode of variability in the ocean–atmosphere system. The connection between El Niño and water vapor above ~ 17 km is unclear, with single-model studies reaching a range of conclusions. This study examines this connection in 12 different models. While there are substantial differences among the models, all models appear to capture the fundamental physical processes correctly.
Ulrike Niemeier, Felix Riede, and Claudia Timmreck
Clim. Past, 17, 633–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-633-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-633-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The 13 kyr BP Laacher See eruption impacted local environments, human communities and climate. We have simulated the evolution of its fine ash and sulfur cloud such that it reflects the empirically known ash distribution. In our models, the heating of the ash causes a mesocyclone which changes the dispersion of the cloud itself, resulting in enhanced transport to low latitudes. This may partially explain why no Laacher See ash has yet been found in Greenlandic ice cores.
Duseong S. Jo, Alma Hodzic, Louisa K. Emmons, Simone Tilmes, Rebecca H. Schwantes, Michael J. Mills, Pedro Campuzano-Jost, Weiwei Hu, Rahul A. Zaveri, Richard C. Easter, Balwinder Singh, Zheng Lu, Christiane Schulz, Johannes Schneider, John E. Shilling, Armin Wisthaler, and Jose L. Jimenez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3395–3425, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3395-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3395-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is a major component of submicron particulate matter, but there are a lot of uncertainties in the future prediction of SOA. We used CESM 2.1 to investigate future IEPOX SOA concentration changes. The explicit chemistry predicted substantial changes in IEPOX SOA depending on the future scenario, but the parameterization predicted weak changes due to simplified chemistry, which shows the importance of correct physicochemical dependencies in future SOA prediction.
Margot Clyne, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Michael J. Mills, Myriam Khodri, William Ball, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Nicolas Lebas, Graham Mann, Lauren Marshall, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Anja Schmidt, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Fiona Tummon, Davide Zanchettin, Yunqian Zhu, and Owen B. Toon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 3317–3343, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study finds how and why five state-of-the-art global climate models with interactive stratospheric aerosols differ when simulating the aftermath of large volcanic injections as part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP). We identify and explain the consequences of significant disparities in the underlying physics and chemistry currently in some of the models, which are problems likely not unique to the models participating in this study.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Sabine Robrecht, Bärbel Vogel, Simone Tilmes, and Rolf Müller
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2427–2455, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2427-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Column ozone protects life on Earth from radiation damage. Stratospheric chlorine compounds cause immense ozone loss in polar winter. Whether similar loss processes can occur in the lower stratosphere above North America today or in future is a matter of debate. We show that these ozone loss processes are very unlikely today or in future independently of whether sulfate geoengineering is applied and that less than 0.1 % of column ozone would be destroyed by this process in any future scenario.
Rupert Gladstone, Benjamin Galton-Fenzi, David Gwyther, Qin Zhou, Tore Hattermann, Chen Zhao, Lenneke Jong, Yuwei Xia, Xiaoran Guo, Konstantinos Petrakopoulos, Thomas Zwinger, Daniel Shapero, and John Moore
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 889–905, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-889-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-889-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet, and hence its contribution to sea level rise, is highly sensitive to melting of its floating ice shelves. This melt is caused by warm ocean currents coming into contact with the ice. Computer models used for future ice sheet projections are not able to realistically evolve these melt rates. We describe a new coupling framework to enable ice sheet and ocean computer models to interact, allowing projection of the evolution of melt and its impact on sea level.
Andy Jones, Jim M. Haywood, Anthony C. Jones, Simone Tilmes, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1287–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1287-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Two different methods of simulating a geoengineering scenario are compared using data from two different Earth system models. One method is very idealised while the other includes details of a plausible mechanism. The results from both models agree that the idealised approach does not capture an impact found when detailed modelling is included, namely that geoengineering induces a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation which leads to warmer, wetter winters in northern Europe.
Marc von Hobe, Felix Ploeger, Paul Konopka, Corinna Kloss, Alexey Ulanowski, Vladimir Yushkov, Fabrizio Ravegnani, C. Michael Volk, Laura L. Pan, Shawn B. Honomichl, Simone Tilmes, Douglas E. Kinnison, Rolando R. Garcia, and Jonathon S. Wright
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1267–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1267-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1267-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is known to foster transport of polluted tropospheric air into the stratosphere. To test and amend our picture of ASM vertical transport, we analyse distributions of airborne trace gas observations up to 20 km altitude near the main ASM vertical conduit south of the Himalayas. We also show that a new high-resolution version of the global chemistry climate model WACCM is able to reproduce the observations well.
Gillian Thornhill, William Collins, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Alex Archibald, Susanne Bauer, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Stephanie Fiedler, Gerd Folberth, Ada Gjermundsen, Larry Horowitz, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Fabien Paulot, Michael Schulz, Catherine E. Scott, Roland Séférian, Chris Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and James Weber
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 1105–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1105-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We find that increased temperatures affect aerosols and reactive gases by changing natural emissions and their rates of removal from the atmosphere. Changing the composition of these species in the atmosphere affects the radiative budget of the climate system and therefore amplifies or dampens the climate response of climate models of the Earth system. This study found that the largest effect is a dampening of climate change as warmer temperatures increase the emissions of cooling aerosols.
Gillian D. Thornhill, William J. Collins, Ryan J. Kramer, Dirk Olivié, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Fiona M. O'Connor, Nathan Luke Abraham, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa K. Emmons, Piers M. Forster, Larry W. Horowitz, Ben Johnson, James Keeble, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Martine Michou, Michael J. Mills, Jane P. Mulcahy, Gunnar Myhre, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Christopher J. Smith, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Tongwen Wu, Guang Zeng, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 853–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-853-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is a study of how different constituents in the atmosphere, such as aerosols and gases like methane and ozone, affect the energy balance in the atmosphere. Different climate models were run using the same inputs to allow an easy comparison of the results and to understand where the models differ. We found the effect of aerosols is to reduce warming in the atmosphere, but this effect varies between models. Reactions between gases are also important in affecting climate.
Jane P. Mulcahy, Colin Johnson, Colin G. Jones, Adam C. Povey, Catherine E. Scott, Alistair Sellar, Steven T. Turnock, Matthew T. Woodhouse, Nathan Luke Abraham, Martin B. Andrews, Nicolas Bellouin, Jo Browse, Ken S. Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Gerd A. Folberth, Matthew Glover, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Catherine Hardacre, Richard Hill, Ben Johnson, Andy Jones, Zak Kipling, Graham Mann, James Mollard, Fiona M. O'Connor, Julien Palmiéri, Carly Reddington, Steven T. Rumbold, Mark Richardson, Nick A. J. Schutgens, Philip Stier, Marc Stringer, Yongming Tang, Jeremy Walton, Stephanie Woodward, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 6383–6423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols are an important component of the Earth system. Here, we comprehensively document and evaluate the aerosol schemes as implemented in the physical and Earth system models, HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1. This study provides a useful characterisation of the aerosol climatology in both models, facilitating the understanding of the numerous aerosol–climate interaction studies that will be conducted for CMIP6 and beyond.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Benjamin Gaubert, Louisa K. Emmons, Kevin Raeder, Simone Tilmes, Kazuyuki Miyazaki, Avelino F. Arellano Jr., Nellie Elguindi, Claire Granier, Wenfu Tang, Jérôme Barré, Helen M. Worden, Rebecca R. Buchholz, David P. Edwards, Philipp Franke, Jeffrey L. Anderson, Marielle Saunois, Jason Schroeder, Jung-Hun Woo, Isobel J. Simpson, Donald R. Blake, Simone Meinardi, Paul O. Wennberg, John Crounse, Alex Teng, Michelle Kim, Russell R. Dickerson, Hao He, Xinrong Ren, Sally E. Pusede, and Glenn S. Diskin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14617–14647, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14617-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14617-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates carbon monoxide pollution in East Asia during spring using a numerical model, satellite remote sensing, and aircraft measurements. We found an underestimation of emission sources. Correcting the emission bias can improve air quality forecasting of carbon monoxide and other species including ozone. Results also suggest that controlling VOC and CO emissions, in addition to widespread NOx controls, can improve ozone pollution over East Asia.
Steven T. Turnock, Robert J. Allen, Martin Andrews, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa Emmons, Peter Good, Larry Horowitz, Jasmin G. John, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, David Neubauer, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Alistair Sellar, Sungbo Shim, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14547–14579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A first assessment is made of the historical and future changes in air pollutants from models participating in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Substantial benefits to future air quality can be achieved in future scenarios that implement measures to mitigate climate and involve reductions in air pollutant emissions, particularly methane. However, important differences are shown between models in the future regional projection of air pollutants under the same scenario.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
Camilla W. Stjern, Bjørn H. Samset, Olivier Boucher, Trond Iversen, Jean-François Lamarque, Gunnar Myhre, Drew Shindell, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13467–13480, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13467-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13467-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The span between the warmest and coldest temperatures over a day is a climate parameter that influences both agriculture and human health. Using data from 10 models, we show how individual climate drivers such as greenhouse gases and aerosols produce distinctly different responses in this parameter in high-emission regions. Given the high uncertainty in future aerosol emissions, this improved understanding of the temperature responses may ultimately help these regions prepare for future changes.
Augustin Mortier, Jonas Gliß, Michael Schulz, Wenche Aas, Elisabeth Andrews, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Paul Ginoux, Jenny Hand, Brent Holben, Hua Zhang, Zak Kipling, Alf Kirkevåg, Paolo Laj, Thibault Lurton, Gunnar Myhre, David Neubauer, Dirk Olivié, Knut von Salzen, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13355–13378, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13355-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present a multiparameter analysis of the aerosol trends over the last 2 decades in the different regions of the world. In most of the regions, ground-based observations show a decrease in aerosol content in both the total atmospheric column and at the surface. The use of climate models, assessed against these observations, reveals however an increase in the total aerosol load, which is not seen with the sole use of observation due to partial coverage in space and time.
Yuan Zhang, Ana Bastos, Fabienne Maignan, Daniel Goll, Olivier Boucher, Laurent Li, Alessandro Cescatti, Nicolas Vuichard, Xiuzhi Chen, Christof Ammann, M. Altaf Arain, T. Andrew Black, Bogdan Chojnicki, Tomomichi Kato, Ivan Mammarella, Leonardo Montagnani, Olivier Roupsard, Maria J. Sanz, Lukas Siebicke, Marek Urbaniak, Francesco Primo Vaccari, Georg Wohlfahrt, Will Woodgate, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5401–5423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We improved the ORCHIDEE LSM by distinguishing diffuse and direct light in canopy and evaluated the new model with observations from 159 sites. Compared with the old model, the new model has better sunny GPP and reproduced the diffuse light fertilization effect observed at flux sites. Our simulations also indicate different mechanisms causing the observed GPP enhancement under cloudy conditions at different times. The new model has the potential to study large-scale impacts of aerosol changes.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 13011–13022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13011-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-13011-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Decadal trends and variations in OH are critical for understanding atmospheric CH4 evolution. We quantify the impacts of OH trends and variations on the CH4 budget by conducting CH4 inversions on a decadal scale with an ensemble of OH fields. We find the negative OH anomalies due to enhanced fires can reduce the optimized CH4 emissions by up to 10 Tg yr−1 during El Niño years and the positive OH trend from 1986 to 2010 results in a ∼ 23 Tg yr−1 additional increase in optimized CH4 emissions.
David S. Stevenson, Alcide Zhao, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Simone Tilmes, Guang Zeng, Lee T. Murray, William J. Collins, Paul T. Griffiths, Sungbo Shim, Larry W. Horowitz, Lori T. Sentman, and Louisa Emmons
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 12905–12920, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-12905-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present historical trends in atmospheric oxidizing capacity (OC) since 1850 from the latest generation of global climate models and compare these with estimates from measurements. OC controls levels of many key reactive gases, including methane (CH4). We find small model trends up to 1980, then increases of about 9 % up to 2014, disagreeing with (uncertain) measurement-based trends. Major drivers of OC trends are emissions of CH4, NOx, and CO; these will be important for future CH4 trends.
Wenfu Tang, Benjamin Gaubert, Louisa Emmons, Yonghoon Choi, Joshua P. DiGangi, Glenn S. Diskin, Xiaomei Xu, Cenlin He, Helen Worden, Simone Tilmes, Rebecca Buchholz, Hannah S. Halliday, and Avelino F. Arellano
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-864, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-864, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
A specific demonstration of the potential use of correlative information from carbon monoxide to refine estimates of regional carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion.
Matt Amos, Paul J. Young, J. Scott Hosking, Jean-François Lamarque, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, David A. Plummer, David Saint-Martin, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, and Yousuke Yamashita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9961–9977, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9961-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present an updated projection of Antarctic ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models. To do so, we employ a method, more advanced and skilful than the current multi-model mean standard, which is applicable to other ensemble analyses. It calculates the performance and similarity of the models, which we then use to weight the model. Calculating model similarity allows us to account for models which are constructed from similar components.
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
Christopher J. Smith, Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Seiji Yukimoto, Jason Cole, David Paynter, Hideo Shiogama, Fiona M. O'Connor, Eddy Robertson, Andy Wiltshire, Timothy Andrews, Cécile Hannay, Ron Miller, Larissa Nazarenko, Alf Kirkevåg, Dirk Olivié, Stephanie Fiedler, Anna Lewinschal, Chloe Mackallah, Martin Dix, Robert Pincus, and Piers M. Forster
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 9591–9618, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The spread in effective radiative forcing for both CO2 and aerosols is narrower in the latest CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) generation than in CMIP5. For the case of CO2 it is likely that model radiation parameterisations have improved. Tropospheric and stratospheric radiative adjustments to the forcing behave differently for different forcing agents, and there is still significant diversity in how clouds respond to forcings, particularly for total anthropogenic forcing.
Yangyang Xu, Lei Lin, Simone Tilmes, Katherine Dagon, Lili Xia, Chenrui Diao, Wei Cheng, Zhili Wang, Isla Simpson, and Lorna Burnell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 673–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-673-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Two geoengineering schemes to mitigate global warming, (a) capturing atmospheric CO2 and (b) injecting stratospheric sulfur gas, are compared. Based on two sets of large-ensemble model experiments, we show that sulfur injection will effectively mitigate projected terrestrial drying over the Americas, and the mitigation benefit will emerge more quickly than with carbon capture. Innovative means of sulfur injection should continue to be explored as one potential low-cost climate solution.
Ulrike Niemeier, Jadwiga H. Richter, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8975–8987, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8975-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8975-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Artificial injections of SO2 into the tropical stratosphere show an impact on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Different numerical models show only qualitatively but not quantitatively consistent impacts. We show for two models that the response of the QBO is similar when a similar stratospheric heating rate is induced by SO2 injections of different amounts. The reason is very different vertical advection in the two models resulting in different aerosol burden and heating of the aerosols.
Prodromos Zanis, Dimitris Akritidis, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias, Robert J. Allen, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Jason Cole, Ben Johnson, Makoto Deushi, Martine Michou, Jane Mulcahy, Pierre Nabat, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Adriana Sima, Michael Schulz, Toshihiko Takemura, and Konstantinos Tsigaridis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 8381–8404, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8381-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-8381-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations: a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014.
Nicolas Bellouin, Will Davies, Keith P. Shine, Johannes Quaas, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Lindsay Lee, Leighton Regayre, Guy Brasseur, Natalia Sudarchikova, Idir Bouarar, Olivier Boucher, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1649–1677, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1649-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1649-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Quantifying the imbalance in the Earth's energy budget caused by human activities is important to understand and predict climate changes. This study presents new estimates of the imbalance caused by changes in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, and particles of pollution. Over the period 2003–2017, the overall imbalance has been positive, indicating that the climate system has gained energy and will warm further.
Simone Tilmes, Douglas G. MacMartin, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Leo van Kampenhout, Laura Muntjewerf, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Kristen M. Krumhardt, Michael J. Mills, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 579–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-579-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces new geoengineering model experiments as part of a larger model intercomparison effort, using reflective particles to block some of the incoming solar radiation to reach surface temperature targets. Outcomes of these applications are contrasted based on a high greenhouse gas emission pathway and a pathway with strong mitigation and negative emissions after 2040. We compare quantities that matter for societal and ecosystem impacts between the different scenarios.
Pierre Sepulchre, Arnaud Caubel, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Pascale Braconnot, Patrick Brockmann, Anne Cozic, Yannick Donnadieu, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Victor Estella-Perez, Christian Ethé, Frédéric Fluteau, Marie-Alice Foujols, Guillaume Gastineau, Josefine Ghattas, Didier Hauglustaine, Frédéric Hourdin, Masa Kageyama, Myriam Khodri, Olivier Marti, Yann Meurdesoif, Juliette Mignot, Anta-Clarisse Sarr, Jérôme Servonnat, Didier Swingedouw, Sophie Szopa, and Delphine Tardif
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3011–3053, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3011-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3011-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper describes IPSL-CM5A2, an Earth system model that can be integrated for long (several thousands of years) climate simulations. We describe the technical aspects, assess the model computing performance and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the model, by comparing pre-industrial and historical runs to the previous-generation model simulations and to observations. We also present a Cretaceous simulation as a case study to show how the model simulates deep-time paleoclimates.
