Articles | Volume 7, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016
Research article
 | 
17 Nov 2016
Research article |  | 17 Nov 2016

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

Kerstin Engström, Stefan Olin, Mark D. A. Rounsevell, Sara Brogaard, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Peter Alexander, Dave Murray-Rust, and Almut Arneth

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Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (14 Jul 2016) by James Dyke
AR by Kerstin Engström on behalf of the Authors (14 Jul 2016)  Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (19 Jul 2016) by James Dyke
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (28 Jul 2016)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (03 Aug 2016)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by Editor) (11 Aug 2016) by James Dyke
AR by Kerstin Engström on behalf of the Authors (16 Aug 2016)
ED: Publish as is (06 Sep 2016) by James Dyke
AR by Kerstin Engström on behalf of the Authors (13 Sep 2016)
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Short summary
The development of global cropland in the future depends on how many people there will be, how much meat and milk we will eat, how much food we will waste and how well farms will be managed. Uncertainties in these factors mean that global cropland could decrease from today's 1500 Mha to only 893 Mha in 2100, which would free land for biofuel production. However, if population rises towards 12 billion and global yields remain low, global cropland could also increase up to 2380 Mha in 2100.
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