Articles | Volume 15, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review
| 
26 Jan 2024
Review |
| 26 Jan 2024
| 26 Jan 2024
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review
Nico Wunderling
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Earth System Analysis and Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
Anna S. von der Heydt
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physics, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Yevgeny Aksenov
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, United Kingdom
Stephen Barker
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, United Kingdom
Robbin Bastiaansen
Department of Physics, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Department of Mathematics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Victor Brovkin
Department of Climate Dynamics, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Maura Brunetti
Group of Applied Physics and Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
Victor Couplet
Earth and Life Institute, UCLouvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Thomas Kleinen
Department of Climate Dynamics, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Caroline H. Lear
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, United Kingdom
Johannes Lohmann
Physics of Ice, Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta
European Commission, Joint Research Center, Sustainable Resources, Forests and Bioeconomy Unit., Ispra, Italy
Sacha Sinet
Department of Physics, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Didier Swingedouw
Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC), Univ. Bordeaux, CNRS, Bordeaux INP, France
Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth System Analysis and Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Pallavi Anand
School of Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Milton Keynes, United Kingdom
Jonathan Barichivich
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile
Sebastian Bathiany
Earth System Analysis and Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany
Mara Baudena
Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), CNR, Torino, Italy
National Biodiversity Future Center, Palermo, Italy
John T. Bruun
Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Cristiano M. Chiessi
School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
Helen K. Coxall
Department of Geological Science, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
The Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm, Sweden
David Docquier
Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium
Jonathan F. Donges
Earth System Analysis and Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
Swinda K. J. Falkena
Department of Physics, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Ann Kristin Klose
Earth System Analysis and Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
David Obura
CORDIO East Africa, Mombasa, Kenya
Juan Rocha
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Anthropocene Laboratory, The Swedish Royal Academy of Science, Stockholm, Sweden
Stefanie Rynders
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, United Kingdom
Norman Julius Steinert
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Matteo Willeit
Earth System Analysis and Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Related authors
Florian Jehn, Łukasz Gajewski, Johanna Hedlund, Constantin Arnscheidt, Lili Xia, Nico Wunderling, and David Denkenberger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5MQ4R, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5MQ4R, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The global food trade system can handle small disturbances, but large disasters could cause major disruptions. We looked at how nuclear war or severe infrastructure loss would affect global trade in key crops. Both would be catastrophic, but a nuclear war would cause more severe disruptions, with many countries losing most of their food imports. Both scenarios highlight the need for better preparation to protect global food security.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, Jürgen Kurths, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the Earth system, climate tipping elements exist that can undergo qualitative changes in response to environmental perturbations. If triggered, this would result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. We quantify the risk of tipping cascades using a conceptual but fully dynamic network approach. We uncover that the risk of tipping cascades under global warming scenarios is enormous and find that the continental ice sheets are most likely to initiate these failures.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Yona Silvy, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jens Terhaar, Fortunat Joos, Friedrich A. Burger, Fabrice Lacroix, Myles Allen, Raffaele Bernardello, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Jonathan R. Buzan, Patricia Cadule, Martin Dix, John Dunne, Pierre Friedlingstein, Goran Georgievski, Tomohiro Hajima, Stuart Jenkins, Michio Kawamiya, Nancy Y. Kiang, Vladimir Lapin, Donghyun Lee, Paul Lerner, Nadine Mengis, Estela A. Monteiro, David Paynter, Glen P. Peters, Anastasia Romanou, Jörg Schwinger, Sarah Sparrow, Eric Stofferahn, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1591–1628, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1591-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The adaptive emission reduction approach is applied with Earth system models to generate temperature stabilization simulations. These simulations provide compatible emission pathways and budgets for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges previously missing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project scenarios. These target-based emission-driven simulations offer a more coherent assessment across models for studying both the carbon cycle and its impacts under climate stabilization.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Neil R. Edwards, and Stefan Rahmstorf
Clim. Past, 20, 2719–2739, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2719-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2719-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using an Earth system model that can simulate Dansgaard–Oeschger-like events, we show that conditions under which millennial-scale climate variability occurs are related to the integrated surface buoyancy flux over the northern North Atlantic. This newly defined buoyancy measure explains why millennial-scale climate variability arising from abrupt changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation occurred for mid-glacial conditions but not for interglacial or full glacial conditions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Amber A. Boot, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1567–1590, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the multiple equilibria window (MEW) of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) within a box model. We find that increasing the total carbon content of the system widens the MEW of the AMOC. The important mechanisms at play are the balance between the source and sink of carbon and the sensitivity of the AMOC to freshwater forcing over the Atlantic Ocean. Our results suggest that changes in the marine carbon cycle can influence AMOC stability in future climates.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nathaelle Bouttes, Lester Kwiatkowski, Elodie Bougeot, Manon Berger, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3738, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3738, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coral reefs are under threat due to warming and ocean acidification. It is difficult to project future coral reef production due to uncertainties in climate models, socio-economic scenarios and coral adaptation to warming. Here we have included a coral reef module within a climate model for the first time to evaluate the range of possible futures. We show that coral reef production decreases in most future scenarios, but in some cases coral reef carbonate production can persist.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Benjamin Mark Sanderson, Victor Brovkin, Rosie Fisher, David Hohn, Tatiana Ilyina, Chris Jones, Torben Koenigk, Charles Koven, Hongmei Li, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Spencer Liddicoat, Andrew Macdougall, Nadine Mengis, Zebedee Nicholls, Eleanor O'Rourke, Anastasia Romanou, Marit Sandstad, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Seferian, Lori Sentman, Isla Simpson, Chris Smith, Norman Steinert, Abigail Swann, Jerry Tjiputra, and Tilo Ziehn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3356, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated zero emissions commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1417–1434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using a fast Earth system model we trace the stability landscape of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the combined freshwater forcing–atmospheric CO2 space. We find four different Atlantic meridional overturning circulation states that are stable under different conditions and a generally increasing equilibrium Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength with increasing CO2 concentrations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Jehn, Łukasz Gajewski, Johanna Hedlund, Constantin Arnscheidt, Lili Xia, Nico Wunderling, and David Denkenberger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5MQ4R, https://doi.org/10.31223/X5MQ4R, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The global food trade system can handle small disturbances, but large disasters could cause major disruptions. We looked at how nuclear war or severe infrastructure loss would affect global trade in key crops. Both would be catastrophic, but a nuclear war would cause more severe disruptions, with many countries losing most of their food imports. Both scenarios highlight the need for better preparation to protect global food security.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christine Kaufhold, Matteo Willeit, Bo Liu, and Andrey Ganopolski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2976, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2976, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study simulates long-term future climate scenarios to examine how long CO2 emissions will persist in the atmosphere. It shows that the effectiveness of carbon removal processes varies with the amount emitted. The removal of CO2 through silicate weathering is faster than previously thought, leading to a quicker reduction over time. The combined behaviour of different carbon cycle processes emphasizes the need to include all of them in models, as to better predict long-term atmospheric CO2.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ann Kristin Klose, Violaine Coulon, Frank Pattyn, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4463–4492, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We systematically assess the long-term sea-level response from Antarctica to warming projected over the next centuries, using two ice-sheet models. We show that this committed Antarctic sea-level contribution is substantially higher than the transient sea-level change projected for the coming decades. A low-emission scenario already poses considerable risk of multi-meter sea-level increase over the next millennia, while additional East Antarctic ice loss unfolds under the high-emission pathway.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Max Bechthold, Wolfram Barfuss, André Butz, Jannes Breier, Sara M. Constantino, Jobst Heitzig, Luana Schwarz, Sanam N. Vardag, and Jonathan F. Donges
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2924, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2924, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Social norms are a major influence on human behaviour. In natural resource use models, norms are often included in a simplistic way leading to "black or white" sustainability outcomes. We find that a dynamic representation of norms, including social groups, determines more nuanced states of the environment in a stylized model of resource use, while also defining the success of attempts to manage the system, suggesting the importance of well representing both in coupled models.
Mateo Duque-Villegas, Martin Claussen, Thomas Kleinen, Jürgen Bader, and Christian H. Reick
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-61, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-61, 2024
Preprint under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
We simulate the last glacial cycle with a comprehensive Earth system model and investigate vegetation change in North Africa during the last four African humid periods (AHPs). We find a common AHP pattern of vegetation change and relate it to climatic factors to discuss how vegetation might have evolved in much older AHPs. The relationship we found for past AHPs does not hold for projected changes in North Africa under strong greenhouse gas warming.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Victor Couplet, Marina Martínez Montero, and Michel Crucifix
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2279, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2279, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present SURFER v3.0, a simple climate model designed to estimate the impact of CO2 and CH4 emissions on global temperatures, sea levels, and ocean pH. We added new carbon cycle processes and calibrated the model to observations and results from more complex models, enabling use over time scales ranging from decades to millions of years. SURFER v3.0 is fast, transparent, and easy to use, making it an ideal tool for policy assessments and suitable for educational purposes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Viktoria Spaiser, Sirkku Juhola, Sara M. Constantino, Weisi Guo, Tabitha Watson, Jana Sillmann, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, John T. Bruun, Krishna Krishnamurthy, Jürgen Scheffran, Patricia Pinho, Uche T. Okpara, Jonathan F. Donges, Avit Bhowmik, Taha Yasseri, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Graeme S. Cumming, Hugues Chenet, Florian Krampe, Jesse F. Abrams, James G. Dyke, Stefanie Rynders, Yevgeny Aksenov, and Bryan M. Spears
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1179–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we identify potential negative social tipping points linked to Earth system destabilization and draw on related research to understand the drivers and likelihood of these negative social tipping dynamics, their potential effects on human societies and the Earth system, and the potential for cascading interactions and contribution to systemic risks.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Johannes Feldmann, Anders Levermann, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 18, 4011–4028, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-4011-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show in simplified simulations that the (ir)reversibility of the retreat of instability-prone, Antarctica-type glaciers can strongly depend on the depth of the bed depression they rest on. If it is sufficiently deep, then the destabilized glacier does not recover from its collapsed state. Our results suggest that glaciers resting on a wide and deep bed depression, such as Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier, are particularly susceptible to irreversible retreat.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nathaelle Bouttes, Lester Kwiatkowski, Manon Berger, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6513–6528, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coral reefs are crucial for biodiversity, but they also play a role in the carbon cycle on long time scales of a few thousand years. To better simulate the future and past evolution of coral reefs and their effect on the global carbon cycle, hence on atmospheric CO2 concentration, it is necessary to include coral reefs within a climate model. Here we describe the inclusion of coral reef carbonate production in a carbon–climate model and its validation in comparison to existing modern data.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Amali A. Amali, Clemens Schwingshackl, Akihiko Ito, Alina Barbu, Christine Delire, Daniele Peano, David M. Lawrence, David Wårlind, Eddy Robertson, Edouard L. Davin, Elena Shevliakova, Ian N. Harman, Nicolas Vuichard, Paul A. Miller, Peter J. Lawrence, Tilo Ziehn, Tomohiro Hajima, Victor Brovkin, Yanwu Zhang, Vivek K. Arora, and Julia Pongratz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2460, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored the impact of anthropogenic land-use change (LUC) on climate dynamics, focusing on biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) effects using data from the CMIP6-LUMIP project. We found that LUC-induced carbon emissions contribute to a BGC warming of 0.20 °C, with BGC effects dominating globally over BGP effects, which show regional variability. Our findings highlight discrepancies in model simulations and emphasise the need for improved representations of LUC processes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, Beatriz Arellano-Nava, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1117–1135, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tipping points are abrupt, rapid, and sometimes irreversible changes, and numerous approaches have been proposed to detect them in advance. Such approaches have been termed early warning signals and represent a set of methods for identifying changes in the underlying behaviour of a system across time or space that might indicate an approaching tipping point. Here, we review the literature to explore where, how, and which early warnings have been used in real-world case studies so far.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Friedrich J. Bohn, Ana Bastos, Romina Martin, Anja Rammig, Niak Sian Koh, Giles B. Sioen, Bram Buscher, Louise Carver, Fabrice DeClerck, Moritz Drupp, Robert Fletcher, Matthew Forrest, Alexandros Gasparatos, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Gregor Hagedorn, Martin Hänsel, Jessica Hetzer, Thomas Hickler, Cornelia B. Krug, Stasja Koot, Xiuzhen Li, Amy Luers, Shelby Matevich, H. Damon Matthews, Ina C. Meier, Awaz Mohamed, Sungmin O, David Obura, Ben Orlove, Rene Orth, Laura Pereira, Markus Reichstein, Lerato Thakholi, Peter Verburg, and Yuki Yoshida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An interdisciplinary collaboration of 35 international researchers from 34 institutions highlighting nine recent findings in biosphere research. Within these themes, they discuss issues arising from climate change and other anthropogenic stressors, and highlight the co-benefits of nature-based solutions and ecosystem services. They discuss recent findings in the context of global trade and international policy frameworks, and highlight lessons for local implementation of nature-based solutions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Arthur Merlijn Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Frank M. Selten, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1037–1054, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1037-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1037-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We might be able to constrain uncertainty in future climate projections by investigating variations in the climate of the past. In this study, we investigate the interactions of climate variability between the tropical Pacific (El Niño) and the North Pacific in a warm past climate – the mid-Pliocene, a period roughly 3 million years ago. Using model simulations, we find that, although the variability in El Niño was reduced, the variability in the North Pacific atmosphere was not.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 20, 1595–1613, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1595-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1595-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We close the terrestrial water cycle across the Sahara and Sahel by integrating a new endorheic-lake model into a climate model. A factor analysis of mid-Holocene simulations shows that both dynamic lakes and dynamic vegetation individually contribute to a precipitation increase over northern Africa that is collectively greater than that caused by the interaction between lake and vegetation dynamics. Thus, the lake–vegetation interaction causes a relative drying response across the entire Sahel.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sacha Sinet, Peter Ashwin, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 859–873, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-859-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-859-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Some components of the Earth system may irreversibly collapse under global warming. Among them, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Greenland Ice Sheet, and West Antarctica Ice Sheet are of utmost importance for maintaining the present-day climate. In a simplified model, we show that both the rate of ice melting and the natural variability linked to freshwater fluxes over the Atlantic Ocean drastically affect how an ice sheet collapse impacts the AMOC stability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Annelies Sticker, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, Patricia DeRepentigny, Alexandra Jahn, David Docquier, Christopher Wyburn-Powell, Daphne Quint, Erica Shivers, and Makayla Ortiz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1873, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study analyses rapid Arctic sea ice loss events (RILEs), which are significant reductions in sea ice extent. RILEs are expected throughout the year, varying in frequency and duration with the seasons. Our research gives a year-round analysis of their characteristics in climate models and suggests that summer RILEs could begin before the mid-century. Understanding these events is crucial as they can have profound impacts on the Arctic environment.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Chenzhi Li, Anne Dallmeyer, Jian Ni, Manuel Chevalier, Matteo Willeit, Andrei A. Andreev, Xianyong Cao, Laura Schild, Birgit Heim, and Ulrike Herzschuh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1862, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global megabiome dynamics and distributions derived from pollen-based reconstructions over the last 21,000 years, which are suitable for the evaluation of Earth System Model-based paleo-megabiome simulations. We identified strong deviations between pollen- and model-derived megabiome distributions in the circum-Arctic areas and Tibetan Plateau during the Last Glacial Maximum and early deglaciation, as well as in North Africa and the Mediterranean regions during the Holocene.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stefanie Talento, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 20, 1349–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1349-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1349-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To trigger glacial inception, the summer maximum insolation at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere must be lower than a critical value. This value is not constant but depends on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Paleoclimatic data do not give enough information to derive the relationship between the critical threshold and CO2. However, knowledge of such a relation is important for predicting future glaciations and the impact anthropogenic CO2 emissions might have on them.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Zhen Zhang, Benjamin Poulter, Joe R. Melton, William J. Riley, George H. Allen, David J. Beerling, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Philippe Ciais, Nicola Gedney, Peter O. Hopcroft, Akihiko Ito, Robert B. Jackson, Atul K. Jain, Katherine Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Sara Knox, Tingting Li, Xin Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle McDonald, Gavin McNicol, Paul A. Miller, Jurek Müller, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Zhangcai Qin, Ryan M. Riggs, Marielle Saunois, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Xiaoming Xu, Yuanzhi Yao, Xi Yi, Wenxin Zhang, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1584, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1584, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses global methane emissions from wetlands between 2000 and 2020 using multiple models. We found that wetland emissions increased by 6–7 Tg CH4 per year in the 2010s compared to the 2000s. Rising temperatures primarily drove this increase, while changes in precipitation and CO2 levels also played roles. Our findings highlight the importance of wetlands in the global methane budget and the need for continuous monitoring to understand their impact on climate change.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marielle Saunois, Adrien Martinez, Benjamin Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Peter Raymond, Pierre Regnier, Joseph G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Bousquet, Philippe Ciais, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Xin Lan, George H. Allen, David Bastviken, David J. Beerling, Dmitry A. Belikov, Donald R. Blake, Simona Castaldi, Monica Crippa, Bridget R. Deemer, Fraser Dennison, Giuseppe Etiope, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Meredith A. Holgerson, Peter O. Hopcroft, Gustaf Hugelius, Akihito Ito, Atul K. Jain, Rajesh Janardanan, Matthew S. Johnson, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Ronny Lauerwald, Tingting Li, Xiangyu Liu, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe R. Melton, Jens Mühle, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Shufen Pan, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Judith A. Rosentreter, Motoki Sasakawa, Arjo Segers, Steven J. Smith, Emily H. Stanley, Joel Thanwerdas, Hanquin Tian, Aki Tsuruta, Francesco N. Tubiello, Thomas S. Weber, Guido van der Werf, Doug E. Worthy, Yi Xi, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-115, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-115, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Methane (CH4) is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2). A consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists synthesize and update the budget of the sources and sinks of CH4. This edition benefits from important progresses in estimating emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. For the 2010s decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated at 575 Tg CH4 yr-1, including ~65 % from anthropogenic sources.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ann Kristin Klose, Jonathan F. Donges, Ulrike Feudel, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 635–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We qualitatively study the long-term stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet and AMOC as tipping elements in the Earth system, which is largely unknown given their interaction in a positive–negative feedback loop. Depending on the timescales of ice loss and the position of the AMOC’s state relative to its critical threshold, we find distinct dynamic regimes of cascading tipping. These suggest that respecting safe rates of environmental change is necessary to mitigate potential domino effects.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Dennis H.A. Vermeulen, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, and Anna S. von der Heydt
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-30, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-30, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
Late-Eocene summers, 34 million years ago, were hot on Antarctica, with temperatures up to 30 °C. We also know that during that period the first Antarctic Ice Sheet formed. Since climate models don’t show this transition from warm climate to ice sheet formation accurately, we imposed regional ice sheets onto the continent in a realistic climate, and show that these ice sheets don't melt away. This suggests that the initiation of ice sheet growth might indeed have happened during warmer periods.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Xiangyu Li, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 20, 1067–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1067-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1067-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and a smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mid-Pliocene (~ 3 million years ago) cause the Southern Ocean surface to become fresher and warmer, which affects the global ocean circulation. The CO2 concentration and the smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet both have a similar and approximately equal impact on the Southern Ocean. The conditions of the Southern Ocean in the mid-Pliocene could therefore be analogous to those in a future climate with smaller ice sheets.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Norman Julius Steinert, Elena García-Bustamante, Philip de Vrese, Johann Jungclaus, Stephan Lorenz, Stefan Hagemann, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, and Hugo Beltrami
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 547–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-547-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-547-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
According to climate model estimates, the land stored 2 % of the system's heat excess in the last decades, while observational studies show it was around 6 %. This difference stems from these models using land components that are too shallow to constrain land heat uptake. Deepening the land component does not affect the surface temperature. This result can be used to derive land heat uptake estimates from different sources, which are much closer to previous observational reports.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Roberto Bilbao, Pablo Ortega, Didier Swingedouw, Leon Hermanson, Panos Athanasiadis, Rosie Eade, Marion Devilliers, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Nick Dunstone, An-Chi Ho, William Merryfield, Juliette Mignot, Dario Nicolì, Margarida Samsó, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Xian Wu, and Stephen Yeager
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 501–525, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In recent decades three major volcanic eruptions have occurred: Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991. In this article we explore the climatic impacts of these volcanic eruptions with a purposefully designed set of simulations from six CMIP6 decadal prediction systems. We analyse the radiative and dynamical responses and show that including the volcanic forcing in these predictions is important to reproduce the observed surface temperature variations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Flor Vermassen, Clare Bird, Tirza M. Weitkamp, Kate F. Darling, Hanna Farnelid, Céline Heuzé, Allison Y. Hsiang, Salar Karam, Christian Stranne, Marcus Sundbom, and Helen K. Coxall
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1091, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1091, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We provide the first systematic survey of planktonic foraminifera in the high Arctic Ocean. Our results describe the abundance and species composition under summer sea-ice. They indicate that the polar specialist N. pachyderma is the only species present, with subpolar species absent. The dataset will be a valuable reference for continued monitoring of the state of planktonic foraminifera communities as they respond to the ongoing sea-ice decline and the ‘Atlantification’ of the Arctic Ocean.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maya Ben-Yami, Lana Blaschke, Sebastian Bathiany, and Niklas Boers
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1106, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Recent work has used observations to find statistical signs that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may be approaching a collapse. We find that in complex climate models in which the AMOC does not collapse before 2100, the statistical signs that are present in the observations are not found in the 1850–2014 equivalent model time series. This indicates that the observed statistical signs are not prone to false positives.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nils Weitzel, Heather Andres, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lukas Jonkers, Oliver Bothe, Elisa Ziegler, Thomas Kleinen, André Paul, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 20, 865–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The ability of climate models to faithfully reproduce past warming episodes is a valuable test considering potentially large future warming. We develop a new method to compare simulations of the last deglaciation with temperature reconstructions. We find that reconstructions differ more between regions than simulations, potentially due to deficiencies in the simulation design, models, or reconstructions. Our work is a promising step towards benchmarking simulations of past climate transitions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Laura M. Pereira, Ignacio Gianelli, Therezah Achieng, Diva Amon, Sally Archibald, Suchinta Arif, Azucena Castro, Tapiwa Prosper Chimbadzwa, Kaera Coetzer, Tracy-Lynn Field, Odirilwe Selomane, Nadia Sitas, Nicola Stevens, Sebastian Villasante, Mohammed Armani, Duncan M. Kimuyu, Ibukun J. Adewumi, David M. Lapola, David Obura, Patricia Pinho, Felipe Roa-Clavijo, Juan Rocha, and U. Rashid Sumaila
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 341–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Narratives around tipping points, such as the need for
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
positivetipping points in energy transitions to avoid
negativeEarth system tipping points, do not take into account the entire spectrum of impacts the proposed interventions could have or still rely on narratives that maintain current unsustainable behaviours and marginalize many people. We unpack these ideas in the context of what they mean for the concept of tipping points, using a critical decolonial view from the Global South.
Arthur Merlijn Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Aarnout J. van Delden, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 395–417, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-395-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-395-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-Pliocene, a geological period around 3 million years ago, is sometimes considered the best analogue for near-future climate. It saw similar CO2 concentrations to the present-day but also a slightly different geography. In this study, we use climate model simulations and find that the Northern Hemisphere winter responds very differently to increased CO2 or to the mid-Pliocene geography. Our results weaken the potential of the mid-Pliocene as a future climate analogue.