Lester Kwiatkowski, Olivier Torres, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Aumont, Matthew Chamberlain, James R. Christian, John P. Dunne, Marion Gehlen, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Andrew Lenton, Hongmei Li, Nicole S. Lovenduski, James C. Orr, Julien Palmieri, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Charles A. Stock, Alessandro Tagliabue, Yohei Takano, Jerry Tjiputra, Katsuya Toyama, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Akitomo Yamamoto, Andrew Yool, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 3439–3470, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Vincenzo Rizi, Marco Iarlori, Irene Cionni, Ilaria Quaglia, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martin Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando Garcia, Patrick Joeckel, Douglas Kinnison, Jean-François Lamarque, Marion Marchand, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Tatsuya Nagashima, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, David Plummer, Eugene Rozanov, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, John Scinocca, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2020-525, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we analyse the trend in ozone profiles taken at L'Aquila (Italy, 42.4° N) for seventeen years, between 2000 and 2016 and compare them against already available measured ozone trends. We try to understand and explain the observed trends at various heights in light of the simulations from seventeen different model, highlighting the contribution of changes in circulation and chemical ozone loss during this time period.
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Hans Brenna, Steffen Kutterolf, Michael J. Mills, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6521–6539, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6521-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6521-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Los Chocoyos supereruption (84 000 years ago) in Guatemala was one of the largest volcanic events of the last 100 000 years. This eruption released enormous amounts of sulfur, which cooled the climate, as well as chlorine and bromine, which destroyed the ozone in the stratosphere. We have simulated this eruption by using an advanced chemistry–climate model. We found a collapse in the ozone layer lasting more than 10 years, increased surface–UV radiation, and a 30-year climate-cooling period.
Alma Hodzic, Pedro Campuzano-Jost, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Peter R. Colarco, Douglas A. Day, Karl D. Froyd, Bernd Heinold, Duseong S. Jo, Joseph M. Katich, John K. Kodros, Benjamin A. Nault, Jeffrey R. Pierce, Eric Ray, Jacob Schacht, Gregory P. Schill, Jason C. Schroder, Joshua P. Schwarz, Donna T. Sueper, Ina Tegen, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Pengfei Yu, and Jose L. Jimenez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 4607–4635, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4607-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-4607-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Organic aerosol (OA) is a key source of uncertainty in aerosol climate effects. We present the first pole-to-pole OA characterization during the NASA Atmospheric Tomography aircraft mission. OA has a strong seasonal and zonal variability, with the highest levels in summer and over fire-influenced regions and the lowest ones in the southern high latitudes. We show that global models predict the OA distribution well but not the relative contribution of OA emissions vs. chemical production.
Christian G. Andresen, David M. Lawrence, Cathy J. Wilson, A. David McGuire, Charles Koven, Kevin Schaefer, Elchin Jafarov, Shushi Peng, Xiaodong Chen, Isabelle Gouttevin, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Duoying Ji, Guangsheng Chen, Daniel Hayes, and Wenxin Zhang
The Cryosphere, 14, 445–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Widely-used land models project near-surface drying of the terrestrial Arctic despite increases in the net water balance driven by climate change. Drying was generally associated with increases of active-layer depth and permafrost thaw in a warming climate. However, models lack important mechanisms such as thermokarst and soil subsidence that will change the hydrological regime and add to the large uncertainty in the future Arctic hydrological state and the associated permafrost carbon feedback.
Julie M. Nicely, Bryan N. Duncan, Thomas F. Hanisco, Glenn M. Wolfe, Ross J. Salawitch, Makoto Deushi, Amund S. Haslerud, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas E. Kinnison, Andrew Klekociuk, Michael E. Manyin, Virginie Marécal, Olaf Morgenstern, Lee T. Murray, Gunnar Myhre, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, Andrea Pozzer, Ilaria Quaglia, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Susan Strahan, Simone Tilmes, Holger Tost, Daniel M. Westervelt, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1341–1361, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1341-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Differences in methane lifetime among global models are large and poorly understood. We use a neural network method and simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative to quantify the factors influencing methane lifetime spread among models and variations over time. UV photolysis, tropospheric ozone, and nitrogen oxides drive large model differences, while the same factors plus specific humidity contribute to a decreasing trend in methane lifetime between 1980 and 2015.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Xiaoran Guo, Liyun Zhao, Rupert M. Gladstone, Sainan Sun, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 13, 3139–3153, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3139-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-3139-2019, 2019
Elizabeth Asher, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, Britton B. Stephens, Doug Kinnison, Eric J. Morgan, Ralph F. Keeling, Elliot L. Atlas, Sue M. Schauffler, Simone Tilmes, Eric A. Kort, Martin S. Hoecker-Martínez, Matt C. Long, Jean-François Lamarque, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Kathryn McKain, Colm Sweeney, Alan J. Hills, and Eric C. Apel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14071–14090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14071-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14071-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Halogenated organic trace gases, which are a source of reactive halogens to the atmosphere, exert a disproportionately large influence on atmospheric chemistry and climate. This paper reports novel aircraft observations of halogenated compounds over the Southern Ocean in summer and evaluates hypothesized regional sources and emissions of these trace gases through their relationships to additional aircraft observations.
Yuanhong Zhao, Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Xin Lin, Antoine Berchet, Michaela I. Hegglin, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Sophie Szopa, Ann R. Stavert, Nathan Luke Abraham, Alex T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Béatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Ole Kirner, Virginie Marécal, Fiona M. O'Connor, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Sarah Strode, Simone Tilmes, Edward J. Dlugokencky, and Bo Zheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13701–13723, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13701-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The role of hydroxyl radical changes in methane trends is debated, hindering our understanding of the methane cycle. This study quantifies how uncertainties in the hydroxyl radical may influence methane abundance in the atmosphere based on the inter-model comparison of hydroxyl radical fields and model simulations of CH4 abundance with different hydroxyl radical scenarios during 2000–2016. We show that hydroxyl radical changes could contribute up to 54 % of model-simulated methane biases.
Samuel Rémy, Zak Kipling, Johannes Flemming, Olivier Boucher, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Alessio Bozzo, Melanie Ades, Vincent Huijnen, Angela Benedetti, Richard Engelen, Vincent-Henri Peuch, and Jean-Jacques Morcrette
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4627–4659, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4627-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4627-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This article describes the IFS-AER aerosol module used operationally in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) cycle 45R1, operated by the ECMWF in the framework of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Services (CAMS). We describe the different parameterizations for aerosol sources, sinks, and how the aerosols are integrated in the larger atmospheric composition forecasting system. The skill of PM and AOD simulations against observations is improved compared to the older cycle 40R2.
Wenxiu Sun, Peter Hess, Gang Chen, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12917–12933, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12917-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12917-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Using both observations and a chemistry climate–model we establish that in most locations changes in the waviness of the 500 hPa flow field, as measured by the local anticyclonic wave activity (AWA), explain a significant fraction of the interannual variability in surface ozone over the United States. In addition, we find that the change in AWA in a future climate (circa 2100) is predicted to cause a change in surface ozone ranging between –6 ppb and 6 ppb.
Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Bjørn H. Samset, Kari Alterskjær, Timothy Andrews, Olivier Boucher, Gregory Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Piers M. Forster, Matthew Kasoar, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas B. Richardson, Dilshad Shawki, Drew Shindell, Keith P. Shine, Philip Stier, Toshihiko Takemura, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Duncan Watson-Parris
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12887–12899, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Different greenhouse gases (e.g. CO2) and aerosols (e.g. black carbon) impact the Earth’s water cycle differently. Here we investigate how various gases and particles impact atmospheric water vapour and its lifetime, i.e., the average number of days that water vapour stays in the atmosphere after evaporation and before precipitation. We find that this lifetime could increase substantially by the end of this century, indicating that important changes in precipitation patterns are excepted.
Chris D. Jones, Thomas L. Frölicher, Charles Koven, Andrew H. MacDougall, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Joeri Rogelj, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Nathan P. Gillett, Tatiana Ilyina, Malte Meinshausen, Nadine Mengis, Roland Séférian, Michael Eby, and Friedrich A. Burger
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4375–4385, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Global warming is simply related to the total emission of CO2 allowing us to define a carbon budget. However, information on the Zero Emissions Commitment is a key missing link to assess remaining carbon budgets to achieve the climate targets of the Paris Agreement. It was therefore decided that a small targeted MIP activity to fill this knowledge gap would be extremely valuable. This article formalises the experimental design alongside the other CMIP6 documentation papers.
Ulrike Niemeier, Claudia Timmreck, and Kirstin Krüger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10379–10390, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10379-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In 1963 Mt. Agung, Indonesia, showed unrest for several months. During this period,
two medium-sized eruptions injected SO2 into the stratosphere. Recent volcanic emission datasets include only one large eruption phase. Therefore, we compared model experiments, with (a) one larger eruption and (b) two eruptions as observed. The evolution of the volcanic cloud differs significantly between the two experiments. Both climatic eruptions should be taken into account.
Ohad Harari, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Sean Davis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 9253–9268, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9253-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9253-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone depletion in the Antarctic has been shown to influence surface conditions, but the effects of ozone depletion in the Arctic on surface climate are unclear. We show that Arctic ozone does influence surface climate in both polar regions and tropical regions, though the proximate cause of these surface impacts is not yet clear.
David Walters, Anthony J. Baran, Ian Boutle, Malcolm Brooks, Paul Earnshaw, John Edwards, Kalli Furtado, Peter Hill, Adrian Lock, James Manners, Cyril Morcrette, Jane Mulcahy, Claudio Sanchez, Chris Smith, Rachel Stratton, Warren Tennant, Lorenzo Tomassini, Kwinten Van Weverberg, Simon Vosper, Martin Willett, Jo Browse, Andrew Bushell, Kenneth Carslaw, Mohit Dalvi, Richard Essery, Nicola Gedney, Steven Hardiman, Ben Johnson, Colin Johnson, Andy Jones, Colin Jones, Graham Mann, Sean Milton, Heather Rumbold, Alistair Sellar, Masashi Ujiie, Michael Whitall, Keith Williams, and Mohamed Zerroukat
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1909–1963, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Global Atmosphere (GA) configurations of the Unified Model (UM) and Global Land (GL) configurations of JULES are developed for use in any global atmospheric modelling application. We describe a recent iteration of these configurations, GA7/GL7, which includes new aerosol and snow schemes and addresses the four critical errors identified in GA6. GA7/GL7 will underpin the UK's contributions to CMIP6, and hence their documentation is important.
Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Clara Orbe, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, David A. Plummer, Patrick Jöckel, Susan E. Strahan, Kane A. Stone, and Robyn Schofield
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 5511–5528, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5511-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5511-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the performance of a suite of models in simulating the large-scale transport from the northern midlatitudes to the Arctic using a CO-like idealized tracer. We find a large multi-model spread of the Arctic concentration of this CO-like tracer that is well correlated with the differences in the location of the midlatitude jet as well as the northern Hadley Cell edge. Our results suggest the Hadley Cell is key and zonal-mean transport by surface meridional flow needs better constraint.
Sauvik Santra, Shubha Verma, Koji Fujita, Indrajit Chakraborty, Olivier Boucher, Toshihiko Takemura, John F. Burkhart, Felix Matt, and Mukesh Sharma
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2441–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The present study provided information on specific glaciers over the Hindu Kush Himalayan region identified as being vulnerable to BC-induced impacts (affected by high BC-induced snow albedo reduction in addition to being sensitive to BC-induced impacts), thus impacting the downstream hydrology. The source-specific contribution to atmospheric BC aerosols by emission sources led to identifying the potential emission source, which was distinctive over south and north to 30° N.
Ludivine Conte, Sophie Szopa, Roland Séférian, and Laurent Bopp
Biogeosciences, 16, 881–902, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-881-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-881-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean is a source of atmospheric carbon monoxide, a key component for the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere. We use a global ocean biogeochemistry model to dynamically assess the oceanic CO budget and its emission to the atmosphere at the global scale. The total emissions of CO to the atmosphere are 4.0 Tg C yr−1. The oceanic CO emission maps produced are relevant for use by atmospheric chemical models, especially to study the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere above the remote ocean.
Jeronimo Escribano, Alessio Bozzo, Philippe Dubuisson, Johannes Flemming, Robin J. Hogan, Laurent C.-Labonnote, and Olivier Boucher
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 805–827, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-805-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-805-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate shortwave radiance computations are becoming increasingly important for some applications in atmospheric composition. In this work we propose a benchmark protocol and dataset to asses the accuracy and computing runtime of radiance calculations of radiative transfer models. It is applied to four models, showing the potential of this benchmark to evaluate the model performance under a variety of atmospheric conditions, viewing geometries, aerosol loading, and optical properties.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2018 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Rupert M. Gladstone, Yuwei Xia, and John Moore
The Cryosphere, 12, 3605–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3605-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3605-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Computer models for the simulation of marine ice sheets (ice sheets resting on bedrock below sea level) historically show poor numerical convergence for grounding line (the boundary between grounded and floating parts of the ice sheet) movement. We have further characterised the nature of the numerical problems leading to poor convergence and highlighted implications for the design of computer experiments that test grounding line movement.
Laura E. Revell, Andrea Stenke, Fiona Tummon, Aryeh Feinberg, Eugene Rozanov, Thomas Peter, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Douglas Kinnison, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Robyn Schofield, Kane Stone, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16155–16172, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Global models such as those participating in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) consistently simulate biases in tropospheric ozone compared with observations. We performed an advanced statistical analysis with one of the CCMI models to understand the cause of the bias. We found that emissions of ozone precursor gases are the dominant driver of the bias, implying either that the emissions are too large, or that the way in which the model handles emissions needs to be improved.
Liren Wei, Duoying Ji, Chiyuan Miao, Helene Muri, and John C. Moore
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16033–16050, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16033-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed streamflow and flood frequency under the stratospheric aerosol geoengineering scenario simulated by climate models. Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering appears to reduce flood risk in most regions, but the overall effects are largely determined by the large-scale geographic pattern. Over the Amazon, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering ameliorates the drying trend here under a future warming climate.
Xinyi Dong, Joshua S. Fu, Qingzhao Zhu, Jian Sun, Jiani Tan, Terry Keating, Takashi Sekiya, Kengo Sudo, Louisa Emmons, Simone Tilmes, Jan Eiof Jonson, Michael Schulz, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Yanko Davila, Daven Henze, Toshihiko Takemura, Anna Maria Katarina Benedictow, and Kan Huang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 15581–15600, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15581-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15581-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We have applied the HTAP phase II multi-model data to investigate the long-range transport impacts on surface concentration and column density of PM from Europe and Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine to eastern Asia, with a special focus on the long-range transport contribution during haze episodes in China. We found that long-range transport plays a more important role in elevating the background concentration of surface PM during the haze days.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Glauco di Genova, Simone Tilmes, and Irene Cionni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 14867–14887, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14867-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14867-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Many side effects of sulfate geoengineering have to be analyzed before the world can even consider deploying this method of solar radiation management. In particular, we show that ice clouds in the upper troposphere are modified by a sulfate injection, producing a change that (by allowing for more planetary radiation to escape to space) would produce a further cooling. This might be important when considering the necessary amount of sulfate that needs to be injected to achieve a certain target.
Benjamin Brown-Steiner, Noelle E. Selin, Ronald Prinn, Simone Tilmes, Louisa Emmons, Jean-François Lamarque, and Philip Cameron-Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4155–4174, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4155-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4155-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We conduct three simulations of atmospheric chemistry using chemical mechanisms of different levels of complexity and compare their results to observations. We explore situations in which the simplified mechanisms match the output of the most complex mechanism, as well as when they diverge. We investigate how concurrent utilization of chemical mechanisms of different complexities can further our atmospheric-chemistry understanding at various scales and give some strategies for future research.
Michael J. Wolovick and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 12, 2955–2967, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2955-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2955-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we explore the possibility of using locally targeted geoengineering to slow the rate of an ice sheet collapse. We find that an intervention as big as existing large civil engineering projects could have a 30 % probability of stopping an ice sheet collapse, while larger interventions have better odds of success. With more research to improve upon the simple designs we considered, it may be possible to perfect a design that was both achievable and had good odds of success.
Ben Kravitz, Philip J. Rasch, Hailong Wang, Alan Robock, Corey Gabriel, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Jim Haywood, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Andrew Lenton, John C. Moore, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Steven Phipps, Hauke Schmidt, Shingo Watanabe, Shuting Yang, and Jin-Ho Yoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 13097–13113, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-13097-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Marine cloud brightening has been proposed as a means of geoengineering/climate intervention, or deliberately altering the climate system to offset anthropogenic climate change. In idealized simulations that highlight contrasts between land and ocean, we find that the globe warms, including the ocean due to transport of heat from land. This study reinforces that no net energy input into the Earth system does not mean that temperature will necessarily remain unchanged.
