Articles | Volume 7, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Nov 2016
Research article |
| 17 Nov 2016
Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework
Kerstin Engström
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 22362 Lund, Sweden
Stefan Olin
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 22362 Lund, Sweden
Mark D. A. Rounsevell
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Geography Building, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH89XP, UK
Sara Brogaard
Centre for Sustainability Studies, Lund University (LUCSUS), Biskopsgatan 5, 22362 Lund, Sweden
Detlef P. van Vuuren
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Postbus 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, the Netherlands
Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, the Netherlands
Peter Alexander
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Geography Building, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH89XP, UK
Dave Murray-Rust
School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh Appleton Tower, 11 Crichton Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9LE, UK
Almut Arneth
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
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Latest update: 14 Dec 2024
Short summary
The development of global cropland in the future depends on how many people there will be, how much meat and milk we will eat, how much food we will waste and how well farms will be managed. Uncertainties in these factors mean that global cropland could decrease from today's 1500 Mha to only 893 Mha in 2100, which would free land for biofuel production. However, if population rises towards 12 billion and global yields remain low, global cropland could also increase up to 2380 Mha in 2100.
The development of global cropland in the future depends on how many people there will be, how...
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