Matteo Willeit, Reinhard Calov, Stefanie Talento, Ralf Greve, Jorjo Bernales, Volker Klemann, Meike Bagge, and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 20, 597–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present transient simulations of the last glacial inception with the coupled climate–ice sheet model CLIMBER-X showing a rapid increase in Northern Hemisphere ice sheet area and a sea level drop by ~ 35 m, with the vegetation feedback playing a key role. Overall, our simulations confirm and refine previous results showing that climate-vegetation–cryosphere–carbon cycle feedbacks play a fundamental role in the transition from interglacial to glacial states.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Frances A. Procter, Sandra Piazolo, Eleanor H. John, Richard Walshaw, Paul N. Pearson, Caroline H. Lear, and Tracy Aze
Biogeosciences, 21, 1213–1233, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1213-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1213-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses novel techniques to look at the microstructure of planktonic foraminifera (single-celled marine organisms) fossils, to further our understanding of how they form their hard exterior shells and how the microstructure and chemistry of these shells can change as a result of processes that occur after deposition on the seafloor. Understanding these processes is of critical importance for using planktonic foraminifera for robust climate and environmental reconstructions of the past.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
David Docquier, Giorgia Di Capua, Reik V. Donner, Carlos A. L. Pires, Amélie Simon, and Stéphane Vannitsem
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 115–136, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Identifying causes of specific processes is crucial in order to better understand our climate system. Traditionally, correlation analyses have been used to identify cause–effect relationships in climate studies. However, correlation does not imply causation, which justifies the need to use causal methods. We compare two independent causal methods and show that these are superior to classical correlation analyses. We also find some interesting differences between the two methods.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Camilla Therese Mathison, Eleanor Burke, Eszter Kovacs, Gregory Munday, Chris Huntingford, Chris Jones, Chris Smith, Norman Steinert, Andy Wiltshire, Laila Gohar, and Rebecca Varney
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2932, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2932, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present PRIME (Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions), which is designed to take new emission scenarios and rapidly provide regional impacts information. PRIME allows large ensembles to be run on multi-centennial timescales including analysis of many important variables for impacts assessments. Our evaluation shows that PRIME reproduces the climate response for known scenarios giving confidence in using PRIME for novel scenarios.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Christoph Kittel, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Frank Pattyn
The Cryosphere, 18, 653–681, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-653-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present new projections of the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet until the end of the millennium, calibrated with observations. We show that the ocean will be the main trigger of future ice loss. As temperatures continue to rise, the atmosphere's role may shift from mitigating to amplifying Antarctic mass loss already by the end of the century. For high-emission scenarios, this may lead to substantial sea-level rise. Adopting sustainable practices would however reduce the rate of ice loss.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Johannes Lohmann, Jiamei Lin, Bo M. Vinther, Sune O. Rasmussen, and Anders Svensson
Clim. Past, 20, 313–333, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-313-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-313-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first attempt to constrain the climatic impact of volcanic eruptions with return periods of hundreds of years by the oxygen isotope records of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores covering the last glacial period. A clear multi-annual volcanic cooling signal is seen, but its absolute magnitude is subject to the unknown glacial sensitivity of the proxy. Different proxy signals after eruptions during cooler versus warmer glacial stages may reflect a state-dependent climate response.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Akihiko Ito, Kaoru Tachiiri, Chris Jones, Vivek Arora, Victor Brovkin, Roland Séférian, Spencer Liddicoat, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Elena Shevliakova
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-188, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global carbon budgets simulated by multiple Earth system models, using several types of simulations. We successfully identified problems of global carbon budget in each model. We also found urgent issues that should be solved in the latest generation of models, land use change CO2 emissions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tuula Aalto, Aki Tsuruta, Jarmo Mäkelä, Jurek Mueller, Maria Tenkanen, Eleanor Burke, Sarah Chadburn, Yao Gao, Vilma Mannisenaho, Thomas Kleinen, Hanna Lee, Antti Leppänen, Tiina Markkanen, Stefano Materia, Paul Miller, Daniele Peano, Olli Peltola, Benjamin Poulter, Maarit Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, David Wårlind, and Sönke Zaehle
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2873, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2873, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation were studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in Northern Europe using ecosystem models, atmospheric inversions and up-scaled flux observations. The ecosystem models differed in their responses to temperature and precipitation and in their seasonality. However, multi-model means, inversions and up-scaled fluxes had similar seasonality, and they suggested co-limitation by temperature and precipitation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Félix García-Pereira, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Thomas Schmid, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, Cristina Vegas-Cañas, Norman Julius Steinert, Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Philipp de Vrese
SOIL, 10, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-10-1-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work addresses air–ground temperature coupling and propagation into the subsurface in a mountainous area in central Spain using surface and subsurface data from six meteorological stations. Heat transfer of temperature changes at the ground surface occurs mainly by conduction controlled by thermal diffusivity of the subsurface, which varies with depth and time. A new methodology shows that near-surface diffusivity and soil moisture content changes with time are closely related.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Michiel Baatsen, Peter Bijl, Anna von der Heydt, Appy Sluijs, and Henk Dijkstra
Clim. Past, 20, 77–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-77-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-77-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work introduces the possibility and consequences of monsoons on Antarctica in the warm Eocene climate. We suggest that such a monsoonal climate can be important to understand conditions in Antarctica prior to large-scale glaciation. We can explain seemingly contradictory indications of ice and vegetation on the continent through regional variability. In addition, we provide a new mechanism through which most of Antarctica remained ice-free through a wide range of global climatic changes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Paul Pearce-Kelly, Andrew H. Altier, John F. Bruno, Christopher E. Cornwall, Melanie McField, Aarón Israel Muñiz-Castillo, Juan Rocha, Renee O. Setter, Charles Sheppard, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, and Chris Yesson
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-35, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-35, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for ESD
Short summary
Short summary
Coral reefs face unprecedented threats from multiple stressors, many of which are linked to human activities. Some stressors have tipping points, that if exceeded, will cause coral collapse. These include temperatures rising 1.2 °C above pre-industrial levels and atmospheric CO2 above 350 parts per million. Uncertainty remains for these thresholds as many stressors interact in ways we don’t understand. It is important to study these and employ a precautionary principle when planning our actions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Takahito Mitsui, Matteo Willeit, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1277–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1277-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The glacial–interglacial cycles of the Quaternary exhibit 41 kyr periodicity before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) around 1.2–0.8 Myr ago and ~100 kyr periodicity after that. The mechanism generating these periodicities remains elusive. Through an analysis of an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, we show that the dominant periodicities of glacial cycles can be explained from the viewpoint of synchronization theory.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sina Loriani, Yevgeny Aksenov, David Armstrong McKay, Govindasamy Bala, Andreas Born, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Henk Dijkstra, Jonathan F. Donges, Sybren Drijfhout, Matthew H. England, Alexey V. Fedorov, Laura Jackson, Kai Kornhuber, Gabriele Messori, Francesco Pausata, Stefanie Rynders, Jean-Baptiste Salée, Bablu Sinha, Steven Sherwood, Didier Swingedouw, and Thejna Tharammal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2589, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we draw on paleoreords, observations and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is considered conceivable but currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hélène Seroussi, Vincent Verjans, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Peter Van Katwyk, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 17, 5197–5217, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mass loss from Antarctica is a key contributor to sea level rise over the 21st century, and the associated uncertainty dominates sea level projections. We highlight here the Antarctic glaciers showing the largest changes and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in their future evolution using an ensemble of ice flow models. We show that on top of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, Totten and Moscow University glaciers show rapid changes and a strong sensitivity to warmer ocean conditions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2583, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2583, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We identify potential oceanic gateways to Antarctic grounding lines based on high-resolution bathymetry data and examine the effect of critical access depths on basal melt rates. These gateways manifest the deepest topographic features that connect the deeper open ocean and the ice-shelf cavity. We detect 'prominent' oceanic gateways in some Antarctic regions and estimate an upper limit of melt rate changes in case all warm water masses gain access to the cavities.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, Lena Nicola, Ronja Reese, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2737, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2737, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how changing sea levels around Antarctica can potentially affect the floating ice shelves. It utilizes numerical models for both the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the solid Earth, investigating features like troughs and sills that control the flow of ocean water onto the continental shelf. The research finds that variations in sea level alone can significantly impact the melting rates of ice shelves.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jordan Paul Everall, Jonathan F. Donges, and Ilona M. Otto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2241, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2241, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A social tipping process is a rapid, large change in society, and can be started by few people. Does the 80/20 rule apply here? We see if this is the case for human social groups. We find that if so then it occurs when around 25 % of people engage. Tipping seems generally possible in the range of around 10 % to 40 % of the population, with most systems having tipped by the 40 % mark. When people don't change so easily, trusting groups of friends and housemates can help convince wayward friends.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Julius Garbe, Maria Zeitz, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 4571–4599, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4571-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We adopt the novel surface module dEBM-simple in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to investigate the impact of atmospheric warming on Antarctic surface melt and long-term ice sheet dynamics. As an enhancement compared to traditional temperature-based melt schemes, the module accounts for changes in ice surface albedo and thus the melt–albedo feedback. Our results underscore the critical role of ice–atmosphere feedbacks in the future sea-level contribution of Antarctica on long timescales.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Xin Ren, Daniel J. Lunt, Erica Hendy, Anna von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Charles J. R. Williams, Christian Stepanek, Chuncheng Guo, Deepak Chandan, Gerrit Lohmann, Julia C. Tindall, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Masa Kageyama, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Ran Feng, Stephen Hunter, Wing-Le Chan, W. Richard Peltier, Xiangyu Li, Youichi Kamae, Zhongshi Zhang, and Alan M. Haywood
Clim. Past, 19, 2053–2077, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2053-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the Maritime Continent climate in the mid-Piacenzian warm period and find it is warmer and wetter and the sea surface salinity is lower compared with preindustrial period. Besides, the fresh and warm water transfer through the Maritime Continent was stronger. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models in the multimodel results, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean, which could reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the multimodel mean.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, Sun-Seon Lee, Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, and Jyoti Jadhav
Clim. Past, 19, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1951-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To quantify the sensitivity of the earth system to orbital-scale forcings, we conducted an unprecedented quasi-continuous coupled general climate model simulation with the Community Earth System Model, which covers the climatic history of the past 3 million years. This study could stimulate future transient paleo-climate model simulations and perspectives to further highlight and document the effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the broader paleo-climatic context.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christoph Heinze, Thorsten Blenckner, Peter Brown, Friederike Fröb, Anne Morée, Adrian L. New, Cara Nissen, Stefanie Rynders, Isabel Seguro, Yevgeny Aksenov, Yuri Artioli, Timothée Bourgeois, Friedrich Burger, Jonathan Buzan, B. B. Cael, Veli Çağlar Yumruktepe, Melissa Chierici, Christopher Danek, Ulf Dieckmann, Agneta Fransson, Thomas Frölicher, Giovanni Galli, Marion Gehlen, Aridane G. González, Melchor Gonzalez-Davila, Nicolas Gruber, Örjan Gustafsson, Judith Hauck, Mikko Heino, Stephanie Henson, Jenny Hieronymus, I. Emma Huertas, Fatma Jebri, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Fortunat Joos, Jaideep Joshi, Stephen Kelly, Nandini Menon, Precious Mongwe, Laurent Oziel, Sólveig Ólafsdottir, Julien Palmieri, Fiz F. Pérez, Rajamohanan Pillai Ranith, Juliano Ramanantsoa, Tilla Roy, Dagmara Rusiecka, J. Magdalena Santana Casiano, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Miriam Seifert, Anna Shchiptsova, Bablu Sinha, Christopher Somes, Reiner Steinfeldt, Dandan Tao, Jerry Tjiputra, Adam Ulfsbo, Christoph Völker, Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu, and Ying Ye
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-182, 2023
Preprint under review for BG
Short summary
Short summary
For assessing the consequences of human-induced climate change for the marine realm, it is necessary to not only look at gradual changes but also at abrupt changes of environmental conditions. We summarise abrupt changes in ocean warming, acidification, and oxygen concentration as the key environmental factors for ecosystems. Taking these abrupt changes into account requires greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced to a larger extent than previously thought to limit respective damage.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Ricarda Winkelmann, Mondher Chekki, David Chandler, and Petra M. Langebroek
The Cryosphere, 17, 3739–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The grounding lines of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could enter phases of irreversible retreat or advance. We use three ice sheet models to show that the present-day locations of Antarctic grounding lines are reversible with respect to a small perturbation away from their current position. This indicates that present-day retreat of the grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-enhancing.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ronja Reese, Julius Garbe, Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, Kaitlin A. Naughten, Olivier Gagliardini, Gaël Durand, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, David Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 3761–3783, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use an ice sheet model to test where current climate conditions in Antarctica might lead. We find that present-day ocean and atmosphere conditions might commit an irreversible collapse of parts of West Antarctica which evolves over centuries to millennia. Importantly, this collapse is not irreversible yet.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Charline Ragon, Christian Vérard, Jérôme Kasparian, and Maura Brunetti
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1808, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1808, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Deep-time climate simulations are challenging since sedimentary data are too sparse and uncertain to fully constrain initial and boundary conditions. By exploring a wide range of initial conditions, we find three alternative steady states with a temperature difference of around 10 °C in simulations using the Permian-Triassic paleogeography. This opens the possibility of explaining climatic variations in Early Triassic geological records through tipping mechanisms between steady states.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Yanan Wang, Byongjun Hwang, Adam William Bateson, Yevgeny Aksenov, and Christopher Horvat
The Cryosphere, 17, 3575–3591, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3575-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3575-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice is composed of small, discrete pieces of ice called floes, whose size distribution plays a critical role in the interactions between the sea ice, ocean and atmosphere. This study provides an assessment of sea ice models using new high-resolution floe size distribution observations, revealing considerable differences between them. These findings point not only to the limitations in models but also to the need for more high-resolution observations to validate and calibrate models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
István Dunkl, Nicole Lovenduski, Alessio Collalti, Vivek K. Arora, Tatiana Ilyina, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 3523–3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-3523-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Despite differences in the reproduction of gross primary productivity (GPP) by Earth system models (ESMs), ESMs have similar predictability of the global carbon cycle. We found that, although GPP variability originates from different regions and is driven by different climatic variables across the ESMs, the ESMs rely on the same mechanisms to predict their own GPP. This shows that the predictability of the carbon cycle is limited by our understanding of variability rather than predictability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Johanna Beckmann and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 3083–3099, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3083-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Over the past decade, Greenland has experienced several extreme melt events.
With progressing climate change, such extreme melt events can be expected to occur more frequently and potentially become more severe and persistent.
Strong melt events may considerably contribute to Greenland's mass loss, which in turn strongly determines future sea level rise. How important these extreme melt events could be in the future is assessed in this study for the first time.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
E. Keith Smith, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, and Ricarda Winkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1622, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1622, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Social tipping dynamics have received recent attention as a potential mechanism for effective climate actions – yet how such tipping dynamics could unfold remains largely unquantified. We explore how social tipping processes can developed via enabling necessary conditions (exemplified by climate change concern) and increased perceptions of localized impacts (sea-level rise). The likelihood for social tipping varies regionally, mostly along areas with highest exposure to persistent risks.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Zoé Rehder, Thomas Kleinen, Lars Kutzbach, Victor Stepanenko, Moritz Langer, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 20, 2837–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2837-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use a new model to investigate how methane emissions from Arctic ponds change with warming. We find that emissions increase substantially. Under annual temperatures 5 °C above present temperatures, pond methane emissions are more than 3 times higher than now. Most of this increase is caused by an increase in plant productivity as plants provide the substrate microbes used to produce methane. We conclude that vegetation changes need to be included in predictions of pond methane emissions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lena Nicola, Dirk Notz, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 17, 2563–2583, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For future sea-level projections, approximating Antarctic precipitation increases through temperature-scaling approaches will remain important, as coupled ice-sheet simulations with regional climate models remain computationally expensive, especially on multi-centennial timescales. We here revisit the relationship between Antarctic temperature and precipitation using different scaling approaches, identifying and explaining regional differences.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matteo Willeit, Tatiana Ilyina, Bo Liu, Christoph Heinze, Mahé Perrette, Malte Heinemann, Daniela Dalmonech, Victor Brovkin, Guy Munhoven, Janine Börker, Jens Hartmann, Gibran Romero-Mujalli, and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3501–3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3501-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present the carbon cycle component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. The model can be run with interactive atmospheric CO2 to investigate the feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle on temporal scales ranging from decades to > 100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate–carbon cycle changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the Earth system.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maximilian Gelbrecht, Alistair White, Sebastian Bathiany, and Niklas Boers
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3123–3135, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3123-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3123-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Differential programming is a technique that enables the automatic computation of derivatives of the output of models with respect to model parameters. Applying these techniques to Earth system modeling leverages the increasing availability of high-quality data to improve the models themselves. This can be done by either using calibration techniques that use gradient-based optimization or incorporating machine learning methods that can learn previously unresolved influences directly from data.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Thomas Kleinen, Sergey Gromov, Benedikt Steil, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 19, 1081–1099, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1081-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1081-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled atmospheric methane continuously from the last glacial maximum to the present using a state-of-the-art Earth system model. Our model results compare well with reconstructions from ice cores and improve our understanding of a very intriguing period of Earth system history, the deglaciation, when atmospheric methane changed quickly and strongly. Deglacial methane changes are driven by emissions from tropical wetlands, with wetlands in high northern latitudes being secondary.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philipp de Vrese, Goran Georgievski, Jesus Fidel Gonzalez Rouco, Dirk Notz, Tobias Stacke, Norman Julius Steinert, Stiig Wilkenskjeld, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 17, 2095–2118, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The current generation of Earth system models exhibits large inter-model differences in the simulated climate of the Arctic and subarctic zone. We used an adapted version of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) Earth System Model to show that differences in the representation of the soil hydrology in permafrost-affected regions could help explain a large part of this inter-model spread and have pronounced impacts on important elements of Earth systems as far to the south as the tropics.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
David Docquier, Stéphane Vannitsem, and Alessio Bellucci
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 577–591, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-577-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-577-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The climate system is strongly regulated by interactions between the ocean and atmosphere. However, many uncertainties remain in the understanding of these interactions. Our analysis uses a relatively novel approach to quantify causal links between the ocean surface and lower atmosphere based on satellite observations. We find that both the ocean and atmosphere influence each other but with varying intensity depending on the region, demonstrating the power of causal methods.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Laura C. Jackson, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, Katinka Bellomo, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Helmuth Haak, Aixue Hu, Johann Jungclaus, Warren Lee, Virna L. Meccia, Oleg Saenko, Andrew Shao, and Didier Swingedouw
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1975–1995, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has an important impact on the climate. There are theories that freshening of the ocean might cause the AMOC to cross a tipping point (TP) beyond which recovery is difficult; however, it is unclear whether TPs exist in global climate models. Here, we outline a set of experiments designed to explore AMOC tipping points and sensitivity to additional freshwater input as part of the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project (NAHosMIP).
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jesse R. Farmer, Katherine J. Keller, Robert K. Poirier, Gary S. Dwyer, Morgan F. Schaller, Helen K. Coxall, Matt O'Regan, and Thomas M. Cronin
Clim. Past, 19, 555–578, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-555-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-555-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Oxygen isotopes are used to date marine sediments via similar large-scale ocean patterns over glacial cycles. However, the Arctic Ocean exhibits a different isotope pattern, creating uncertainty in the timing of past Arctic climate change. We find that the Arctic Ocean experienced large local oxygen isotope changes over glacial cycles. We attribute this to a breakdown of stratification during ice ages that allowed for a unique low isotope value to characterize the ice age Arctic Ocean.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kasia K. Śliwińska, Helen K. Coxall, David K. Hutchinson, Diederik Liebrand, Stefan Schouten, and Agatha M. de Boer
Clim. Past, 19, 123–140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-123-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-123-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We provide a sea surface temperature record from the Labrador Sea (ODP Site 647) based on organic geochemical proxies across the late Eocene and early Oligocene. Our study reveals heterogenic cooling of the Atlantic. The cooling of the North Atlantic is difficult to reconcile with the active Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We discuss possible explanations like uncertainty in the data, paleogeography and atmospheric CO2 boundary conditions, model weaknesses, and AMOC activity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Julia E. Weiffenbach, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Henk A. Dijkstra, Anna S. von der Heydt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Zixuan Han, Alan M. Haywood, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Julia C. Tindall, Charles J. R. Williams, Qiong Zhang, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 19, 61–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-61-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We study the behavior of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the mid-Pliocene. The mid-Pliocene was about 3 million years ago and had a similar CO2 concentration to today. We show that the stronger AMOC during this period relates to changes in geography and that this has a significant influence on ocean temperatures and heat transported northwards by the Atlantic Ocean. Understanding the behavior of the mid-Pliocene AMOC can help us to learn more about our future climate.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jörg Schwinger, Ali Asaadi, Norman Julius Steinert, and Hanna Lee
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1641–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We test whether climate change can be partially reversed if CO2 is removed from the atmosphere to compensate for too large past and near-term emissions by using idealized model simulations of overshoot pathways. On a timescale of 100 years, we find a high degree of reversibility if the overshoot size remains small, and we do not find tipping points even for intense overshoots. We caution that current Earth system models are most likely not able to skilfully model tipping points in ecosystems.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marina Martínez Montero, Michel Crucifix, Victor Couplet, Nuria Brede, and Nicola Botta
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 8059–8084, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present SURFER, a lightweight model that links CO2 emissions and geoengineering to ocean acidification and sea level rise from glaciers, ocean thermal expansion and Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The ice sheet module adequately describes the tipping points of both Greenland and Antarctica. SURFER is understandable, fast, accurate up to several thousands of years, capable of emulating results obtained by state of the art models and well suited for policy analyses.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Johannes Lohmann and Anders Svensson
Clim. Past, 18, 2021–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2021-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2021-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Major volcanic eruptions are known to cause considerable short-term impacts on the global climate. Their influence on long-term climate variability and regime shifts is less well-understood. Here we show that very large, bipolar eruptions occurred more frequently than expected by chance just before abrupt climate change events in the last glacial period (Dansgaard–Oeschger events). Thus, such large eruptions may in some cases act as short-term triggers for abrupt regime shifts of the climate.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mateo Duque-Villegas, Martin Claussen, Victor Brovkin, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 18, 1897–1914, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1897-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we quantify contributions of the Earth's orbit, greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ice sheets to the strength of Saharan greening during late Quaternary African humid periods (AHPs). Orbital forcing is found as the dominant factor, having a critical threshold and accounting for most of the changes in the vegetation response. However, results suggest that GHGs may influence the orbital threshold and thus may play a pivotal role for future AHPs.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Paul N. Pearson, Eleanor John, Bridget S. Wade, Simon D'haenens, and Caroline H. Lear
J. Micropalaeontol., 41, 107–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/jm-41-107-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/jm-41-107-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The microscopic shells of planktonic foraminifera accumulate on the sea floor over millions of years, providing a rich archive for understanding the history of the oceans. We examined an extinct group that flourished between about 63 and 32 million years ago using scanning electron microscopy and show that they were covered with needle-like spines in life. This has implications for analytical methods that we use to determine past seawater temperature and acidity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Alexander Robinson, and Neil R. Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5905–5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we present the climate component of the newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X. It has a horizontal resolution of 5°x5° and is designed to simulate the evolution of the Earth system on temporal scales ranging from decades to >100 000 years. CLIMBER-X is available as open-source code and is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the climate.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maria Zeitz, Jan M. Haacker, Jonathan F. Donges, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1077–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1077-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet under global warming is crucial. Here, using PISM, we study how the interplay of feedbacks between the ice sheet, the atmosphere and solid Earth affects the long-term response of the Greenland Ice Sheet under constant warming. Our findings suggest four distinct dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet on the route to destabilization under global warming – from recovery via quasi-periodic oscillations in ice volume to ice sheet collapse.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Amber Boot, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1041–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1041-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1041-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric pCO2 of the past shows large variability on different timescales. We focus on the effect of the strength of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on this variability and on the AMOC–pCO2 relationship. We find that climatic boundary conditions and the representation of biology in our model are most important for this relationship. Under certain conditions, we find internal oscillations, which can be relevant for atmospheric pCO2 variability during glacial cycles.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Adam William Bateson, Daniel L. Feltham, David Schröder, Yanan Wang, Byongjun Hwang, Jeff K. Ridley, and Yevgeny Aksenov
The Cryosphere, 16, 2565–2593, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2565-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2565-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical models are used to understand the mechanisms that drive the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover. The sea ice cover is formed of pieces of ice called floes. Several recent studies have proposed variable floe size models to replace the standard model assumption of a fixed floe size. In this study we show the need to include floe fragmentation processes in these variable floe size models and demonstrate that model design can determine the impact of floe size on size ice evolution.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stefan Mulitza, Torsten Bickert, Helen C. Bostock, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Barbara Donner, Aline Govin, Naomi Harada, Enqing Huang, Heather Johnstone, Henning Kuhnert, Michael Langner, Frank Lamy, Lester Lembke-Jene, Lorraine Lisiecki, Jean Lynch-Stieglitz, Lars Max, Mahyar Mohtadi, Gesine Mollenhauer, Juan Muglia, Dirk Nürnberg, André Paul, Carsten Rühlemann, Janne Repschläger, Rajeev Saraswat, Andreas Schmittner, Elisabeth L. Sikes, Robert F. Spielhagen, and Ralf Tiedemann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2553–2611, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Stable isotope ratios of foraminiferal shells from deep-sea sediments preserve key information on the variability of ocean circulation and ice volume. We present the first global atlas of harmonized raw downcore oxygen and carbon isotope ratios of various planktonic and benthic foraminiferal species. The atlas is a foundation for the analyses of the history of Earth system components, for finding future coring sites, and for teaching marine stratigraphy and paleoceanography.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Tanja Schlemm, Johannes Feldmann, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 16, 1979–1996, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1979-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Marine cliff instability, if it exists, could dominate Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise. It is likely to speed up with ice thickness and thus would accelerate in most parts of Antarctica. Here, we investigate a possible mechanism that might stop cliff instability through cloaking by ice mélange. It is only a first step, but it shows that embayment geometry is, in principle, able to stop marine cliff instability in most parts of West Antarctica.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Johannes Feldmann, Ronja Reese, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 16, 1927–1940, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1927-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1927-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We use a numerical model to simulate the flow of a simplified, buttressed Antarctic-type outlet glacier with an attached ice shelf. We find that after a few years of perturbation such a glacier responds much stronger to melting under the ice-shelf shear margins than to melting in the central fast streaming part of the ice shelf. This study explains the underlying physical mechanism which might gain importance in the future if melt rates under the Antarctic ice shelves continue to increase.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nora Farina Specht, Martin Claussen, and Thomas Kleinen
Clim. Past, 18, 1035–1046, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1035-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Palaeoenvironmental records only provide a fragmentary picture of the lake and wetland extent in North Africa during the mid-Holocene. Therefore, we investigate the possible range of mid-Holocene precipitation changes caused by an estimated small and maximum lake extent and a maximum wetland extent. Results show a particularly strong monsoon precipitation response to lakes and wetlands over the Western Sahara and an increased monsoon precipitation when replacing lakes with vegetated wetlands.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Steve Delhaye, Thierry Fichefet, François Massonnet, David Docquier, Rym Msadek, Svenya Chripko, Christopher Roberts, Sarah Keeley, and Retish Senan