Jiani Tan, Joshua S. Fu, Frank Dentener, Jian Sun, Louisa Emmons, Simone Tilmes, Johannes Flemming, Toshihiko Takemura, Huisheng Bian, Qingzhao Zhu, Cheng-En Yang, and Terry Keating
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12223–12240, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12223-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12223-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Have contributions of hemispheric air pollution to deposition at global scale been overlooked in the past years? How do we assess the critical load for the acid deposition when we look for the demand of forest and crop? This study highlights the significant impact of hemispheric transport on deposition in coastal regions, open ocean and low-emission regions. Further research is proposed for improving ecosystem and human health in these regions, with regards to the enhanced hemispheric transport.
Pakawat Phalitnonkiat, Peter G. M. Hess, Mircea D. Grigoriu, Gennady Samorodnitsky, Wenxiu Sun, Ellie Beaudry, Simone Tilmes, Makato Deushi, Beatrice Josse, David Plummer, and Kengo Sudo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11927–11948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11927-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11927-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The co-occurrence of heat waves and pollution events and the resulting high mortality rates emphasize the importance of the co-occurrence of pollution and temperature extremes. We analyze ozone and temperature extremes and their joint occurrence over the United States during the summer months (JJA) in measurement data and in model simulations of the present and future climates.
Tao Li, Chao Ban, Xin Fang, Jing Li, Zhaopeng Wu, Wuhu Feng, John M. C. Plane, Jiangang Xiong, Daniel R. Marsh, Michael J. Mills, and Xiankang Dou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11683–11695, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11683-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11683-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A total of 154 nights of observations by the USTC Na temperature and wind lidar (32° N, 117° E) suggest significant seasonal variability in the mesopause. Chemistry plays an important role in Na atom formation. More than half of the observed gravity wave (GW) momentum flux (MF), whose divergence determines the GW forcing, is induced by short-period (10 min–2 h) waves. The anticorrelation between MF and zonal wind (U) suggests strong filtering of short-period GWs by semiannual oscillation U.
Peter J. Irvine, David W. Keith, and John Moore
The Cryosphere, 12, 2501–2513, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2501-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2501-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering, a form of solar geoengineering, is a proposal to add a reflective layer of aerosol to the upper atmosphere. This would reduce sea level rise by slowing the melting of ice on land and the thermal expansion of the oceans. However, there is considerable uncertainty about its potential efficacy. This article highlights key uncertainties in the sea level response to solar geoengineering and recommends approaches to address these in future work.
Angela Benedetti, Jeffrey S. Reid, Peter Knippertz, John H. Marsham, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Samuel Rémy, Sara Basart, Olivier Boucher, Ian M. Brooks, Laurent Menut, Lucia Mona, Paolo Laj, Gelsomina Pappalardo, Alfred Wiedensohler, Alexander Baklanov, Malcolm Brooks, Peter R. Colarco, Emilio Cuevas, Arlindo da Silva, Jeronimo Escribano, Johannes Flemming, Nicolas Huneeus, Oriol Jorba, Stelios Kazadzis, Stefan Kinne, Thomas Popp, Patricia K. Quinn, Thomas T. Sekiyama, Taichu Tanaka, and Enric Terradellas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10615–10643, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10615-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical prediction of aerosol particle properties has become an important activity at many research and operational weather centers. This development is due to growing interest from a diverse set of stakeholders, such as air quality regulatory bodies, aviation authorities, solar energy plant managers, climate service providers, and health professionals. This paper describes the advances in the field and sets out requirements for observations for the sustainability of these activities.
Duoying Ji, Songsong Fang, Charles L. Curry, Hiroki Kashimura, Shingo Watanabe, Jason N. S. Cole, Andrew Lenton, Helene Muri, Ben Kravitz, and John C. Moore
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10133–10156, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10133-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10133-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We examine extreme temperature and precipitation under climate-model-simulated solar dimming and stratospheric aerosol injection geoengineering schemes. Both types of geoengineering lead to lower minimum temperatures at higher latitudes and greater cooling of minimum temperatures and maximum temperatures over land compared with oceans. Stratospheric aerosol injection is more effective in reducing tropical extreme precipitation, while solar dimming is more effective over extra-tropical regions.
Claudia Timmreck, Graham W. Mann, Valentina Aquila, Rene Hommel, Lindsay A. Lee, Anja Schmidt, Christoph Brühl, Simon Carn, Mian Chin, Sandip S. Dhomse, Thomas Diehl, Jason M. English, Michael J. Mills, Ryan Neely, Jianxiong Sheng, Matthew Toohey, and Debra Weisenstein
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2581–2608, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2581-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2581-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The paper describes the experimental design of the Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (ISA-MIP). ISA-MIP will improve understanding of stratospheric aerosol processes, chemistry, and dynamics and constrain climate impacts of background aerosol variability and small and large volcanic eruptions. It will help to asses the stratospheric aerosol contribution to the early 21st century global warming hiatus period and the effects from hypothetical geoengineering schemes.
Qin Wang, John C. Moore, and Duoying Ji
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 9173–9188, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9173-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9173-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
(1) Genesis potential and ventilation indices are assessed in 6 ESMs running RCP4.5 and G4, in 6 tropical cyclone genesis basins.
(2) Genesis potential is reasonably well parameterized by simple surface temperature, but other factors are important in different basins and models such as relative humidity and wind shear.
(3) The Northern Hemisphere basins behave rather differently from the southern ones, and these dominate TC statistics. G4 leads to significantly fewer TCs globally than RCP4.5.
Steven T. Turnock, Oliver Wild, Frank J. Dentener, Yanko Davila, Louisa K. Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Gerd A. Folberth, Daven K. Henze, Jan E. Jonson, Terry J. Keating, Sudo Kengo, Meiyun Lin, Marianne Lund, Simone Tilmes, and Fiona M. O'Connor
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8953–8978, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8953-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8953-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A simple parameterisation was developed in this study to provide a rapid assessment of the impacts and uncertainties associated with future emission control strategies by predicting changes to surface ozone air quality and near-term climate forcing of ozone. Future emissions scenarios based on currently implemented legislation are shown to worsen surface ozone air quality and enhance near-term climate warming, with changes in methane becoming increasingly important in the future.
Anboyu Guo, John C. Moore, and Duoying Ji
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8689–8706, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8689-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8689-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This is an examination of both the zonal and meridional tropical circulations under G1 geoengineering using eight ESMs. Drivers of the changes are examined, with meridional temperature gradient being the dominant factor. The Hadley circulation is changed under G1 differently for each hemisphere, but changes are small compared with abrupt4xCO2. Changes in the Walker circulation are subtle but potentially important in some regions, and ENSO impacts circulations only slightly differently under G1.
Benjamin Brown-Steiner, Noelle E. Selin, Ronald G. Prinn, Erwan Monier, Simone Tilmes, Louisa Emmons, and Fernando Garcia-Menendez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8373–8388, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8373-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8373-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Detecting signals in observations and simulations of atmospheric chemistry is difficult due to the underlying variability in the chemistry, meteorology, and climatology. Here we examine the scale dependence of ozone variability and explore strategies for reducing or averaging this variability and thereby enhancing ozone signal detection capabilities. We find that 10–15 years of temporal averaging, and some level of spatial averaging, reduces the risk of overconfidence in ozone signals.
Tao Tang, Drew Shindell, Bjørn H. Samset, Oliviér Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Gunnar Myhre, Jana Sillmann, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Timothy Andrews, Gregory Faluvegi, Dagmar Fläschner, Trond Iversen, Matthew Kasoar, Viatcheslav Kharin, Alf Kirkevåg, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Dirk Olivié, Thomas Richardson, Camilla W. Stjern, and Toshihiko Takemura
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8439–8452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8439-2018, 2018
Sandip S. Dhomse, Douglas Kinnison, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Ross J. Salawitch, Irene Cionni, Michaela I. Hegglin, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alex T. Archibald, Ewa M. Bednarz, Slimane Bekki, Peter Braesicke, Neal Butchart, Martin Dameris, Makoto Deushi, Stacey Frith, Steven C. Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Larry W. Horowitz, Rong-Ming Hu, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Oliver Kirner, Stefanie Kremser, Ulrike Langematz, Jared Lewis, Marion Marchand, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M. O'Connor, Luke Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, John A. Pyle, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Simone Tilmes, Daniele Visioni, Yousuke Yamashita, and Guang Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8409–8438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8409-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospheric ozone layer from depletion by anthropogenic chlorine and bromine. The simulations from 20 models project that global column ozone will return to 1980 values in 2047 (uncertainty range 2042–2052). Return dates in other regions vary depending on factors related to climate change and importance of chlorine and bromine. Column ozone in the tropics may continue to decline.
Xiaokang Wu, Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Clara Orbe, Simone Tilmes, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7439–7452, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7439-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7439-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The seasonal and interannual variability of transport times from northern mid-latitudes into the southern hemisphere is examined using simulations of
agetracers. The largest variability occurs near the surface close to the tropical convergence zones, but the peak is further south and there is a smaller tropical–extratropical contrast for tracers with more rapid loss. Hence the variability of trace gases in the southern extratropics will vary with their chemical lifetime.
Clara Orbe, Huang Yang, Darryn W. Waugh, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, David A. Plummer, John F. Scinocca, Beatrice Josse, Virginie Marecal, Patrick Jöckel, Luke D. Oman, Susan E. Strahan, Makoto Deushi, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Kohei Yoshida, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Andreas Stenke, Laura Revell, Timofei Sukhodolov, Eugene Rozanov, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Kane A. Stone, Robyn Schofield, and Antara Banerjee
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 7217–7235, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7217-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we compare a few atmospheric transport properties among several numerical models that are used to study the influence of atmospheric chemistry on climate. We show that there are large differences among models in terms of the timescales that connect the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, where greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances are emitted, to the Southern Hemisphere. Our results may have important implications for how models represent atmospheric composition.
Jiani Tan, Joshua S. Fu, Frank Dentener, Jian Sun, Louisa Emmons, Simone Tilmes, Kengo Sudo, Johannes Flemming, Jan Eiof Jonson, Sylvie Gravel, Huisheng Bian, Yanko Davila, Daven K. Henze, Marianne T. Lund, Tom Kucsera, Toshihiko Takemura, and Terry Keating
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6847–6866, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6847-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6847-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We study the distributions of sulfur and nitrogen deposition, which are associated with current environmental issues such as formation of acid rain and ecosystem eutrophication and result in widespread problems such as loss of environmental diversity, harming the crop yield and even food insecurity. According to our study, both the amount and distribution of sulfate and nitrogen deposition have changed significantly in the last decade, particularly in East Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia.
Liyun Zhao, John C. Moore, Bo Sun, Xueyuan Tang, and Xiaoran Guo
The Cryosphere, 12, 1651–1663, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1651-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1651-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the age–depth profile to be expected of the ongoing deep ice coring at Kunlun station, Dome A, using the depth-varying anisotropic fabric suggested by the recent polarimetric measurements in a three-dimensional, thermo-mechanically coupled full-Stokes model. The model results suggest that the age of the deep ice at Kunlun is 649–831 ka, and there are large regions where 1-million-year-old ice may be found 200 m above the bedrock within 5–6 km of the Kunlun station.
Yongmei Gong, Thomas Zwinger, Jan Åström, Bas Altena, Thomas Schellenberger, Rupert Gladstone, and John C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 12, 1563–1577, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1563-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we apply a discrete element model capable of simulating ice fracturing. A microscopic-scale discrete process is applied in addition to a continuum ice dynamics model to investigate the mechanisms facilitated by basal meltwater production, surface meltwater and ice crack opening, for the surge in Basin 3, Austfonna ice cap. The discrete element model is used to locate the ice cracks that can penetrate though the full thickness of the glacier and deliver surface water to the bed.
David P. Keller, Andrew Lenton, Vivian Scott, Naomi E. Vaughan, Nico Bauer, Duoying Ji, Chris D. Jones, Ben Kravitz, Helene Muri, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1133–1160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
There is little consensus on the impacts and efficacy of proposed carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods as a potential means of mitigating climate change. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDR-MIP) has been initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDR-MIP experiments.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz, Andrew C. Manning, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Oliver D. Andrews, Vivek K. Arora, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Leticia Barbero, Meike Becker, Richard A. Betts, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Catherine E. Cosca, Jessica Cross, Kim Currie, Thomas Gasser, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Christopher W. Hunt, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Markus Kautz, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Ivan Lima, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Yukihiro Nojiri, X. Antonio Padin, Anna Peregon, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Janet Reimer, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Steven van Heuven, Nicolas Viovy, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Watson, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, and Dan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 405–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-405-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2017 describes data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. It is the 12th annual update and the 6th published in this journal.
Thibaut Lurton, Fabrice Jégou, Gwenaël Berthet, Jean-Baptiste Renard, Lieven Clarisse, Anja Schmidt, Colette Brogniez, and Tjarda J. Roberts
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3223–3247, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3223-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3223-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the chemical and microphysical effects of volcanic SO2 and HCl from the June 2009 Sarychev Peak eruption using a comprehensive aerosol–chemistry model combined with in situ measurements and satellite retrievals. Our results suggest that previous studies underestimated the eruption's atmospheric and climatic impact, mainly because previous model-to-satellite comparisons had to make assumptions about the aerosol size distribution and were based on biased satellite retrievals of AOD.
Christoph Kleinschmitt, Olivier Boucher, and Ulrich Platt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2769–2786, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2769-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2769-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We use a state-of-the-art stratospheric aerosol model to study geoengineering through stratospheric sulfur injections. We find that the efficiency may decrease more drastically for larger injections than previously estimated and that injections at higher altitude are not more effective. This study may provide additional evidence that this proposed geoengineering technique is still more complicated, probably less effective, and may implicate stronger side effects than initially thought.
Lauren Marshall, Anja Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Ken S. Carslaw, Graham W. Mann, Michael Sigl, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Davide Zanchettin, William T. Ball, Slimane Bekki, James S. A. Brooke, Sandip Dhomse, Colin Johnson, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Allegra N. LeGrande, Michael J. Mills, Ulrike Niemeier, James O. Pope, Virginie Poulain, Alan Robock, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 2307–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We use four global aerosol models to compare the simulated sulfate deposition from the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption to ice core records. Inter-model volcanic sulfate deposition differs considerably. Volcanic sulfate deposited on polar ice sheets is used to estimate the atmospheric sulfate burden and subsequently radiative forcing of historic eruptions. Our results suggest that deriving such relationships from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.
Roland Séférian, Sunghye Baek, Olivier Boucher, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Bertrand Decharme, David Saint-Martin, and Romain Roehrig
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 321–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-321-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-321-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new interactive scheme for ocean surface albedo suited for the current generation of Earth system models. This scheme computes the ocean surface albedo accounting for the spectral dependence (across a range of wavelengths between 200 and 4000 nm), the characteristics of incident solar radiation (direct of diffuse), the effects of surface winds, chlorophyll content and whitecaps in addition to the canonical solar zenith angle dependence.
Camilla W. Stjern, Helene Muri, Lars Ahlm, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Jim Haywood, Ben Kravitz, Andrew Lenton, John C. Moore, Ulrike Niemeier, Steven J. Phipps, Hauke Schmidt, Shingo Watanabe, and Jón Egill Kristjánsson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 621–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-621-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-621-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Marine cloud brightening (MCB) has been proposed to help limit global warming. We present here the first multi-model assessment of idealized MCB simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. While all models predict a global cooling as intended, there is considerable spread between the models both in terms of radiative forcing and the climate response, largely linked to the substantial differences in the models' representation of clouds.
Justin Bandoro, Susan Solomon, Benjamin D. Santer, Douglas E. Kinnison, and Michael J. Mills
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 143–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-143-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-143-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the attribution of stratospheric ozone changes and identified similarities between observations and human fingerprints from both emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs). We developed an improvement on the traditional pattern correlation method that accounts for nonlinearities in the climate forcing time evolution. Use of the latter resulted in increased S / N ratios for the ODS fingerprint. The GHG fingerprint was not identifiable.
Nelson Bègue, Damien Vignelles, Gwenaël Berthet, Thierry Portafaix, Guillaume Payen, Fabrice Jégou, Hassan Benchérif, Julien Jumelet, Jean-Paul Vernier, Thibaut Lurton, Jean-Baptiste Renard, Lieven Clarisse, Vincent Duverger, Françoise Posny, Jean-Marc Metzger, and Sophie Godin-Beekmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 15019–15036, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-15019-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-15019-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The space–time evolutions of the Calbuco plume are investigated by combining satellite, in situ aerosol counting and lidar observations, and a numerical model. All the data at Reunion Island reveal a twofold increase in the amount of aerosol with respect to the values observed before the eruption. The dynamic context has favored the spread of the plume exclusively in the Southern Hemisphere. This study highlights the role played by dynamical barriers in the transport of atmospheric species.
Ulrike Niemeier and Hauke Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14871–14886, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14871-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14871-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
An artificial stratospheric sulfur layer heats the lower stratosphere which impacts stratospheric dynamics and transport. The quasi-biennial oscillation shuts down due to the heated sulfur layer which impacts the meridional transport of the sulfate aerosols. The tropical confinement of the sulfate is stronger and the radiative forcing efficiency of the aerosol layer decreases compared to previous studies, as does the forcing when increasing the injection height.
