Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Brogaard, Sara; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016

Articles | Volume 7, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 7, issue 4

Research article

|

17 Nov 2016

Research article |

| 17 Nov 2016

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

Kerstin Engström, Stefan Olin, Mark D. A. Rounsevell, Sara Brogaard, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Peter Alexander, Dave Murray-Rust, and Almut Arneth

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Total article views: 5,046 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

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3,165	1,681	200	5,046	209	227

HTML: 3,165
PDF: 1,681
XML: 200
Total: 5,046
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Views and downloads (calculated since 15 Mar 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Mar 2016	85	25	1	111
Apr 2016	52	14	0	66
May 2016	35	14	0	49
Jun 2016	11	3	0	14
Jul 2016	8	13	0	21
Aug 2016	8	4	1	13
Sep 2016	5	8	1	14
Oct 2016	6	1	1	8
Nov 2016	27	11	1	39
Dec 2016	43	28	1	72
Jan 2017	45	51	0	96
Feb 2017	17	8	3	28
Mar 2017	36	62	5	103
Apr 2017	53	54	5	112
May 2017	46	72	4	122
Jun 2017	37	43	1	81
Jul 2017	16	28	2	46
Aug 2017	17	20	0	37
Sep 2017	14	9	1	24
Oct 2017	16	9	1	26
Nov 2017	16	11	0	27
Dec 2017	11	13	1	25
Jan 2018	14	13	0	27
Feb 2018	18	10	4	32
Mar 2018	11	8	0	19
Apr 2018	13	12	2	27
May 2018	9	5	0	14
Jun 2018	12	4	1	17
Jul 2018	12	4	0	16
Aug 2018	11	10	0	21
Sep 2018	9	6	0	15
Oct 2018	6	2	0	8
Nov 2018	17	17	0	34
Dec 2018	8	5	2	15
Jan 2019	8	5	0	13
Feb 2019	6	4	1	11
Mar 2019	3	6	2	11
Apr 2019	9	4	0	13
May 2019	12	12	0	24
Jun 2019	10	13	0	23
Jul 2019	5	8	0	13
Aug 2019	9	5	3	17
Sep 2019	5	4	0	9
Oct 2019	21	9	2	32
Nov 2019	22	8	3	33
Dec 2019	19	6	1	26
Jan 2020	30	11	0	41
Feb 2020	28	11	0	39
Mar 2020	23	14	2	39
Apr 2020	25	14	0	39
May 2020	22	4	0	26
Jun 2020	42	34	2	78
Jul 2020	44	52	21	117
Aug 2020	28	13	3	44
Sep 2020	32	15	0	47
Oct 2020	33	8	2	43
Nov 2020	22	15	2	39
Dec 2020	30	12	0	42
Jan 2021	39	18	2	59
Feb 2021	26	13	0	39
Mar 2021	57	12	1	70
Apr 2021	47	10	2	59
May 2021	66	14	4	84
Jun 2021	48	13	3	64
Jul 2021	18	15	2	35
Aug 2021	36	17	2	55
Sep 2021	61	18	2	81
Oct 2021	36	39	1	76
Nov 2021	55	40	4	99
Dec 2021	55	12	0	67
Jan 2022	36	18	2	56
Feb 2022	40	18	4	62
Mar 2022	14	11	1	26
Apr 2022	21	17	6	44
May 2022	14	16	2	32
Jun 2022	33	6	2	41
Jul 2022	40	4	1	45
Aug 2022	49	5	1	55
Sep 2022	38	13	1	52
Oct 2022	23	14	3	40
Nov 2022	17	14	2	33
Dec 2022	16	6	0	22
Jan 2023	16	13	1	30
Feb 2023	20	8	1	29
Mar 2023	43	6	0	49
Apr 2023	10	13	1	24
May 2023	26	13	1	40
Jun 2023	36	9	1	46
Jul 2023	15	3	0	18
Aug 2023	15	5	2	22
Sep 2023	13	9	1	23
Oct 2023	66	8	1	75
Nov 2023	103	9	0	112
Dec 2023	31	10	2	43
Jan 2024	16	6	1	23
Feb 2024	34	8	1	43
Mar 2024	30	18	4	52
Apr 2024	23	13	15	51
May 2024	18	16	1	35
Jun 2024	19	15	2	36
Jul 2024	28	24	4	56
Aug 2024	43	19	3	65
Sep 2024	17	24	2	43
Oct 2024	20	17	2	39
Nov 2024	11	8	1	20
Dec 2024	10	12	3	25
Jan 2025	34	13	1	48
Feb 2025	49	10	1	60
Mar 2025	28	12	2	42
Apr 2025	31	12	1	44
May 2025	27	10	1	38
Jun 2025	36	11	2	49
Jul 2025	39	27	4	70
Aug 2025	43	9	3	55
Sep 2025	47	12	2	61
Oct 2025	39	26	3	68
Nov 2025	12	6	0	18

