Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-313-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-313-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
13 Apr 2016
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 13 Apr 2016
Early warning signals of tipping points in periodically forced systems
Mark S. Williamson
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Earth System Science group, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Laver Building, North Park Road, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK
Sebastian Bathiany
Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Timothy M. Lenton
Earth System Science group, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Laver Building, North Park Road, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK
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Cited
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Concerning prognostic estimations on hazardous weather events: a road to nowhere or to home? Y. Kolokolov & A. Monovskaya
- A Practice-Oriented Bifurcation Analysis for Pulse Energy Converters. Part 5: A View Towards the Future Y. Kolokolov & A. Monovskaya
- Effective detection of early warning signal with power spectrum in climate change system Z. Chen et al.
- The Effect of Additive and Multiplicative Cyclic Perturbations on Noise-Induced Tipping Dynamics I. Khovanov & N. Khovanova
- Quantifying the parameter dependent basin of the unsafe regime of asymmetric Lévy-noise-induced critical transitions J. Ma et al.
- Abrupt Climate Change in an Oscillating World S. Bathiany et al.
- Slowing down critical transitions via Gaussian white noise and periodic force J. Ma et al.
- Extending the climatological concept of ‘Detection and Attribution’ to global change ecology in the Anthropocene U. Büntgen et al.
- A chance to “cure” local climate systems and reconcile humanity with Nature Y. Kolokolov & A. Monovskaya
- Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation J. Lohmann et al.
- Tipping points in river deltas R. van de Vijsel et al.
- Computing resilience measures in dynamical systems A. Morr et al.
- Perturbation-response dynamics of coupled nonlinear systems G. Börner et al.
- Forecasting infectious disease emergence subject to seasonal forcing P. Miller et al.
- Detecting early-warning signals in periodically forced systems with noise J. Ma et al.
- Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability – prospects and limitations S. Bathiany et al.
- Heterogeneous capital stocks and economic inertia in the US economy D. Chester et al.
- Early warning signals of complex critical transitions in deterministic dynamics K. Evers et al.
- Beyond bifurcation: using complex models to understand and predict abrupt climate change S. Bathiany et al.
- Guess-Work and Reasonings on Centennial Evolution of Surface Air Temperature in Russia. Part V: Stability Margin Towards Emergency Y. Kolokolov & A. Monovskaya
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Concerning prognostic estimations on hazardous weather events: a road to nowhere or to home? Y. Kolokolov & A. Monovskaya
- A Practice-Oriented Bifurcation Analysis for Pulse Energy Converters. Part 5: A View Towards the Future Y. Kolokolov & A. Monovskaya
- Effective detection of early warning signal with power spectrum in climate change system Z. Chen et al.
- The Effect of Additive and Multiplicative Cyclic Perturbations on Noise-Induced Tipping Dynamics I. Khovanov & N. Khovanova
- Quantifying the parameter dependent basin of the unsafe regime of asymmetric Lévy-noise-induced critical transitions J. Ma et al.
- Abrupt Climate Change in an Oscillating World S. Bathiany et al.
- Slowing down critical transitions via Gaussian white noise and periodic force J. Ma et al.
- Extending the climatological concept of ‘Detection and Attribution’ to global change ecology in the Anthropocene U. Büntgen et al.
- A chance to “cure” local climate systems and reconcile humanity with Nature Y. Kolokolov & A. Monovskaya
- Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation J. Lohmann et al.
- Tipping points in river deltas R. van de Vijsel et al.
- Computing resilience measures in dynamical systems A. Morr et al.
- Perturbation-response dynamics of coupled nonlinear systems G. Börner et al.
- Forecasting infectious disease emergence subject to seasonal forcing P. Miller et al.
- Detecting early-warning signals in periodically forced systems with noise J. Ma et al.
- Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability – prospects and limitations S. Bathiany et al.
- Heterogeneous capital stocks and economic inertia in the US economy D. Chester et al.
- Early warning signals of complex critical transitions in deterministic dynamics K. Evers et al.
- Beyond bifurcation: using complex models to understand and predict abrupt climate change S. Bathiany et al.
- Guess-Work and Reasonings on Centennial Evolution of Surface Air Temperature in Russia. Part V: Stability Margin Towards Emergency Y. Kolokolov & A. Monovskaya
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 07 May 2026
Short summary
We find early warnings of abrupt changes in complex dynamical systems such as the climate where the usual early warning indicators do not work. In particular, these are systems that are periodically forced, for example by the annual cycle of solar insolation. We show these indicators are good theoretically in a general setting then apply them to a specific system, that of the Arctic sea ice, which has been conjectured to be close to such a tipping point. We do not find evidence of it.
We find early warnings of abrupt changes in complex dynamical systems such as the climate where...
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