Sainan Sun, Stephen L. Cornford, John C. Moore, Rupert Gladstone, and Liyun Zhao
The Cryosphere, 11, 2543–2554, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2543-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2543-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The buttressing effect of the floating ice shelves is diminished by the fracture process. We developed a continuum damage mechanics model component of the ice sheet model to simulate the process. The model is tested on an ideal marine ice sheet geometry. We find that behavior of the simulated marine ice sheet is sensitive to fracture processes on the ice shelf, and the stiffness of ice around the grounding line is essential to ice sheet evolution.
Lars Ahlm, Andy Jones, Camilla W. Stjern, Helene Muri, Ben Kravitz, and Jón Egill Kristjánsson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13071–13087, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13071-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13071-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present results from coordinated simulations with three Earth system models focusing on the response of Earth’s radiation balance to the injection of sea salt particles. We find that in most regions the effective radiative forcing by the injected particles is equally large in cloudy and clear-sky conditions, suggesting a more important role of the aerosol direct effect in sea spray climate engineering than previously thought.
Lili Xia, Peer J. Nowack, Simone Tilmes, and Alan Robock
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11913–11928, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11913-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11913-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone is a key air pollutant. We model two geoengineering schemes, stratospheric sulfur injection and solar irradiance reduction, to compare their impacts on atmospheric ozone concentrations. With the nearly identical global mean surface temperature reduction, solar dimming increases global average surface ozone concentration, while sulfate injection decreases it. This difference is due to different stratosphere–troposphere exchange of ozone and tropospheric ozone chemistry in the two scenarios.
Daniele Visioni, Giovanni Pitari, Valentina Aquila, Simone Tilmes, Irene Cionni, Glauco Di Genova, and Eva Mancini
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11209–11226, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11209-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11209-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Sulfate geoengineering (SG), the sustained injection of SO2 in the lower stratosphere, is being discussed as a way to counterbalance surface warming, mimicking volcanic eruptions. In this paper, we analyse results from two models part of the GeoMIP project in order to understand the effect SG might have on the concentration and lifetime of methane, which acts in the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas. Understanding possible side effects of SG is a crucial step if its viability is to be assessed.
Christoph Kleinschmitt, Olivier Boucher, Slimane Bekki, François Lott, and Ulrich Platt
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3359–3378, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3359-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3359-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Stratospheric aerosols play an important role in the climate system by affecting the Earth's radiative budget. In this article we present the newly developed LMDZ-S3A model and assess its performance against observations in periods of low and high aerosol loading. The model may serve as a tool to study the climate impacts of volcanic eruptions, as well as the deliberate injection of aerosols into the stratosphere, which has been proposed as a method of geoengineering to abate global warming.
Maria A. Navarro, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Carlos A. Cuevas, Rafael P. Fernandez, Elliot Atlas, Xavier Rodriguez-Lloveras, Douglas Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, Troy Thornberry, Andrew Rollins, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, and Fred L. Moore
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9917–9930, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9917-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9917-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Inorganic bromine (Bry) plays an important role in ozone layer depletion. Based on aircraft observations of organic bromine species and chemistry simulations, we model the Bry abundances over the Pacific tropical tropopause. Our results show BrO and Br as the dominant species during daytime hours, and BrCl and BrONO2 as the nighttime dominant species over the western and eastern Pacific, respectively. The difference in the partitioning is due to changes in the abundance of O3, NO2, and Cly.
Jerónimo Escribano, Olivier Boucher, Frédéric Chevallier, and Nicolás Huneeus
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7111–7126, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7111-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7111-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Top-down estimates of mineral dust flux usually rely on a single observational dataset whose observational errors propagate onto the emission estimates. Aerosol optical depth from five satellites are assimilated one by one into a source inversion system over northern Africa. We find a relatively large dispersion in flux estimates among the five experiments, which can likely be attributed to differences in the assimilated observational datasets and their associated error statistics.
Liyun Zhao, Yi Yang, Wei Cheng, Duoying Ji, and John C. Moore
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6547–6564, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6547-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6547-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We find stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection geoengineering, G3, can slow shrinkage of high-mountain Asia glaciers by about 50 % by 2069 relative to losses from RCP8.5. The reduction in mean precipitation expected for solar geoengineering is less important than the temperature-driven shift from solid to liquid precipitation for forcing Himalayan glacier change. The termination of geoengineering in 2069 leads to temperature rise of 1.3 °C and corresponding increase in glacier volume loss rate.
Adrien Napoly, Aaron Boone, Patrick Samuelsson, Stefan Gollvik, Eric Martin, Roland Seferian, Dominique Carrer, Bertrand Decharme, and Lionel Jarlan
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1621–1644, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1621-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1621-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper is the second part of a new parameterization for canopy representation that has been developed in the Interactions between the Surface Biosphere Atmosphere model (ISBA). A module for the explicit representation of the litter bellow forest canopies has been added. Then, the first evaluation of these new developments is performed at local scale among three well-instrumented sites and then at the global scale using the FLUXNET network.
Hiroki Kashimura, Manabu Abe, Shingo Watanabe, Takashi Sekiya, Duoying Ji, John C. Moore, Jason N. S. Cole, and Ben Kravitz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3339–3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3339-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3339-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyses shortwave radiation (SW) in the G4 experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. G4 involves stratospheric injection of 5 Tg yr−1 of SO2 against the RCP4.5 scenario. The global mean forcing of the sulphate geoengineering has an inter-model variablity of −3.6 to −1.6 W m−2, implying a high uncertainty in modelled processes of sulfate aerosols. Changes in water vapour and cloud amounts due to the SO2 injection weaken the forcing at the surface by around 50 %.
Gwenaël Berthet, Fabrice Jégou, Valéry Catoire, Gisèle Krysztofiak, Jean-Baptiste Renard, Adam E. Bourassa, Doug A. Degenstein, Colette Brogniez, Marcel Dorf, Sebastian Kreycy, Klaus Pfeilsticker, Bodo Werner, Franck Lefèvre, Tjarda J. Roberts, Thibaut Lurton, Damien Vignelles, Nelson Bègue, Quentin Bourgeois, Daniel Daugeron, Michel Chartier, Claude Robert, Bertrand Gaubicher, and Christophe Guimbaud
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2229–2253, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2229-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2229-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Since the last major volcanic event, i.e. the Pinatubo eruption in 1991, only
moderateeruptions have regularly injected sulfur into the stratosphere, typically enhancing the aerosol loading for several months. We investigate here for the first time the chemical perturbation associated with the Sarychev eruption in June 2009, using balloon-borne instruments and model calculations. Some chemical compounds are significantly affected by the aerosols, but the impact on stratospheric ozone is weak.
Olaf Morgenstern, Michaela I. Hegglin, Eugene Rozanov, Fiona M. O'Connor, N. Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T. Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S. Dhomse, Rolando R. Garcia, Steven C. Hardiman, Larry W. Horowitz, Patrick Jöckel, Beatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini, Michael E. Manyin, Marion Marchand, Virginie Marécal, Martine Michou, Luke D. Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A. Plummer, Laura E. Revell, David Saint-Martin, Robyn Schofield, Andrea Stenke, Kane Stone, Kengo Sudo, Taichu Y. Tanaka, Simone Tilmes, Yousuke Yamashita, Kohei Yoshida, and Guang Zeng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 639–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-639-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present a review of the make-up of 20 models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). In comparison to earlier such activities, most of these models comprise a whole-atmosphere chemistry, and several of them include an interactive ocean module. This makes them suitable for studying the interactions of tropospheric air quality, stratospheric ozone, and climate. The paper lays the foundation for other studies using the CCMI simulations for scientific analysis.
William J. Collins, Jean-François Lamarque, Michael Schulz, Olivier Boucher, Veronika Eyring, Michaela I. Hegglin, Amanda Maycock, Gunnar Myhre, Michael Prather, Drew Shindell, and Steven J. Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 585–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We have designed a set of climate model experiments called the Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). These are designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases in the climate models that are used to simulate past and future climate. We hope that many climate modelling centres will choose to run these experiments to help understand the contribution of aerosols and chemistry to climate change.
Rafael P. Fernandez, Douglas E. Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, and Alfonso Saiz-Lopez
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 1673–1688, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1673-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1673-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The inclusion of biogenic very-short lived bromine (VSLBr) in a chemistry-climate model produces an expansion of the ozone hole area of ~ 5 million km2, which is equivalent in magnitude to the recently estimated Antarctic ozone healing due to the reduction of anthropogenic CFCs and halons. The maximum Antarctic ozone hole depletion increases by up to 14 % when natural VSLBr are considered, but does not introduce a significant delay of the modelled ozone return date to 1980 October levels.
Thomas Gasser, Philippe Ciais, Olivier Boucher, Yann Quilcaille, Maxime Tortora, Laurent Bopp, and Didier Hauglustaine
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 271–319, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-271-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-271-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Simple models of the Earth system are useful, especially because of their high computing efficiency. This work describes the OSCAR model: a new simple Earth system model calibrated on state-of-the-art complex models. It will add to the pool of the few simple models currently used by the community, and it will therefore improve the robustness of future studies. Its source code is available upon request.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results in order to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.
Camilla Weum Stjern, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Huisheng Bian, Mian Chin, Yanko Davila, Frank Dentener, Louisa Emmons, Johannes Flemming, Amund Søvde Haslerud, Daven Henze, Jan Eiof Jonson, Tom Kucsera, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Michael Schulz, Kengo Sudo, Toshihiko Takemura, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 13579–13599, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13579-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13579-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Air pollution can reach distant regions through intercontinental transport. Here we first present results from the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 exercise, where many models performed the same set of coordinated emission-reduction experiments. We find that mitigations have considerable extra-regional effects, and show that this is particularly true for black carbon emissions, as long-range transport elevates aerosols to higher levels where their radiative influence is stronger.
Davide Zanchettin, Myriam Khodri, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Anja Schmidt, Edwin P. Gerber, Gabriele Hegerl, Alan Robock, Francesco S. R. Pausata, William T. Ball, Susanne E. Bauer, Slimane Bekki, Sandip S. Dhomse, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham W. Mann, Lauren Marshall, Michael Mills, Marion Marchand, Ulrike Niemeier, Virginie Poulain, Eugene Rozanov, Angelo Rubino, Andrea Stenke, Kostas Tsigaridis, and Fiona Tummon
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2701–2719, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2701-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Simulating volcanically-forced climate variability is a challenging task for climate models. The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) – an endorsed contribution to CMIP6 – defines a protocol for idealized volcanic-perturbation experiments to improve comparability of results across different climate models. This paper illustrates the design of VolMIP's experiments and describes the aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.
Wenli Wang, Annette Rinke, John C. Moore, Duoying Ji, Xuefeng Cui, Shushi Peng, David M. Lawrence, A. David McGuire, Eleanor J. Burke, Xiaodong Chen, Bertrand Decharme, Charles Koven, Andrew MacDougall, Kazuyuki Saito, Wenxin Zhang, Ramdane Alkama, Theodore J. Bohn, Philippe Ciais, Christine Delire, Isabelle Gouttevin, Tomohiro Hajima, Gerhard Krinner, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Paul A. Miller, Benjamin Smith, Tetsuo Sueyoshi, and Artem B. Sherstiukov
The Cryosphere, 10, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The winter snow insulation is a key process for air–soil temperature coupling and is relevant for permafrost simulations. Differences in simulated air–soil temperature relationships and their modulation by climate conditions are found to be related to the snow model physics. Generally, models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes.
Nicholas A. Davis, Dian J. Seidel, Thomas Birner, Sean M. Davis, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 10083–10095, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10083-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-10083-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In the Hadley cells, air rises at the Equator and sinks over the subtropics, drying the air and creating deserts on land. We investigated simple climate model experiments and found that the Hadley cells expand in response to increasing carbon dioxide. The climate of some models warms more than others, and these models also have greater Hadley cell expansion. This expansion could shift deserts toward more populated areas, with potentially major impacts on water resources and surface climate.
Jean-Baptiste Renard, François Dulac, Gwenaël Berthet, Thibaut Lurton, Damien Vignelles, Fabrice Jégou, Thierry Tonnelier, Matthieu Jeannot, Benoit Couté, Rony Akiki, Nicolas Verdier, Marc Mallet, François Gensdarmes, Patrick Charpentier, Samuel Mesmin, Vincent Duverger, Jean-Charles Dupont, Thierry Elias, Vincent Crenn, Jean Sciare, Paul Zieger, Matthew Salter, Tjarda Roberts, Jérôme Giacomoni, Matthieu Gobbi, Eric Hamonou, Haraldur Olafsson, Pavla Dagsson-Waldhauserova, Claude Camy-Peyret, Christophe Mazel, Thierry Décamps, Martin Piringer, Jérémy Surcin, and Daniel Daugeron
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 3673–3686, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-3673-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-3673-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We illustrate the first Light Optical Aerosol Counter (LOAC) airborne results obtained from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a variety of scientific balloons: tethered balloons deployed in urban environments, pressurized balloons drifting in the lower troposphere over the western Mediterranean during the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment (ChArMEx), and meteorological sounding balloons launched in the western Mediterranean region and in the south-west of France.
Charlotte Laufkötter, Meike Vogt, Nicolas Gruber, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Judith Hauck, Jasmin G. John, Ivan D. Lima, Roland Seferian, and Christoph Völker
Biogeosciences, 13, 4023–4047, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We compare future projections in marine export production, generated by four ecosystem models under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. While all models project decreases in export, they differ strongly regarding the drivers. The formation of sinking particles of organic matter is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. Changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for export in some models but of low significance in others.
Sarah A. Strode, Helen M. Worden, Megan Damon, Anne R. Douglass, Bryan N. Duncan, Louisa K. Emmons, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Michael Manyin, Luke D. Oman, Jose M. Rodriguez, Susan E. Strahan, and Simone Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 7285–7294, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7285-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-7285-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We use global models to interpret trends in MOPITT observations of CO. Simulations with time-dependent emissions reproduce the observed trends over the eastern USA and Europe, suggesting that the emissions are reasonable for these regions. The simulations produce a positive trend over eastern China, contrary to the observed negative trend. This may indicate that the assumed emission trend over China is too positive. However, large variability in the overhead ozone column also contributes.
Simone Tilmes, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Louisa K. Emmons, Doug E. Kinnison, Dan Marsh, Rolando R. Garcia, Anne K. Smith, Ryan R. Neely, Andrew Conley, Francis Vitt, Maria Val Martin, Hiroshi Tanimoto, Isobel Simpson, Don R. Blake, and Nicola Blake
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1853–1890, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1853-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The state of the art Community Earth System Model, CESM1 CAM4-chem has been used to perform reference and sensitivity simulations as part of the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Specifics of the model and details regarding the setup of the simulations are described. In additions, the main behavior of the model, including selected chemical species have been evaluated with climatological datasets. This paper is therefore a references for studies that use the provided model results.
Roland Séférian, Marion Gehlen, Laurent Bopp, Laure Resplandy, James C. Orr, Olivier Marti, John P. Dunne, James R. Christian, Scott C. Doney, Tatiana Ilyina, Keith Lindsay, Paul R. Halloran, Christoph Heinze, Joachim Segschneider, Jerry Tjiputra, Olivier Aumont, and Anastasia Romanou
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1827–1851, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1827-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1827-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores how the large diversity in spin-up protocols used for ocean biogeochemistry in CMIP5 models contributed to inter-model differences in modeled fields. We show that a link between spin-up duration and skill-score metrics emerges from both individual IPSL-CM5A-LR's results and an ensemble of CMIP5 models. Our study suggests that differences in spin-up protocols constitute a source of inter-model uncertainty which would require more attention in future intercomparison exercises.
Jean-Baptiste Renard, François Dulac, Gwenaël Berthet, Thibaut Lurton, Damien Vignelles, Fabrice Jégou, Thierry Tonnelier, Matthieu Jeannot, Benoit Couté, Rony Akiki, Nicolas Verdier, Marc Mallet, François Gensdarmes, Patrick Charpentier, Samuel Mesmin, Vincent Duverger, Jean-Charles Dupont, Thierry Elias, Vincent Crenn, Jean Sciare, Paul Zieger, Matthew Salter, Tjarda Roberts, Jérôme Giacomoni, Matthieu Gobbi, Eric Hamonou, Haraldur Olafsson, Pavla Dagsson-Waldhauserova, Claude Camy-Peyret, Christophe Mazel, Thierry Décamps, Martin Piringer, Jérémy Surcin, and Daniel Daugeron
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 1721–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-1721-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
LOAC is a light aerosols counter for performing measurements at the surface and under all kinds of atmospheric balloons. LOAC performs observations at two scattering angles. The first one at 12° is insensitive to the refractive index of the particles; the second one at 60° is strongly sensitive to the refractive index. By combining the measurements, it is possible to retrieve the size distribution between 0.2 and 100 micrometeres and to estimate the nature of the dominant particles.