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 555–573, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
It is unclear how the atmosphere will respond to a retreat of summer Arctic sea ice. Much attention has been paid so far to weather extremes at mid-latitude and in winter. Here we focus on the changes in extremes in surface air temperature and precipitation over the Arctic regions in summer during and following abrupt sea ice retreats. We find that Arctic sea ice loss clearly shifts the extremes in surface air temperature and precipitation over terrestrial regions surrounding the Arctic Ocean.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Carolien M. H. van der Weijst, Josse Winkelhorst, Wesley de Nooijer, Anna von der Heydt, Gert-Jan Reichart, Francesca Sangiorgi, and Appy Sluijs
Clim. Past, 18, 961–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-961-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-961-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A hypothesized link between Pliocene (5.3–2.5 million years ago) global climate and tropical thermocline depth is currently only backed up by data from the Pacific Ocean. In our paper, we present temperature, salinity, and thermocline records from the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Surprisingly, the Pliocene thermocline evolution was remarkably different in the Atlantic and Pacific. We need to reevaluate the mechanisms that drive thermocline depth, and how these are tied to global climate change.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Michael A. Kliphuis, Arthur M. Oldeman, and Julia E. Weiffenbach
Clim. Past, 18, 657–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-657-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-657-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Pliocene was a period during which atmospheric CO2 was similar to today (i.e. ~ 400 ppm). We present the results of model simulations carried out within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) using the CESM 1.0.5. We find a climate that is much warmer than today, with augmented polar warming, increased precipitation, and strongly reduced sea ice cover. In addition, several leading modes of variability in temperature show an altered behaviour.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Stiig Wilkenskjeld, Frederieke Miesner, Paul P. Overduin, Matteo Puglini, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 16, 1057–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Thawing permafrost releases carbon to the atmosphere, enhancing global warming. Part of the permafrost soils have been flooded by rising sea levels since the last ice age, becoming subsea permafrost (SSPF). The SSPF is less studied than the part on land. In this study we use a global model to obtain rates of thawing of SSPF under different future climate scenarios until the year 3000. After the year 2100 the scenarios strongly diverge, closely connected to the eventual disappearance of sea ice.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jiamei Lin, Anders Svensson, Christine S. Hvidberg, Johannes Lohmann, Steffen Kristiansen, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Jørgen Peder Steffensen, Sune Olander Rasmussen, Eliza Cook, Helle Astrid Kjær, Bo M. Vinther, Hubertus Fischer, Thomas Stocker, Michael Sigl, Matthias Bigler, Mirko Severi, Rita Traversi, and Robert Mulvaney
Clim. Past, 18, 485–506, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-485-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-485-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We employ acidity records from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores to estimate the emission strength, frequency and climatic forcing for large volcanic eruptions from the last half of the last glacial period. A total of 25 volcanic eruptions are found to be larger than any eruption in the last 2500 years, and we identify more eruptions than obtained from geological evidence. Towards the end of the glacial period, there is a notable increase in volcanic activity observed for Greenland.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Peter D. Nooteboom, Peter K. Bijl, Christian Kehl, Erik van Sebille, Martin Ziegler, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 357–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-357-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-357-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Having descended through the water column, microplankton in ocean sediments represents the ocean surface environment and is used as an archive of past and present surface oceanographic conditions. However, this microplankton is advected by turbulent ocean currents during its sinking journey. We use simulations of sinking particles to define ocean bottom provinces and detect these provinces in datasets of sedimentary microplankton, which has implications for palaeoclimate reconstructions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maria Zeitz, Ronja Reese, Johanna Beckmann, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 5739–5764, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5739-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5739-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
With the increasing melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which contributes to sea level rise, the surface of the ice darkens. The dark surfaces absorb more radiation and thus experience increased melt, resulting in the melt–albedo feedback. Using a simple surface melt model, we estimate that this positive feedback contributes to an additional 60 % ice loss in a high-warming scenario and additional 90 % ice loss for moderate warming. Albedo changes are important for Greenland’s future ice loss.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Zixuan Han, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Ran Feng, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther C. Brady, Nan Rosenbloom, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Jianbo Cheng, Qin Wen, and Natalie J. Burls
Clim. Past, 17, 2537–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2537-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the potential processes responsible for large-scale hydrological cycle changes in a warmer climate is of great importance. Our study implies that an imbalance in interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate cycling. Moreover, a robust westward shift in the Pacific Walker circulation can moisten the northern Indian Ocean.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
István Dunkl, Aaron Spring, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1413–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1413-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The variability in atmospheric CO2 is largely controlled by terrestrial carbon fluxes. These land–atmosphere fluxes are predictable for around 2 years, but the mechanisms providing the predictability are not well understood. By decomposing the predictability of carbon fluxes into individual contributors we were able to explain the spatial and seasonal patterns and the interannual variability of CO2 flux predictability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Arthur M. Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Julia C. Tindall, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Alice R. Booth, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Mark A. Chandler, Camille Contoux, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Youichi Kamae, Qiang Li, Xiangyu Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Daniel J. Lunt, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Gabriel M. Pontes, Gilles Ramstein, Linda E. Sohl, Christian Stepanek, Ning Tan, Qiong Zhang, Zhongshi Zhang, Ilana Wainer, and Charles J. R. Williams
Clim. Past, 17, 2427–2450, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2427-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we have studied the behaviour of El Niño events in the mid-Pliocene, a period of around 3 million years ago, using a collection of 17 climate models. It is an interesting period to study, as it saw similar atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to the present day. We find that the El Niño events were less strong in the mid-Pliocene simulations, when compared to pre-industrial climate. Our results could help to interpret El Niño behaviour in future climate projections.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Aaron Spring, István Dunkl, Hongmei Li, Victor Brovkin, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1139–1167, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1139-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical carbon cycle prediction models usually do not start from observed carbon states due to sparse observations. Instead, only physical climate is reconstructed, assuming that the carbon cycle follows indirectly. Here, we test in an idealized framework how well this indirect and direct reconstruction with perfect observations works. We find that indirect reconstruction works quite well and that improvements from the direct method are limited, strengthening the current indirect use.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jonathan F. Donges, Wolfgang Lucht, Sarah E. Cornell, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Steven J. Lade, and Maja Schlüter
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1115–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021, 2021
Samuel Tiéfolo Diabaté, Didier Swingedouw, Joël Jean-Marie Hirschi, Aurélie Duchez, Philip J. Leadbitter, Ivan D. Haigh, and Gerard D. McCarthy
Ocean Sci., 17, 1449–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1449-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1449-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio are major currents of the North Atlantic and North Pacific, respectively. They transport warm water northward and are key components of the Earth climate system. For this study, we looked at how they affect the sea level of the coasts of Japan, the USA and Canada. We found that the inshore sea level
co-varies with the north-to-south shifts of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio. In the paper, we discuss the physical mechanisms that could explain the agreement.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jina Jeong, Jonathan Barichivich, Philippe Peylin, Vanessa Haverd, Matthew Joseph McGrath, Nicolas Vuichard, Michael Neil Evans, Flurin Babst, and Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5891–5913, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5891-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5891-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We have proposed and evaluated the use of four benchmarks that leverage tree-ring width observations to provide more nuanced verification targets for land-surface models (LSMs), which currently lack a long-term benchmark for forest ecosystem functioning. Using relatively unbiased European biomass network datasets, we identify the extent to which presumed biases in the much larger International Tree-Ring Data Bank might degrade the validation of LSMs.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
André Jüling, Anna von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Ocean Sci., 17, 1251–1271, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1251-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1251-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
On top of forced changes such as human-caused global warming, unforced climate variability exists. Most multidecadal variability (MV) involves the oceans, but current climate models use non-turbulent, coarse-resolution oceans. We investigate the effect of resolving important turbulent ocean features on MV. We find that ocean heat content, ocean–atmosphere heat flux, and global mean surface temperature MV is more pronounced in the higher-resolution model relative to higher-frequency variability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ellen Berntell, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, William Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, Charles J. R. Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Esther C. Brady
Clim. Past, 17, 1777–1794, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1777-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3.2 Ma) is often considered an analogue for near-future climate projections, and model results from the PlioMIP2 ensemble show an increase of rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region compared to pre-industrial conditions. Though previous studies of future projections show a west–east drying–wetting contrast over the Sahel, these results indicate a uniform rainfall increase over the Sahel in warm climates characterized by increased greenhouse gas forcing.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Amy Solomon, Céline Heuzé, Benjamin Rabe, Sheldon Bacon, Laurent Bertino, Patrick Heimbach, Jun Inoue, Doroteaciro Iovino, Ruth Mottram, Xiangdong Zhang, Yevgeny Aksenov, Ronan McAdam, An Nguyen, Roshin P. Raj, and Han Tang
Ocean Sci., 17, 1081–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean plays a critical role in the global climate system by impacting ocean circulations, stratification, mixing, and emergent regimes. In this review paper we assess how Arctic Ocean freshwater changed in the 2010s relative to the 2000s. Estimates from observations and reanalyses show a qualitative stabilization in the 2010s due to a compensation between a freshening of the Beaufort Gyre and a reduction in freshwater in the Amerasian and Eurasian basins.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Johannes Lohmann, Daniele Castellana, Peter D. Ditlevsen, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 819–835, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Tipping of one climate subsystem could trigger a cascade of subsequent tipping points and even global-scale climate tipping. Sequential shifts of atmosphere, sea ice and ocean have been recorded in proxy archives of past climate change. Based on this we propose a conceptual model for abrupt climate changes of the last glacial. Here, rate-induced tipping enables tipping cascades in systems with relatively weak coupling. An early warning signal is proposed that may detect such a tipping.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Moritz Kreuzer, Ronja Reese, Willem Nicholas Huiskamp, Stefan Petri, Torsten Albrecht, Georg Feulner, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3697–3714, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present the technical implementation of a coarse-resolution coupling between an ice sheet model and an ocean model that allows one to simulate ice–ocean interactions at timescales from centuries to millennia. As ice shelf cavities cannot be resolved in the ocean model at coarse resolution, we bridge the gap using an sub-shelf cavity module. It is shown that the framework is computationally efficient, conserves mass and energy, and can produce a stable coupled state under present-day forcing.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, Jürgen Kurths, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In the Earth system, climate tipping elements exist that can undergo qualitative changes in response to environmental perturbations. If triggered, this would result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. We quantify the risk of tipping cascades using a conceptual but fully dynamic network approach. We uncover that the risk of tipping cascades under global warming scenarios is enormous and find that the continental ice sheets are most likely to initiate these failures.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
André Jüling, Xun Zhang, Daniele Castellana, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Ocean Sci., 17, 729–754, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-729-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-729-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate how the freshwater budget of the Atlantic changes under climate change, which has implications for the stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. We compare the effect of ocean model resolution in a climate model and find many similarities between the simulations, enhancing trust in the current generation of climate models. However, ocean biases are reduced in the strongly eddying simulation, and significant local freshwater budget differences exist.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sebastian H. R. Rosier, Ronja Reese, Jonathan F. Donges, Jan De Rydt, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 15, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Pine Island Glacier has contributed more to sea-level rise over the past decades than any other glacier in Antarctica. Ice-flow modelling studies have shown that it can undergo periods of rapid mass loss, but no study has shown that these future changes could cross a tipping point and therefore be effectively irreversible. Here, we assess the stability of Pine Island Glacier, quantifying the changes in ocean temperatures required to cross future tipping points using statistical methods.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Philipp de Vrese, Tobias Stacke, Thomas Kleinen, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 15, 1097–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
With large amounts of carbon stored in frozen soils and a highly energy-limited vegetation the Arctic is very sensitive to changes in climate. Here our simulations with the land surface model JSBACH reveal a number of offsetting factors moderating the Arctic's net response to global warming. More importantly we find that the effects of climate change may not be fully reversible on decadal timescales, leading to substantially different CH4 emissions depending on whether the Arctic warms or cools.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Zhongshi Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Chuncheng Guo, Odd Helge Otterå, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Ran Feng, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Esther Brady, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Julia E. Weiffenbach, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Alan M. Haywood, Stephen J. Hunter, Julia C. Tindall, Charles Williams, Daniel J. Lunt, Wing-Le Chan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 17, 529–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-529-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important topic in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project. Previous studies have suggested a much stronger AMOC during the Pliocene than today. However, our current multi-model intercomparison shows large model spreads and model–data discrepancies, which can not support the previous hypothesis. Our study shows good consistency with future projections of the AMOC.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ann Keen, Ed Blockley, David A. Bailey, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Mitchell Bushuk, Steve Delhaye, David Docquier, Daniel Feltham, François Massonnet, Siobhan O'Farrell, Leandro Ponsoni, José M. Rodriguez, David Schroeder, Neil Swart, Takahiro Toyoda, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Martin Vancoppenolle, and Klaus Wyser
The Cryosphere, 15, 951–982, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-951-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We compare the mass budget of the Arctic sea ice in a number of the latest climate models. New output has been defined that allows us to compare the processes of sea ice growth and loss in a more detailed way than has previously been possible. We find that that the models are strikingly similar in terms of the major processes causing the annual growth and loss of Arctic sea ice and that the budget terms respond in a broadly consistent way as the climate warms during the 21st century.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
David K. Hutchinson, Helen K. Coxall, Daniel J. Lunt, Margret Steinthorsdottir, Agatha M. de Boer, Michiel Baatsen, Anna von der Heydt, Matthew Huber, Alan T. Kennedy-Asser, Lutz Kunzmann, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Caroline H. Lear, Karolin Moraweck, Paul N. Pearson, Emanuela Piga, Matthew J. Pound, Ulrich Salzmann, Howie D. Scher, Willem P. Sijp, Kasia K. Śliwińska, Paul A. Wilson, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 17, 269–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-269-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-269-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Eocene–Oligocene transition was a major climate cooling event from a largely ice-free world to the first major glaciation of Antarctica, approximately 34 million years ago. This paper reviews observed changes in temperature, CO2 and ice sheets from marine and land-based records at this time. We present a new model–data comparison of this transition and find that CO2-forced cooling provides the best explanation of the observed global temperature changes.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniel J. Lunt, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, David K. Hutchinson, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Polina Morozova, Igor Niezgodzki, Sebastian Steinig, Zhongshi Zhang, Jiang Zhu, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Eleni Anagnostou, Agatha M. de Boer, Helen K. Coxall, Yannick Donnadieu, Gavin Foster, Gordon N. Inglis, Gregor Knorr, Petra M. Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Gerrit Lohmann, Christopher J. Poulsen, Pierre Sepulchre, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny M. Volodin, Tom Dunkley Jones, Christopher J. Hollis, Matthew Huber, and Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
Clim. Past, 17, 203–227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-203-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the first modelling results from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP), in which we focus on the early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO, 50 million years ago). We show that, in contrast to previous work, at least three models (CESM, GFDL, and NorESM) produce climate states that are consistent with proxy indicators of global mean temperature and polar amplification, and they achieve this at a CO2 concentration that is consistent with the CO2 proxy record.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Michiel Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Matthew Huber, Michael A. Kliphuis, Peter K. Bijl, Appy Sluijs, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Clim. Past, 16, 2573–2597, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2573-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2573-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Warm climates of the deep past have proven to be challenging to reconstruct with the same numerical models used for future predictions. We present results of CESM simulations for the middle to late Eocene (∼ 38 Ma), in which we managed to match the available indications of temperature well. With these results we can now look into regional features and the response to external changes to ultimately better understand the climate when it is in such a warm state.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Johannes Lohmann and Anders Svensson
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-160, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-160, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Major volcanic eruptions are known to cause considerable short-term impacts on the global climate. Their influence on long-term climate variability and regime shifts is less well understood. Here we show that very large, bipolar eruptions occurred more frequently than expected by chance just before abrupt climate change events in the last glacial period (the Dansgaard-Oeschger events). Thus, such large eruptions may in some cases act as short-term triggers to abrupt regime shifts of the climate.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Wesley de Nooijer, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Qiang Zhang, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Stephen J. Hunter, Harry J. Dowsett, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Linda E. Sohl, Mark A. Chandler, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing-Le Chan, Youichi Kamae, and Chris M. Brierley
Clim. Past, 16, 2325–2341, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2325-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The simulations for the past climate can inform us about the performance of climate models in different climate scenarios. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), when the CO2 level was comparable to today. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in the model simulations and imply that we must be careful when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alan M. Haywood, Julia C. Tindall, Harry J. Dowsett, Aisling M. Dolan, Kevin M. Foley, Stephen J. Hunter, Daniel J. Hill, Wing-Le Chan, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Christian Stepanek, Gerrit Lohmann, Deepak Chandan, W. Richard Peltier, Ning Tan, Camille Contoux, Gilles Ramstein, Xiangyu Li, Zhongshi Zhang, Chuncheng Guo, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Qiong Zhang, Qiang Li, Youichi Kamae, Mark A. Chandler, Linda E. Sohl, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Ran Feng, Esther C. Brady, Anna S. von der Heydt, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, and Daniel J. Lunt
Clim. Past, 16, 2095–2123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The large-scale features of middle Pliocene climate from the 16 models of PlioMIP Phase 2 are presented. The PlioMIP2 ensemble average was ~ 3.2 °C warmer and experienced ~ 7 % more precipitation than the pre-industrial era, although there are large regional variations. PlioMIP2 broadly agrees with a new proxy dataset of Pliocene sea surface temperatures. Combining PlioMIP2 and proxy data suggests that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would increase globally averaged temperature by 2.6–4.8 °C.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maria Zeitz, Anders Levermann, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 14, 3537–3550, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The flow of ice drives mass losses in the large ice sheets. Sea-level rise projections rely on ice-sheet models, solving the physics of ice flow and melt. Unfortunately the parameters in the physics of flow are uncertain. Here we show, in an idealized setup, that these uncertainties can double flow-driven mass losses within the possible range of parameters. It is possible that this uncertainty carries over to realistic sea-level rise projections.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Taraka Davies-Barnard, Johannes Meyerholt, Sönke Zaehle, Pierre Friedlingstein, Victor Brovkin, Yuanchao Fan, Rosie A. Fisher, Chris D. Jones, Hanna Lee, Daniele Peano, Benjamin Smith, David Wårlind, and Andy J. Wiltshire
Biogeosciences, 17, 5129–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5129-2020, 2020
Svetlana Jevrejeva, Lucy Bricheno, Jennifer Brown, David Byrne, Michela De Dominicis, Andy Matthews, Stefanie Rynders, Hindumathi Palanisamy, and Judith Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2609–2626, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2609-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2609-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the role of waves, storm surges and sea level rise for the Caribbean region with a focus on the eastern Caribbean islands. We simulate past extreme events, suggesting a storm surge might reach 1.5 m and coastal wave heights up to 12 m offshore and up to 5 m near the coast of St Vincent. We provide sea level projections of up to 2.2 m by 2100. Our work provides quantitative evidence for policy-makers, scientists and local communities to actively protect against climate change.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Heiko Goelzer, William H. Lipscomb, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Alice Barthel, Reinhard Calov, Richard Cullather, Christophe Dumas, Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter R. Leguy, Daniel P. Lowry, Chistopher M. Little, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, and Thomas Zwinger
The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ronja Reese, Anders Levermann, Torsten Albrecht, Hélène Seroussi, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 14, 3097–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We compare 21st century projections of Antarctica's future sea-level contribution simulated with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model submitted to ISMIP6 with projections following the LARMIP-2 protocol based on the same model configuration. We find that (1) a preceding historic simulation increases mass loss by 5–50 % and that (2) the order of magnitude difference in the ice loss in our experiments following the two protocols can be explained by the translation of ocean forcing to sub-shelf melting.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Erin L. McClymont, Heather L. Ford, Sze Ling Ho, Julia C. Tindall, Alan M. Haywood, Montserrat Alonso-Garcia, Ian Bailey, Melissa A. Berke, Kate Littler, Molly O. Patterson, Benjamin Petrick, Francien Peterse, A. Christina Ravelo, Bjørg Risebrobakken, Stijn De Schepper, George E. A. Swann, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Jessica E. Tierney, Carolien van der Weijst, Sarah White, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Esther C. Brady, Wing-Le Chan, Deepak Chandan, Ran Feng, Chuncheng Guo, Anna S. von der Heydt, Stephen Hunter, Xiangyi Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, W. Richard Peltier, Christian Stepanek, and Zhongshi Zhang
Clim. Past, 16, 1599–1615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1599-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the sea-surface temperature response to an interval of climate ~ 3.2 million years ago, when CO2 concentrations were similar to today and the near future. Our geological data and climate models show that global mean sea-surface temperatures were 2.3 to 3.2 ºC warmer than pre-industrial climate, that the mid-latitudes and high latitudes warmed more than the tropics, and that the warming was particularly enhanced in the North Atlantic Ocean.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ramdane Alkama, Patrick C. Taylor, Lorea Garcia-San Martin, Herve Douville, Gregory Duveiller, Giovanni Forzieri, Didier Swingedouw, and Alessandro Cescatti
The Cryosphere, 14, 2673–2686, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2673-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2673-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The amount of solar energy absorbed by Earth is believed to strongly depend on clouds. Here, we investigate this relationship using satellite data and 32 climate models, showing that this relationship holds everywhere except over polar seas, where an increased reflection by clouds corresponds to an increase in absorbed solar radiation at the surface. This interplay between clouds and sea ice reduces by half the increase of net radiation at the surface that follows the sea ice retreat.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Carolien Maria Hendrina van der Weijst, Josse Winkelhorst, Anna von der Heydt, Gert-Jan Reichart, Francesca Sangiorgi, and Appy Sluijs
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-105, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-105, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Vivek K. Arora, Anna Katavouta, Richard G. Williams, Chris D. Jones, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Friedlingstein, Jörg Schwinger, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, James R. Christian, Christine Delire, Rosie A. Fisher, Tomohiro Hajima, Tatiana Ilyina, Emilie Joetzjer, Michio Kawamiya, Charles D. Koven, John P. Krasting, Rachel M. Law, David M. Lawrence, Andrew Lenton, Keith Lindsay, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry F. Tjiputra, Andy Wiltshire, Tongwen Wu, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 4173–4222, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4173-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Since the preindustrial period, land and ocean have taken up about half of the carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans. Comparison of different earth system models with the carbon cycle allows us to assess how carbon uptake by land and ocean differs among models. This yields an estimate of uncertainty in our understanding of how land and ocean respond to increasing atmospheric CO2. This paper summarizes results from two such model intercomparison projects that use an idealized scenario.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Thomas A. M. Pugh, Tim Rademacher, Sarah L. Shafer, Jörg Steinkamp, Jonathan Barichivich, Brian Beckage, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Harper, Jens Heinke, Kazuya Nishina, Anja Rammig, Hisashi Sato, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Thomas Hickler, Markus Kautz, Benjamin Quesada, Benjamin Smith, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 17, 3961–3989, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. Estimates from six contemporary models found this time to range from 12.2 to 23.5 years for the global mean for 1985–2014. Future projections do not give consistent results, but 13 model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce large current uncertainty.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Veronika Eyring, Lisa Bock, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Omar Bellprat, Björn Brötz, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nuno Carvalhais, Irene Cionni, Nicola Cortesi, Bas Crezee, Edouard L. Davin, Paolo Davini, Kevin Debeire, Lee de Mora, Clara Deser, David Docquier, Paul Earnshaw, Carsten Ehbrecht, Bettina K. Gier, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Paul Goodman, Stefan Hagemann, Steven Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Alasdair Hunter, Christopher Kadow, Stephan Kindermann, Sujan Koirala, Nikolay Koldunov, Quentin Lejeune, Valerio Lembo, Tomas Lovato, Valerio Lucarini, François Massonnet, Benjamin Müller, Amarjiit Pandde, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Adam Phillips, Valeriu Predoi, Joellen Russell, Alistair Sellar, Federico Serva, Tobias Stacke, Ranjini Swaminathan, Verónica Torralba, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, Katja Weigel, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3383–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool designed to improve comprehensive and routine evaluation of earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). It has undergone rapid development since the first release in 2016 and is now a well-tested tool that provides end-to-end provenance tracking to ensure reproducibility.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Leandro Ponsoni, François Massonnet, David Docquier, Guillian Van Achter, and Thierry Fichefet
The Cryosphere, 14, 2409–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2409-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2409-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The continuous melting of the Arctic sea ice observed in the last decades has a significant impact at global and regional scales. To understand the amplitude and consequences of this impact, the monitoring of the total sea ice volume is crucial. However, in situ monitoring in such a harsh environment is hard to perform and far too expensive. This study shows that four well-placed sampling locations are sufficient to explain about 70 % of the inter-annual changes in the pan-Arctic sea ice volume.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kirsty M. Edgar, Steven M. Bohaty, Helen K. Coxall, Paul R. Bown, Sietske J. Batenburg, Caroline H. Lear, and Paul N. Pearson
J. Micropalaeontol., 39, 117–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/jm-39-117-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/jm-39-117-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We identify the first continuous carbonate-bearing sediment record from the tropical ocean that spans the entirety of the global warming event, the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum, ca. 40 Ma. We determine significant mismatches between middle Eocene calcareous microfossil datums from the tropical Pacific Ocean and established low-latitude zonation schemes. We highlight the potential of ODP Site 865 for future investigations into environmental and biotic changes throughout the early Paleogene.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marielle Saunois, Ann R. Stavert, Ben Poulter, Philippe Bousquet, Josep G. Canadell, Robert B. Jackson, Peter A. Raymond, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Sander Houweling, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Ciais, Vivek K. Arora, David Bastviken, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Kimberly M. Carlson, Mark Carrol, Simona Castaldi, Naveen Chandra, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick M. Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles L. Curry, Giuseppe Etiope, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Michaela I. Hegglin, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Gustaf Hugelius, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Katherine M. Jensen, Fortunat Joos, Thomas Kleinen, Paul B. Krummel, Ray L. Langenfelds, Goulven G. Laruelle, Licheng Liu, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe McNorton, Paul A. Miller, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Vaishali Naik, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Simon O'Doherty, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, Pierre Regnier, William J. Riley, Judith A. Rosentreter, Arjo Segers, Isobel J. Simpson, Hao Shi, Steven J. Smith, L. Paul Steele, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Francesco N. Tubiello, Aki Tsuruta, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Thomas S. Weber, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray F. Weiss, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Yi Yin, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Zhen Zhang, Yuanhong Zhao, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1561–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1561-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. We have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. This is the second version of the review dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down and bottom-up estimates.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Pierre Sepulchre, Arnaud Caubel, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Laurent Bopp, Olivier Boucher, Pascale Braconnot, Patrick Brockmann, Anne Cozic, Yannick Donnadieu, Jean-Louis Dufresne, Victor Estella-Perez, Christian Ethé, Frédéric Fluteau, Marie-Alice Foujols, Guillaume Gastineau, Josefine Ghattas, Didier Hauglustaine, Frédéric Hourdin, Masa Kageyama, Myriam Khodri, Olivier Marti, Yann Meurdesoif, Juliette Mignot, Anta-Clarisse Sarr, Jérôme Servonnat, Didier Swingedouw, Sophie Szopa, and Delphine Tardif
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3011–3053, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3011-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3011-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper describes IPSL-CM5A2, an Earth system model that can be integrated for long (several thousands of years) climate simulations. We describe the technical aspects, assess the model computing performance and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the model, by comparing pre-industrial and historical runs to the previous-generation model simulations and to observations. We also present a Cretaceous simulation as a case study to show how the model simulates deep-time paleoclimates.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matteo Puglini, Victor Brovkin, Pierre Regnier, and Sandra Arndt
Biogeosciences, 17, 3247–3275, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3247-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3247-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A reaction-transport model to assess the potential non-turbulent methane flux from the East Siberian Arctic sediments to water columns is applied here. We show that anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) is an efficient filter except for high values of sedimentation rate and advective flow, which enable considerable non-turbulent steady-state methane fluxes. Significant transient methane fluxes can also occur during the building-up phase of the AOM-performing biomass microbial community.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Marc Wiedermann, Johannes A. Kassel, Tim Kittel, Jakob J. Kolb, Till Kolster, Finn Müller-Hansen, Ilona M. Otto, Kilian B. Zimmerer, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 395–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present an open-source software framework for developing so-called
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
world–Earth modelsthat link physical, chemical and biological processes with social, economic and cultural processes to study the Earth system's future trajectories in the Anthropocene. Due to its modular structure, the software allows interdisciplinary studies of global change and sustainable development that combine stylized model components from Earth system science, climatology, economics, ecology and sociology.
