Articles | Volume 7, issue 4
Research article
17 Nov 2016
Research article |  | 17 Nov 2016

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

Kerstin Engström, Stefan Olin, Mark D. A. Rounsevell, Sara Brogaard, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Peter Alexander, Dave Murray-Rust, and Almut Arneth

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Cited articles

Ahlström, A., Smith, B., Lindström, J., Rummukainen, M., and Uvo, C. B.: GCM characteristics explain the majority of uncertainty in projected 21st century terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance, Biogeosciences, 10, 1517–1528,, 2013.
Alexander, P., Rounsevell, M. D. A., Dislich, C., Dodson, J. R., Engström, K., and Moran, D.: Drivers for global agricultural land use change: The nexus of diet, population, yield and bioenergy, Global Environ. Chang., 35, 138–147, 2015.
Amiro, B. D., MacPherson, J. I., and Desjardins, R. L.: BOREAS flight measurements of forest-fire effects on carbon dioxide and energy fluxes, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 96, 199–208, 1999.
Brown, C., Brown, E., Murray-Rust, D., Cojocaru, G., Savin, C., and Rounsevell, M.: Analysing uncertainties in climate change impact assessment across sectors and scenarios, Climatic Change, 128, 293–306, 2014.
Short summary
The development of global cropland in the future depends on how many people there will be, how much meat and milk we will eat, how much food we will waste and how well farms will be managed. Uncertainties in these factors mean that global cropland could decrease from today's 1500 Mha to only 893 Mha in 2100, which would free land for biofuel production. However, if population rises towards 12 billion and global yields remain low, global cropland could also increase up to 2380 Mha in 2100.
Final-revised paper