Roland Séférian, Christine Delire, Bertrand Decharme, Aurore Voldoire, David Salas y Melia, Matthieu Chevallier, David Saint-Martin, Olivier Aumont, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Dominique Carrer, Hervé Douville, Laurent Franchistéguy, Emilie Joetzjer, and Séphane Sénési
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1423–1453, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1423-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1423-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the first IPCC-class Earth system model developed at Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-ESM1). We detail how the various carbon reservoirs were initialized and analyze the behavior of the carbon cycle and its prominent physical drivers, comparing model results to the most up-to-date climate and carbon cycle dataset over the latest decades.
Anthony C. Jones, James M. Haywood, and Andy Jones
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 2843–2862, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2843-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-2843-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we assess the potential climatic impacts of geoengineering with sulfate, black carbon and titania injection strategies. We find that black carbon injection results in severe stratospheric warming and precipitation impacts, and therefore black carbon is unsuitable for geoengineering purposes. As the injection rates and climatic impacts for titania are close to those for sulfate, there appears little benefit of using titania when compared to injection of sulfur dioxide.
L. Xia, A. Robock, S. Tilmes, and R. R. Neely III
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 1479–1489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1479-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1479-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model simulations show that stratospheric sulfate geoengineering could impact the terrestrial carbon cycle by enhancing the carbon sink. Enhanced downward diffuse radiation, combined with cooling, could stimulate plants to grow more and absorb more carbon dioxide. This beneficial impact of stratospheric sulfate geoengineering would need to be balanced by a large number of potential risks in any future decisions about implementation of geoengineering.
X. Liu, P.-L. Ma, H. Wang, S. Tilmes, B. Singh, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, and P. J. Rasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 505–522, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-505-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-505-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we describe and evaluate a new four-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4) in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Compared to the current three-mode version of MAM in CAM5, MAM4 significantly improves the simulation of seasonal variation of BC concentrations in the polar regions, by increasing the BC concentrations in all seasons and particularly in cold seasons.
W. Wang, A. Rinke, J. C. Moore, X. Cui, D. Ji, Q. Li, N. Zhang, C. Wang, S. Zhang, D. M. Lawrence, A. D. McGuire, W. Zhang, C. Delire, C. Koven, K. Saito, A. MacDougall, E. Burke, and B. Decharme
The Cryosphere, 10, 287–306, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-287-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We use a model-ensemble approach for simulating permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau. We identify the uncertainties across models (state-of-the-art land surface models) and across methods (most commonly used methods to define permafrost).
We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
We differentiate between uncertainties stemming from climatic driving data or from physical process parameterization, and show how these uncertainties vary seasonally and inter-annually, and how estimates are subject to the definition of permafrost used.
S. Peng, P. Ciais, G. Krinner, T. Wang, I. Gouttevin, A. D. McGuire, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, B. Decharme, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, C. Delire, T. Hajima, D. Ji, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. A. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
The Cryosphere, 10, 179–192, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Soil temperature change is a key indicator of the dynamics of permafrost. Using nine process-based ecosystem models with permafrost processes, a large spread of soil temperature trends across the models. Air temperature and longwave downward radiation are the main drivers of soil temperature trends. Based on an emerging observation constraint method, the total boreal near-surface permafrost area decrease comprised between 39 ± 14 × 103 and 75 ± 14 × 103 km2 yr−1 from 1960 to 2000.
A. Laakso, H. Kokkola, A.-I. Partanen, U. Niemeier, C. Timmreck, K. E. J. Lehtinen, H. Hakkarainen, and H. Korhonen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 305–323, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-305-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-305-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We have studied the impacts of a volcanic eruption during solar radiation management (SRM) using an aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM-SALSA and an Earth system model MPI-ESM. A volcanic eruption during stratospheric sulfur geoengineering would lead to larger particles and smaller amount of new particles than if an volcano erupts in normal atmospheric conditions. Thus, volcanic eruption during SRM would lead to only a small additional cooling which would last for a significantly shorter period.
J. He, Y. Zhang, S. Tilmes, L. Emmons, J.-F. Lamarque, T. Glotfelty, A. Hodzic, and F. Vitt
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3999–4025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3999-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3999-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The global simulations with CB05_GE and MOZART-4x predict similar chemical profiles for major gases compared to aircraft measurements, with better agreement for the NOy profile by CB05_GE. The SOA concentrations of SOA at four sites in CONUS and organic carbon over the IMPROVE sites are better predicted by MOZART-4x. The two simulations result in a global average difference of 0.5W m-2 in simulated shortwave cloud radiative forcing, with up to 13.6W m-2 over subtropical regions.
Y. Zheng, N. Unger, A. Hodzic, L. Emmons, C. Knote, S. Tilmes, J.-F. Lamarque, and P. Yu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 13487–13506, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13487-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-13487-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrogen oxides (NOx) play an important but complex role in secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation. In this study we update the SOA scheme in a global 3-D chemistry-climate model by implementing a 4-product volatility basis set (VBS) framework with NOx-dependent yields and simplified aging parameterizations. We find that the SOA decrease in response to a 50% reduction in anthropogenic NOx emissions is limited due to the buffering in different chemical pathways.
C. Laufkötter, M. Vogt, N. Gruber, M. Aita-Noguchi, O. Aumont, L. Bopp, E. Buitenhuis, S. C. Doney, J. Dunne, T. Hashioka, J. Hauck, T. Hirata, J. John, C. Le Quéré, I. D. Lima, H. Nakano, R. Seferian, I. Totterdell, M. Vichi, and C. Völker
Biogeosciences, 12, 6955–6984, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze changes in marine net primary production (NPP) and its drivers for the 21st century in 9 marine ecosystem models under the RCP8.5 scenario. NPP decreases in 5 models and increases in 1 model; 3 models show no significant trend. The main drivers include stronger nutrient limitation, but in many models warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the nutrient effect. Temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in biomass and NPP.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
H. Eskes, V. Huijnen, A. Arola, A. Benedictow, A.-M. Blechschmidt, E. Botek, O. Boucher, I. Bouarar, S. Chabrillat, E. Cuevas, R. Engelen, H. Flentje, A. Gaudel, J. Griesfeller, L. Jones, J. Kapsomenakis, E. Katragkou, S. Kinne, B. Langerock, M. Razinger, A. Richter, M. Schultz, M. Schulz, N. Sudarchikova, V. Thouret, M. Vrekoussis, A. Wagner, and C. Zerefos
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3523–3543, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3523-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3523-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The MACC project is preparing the operational atmosphere service of the European Copernicus Programme, and uses data assimilation to combine atmospheric models with available observations. Our paper provides an overview of the aerosol and trace gas validation activity of MACC. Topics are the validation requirements, the measurement data, the assimilation systems, the upgrade procedure, operational aspects and the scoring methods. A summary is provided of recent results, including special events.
B. Kravitz, A. Robock, S. Tilmes, O. Boucher, J. M. English, P. J. Irvine, A. Jones, M. G. Lawrence, M. MacCracken, H. Muri, J. C. Moore, U. Niemeier, S. J. Phipps, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, H. Wang, and S. Watanabe
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3379–3392, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3379-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3379-2015, 2015
M. Gil-Ojeda, M. Navarro-Comas, L. Gómez-Martín, J. A. Adame, A. Saiz-Lopez, C. A. Cuevas, Y. González, O. Puentedura, E. Cuevas, J.-F. Lamarque, D. Kinninson, and S. Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10567–10579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10567-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10567-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The NO2 seasonal evolution in the free troposphere (FT) has been established for the first time, based on a remote sensing technique (MAXDOAS) and thus avoiding the problems of the local pollution of in situ instruments. A clear seasonality has been found, with background levels of 20-40pptv. Evidence has been found on fast, direct injection of surface air into the free troposphere. This result might have implications on the FT distribution of halogens and other species with marine sources.
A. Stohl, B. Aamaas, M. Amann, L. H. Baker, N. Bellouin, T. K. Berntsen, O. Boucher, R. Cherian, W. Collins, N. Daskalakis, M. Dusinska, S. Eckhardt, J. S. Fuglestvedt, M. Harju, C. Heyes, Ø. Hodnebrog, J. Hao, U. Im, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, K. S. Law, M. T. Lund, R. Maas, C. R. MacIntosh, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, D. Olivié, J. Quaas, B. Quennehen, J.-C. Raut, S. T. Rumbold, B. H. Samset, M. Schulz, Ø. Seland, K. P. Shine, R. B. Skeie, S. Wang, K. E. Yttri, and T. Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10529–10566, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a summary of the findings of the ECLIPSE EU project. The project has investigated the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived climate pollutants (especially methane, ozone, aerosols) and has designed a global mitigation strategy that maximizes co-benefits between air quality and climate policy. Transient climate model simulations allowed quantifying the impacts on temperature (e.g., reduction in global warming by 0.22K for the decade 2041-2050) and precipitation.
V. N. Aswathy, O. Boucher, M. Quaas, U. Niemeier, H. Muri, J. Mülmenstädt, and J. Quaas
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9593–9610, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9593-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9593-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations conducted in the GeoMIP and IMPLICC model intercomparison studies for climate engineering by stratospheric sulfate injection and marine cloud brightening via sea salt are analysed and compared to the reference scenario RCP4.5. The focus is on extremes in surface temperature and precipitation. It is found that the extreme changes mostly follow the mean changes and that extremes are also in general well mitigated, except for in polar regions.
U. Niemeier and C. Timmreck
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 9129–9141, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9129-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-9129-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The injection of sulfur dioxide is considered as an option for solar radiation management. We have calculated the effects of SO2 injections up to 100 Tg(S)/y. Our calculations show that the forcing efficiency of the injection decays exponentially. This result implies that SO2 injections in the order of 6 times Mt. Pinatubo eruptions per year are required to keep temperatures constant at that anticipated for 2020, whilst maintaining business as usual emission conditions.
T. Zwinger, T. Malm, M. Schäfer, R. Stenberg, and J. C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 9, 1415–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1415-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1415-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
By deploying a large-scale high-resolution turbulent CFD simulation using the present-day topography of the Scharffenbergbotnen (SBB) valley, we show how the surrounding topography redirects incoming easterly katabatic storm fronts to impact the blue ice areas (BIA) inside the valley, where the snow cover frequently is removed. A further simulation of a reconstructed topography at the Late Glacial Maximum further reveals that the BIA at SBB must have formed after this period.
M. A. Rawlins, A. D. McGuire, J. S. Kimball, P. Dass, D. Lawrence, E. Burke, X. Chen, C. Delire, C. Koven, A. MacDougall, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T. J. Bohn, P. Ciais, B. Decharme, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D. P. Lettenmaier, P. Miller, J. C. Moore, B. Smith, and T. Sueyoshi
Biogeosciences, 12, 4385–4405, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We used outputs from nine models to better understand land-atmosphere CO2 exchanges across Northern Eurasia over the period 1960-1990. Model estimates were assessed against independent ground and satellite measurements. We find that the models show a weakening of the CO2 sink over time; the models tend to overestimate respiration, causing an underestimate in NEP; the model range in regional NEP is twice the multimodel mean. Residence time for soil carbon decreased, amid a gain in carbon storage.
L. K. Emmons, S. R. Arnold, S. A. Monks, V. Huijnen, S. Tilmes, K. S. Law, J. L. Thomas, J.-C. Raut, I. Bouarar, S. Turquety, Y. Long, B. Duncan, S. Steenrod, S. Strode, J. Flemming, J. Mao, J. Langner, A. M. Thompson, D. Tarasick, E. C. Apel, D. R. Blake, R. C. Cohen, J. Dibb, G. S. Diskin, A. Fried, S. R. Hall, L. G. Huey, A. J. Weinheimer, A. Wisthaler, T. Mikoviny, J. Nowak, J. Peischl, J. M. Roberts, T. Ryerson, C. Warneke, and D. Helmig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6721–6744, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6721-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6721-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Eleven 3-D tropospheric chemistry models have been compared and evaluated with observations in the Arctic during the International Polar Year (IPY 2008). Large differences are seen among the models, particularly related to the model chemistry of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and reactive nitrogen (NOx, PAN, HNO3) partitioning. Consistency among the models in the underestimation of CO, ethane and propane indicates the emission inventory is too low for these compounds.
R. Wang, Y. Balkanski, O. Boucher, L. Bopp, A. Chappell, P. Ciais, D. Hauglustaine, J. Peñuelas, and S. Tao
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6247–6270, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6247-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6247-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This study makes a first attempt to estimate the temporal trend of Fe emissions from anthropogenic and natural combustion sources from 1960 to 2007 and the emissions of Fe from mineral dust based on a recent mineralogical database. The new emission inventory is introduced into a global aerosol model. The simulated total Fe and soluble Fe concentrations in surface air as well as the deposition of total Fe are evaluated by observations over major continental and oceanic regions globally.
S. R. Arnold, L. K. Emmons, S. A. Monks, K. S. Law, D. A. Ridley, S. Turquety, S. Tilmes, J. L. Thomas, I. Bouarar, J. Flemming, V. Huijnen, J. Mao, B. N. Duncan, S. Steenrod, Y. Yoshida, J. Langner, and Y. Long
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 6047–6068, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6047-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-6047-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The extent to which forest fires produce the air pollutant and greenhouse gas ozone (O3) in the atmosphere at high latitudes in not well understood. We have compared how fire emissions produce O3 and its precursors in several models of atmospheric chemistry. We find enhancements in O3 in air dominated by fires in all models, which increase on average as fire emissions age. We also find that in situ O3 production in the Arctic is sensitive to details of organic chemistry and vertical lifting.
S. Tilmes, J.-F. Lamarque, L. K. Emmons, D. E. Kinnison, P.-L. Ma, X. Liu, S. Ghan, C. Bardeen, S. Arnold, M. Deeter, F. Vitt, T. Ryerson, J. W. Elkins, F. Moore, J. R. Spackman, and M. Val Martin
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1395–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1395-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1395-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), version 5, is now coupled to extensive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, called CAM5-chem, and is available in addition to CAM4-chem in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.2. Both configurations are well suited as tools for atmospheric chemistry modeling studies in the troposphere and lower stratosphere.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, G. P. Peters, P. Ciais, P. Friedlingstein, S. D. Jones, S. Sitch, P. Tans, A. Arneth, T. A. Boden, L. Bopp, Y. Bozec, J. G. Canadell, L. P. Chini, F. Chevallier, C. E. Cosca, I. Harris, M. Hoppema, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, A. K. Jain, T. Johannessen, E. Kato, R. F. Keeling, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, C. S. Landa, P. Landschützer, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, G. Marland, J. T. Mathis, N. Metzl, Y. Nojiri, A. Olsen, T. Ono, S. Peng, W. Peters, B. Pfeil, B. Poulter, M. R. Raupach, P. Regnier, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, J. E. Salisbury, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, J. Segschneider, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, G. R. van der Werf, N. Viovy, Y.-P. Wang, R. Wanninkhof, A. Wiltshire, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities (burning fossil fuels and cement production, deforestation and other land-use change) are set to rise again in 2014.
This study (updated yearly) makes an accurate assessment of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and their redistribution between the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in order to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change.
S. A. Monks, S. R. Arnold, L. K. Emmons, K. S. Law, S. Turquety, B. N. Duncan, J. Flemming, V. Huijnen, S. Tilmes, J. Langner, J. Mao, Y. Long, J. L. Thomas, S. D. Steenrod, J. C. Raut, C. Wilson, M. P. Chipperfield, G. S. Diskin, A. Weinheimer, H. Schlager, and G. Ancellet
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 3575–3603, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3575-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-3575-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Multi-model simulations of Arctic CO, O3 and OH are evaluated using observations. Models show highly variable concentrations but the relative importance of emission regions and types is robust across the models, demonstrating the importance of biomass burning as a source. Idealised tracer experiments suggest that some of the model spread is due to variations in simulated transport from Europe in winter and from Asia throughout the year.
M. Val Martin, C. L. Heald, J.-F. Lamarque, S. Tilmes, L. K. Emmons, and B. A. Schichtel
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2805–2823, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2805-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2805-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We present for the first time the relative effect of climate, emissions, and land use change on ozone and PM25 over the United States, focusing on the national parks. Air quality in 2050 will likely be dominated by emission patterns, but climate and land use changes alone can lead to a substantial increase in air pollution over most of the US, with important implications for O3 air quality, visibility and ecosystem health degradation in the national parks.
J.-B. Renard, F. Dulac, G. Berthet, T. Lurton, D. Vignelle, F. Jégou, T. Tonnelier, C. Thaury, M. Jeannot, B. Couté, R. Akiki, J.-L. Mineau, N. Verdier, M. Mallet, F. Gensdarmes, P. Charpentier, S. Mesmin, V. Duverger, J.-C. Dupont, T. Elias, V. Crenn, J. Sciare, J. Giacomoni, M. Gobbi, E. Hamonou, H. Olafsson, P. Dagsson-Waldhauserova, C. Camy-Peyret, C. Mazel, T. Décamps, M. Piringer, J. Surcin, and D. Daugeron
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amtd-8-1261-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amtd-8-1261-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We present exemples of measurements obtained by the new light optical aerosol counter LOAC. The measurement were conducted from different kinds of balloons in the troposphre and stratosphere.