Thomas Kleinen, Uwe Mikolajewicz, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 16, 575–595, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-575-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-575-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the changes in natural methane emissions between the Last Glacial Maximum and preindustrial periods with a methane-enabled version of MPI-ESM. We consider all natural sources of methane except for emissions from wild animals and geological sources. Changes are dominated by changes in tropical wetland emissions, high-latitude wetlands play a secondary role, and all other natural sources are of minor importance. We explain the changes in ice core methane by methane emissions only.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Camilo Melo-Aguilar, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Elena García-Bustamante, Norman Steinert, Johann H. Jungclaus, Jorge Navarro, and Pedro J. Roldán-Gómez
Clim. Past, 16, 453–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-453-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-453-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores potential sources of bias on borehole-based temperature reconstruction from both methodological and physical factors using pseudo-proxy experiments that consider ensembles of simulations from the Community Earth System Model. The results indicate that both methodological and physical factors may have an impact on the estimation of the recent temperature trends at different spatial scales. Internal variability arises also as an important issue influencing pseudo-proxy results.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Simon Michel, Didier Swingedouw, Marie Chavent, Pablo Ortega, Juliette Mignot, and Myriam Khodri
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 841–858, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-841-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-841-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Natural archives such as sediments, ice, tree rings or speleothems provide indirect observations of past climate at local and regional scales. In this paper, we provide a computational device to properly make evaluated reconstructions of climate indices using these paleo-data. It provides optimizing cross-validation algorithms and four regression methods that are applied to the reconstruction of the North Atlantic Oscillation index and compared in this study.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Gunnar Brandt, Rune Christiansen, Sarah E. Cornell, Normann Fomferra, Guido Kraemer, Jonas Peters, Paul Bodesheim, Gustau Camps-Valls, Jonathan F. Donges, Wouter Dorigo, Lina M. Estupinan-Suarez, Victor H. Gutierrez-Velez, Martin Gutwin, Martin Jung, Maria C. Londoño, Diego G. Miralles, Phillip Papastefanou, and Markus Reichstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 201–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The ever-growing availability of data streams on different subsystems of the Earth brings unprecedented scientific opportunities. However, researching a data-rich world brings novel challenges. We present the concept of
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Earth system data cubesto study the complex dynamics of multiple climate and ecosystem variables across space and time. Using a series of example studies, we highlight the potential of effectively considering the full multivariate nature of processes in the Earth system.
Torsten Albrecht, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 633–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-633-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A large ensemble of glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) was analyzed in which four relevant model parameters were systematically varied. These parameters were selected in a companion study and are associated with uncertainties in ice dynamics, climatic forcing, basal sliding and solid Earth deformation. For each ensemble member a statistical score is computed, which enables calibrating the model against both modern and geologic data.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Torsten Albrecht, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 599–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-599-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-599-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
During the last glacial cycles the Antarctic Ice Sheet experienced alternating climatic conditions and varying sea-level history. In response, changes in ice sheet volume and ice-covered area occurred, implying feedbacks on the global sea level. We ran model simulations of the ice sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) over the last two glacial cycles to evaluate the model's sensitivity to different choices of boundary conditions and parameters to gain confidence for future projections.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Pierre Sabatier, Marie Nicolle, Christine Piot, Christophe Colin, Maxime Debret, Didier Swingedouw, Yves Perrette, Marie-Charlotte Bellingery, Benjamin Chazeau, Anne-Lise Develle, Maxime Leblanc, Charlotte Skonieczny, Yoann Copard, Jean-Louis Reyss, Emmanuel Malet, Isabelle Jouffroy-Bapicot, Maëlle Kelner, Jérôme Poulenard, Julien Didier, Fabien Arnaud, and Boris Vannière
Clim. Past, 16, 283–298, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-283-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-283-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution multiproxy analysis of sediment core from a high-elevation lake on Corsica allows us to reconstruct past African dust inputs to the western Mediterranean area over the last 3 millennia. Millennial variations of Saharan dust input have been correlated with the long-term southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, while short-term variations were associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and total solar irradiance after and before 1070 cal BP, respectively.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Adam W. Bateson, Daniel L. Feltham, David Schröder, Lucia Hosekova, Jeff K. Ridley, and Yevgeny Aksenov
The Cryosphere, 14, 403–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-403-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-403-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic sea ice cover has been observed to be decreasing, particularly in summer. We use numerical models to gain insight into processes controlling its seasonal and decadal evolution. Sea ice is made of pieces of ice called floes. Previous models have set these floes to be the same size, which is not supported by observations. In this study we show that accounting for variable floe size reveals the importance of sea ice regions close to the open ocean in driving seasonal retreat of sea ice.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Gabriel J. Bowen, Brenden Fischer-Femal, Gert-Jan Reichart, Appy Sluijs, and Caroline H. Lear
Clim. Past, 16, 65–78, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-65-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-65-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Past climate conditions are reconstructed using indirect and incomplete geological, biological, and geochemical proxy data. We propose that such reconstructions are best obtained by statistical inversion of hierarchical models that represent how multi–proxy observations and calibration data are produced by variation of environmental conditions in time and/or space. These methods extract new information from traditional proxies and provide robust, comprehensive estimates of uncertainty.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Georgii A. Alexandrov, Victor A. Brovkin, Thomas Kleinen, and Zicheng Yu
Biogeosciences, 17, 47–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-47-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-47-2020, 2020
Christian Berndt, Sverre Planke, Damon Teagle, Ritske Huismans, Trond Torsvik, Joost Frieling, Morgan T. Jones, Dougal A. Jerram, Christian Tegner, Jan Inge Faleide, Helen Coxall, and Wei-Li Hong
Sci. Dril., 26, 69–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-26-69-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-26-69-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The northeast Atlantic encompasses archetypal examples of volcanic rifted margins. Twenty-five years after the last ODP leg on these volcanic margins, the reasons for excess melting are still disputed with at least three competing hypotheses being discussed. We are proposing a new drilling campaign that will constrain the timing, rates of volcanism, and vertical movements of rifted margins.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Johannes Lohmann and Peter D. Ditlevsen
Clim. Past, 15, 1771–1792, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1771-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1771-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Greenland ice core records show that the climate of the last glacial period was frequently interrupted by rapid warming events, followed by cooling episodes of vastly different duration. We fit a generic waveform to the noisy ice core record in order to extract a robust climate signal and empirically study what controls the amplitude and duration of the warmings and coolings. We find that cooling transitions are more predictable than warmings and are influenced by different climate forcings.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Johanna Beckmann, Mahé Perrette, Sebastian Beyer, Reinhard Calov, Matteo Willeit, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 13, 2281–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2281-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Submarine melting (SM) has been discussed as potentially triggering the recently observed retreat at outlet glaciers in Greenland. How much it may contribute in terms of future sea level rise (SLR) has not been quantified yet. When accounting for SM in our experiments, SLR contribution of 12 outlet glaciers increases by over 3-fold until the year 2100 under RCP8.5. Scaling up from 12 to all of Greenland's outlet glaciers increases future SLR contribution of Greenland by 50 %.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 501–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The concept of
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
emergent constraintsis a key method to reduce uncertainty in multi-model climate projections using historical simulations and observations. Here, we present an in-depth analysis of the applicability of the method and uncover possible limitations. Key limitations are a lack of comparability (temporal, spatial, and conceptual) between models and observations and the disagreement between models on system dynamics throughout different levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration.
James A. Menking, Edward J. Brook, Sarah A. Shackleton, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Michael N. Dyonisius, Vasilii Petrenko, Joseph R. McConnell, Rachael H. Rhodes, Thomas K. Bauska, Daniel Baggenstos, Shaun Marcott, and Stephen Barker
Clim. Past, 15, 1537–1556, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1537-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1537-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
An ice core from Taylor Glacier, Antarctica, spans a period ~ 70 000 years ago when Earth entered the last ice age. Chemical analyses of the ice and air bubbles allow for an independent determination of the ages of the ice and gas bubbles. The difference between the age of the ice and the bubbles at any given depth, called ∆age, is unusually high in the Taylor Glacier core compared to the Taylor Dome ice core situated to the south. This implies a dramatic accumulation gradient between the sites.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jamie D. Wilson, Stephen Barker, Neil R. Edwards, Philip B. Holden, and Andy Ridgwell
Biogeosciences, 16, 2923–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2923-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2923-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The remains of plankton rain down from the surface ocean to the deep ocean, acting to store CO2 in the deep ocean. We used a model of biology and ocean circulation to explore the importance of this process in different regions of the ocean. The amount of CO2 stored in the deep ocean is most sensitive to changes in the Southern Ocean. As plankton in the Southern Ocean are likely those most impacted by future climate change, the amount of CO2 they store in the deep ocean could also be affected.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christopher J. Hollis, Tom Dunkley Jones, Eleni Anagnostou, Peter K. Bijl, Marlow Julius Cramwinckel, Ying Cui, Gerald R. Dickens, Kirsty M. Edgar, Yvette Eley, David Evans, Gavin L. Foster, Joost Frieling, Gordon N. Inglis, Elizabeth M. Kennedy, Reinhard Kozdon, Vittoria Lauretano, Caroline H. Lear, Kate Littler, Lucas Lourens, A. Nele Meckler, B. David A. Naafs, Heiko Pälike, Richard D. Pancost, Paul N. Pearson, Ursula Röhl, Dana L. Royer, Ulrich Salzmann, Brian A. Schubert, Hannu Seebeck, Appy Sluijs, Robert P. Speijer, Peter Stassen, Jessica Tierney, Aradhna Tripati, Bridget Wade, Thomas Westerhold, Caitlyn Witkowski, James C. Zachos, Yi Ge Zhang, Matthew Huber, and Daniel J. Lunt
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3149–3206, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3149-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3149-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) is a model–data intercomparison of the early Eocene (around 55 million years ago), the last time that Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentrations exceeded 1000 ppm. Previously, we outlined the experimental design for climate model simulations. Here, we outline the methods used for compilation and analysis of climate proxy data. The resulting climate
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
atlaswill provide insights into the mechanisms that control past warm climate states.
Victor Brovkin, Stephan Lorenz, Thomas Raddatz, Tatiana Ilyina, Irene Stemmler, Matthew Toohey, and Martin Claussen
Biogeosciences, 16, 2543–2555, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Mechanisms of atmospheric CO2 growth by 20 ppm from 6000 BCE to the pre-industrial period are still uncertain. We apply the Earth system model MPI-ESM-LR for two transient simulations of the climate–carbon cycle. An additional process, e.g. carbonate accumulation on shelves, is required for consistency with ice-core CO2 data. Our simulations support the hypothesis that the ocean was a source of CO2 until the late Holocene when anthropogenic CO2 sources started to affect atmospheric CO2.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rodrigo da Costa Portilho-Ramos, Tainã Marcos Lima Pinho, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, and Cátia Fernandes Barbosa
Clim. Past, 15, 943–955, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-943-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-943-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Fossil microorganisms from the last glacial found in marine sediments collected off southern Brazil suggest that more productive austral summer upwelling and more frequent austral winter incursions of nutrient-rich waters from the Plata River boosted regional productivity year-round. While upwelling was more productive due to the higher silicon content from the Southern Ocean, more frequent riverine incursions were modulated by stronger alongshore southwesterly winds.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hélène Seroussi, Sophie Nowicki, Erika Simon, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Torsten Albrecht, Julien Brondex, Stephen Cornford, Christophe Dumas, Fabien Gillet-Chaulet, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Thomas Kleiner, Eric Larour, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Daniel Lowry, Matthias Mengel, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, Anthony J. Payne, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Thomas J. Reerink, Ronja Reese, Christian B. Rodehacke, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Andrew Shepherd, Sainan Sun, Johannes Sutter, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Tong Zhang
The Cryosphere, 13, 1441–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We compare a wide range of Antarctic ice sheet simulations with varying initialization techniques and model parameters to understand the role they play on the projected evolution of this ice sheet under simple scenarios. Results are improved compared to previous assessments and show that continued improvements in the representation of the floating ice around Antarctica are critical to reduce the uncertainty in the future ice sheet contribution to sea level rise.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 15, 335–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-335-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-335-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A simple but powerful method for the biomisation of plant functional type distributions is introduced and tested for six different dynamic global vegetation models based on pre-industrial and palaeo-simulations. The method facilitates the direct comparison between vegetation distributions simulated by different Earth system models and between model results and the pollen-based biome reconstructions. It is therefore a powerful tool for the evaluation of Earth system models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Leandro Ponsoni, François Massonnet, Thierry Fichefet, Matthieu Chevallier, and David Docquier
The Cryosphere, 13, 521–543, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-521-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-521-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic is a main component of the Earth's climate system. It is fundamental to understand the behavior of Arctic sea ice coverage over time and in space due to many factors, e.g., shipping lanes, the travel and tourism industry, hunting and fishing activities, mineral resource extraction, and the potential impact on the weather in midlatitude regions. In this work we use observations and results from models to understand how variations in the sea ice thickness change over time and in space.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Thomas Kleinen, Gustaf Hugelius, Christian Knoblauch, Christian Beer, and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 14, 2011–2036, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2011-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-2011-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Past cold ice age temperatures and the subsequent warming towards the Holocene had large consequences for soil organic carbon (SOC) stored in perennially frozen grounds. Using an Earth system model we show how the spread in areas affected by permafrost have changed under deglacial warming, along with changes in SOC accumulation. Our model simulations suggest phases of circum-Arctic permafrost SOC gain and losses, with a net increase in SOC between the last glacial maximum and the pre-industrial.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mark M. Dekker, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1243–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one system affects the background conditions of another system. Using bifurcation theory, various types of these events are considered and early warning indicators are suggested. An illustration of such an event is found in a conceptual model, coupling the North Atlantic Ocean with the equatorial Pacific. This demonstrates the possibility of events such as this in nature.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Camilo Melo-Aguilar, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Elena García-Bustamante, Jorge Navarro-Montesinos, and Norman Steinert
Clim. Past, 14, 1583–1606, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1583-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1583-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Air–ground temperature coupling is the central assumption of borehole temperature reconstructions. Here, this premise is assessed from a pseudo-reality perspective by considering last millennium ensembles of simulations from the Community Earth System Model. The results show that long-term variations in the energy fluxes at the surface during industrial times, due to the influence of external forcings, impact the long-term air–ground temperature coupling.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Thomas Riddick, Victor Brovkin, Stefan Hagemann, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4291–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4291-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4291-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
During the Last Glacial Maximum, many rivers were blocked by the presence of large ice sheets and thus found new routes to the sea. This resulted in changes in the pattern of freshwater discharge into the oceans and thus would have significantly affected ocean circulation. Also, rivers found routes across the vast exposed continental shelves to the lower coastlines of that time. We propose a model for such changes in river routing suitable for use in wider models of the last glacial cycle.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ronja Reese, Ricarda Winkelmann, and G. Hilmar Gudmundsson
The Cryosphere, 12, 3229–3242, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3229-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3229-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately representing grounding-line flux is essential for modelling the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Currently, in some large-scale ice-flow modelling studies a condition on ice flux across grounding lines is imposed using an analytically motivated parameterisation. Here we test this expression for Antarctic grounding lines and find that it provides inaccurate and partly unphysical estimates of ice flux for the highly buttressed ice streams.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Reinhard Calov, Sebastian Beyer, Ralf Greve, Johanna Beckmann, Matteo Willeit, Thomas Kleiner, Martin Rückamp, Angelika Humbert, and Andrey Ganopolski
The Cryosphere, 12, 3097–3121, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3097-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3097-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projections for the Greenland glacial system with the new glacial system model IGLOO 1.0, which incorporates the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS 3.3, a model of basal hydrology and a parameterization of submarine melt of outlet glaciers. Surface temperature and mass balance anomalies from the MAR climate model serve as forcing delivering projections for the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise and submarine melt of Helheim and Store outlet glaciers.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
David Storkey, Adam T. Blaker, Pierre Mathiot, Alex Megann, Yevgeny Aksenov, Edward W. Blockley, Daley Calvert, Tim Graham, Helene T. Hewitt, Patrick Hyder, Till Kuhlbrodt, Jamie G. L. Rae, and Bablu Sinha
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3187–3213, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3187-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3187-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We document the latest version of the shared UK global configuration of the
NEMO ocean model. This configuration will be used as part of the climate
models for the UK contribution to the IPCC 6th Assessment Report.
