Articles | Volume 15, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review
| 
26 Jan 2024
Review |
| 26 Jan 2024
| 26 Jan 2024
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review
Nico Wunderling
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Earth System Analysis and Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
Anna S. von der Heydt
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Physics, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Yevgeny Aksenov
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, United Kingdom
Stephen Barker
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, United Kingdom
Robbin Bastiaansen
Department of Physics, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Department of Mathematics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Victor Brovkin
Department of Climate Dynamics, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Maura Brunetti
Group of Applied Physics and Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
Victor Couplet
Earth and Life Institute, UCLouvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Thomas Kleinen
Department of Climate Dynamics, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Caroline H. Lear
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, United Kingdom
Johannes Lohmann
Physics of Ice, Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta
European Commission, Joint Research Center, Sustainable Resources, Forests and Bioeconomy Unit., Ispra, Italy
Sacha Sinet
Department of Physics, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Didier Swingedouw
Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC), Univ. Bordeaux, CNRS, Bordeaux INP, France
Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth System Analysis and Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Pallavi Anand
School of Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Milton Keynes, United Kingdom
Jonathan Barichivich
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile
Sebastian Bathiany
Earth System Analysis and Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany
Mara Baudena
Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), CNR, Torino, Italy
National Biodiversity Future Center, Palermo, Italy
John T. Bruun
Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Cristiano M. Chiessi
School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
Helen K. Coxall
Department of Geological Science, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
The Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm, Sweden
David Docquier
Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Brussels, Belgium
Jonathan F. Donges
Earth System Analysis and Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
Swinda K. J. Falkena
Department of Physics, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Ann Kristin Klose
Earth System Analysis and Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
David Obura
CORDIO East Africa, Mombasa, Kenya
Juan Rocha
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Anthropocene Laboratory, The Swedish Royal Academy of Science, Stockholm, Sweden
Stefanie Rynders
National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, United Kingdom
Norman Julius Steinert
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
Matteo Willeit
Earth System Analysis and Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
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Cited
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Two decades of climate tipping points research: Progress and outlook D. Armstrong McKay 10.1177/29768659241293272
- Quasi-biennial oscillation: laboratory experiments B. Semin & F. Pétrelis 10.5802/crphys.195
- AMOC stability amid tipping ice sheets: the crucial role of rate and noise S. Sinet et al. 10.5194/esd-15-859-2024
- Polar ice sheets are decisive contributors to uncertainty in climate tipping projections J. Rosser et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01799-5
- Reflecting on the Science of Climate Tipping Points to Inform and Assist Policy Making and Address the Risks they Pose to Society T. Stocker et al. 10.1007/s10712-024-09844-w
- Alternative climatic steady states near the Permian–Triassic Boundary C. Ragon et al. 10.1038/s41598-024-76432-8
- Weaker Atlantic overturning circulation increases the vulnerability of northern Amazon forests T. Akabane et al. 10.1038/s41561-024-01578-z
- Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization V. Spaiser et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024
- Eco-anxiety and a Desire for Hope: A Composite Article on the Impacts of Climate Change in Environmental Education S. Jukes et al. 10.1017/aee.2024.65
- Early warning signals for bifurcations embedded in high dimensions D. Dylewsky et al. 10.1038/s41598-024-68177-1
- Regime switching in coupled nonlinear systems: Sources, prediction, and control—Minireview and perspective on the Focus Issue I. Franović et al. 10.1063/5.0247498
- The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth W. Ripple et al. 10.1093/biosci/biae087
- Exploring tropical forest aboveground carbon dynamics via modelled landscapes of varied food production, past and present S. Los et al. 10.1002/ppp3.10608
- Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation P. Friedlingstein et al. 10.3389/fclim.2024.1480208
- Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks T. Möller et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Two decades of climate tipping points research: Progress and outlook D. Armstrong McKay 10.1177/29768659241293272
- Quasi-biennial oscillation: laboratory experiments B. Semin & F. Pétrelis 10.5802/crphys.195
- AMOC stability amid tipping ice sheets: the crucial role of rate and noise S. Sinet et al. 10.5194/esd-15-859-2024
- Polar ice sheets are decisive contributors to uncertainty in climate tipping projections J. Rosser et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01799-5
- Reflecting on the Science of Climate Tipping Points to Inform and Assist Policy Making and Address the Risks they Pose to Society T. Stocker et al. 10.1007/s10712-024-09844-w
- Alternative climatic steady states near the Permian–Triassic Boundary C. Ragon et al. 10.1038/s41598-024-76432-8
- Weaker Atlantic overturning circulation increases the vulnerability of northern Amazon forests T. Akabane et al. 10.1038/s41561-024-01578-z
- Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization V. Spaiser et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024
- Eco-anxiety and a Desire for Hope: A Composite Article on the Impacts of Climate Change in Environmental Education S. Jukes et al. 10.1017/aee.2024.65
- Early warning signals for bifurcations embedded in high dimensions D. Dylewsky et al. 10.1038/s41598-024-68177-1
- Regime switching in coupled nonlinear systems: Sources, prediction, and control—Minireview and perspective on the Focus Issue I. Franović et al. 10.1063/5.0247498
- The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth W. Ripple et al. 10.1093/biosci/biae087
- Exploring tropical forest aboveground carbon dynamics via modelled landscapes of varied food production, past and present S. Los et al. 10.1002/ppp3.10608
- Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation P. Friedlingstein et al. 10.3389/fclim.2024.1480208
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 13 Dec 2024
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Short summary
This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements relevant for current global warming pathways. We find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 °C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpasses 2.0 °C.
This paper maps out the state-of-the-art literature on interactions between tipping elements...
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