S. Tilmes, M. J. Mills, U. Niemeier, H. Schmidt, A. Robock, B. Kravitz, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Pitari, and J. M. English
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 43–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-43-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-43-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment “G4 specified stratospheric aerosols” (G4SSA) is proposed to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on atmosphere, chemistry, dynamics, climate, and the environment. In contrast to the earlier G4 GeoMIP experiment, which requires an emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the model, a prescribed aerosol forcing file is provided to the community, to be consistently applied to future model experiments.
M. Gehlen, R. Séférian, D. O. B. Jones, T. Roy, R. Roth, J. Barry, L. Bopp, S. C. Doney, J. P. Dunne, C. Heinze, F. Joos, J. C. Orr, L. Resplandy, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 11, 6955–6967, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6955-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6955-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates potential impacts of pH reductions on North Atlantic deep-sea ecosystems in response to latest IPCC scenarios.Multi-model projections of pH changes over the seafloor are analysed with reference to a critical threshold based on palaeo-oceanographic studies, contemporary observations and model results. By 2100 under the most severe IPCC CO2 scenario, pH reductions occur over ~23% of deep-sea canyons and ~8% of seamounts – including seamounts proposed as marine protected areas.
A. Saiz-Lopez, R. P. Fernandez, C. Ordóñez, D. E. Kinnison, J. C. Gómez Martín, J.-F. Lamarque, and S. Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13119–13143, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13119-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13119-2014, 2014
K. Tsigaridis, N. Daskalakis, M. Kanakidou, P. J. Adams, P. Artaxo, R. Bahadur, Y. Balkanski, S. E. Bauer, N. Bellouin, A. Benedetti, T. Bergman, T. K. Berntsen, J. P. Beukes, H. Bian, K. S. Carslaw, M. Chin, G. Curci, T. Diehl, R. C. Easter, S. J. Ghan, S. L. Gong, A. Hodzic, C. R. Hoyle, T. Iversen, S. Jathar, J. L. Jimenez, J. W. Kaiser, A. Kirkevåg, D. Koch, H. Kokkola, Y. H Lee, G. Lin, X. Liu, G. Luo, X. Ma, G. W. Mann, N. Mihalopoulos, J.-J. Morcrette, J.-F. Müller, G. Myhre, S. Myriokefalitakis, N. L. Ng, D. O'Donnell, J. E. Penner, L. Pozzoli, K. J. Pringle, L. M. Russell, M. Schulz, J. Sciare, Ø. Seland, D. T. Shindell, S. Sillman, R. B. Skeie, D. Spracklen, T. Stavrakou, S. D. Steenrod, T. Takemura, P. Tiitta, S. Tilmes, H. Tost, T. van Noije, P. G. van Zyl, K. von Salzen, F. Yu, Z. Wang, Z. Wang, R. A. Zaveri, H. Zhang, K. Zhang, Q. Zhang, and X. Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 10845–10895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10845-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10845-2014, 2014
A. Khodayari, S. Tilmes, S. C. Olsen, D. B. Phoenix, D. J. Wuebbles, J.-F. Lamarque, and C.-C. Chen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9925–9939, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9925-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9925-2014, 2014
D. Ji, L. Wang, J. Feng, Q. Wu, H. Cheng, Q. Zhang, J. Yang, W. Dong, Y. Dai, D. Gong, R.-H. Zhang, X. Wang, J. Liu, J. C. Moore, D. Chen, and M. Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2039–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2039-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2039-2014, 2014
K. Sindelarova, C. Granier, I. Bouarar, A. Guenther, S. Tilmes, T. Stavrakou, J.-F. Müller, U. Kuhn, P. Stefani, and W. Knorr
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9317–9341, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9317-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9317-2014, 2014
S. Sun, S. L. Cornford, Y. Liu, and J. C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 8, 1561–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1561-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1561-2014, 2014
R. Gladstone, M. Schäfer, T. Zwinger, Y. Gong, T. Strozzi, R. Mottram, F. Boberg, and J. C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 8, 1393–1405, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1393-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1393-2014, 2014
B. Sun, J. C. Moore, T. Zwinger, L. Zhao, D. Steinhage, X. Tang, D. Zhang, X. Cui, and C. Martín
The Cryosphere, 8, 1121–1128, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1121-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1121-2014, 2014
R. E. L. West, P. Stier, A. Jones, C. E. Johnson, G. W. Mann, N. Bellouin, D. G. Partridge, and Z. Kipling
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6369–6393, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6369-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6369-2014, 2014
M. Ménégoz, G. Krinner, Y. Balkanski, O. Boucher, A. Cozic, S. Lim, P. Ginot, P. Laj, H. Gallée, P. Wagnon, A. Marinoni, and H. W. Jacobi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4237–4249, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4237-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4237-2014, 2014
K. E. O. Todd-Brown, J. T. Randerson, F. Hopkins, V. Arora, T. Hajima, C. Jones, E. Shevliakova, J. Tjiputra, E. Volodin, T. Wu, Q. Zhang, and S. D. Allison
Biogeosciences, 11, 2341–2356, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2341-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2341-2014, 2014
T. Zwinger, M. Schäfer, C. Martín, and J. C. Moore
The Cryosphere, 8, 607–621, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-607-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-607-2014, 2014
J.-F. Exbrayat, A. J. Pitman, Q. Zhang, G. Abramowitz, and Y.-P. Wang
Biogeosciences, 10, 7095–7108, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7095-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7095-2013, 2013
J. A. Åström, T. I. Riikilä, T. Tallinen, T. Zwinger, D. Benn, J. C. Moore, and J. Timonen
The Cryosphere, 7, 1591–1602, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1591-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1591-2013, 2013
Q. Zhang, A. J. Pitman, Y. P. Wang, Y. J. Dai, and P. J. Lawrence
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 333–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-333-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-333-2013, 2013
N. Huneeus, O. Boucher, and F. Chevallier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6555–6573, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6555-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6555-2013, 2013
F. Jégou, G. Berthet, C. Brogniez, J.-B. Renard, P. François, J. M. Haywood, A. Jones, Q. Bourgeois, T. Lurton, F. Auriol, S. Godin-Beekmann, C. Guimbaud, G. Krysztofiak, B. Gaubicher, M. Chartier, L. Clarisse, C. Clerbaux, J. Y. Balois, C. Verwaerde, and D. Daugeron
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 6533–6552, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6533-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6533-2013, 2013
R. Séférian, L. Bopp, D. Swingedouw, and J. Servonnat
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 109–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-109-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-109-2013, 2013
P. Stier, N. A. J. Schutgens, N. Bellouin, H. Bian, O. Boucher, M. Chin, S. Ghan, N. Huneeus, S. Kinne, G. Lin, X. Ma, G. Myhre, J. E. Penner, C. A. Randles, B. Samset, M. Schulz, T. Takemura, F. Yu, H. Yu, and C. Zhou
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3245–3270, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3245-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3245-2013, 2013
A. R. Berg, C. L. Heald, K. E. Huff Hartz, A. G. Hallar, A. J. H. Meddens, J. A. Hicke, J.-F. Lamarque, and S. Tilmes
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3149–3161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3149-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-3149-2013, 2013
M. T. Woodhouse, G. W. Mann, K. S. Carslaw, and O. Boucher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2723–2733, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2723-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2723-2013, 2013
N. Bellouin, J. Quaas, J.-J. Morcrette, and O. Boucher
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2045–2062, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2045-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2045-2013, 2013
P. J. Young, A. T. Archibald, K. W. Bowman, J.-F. Lamarque, V. Naik, D. S. Stevenson, S. Tilmes, A. Voulgarakis, O. Wild, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. B. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2063–2090, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, 2013
L. Zhao, L. Tian, T. Zwinger, R. Ding, J. Zong, Q. Ye, and J. C. Moore
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-7-145-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-7-145-2013, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
Z. Zhang and J. C. Moore
Ann. Geophys., 30, 1743–1750, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-30-1743-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-30-1743-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Management of the Earth system: engineering responses to climate change
The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty
Exploration of a novel geoengineering solution: lighting up tropical forests at night
How large is the design space for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering?
The response of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling under different aerosol-based radiation management geoengineering
Expanding the design space of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering to include precipitation-based objectives and explore trade-offs
Climate engineering to mitigate the projected 21st-century terrestrial drying of the Americas: a direct comparison of carbon capture and sulfur injection
Complementing CO2 emission reduction by solar radiation management might strongly enhance future welfare
Assessing carbon dioxide removal through global and regional ocean alkalinization under high and low emission pathways
Climate engineering by mimicking natural dust climate control: the iron salt aerosol method
Geoengineering as a design problem
Delaying future sea-level rise by storing water in Antarctica
Climate response to imposed solar radiation reductions in high latitudes
Solar irradiance reduction to counteract radiative forcing from a quadrupling of CO2: climate responses simulated by four earth system models
Susanne Baur, Alexander Nauels, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 367–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-367-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-367-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Solar radiation modification (SRM) artificially cools global temperature without acting on the cause of climate change. This study looks at how long SRM would have to be deployed to limit warming to 1.5 °C and how this timeframe is affected by different levels of mitigation, negative emissions and climate uncertainty. None of the three factors alone can guarantee short SRM deployment. Due to their uncertainty at the time of SRM initialization, any deployment risks may be several centuries long.
Xueyuan Gao, Shunlin Liang, Dongdong Wang, Yan Li, Bin He, and Aolin Jia
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 219–230, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-219-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-219-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical experiments with a coupled Earth system model show that large-scale nighttime artificial lighting in tropical forests will significantly increase carbon sink, local temperature, and precipitation, and it requires less energy than direct air carbon capture for capturing 1 t of carbon, suggesting that it could be a powerful climate mitigation option. Side effects include CO2 outgassing after the termination of the nighttime lighting and impacts on local wildlife.
Yan Zhang, Douglas G. MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 201–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Adding SO2 to the stratosphere could temporarily cool the planet by reflecting more sunlight back to space. However, adding SO2 at different latitude(s) and season(s) leads to significant differences in regional surface climate. This study shows that, to cool the planet by 1–1.5 °C, there are likely six to eight choices of injection latitude(s) and season(s) that lead to meaningfully different distributions of climate impacts.
Hanna Lee, Helene Muri, Altug Ekici, Jerry Tjiputra, and Jörg Schwinger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 313–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-313-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-313-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We assess how three different geoengineering methods using aerosol affect land ecosystem carbon storage. Changes in temperature and precipitation play a large role in vegetation carbon uptake and storage, but our results show that increased levels of CO2 also play a considerable role. We show that there are unforeseen regional consequences under geoengineering applications, and these consequences should be taken into account in future climate policies before implementing them.
Walker Lee, Douglas MacMartin, Daniele Visioni, and Ben Kravitz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1051–1072, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1051-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1051-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The injection of aerosols into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight could reduce global warming, but this type of
geoengineeringwould also impact other variables like precipitation and sea ice. In this study, we model various climate impacts of geoengineering on a 3-D graph to show how trying to meet one climate goal will affect other variables. We also present two computer simulations which validate our model and show that geoengineering could regulate precipitation as well as temperature.
Yangyang Xu, Lei Lin, Simone Tilmes, Katherine Dagon, Lili Xia, Chenrui Diao, Wei Cheng, Zhili Wang, Isla Simpson, and Lorna Burnell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 673–695, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-673-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Two geoengineering schemes to mitigate global warming, (a) capturing atmospheric CO2 and (b) injecting stratospheric sulfur gas, are compared. Based on two sets of large-ensemble model experiments, we show that sulfur injection will effectively mitigate projected terrestrial drying over the Americas, and the mitigation benefit will emerge more quickly than with carbon capture. Innovative means of sulfur injection should continue to be explored as one potential low-cost climate solution.
Koen G. Helwegen, Claudia E. Wieners, Jason E. Frank, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 453–472, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-453-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-453-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We use the climate-economy model DICE to perform a cost–benefit analysis of sulfate geoengineering, i.e. producing a thin artificial sulfate haze in the higher atmosphere to reflect some sunlight and cool the Earth.
We find that geoengineering can increase future welfare by reducing global warming, and should be taken seriously as a policy option, but it can only complement, not replace, carbon emission reduction. The best policy is to combine CO2 emission reduction with modest geoengineering.
Andrew Lenton, Richard J. Matear, David P. Keller, Vivian Scott, and Naomi E. Vaughan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 339–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-339-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-339-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) is capable of reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and surface warming while also addressing ocean acidification. We simulate the Earth system response to a fixed addition of AOA under low and high emissions. We explore the regional and global response to AOA. A key finding is that AOA is much more effective at reducing warming and ocean acidification under low emissions, despite lower carbon uptake.
Franz Dietrich Oeste, Renaud de Richter, Tingzhen Ming, and Sylvain Caillol
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1-2017, 2017
Ben Kravitz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Hailong Wang, and Philip J. Rasch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 469–497, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-469-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-469-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Most simulations of solar geoengineering prescribe a particular strategy and evaluate its modeled effects. Here we first choose example climate objectives and then design a strategy to meet those objectives in climate models. We show that certain objectives can be met simultaneously even in the presence of uncertainty, and the strategy for meeting those objectives can be ported to other models. This is part of a broader illustration of how uncertainties in solar geoengineering can be managed.
K. Frieler, M. Mengel, and A. Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 203–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-203-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-203-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Sea level will continue to rise for centuries. We investigate the option of delaying sea-level rise by pumping ocean water onto Antarctica. Due to wave propagation ice is discharged much faster back into the ocean than expected from pure advection. A millennium-scale storage of > 80 % of the additional ice requires a distance of > 700 km from the coastline. The pumping energy required to elevate ocean water to mitigate a sea-level rise of 3 mm yr−1 exceeds 7 % of current global primary energy supply.
M. C. MacCracken, H.-J. Shin, K. Caldeira, and G. A. Ban-Weiss
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 301–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-301-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-301-2013, 2013
H. Schmidt, K. Alterskjær, D. Bou Karam, O. Boucher, A. Jones, J. E. Kristjánsson, U. Niemeier, M. Schulz, A. Aaheim, F. Benduhn, M. Lawrence, and C. Timmreck
Earth Syst. Dynam., 3, 63–78, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-63-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-63-2012, 2012
Cited articles
Aalto, J., Karjalainen, O., Hjort, J., and Luoto, M.: Statistical
Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and
Active Layer Thickness, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 4889–4898,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078007, 2018.
Andresen, C. G., Lawrence, D. M., Wilson, C. J., McGuire, A. D., Koven, C.,
Schaefer, K., Jafarov, E., Peng, S., Chen, X., Gouttevin, I., Burke, E.,
Chadburn, S., Ji, D., Chen, G., Hayes, D., and Zhang, W.: Soil moisture and
hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison,
The Cryosphere, 14, 445–459, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020, 2020.
Bala, G., Caldeira, K., and Nemani, R.: Fast versus slow response in climate
change: implications for the global hydrological cycle, Clim. Dynam., 35,
423–434, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0583-y, 2010.
Banerjee, A., Butler, A. H., Polvani, L. M., Robock, A., Simpson, I. R., and
Sun, L.: Robust winter warming over Eurasia under stratospheric sulfate
geoengineering – the role of stratospheric dynamics, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21,
6985–6997, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6985-2021, 2021.
Beer, C.: Permafrost sub-grid heterogeneity of soil properties key for 3-D
soil processes and future climate projections, Front. Earth Sci., 4, 81,
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2016.00081, 2016.
Biskaborn, B. K., Smith, S. L., Noetzli, J., Matthes, H., Vieira, G.,
Streletskiy, D. A., Schoeneich, P., Romanovsky, V. E., Lewkowicz, A. G.,
Abramov, A., Allard, M., Boike, J., Cable, W. L., Christiansen, H. H.,
Delaloye, R., Diekmann, B., Drozdov, D., Etzelmüller, B., Grosse, G.,
Guglielmin, M., Ingeman-Nielsen, T., Isaksen, K., Ishikawa, M., Johansson,
M., Johannsson, H., Joo, A., Kaverin, D., Kholodov, A., Konstantinov, P.,
Kröger, T., Lambiel, C., Lanckman, J., Luo, D., Malkova, G., Meiklejohn,
I., Moskalenko, N., Oliva, M., Phillips, M., Ramos, M., Sannel, A. B. K.,
Sergeev, D., Seybold, C., Skryabin, P., Vasiliev, A., Wu, Q., Yoshikawa, K.,
Zheleznyak, M., and Lantuit, H.: Permafrost is warming at a global scale,
Nat. Commun., 10, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-08240-4, 2019.
Boucher, O., Servonnat, J., Albright, A. L., Aumont, O., Balkanski, Y.,
Bastrikov, V., Bekki, S., Bonnet, R., Bony, S., and Bopp, L.: Presentation
and evaluation of the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy.,
12, 2019MS002010, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002010, 2020.
Brown, J., Ferrians Jr, O. J., Heginbottom, J. A., and Melnikov, E. S.:
Circum-arctic map of permafrost and ground ice conditions Washington, DC,
U.S. Geological Survey in Cooperation with the Circum-Pacific Council for
Energy and Mineral Resources, Circum-Pacific Map Series CP-45, scale
Burke, E. J., Ekici, A., Huang, Y., Chadburn, S. E., Huntingford, C., Ciais,
P., Friedlingstein, P., Peng, S., and Krinner, G.: Quantifying uncertainties
of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks, Biogeosciences, 14, 3051–3066,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017, 2017.