30-year integrations forced with atmospheric forcing show that the new
configurations have an improved simulation in the Southern Ocean with the
near-surface temperatures and salinities and the sea ice all matching the
observations more closely.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Johannes Feldmann, Ronja Reese, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2018-109, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2018-109, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Emilie Joetzjer, Fabienne Maignan, Jérôme Chave, Daniel Goll, Ben Poulter, Jonathan Barichivich, Isabelle Maréchaux, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Matthieu Guimberteau, Kim Naudts, Damien Bonal, and Philippe Ciais
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-308, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2018-308, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the relative contributions of tree demographic, canopy structure and hydraulic processes on the Amazonian carbon and water cycles using large-scale process-based model. Our results imply that explicit coupling of the water and carbon cycles improves the representation of biogeochemical cycles and their spatial variability. Representing the variation in the ecological functioning of Amazonia should be the next step to improve the performance and predictive ability of models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
David K. Hutchinson, Agatha M. de Boer, Helen K. Coxall, Rodrigo Caballero, Johan Nilsson, and Michiel Baatsen
Clim. Past, 14, 789–810, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-789-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-789-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Eocene--Oligocene transition was a major cooling event 34 million years ago. Climate model studies of this transition have used low ocean resolution or topography that roughly approximates the time period. We present a new climate model simulation of the late Eocene, with higher ocean resolution and topography which is accurately designed for this time period. These features improve the ocean circulation and gateways which are thought to be important for this climate transition.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ronja Reese, Torsten Albrecht, Matthias Mengel, Xylar Asay-Davis, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 12, 1969–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1969-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Floating ice shelves surround most of Antarctica and ocean-driven melting at their bases is a major reason for its current sea-level contribution. We developed a simple model based on a box model approach that captures the vertical ocean circulation generally present in ice-shelf cavities and allows simulating melt rates in accordance with physical processes beneath the ice. We test the model for all Antarctic ice shelves and find that melt rates and melt patterns agree well with observations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 14, 697–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-697-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The surface energy and mass balance of ice sheets strongly depends on surface albedo. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we explore the role played by surface albedo for the simulation of glacial cycles. We show that the evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the last glacial cycle is very sensitive to the parameterization of snow grain size and the effect of dust deposition on snow albedo.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sandy P. Harrison, Patrick J. Bartlein, Victor Brovkin, Sander Houweling, Silvia Kloster, and I. Colin Prentice
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 663–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Temperature affects fire occurrence and severity. Warming will increase fire-related carbon emissions and thus atmospheric CO2. The size of this feedback is not known. We use charcoal records to estimate pre-industrial fire emissions and a simple land–biosphere model to quantify the feedback. We infer a feedback strength of 5.6 3.2 ppm CO2 per degree of warming and a gain of 0.09 ± 0.05 for a climate sensitivity of 2.8 K. Thus, fire feedback is a large part of the climate–carbon-cycle feedback.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Steven J. Lade, Jonathan F. Donges, Ingo Fetzer, John M. Anderies, Christian Beer, Sarah E. Cornell, Thomas Gasser, Jon Norberg, Katherine Richardson, Johan Rockström, and Will Steffen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 507–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-507-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-507-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Around half of the carbon that humans emit into the atmosphere each year is taken up on land (by trees) and in the ocean (by absorption). We construct a simple model of carbon uptake that, unlike the complex models that are usually used, can be analysed mathematically. Our results include that changes in atmospheric carbon may affect future carbon uptake more than changes in climate. Our simple model could also study mechanisms that are currently too uncertain for complex models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Johannes Lohmann and Peter D. Ditlevsen
Clim. Past, 14, 609–617, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-609-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-609-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The climate of the last glacial period was frequently interrupted by rapid warming events, the cause of which is still unknown. One open question is whether the occurrence of events is random or externally controlled. We studied the temporal characteristics of warm and cold phases using statistical null models and find that they are well described as random processes modulated by two different external climate factors. This may help distinguish physical mechanisms for rapid climate change.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Fabrice Ardhuin, Yevgueny Aksenov, Alvise Benetazzo, Laurent Bertino, Peter Brandt, Eric Caubet, Bertrand Chapron, Fabrice Collard, Sophie Cravatte, Jean-Marc Delouis, Frederic Dias, Gérald Dibarboure, Lucile Gaultier, Johnny Johannessen, Anton Korosov, Georgy Manucharyan, Dimitris Menemenlis, Melisa Menendez, Goulven Monnier, Alexis Mouche, Frédéric Nouguier, George Nurser, Pierre Rampal, Ad Reniers, Ernesto Rodriguez, Justin Stopa, Céline Tison, Clément Ubelmann, Erik van Sebille, and Jiping Xie
Ocean Sci., 14, 337–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-337-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-14-337-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Sea surface KInematics Multiscale (SKIM) monitoring mission is a proposal for a future satellite that is designed to measure ocean currents and waves. Using a Doppler radar, the accurate measurement of currents requires the removal of the mean velocity due to ocean wave motions. This paper describes the main processing steps needed to produce currents and wave data from the radar measurements. With this technique, SKIM can provide unprecedented coverage and resolution, over the global ocean.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Karel Castro-Morales, Thomas Kleinen, Sonja Kaiser, Sönke Zaehle, Fanny Kittler, Min Jung Kwon, Christian Beer, and Mathias Göckede
Biogeosciences, 15, 2691–2722, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2691-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2691-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present year-round methane emissions from wetlands in Northeast Siberia that were simulated with a land surface model. Ground-based flux measurements from the same area were used for evaluation of the model results, finding a best agreement with the observations in the summertime emissions that take place in this region predominantly through plants. During winter, methane emissions through the snow contribute 4 % of the total annual methane budget, but these are still underestimated.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Michiel Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Matthew Huber, Michael A. Kliphuis, Peter K. Bijl, Appy Sluijs, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-43, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-43, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The Eocene marks a period where the climate was in a hothouse state, without any continental-scale ice sheets. Such climates have proven difficult to reproduce in models, especially their low temperature difference between equator and poles. Here, we present high resolution CESM simulations using a new geographic reconstruction of the middle-to-late Eocene. The results provide new insights into a period for which knowledge is limited, leading up to a transition into the present icehouse state.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier Swingedouw, Didier M. Roche, Maria F. Sanchez-Goni, and Xavier Crosta
Clim. Past, 14, 239–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-239-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-239-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric CO2 is key for climate change. CO2 is lower during the oldest warm period of the last million years, the interglacials, than during the most recent ones (since 430 000 years ago). This difference has not been explained yet, but could be due to changes of ocean circulation. We test this hypothesis and the role of vegetation and ice sheets using an intermediate complexity model. We show that only small changes of CO2 can be obtained, underlying missing feedbacks or mechanisms.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Maarit Raivonen, Sampo Smolander, Leif Backman, Jouni Susiluoto, Tuula Aalto, Tiina Markkanen, Jarmo Mäkelä, Janne Rinne, Olli Peltola, Mika Aurela, Annalea Lohila, Marin Tomasic, Xuefei Li, Tuula Larmola, Sari Juutinen, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Martin Heimann, Sanna Sevanto, Thomas Kleinen, Victor Brovkin, and Timo Vesala
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4665–4691, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4665-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4665-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Wetlands are one of the most significant natural sources of the strong greenhouse gas methane. We developed a model that can be used within a larger wetland carbon model to simulate the methane emissions. In this study, we present the model and results of its testing. We found that the model works well with different settings and that the results depend primarily on the rate of input anoxic soil respiration and also on factors that affect the simulated oxygen concentrations in the wetland soil.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
René D. Garreaud, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Jonathan Barichivich, Juan Pablo Boisier, Duncan Christie, Mauricio Galleguillos, Carlos LeQuesne, James McPhee, and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6307–6327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6307-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6307-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This work synthesizes an interdisciplinary research on the megadrought (MD) that has afflicted central Chile since 2010. Although 1- or 2-year droughts are not infrequent in this Mediterranean-like region, the ongoing dry period stands out because of its longevity and large extent, leading to unseen hydrological effects and vegetation impacts. Understanding the nature and biophysical impacts of the MD contributes to confronting a dry, warm future regional climate scenario in subtropical regions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
David Docquier, François Massonnet, Antoine Barthélemy, Neil F. Tandon, Olivier Lecomte, and Thierry Fichefet
The Cryosphere, 11, 2829–2846, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2829-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2829-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Our study provides a new way to evaluate the performance of a climate model regarding the interplay between sea ice motion, area and thickness in the Arctic against different observation datasets. We show that the NEMO-LIM model is good in that respect and that the relationships between the different sea ice variables are complex. The metrics we developed can be used in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6), which will feed the next IPCC report.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Andrey Ganopolski and Victor Brovkin
Clim. Past, 13, 1695–1716, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1695-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1695-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Ice cores reveal that atmospheric CO2 concentration varied synchronously with the global ice volume. Explaining the mechanism of glacial–interglacial variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the link between CO2 and ice sheets evolution still remains a challenge. Here using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity we performed for the first time simulations of co-evolution of climate, ice sheets and carbon cycle using the astronomical forcing as the only external forcing.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Finn Müller-Hansen, Maja Schlüter, Michael Mäs, Jonathan F. Donges, Jakob J. Kolb, Kirsten Thonicke, and Jobst Heitzig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 977–1007, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-977-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-977-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Today, human interactions with the Earth system lead to complex feedbacks between social and ecological dynamics. Modeling such feedbacks explicitly in Earth system models (ESMs) requires making assumptions about individual decision making and behavior, social interaction, and their aggregation. In this overview paper, we compare different modeling approaches and techniques and highlight important consequences of modeling assumptions. We illustrate them with examples from land-use modeling.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Sebastian Sippel, Jonathan F. Donges, Thomas Kaminski, Stefan Metzger, Mirco Migliavacca, Dario Papale, Anja Rammig, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 14, 4255–4277, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4255-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the likelihood of ecological in situ networks to detect and monitor the impact of extreme events in the terrestrial biosphere.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Milan Flach, Fabian Gans, Alexander Brenning, Joachim Denzler, Markus Reichstein, Erik Rodner, Sebastian Bathiany, Paul Bodesheim, Yanira Guanche, Sebastian Sippel, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 677–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-677-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-677-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Anomalies and extremes are often detected using univariate peak-over-threshold approaches in the geoscience community. The Earth system is highly multivariate. We compare eight multivariate anomaly detection algorithms and combinations of data preprocessing. We identify three anomaly detection algorithms that outperform univariate extreme event detection approaches. The workflows have the potential to reveal novelties in data. Remarks on their application to real Earth observations are provided.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Martin Jakobsson, Christof Pearce, Thomas M. Cronin, Jan Backman, Leif G. Anderson, Natalia Barrientos, Göran Björk, Helen Coxall, Agatha de Boer, Larry A. Mayer, Carl-Magnus Mörth, Johan Nilsson, Jayne E. Rattray, Christian Stranne, Igor Semiletov, and Matt O'Regan
Clim. Past, 13, 991–1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-991-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-991-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Arctic and Pacific oceans are connected by the presently ~53 m deep Bering Strait. During the last glacial period when the sea level was lower than today, the Bering Strait was exposed. Humans and animals could then migrate between Asia and North America across the formed land bridge. From analyses of sediment cores and geophysical mapping data from Herald Canyon north of the Bering Strait, we show that the land bridge was flooded about 11 000 years ago.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mélanie Wary, Frédérique Eynaud, Didier Swingedouw, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Jens Matthiessen, Catherine Kissel, Jena Zumaque, Linda Rossignol, and Jean Jouzel
Clim. Past, 13, 729–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-729-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-729-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The last glacial period was punctuated by abrupt climatic variations, whose cold atmospheric phases have been commonly associated with cold sea-surface temperatures and expansion of sea ice in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas. Here we provide direct evidence of a regional paradoxical see-saw pattern: cold Greenland and North Atlantic phases coincide with warmer sea-surface conditions and shorter seasonal sea-ice cover durations in the Norwegian Sea as compared to warm phases.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniel S. Goll, Alexander J. Winkler, Thomas Raddatz, Ning Dong, Ian Colin Prentice, Philippe Ciais, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2009–2030, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The response of soil organic carbon decomposition to warming and the interactions between nitrogen and carbon cycling affect the feedbacks between the land carbon cycle and the climate. In the model JSBACH carbon–nitrogen interactions have only a small effect on the feedbacks, whereas modifications of soil organic carbon decomposition have a large effect. The carbon cycle in the improved model is more resilient to climatic changes than in previous version of the model.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Shuwen Sun, Enno Schefuß, Stefan Mulitza, Cristiano M. Chiessi, André O. Sawakuchi, Matthias Zabel, Paul A. Baker, Jens Hefter, and Gesine Mollenhauer
Biogeosciences, 14, 2495–2512, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2495-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2495-2017, 2017
Marília C. Campos, Cristiano M. Chiessi, Ines Voigt, Alberto R. Piola, Henning Kuhnert, and Stefan Mulitza
Clim. Past, 13, 345–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-345-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-345-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Our new planktonic foraminiferal stable carbon isotopic data from the western South Atlantic show major decreases during abrupt climate change events of the last glacial. These anomalies are likely related to periods of a sluggish Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and increase (decrease) in atmospheric CO2 (stable carbon isotopic ratios). We hypothesize that strengthening of Southern Ocean deep-water ventilation and weakening of the biological pump are responsible for these decreases.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Wolfram Barfuss, Jonathan F. Donges, Marc Wiedermann, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 255–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-255-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Human societies depend on the resources ecosystems provide. We study this coevolutionary relationship by utilizing a stylized model of resource users on a social network. This model demonstrates that social–cultural processes can have a profound influence on the environmental state, such as determining whether the resources collapse from overuse or not. This suggests that social–cultural processes should receive more attention in the modeling of sustainability transitions and the Earth system.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Finn Müller-Hansen, Manoel F. Cardoso, Eloi L. Dalla-Nora, Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, Jürgen Kurths, and Kirsten Thonicke
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 113–123, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-113-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-113-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Deforestation and subsequent land uses in the Brazilian Amazon have huge impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, local climate and biodiversity. To better understand these land-cover changes, we apply complex systems methods uncovering spatial patterns in regional transition probabilities between land-cover types, which we estimate using maps derived from satellite imagery. The results show clusters of similar land-cover dynamics and thus complement studies at the local scale.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rosanna Greenop, Mathis P. Hain, Sindia M. Sosdian, Kevin I. C. Oliver, Philip Goodwin, Thomas B. Chalk, Caroline H. Lear, Paul A. Wilson, and Gavin L. Foster
Clim. Past, 13, 149–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-149-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-149-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the boron isotopic composition of seawater (δ11Bsw) is key to calculating absolute estimates of CO2 using the boron isotope pH proxy. Here we use the boron isotope gradient, along with an estimate of pH gradient, between the surface and deep ocean to show that the δ11Bsw varies by ~ 2 ‰ over the past 23 million years. This new record has implications for both δ11Bsw and CO2 records and understanding changes in the ocean isotope composition of a number of ions through time.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniel J. Lunt, Matthew Huber, Eleni Anagnostou, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Rodrigo Caballero, Rob DeConto, Henk A. Dijkstra, Yannick Donnadieu, David Evans, Ran Feng, Gavin L. Foster, Ed Gasson, Anna S. von der Heydt, Chris J. Hollis, Gordon N. Inglis, Stephen M. Jones, Jeff Kiehl, Sandy Kirtland Turner, Robert L. Korty, Reinhardt Kozdon, Srinath Krishnan, Jean-Baptiste Ladant, Petra Langebroek, Caroline H. Lear, Allegra N. LeGrande, Kate Littler, Paul Markwick, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Paul Pearson, Christopher J. Poulsen, Ulrich Salzmann, Christine Shields, Kathryn Snell, Michael Stärz, James Super, Clay Tabor, Jessica E. Tierney, Gregory J. L. Tourte, Aradhna Tripati, Garland R. Upchurch, Bridget S. Wade, Scott L. Wing, Arne M. E. Winguth, Nicky M. Wright, James C. Zachos, and Richard E. Zeebe
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 889–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-889-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we describe the experimental design for a set of simulations which will be carried out by a range of climate models, all investigating the climate of the Eocene, about 50 million years ago. The intercomparison of model results is called 'DeepMIP', and we anticipate that we will contribute to the next IPCC report through an analysis of these simulations and the geological data to which we will compare them.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Beniamino Abis and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 14, 511–527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-511-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-511-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We study the link between the boreal tree-cover fraction distribution and eight globally observed environmental factors. We find that they exert a strong control over the tree-cover distribution, generally uniquely determining its state. Furthermore, we show the location of areas with potentially alternative tree-cover states under the same environmental conditions. These areas represent transition zones with reduced resilience, where the forest can shift between different vegetation states.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sonja Kaiser, Mathias Göckede, Karel Castro-Morales, Christian Knoblauch, Altug Ekici, Thomas Kleinen, Sebastian Zubrzycki, Torsten Sachs, Christian Wille, and Christian Beer
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 333–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-333-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-333-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
A new consistent, process-based methane module that is integrated with permafrost processes is presented. It was developed within a global land surface scheme and evaluated at a polygonal tundra site in Samoylov, Russia. The calculated methane emissions show fair agreement with field data and capture detailed differences between the explicitly modelled gas transport processes and in the gas dynamics under varying soil water and temperature conditions during seasons and on different microsites.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Thomas Kleinen, Victor Brovkin, and Guy Munhoven
Clim. Past, 12, 2145–2160, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2145-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2145-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate trends in atmospheric CO2 during three recent interglacials – the Holocene, the Eemian and MIS 11 – using an earth system model of intermediate complexity. Our model experiments show a considerable improvement in the modelled CO2 trends for all three interglacials if peat accumulation and shallow water CaCO3 sedimentation are included, forcing the model only with orbital and sea level changes. The Holocene CO2 trend requires anthropogenic emissions of CO2 only after 3 ka BP.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Vera Heck, Jonathan F. Donges, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 783–796, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-783-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-783-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the co-evolutionary dynamics of the Earth's carbon cycle and societal interventions through terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) with a conceptual model in a planetary boundary context. The focus on one planetary boundary alone may lead to navigating the Earth system out of the safe operating space due to transgression of other boundaries. The success of tCDR depends on the degree of anticipation of climate change, the potential tCDR rate and the underlying emission pathway.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3817–3857, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3817-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3817-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
PALADYN is presented; it is a new comprehensive and computationally efficient land surface–vegetation–carbon cycle model designed to be used in Earth system models of intermediate complexity for long-term simulations and paleoclimate studies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sylvia S. Nyawira, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Axel Don, Victor Brovkin, and Julia Pongratz
Biogeosciences, 13, 5661–5675, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5661-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5661-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce an approach applicable to dynamic global vegetation models for evaluating simulated soil carbon changes from land-use changes against meta-analyses. The approach makes use of the large spatial coverage of the observations, and accounts for different ages of the sampled land-use transitions. The evaluation offers an opportunity for identifying causes of model–data discrepancies. Applied to the model JSBACH, we find that introducing crop harvest substantially improves the results.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jonatan F. Siegmund, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, and Reik V. Donner
Biogeosciences, 13, 5541–5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5541-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-5541-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we systematically quantify simultaneities between meteorological extremes and the timing of flowering of four shrub species across Germany by using event coincidence analysis. Our study confirms previous findings of experimental studies, highlighting the impact of early spring temperatures on the flowering of the investigated plants. Additionally, the analysis reveals statistically significant indications of an influence of temperature extremes in the fall preceding the flowering.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Jonathan Barichivich, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Thomas Gasser, Shushi Peng, Julia Pongratz, Nicolas Viovy, and Cathy M. Trudinger
Biogeosciences, 13, 4877–4897, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The ice-core record shows a stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 in the 1940s, despite continued emissions from fossil fuel burning and land-use change (LUC). We use up-to-date reconstructions of the CO2 sources and sinks over the 20th century to evaluate whether these capture the CO2 plateau and to test the previously proposed hypothesis. Both strong terrestrial sink, possibly due to LUC not fully accounted for in the records, and enhanced oceanic uptake are necessary to explain this stall.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Almut Arneth, Victor Brovkin, Kate V. Calvin, Andrew D. Jones, Chris D. Jones, Peter J. Lawrence, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2973–2998, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The goal of LUMIP is to take the next steps in land-use change science, and enable, coordinate, and ultimately address the most important land-use science questions in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Helge F. Goessling and Sebastian Bathiany
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 697–715, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-697-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Carbon dioxide, while warming the Earth's surface, cools the atmosphere beyond about 15 km (the middle atmosphere). This cooling is considered a fingerprint of anthropogenic global warming, yet the physical reason behind it remains prone to misconceptions. Here we use a simple radiation model to illustrate the physical essence of stratospheric cooling, and a complex climate model to quantify how strongly different mechanisms contribute.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Chris D. Jones, Vivek Arora, Pierre Friedlingstein, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, John Dunne, Heather Graven, Forrest Hoffman, Tatiana Ilyina, Jasmin G. John, Martin Jung, Michio Kawamiya, Charlie Koven, Julia Pongratz, Thomas Raddatz, James T. Randerson, and Sönke Zaehle
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2853–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2853-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
How the carbon cycle interacts with climate will affect future climate change and how society plans emissions reductions to achieve climate targets. The Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) is an endorsed activity of CMIP6 and aims to quantify these interactions and feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models. This paper lays out the experimental protocol for modelling groups to follow to contribute to C4MIP. It is a contribution to the CMIP6 GMD Special Issue.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Anders Levermann and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 10, 1799–1807, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1799-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1799-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing mass and has thereby contributed to global sea-level rise. Here we derive the basic equations for the melt elevation feedback that can lead to self-amplifying melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet and ice sheets in general. The theory unifies the results of complex models when the feedback dominates the dynamics and it allows us to estimate the melt time of ice sheets from data in cases where ice dynamic loss can be neglected.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Michiel Baatsen, Douwe J. J. van Hinsbergen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Henk A. Dijkstra, Appy Sluijs, Hemmo A. Abels, and Peter K. Bijl
Clim. Past, 12, 1635–1644, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1635-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1635-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
One of the major difficulties in modelling palaeoclimate is constricting the boundary conditions, causing significant discrepancies between different studies. Here, a new method is presented to automate much of the process of generating the necessary geographical reconstructions. The latter can be made using various rotational frameworks and topography/bathymetry input, allowing for easy inter-comparisons and the incorporation of the latest insights from geoscientific research.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sebastian Bathiany, Bregje van der Bolt, Mark S. Williamson, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Egbert H. van Nes, and Dirk Notz
The Cryosphere, 10, 1631–1645, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1631-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1631-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We examine if a potential "tipping point" in Arctic sea ice, causing abrupt and irreversible sea-ice loss, could be foreseen with statistical early warning signals. We assess this idea by using several models of different complexity. We find robust and consistent trends in variability that are not specific to the existence of a tipping point. While this makes an early warning impossible, it allows to estimate sea-ice variability from only short observational records or reconstructions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ulrike Port, Martin Claussen, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 535–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-535-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-535-2016, 2016
Mark S. Williamson, Sebastian Bathiany, and Timothy M. Lenton
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 313–326, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-313-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-313-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We find early warnings of abrupt changes in complex dynamical systems such as the climate where the usual early warning indicators do not work. In particular, these are systems that are periodically forced, for example by the annual cycle of solar insolation. We show these indicators are good theoretically in a general setting then apply them to a specific system, that of the Arctic sea ice, which has been conjectured to be close to such a tipping point. We do not find evidence of it.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Willem P. Sijp, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Peter K. Bijl
Clim. Past, 12, 807–817, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-807-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-807-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The timing and role in ocean circulation and climate of the opening of Southern Ocean gateways is as yet elusive. Here, we present the first model results specific to the early-to-middle Eocene where, in agreement with the field evidence, a southerly shallow opening of the Tasman Gateway does indeed cause a westward flow across the Tasman Gateway, in agreement with recent micropalaeontological studies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Peter Köhler, Lennert B. Stap, Anna S. von der Heydt, Bas de Boer, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-23, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-23, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Evidence indicate that specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global annual mean surface temperature change as a response to a change in radiative forcing, is state dependent. We here show that the interpretation of data in the state-dependent case is not straightforward. We analyse the differences of a point-wise approach and one based on a piece-wise linear analysis, combine both, compare with potential model results and apply the theoretical concepts to data of the last 800 kyr.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Fabio Cresto Aleina, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Tim Brücher, Thomas Kleinen, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 915–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-915-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-915-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the hotspot parameterization, a novel approach to upscaling methane emissions in a boreal peatland from the micro-topographic scale to the landscape scale. We based this new parameterization on the analysis of water table patterns generated by the Hummock–Hollow (HH) model. We show how the hotspot parameterization successfully upscales the micro-topographic controls on methane emissions for both present-day conditions and for the next century under three different scenarios.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
J. Heitzig, T. Kittel, J. F. Donges, and N. Molkenthin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 21–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-21-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-21-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The debate about a safe and just operating space for humanity and the possible pathways towards and within it requires an analysis of the inherent dynamics of the Earth system and of the options for influencing its evolution. We present and illustrate with examples a conceptual framework for performing such an analysis not in a quantitative, optimizing mode, but in a qualitative way that emphasizes the main decision dilemmas that one may face in the sustainable management of the Earth system.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
B. A. A. Hoogakker, D. J. R. Thornalley, and S. Barker
Biogeosciences, 13, 211–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-211-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-211-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Models predict a decrease in future ocean O2, driven by surface water warming and freshening in the polar regions, causing a reduction in ocean circulation. Here we assess this effect in the past, focussing on the response of deep and intermediate waters from the North Atlantic during large-scale ice rafting and millennial-scale cooling events of the last glacial.
