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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 7, issue 2
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 313–326, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-313-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 313–326, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-313-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 13 Apr 2016

Research article | 13 Apr 2016

Early warning signals of tipping points in periodically forced systems

Mark S. Williamson et al.

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Cited articles

Armour, K. C., Eisenman, I., Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., McCusker, K. E., and Bitz, C. M.: The reversibility of sea ice loss in a state-of-the-art climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L16705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048739, 2011.
Bathiany, S., van der Bolt, B., Williamson, M. S., Lenton, T. M., Scheffer, M., van Nes, E., and Notz, D.: Trends in sea-ice variability on the way to an ice-free Arctic, The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2015-209, in review, 2016.
Budyko, M. I.: The effect of solar radiation variations on the climate of the Earth, Tellus, 21, 611–619, 1969.
Chapman, W. and National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (Eds.): The Climate Data Guide: Walsh and Chapman Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice, retrieved from https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/walsh-and-chapman-northern-hemisphere-sea-ice, available at: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008, 2015.
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Short summary
We find early warnings of abrupt changes in complex dynamical systems such as the climate where the usual early warning indicators do not work. In particular, these are systems that are periodically forced, for example by the annual cycle of solar insolation. We show these indicators are good theoretically in a general setting then apply them to a specific system, that of the Arctic sea ice, which has been conjectured to be close to such a tipping point. We do not find evidence of it.
We find early warnings of abrupt changes in complex dynamical systems such as the climate where...
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