Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
Research article
 | Highlight paper
13 Apr 2016
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 13 Apr 2016

Early warning signals of tipping points in periodically forced systems

Mark S. Williamson, Sebastian Bathiany, and Timothy M. Lenton


Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
AR by mark williamson on behalf of the Authors (04 Feb 2016)  Author's response   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (18 Feb 2016) by James Annan
RR by Christian Kuehn (19 Feb 2016)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (14 Mar 2016)
ED: Publish as is (26 Mar 2016) by James Annan
AR by mark williamson on behalf of the Authors (01 Apr 2016)
Short summary
We find early warnings of abrupt changes in complex dynamical systems such as the climate where the usual early warning indicators do not work. In particular, these are systems that are periodically forced, for example by the annual cycle of solar insolation. We show these indicators are good theoretically in a general setting then apply them to a specific system, that of the Arctic sea ice, which has been conjectured to be close to such a tipping point. We do not find evidence of it.
Final-revised paper