Our assessment agrees with the models but also highlights the importance of biological processes driving ocean O2 change.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
P. Köhler, B. de Boer, A. S. von der Heydt, L. B. Stap, and R. S. W. van de Wal
Clim. Past, 11, 1801–1823, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1801-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1801-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We find that the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity due to radiative forcing of CO2 and land ice albedo has been state-dependent for the last 2.1Myr (most of the Pleistocene). Its value is ~45% larger during intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. The state dependency is mainly caused by a latitudinal dependency in ice sheet area changes. Due to uncertainties in CO2, firm conclusions for the Pliocene are not yet possible.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
P. A. Baker, S. C. Fritz, C. G. Silva, C. A. Rigsby, M. L. Absy, R. P. Almeida, M. Caputo, C. M. Chiessi, F. W. Cruz, C. W. Dick, S. J. Feakins, J. Figueiredo, K. H. Freeman, C. Hoorn, C. Jaramillo, A. K. Kern, E. M. Latrubesse, M. P. Ledru, A. Marzoli, A. Myrbo, A. Noren, W. E. Piller, M. I. F. Ramos, C. C. Ribas, R. Trnadade, A. J. West, I. Wahnfried, and D. A. Willard
Sci. Dril., 20, 41–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-20-41-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-20-41-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We report on a planned Trans-Amazon Drilling Project (TADP) that will continuously sample Late Cretaceous to modern sediment in a transect along the equatorial Amazon of Brazil, from the Andean foreland to the Atlantic Ocean. The TADP will document the evolution of the Neotropical forest and will link biotic diversification to changes in the physical environment, including climate, tectonism, and landscape. We will also sample the ca. 200Ma basaltic sills that underlie much of the Amazon.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
C. Häggi, C. M. Chiessi, and E. Schefuß
Biogeosciences, 12, 7239–7249, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7239-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-7239-2015, 2015
F. Cresto Aleina, B. R. K. Runkle, T. Kleinen, L. Kutzbach, J. Schneider, and V. Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 12, 5689–5704, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5689-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5689-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a process-based model for peatland micro-topography and hydrology, the Hummock-Hollow (HH) model, which explicitly represents small-scale surface elevation changes. By coupling the HH model with a model for soil methane processes, we are able to model the effects of micro-topography on hydrology and methane emissions in a typical boreal peatland. We also identify potential biases that models without a micro-topographic representation can introduce in large-scale models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
J. D. Wilson, A. Ridgwell, and S. Barker
Biogeosciences, 12, 5547–5562, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5547-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5547-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We explore whether ocean model transport rates, in the form of a transport matrix, can be used to estimate remineralisation rates from dissolved nutrient concentrations and infer vertical fluxes of particulate organic carbon. Estimated remineralisation rates are significantly sensitive to uncertainty in the observations and the modelled circulation. The remineralisation of dissolved organic matter is an additional source of uncertainty when inferring vertical fluxes from remineralisation rates.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
T. Nocke, S. Buschmann, J. F. Donges, N. Marwan, H.-J. Schulz, and C. Tominski
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 545–570, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-545-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-545-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The paper reviews the available visualisation techniques and tools for the visual analysis of geo-physical climate networks. The results from a questionnaire with experts from non-linear physics are presented, and the paper surveys recent developments from information visualisation and cartography with respect to their applicability for visual climate network analytics. Several case studies based on own solutions illustrate the potentials of state-of-the-art network visualisation technology.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
M. Willeit and A. Ganopolski
Clim. Past, 11, 1165–1180, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1165-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1165-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we explore the permafrost–ice-sheet interaction using the fully coupled climate–ice-sheet model CLIMBER-2 with the addition of a newly developed permafrost module. We find that permafrost has a moderate but significant effect on ice sheet dynamics during the last glacial cycle. In particular at the Last Glacial Maximum the inclusion of permafrost leads to a 15m sea level equivalent increase in Northern Hemisphere ice volume when permafrost is included.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
C. D. Koven, J. Q. Chambers, K. Georgiou, R. Knox, R. Negron-Juarez, W. J. Riley, V. K. Arora, V. Brovkin, P. Friedlingstein, and C. D. Jones
Biogeosciences, 12, 5211–5228, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5211-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Terrestrial carbon feedbacks are a large uncertainty in climate change. We separate modeled feedback responses into those governed by changed carbon inputs (productivity) and changed outputs (turnover). The disaggregated responses show that both are important in controlling inter-model uncertainty. Interactions between productivity and turnover are also important, and research must focus on these interactions for more accurate projections of carbon cycle feedbacks.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
A. Y. Sun, J. Chen, and J. Donges
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 22, 433–446, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-433-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-22-433-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Terrestrial water storage (TWS) plays a key role in global water and energy cycles. This work applies complex climate networks to analyzing spatial patterns in TWS. A comparative analysis is conducted using a remotely sensed (GRACE) and a model-generated TWS data set. Our results reveal hotspots of TWS anomalies around the global land surfaces. Prospects are offered on using network connectivity as constraints to further improve current global land surface models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
C. M. Chiessi, S. Mulitza, G. Mollenhauer, J. B. Silva, J. Groeneveld, and M. Prange
Clim. Past, 11, 915–929, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-915-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-915-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Here we show that temperatures in the western South Atlantic increased markedly during the major slowdown event of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) of the last deglaciation. Over the adjacent continent, however, temperatures followed the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide, lagging changes in oceanic temperature. Our records corroborate the notion that the long duration of the major slowdown event of the AMOC was fundamental in driving the Earth out of the last glacial.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
T. J. Bohn, J. R. Melton, A. Ito, T. Kleinen, R. Spahni, B. D. Stocker, B. Zhang, X. Zhu, R. Schroeder, M. V. Glagolev, S. Maksyutov, V. Brovkin, G. Chen, S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, A. Gallego-Sala, K. C. McDonald, M.A. Rawlins, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, Q. Zhuang, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 12, 3321–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3321-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated 21 forward models and 5 inversions over western Siberia in terms of CH4 emissions and simulated wetland areas and compared these results to an intensive in situ CH4 flux data set, several wetland maps, and two satellite inundation products. In addition to assembling a definitive collection of methane emissions estimates for the region, we were able to identify the types of wetland maps and model features necessary for accurate simulations of high-latitude wetlands.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
R. Marsh, V. O. Ivchenko, N. Skliris, S. Alderson, G. R. Bigg, G. Madec, A. T. Blaker, Y. Aksenov, B. Sinha, A. C. Coward, J. Le Sommer, N. Merino, and V. B. Zalesny
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1547–1562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1547-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1547-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Calved icebergs account for around 50% of total freshwater input to the ocean from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. As they melt, icebergs interact with the ocean. We have developed and tested interactive icebergs in a state-of-the-art global ocean model, showing how sea ice, temperatures, and currents are disturbed by iceberg melting. With this new model capability, we are better prepared to predict how future increases in iceberg numbers might influence the oceans and climate.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
S. Kloster, T. Brücher, V. Brovkin, and S. Wilkenskjeld
Clim. Past, 11, 781–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-781-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-781-2015, 2015
J. F. Donges, R. V. Donner, N. Marwan, S. F. M. Breitenbach, K. Rehfeld, and J. Kurths
Clim. Past, 11, 709–741, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-709-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-709-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Paleoclimate records from cave deposits allow the reconstruction of Holocene dynamics of the Asian monsoon system, an important tipping element in Earth's climate. Employing recently developed techniques of nonlinear time series analysis reveals several robust and continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoonal variability. These regime shifts might have played an important role as drivers of migration, cultural change, and societal collapse during the past 10,000 years.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
U. Port, M. Claussen, and V. Brovkin
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-997-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-997-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
M. Baudena, S. C. Dekker, P. M. van Bodegom, B. Cuesta, S. I. Higgins, V. Lehsten, C. H. Reick, M. Rietkerk, S. Scheiter, Z. Yin, M. A. Zavala, and V. Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 12, 1833–1848, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1833-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1833-2015, 2015
M. A. Martin, A. Levermann, and R. Winkelmann
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-1705-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-1705-2015, 2015
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Numerical ice sheet modelling shows that idealized, step-function type ocean warming in the Weddell Sea, where the ice sheet is close to floatation, leads to more immediate ice discharge with a higher sensitivity to small warming levels than the same warming in the Amundsen Sea. While the cumulative ice loss in the Amundsen Sea Sector is of similar magnitude after five centuries of continued warming, ice loss increases at a slower pace and only for significantly higher warming levels.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
A. Rammig, M. Wiedermann, J. F. Donges, F. Babst, W. von Bloh, D. Frank, K. Thonicke, and M. D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 12, 373–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-373-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-373-2015, 2015
K. H. Salmon, P. Anand, P. F. Sexton, and M. Conte
Biogeosciences, 12, 223–235, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-223-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-223-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Planktonic foraminifera are an important component of the marine carbon/carbonate cycle, yet the environmental controls on their abundances are still debated. In our study, we see larger foraminifera fluxes, particularly of heavy species, during winter when nutrients are mixed into the surface waters or during eddy mixing. Climatic factors that control mixing could therefore control the flux of planktonic foraminfera and the carbon/carbonate flux on seasonal and decadal timescales.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
D. C. Zemp, C.-F. Schleussner, H. M. J. Barbosa, R. J. van der Ent, J. F. Donges, J. Heinke, G. Sampaio, and A. Rammig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13337–13359, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014, 2014
I. A. Dmitrenko, S. A. Kirillov, N. Serra, N. V. Koldunov, V. V. Ivanov, U. Schauer, I. V. Polyakov, D. Barber, M. Janout, V. S. Lien, M. Makhotin, and Y. Aksenov
Ocean Sci., 10, 719–730, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-719-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-719-2014, 2014
A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann, S. Nowicki, J. L. Fastook, K. Frieler, R. Greve, H. H. Hellmer, M. A. Martin, M. Meinshausen, M. Mengel, A. J. Payne, D. Pollard, T. Sato, R. Timmermann, W. L. Wang, and R. A. Bindschadler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 271–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, 2014
A. Megann, D. Storkey, Y. Aksenov, S. Alderson, D. Calvert, T. Graham, P. Hyder, J. Siddorn, and B. Sinha
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1069–1092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1069-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1069-2014, 2014
A. Govin, C. M. Chiessi, M. Zabel, A. O. Sawakuchi, D. Heslop, T. Hörner, Y. Zhang, and S. Mulitza
Clim. Past, 10, 843–862, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-843-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-843-2014, 2014
F. S. E. Vamborg, V. Brovkin, and M. Claussen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 89–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-89-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-89-2014, 2014
D. Dalmonech, A. M. Foley, A. Anav, P. Friedlingstein, A. D. Friend, M. Kidston, M. Willeit, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-2083-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-2083-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
M. Willeit, A. Ganopolski, and G. Feulner
Biogeosciences, 11, 17–32, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-17-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-17-2014, 2014
P. Dass, C. Müller, V. Brovkin, and W. Cramer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 409–424, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-409-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-409-2013, 2013
F. Wobus, G. I. Shapiro, J. M. Huthnance, M. A. M. Maqueda, and Y. Aksenov
Ocean Sci., 9, 885–899, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-885-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-885-2013, 2013
L. F. Prado, I. Wainer, C. M. Chiessi, M.-P. Ledru, and B. Turcq
Clim. Past, 9, 2117–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2117-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2117-2013, 2013
L. M. Verheijen, V. Brovkin, R. Aerts, G. Bönisch, J. H. C. Cornelissen, J. Kattge, P. B. Reich, I. J. Wright, and P. M. van Bodegom
Biogeosciences, 10, 5497–5515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5497-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5497-2013, 2013
M. Willeit, A. Ganopolski, and G. Feulner
Clim. Past, 9, 1749–1759, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1749-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1749-2013, 2013
M. Claussen, K. Selent, V. Brovkin, T. Raddatz, and V. Gayler
Biogeosciences, 10, 3593–3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3593-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3593-2013, 2013
R. Wania, J. R. Melton, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, P. O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, J. S. Singarayer, S. Zürcher, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. J. Beerling, S. N. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 617–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, 2013
M. Kageyama, U. Merkel, B. Otto-Bliesner, M. Prange, A. Abe-Ouchi, G. Lohmann, R. Ohgaito, D. M. Roche, J. Singarayer, D. Swingedouw, and X Zhang
Clim. Past, 9, 935–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-935-2013, 2013
R. Séférian, L. Bopp, D. Swingedouw, and J. Servonnat
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 109–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-109-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-109-2013, 2013
M. Casado, P. Ortega, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Swingedouw, V. Daux, D. Genty, F. Maignan, O. Solomina, B. Vinther, N. Viovy, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 9, 871–886, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-871-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-871-2013, 2013
F. Joos, R. Roth, J. S. Fuglestvedt, G. P. Peters, I. G. Enting, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, E. J. Burke, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Friedrich, T. L. Frölicher, P. R. Halloran, P. B. Holden, C. Jones, T. Kleinen, F. T. Mackenzie, K. Matsumoto, M. Meinshausen, G.-K. Plattner, A. Reisinger, J. Segschneider, G. Shaffer, M. Steinacher, K. Strassmann, K. Tanaka, A. Timmermann, and A. J. Weaver
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013, 2013
P. Ortega, M. Montoya, F. González-Rouco, H. Beltrami, and D. Swingedouw
Clim. Past, 9, 547–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-547-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-547-2013, 2013
S. Bathiany, M. Claussen, and K. Fraedrich
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 63–78, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-63-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-63-2013, 2013
S. Bathiany, M. Claussen, and K. Fraedrich
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 79–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-79-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-79-2013, 2013
J. R. Melton, R. Wania, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, D. J. Beerling, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, S. N. Denisov, P. O. Hopcroft, D. P. Lettenmaier, W. J. Riley, J. S. Singarayer, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, S. Zürcher, V. Brovkin, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 10, 753–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, 2013
J. Segschneider, A. Beitsch, C. Timmreck, V. Brovkin, T. Ilyina, J. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz, K. D. Six, and D. Zanchettin
Biogeosciences, 10, 669–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, 2013
A. S. von der Heydt, A. Nnafie, and H. A. Dijkstra
Clim. Past, 7, 903–915, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-903-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-903-2011, 2011
M. Tigchelaar, A. S. von der Heydt, and H. A. Dijkstra
Clim. Past, 7, 235–247, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-235-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-235-2011, 2011
Related subject area
Topics: Climate change | Interactions: Other interactions | Methods: Earth system and climate modeling
Storylines of summer Arctic climate change constrained by Barents–Kara seas and Arctic tropospheric warming for climate risk assessment
Testing the assumptions in emergent constraints: why does the “emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability” work for CMIP5 and not CMIP6?
Future Changes of Compound Explosive Cyclones and Atmospheric Rivers in the North Atlantic
Extending MESMER-X: a spatially resolved Earth system model emulator for fire weather and soil moisture
Understanding pattern scaling errors across a range of emissions pathways
Role of mean and variability change in changes in European annual and seasonal extreme precipitation events
Modelling the effect of aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing on the South Asian and East Asian monsoons with an intermediate-complexity climate model
Xavier J. Levine, Ryan S. Williams, Gareth Marshall, Andrew Orr, Lise Seland Graff, Dörthe Handorf, Alexey Karpechko, Raphael Köhler, René R. Wijngaard, Nadine Johnston, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, and Priscilla A. Mooney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1161–1177, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
While the most recent climate projections agree that the Arctic is warming, differences remain in how much and in other climate variables such as precipitation. This presents a challenge for stakeholders who need to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. We tackle this problem by using the storyline approach to generate four plausible and actionable realisations of end-of-century climate change for the Arctic, spanning its most likely range of variability.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mark S. Williamson, Peter M. Cox, Chris Huntingford, and Femke J. M. M. Nijsse
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 829–852, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-829-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-829-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) have generally got statistically weaker in the latest set of state-of-the-art climate models (CMIP6) compared to past sets (CMIP5). We look at why this weakening happened for one particular study (Cox et al, 2018) and attribute it to an assumption made in the theory that when corrected for restores there is a stronger relationship between predictor and ECS.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1711, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1711, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Explosive Cyclones and Atmospheric Rivers are two main drivers of extreme weather in Europe. In this study, we investigate their joint changes in future climates over the North Atlantic. Our results show that both the concurrence of these events and the intensity of atmospheric rivers increase by the end of the century across different future scenarios. Furthermore, explosive cyclones associated with atmospheric rivers are longer-lasting and deeper than those without atmospheric rivers.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Yann Quilcaille, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1333–1362, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1333-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are powerful tools, but they have high computational costs, hindering their use in exploring future climate extremes. We demonstrate MESMER-X, the only existing emulator for spatial climate extremes (heatwaves, fires, droughts) that mimics all of their relevant properties. Thanks to its negligible computational cost, MESMER-X may greatly accelerate the exploration of future climate extremes or enable the integration of climate extremes in economic and financial models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Christopher D. Wells, Lawrence S. Jackson, Amanda C. Maycock, and Piers M. Forster
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 817–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-817-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-817-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There are many possibilities for future emissions, with different impacts in different places. Complex models can study these impacts but take a long time to run, even on powerful computers. Simple methods can be used to reduce this time by estimating the complex model output, but these are not perfect. This study looks at the accuracy of one of these techniques, showing that there are limitations to its use, especially for low-emission future scenarios.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Raul R. Wood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 797–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-797-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-797-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The change in extreme-event occurrence is influenced by both a shift in the mean and a change in variability. How large the individual contributions are remains largely unknown. Large-ensemble climate simulations and probability risk ratio are used to partition the change in extreme precipitation events into contributions from a change in the mean and variability. The results reveal that the change in variability can be equally as important as or even more important than the mean change.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lucy G. Recchia and Valerio Lucarini
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 697–722, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-697-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-697-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations are performed with an intermediate-complexity climate model, PLASIM, to assess the future response of monsoons to changing concentrations of aerosols and greenhouse gases. The aerosol loading is applied to India, Southeast Asia, and eastern China, both concurrently and independently, to assess linearity. The primary effect of increased aerosol loading is a decrease in summer precipitation in the vicinity of the applied forcing, although the regional response varies significantly.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cited articles
Abdalati, W., Zwally, H. J., Bindschadler, R., Csatho, B., Farrell, S. L., Fricker, H. A., Harding, D., Kwok, R., Lefsky, M., Markus, T., Marshak, A., Neumann, T., Palm, S., Schutz, B., Smith, B., Spinhirne, J., and Webb, C.: The ICESat-2 laser altimetry mission, Proc. IEEE, 98, 735–751, 2010. a
Ackermann, L., Danek, C., Gierz, P., and Lohmann, G.: AMOC Recovery in a multicentennial scenario using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice sheet model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086810, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086810, 2020. a, b
Alvarez-Solas, J., Robinson, A., Montoya, M., and Ritz, C.: Iceberg discharges of the last glacial period driven by oceanic circulation changes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 16350–16354, 2013. a
Aragão, L. E.: The rainforest's water pump, Nature, 489, 217–218, 2012. a
Armstrong, E., Valdes, P., House, J., and Singarayer, J.: Investigating the feedbacks between CO2, vegetation and the AMOC in a coupled climate model, Clim. Dynam., 53, 2485–2500, 2019. a
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., and Lenton, T. M.: Exceeding 1.5 C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science, 377, eabn7950, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950, 2022. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Årthun, M., Eldevik, T., Smedsrud, L., Skagseth, Ø., and Ingvaldsen, R.: Quantifying the influence of Atlantic heat on Barents Sea ice variability and retreat, J. Clim., 25, 4736–4743, 2012. a
Baatsen, M., von der Heydt, A. S., Huber, M., Kliphuis, M. A., Bijl, P. K., Sluijs, A., and Dijkstra, H. A.: The middle to late Eocene greenhouse climate modelled using the CESM 1.0.5, Clim. Past, 16, 2573–2597, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2573-2020, 2020. a
Baatsen, M., Bijl, P., von der Heydt, A., Sluijs, A., and Dijkstra, H.: Resilient Antarctic monsoonal climate prevented ice growth during the Eocene, Clim. Past, 20, 77–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-77-2024, 2024. a
Bakker, P., Schmittner, A., Lenaerts, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bi, D., van den Broeke, M., Chan, W.-L., Hu, A., Beadling, R., Marsland, S., Mernhild, S., Saenko, O., Swingedouw, D., Sullivan, A., and Yin, J.: Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 12–252, 2016. a
Barker, S. and Knorr, G.: Antarctic climate signature in the Greenland ice core record, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104, 17278–17282, 2007. a
Barker, S. and Knorr, G.: A paleo-perspective on the AMOC as a tipping element, PAGES Magazine, 24, 14–15, 2016. a
Barker, S. and Knorr, G.: Millennial scale feedbacks determine the shape and rapidity of glacial termination, Nat. Commun., 12, 2273, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22388-6, 2021. a
Barker, S., Knorr, G., Edwards, R. L., Parrenin, F., Putnam, A. E., Skinner, L. C., Wolff, E., and Ziegler, M.: 800,000 years of abrupt climate variability, Science, 334, 347–351, 2011. a
Barker, S., Chen, J., Gong, X., Jonkers, L., Knorr, G., and Thornalley, D.: Icebergs not the trigger for North Atlantic cold events, Nature, 520, 333–336, 2015. a
Barker, S., Knorr, G., Conn, S., Lordsmith, S., Newman, D., and Thornalley, D.: Early interglacial legacy of deglacial climate instability, Paleoceanogr. Paleocl., 34, 1455–1475, 2019. a
Bastiaansen, R., Doelman, A., Eppinga, M. B., and Rietkerk, M.: The effect of climate change on the resilience of ecosystems with adaptive spatial pattern formation, Ecol. Lett., 23, 414–429, 2020. a
Bastiaansen, R., Dijkstra, H. A., and von der Heydt, A. S.: Fragmented tipping in a spatially heterogeneous world, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 045006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac59a8, 2022. a
Baudena, M., Tuinenburg, O. A., Ferdinand, P. A., and Staal, A.: Effects of land-use change in the Amazon on precipitation are likely underestimated, Glob. Change Biol., 27, 5580–5587, 2021. a
Beckage, B., Lacasse, K., Winter, J. M., Gross, L. J., Fefferman, N., Hoffman, F. M., Metcalf, S. S., Franck, T., Carr, E., Zia, A., and Kinzig, A.: The Earth has humans, so why don’t our climate models?, Climatic Change, 163, 181–188, 2020. a
Bel, G., Hagberg, A., and Meron, E.: Gradual regime shifts in spatially extended ecosystems, Theor. Ecol., 5, 591–604, 2012. a
Bellomo, K., Meccia, V. L., D’Agostino, R., Fabiano, F., Larson, S. M., von Hardenberg, J., and Corti, S.: Impacts of a weakened AMOC on precipitation over the Euro-Atlantic region in the EC-Earth3 climate model, Clim. Dynam., 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06754-2, 2023. a, b, c, d
Ben-Yami, M., Good, P., Jackson, L. C., Crucifix, M., Hu, A., Saenko, O. A., Swingedouw, D., and Boers, N.: Robust and irreversible impacts of an AMOC collapse on tropical monsoon systems: a multi-model comparison, Authorea Preprints, in review, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169447451.12077946/v1, 2024. a
Berk, J. v. d., Drijfhout, S., and Hazeleger, W.: Circulation adjustment in the Arctic and Atlantic in response to Greenland and Antarctic mass loss, Clim. Dynam., 57, 1689–1707, 2021. a
Betts, R. A., Cox, P. M., Lee, S. E., and Woodward, F. I.: Contrasting physiological and structural vegetation feedbacks in climate change simulations, Nature, 387, 796–799, 1997. a
Bintanja, R., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Drijfhout, S., Wouters, B., and Katsman, C.: Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion, Nat. Geosci., 6, 376–379, 2013. a
Bischoff, T. and Schneider, T.: Energetic constraints on the position of the intertropical convergence zone, J. Clim., 27, 4937–4951, 2014. a
Boers, N., Ghil, M., and Rousseau, D.-D.: Ocean circulation, ice shelf, and sea ice interactions explain Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, E11005–E11014, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1802573115, 2018. a
Bonan, G. B., Levis, S., Sitch, S., Vertenstein, M., and Oleson, K. W.: A dynamic global vegetation model for use with climate models: concepts and description of simulated vegetation dynamics, Glob. Change Biol., 9, 1543–1566, 2003. a
Born, A. and Stocker, T. F.: Two stable equilibria of the Atlantic subpolar gyre, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 44, 246–264, 2014. a
Bozbiyik, A., Steinacher, M., Joos, F., Stocker, T. F., and Menviel, L.: Fingerprints of changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle in response to large reorganizations in ocean circulation, Clim. Past, 7, 319–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-319-2011, 2011. a
Brönnimann, S., Xoplaki, E., Casty, C., Pauling, A., and Luterbacher, J.: ENSO influence on Europe during the last centuries, Clim. Dynam., 28, 181–197, 2007. a
Brovkin, V., Brook, E., Williams, J. W., Bathiany, S., Lenton, T. M., Barton, M., DeConto, R. M., Donges, J. F., Ganopolski, A., McManus, J., Praetorius, S., de Vernal, A., Abe-Ouchi, A., Cheng, H., Claussen, M., Crucifix, M., Gallopín, G., Iglesias, V., Kaufman, D. S., Kleinen, T., Lambert, F., van der Leeuw, S., Liddy, H., Loutre, M.-F., McGee, D., Rehfeld, K., Rhodes, R., Seddon, A. W., Trauth, M. H., Vanderveken, L., and Yu, Z.: Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system, Nat. Geosci.e, 14, 550–558, 2021. a
Brunetti, M. and Ragon, C.: Attractors and bifurcation diagrams in complex climate models, Phys. Rev. E, 107, 054214, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.107.054214, 2023. a
Buckley, M. W. and Marshall, J.: Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review, Rev. Geophys., 54, 5–63, 2016. a
Burke, K. D., Williams, J. W., Chandler, M. A., Haywood, A. M., Lunt, D. J., and Otto-Bliesner, B. L.: Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 13288–13293, 2018. a
Cai, W., Borlace, S., Lengaigne, M., Van Rensch, P., Collins, M., Vecchi, G., Timmermann, A., Santoso, A., McPhaden, M. J., Wu, L., England, M. H., Wang, G., Guilyardi, E., and Jin, F.-F.: Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 111–116, 2014. a
Cai, W., Santoso, A., Wang, G., Yeh, S.-W., An, S.-I., Cobb, K. M., Collins, M., Guilyardi, E., Jin, F.-F., Kug, J.-S., Lengaigne, M., McPhaden, M. J., Takahashi, K., Timmermann, A., Vecchi, G., Watanabe, M., and Wu, L.: ENSO and greenhouse warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 849–859, 2015. a
Cai, W., Santoso, A., Collins, M., Dewitte, B., Karamperidou, C., Kug, J.-S., Lengaigne, M., McPhaden, M. J., Stuecker, M. F., Taschetto, A. S., Timmermann, A., Wu, L., Yeh, S.-W., Wang, G., Ng, B., Jia, F., Yang, Y., Ying, J., Zheng, X.-T., Bayr, T., Brown, J. R., Capotondi, A., Cobb, K. M., Gan, B., Geng, T., Ham, Y.-G., Jin, F.-F., Jo, H.-S., Li, X., Lin, X., McGregor, S., Park, J.-H., Stein, K., Yang, K., Zhang, L., and Zhong, W.: Changing El Niño–Southern oscillation in a warming climate, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 2, 628–644, 2021. a, b
Calov, R., Ganopolski, A., Petoukhov, V., Claussen, M., and Greve, R.: Large-scale instabilities of the Laurentide ice sheet simulated in a fully coupled climate-system model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 69–1, 2002. a
Calov, R., Greve, R., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bueler, E., Huybrechts, P., Johnson, J. V., Pattyn, F., Pollard, D., Ritz, C., Saito, F., and Tarasov, L.: Results from the Ice-Sheet Model Intercomparison Project–Heinrich Event INtercOmparison (ISMIP HEINO), J. Glaciol., 56, 371–383, 2010. a
Campos, M. C., Chiessi, C. M., Prange, M., Mulitza, S., Kuhnert, H., Paul, A., Venancio, I. M., Albuquerque, A. L. S., Cruz, F. W., and Bahr, A.: A new mechanism for millennial scale positive precipitation anomalies over tropical South America, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 225, 105990, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.105990, 2019. a, b
Casas-Prat, M. and Wang, X. L.: Projections of extreme ocean waves in the Arctic and potential implications for coastal inundation and erosion, J. Geophys. Res.-Ocean., 125, e2019JC015745, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015745, 2020. a, b
Chemison, A., Defrance, D., Ramstein, G., and Caminade, C.: Impact of an acceleration of ice sheet melting on monsoon systems, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1259–1287, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1259-2022, 2022. a
Chemke, R., Ming, Y., and Yuval, J.: The intensification of winter mid-latitude storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 553–557, 2022. a
Chen, W., Dong, B., and Lu, R.: Impact of the Atlantic Ocean on the multidecadal fluctuation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation–South Asian monsoon relationship in a coupled general circulation model, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013596, 2010. a
Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Sinha, A., Spötl, C., Yi, L., Chen, S., Kelly, M., Kathayat, G., Wang, X., Li, X., Kong, X., Wang, Y., Ning, Y., and Zhang, H.: The Asian monsoon over the past 640,000 years and ice age terminations, Nature, 534, 640–646, 2016. a
Choudhury, D., Timmermann, A., Schloesser, F., Heinemann, M., and Pollard, D.: Simulating Marine Isotope Stage 7 with a coupled climate–ice sheet model, Clim. Past, 16, 2183–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2183-2020, 2020. a
Claussen, M.: On coupling global biome models with climate models, Clim. Res., 4, 203–221, 1994. a
Claussen, M., Mysak, L., Weaver, A., Crucifix, M., Fichefet, T., Loutre, M.-F., Weber, S., Alcamo, J., Alexeev, V., Berger, A., Calov, R., Ganopolski, A., Goosse, H., Lohmann, G., Lunkeit, F., Mokhov, I., Petoukhov, V., Stone, P., and Wang, Z.: Earth system models of intermediate complexity: closing the gap in the spectrum of climate system models, Clim. Dynam., 18, 579–586, 2002. a
Clemens, S. C., Yamamoto, M., Thirumalai, K., Giosan, L., Richey, J. N., Nilsson-Kerr, K., Rosenthal, Y., Anand, P., and McGrath, S. M.: Remote and local drivers of Pleistocene South Asian summer monsoon precipitation: A test for future predictions, Sci. Adv., 7, eabg3848, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abg3848, 2021. a
Clement, A. C. and Peterson, L. C.: Mechanisms of abrupt climate change of the last glacial period, Rev. Geophys., 46, 1–39, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006RG000204, 2008. a, b
Cobb, K. M., Westphal, N., Sayani, H. R., Watson, J. T., Di Lorenzo, E., Cheng, H., Edwards, R., and Charles, C. D.: Highly variable El Niño–southern oscillation throughout the Holocene, Science, 339, 67–70, 2013. a
Coxall, H. K., Huck, C. E., Huber, M., Lear, C. H., Legarda-Lisarri, A., O’regan, M., Sliwinska, K. K., Van De Flierdt, T., De Boer, A. M., Zachos, J. C., and Backman, J.: Export of nutrient rich Northern Component Water preceded early Oligocene Antarctic glaciation, Nat. Geosci., 11, 190–196, 2018. a
Crawford, A., Stroeve, J., Smith, A., and Jahn, A.: Arctic open-water periods are projected to lengthen dramatically by 2100, Commun. Earth Environ., 2, 109, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00183-x, 2021. a
Dansgaard, W., Johnsen, S. J., Clausen, H. B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Gundestrup, N. S., Hammer, C. U., Hvidberg, C. S., Steffensen, J. P., Sveinbjörnsdottir, A., Jouzel, J., and Bond, G.: Evidence for general instability of past climate from a 250-kyr ice-core record, Nature, 364, 218–220, 1993. a
Daron, J. D. and Stainforth, D. A.: On predicting climate under climate change, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 034021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034021, 2013. a
De Noblet, N. I., Prentice, I. C., Joussaume, S., Texier, D., Botta, A., and Haxeltine, A.: Possible role of atmosphere-biosphere interactions in triggering the Last Glaciation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 3191–3194, 1996. a
de Vrese, P., Georgievski, G., Gonzalez Rouco, J. F., Notz, D., Stacke, T., Steinert, N. J., Wilkenskjeld, S., and Brovkin, V.: Representation of soil hydrology in permafrost regions may explain large part of inter-model spread in simulated Arctic and subarctic climate, The Cryosphere, 17, 2095–2118, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2095-2023, 2023. a, b, c, d
de Vries, D., Heritage, S., Borths, M. R., Sallam, H. M., and Seiffert, E. R.: Widespread loss of mammalian lineage and dietary diversity in the early Oligocene of Afro-Arabia, Commun. Biol., 4, 1172, https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-021-02707-9, 2021. a
Deb, P., Orr, A., Bromwich, D. H., Nicolas, J. P., Turner, J., and Hosking, J. S.: Summer drivers of atmospheric variability affecting ice shelf thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 4124–4133, 2018. a
Delworth, T. L. and Mann, M. E.: Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Clim. Dynam., 16, 661–676, 2000. a
Di Capua, G., Kretschmer, M., Donner, R. V., van den Hurk, B., Vellore, R., Krishnan, R., and Coumou, D.: Tropical and mid-latitude teleconnections interacting with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a theory-guided causal effect network approach, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 17–34, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-17-2020, 2020. a
Dinniman, M. S., Asay-Davis, X. S., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Holland, P. R., Jenkins, A., and Timmermann, R.: Modeling ice shelf/ocean interaction in Antarctica: A review, Oceanography, 29, 144–153, 2016. a
Docquier, D. and Koenigk, T.: A review of interactions between ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 123002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac30be, 2021. a
Docquier, D., Vannitsem, S., Ragone, F., Wyser, K., and Liang, X.: Causal links between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers based on the rate of information transfer, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL095892, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095892, 2022. a
Donat-Magnin, M., Jourdain, N. C., Gallée, H., Amory, C., Kittel, C., Fettweis, X., Wille, J. D., Favier, V., Drira, A., and Agosta, C.: Interannual variability of summer surface mass balance and surface melting in the Amundsen sector, West Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 14, 229–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-229-2020, 2020. a
Drüke, M., von Bloh, W., Petri, S., Sakschewski, B., Schaphoff, S., Forkel, M., Huiskamp, W., Feulner, G., and Thonicke, K.: CM2Mc-LPJmL v1.0: biophysical coupling of a process-based dynamic vegetation model with managed land to a general circulation model, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4117–4141, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4117-2021, 2021. a
Duque-Villegas, M., Salazar, J. F., and Rendón, A. M.: Tipping the ENSO into a permanent El Niño can trigger state transitions in global terrestrial ecosystems, Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 631–650, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-631-2019, 2019. a, b
Dutton, A., Carlson, A. E., Long, A. J., Milne, G. A., Clark, P. U., DeConto, R., Horton, B. P., Rahmstorf, S., and Raymo, M. E.: Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods, Science, 349, 6244, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa4019, 2015. a
D’Onofrio, D., Baudena, M., Lasslop, G., Nieradzik, L. P., Wårlind, D., and von Hardenberg, J.: Linking vegetation-climate-fire relationships in sub-Saharan Africa to key ecological processes in two dynamic global vegetation models, Frontiers in Environmental Science, 8, 136, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2020.00136, 2020. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Fisher, R. A., Koven, C. D., Anderegg, W. R., Christoffersen, B. O., Dietze, M. C., Farrior, C. E., Holm, J. A., Hurtt, G. C., Knox, R. G., Lawrence, P. J., Lichstein, J. W., Longo, M., Matheny, A. M., Medvigy, D., Muller-Landau, H. C., Powell, T. L., Serbin, S. P., Sato, H., Shuman, J. K., Smith, B., Trugman, A. T., Viskari, T., Verbeeck, H., Weng, E., Xu, C., Xu, X., Zhang, T., and Moorcroft, P. R.: Vegetation demographics in Earth System Models: A review of progress and priorities, Glob. Change Biol., 24, 35–54, 2018. a
Fletcher, W. J., Sánchez Goñi, M. F., Allen, J. R., Cheddadi, R., Combourieu-Nebout, N., Huntley, B., Lawson, I., Londeix, L., Magri, D., Margari, V., Müller, U. C., Naughton, F., Novenko, E., Roucoux, K., and Tzedakis, P.: Millennial-scale variability during the last glacial in vegetation records from Europe, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 2839–2864, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.11.015, 2010. a
Foley, J. A., Levis, S., Prentice, I. C., Pollard, D., and Thompson, S. L.: Coupling dynamic models of climate and vegetation, Glob. Change Biol., 4, 561–579, 1998. a
Franzke, C. L., Ciullo, A., Gilmore, E. A., Matias, D. M., Nagabhatla, N., Orlov, A., Paterson, S. K., Scheffran, J., and Sillmann, J.: Perspectives on tipping points in integrated models of the natural and human Earth system: cascading effects and telecoupling, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 015004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac42fd, 2022. a
Frieler, K., Meinshausen, M., Golly, A., Mengel, M., Lebek, K., Donner, S., and Hoegh-Guldberg, O.: Limiting global warming to 2 ∘C is unlikely to save most coral reefs, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 165–170, 2013. a
Ganopolski, A. and Rahmstorf, S.: Rapid changes of glacial climate simulated in a coupled climate model, Nature, 409, 153–158, 2001. a
Gatti, L. V., Basso, L. S., Miller, J. B., Gloor, M., Gatti Domingues, L., Cassol, H. L., Tejada, G., Aragão, L. E., Nobre, C., Peters, W., Marani, L., Arai, E., Sanches, A. H., Corrêa, S. M., Anderson, L., Von Randow, C., Correia, C. S., Crispim, S. P., and Neves, R. A.: Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change, Nature, 595, 388–393, 2021. a
Gibson, K. A. and Peterson, L. C.: A 0.6 million year record of millennial-scale climate variability in the tropics, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 969–975, 2014. a
Granger, C. W.: Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods, Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 424–438, https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791, 1969. a
Hawkins, E., Smith, R. S., Allison, L. C., Gregory, J. M., Woollings, T. J., Pohlmann, H., and De Cuevas, B.: Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a global climate model and links to ocean freshwater transport, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L10605, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047208, 2011. a
Herrington, A. R. and Poulsen, C. J.: Terminating the Last Interglacial: The role of ice sheet–climate feedbacks in a GCM asynchronously coupled to an ice sheet model, J. Clim., 25, 1871–1882, 2011. a
Hewitt, H., Fox-Kemper, B., Pearson, B., Roberts, M., and Klocke, D.: The small scales of the ocean may hold the key to surprises, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 496–499, 2022. a
Hodell, D. A., Crowhurst, S. J., Lourens, L., Margari, V., Nicolson, J., Rolfe, J. E., Skinner, L. C., Thomas, N. C., Tzedakis, P. C., Mleneck-Vautravers, M. J., and Wolff, E. W.: A 1.5-million-year record of orbital and millennial climate variability in the North Atlantic, Clim. Past, 19, 607–636, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-607-2023, 2023. a
Hooker, J. J., Collinson, M. E., and Sille, N. P.: Eocene–Oligocene mammalian faunal turnover in the Hampshire Basin, UK: calibration to the global time scale and the major cooling event, J. Geol. Soc., 161, 161–172, 2004. a
Hošeková, L., Eidam, E., Panteleev, G., Rainville, L., Rogers, W. E., and Thomson, J.: Landfast ice and coastal wave exposure in northern Alaska, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL095103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095103, 2021. a, b
Houk, P., Yalon, A., Maxin, S., Starsinic, C., McInnis, A., Gouezo, M., Golbuu, Y., and Van Woesik, R.: Predicting coral-reef futures from El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillation events, Sci. Rep., 10, 7735, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-64411-8, 2020. a
Hu, A., Meehl, G. A., Han, W., Lu, J., and Strand, W. G.: Energy balance in a warm world without the ocean conveyor belt and sea ice, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 6242–6246, 2013. a
Hughes, T. P., Carpenter, S., Rockström, J., Scheffer, M., and Walker, B.: Multiscale regime shifts and planetary boundaries, Trend. Ecol. Evol., 28, 389–395, 2013. a
Hughes, T. P., Anderson, K. D., Connolly, S. R., Heron, S. F., Kerry, J. T., Lough, J. M., Baird, A. H., Baum, J. K., Berumen, M. L., Bridge, T. C., Claar, D. C., Eakin, C. M., Gilmour, J. P., Graham, N. A. J., Harrison, H., Hobbs, J.-P. A., Hoey, A. S., Hoogenboom, M., Lowe, R. J., McCulloch, M. T., Pandolfi, J. M., Pratchett, M., Schoepf, V., Torda, G., and Wilson, S. K.: Spatial and temporal patterns of mass bleaching of corals in the Anthropocene, Science, 359, 80–83, 2018. a, b
Hutchinson, D. K., Coxall, H. K., Lunt, D. J., Steinthorsdottir, M., de Boer, A. M., Baatsen, M., von der Heydt, A., Huber, M., Kennedy-Asser, A. T., Kunzmann, L., Ladant, J.-B., Lear, C. H., Moraweck, K., Pearson, P. N., Piga, E., Pound, M. J., Salzmann, U., Scher, H. D., Sijp, W. P., Śliwińska, K. K., Wilson, P. A., and Zhang, Z.: The Eocene–Oligocene transition: a review of marine and terrestrial proxy data, models and model–data comparisons, Clim. Past, 17, 269–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-269-2021, 2021. a, b
IPCC: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E., and Weyer, N., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 755 pp., https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964, 2019. a, b
Jaccard, S. L. and Galbraith, E. D.: Large climate-driven changes of oceanic oxygen concentrations during the last deglaciation, Nat. Geosci., 5, 151–156, 2012. a
Jackson, R., Gabric, A., and Cropp, R.: Effects of ocean warming and coral bleaching on aerosol emissions in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, Sci. Rep., 8, 14048, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-32470-7, 2018. a
Jansen, E., Christensen, J. H., Dokken, T., Nisancioglu, K. H., Vinther, B. M., Capron, E., Guo, C., Jensen, M. F., Langen, P. L., Pedersen, R. A., Yang, S., Bentsen, M., Kjær, H. A., Sadatzki, H., Sessford, E., and Stendel, M.: Past perspectives on the present era of abrupt Arctic climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 714–721, 2020. a
Jehn, F. U., Schneider, M., Wang, J. R., Kemp, L., and Breuer, L.: Betting on the best case: Higher end warming is underrepresented in research, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 084036, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac13ef, 2021. a
Jiménez-Muñoz, J. C., Mattar, C., Barichivich, J., Santamaría-Artigas, A., Takahashi, K., Malhi, Y., Sobrino, J. A., and van der Schrier, G.: Record-breaking warming and extreme drought in the Amazon rainforest during the course of El Niño 2015–2016, Sci. Rep., 6, 33130, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep33130, 2016. a, b
Kanner, L. C., Burns, S. J., Cheng, H., and Edwards, R. L.: High-latitude forcing of the South American summer monsoon during the last glacial, Science, 335, 570–573, 2012. a
Kemp, L., Xu, C., Depledge, J., Ebi, K. L., Gibbins, G., Kohler, T. A., Rockström, J., Scheffer, M., Schellnhuber, H. J., Steffen, W., and Lenton, T.: Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 119, e2108146119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108146119, 2022. a, b
Kennedy, A. T., Farnsworth, A., Lunt, D., Lear, C. H., and Markwick, P.: Atmospheric and oceanic impacts of Antarctic glaciation across the Eocene–Oligocene transition, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 373, 20140419, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0419, 2015. a
Kim, H.-J., An, S.-I., Park, J.-H., Sung, M.-K., Kim, D., Choi, Y., and Kim, J.-S.: North Atlantic Oscillation impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation shaped by the mean state, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 6, 25, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00354-x, 2023. a, b
Kleinen, T., Gromov, S., Steil, B., and Brovkin, V.: Atmospheric methane since the last glacial maximum was driven by wetland sources, Clim. Past, 19, 1081–1099, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1081-2023, 2023. a
Klose, A. K., Karle, V., Winkelmann, R., and Donges, J. F.: Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate, Roy. Soc. Open Sci., 7, 200599, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.200599, 2020. a, b
Klose, A. K., Wunderling, N., Winkelmann, R., and Donges, J. F.: What do we mean,“tipping cascade”?, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 125011, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3955, 2021. a
Knight, J. R., Allan, R. J., Folland, C. K., Vellinga, M., and Mann, M. E.: A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024233, 2005. a
Knorr, G. and Lohmann, G.: Rapid transitions in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation triggered by global warming and meltwater during the last deglaciation, Geochem. Geophy. Geosy., 8, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GC001604, 2007. a
Köhler, P., Knorr, G., and Bard, E.: Permafrost thawing as a possible source of abrupt carbon release at the onset of the Bølling/Allerød, Nat. Commun., 5, 5520, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6520, 2014. a
Kopp, R. E., Mitrovica, J. X., Griffies, S. M., Yin, J., Hay, C. C., and Stouffer, R. J.: The impact of Greenland melt on local sea levels: a partially coupled analysis of dynamic and static equilibrium effects in idealized water-hosing experiments: a letter, Climatic Change, 103, 619–625, 2010. a, b
Korasidis, V. A., Wallace, M. W., Wagstaff, B. E., and Hill, R. S.: Terrestrial cooling record through the Eocene-Oligocene transition of Australia, Glob. Planet. Change, 173, 61–72, 2019. a
Kravtsov, S., Grimm, C., and Gu, S.: Global-scale multidecadal variability missing in state-of-the-art climate models, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 1, 34, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-018-0044-6, 2018. a, b
Krawczyk, H., Zinke, J., Browne, N., Struck, U., McIlwain, J., O’Leary, M., and Garbe-Schönberg, D.: Corals reveal ENSO-driven synchrony of climate impacts on both terrestrial and marine ecosystems in northern Borneo, Sci. Rep., 10, 3678, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-60525-1, 2020. a, b
Kretschmer, M., Coumou, D., Donges, J. F., and Runge, J.: Using causal effect networks to analyze different Arctic drivers of midlatitude winter circulation, J. Clim., 29, 4069–4081, 2016. a
Kretschmer, M., Adams, S. V., Arribas, A., Prudden, R., Robinson, N., Saggioro, E., and Shepherd, T. G.: Quantifying causal pathways of teleconnections, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 102, E2247–E2263, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0117.1, 2021. a
Kreuzer, M., Reese, R., Huiskamp, W. N., Petri, S., Albrecht, T., Feulner, G., and Winkelmann, R.: Coupling framework (1.0) for the PISM (1.1.4) ice sheet model and the MOM5 (5.1.0) ocean model via the PICO ice shelf cavity model in an Antarctic domain, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 3697–3714, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021, 2021. a, b
Kug, J.-S., Oh, J.-H., An, S.-I., Yeh, S.-W., Min, S.-K., Son, S.-W., Kam, J., Ham, Y.-G., and Shin, J.: Hysteresis of the intertropical convergence zone to CO2 forcing, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 47–53, 2022. a
Kuhlbrodt, T., Griesel, A., Montoya, M., Levermann, A., Hofmann, M., and Rahmstorf, S.: On the driving processes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Rev. Geophys., 45, 1–32, 2007. a
Kukla, T., Ahlström, A., Maezumi, S. Y., Chevalier, M., Lu, Z., Winnick, M. J., and Chamberlain, C. P.: The resilience of Amazon tree cover to past and present drying, Glob. Planet. Change, 202, 103520, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103520, 2021. a, b
Landais, A., Jouzel, J., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Caillon, N.: Large temperature variations over rapid climatic events in Greenland: a method based on air isotopic measurements, C. R. Geosci., 337, 947–956, 2005. a
Le Nohaïc, M., Ross, C. L., Cornwall, C. E., Comeau, S., Lowe, R., McCulloch, M. T., and Schoepf, V.: Marine heatwave causes unprecedented regional mass bleaching of thermally resistant corals in northwestern Australia, Sci. Rep., 7, 14999, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14794-y, 2017. a
Lee, J.-Y., Marotzke, J., Bala, G., Cao, L., Corti, S., Dunne, J. P., Engelbrecht, F., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J. C., Jones, C., Maycock, A., Mutemi, J., Ndiaye, O., Panickal, S., and Zho, T.: Future global climate: scenario-based projections and near-term information, 553–672, Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.006, 2021. a
Levermann, A., Bamber, J. L., Drijfhout, S., Ganopolski, A., Haeberli, W., Harris, N. R., Huss, M., Krüger, K., Lenton, T. M., Lindsay, R. W., Notz, D., Wadhams, P., and Weber, S.: Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe: Review of the current state of six “tipping elements of the climate system”, Climatic Change, 110, 845–878, 2012. a
Li, C., Battisti, D. S., and Bitz, C. M.: Can North Atlantic sea ice anomalies account for Dansgaard–Oeschger climate signals?, J. Clim., 23, 5457–5475, 2010. a
Li, Q., Marshall, J., Rye, C. D., Romanou, A., Rind, D., and Kelley, M.: Global Climate Impacts of Greenland and Antarctic Meltwater: A Comparative Study, J. Clim., 36, 3571–3590, 2023. a
Liang, X. S.: Normalized multivariate time series causality analysis and causal graph reconstruction, Entropy, 23, 679, https://doi.org/10.3390/e23060679, 2021. a
Liang, X. S. and Kleeman, R.: Information transfer between dynamical system components, Phys. Rev. Lett., 95, 244101, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.95.244101, 2005. a
Liljedahl, A. K., Boike, J., Daanen, R. P., Fedorov, A. N., Frost, G. V., Grosse, G., Hinzman, L. D., Iijma, Y., Jorgenson, J. C., Matveyeva, N., Necsoiu, M., Raynolds, M. K., Romanovsky, V. E., Schulla, J., Tape, K. D., Walker, D. A., Wilson, C. J., Yabuki, H., and Zona, D.: Pan-Arctic ice-wedge degradation in warming permafrost and its influence on tundra hydrology, Nat. Geosci., 9, 312–318, 2016. a
Liu, W., Fedorov, A. V., Xie, S.-P., and Hu, S.: Climate impacts of a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a warming climate, Sci. Adv., 6, eaaz4876, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz4876, 2020. a, b, c
Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., He, F., Brady, E. C., Tomas, R., Clark, P. U., Carlson, A. E., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Curry, W., Brook, E., Erickson, D., Jacob, R., Kutzbach, J., and Cheng, J.: Transient Simulation of Last Deglaciation with a New Mechanism for Bølling-Allerød Warming, Science, 325, 310–314, 2009. a
Lohmann, J.: Prediction of Dansgaard-Oeschger Events From Greenland Dust Records, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 12427–12434, 2019. a
Lohmann, J. and Ditlevsen, P. D.: Risk of tipping the overturning circulation due to increasing rates of ice melt, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 118, e2017989118, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2017989118, 2021. a