Burke, E. J., Zhang, Y., and Krinner, G.: Evaluating permafrost physics in
the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their
sensitivity to climate change, The Cryosphere, 14, 3155–3174,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020, 2020.
Burn, C. R. and Zhang, Y.: Sensitivity of active-layer development to
winter conditions north of treeline, Mackenzie delta area, western Arctic
coast, in: Proceedings of the 6th Canadian Permafrost Conference, The 63rd
Canadian Geotechnical Conference, Calgary, Alberta, 12–16 September 2010, 1458–1465,
http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/cpc/CPC6-1458.pdf (last access: 21 January 2023), 2010.
Cao, L.: The Effects of Solar Radiation Management on the Carbon Cycle,
Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 4, 41–50,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0088-z, 2018.
Cao, L. and Jiang, J.: Simulated Effect of Carbon Cycle Feedback on Climate
Response to Solar Geoengineering, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 12–484,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076546, 2017.
Chadburn, S. E., Burke, E. J., Cox, P. M., Friedlingstein, P., Hugelius, G.,
and Westermann, S.: An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a
function of global warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 340–344,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3262, 2017.
Chen, Y., Liu, A., and Moore, J. C.: Mitigation of Arctic permafrost carbon
loss through stratospheric aerosol geoengineering, Nat. Commun., 11, 1–10,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16357-8, 2020.
Crowther, T. W. and Bradford, M. A.: Thermal acclimation in widespread
heterotrophic soil microbes, Ecol. Lett., 16, 469–477,
https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12069, 2013.
Crutzen, P. J.: Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A
Contribution to Resolve a Policy Dilemma?, Climatic Change, 77, 211–219,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9101-y, 2006.
Dankers, R., Burke, E. J., and Price, J.: Simulation of permafrost and
seasonal thaw depth in the JULES land surface scheme, The Cryosphere, 5,
773–790, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-5-773-2011, 2011.
Decharme, B., Delire, C., Minvielle, M., Colin, J., Vergnes, J. P., Alias,
A., Saint Martin, D., Séférian, R., Sénési, S., and
Voldoire, A.: Recent Changes in the ISBA-CTRIP Land Surface System for Use
in the CNRM-CM6 Climate Model and in Global Off-Line Hydrological
Applications, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 1207–1252,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001545, 2019.
Delire, C., Séférian, R., Decharme, B., Alkama, R., Calvet, J. C.,
Carrer, D., Gibelin, A. L., Joetzjer, E., Morel, X., Rocher, M., and Tzanos,
D.: The Global Land Carbon Cycle Simulated With ISBA-CTRIP: Improvements
Over the Last Decade, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 12, e2019MS001886,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001886, 2020.
Duan, L., Cao, L., Bala, G., and Caldeira, K.: A Model-Based Investigation of Terrestrial Plant Carbon Uptake Response to Four Radiation Modification Approaches, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD031883, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031883, 2020.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R.
J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9,
1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
Fawzy, S., Osman, A. I., Doran, J., and Rooney, D. W.: Strategies for
mitigation of climate change: a review, Environ. Chem. Lett., 18, 2069–2094,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10311-020-01059-w, 2020.
Ferraro, A. J., Highwood, E. J., and Charlton-Perez, A. J.: Weakened
tropical circulation and reduced precipitation in response to
geoengineering, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 014001,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/1/014001, 2014.
Field, C. B. and Raupach, M. R. (Eds.): The global carbon cycle:
integrating humans, climate, and the natural world, Island Press, ISBN: 1559635266, 2004.
Gasser, T., Kechiar, M., Ciais, P., Burke, E. J., Kleinen, T., Zhu, D.,
Huang, Y., Ekici, A., and Obersteiner, M.: Path-dependent reductions in
CO2 emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release, Nat. Geosci.,
11, 830–835, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0227-0, 2018.
Glienke, S., Irvine, P. J., and Lawrence, M. G.: The impact of geoengineering on vegetation in experiment G1 of the GeoMIP, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 10196–10213, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024202, 2015.
Govindasamy, B., Thompson, S., Duffy, P. B., Caldeira, K., and Delire, C.: Impact of geoengineering schemes on the terrestrial biosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 11–18, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015911, 2002.
Gruber, S.: Derivation and analysis of a high-resolution estimate of global
permafrost zonation, The Cryosphere, 6, 221–233,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-221-2012, 2012.
Hausfather, Z., Marvel, K., Schmidt, G. A., Nielsen-Gammon, J. W., and
Zelinka, M.: Climate simulations: recognize the “hot model” problem, Nature,
605, 26–29, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-01192-2, 2022.
Hengl, T., de Jesus, J. M., MacMillan, R. A., Batjes, N. H., Heuvelink, G.
B., Ribeiro, E., Samuel-Rosa, A., Kempen, B., Leenaars, J. G., Walsh, M. G.,
and Gonzalez, M. R.: SoilGrids1km – global soil information based on
automated mapping, PLoS One, 9, e105992,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0105992, 2014.
Henry, M. and Merlis, T. M.: Forcing Dependence of Atmospheric Lapse Rate
Changes Dominates Residual Polar Warming in Solar Radiation Management
Climate Scenarios, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL087929,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087929, 2020.
Huang, Y., Guenet, B., Wang, Y. L., and Ciais, P.: Global Simulation and
Evaluation of Soil Organic Matter and Microbial Carbon and Nitrogen Stocks
Using the Microbial Decomposition Model ORCHIMIC v2.0, Global Biogeochem.
Cy., 35, e2020GB006836, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006836, 2021.
Hugelius, G., Bockheim, J. G., Camill, P., Elberling, B., Grosse, G., Harden, J. W., Johnson, K., Jorgenson, T., Koven, C. D., Kuhry, P., Michaelson, G., Mishra, U., Palmtag, J., Ping, C.-L., O'Donnell, J., Schirrmeister, L., Schuur, E. A. G., Sheng, Y., Smith, L. C., Strauss, J., and Yu, Z.: A new data set for estimating organic carbon storage to 3 m depth in soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 393–402, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-393-2013, 2013.
Hugelius, G., Strauss, J., Zubrzycki, S., Harden, J. W., Schuur, E. A. G.,
Ping, C. L., Schirrmeister, L., Grosse, G., Michaelson, G. J., Koven, C. D.,
O'Donnell, J. A., Elberling, B., Mishra, U., Camill, P., Yu, Z., Palmtag,
J., and Kuhry, P.: Estimated stocks of circumpolar permafrost carbon with
quantified uncertainty ranges and identified data gaps, Biogeosciences, 11,
6573–6593, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6573-2014, 2014.
Ito, A., Hajima, T., Lawrence, D. M., Brovkin, V., Delire, C., Guenet, B.,
Jones, C. D., Malyshev, S., Materia, S., McDermid, S. P., Peano, D.,
Pongratz, J., Robertson, E., Shevliakova, E., Vuichard, N., Warlind, D.,
Wiltshire, A., and Ziehn, T.: Soil carbon sequestration simulated in
CMIP6-LUMIP models: implications for climatic mitigation, Environ. Res.
Lett., 15, 124061, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc912, 2020.
Jiang, J., Cao, L., MacMartin, D. G., Simpson, I. R., Kravitz, B., Cheng,
W., Visioni, D., Tilmes, S., Richter, J. H., and Mills, M. J.: Stratospheric
Sulfate Aerosol Geoengineering Could Alter the High-Latitude Seasonal Cycle,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 14153–14163, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085758,
2019.
Jones, A., Haywood, J. M., Jones, A. C., Tilmes, S., Kravitz, B., and
Robock, A.: North Atlantic Oscillation response in GeoMIP experiments
G6solar and G6sulfur: why detailed modelling is needed for understanding
regional implications of solar radiation management, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21,
1287–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1287-2021, 2021.
Keith, D. W., Wagner, G., and Zabel, C. L.: Solar geoengineering reduces
atmospheric carbon burden, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 617–619,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3376, 2017.
Kleinen, T. and Brovkin, V.: Pathway-dependent fate of permafrost region
carbon, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 094001,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad824, 2018.
Koven, C. D., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Khvorostyanov, D., Krinner, G.,
and Tarnocai, C.: On the formation of high-latitude soil carbon stocks:
Effects of cryoturbation and insulation by organic matter in a land surface
model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21501,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040150, 2009.
Koven, C. D., Ringeval, B., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Cadule, P.,
Khvorostyanov, D., Krinner, G., and Tarnocai, C.: Permafrost carbon-climate
feedbacks accelerate global warming, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108,
14769–14774, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1103910108, 2011.
Koven, C. D., Lawrence, D. M., and Riley, W. J.: Permafrost carbon–climate
feedback is sensitive to
deep soil carbon decomposability but not deep soil nitrogen dynamics,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 3752–3757,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1415123112, 2015.
Koven, C. D., Hugelius, G., Lawrence, D. M., and Wieder, W. R.: Higher
climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon in cold than warm
climates, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 817–822,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3421, 2017.
Krause, A., Kloster, S., Wilkenskjeld, S., and Paeth, H.: The sensitivity of
global wildfires to simulated past, present, and future lightning frequency,
J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 119, 312–322,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JG002502, 2014.
Kravitz, B., Robock, A., Boucher, O., Schmidt, H., Taylor, K. E.,
Stenchikov, G., and Schulz, M.: The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison
Project (GeoMIP), Atmos. Sci. Lett., 12, 162-167,
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.316, 2011.
Kravitz, B., Robock, A., Forster, P. M., Haywood, J. M., Lawrence, M. G.,
and Schmidt, H.: An overview of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison
Project (GeoMIP), J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118,
13103–13107, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020569, 2013a.
Kravitz, B., Rasch, P. J., Forster, P. M., Andrews, T., Cole, J. N. S.,
Irvine, P. J., Ji, D., Kristjánsson, J. E., Moore, J. C., Muri, H.,
Niemeier, U., Robock, A., Singh, B., Tilmes, S., Watanabe, S., and Yoon, J.:
An energetic perspective on hydrological cycle changes in the Geoengineering
Model Intercomparison Project, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
118, 13087–13102, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020502, 2013b.
Kravitz, B., Robock, A., Tilmes, S., Boucher, O., English, J. M., Irvine, P.
J., Jones, A., Lawrence, M. G., MacCracken, M., Muri, H., Moore, J. C.,
Niemeier, U., Phipps, S. J., Sillmann, J., Storelvmo, T., Wang, H., and
Watanabe, S.: The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6
(GeoMIP6): simulation design and preliminary results, Geosci. Model Dev., 8,
3379–3392, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-3379-2015, 2015.
Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G., Wang, H., and Rasch, P. J.: Geoengineering as
a design problem, Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 469–497,
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-469-2016, 2016.
Krinner, G., Viovy, N., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Ogée, J., Polcher,
J., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., Sitch, S., and Prentice, I. C.: A dynamic
global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere
system, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 19, GB1015,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GB002199, 2005.
Lauritzen, P. H., Nair, R. D., Herrington, A. R., Callaghan, P., Goldhaber,
S., Dennis, J. M., Bacmeister, J. T., Eaton, B. E., Zarzycki, C. M., Taylor,
M. A., Ullrich, P. A., Dubos, T., Gettelman, A., Neale, R. B., Dobbins, B.,
Reed, K. A., Hannay, C., Medeiros, B., Benedict, J. J., and Tribbia, J. J.:
NCAR Release of CAM-SE in CESM2.0: A Reformulation of the Spectral Element
Dynamical Core in Dry-Mass Vertical Coordinates With Comprehensive Treatment
of Condensates and Energy, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 10, 1537–1570,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2017MS001257, 2018.
Lawrence, D. M. and Slater, A. G.: A projection of severe near-surface
permafrost degradation during the 21st century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L24401,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025080, 2005.
Lawrence, D. M., Slater, A. G., and Swenson, S. C.: Simulation of
Present-Day and Future Permafrost and Seasonally Frozen Ground Conditions in
CCSM4, J. Clim., 25, 2207–2225, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00334.1,
2012.
Lawrence, D. M., Koven, C. D., Swenson, S. C., Riley, W. J., and Slater, A. G.: Permafrost thaw and resulting soil moisture changes regulate projected high-latitude CO2 and CH4 emissions, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 94011, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094011, 2015.
Lawrence, D. M., Fisher, R., Koven, C. D., Oleson, K., Swenson, S., Vertenstein, M., Andre, B., Bonan, G., Ghimire, B., van Kampenhout, L., Kennedy, D., Kluzek, E., Knox, R., Lawrence, P., Li, F., Li, H., Lombardozzi, D., Lu, Y., Perket, J., Riley, W., Sacks, W., Shi, M., Wieder, W, Xu, C., Ali, A., Badger, A., Bisht, G., Broxtom, P., Brunke, M., Buzan, J., Clark, M., Craig, T., Dahlin, K., Drewniak, B., Emmons, L., Fisher, J., Flanner, M., Gentine, P., Lenaerts, J., Levis, S., Leung, L. R., Lipscomb, W., Pelletier, J., Ricciuto, D. M., Sanderson, B., Shuman, J., Slater, A., Subin, Z., Tang, J., Tawfik, A., Thomas, Q., Tilmes, S., Vitt, F., and Zeng, X.: Technical Description of version 5.0 of the Community Land Model (CLM), http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/cesm2/land/CLM50_Tech_Note.pdf, 2018 (last access: 21 January 2023).
Lawrence, D. M., Fisher, R. A., Koven, C. D., Oleson, K. W., Swenson, S. C.,
Bonan, G., Collier, N., Ghimire, B., Kampenhout, L., Kennedy, D., Kluzek,
E., Lawrence, P. J., Li, F., Li, H., Lombardozzi, D., Riley, W. J., Sacks,
W. J., Shi, M., Vertenstein, M., Wieder, W. R., Xu, C., Ali, A. A., Badger,
A. M., Bisht, G., Broeke, M., Brunke, M. A., Burns, S. P., Buzan, J., Clark,
M., Craig, A., Dahlin, K., Drewniak, B., Fisher, J. B., Flanner, M., Fox, A.
M., Gentine, P., Hoffman, F., Keppel Aleks, G., Knox, R., Kumar, S.,
Lenaerts, J., Leung, L. R., Lipscomb, W. H., Lu, Y., Pandey, A., Pelletier,
J. D., Perket, J., Randerson, J. T., Ricciuto, D. M., Sanderson, B. M.,
Slater, A., Subin, Z. M., Tang, J., Thomas, R. Q., Val Martin, M., and Zeng,
X.: The Community Land Model Version 5: Description of New Features,
Benchmarking, and Impact of Forcing Uncertainty, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy.,
11, 4245–4287, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001583, 2019.
Lee, H., Ekici, A., Tjiputra, J., Muri, H., Chadburn, S. E., Lawrence, D.
M., and Schwinger, J.: The Response of Permafrost and High-Latitude
Ecosystems Under Large-Scale Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Its
Termination, Earth's Future, 7, 605–614,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001146, 2019.
Lee, H., Muri, H., Ekici, A., Tjiputra, J., and Schwinger, J.: The response
of terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling under different aerosol-based
radiation management geoengineering, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 313–326,
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-313-2021, 2021.
Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf,
S., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 1786–1793,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105, 2008.
MacDougall, A. H. and Knutti, R.: Projecting the release of carbon from
permafrost soils using a perturbed parameter ensemble modelling approach,
Biogeosciences, 13, 2123–2136, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2123-2016,
2016.
MacDougall, A. H., Avis, C. A., and Weaver, A. J.: Significant contribution
to climate warming from the permafrost carbon feedback, Nat. Geosci., 5,
719–721, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1573, 2012.
Mauritsen, T., Bader, J., Becker, T., Behrens, J., Bittner, M., Brokopf, R.,
Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fast, I., Fiedler, S.,
Fläschner, D., Gayler, V., Giorgetta, M., Goll, D. S., Haak, H.,
Hagemann, S., Hedemann, C., Hohenegger, C., Ilyina, T., Jahns, T.,
Jimenéz De La Cuesta, D., Jungclaus, J., Kleinen, T., Kloster, S.,
Kracher, D., Kinne, S., Kleberg, D., Lasslop, G., Kornblueh, L., Marotzke,
J., Matei, D., Meraner, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Modali, K., Möbis, B.,
Müller, W. A., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nam, C. C. W., Notz, D., Nyawira, S.
S., Paulsen, H., Peters, K., Pincus, R., Pohlmann, H., Pongratz, J., Popp,
M., Raddatz, T. J., Rast, S., Redler, R., Reick, C. H., Rohrschneider, T.,
Schemann, V., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Schulzweida, U., Six, K. D., Stein,
L., Stemmler, I., Stevens, B., Storch, J. S., Tian, F., Voigt, A., Vrese,
P., Wieners, K. H., Wilkenskjeld, S., Winkler, A., and Roeckner, E.:
Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and
Its Response to Increasing CO2, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 998–1038,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001400, 2019.