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 15 Mar 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Mar 2016	85	25	1	111
Apr 2016	52	14	0	66
May 2016	35	14	0	49
Jun 2016	11	3	0	14
Jul 2016	8	13	0	21
Aug 2016	8	4	1	13
Sep 2016	5	8	1	14
Oct 2016	6	1	1	8
Nov 2016	27	11	1	39
Dec 2016	43	28	1	72
Jan 2017	45	51	0	96
Feb 2017	17	8	3	28
Mar 2017	36	62	5	103
Apr 2017	53	54	5	112
May 2017	46	72	4	122
Jun 2017	37	43	1	81
Jul 2017	16	28	2	46
Aug 2017	17	20	0	37
Sep 2017	14	9	1	24
Oct 2017	16	9	1	26
Nov 2017	16	11	0	27
Dec 2017	11	13	1	25
Jan 2018	14	13	0	27
Feb 2018	18	10	4	32
Mar 2018	11	8	0	19
Apr 2018	13	12	2	27
May 2018	9	5	0	14
Jun 2018	12	4	1	17
Jul 2018	12	4	0	16
Aug 2018	11	10	0	21
Sep 2018	9	6	0	15
Oct 2018	6	2	0	8
Nov 2018	17	17	0	34
Dec 2018	8	5	2	15
Jan 2019	8	5	0	13
Feb 2019	6	4	1	11
Mar 2019	3	6	2	11
Apr 2019	9	4	0	13
May 2019	12	12	0	24
Jun 2019	10	13	0	23
Jul 2019	5	8	0	13
Aug 2019	9	5	3	17
Sep 2019	5	4	0	9
Oct 2019	21	9	2	32
Nov 2019	22	8	3	33
Dec 2019	19	6	1	26
Jan 2020	30	11	0	41
Feb 2020	28	11	0	39
Mar 2020	23	14	2	39
Apr 2020	25	14	0	39
May 2020	22	4	0	26
Jun 2020	42	34	2	78
Jul 2020	44	52	21	117
Aug 2020	28	13	3	44
Sep 2020	32	15	0	47
Oct 2020	33	8	2	43
Nov 2020	22	15	2	39
Dec 2020	30	12	0	42
Jan 2021	39	18	2	59
Feb 2021	26	13	0	39
Mar 2021	57	12	1	70
Apr 2021	47	10	2	59
May 2021	66	14	4	84
Jun 2021	48	13	3	64
Jul 2021	18	15	2	35
Aug 2021	36	17	2	55
Sep 2021	61	18	2	81
Oct 2021	36	39	1	76
Nov 2021	55	40	4	99
Dec 2021	55	12	0	67
Jan 2022	36	18	2	56
Feb 2022	40	18	4	62
Mar 2022	14	11	1	26
Apr 2022	21	17	6	44
May 2022	14	16	2	32
Jun 2022	33	6	2	41
Jul 2022	40	4	1	45
Aug 2022	49	5	1	55
Sep 2022	38	13	1	52
Oct 2022	23	14	3	40
Nov 2022	17	14	2	33
Dec 2022	16	6	0	22
Jan 2023	16	13	1	30
Feb 2023	20	8	1	29
Mar 2023	43	6	0	49
Apr 2023	10	13	1	24
May 2023	26	13	1	40
Jun 2023	36	9	1	46
Jul 2023	15	3	0	18
Aug 2023	15	5	2	22
Sep 2023	13	9	1	23
Oct 2023	66	8	1	75
Nov 2023	103	9	0	112
Dec 2023	31	10	2	43
Jan 2024	16	6	1	23
Feb 2024	34	8	1	43
Mar 2024	30	18	4	52
Apr 2024	23	13	15	51
May 2024	18	16	1	35
Jun 2024	19	15	2	36
Jul 2024	28	24	4	56
Aug 2024	43	19	3	65
Sep 2024	17	24	2	43
Oct 2024	20	17	2	39
Nov 2024	11	8	1	20
Dec 2024	10	12	3	25
Jan 2025	34	13	1	48
Feb 2025	49	10	1	60
Mar 2025	28	12	2	42
Apr 2025	31	12	1	44
May 2025	27	10	1	38
Jun 2025	36	11	2	49
Jul 2025	39	27	4	70
Aug 2025	43	9	3	55
Sep 2025	47	12	2	61
Oct 2025	39	26	3	68
Nov 2025	12	6	0	18

Latest update: 07 Nov 2025

Short summary

The development of global cropland in the future depends on how many people there will be, how much meat and milk we will eat, how much food we will waste and how well farms will be managed. Uncertainties in these factors mean that global cropland could decrease from today's 1500 Mha to only 893 Mha in 2100, which would free land for biofuel production. However, if population rises towards 12 billion and global yields remain low, global cropland could also increase up to 2380 Mha in 2100.