Lohmann, J., Castellana, D., Ditlevsen, P. D., and Dijkstra, H. A.: Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 819–835, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-819-2021, 2021. a
Lough, J., Anderson, K., and Hughes, T.: Increasing thermal stress for tropical coral reefs: 1871–2017, Sci. Rep., 8, 6079, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-24530-9, 2018. a, b, c
Lovejoy, T. E. and Nobre, C.: Amazon tipping point, Sci. Adv., 4, eaat2340, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat2340, 2018. a
Lucarini, V. and Bódai, T.: Edge states in the climate system: exploring global instabilities and critical transitions, Nonlinearity, 30, R32–R66, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6544/aa6b11, 2017. a
MacAyeal, D. R.: Binge/purge oscillations of the Laurentide ice sheet as a cause of the North Atlantic's Heinrich events, Paleoceanography, 8, 775–784, 1993. a
Mahendra, N., Chowdary, J. S., Darshana, P., Sunitha, P., Parekh, A., and Gnanaseelan, C.: Interdecadal modulation of interannual ENSO-Indian summer monsoon rainfall teleconnections in observations and CMIP6 models: Regional patterns, Int. J. Climatol., 41, 2528–2552, 2021. a
Makarieva, A. M., Nefiodov, A. V., Nobre, A. D., Baudena, M., Bardi, U., Sheil, D., Saleska, S. R., Molina, R. D., and Rammig, A.: The role of ecosystem transpiration in creating alternate moisture regimes by influencing atmospheric moisture convergence, Glob. Change Biol., 29, 2536–2556, 2023. a
Manabe, S. and Stouffer, R. J.: Simulation of abrupt climate change induced by freshwater input to the North Atlantic Ocean, Nature, 378, 165–167, 1995. a
Marcott, S. A., Bauska, T. K., Buizert, C., Steig, E. J., Rosen, J. L., Cuffey, K. M., Fudge, T., Severinghaus, J. P., Ahn, J., Kalk, M. L., McConnell, J. R., Sowers, T., Taylor, K. C., White, J. W., and Brook, E. J.: Centennial-scale changes in the global carbon cycle during the last deglaciation, Nature, 514, 616–619, 2014. a
Martin, T. and Biastoch, A.: On the ocean's response to enhanced Greenland runoff in model experiments: relevance of mesoscale dynamics and atmospheric coupling, Ocean Sci., 19, 141–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-141-2023, 2023. a
Martrat, B., Grimalt, J. O., Shackleton, N. J., de Abreu, L., Hutterli, M. A., and Stocker, T. F.: Four climate cycles of recurring deep and surface water destabilizations on the Iberian margin, Science, 317, 502–507, 2007. a
Masson-Delmotte, V. P., Zhai, A., Pirani, S., Connors, C., Péan, S., Berger, N., Caud, Y., Chen, L., Goldfarb, M., Gomis, M., Huang, K., Leitzell, E., Lonnoy, J., Matthews, T., Maycock, T., Waterfield, O., Yelekci, R. Y., and Zhou, B. E.: IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, 2021. a, b, c, d
Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Edenhofer, O., Stocker, T. F., Field, C. B., Ebi, K. L., and Matschoss, P. R.: The IPCC AR5 guidance note on consistent treatment of uncertainties: a common approach across the working groups, Climatic Change, 108, 675–691, 2011. a
Max, L., Nürnberg, D., Chiessi, C. M., Lenz, M. M., and Mulitza, S.: Subsurface ocean warming preceded Heinrich Events, Nat. Commun., 13, 4217, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-31754-x, 2022. a
McGowan, H. and Theobald, A.: Atypical weather patterns cause coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia during the 2021–2022 La Niña, Sci. Rep., 13, 6397, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-33613-1, 2023. a
McManus, J. F., Francois, R., Gherardi, J.-M., Keigwin, L. D., and Brown-Leger, S.: Collapse and rapid resumption of Atlantic meridional circulation linked to deglacial climate changes, Nature, 428, 834–837, 2004. a
McPhaden, M. J., Zebiak, S. E., and Glantz, M. H.: ENSO as an integrating concept in earth science, Science, 314, 1740–1745, 2006. a
Muñiz-Castillo, A. I., Rivera-Sosa, A., Chollett, I., Eakin, C. M., Andrade-Gómez, L., McField, M., and Arias-González, J. E.: Three decades of heat stress exposure in Caribbean coral reefs: a new regional delineation to enhance conservation, Sci. Rep., 9, 11013, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-47307-0, 2019. a, b, c
Muntjewerf, L., Petrini, M., Vizcaino, M., Ernani da Silva, C., Sellevold, R., Scherrenberg, M. D., Thayer-Calder, K., Bradley, S. L., Lenaerts, J. T., Lipscomb, W. H., and Lofverstrom, M.: Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to 21st century sea level rise as simulated by the coupled CESM2, 1-CISM2, 1, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086836, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086836, 2020. a, b
NEEM community members: Eemian interglacial reconstructed from a Greenland folded ice core, Nature, 493, 489–494, 2013. a
Nian, D., Bathiany, S., Ben-Yami, M., Blaschke, L. L., Hirota, M., Rodrigues, R. R., and Boers, N.: A potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may stabilise eastern Amazonian rainforests, Communications Earth and Environment, 4, p. 470, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01123-7, 2023. a, b
Nicolas, J. P., Vogelmann, A. M., Scott, R. C., Wilson, A. B., Cadeddu, M. P., Bromwich, D. H., Verlinde, J., Lubin, D., Russell, L. M., Jenkinson, C., Powers, H. H., Ryczek, M., Stone, G., and Wille, J. D.: January 2016 extensive summer melt in West Antarctica favoured by strong El Niño, Nat. Commun., 8, 15799, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms15799, 2017. a, b
Niederdrenk, A. L. and Notz, D.: Arctic sea ice in a 1.5 ∘C warmer world, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 1963–1971, 2018. a
Nielsen, D. M., Dobrynin, M., Baehr, J., Razumov, S., and Grigoriev, M.: Coastal erosion variability at the southern Laptev Sea linked to winter sea ice and the Arctic Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086876, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086876, 2020. a
Nilsson-Kerr, K., Anand, P., Sexton, P., Leng, M., Misra, S., Clemens, S., and Hammond, S.: Role of Asian summer monsoon subsystems in the inter-hemispheric progression of deglaciation, Nat. Geosci., 12, 290–295, 2019. a
Nilsson-Kerr, K., Anand, P., Sexton, P. F., Leng, M. J., and Naidu, P. D.: Indian Summer Monsoon variability 140–70 thousand years ago based on multi-proxy records from the Bay of Bengal, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 279, 107403, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107403, 2022. a
Nitzbon, J., Westermann, S., Langer, M., Martin, L. C., Strauss, J., Laboor, S., and Boike, J.: Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate, Nat. Commun., 11, 2201, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8, 2020. a, b
Nobre, C. A., Sampaio, G., Borma, L. S., Castilla-Rubio, J. C., Silva, J. S., and Cardoso, M.: Land-use and climate change risks in the Amazon and the need of a novel sustainable development paradigm, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 10759–10768, 2016. a
Noël, B., van de Berg, W. J., van Wessem, J. M., van Meijgaard, E., van As, D., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Lhermitte, S., Kuipers Munneke, P., Smeets, C. J. P. P., van Ulft, L. H., van de Wal, R. S. W., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 – Part 1: Greenland (1958–2016), The Cryosphere, 12, 811–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-811-2018, 2018. a
North Greenland Ice Core Project members (NGRIP): High-resolution record of Northern Hemisphere climate extending into the last interglacial period, Nature, 431, 147–151, 2004. a
Notz, D. and Stroeve, J.: Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission, Science, 354, 747–750, 2016. a
Novello, V. F., Cruz, F. W., Vuille, M., Stríkis, N. M., Edwards, R. L., Cheng, H., Emerick, S., De Paula, M. S., Li, X., Barreto, E. D. S., Karmann, I., and Santos, R. V.: A high-resolution history of the South American Monsoon from Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene, Sci. Rep., 7, 44267, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep44267, 2017. a
Obura, D. O., Bigot, L., and Benzoni, F.: Coral responses to a repeat bleaching event in Mayotte in 2010, PeerJ, 6, e5305, https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.5305, 2018. a
Onarheim, I. H., Eldevik, T., Årthun, M., Ingvaldsen, R. B., and Smedsrud, L. H.: Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 5364–5371, 2015. a
Palacio-Castro, A. M., Smith, T. B., Brandtneris, V., Snyder, G. A., van Hooidonk, R., Maté, J. L., Manzello, D., Glynn, P. W., Fong, P., and Baker, A. C.: Increased dominance of heat-tolerant symbionts creates resilient coral reefs in near-term ocean warming, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 120, e2202388120, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2202388120, 2023. a
Pandey, P., Dwivedi, S., Goswami, B., and Kucharski, F.: A new perspective on ENSO-Indian summer monsoon rainfall relationship in a warming environment, Clim. Dynam., 55, 3307–3326, 2020. a
Pearl, J.: Bayesian networks: A model of self-activated memory for evidential reasoning, in: Proceedings of the 7th conference of the Cognitive Science Society, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA, 1–14, 1985. a
Pohl, A., Donnadieu, Y., Le Hir, G., Ladant, J.-B., Dumas, C., Alvarez-Solas, J., and Vandenbroucke, T. R.: Glacial onset predated Late Ordovician climate cooling, Paleoceanography, 31, 800–821, 2016. a
Pollard, D.: A retrospective look at coupled ice sheet–climate modeling, Climatic Change, 100, 173–194, 2010. a
Polyakov, I. V., Pnyushkov, A. V., Alkire, M. B., Ashik, I. M., Baumann, T. M., Carmack, E. C., Goszczko, I., Guthrie, J., Ivanov, V. V., Kanzow, T., Krishfield, R., Kwok, R., Sundfjord, A., Morison, J., Rember, R., and Yulin, A.: Greater role for Atlantic inflows on sea-ice loss in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean, Science, 356, 285–291, 2017. a
Popp, M., Schmidt, H., and Marotzke, J.: Transition to a moist greenhouse with CO2 and solar forcing, Nat. Commun., 7, 10627, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10627, 2016. a
Pöppelmeier, F., Joos, F., and Stocker, T. F.: The Coupled Ice Sheet–Earth System Model Bern3D v3. 0, J. Clim., 36, 7563–7582, 2023. a
Prado, L. F., Wainer, I., Chiessi, C. M., Ledru, M.-P., and Turcq, B.: A mid-Holocene climate reconstruction for eastern South America, Clim. Past, 9, 2117–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2117-2013, 2013. a
Praetorius, S. K., Mix, A. C., Walczak, M., Wolhowe, M. D., Addison, J. A., and Prahl, F. G.: North Pacific deglacial hypoxic events linked to abrupt ocean warming, Nature, 527, 362–366, 2015. a
Quiquet, A., Roche, D. M., Dumas, C., Bouttes, N., and Lhardy, F.: Climate and ice sheet evolutions from the last glacial maximum to the pre-industrial period with an ice-sheet–climate coupled model, Clim. Past, 17, 2179–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2179-2021, 2021. a
Rae, J. G. L., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Edwards, T. L., Fettweis, X., Gregory, J. M., Hewitt, H. T., Lowe, J. A., Lucas-Picher, P., Mottram, R. H., Payne, A. J., Ridley, J. K., Shannon, S. R., van de Berg, W. J., van de Wal, R. S. W., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance: evaluating simulations and making projections with regional climate models, The Cryosphere, 6, 1275–1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-6-1275-2012, 2012. a
Rahmstorf, S.: On the freshwater forcing and transport of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Clim. Dynam., 12, 799–811, 1996. a
Reichart, G.-J., Lourens, L., and Zachariasse, W.: Temporal variability in the northern Arabian Sea oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) during the last 225,000 years, Paleoceanography, 13, 607–621, 1998. a
Rietkerk, M., Bastiaansen, R., Banerjee, S., van de Koppel, J., Baudena, M., and Doelman, A.: Evasion of tipping in complex systems through spatial pattern formation, Science, 374, eabj0359, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abj0359, 2021. a, b
Ritchie, P. D., Clarke, J. J., Cox, P. M., and Huntingford, C.: Overshooting tipping point thresholds in a changing climate, Nature, 592, 517–523, 2021. a
Rosier, S. H. R., Reese, R., Donges, J. F., De Rydt, J., Gudmundsson, G. H., and Winkelmann, R.: The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, The Cryosphere, 15, 1501–1516, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021, 2021. a
Runge, J., Petoukhov, V., Donges, J. F., Hlinka, J., Jajcay, N., Vejmelka, M., Hartman, D., Marwan, N., Paluš, M., and Kurths, J.: Identifying causal gateways and mediators in complex spatio-temporal systems, Nat. Commun., 6, 1–10, 2015. a
Runge, J., Bathiany, S., Bollt, E., Camps-Valls, G., Coumou, D., Deyle, E., Glymour, C., Kretschmer, M., Mahecha, M. D., Muñoz-Marí, J., van Nes, E., Peters, J., Quax, R., Reichstein, M., Scheffer, M., Schölkopf, B., Spirtes, P., Sugihara, G., Sun, J., Zhang, K., and Zscheischler, J.: Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences, Nat. Commun., 10, 2553, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10105-3, 2019a. a
Runge, J., Nowack, P., Kretschmer, M., Flaxman, S., and Sejdinovic, D.: Detecting and quantifying causal associations in large nonlinear time series datasets, Sci. Adv., 5, eaau4996, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau4996, 2019b. a
Ruth, U., Bigler, M., Röthlisberger, R., Siggaard-Andersen, M.-L., Kipfstuhl, S., Goto-Azuma, K., Hansson, M. E., Johnsen, S. J., Lu, H., and Steffensen, J. P.: Ice core evidence for a very tight link between North Atlantic and east Asian glacial climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L03706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027876, 2007. a
Sadai, S., Condron, A., DeConto, R., and Pollard, D.: Future climate response to Antarctic Ice Sheet melt caused by anthropogenic warming, Sci. Adv., 6, eaaz1169, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz1169, 2020. a
Sadatzki, H., Maffezzoli, N., Dokken, T. M., Simon, M. H., Berben, S. M. P., Fahl, K., Kjær, H. A., Spolaor, A., Stein, R., Vallelonga, P., Vinther, B. M., and Jansen, E.: Rapid reductions and millennial-scale variability in Nordic Seas sea ice cover during abrupt glacial climate changes, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 29478–29486, 2020. a
Schannwell, C., Mikolajewicz, U., Ziemen, F., and Kapsch, M.-L.: Sensitivity of Heinrich-type ice-sheet surge characteristics to boundary forcing perturbations, Clim. Past, 19, 179–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-179-2023, 2023. a, b
Scherrenberg, M. D. W., Berends, C. J., Stap, L. B., and van de Wal, R. S. W.: Modelling feedbacks between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and climate during the last glacial cycle, Clim. Past, 19, 399–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-399-2023, 2023. a
Schleussner, C.-F., Lissner, T. K., Fischer, E. M., Wohland, J., Perrette, M., Golly, A., Rogelj, J., Childers, K., Schewe, J., Frieler, K., Mengel, M., Hare, W., and Schaeffer, M.: Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 ∘C and 2 ∘C, Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 327–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016, 2016. a
Schneider, T., Bischoff, T., and Haug, G. H.: Migrations and dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone, Nature, 513, 45–53, 2014. a
Schneider, T., Kaul, C. M., and Pressel, K. G.: Possible climate transitions from breakup of stratocumulus decks under greenhouse warming, Nat. Geosci., 12, 163–167, 2019. a
Schoof, C.: Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: Steady states, stability, and hysteresis, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 112, 1–19, 2007. a
Schutz, B. E., Zwally, H. J., Shuman, C. A., Hancock, D., and DiMarzio, J. P.: Overview of the ICESat mission, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L21S01, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024009, 2005. a
Schwinger, J., Asaadi, A., Steinert, N. J., and Lee, H.: Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1641–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022, 2022. a, b
Severinghaus, J. P. and Brook, E. J.: Abrupt climate change at the end of the last glacial period inferred from trapped air in polar ice, Science, 286, 930–934, 1999. a
Shackleton, N. J., Hall, M. A., and Vincent, E.: Phase relationships between millennial-scale events 64,000–24,000 years ago, Paleoceanography, 15, 565–569, 2000. a
Shin, Y. and Kang, S. M.: How Does the High-Latitude Thermal Forcing in One Hemisphere Affect the Other Hemisphere?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL095870, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095870, 2021. a
Sinet, S., von der Heydt, A., and Dijkstra, H.: AMOC stabilization under the interaction with tipping polar ice sheets, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL100305, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100305, 2023. a, b, c
Slingo, J., Bates, P., Bauer, P., Belcher, S., Palmer, T., Stephens, G., Stevens, B., Stocker, T., and Teutsch, G.: Ambitious partnership needed for reliable climate prediction, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 499–503, 2022. a
Solomon, A., Heuzé, C., Rabe, B., Bacon, S., Bertino, L., Heimbach, P., Inoue, J., Iovino, D., Mottram, R., Zhang, X., Aksenov, Y., McAdam, R., Nguyen, A., Raj, R. P., and Tang, H.: Freshwater in the Arctic Ocean 2010–2019, Ocean Sci., 17, 1081–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1081-2021, 2021. a
Srivastava, G., Chakraborty, A., and Nanjundiah, R. S.: Multidecadal see-saw of the impact of ENSO on Indian and West African summer monsoon rainfall, Clim. Dynam., 52, 6633–6649, 2019. a
Srokosz, M. and Bryden, H.: Observing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation yields a decade of inevitable surprises, Science, 348, 1255575, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1255575, 2015. a
Staal, A., Tuinenburg, O. A., Bosmans, J. H., Holmgren, M., van Nes, E. H., Scheffer, M., Zemp, D. C., and Dekker, S. C.: Forest-rainfall cascades buffer against drought across the Amazon, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 539–543, 2018. a
Stainforth, D. A., Downing, T. E., Washington, R., Lopez, A., and New, M.: Issues in the interpretation of climate model ensembles to inform decisions, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 365, 2163–2177, 2007. a
Steffen, W.: Introducing the Anthropocene: The Human Epoch, Ambio, 50, 1784–1787, 2021. a
Steffen, W., Rockström, J., Richardson, K., Lenton, T. M., Folke, C., Liverman, D., Summerhayes, C. P., Barnosky, A. D., Cornell, S. E., Crucifix, M., Donges, J. F., Fetzer, I., Lade, S. J., Scheffer, M., Winkelmann, R., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 115, 8252–8259, 2018. a, b, c, d, e
Steffensen, J. P., Andersen, K. K., Bigler, M., Clausen, H. B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Fischer, H., Goto-Azuma, K., Hansson, M., Johnsen, S. J., Jouzel, J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Popp, T., Rasmussen, S. O., Röthlisberger, R., Ruth, U., Stauffer, B., Siggaard-Andersen, M.-L., Árný E. Sveinbjörnsdóttir, Svensson, A., and White, J. W. C.: High-Resolution Greenland Ice Core Data Show Abrupt Climate Change Happens in Few Years, Science, 321, 680–684, 2008. a
Stocker, T. F. and Johnsen, S. J.: A minimum thermodynamic model for the bipolar seesaw, Paleoceanography, 18, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003PA000920, 2003. a, b, c
Stouffer, R. J., Yin, J.-j., Gregory, J., Dixon, K., Spelman, M., Hurlin, W., Weaver, A., Eby, M., Flato, G., Hasumi, H., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J., Kamenkovich, I., Levermann, A., Montoya, M., Murakami, S., Nawrath, S., Oka, A., Peltier, W., Robitaille, D., Sokolov, A., Vettoretti, G., and Weber, S.: Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes, J. Clim., 19, 1365–1387, 2006. a, b, c, d
Sun, Y., Clemens, S. C., Morrill, C., Lin, X., Wang, X., and An, Z.: Influence of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on the East Asian winter monsoon, Nat. Geosci., 5, 46–49, 2012. a
Sutter, J., Jones, A., Frölicher, T., Wirths, C., and Stocker, T.: Climate intervention on a high-emissions pathway could delay but not prevent West Antarctic Ice Sheet demise, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 951–960, 2023. a
Svendsen, L., Kvamstø, N. G., and Keenlyside, N.: Weakening AMOC connects equatorial Atlantic and Pacific interannual variability, Clim. Dynam., 43, 2931–2941, 2014. a
Swingedouw, D., Braconnot, P., and Marti, O.: Sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to the melting from northern glaciers in climate change experiments, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L07711, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025765, 2006. a
Swingedouw, D., Braconnot, P., Delécluse, P., Guilyardi, E., and Marti, O.: Quantifying the AMOC feedbacks during a 2× CO2 stabilization experiment with land-ice melting, Clim. Dynam., 29, 521–534, 2007. a
Swingedouw, D., Fichefet, T., Huybrechts, P., Goosse, H., Driesschaert, E., and Loutre, M.-F.: Antarctic ice-sheet melting provides negative feedbacks on future climate warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034410, 2008. a, b, c
Swingedouw, D., Houssais, M.-N., Herbaut, C., Blaizot, A.-C., Devilliers, M., and Deshayes, J.: AMOC recent and future trends: a crucial role for oceanic resolution and Greenland melting?, Front. Clim., 4, 838310, https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.838310, 2022. a
Thomas, Z. A., Jones, R. T., Turney, C. S., Golledge, N., Fogwill, C., Bradshaw, C. J., Menviel, L., McKay, N. P., Bird, M., Palmer, J., Kershaw, P., Wilmshurst, J., and Muscheler, R.: Tipping elements and amplified polar warming during the Last Interglacial, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 233, 106222, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106222, 2020. a
Tietsche, S., Notz, D., Jungclaus, J., and Marotzke, J.: Recovery mechanisms of Arctic summer sea ice, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L02707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL045698, 2011. a
Tigchelaar, M., von der Heydt, A. S., and Dijkstra, H. A.: A new mechanism for the two-step δ18O signal at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary, Clim. Past, 7, 235–247, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-7-235-2011, 2011. a, b
Timmermann, A., Okumura, Y., An, S.-I., Clement, A., Dong, B., Guilyardi, E., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J., Renold, M., Stocker, T. F., Stouffer, R., Sutton, R., Xie, S.-P., and Yin, J.: The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO, J. Clim., 20, 4899–4919, 2007. a, b, c
Timmermann, A., An, S.-I., Kug, J.-S., Jin, F.-F., Cai, W., Capotondi, A., Cobb, K. M., Lengaigne, M., McPhaden, M. J., Stuecker, M. F., Stein, K., Wittenberg, A. T., Yun, K.-S., Bayr, T., Chen, H.-C., Chikamoto, Y., Dewitte, B., Dommenget, D., Grothe, P., Guilyardi, E., Ham, Y.-G., Hayashi, M., Ineson, S., Kang, D., Kim, S., Kim, W., Leet, J.-Y., Li, T., Lua, J.-J., McGregor, S., Planton, Y., Power, S., Rashid, H., Ren, H.-L., Santoso, A., Takahashi, K., Todd, A., Wang, G., Wang, G., Xie, R., Yang, W.-H., Yeh, S.-W., Yoon, J., Zeller, E., and Zhang, X.: El Niño–southern oscillation complexity, Nature, 559, 535–545, 2018. a
Toumoulin, A., Tardif, D., Donnadieu, Y., Licht, A., Ladant, J.-B., Kunzmann, L., and Dupont-Nivet, G.: Evolution of continental temperature seasonality from the Eocene greenhouse to the Oligocene icehouse –a model–data comparison, Clim. Past, 18, 341–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-341-2022, 2022. a
van Kampenhout, L., Rhoades, A. M., Herrington, A. R., Zarzycki, C. M., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Sacks, W. J., and van den Broeke, M. R.: Regional grid refinement in an Earth system model: impacts on the simulated Greenland surface mass balance, The Cryosphere, 13, 1547–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1547-2019, 2019. a
Van Nes, E. H., Scheffer, M., Brovkin, V., Lenton, T. M., Ye, H., Deyle, E., and Sugihara, G.: Causal feedbacks in climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 445–448, 2015. a
Vannitsem, S., Dalaiden, Q., and Goosse, H.: Testing for dynamical dependence: Application to the surface mass balance over Antarctica, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 12125–12135, 2019. a
Vettoretti, G., Ditlevsen, P., Jochum, M., and Rasmussen, S. O.: Atmospheric CO2 control of spontaneous millennial-scale ice age climate oscillations, Nat. Geosci., 15, 300–306, 2022. a
Via, R. K. and Thomas, D. J.: Evolution of Atlantic thermohaline circulation: Early Oligocene onset of deep-water production in the North Atlantic, Geology, 34, 441–444, 2006. a
Voigt, A. and Marotzke, J.: The transition from the present-day climate to a modern Snowball Earth, Clim. Dynam., 35, 887–905, 2010. a
Wang, G., Cai, W., Gan, B., Wu, L., Santoso, A., Lin, X., Chen, Z., and McPhaden, M. J.: Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 ∘ warming stabilization, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 568–572, 2017. a
Wang, S., Foster, A., Lenz, E. A., Kessler, J. D., Stroeve, J. C., Anderson, L. O., Turetsky, M., Betts, R., Zou, S., Liu, W., Boos, W. R., and Hausfather, Z.: Mechanisms and impacts of Earth system tipping elements, Rev. Geophys., 61, e2021RG000757, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021RG000757, 2023. a, b, c
Wang, X., Auler, A. S., Edwards, R. L., Cheng, H., Cristalli, P. S., Smart, P. L., Richards, D. A., and Shen, C.-C.: Wet periods in northeastern Brazil over the past 210 kyr linked to distant climate anomalies, Nature, 432, 740–743, 2004. a
Weaver, A. J., Saenko, O. A., Clark, P. U., and Mitrovica, J. X.: Meltwater pulse 1A from Antarctica as a trigger of the Bølling-Allerød warm interval, Science, 299, 1709–1713, 2003. a
Weertman, J.: Stability of the junction of an ice sheet and an ice shelf, J. Glaciol., 13, 3–11, 1974. a
Westerhold, T., Marwan, N., Drury, A. J., Liebrand, D., Agnini, C., Anagnostou, E., Barnet, J. S. K., Bohaty, S. M., Vleeschouwer, D. D., Florindo, F., Frederichs, T., Hodell, D. A., Holbourn, A. E., Kroon, D., Lauretano, V., Littler, K., Lourens, L. J., Lyle, M., Pälike, H., Röhl, U., Tian, J., Wilkens, R. H., Wilson, P. A., and Zachos, J. C.: An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years, Science, 369, 1383–1387, 2020. a
Willeit, M., Ganopolski, A., Robinson, A., and Edwards, N. R.: The Earth system model CLIMBER-X v1.0 – Part 1: Climate model description and validation, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5905–5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, 2022. a, b
Williamson, M. S., Collins, M., Drijfhout, S. S., Kahana, R., Mecking, J. V., and Lenton, T. M.: Effect of AMOC collapse on ENSO in a high resolution general circulation model, Clim. Dynam., 50, 2537–2552, 2018. a
Winkelmann, R., Donges, J. F., Smith, E. K., Milkoreit, M., Eder, C., Heitzig, J., Katsanidou, A., Wiedermann, M., Wunderling, N., and Lenton, T. M.: Social tipping processes towards climate action: a conceptual framework, Ecol. Econ., 192, 107242, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107242, 2022. a
Wolff, E. W., Chappellaz, J., Blunier, T., Rasmussen, S. O., and Svensson, A.: Millennial-scale variability during the last glacial: The ice core record, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 2828–2838, 2010. a
Wood, R. A., Rodríguez, J. M., Smith, R. S., Jackson, L. C., and Hawkins, E.: Observable, low-order dynamical controls on thresholds of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Clim. Dynam., 53, 6815–6834, 2019. a
Wunderling, N., Donges, J. F., Kurths, J., and Winkelmann, R.: Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, 2021. a, b, c
Wunderling, N., Krönke, J., Wohlfarth, V., Kohler, J., Heitzig, J., Staal, A., Willner, S., Winkelmann, R., and Donges, J. F.: Modelling nonlinear dynamics of interacting tipping elements on complex networks: the PyCascades package, Eur. Phys. J.-Spec. Top., 230, 3163–3176, 2021b. a
Wunderling, N., Staal, A., Sakschewski, B., Hirota, M., Tuinenburg, O. A., Donges, J. F., Barbosa, H. M., and Winkelmann, R.: Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 119, e2120777119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120777119, 2022. a
Zebiak, S. E. and Cane, M. A.: A model el niñ–southern oscillation, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 2262–2278, 1987. a
Zemp, D. C., Schleussner, C.-F., Barbosa, H. M., Hirota, M., Montade, V., Sampaio, G., Staal, A., Wang-Erlandsson, L., and Rammig, A.: Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks, Nat. Commun., 8, 1–10, 2017. a
Zhang, N., Feng, M., Hendon, H. H., Hobday, A. J., and Zinke, J.: Opposite polarities of ENSO drive distinct patterns of coral bleaching potentials in the southeast Indian Ocean, Sci. Rep., 7, 2443, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-02688-y, 2017. a
Zhang, X., He, J., Zhang, J., Polyakov, I., Gerdes, R., Inoue, J., and Wu, P.: Enhanced poleward moisture transport and amplified northern high-latitude wetting trend, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 47–51, 2013. a
Ziemen, F. A., Kapsch, M.-L., Klockmann, M., and Mikolajewicz, U.: Heinrich events show two-stage climate response in transient glacial simulations, Clim. Past, 15, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-153-2019, 2019. a
Zular, A., Sawakuchi, A. O., Chiessi, C. M., d’Horta, F. M., Cruz, F. W., Demattê, J. A. M., Ribas, C. C., Hartmann, G. A., Giannini, P. C. F., and Soares, E. A. A.: The role of abrupt climate change in the formation of an open vegetation enclave in northern Amazonia during the late Quaternary, Glob. Planet. Change, 172, 140–149, 2019. a
Download
- Article
(3453 KB) - Full-text XML
Short summary
This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements...
Special issue
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint