Early warning signals of tipping points in periodically forced systems

Williamson, Mark S.; Bathiany, Sebastian; Lenton, Timothy M.

doi:10.5194/esd-7-313-2016

Articles | Volume 7, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-313-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-313-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 7, issue 2

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

13 Apr 2016

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 13 Apr 2016

Early warning signals of tipping points in periodically forced systems

Mark S. Williamson, Sebastian Bathiany, and Timothy M. Lenton

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Mar 2016	16	0	16
Apr 2016	272	62	1	335
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Jun 2016	25	21	1	47
Jul 2016	22	11	3	36
Aug 2016	18	3	3	24
Sep 2016	14	10	1	25
Oct 2016	21	12	0	33
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Jan 2017	26	9	1	36
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Jun 2018	13	12	0	25
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Apr 2021	58	9	0	67
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Jan 2022	47	17	1	65
Feb 2022	39	7	2	48
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Dec 2022	47	12	0	59
Jan 2023	42	20	1	63
Feb 2023	38	8	1	47
Mar 2023	52	7	1	60
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Jun 2023	76	5	2	83
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Apr 2024	33	39	12	84
May 2024	22	15	1	38
Jun 2024	28	7	4	39
Jul 2024	27	13	4	44
Aug 2024	51	8	6	65
Sep 2024	28	12	2	42
Oct 2024	37	14	4	55
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Dec 2024	29	10	5	44
Jan 2025	24	5	1	30
Feb 2025	37	10	2	49
Mar 2025	29	10	2	41
Apr 2025	44	12	0	56
May 2025	47	16	4	67
Jun 2025	89	23	3	115
Jul 2025	57	24	6	87
Aug 2025	37	16	2	55
Sep 2025	56	13	1	70
Oct 2025	47	30	2	79
Nov 2025	42	13	2	57

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 06 Nov 2015)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Nov 2015	453	116	8	577
Dec 2015	26	40	3	69
Jan 2016	32	12	1	45
Feb 2016	31	13	1	45
Mar 2016	16	0	16
Apr 2016	272	62	1	335
May 2016	93	35	0	128
Jun 2016	25	21	1	47
Jul 2016	22	11	3	36
Aug 2016	18	3	3	24
Sep 2016	14	10	1	25
Oct 2016	21	12	0	33
Nov 2016	13	7	0	20
Dec 2016	8	2	1	11
Jan 2017	26	9	1	36
Feb 2017	19	5	2	26
Mar 2017	59	12	4	75
Apr 2017	56	16	9	81
May 2017	56	15	5	76
Jun 2017	49	13	0	62
Jul 2017	29	5	2	36
Aug 2017	19	6	0	25
Sep 2017	30	14	0	44
Oct 2017	25	20	0	45
Nov 2017	44	15	1	60
Dec 2017	20	12	1	33
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Feb 2018	25	9	5	39
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May 2018	17	9	1	27
Jun 2018	13	12	0	25
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Dec 2018	15	8	0	23
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Mar 2019	31	19	1	51
Apr 2019	40	0	40
May 2019	50	13	2	65
Jun 2019	45	10	4	59
Jul 2019	50	8	0	58
Aug 2019	44	8	1	53
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Nov 2019	55	2	0	57
Dec 2019	50	17	2	69
Jan 2020	54	9	0	63
Feb 2020	46	7	0	53
Mar 2020	56	12	1	69
Apr 2020	63	10	0	73
May 2020	74	7	1	82
Jun 2020	64	12	1	77
Jul 2020	68	32	31	131
Aug 2020	59	10	4	73
Sep 2020	67	8	0	75
Oct 2020	45	10	1	56
Nov 2020	36	10	0	46
Dec 2020	72	12	1	85
Jan 2021	92	15	0	107
Feb 2021	54	8	0	62
Mar 2021	58	15	0	73
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Aug 2021	46	11	1	58
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Nov 2021	46	35	1	82
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May 2022	36	6	11	53
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Jul 2022	44	7	0	51
Aug 2022	52	12	12	76
Sep 2022	41	10	0	51
Oct 2022	53	8	3	64
Nov 2022	48	11	0	59
Dec 2022	47	12	0	59
Jan 2023	42	20	1	63
Feb 2023	38	8	1	47
Mar 2023	52	7	1	60
Apr 2023	39	7	0	46
May 2023	57	16	2	75
Jun 2023	76	5	2	83
Jul 2023	67	8	2	77
Aug 2023	42	7	1	50
Sep 2023	37	8	1	46
Oct 2023	45	18	1	64
Nov 2023	21	6	0	27
Dec 2023	27	5	2	34
Jan 2024	26	10	1	37
Feb 2024	9	17	1	27
Mar 2024	14	18	5	37
Apr 2024	33	39	12	84
May 2024	22	15	1	38
Jun 2024	28	7	4	39
Jul 2024	27	13	4	44
Aug 2024	51	8	6	65
Sep 2024	28	12	2	42
Oct 2024	37	14	4	55
Nov 2024	11	11	0	22
Dec 2024	29	10	5	44
Jan 2025	24	5	1	30
Feb 2025	37	10	2	49
Mar 2025	29	10	2	41
Apr 2025	44	12	0	56
May 2025	47	16	4	67
Jun 2025	89	23	3	115
Jul 2025	57	24	6	87
Aug 2025	37	16	2	55
Sep 2025	56	13	1	70
Oct 2025	47	30	2	79
Nov 2025	42	13	2	57

Latest update: 28 Nov 2025

Short summary

We find early warnings of abrupt changes in complex dynamical systems such as the climate where the usual early warning indicators do not work. In particular, these are systems that are periodically forced, for example by the annual cycle of solar insolation. We show these indicators are good theoretically in a general setting then apply them to a specific system, that of the Arctic sea ice, which has been conjectured to be close to such a tipping point. We do not find evidence of it.