Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Brogaard, Sara; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016

Articles | Volume 7, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 7, issue 4

Research article

|

17 Nov 2016

Research article |

| 17 Nov 2016

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

Kerstin Engström, Stefan Olin, Mark D. A. Rounsevell, Sara Brogaard, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Peter Alexander, Dave Murray-Rust, and Almut Arneth

Data sets

PLUM global land use v1.2 S. Olin and K. Engström https://doi.org/10.18161/plum.201610

Short summary

The development of global cropland in the future depends on how many people there will be, how much meat and milk we will eat, how much food we will waste and how well farms will be managed. Uncertainties in these factors mean that global cropland could decrease from today's 1500 Mha to only 893 Mha in 2100, which would free land for biofuel production. However, if population rises towards 12 billion and global yields remain low, global cropland could also increase up to 2380 Mha in 2100.