McGuire, A. D., Koven, C., Lawrence, D. M., Clein, J. S., Xia, J., Beer, C.,
Burke, E., Chen, G., Chen, X., Delire, C., Jafarov, E., MacDougall, A. H.,
Marchenko, S., Nicolsky, D., Peng, S., Rinke, A., Saito, K., Zhang, W.,
Alkama, R., Bohn, T. J., Ciais, P., Decharme, B., Ekici, A., Gouttevin, I.,
Hajima, T., Hayes, D. J., Ji, D., Krinner, G., Lettenmaier, D. P., Luo, Y.,
Miller, P. A., Moore, J. C., Romanovsky, V., Schädel, C., Schaefer, K.,
Schuur, E. A. G., Smith, B., Sueyoshi, T., and Zhuang, Q.: Variability in
the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in
the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 30,
1015–1037, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005405, 2016.
McGuire, A. D., Lawrence, D. M., Koven, C., Clein, J. S., Burke, E., Chen,
G., Jafarov, E., MacDougall, A. H., Marchenko, S., Nicolsky, D., Peng, S.,
Rinke, A., Ciais, P., Gouttevin, I., Hayes, D. J., Ji, D., Krinner, G.,
Moore, J. C., Romanovsky, V., Schädel, C., Schaefer, K., Schuur, E. A.
G., and Zhuang, Q.: Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the
northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 3882–3887,
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1719903115, 2018.
Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Eyring, V., Flato, G., Lamarque, J. F.,
Stouffer, R. J., Taylor, K. E., and Schlund, M.: Context for interpreting
equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the
CMIP6 Earth system models, Sci. Adv., 6, eaba1981,
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba1981, 2020.
Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E.,
Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J.
G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N.,
Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S., Smith, S. J., van den Berg, M.,
Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., and Wang, R. H. J.: The shared
socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their
extensions to 2500, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3571–3605,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020, 2020.
Melnikova, I., Boucher, O., Cadule, P., Ciais, P., Gasser, T., Quilcaille,
Y., Shiogama, H., Tachiiri, K., Yokohata, T., and Tanaka, K.: Carbon Cycle
Response to Temperature Overshoot Beyond 2 ∘C: An Analysis of
CMIP6 Models, Earth's Future, 9, e2020EF001967,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001967, 2021.
Muri, H., Niemeier, U., and Kristjánsson, J. E.: Tropical rainforest
response to marine sky brightening climate engineering, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
42, 2951–2960, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063363, 2015.
Muri, H., Tjiputra, J., Otterå, O. H., Adakudlu, M., Lauvset, S. K.,
Grini, A., Schulz, M., Niemeier, U., and Kristjánsson, J. E.: Climate
Response to Aerosol Geoengineering: A Multimethod Comparison, J. Clim.,
31, 6319–6340, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0620.1, 2018.
NCSCDv2: Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database version 2, Bolin Centre Database, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University [data set],
https://bolin.su.se/data/ncscd/, last access: 12 January, 2022.
Niemeier, U., Schmidt, H., Alterskjaer, K., and Kristjánsson, J. E.:
Solar irradiance reduction via climate engineering: Impact of different
techniques on the energy balance and the hydrological cycle, J.
Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 11905–11917,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020445, 2013.
Obu, J., Westermann, S., Bartsch, A., Berdnikov, N., Christiansen, H. H.,
Dashtseren, A., Delaloye, R., Elberling, B., Etzelmüller, B., Kholodov,
A., Khomutov, A., Kääb, A., Leibman, M. O., Lewkowicz, A. G., Panda,
S. K., Romanovsky, V., Way, R. G., Westergaard-Nielsen, A., Wu, T., Yamkhin,
J., and Zou, D.: Northern Hemisphere permafrost map based on TTOP modelling
for 2000–2016 at 1 km2 scale, Earth-Sci. Rev., 193, 299–316,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.04.023, 2019.
Peng, S., Ciais, P., Krinner, G., Wang, T., Gouttevin, I., McGuire, A. D.,
Lawrence, D., Burke, E., Chen, X., Decharme, B., Koven, C., MacDougall, A.,
Rinke, A., Saito, K., Zhang, W., Alkama, R., Bohn, T. J., Delire, C.,
Hajima, T., Ji, D., Lettenmaier, D. P., Miller, P. A., Moore, J. C., Smith,
B., and Sueyoshi, T.: Simulated high-latitude soil thermal dynamics during
the past 4 decades, The Cryosphere, 10, 179–192,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-179-2016, 2016.
Plazzotta, M., Séférian, R., and Douville, H.: Impact of Solar
Radiation Modification on Allowable CO2 Emissions: What Can We Learn From
Multimodel Simulations?, Earth's Future, 7, 664–676,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001165, 2019.
Reick, C. H., Gayler, V., Goll, D., Hagemann, S., Heidkamp, M., Nabel, J. E.
M. S., Raddatz, T., Roeckner, E., Schnur, R., and Wilkenskjeld, S.: JSBACH 3
– The land component of the MPI Earth System Model: documentation of version
3.2, Hamburg, MPI für Meteorologie, 287 pp.,
https://doi.org/10.17617/2.3279802, 2021.
Russotto, R. D. and Ackerman, T. P.: Energy transport, polar amplification,
and ITCZ shifts in the GeoMIP G1 ensemble, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18,
2287–2305, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2287-2018, 2018.
Schmidt, H., Alterskjær, K., Bou Karam, D., Boucher, O., Jones, A.,
Kristjánsson, J. E., Niemeier, U., Schulz, M., Aaheim, A., Benduhn, F.,
Lawrence, M., and Timmreck, C.: Solar irradiance reduction to counteract
radiative forcing from a quadrupling of CO2: climate responses
simulated by four earth system models, Earth Syst. Dynam., 3, 63–78,
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-63-2012, 2012.
Schneider von Deimling, T., Meinshausen, M., Levermann, A., Huber, V.,
Frieler, K., Lawrence, D. M., and Brovkin, V.: Estimating the near-surface
permafrost-carbon feedback on global warming, Biogeosciences, 9, 649–665,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-649-2012, 2012.
Schuur, E. A. G., Bockheim, J., Canadell, J. G., Euskirchen, E., Field, C.
B., Goryachkin, S. V., Hagemann, S., Kuhry, P., Lafleur, P. M., Lee, H.,
Mazhitova, G., Nelson, F. E., Rinke, A., Romanovsky, V. E., Shiklomanov, N.,
Tarnocai, C., Venevsky, S., Vogel, J. G., and Zimov, S. A.: Vulnerability of
Permafrost Carbon to Climate Change: Implications for the Global Carbon
Cycle, BioScience, 58, 701–714, https://doi.org/10.1641/B580807, 2008.
Schuur, E. A. G., McGuire, A. D., Schädel, C., Grosse, G., Harden, J.
W., Hayes, D. J., Hugelius, G., Koven, C. D., Kuhry, P., Lawrence, D. M.,
Natali, S. M., Olefeldt, D., Romanovsky, V. E., Schaefer, K., Turetsky, M.
R., Treat, C. C., and Vonk, J. E.: Climate change and the permafrost carbon
feedback, Nature, 520, 171–179, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14338, 2015.
Séférian, R., Nabat, P., Michou, M., Saint-Martin, D., Voldoire, A.,
Colin, J., Decharme, B., Delire, C., Berthet, S., Chevallier, M., Senesi,
S., Franchisteguy, L., Vial, J., Mallet, M., Joetzjer, E., Geoffroy, O.,
Gueremy, J. F., Moine, M. P., Msadek, R., Ribes, A., Rocher, M., Roehrig,
R., Salas-y-Melia, D., Sanchez, E., Terray, L., Valcke, S., Waldman, R.,
Aumont, O., Bopp, L., Deshayes, J., Ethe, C., and Madec, G.: Evaluation of
CNRM Earth System Model, CNRM-ESM2-1: Role of Earth System Processes in
Present-Day and Future Climate, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 4182–4227,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001791, 2019.
Sellar, A. A., Jones, C. G., Mulcahy, J. P., Tang, Y., Yool, A., Wiltshire,
A., O'Connor, F. M., Stringer, M., Hill, R., Palmieri, J., Woodward, S.,
Mora, L., Kuhlbrodt, T., Rumbold, S. T., Kelley, D. I., Ellis, R., Johnson,
C. E., Walton, J., Abraham, N. L., Andrews, M. B., Andrews, T., Archibald,
A. T., Berthou, S., Burke, E., Blockley, E., Carslaw, K., Dalvi, M.,
Edwards, J., Folberth, G. A., Gedney, N., Griffiths, P. T., Harper, A. B.,
Hendry, M. A., Hewitt, A. J., Johnson, B., Jones, A., Jones, C. D., Keeble,
J., Liddicoat, S., Morgenstern, O., Parker, R. J., Predoi, V., Robertson,
E., Siahaan, A., Smith, R. S., Swaminathan, R., Woodhouse, M. T., Zeng, G.,
and Zerroukat, M.: UKESM1: Description and Evaluation of the U.K. Earth
System Model, J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy., 11, 4513–4558,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001739, 2019.
Sellers, P. J., Hall, F. G., Kelly, R. D., Black, A., Baldocchi, D., Berry,
J., Ryan, M., Ranson, K. J., Crill, P. M., Lettenmaier, D. P., Margolis, H.,
Cihlar, J., Newcomer, J., Fitzjarrald, D., Jarvis, P. G., Gower, S. T.,
Halliwell, D., Williams, D., Goodison, B., Wickland, D. E., and Guertin, F.
E.: BOREAS in 1997: Experiment overview, scientific results, and future
directions, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 102, 28731–28769,
https://doi.org/10.1029/97JD03300, 1997.
Serreze, M. C. and Barry, R. G.: Processes and impacts of Arctic
amplification: A research synthesis, Glob. Planet. Change, 77, 85–96,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.03.004, 2011.
Shindell, D. T.: Dynamic winter climate response to large tropical volcanic
eruptions since 1600, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D05104,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD004151, 2004.
Shu, S., Jain, A. K., Koven, C. D., and Mishra, U.: Estimation of Permafrost
SOC Stock and Turnover Time Using a Land Surface Model with Vertical
Heterogeneity of Permafrost Soils, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 34,
e2020GB006585, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006585, 2020.
Simpson, I. R., Tilmes, S., Richter, J. H., Kravitz, B., MacMartin, D. G.,
Mills, M. J., Fasullo, J. T., and Pendergrass, A. G.: The Regional
Hydroclimate Response to Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering and the Role
of Stratospheric Heating, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 124,
12587–12616, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031093, 2019.
Slater, A. G. and Lawrence, D. M.: Diagnosing Present and Future Permafrost
from Climate Models, J. Clim., 26, 5608–5623,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00341.1, 2013.
Strauss, J., Schirrmeister, L., Grosse, G., Fortier, D., Hugelius, G.,
Knoblauch, C., Romanovsky, V., Schädel, C., Schneider Von Deimling, T.,
Schuur, E. A. G., Shmelev, D., Ulrich, M., and Veremeeva, A.: Deep Yedoma
permafrost: A synthesis of depositional characteristics and carbon
vulnerability, Earth-Sci. Rev., 172, 75–86,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.07.007, 2017.
Tarnocai, C., Canadell, J. G., Schuur, E. A. G., Kuhry, P., Mazhitova, G.,
and Zimov, S.: Soil organic carbon pools in the northern circumpolar
permafrost region, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB2023,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003327, 2009.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and
the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
Tilmes, S., Fasullo, J., Lamarque, J., Marsh, D. R., Mills, M., Alterskjaer,
K., Muri, H., Kristjánsson, J. E., Boucher, O., Schulz, M., Cole, J. N.
S., Curry, C. L., Jones, A., Haywood, J., Irvine, P. J., Ji, D., Moore, J.
C., Karam, D. B., Kravitz, B., Rasch, P. J., Singh, B., Yoon, J., Niemeier,
U., Schmidt, H., Robock, A., Yang, S., and Watanabe, S.: The hydrological
impact of geoengineering in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project
(GeoMIP), J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 118, 11036–11058,
https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50868, 2013.
Tjiputra, J. F., Grini, A., and Lee, H.: Impact of idealized future
stratospheric aerosol injection on the large-scale ocean and land carbon
cycles, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 121, 2–27,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003045, 2016.
Todd-Brown, K. E. O., Randerson, J. T., Post, W. M., Hoffman, F. M.,
Tarnocai, C., Schuur, E. A. G., and Allison, S. D.: Causes of variation in
soil carbon simulations from CMIP5 Earth system models and comparison with
observations, Biogeosciences, 10, 1717–1736,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1717-2013, 2013.
Todd-Brown, K. E. O., Randerson, J. T., Hopkins, F., Arora, V., Hajima, T.,
Jones, C., Shevliakova, E., Tjiputra, J., Volodin, E., Wu, T., Zhang, Q.,
and Allison, S. D.: Changes in soil organic carbon storage predicted by
Earth system models during the 21st century, Biogeosciences, 11, 2341–2356,
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2341-2014, 2014.
Turetsky, M. R., Benscoter, B., Page, S., Rein, G., van der Werf, G. R., and
Watts, A.: Global vulnerability of peatlands to fire and carbon loss, Nat.
Geosci., 8, 11–14, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2325, 2015.
Varney, R. M., Chadburn, S. E., Friedlingstein, P., Burke, E. J., Koven, C.
D., Hugelius, G., and Cox, P. M.: A spatial emergent constraint on the
sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming, Nat. Commun., 11,
1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19208-8, 2020.
Varney, R. M., Chadburn, S. E., Burke, E. J., and Cox, P. M.: Evaluation of soil carbon simulation in CMIP6 Earth system models, Biogeosciences, 19, 4671–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022, 2022.
Veraverbeke, S., Rogers, B. M., Goulden, M. L., Jandt, R. R., Miller, C. E.,
Wiggins, E. B., and Randerson, J. T.: Lightning as a major driver of recent
large fire years in North American boreal forests, Nat. Clim. Change, 7,
529–534, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3329, 2017.
Visioni, D., MacMartin, D. G., Kravitz, B., Boucher, O., Jones, A., Lurton,
T., Martine, M., Mills, M. J., Nabat, P., Niemeier, U., S Ef Erian, R., and
Tilmes, S.: Identifying the sources of uncertainty in climate model
simulations of solar radiation modification with the G6sulfur and G6solar
Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations, Atmos.
Chem. Phys., 21, 10039–10063, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021,
2021.
WCRP: CMIP6 project data, Earth System Grid Federation [data set], https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/, last access: 12 January 2022.
Wang, W., Rinke, A., Moore, J. C., Ji, D., Cui, X., Peng, S., Lawrence, D.
M., McGuire, A. D., Burke, E. J., Chen, X., Decharme, B., Koven, C.,
MacDougall, A., Saito, K., Zhang, W., Alkama, R., Bohn, T. J., Ciais, P.,
Delire, C., Gouttevin, I., Hajima, T., Krinner, G., Lettenmaier, D. P.,
Miller, P. A., Smith, B., Sueyoshi, T., and Sherstiukov, A. B.: Evaluation
of air–soil temperature relationships simulated by land surfacemodels
during winter across the permafrost region, The Cryosphere, 10, 1721–1737,
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016, 2016.
Wyser, K., van Noije, T., Yang, S., von Hardenberg, J., O'Donnell, D., and
Döscher, R.: On the increased climate sensitivity in the EC-Earth model
from CMIP5 to CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3465–3474,
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3465-2020, 2020.
Xia, L., Robock, A., Tilmes, S., and Neely III, R. R.: Stratospheric sulfate
geoengineering could enhance the terrestrial photosynthesis rate, Atmos.
Chem. Phys., 16, 1479–1489, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-1479-2016, 2016.
Yu, X., Moore, J. C., Cui, X., Rinke, A., Ji, D., Kravitz, B., and Yoon, J.:
Impacts, effectiveness and regional inequalities of the GeoMIP G1 to G4
solar radiation management scenarios, Global Planet. Change, 129, 10–22,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.02.010, 2015.
Zelinka, M. D., Myers, T. A., McCoy, D. T., Po Chedley, S., Caldwell, P. M.,
Ceppi, P., Klein, S. A., and Taylor, K. E.: Causes of Higher Climate
Sensitivity in CMIP6 Models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL085782,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085782, 2020.
Zhang, T., Heginbottom, J. A., Barry, R. G., and Brown, J.: Further
statistics on the distribution of permafrost and ground ice in the Northern
Hemisphere, Polit. Geography, 24, 126–131,
https://doi.org/10.1080/10889370009377692, 2000.
Zhang, Z., Moore, J. C., Huisingh, D., and Zhao, Y.: Review of
geoengineering approaches to mitigating climate change, J. Clean. Prod.,
103, 898–907, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.09.076, 2015.
Zhu, D., Peng, S., Ciais, P., Zech, R., Krinner, G., Zimov, S., and Grosse,
G.: Simulating soil organic carbon in yedoma deposits during the Last
Glacial Maximum in a land surface model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43,
5133–5142, 2016.
Short summary
Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a way of counteracting the warming effects of increasing greenhouse gases by reflecting solar radiation. This work shows that solar geoengineering can slow down the northern-high-latitude permafrost degradation but cannot preserve the permafrost ecosystem as that under a climate of the same warming level without solar geoengineering.
Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a way of counteracting the warming effects of...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint