Articles | Volume 5, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-103-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-103-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Feb 2014
Research article |
| 20 Feb 2014
The role of the North Atlantic overturning and deep ocean for multi-decadal global-mean-temperature variability
C. F. Schleussner
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Physics Institute, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Department of Physics, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany
J. Lehmann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Physics Institute, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany
A. Levermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Physics Institute, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany
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Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Tabea K. Lissner, Erich M. Fischer, Jan Wohland, Mahé Perrette, Antonius Golly, Joeri Rogelj, Katelin Childers, Jacob Schewe, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel, William Hare, and Michiel Schaeffer
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Anja Katzenberger and Anders Levermann
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There is an ongoing societal discussion about speeding up the transition to net-zero carbon emissions. The faster emissions are reduced, the less carbon dioxide will accumulate in the atmosphere determining the level of global warming. In this study, we run simulations with an atmosphere model with different CO2 forcing rates to investigate whether the pace of the emissions itself (in addition to the resulting concentration) significantly influences climate and weather.
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Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
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A fifth of the world's population lives in eastern China, whose climate is dominated by the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). Therefore, it is important to know how the EASM will change under global warming. Here, we use the data of 34 climate models of the latest generation to understand how the EASM will change throughout the 21st century. The models project that the EASM will intensify and that variability between years will increase associated with an increase in extremely wet seasons.
Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Steven J. De Hertog, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Thomas Raddatz, Hongmei Li, Wim Thiery, Quentin Lejeune, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, David Wårlind, Lars Nieradzik, and Julia Pongratz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2387, 2024
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Land-cover and land management changes (LCLMCs) can alter climate even in intact areas, causing carbon changes in remote areas. This study is the first to assess these effects, finding they substantially alter global carbon dynamics, changing terrestrial stocks by up to dozens of gigatons. These results are vital for scientific and policy assessments, given the expected role of LCLMCs in achieving the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit global warming below 1.5 °C.
Soufiane Karmouche, Evgenia Galytska, Gerald A. Meehl, Jakob Runge, Katja Weigel, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 689–715, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-689-2024, 2024
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This study explores Atlantic–Pacific interactions and their response to external factors. Causal analysis of 1950–2014 data reveals a shift from a Pacific- to an Atlantic-driven regime. Contrasting impacts between El Niño and tropical Atlantic temperatures are highlighted, along with different pathways connecting the two oceans. The findings also suggest increasing remote contributions of forced Atlantic responses in modulating local Pacific responses during the most recent analyzed decades.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
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The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
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This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 265–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-265-2024, 2024
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Changes in land use are crucial to achieve lower global warming. However, despite their importance, the effects of these changes on moisture fluxes are poorly understood. We analyse land cover and management scenarios in three climate models involving cropland expansion, afforestation, and irrigation. Results show largely consistent influences on moisture fluxes, with cropland expansion causing a drying and reduced local moisture recycling, while afforestation and irrigation show the opposite.
Robert E. Kopp, Gregory G. Garner, Tim H. J. Hermans, Shantenu Jha, Praveen Kumar, Alexander Reedy, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Matteo Turilli, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan M. Gregory, George Koubbe, Anders Levermann, Andre Merzky, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. Palmer, and Chris Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7461–7489, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023, 2023
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Future sea-level rise projections exhibit multiple forms of uncertainty, all of which must be considered by scientific assessments intended to inform decision-making. The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) is a new software package intended to support assessments of global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level rise. An early version of FACTS supported the development of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report sea-level projections.
Shruti Nath, Lukas Gudmundsson, Jonas Schwaab, Gregory Duveiller, Steven J. De Hertog, Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Carl F. Schleussner, Wim Thiery, and Quentin Lejeune
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4283–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, 2023
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Tree cover changes play a significant role in climate mitigation and adaptation. Their regional impacts are key in informing national-level decisions and prioritising areas for conservation efforts. We present a first step towards exploring these regional impacts using a simple statistical device, i.e. emulator. The emulator only needs to train on climate model outputs representing the maximal impacts of aff-, re-, and deforestation, from which it explores plausible in-between outcomes itself.
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023
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This is a critical decade for climate action, but there is no annual tracking of the level of human-induced warming. We build on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports that are authoritative but published infrequently to create a set of key global climate indicators that can be tracked through time. Our hope is that this becomes an important annual publication that policymakers, media, scientists and the public can refer to.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 629–667, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, 2023
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Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occur and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Steven J. De Hertog, Carmen E. Lopez-Fabara, Ruud van der Ent, Jessica Keune, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Portmann, Sebastian Schemm, Felix Havermann, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-953, 2023
Preprint archived
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Land cover and management changes can affect the climate and water availability. In this study we use climate model simulations of extreme global land cover changes (afforestation, deforestation) and land management changes (irrigation) to understand the effects on the global water cycle and local to continental water availability. We show that cropland expansion generally leads to higher evaporation and lower amounts of precipitation and afforestation and irrigation expansion to the opposite.
Susanne Baur, Alexander Nauels, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 367–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-367-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-367-2023, 2023
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Solar radiation modification (SRM) artificially cools global temperature without acting on the cause of climate change. This study looks at how long SRM would have to be deployed to limit warming to 1.5 °C and how this timeframe is affected by different levels of mitigation, negative emissions and climate uncertainty. None of the three factors alone can guarantee short SRM deployment. Due to their uncertainty at the time of SRM initialization, any deployment risks may be several centuries long.
Soufiane Karmouche, Evgenia Galytska, Jakob Runge, Gerald A. Meehl, Adam S. Phillips, Katja Weigel, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 309–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-309-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-309-2023, 2023
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This study uses a causal discovery method to evaluate the ability of climate models to represent the interactions between the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and the Pacific decadal variability (PDV). The approach and findings in this study present a powerful methodology that can be applied to a number of environment-related topics, offering tremendous insights to improve the understanding of the complex Earth system and the state of the art of climate modeling.
Johannes Feldmann and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 17, 327–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-327-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-327-2023, 2023
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Here we present a scaling relation that allows the comparison of the timescales of glaciers with geometric similarity. According to the relation, thicker and wider glaciers on a steeper bed slope have a much faster timescale than shallower, narrower glaciers on a flatter bed slope. The relation is supported by observations and simplified numerical simulations. We combine the scaling relation with a statistical analysis of the topography of 13 instability-prone Antarctic outlet glaciers.
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1305–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1305-2022, 2022
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Land cover and land management changes are important strategies for future land-based mitigation. We investigate the climate effects of cropland expansion, afforestation, irrigation, and wood harvesting using three Earth system models. Results show that these have important implications for surface temperature where the land cover and/or management change occurs and in remote areas. Idealized afforestation causes global warming, which might offset the cooling effect from enhanced carbon uptake.
Tanja Schlemm, Johannes Feldmann, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 16, 1979–1996, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1979-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1979-2022, 2022
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Marine cliff instability, if it exists, could dominate Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise. It is likely to speed up with ice thickness and thus would accelerate in most parts of Antarctica. Here, we investigate a possible mechanism that might stop cliff instability through cloaking by ice mélange. It is only a first step, but it shows that embayment geometry is, in principle, able to stop marine cliff instability in most parts of West Antarctica.
Johannes Feldmann, Ronja Reese, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 16, 1927–1940, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1927-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-1927-2022, 2022
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We use a numerical model to simulate the flow of a simplified, buttressed Antarctic-type outlet glacier with an attached ice shelf. We find that after a few years of perturbation such a glacier responds much stronger to melting under the ice-shelf shear margins than to melting in the central fast streaming part of the ice shelf. This study explains the underlying physical mechanism which might gain importance in the future if melt rates under the Antarctic ice shelves continue to increase.
Shruti Nath, Quentin Lejeune, Lea Beusch, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 851–877, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-851-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-851-2022, 2022
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Uncertainty within climate model projections on inter-annual timescales is largely affected by natural climate variability. Emulators are valuable tools for approximating climate model runs, allowing for easy exploration of such uncertainty spaces. This study takes a first step at building a spatially resolved, monthly temperature emulator that takes local yearly temperatures as the sole input, thus providing monthly temperature distributions which are of critical value to impact assessments.
Peter Pfleiderer, Shruti Nath, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 471–482, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-471-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-471-2022, 2022
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Tropical cyclones are amongst the most dangerous weather events. Here we develop an empirical model that allows us to estimate the number and strengths of tropical cyclones for given atmospheric conditions and sea surface temperatures. An application of the model shows that atmospheric circulation is the dominant factor for seasonal tropical cyclone activity. However, warming sea surface temperatures have doubled the likelihood of extremely active hurricane seasons in the past decades.
Christopher Krich, Mirco Migliavacca, Diego G. Miralles, Guido Kraemer, Tarek S. El-Madany, Markus Reichstein, Jakob Runge, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 18, 2379–2404, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2379-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2379-2021, 2021
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Ecosystems and the atmosphere interact with each other. These interactions determine e.g. the water and carbon fluxes and thus are crucial to understand climate change effects. We analysed the interactions for many ecosystems across the globe, showing that very different ecosystems can have similar interactions with the atmosphere. Meteorological conditions seem to be the strongest interaction-shaping factor. This means that common principles can be identified to describe ecosystem behaviour.
Anja Katzenberger, Jacob Schewe, Julia Pongratz, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-367-2021, 2021
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All state-of-the-art global climate models that contributed to the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show a robust increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall that is even stronger than in the previous intercomparison (CMIP5). Furthermore, they show an increase in the year-to-year variability of this seasonal rainfall that crucially influences the livelihood of more than 1 billion people in India.
Tanja Schlemm and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 15, 531–545, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-531-2021, 2021
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Ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica is often cloaked by a mélange of icebergs and sea ice. Here we provide a simple method to parametrize the resulting back stress on the ice flow for large-scale projection models.
Maria Zeitz, Anders Levermann, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 14, 3537–3550, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3537-2020, 2020
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The flow of ice drives mass losses in the large ice sheets. Sea-level rise projections rely on ice-sheet models, solving the physics of ice flow and melt. Unfortunately the parameters in the physics of flow are uncertain. Here we show, in an idealized setup, that these uncertainties can double flow-driven mass losses within the possible range of parameters. It is possible that this uncertainty carries over to realistic sea-level rise projections.
Giorgia Di Capua, Jakob Runge, Reik V. Donner, Bart van den Hurk, Andrew G. Turner, Ramesh Vellore, Raghavan Krishnan, and Dim Coumou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 519–539, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-519-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-519-2020, 2020
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We study the interactions between the tropical convective activity and the mid-latitude circulation in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal summer. We identify two circumglobal wave patterns with phase shifts corresponding to the South Asian and the western North Pacific monsoon systems at an intra-seasonal timescale. These patterns show two-way interactions in a causal framework at a weekly timescale and assess how El Niño affects these interactions.
Ronja Reese, Anders Levermann, Torsten Albrecht, Hélène Seroussi, and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 14, 3097–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3097-2020, 2020
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We compare 21st century projections of Antarctica's future sea-level contribution simulated with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model submitted to ISMIP6 with projections following the LARMIP-2 protocol based on the same model configuration. We find that (1) a preceding historic simulation increases mass loss by 5–50 % and that (2) the order of magnitude difference in the ice loss in our experiments following the two protocols can be explained by the translation of ocean forcing to sub-shelf melting.
Andreas Geiges, Alexander Nauels, Paola Yanguas Parra, Marina Andrijevic, William Hare, Peter Pfleiderer, Michiel Schaeffer, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 697–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020, 2020
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Current global mitigation ambition in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs) up to 2030 is insufficient to achieve the 1.5 °C long-term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, we address the question of what level of collective ambition is pivotal regarding the Paris Agreement goals. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those scenarios.
Peter Pfleiderer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Tobias Geiger, and Marlene Kretschmer
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 313–324, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-313-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-313-2020, 2020
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Seasonal outlooks of Atlantic hurricane activity are required to enable risk reduction measures and disaster preparedness. Many seasonal forecasts are based on a selection of climate signals from which a statistical model is constructed. The crucial step in this approach is to select the most relevant predictors without overfitting. Here we show that causal effect networks can be used to identify the most robust predictors. Based on these predictors we construct a competitive forecast model.
Christopher Krich, Jakob Runge, Diego G. Miralles, Mirco Migliavacca, Oscar Perez-Priego, Tarek El-Madany, Arnaud Carrara, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 17, 1033–1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1033-2020, 2020
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Causal inference promises new insight into biosphere–atmosphere interactions using time series only. To understand the behaviour of a specific method on such data, we used artificial and observation-based data. The observed structures are very interpretable and reveal certain ecosystem-specific behaviour, as only a few relevant links remain, in contrast to pure correlation techniques. Thus, causal inference allows to us gain well-constrained insights into processes and interactions.
Torsten Albrecht, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 633–656, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-633-2020, 2020
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A large ensemble of glacial-cycle simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) was analyzed in which four relevant model parameters were systematically varied. These parameters were selected in a companion study and are associated with uncertainties in ice dynamics, climatic forcing, basal sliding and solid Earth deformation. For each ensemble member a statistical score is computed, which enables calibrating the model against both modern and geologic data.
Torsten Albrecht, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 14, 599–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-599-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-599-2020, 2020
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During the last glacial cycles the Antarctic Ice Sheet experienced alternating climatic conditions and varying sea-level history. In response, changes in ice sheet volume and ice-covered area occurred, implying feedbacks on the global sea level. We ran model simulations of the ice sheet with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) over the last two glacial cycles to evaluate the model's sensitivity to different choices of boundary conditions and parameters to gain confidence for future projections.
Anders Levermann, Ricarda Winkelmann, Torsten Albrecht, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Ralf Greve, Philippe Huybrechts, Jim Jordan, Gunter Leguy, Daniel Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Frank Pattyn, David Pollard, Aurelien Quiquet, Christian Rodehacke, Helene Seroussi, Johannes Sutter, Tong Zhang, Jonas Van Breedam, Reinhard Calov, Robert DeConto, Christophe Dumas, Julius Garbe, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Thomas Kleiner, William H. Lipscomb, Malte Meinshausen, Esmond Ng, Sophie M. J. Nowicki, Mauro Perego, Stephen F. Price, Fuyuki Saito, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Sainan Sun, and Roderik S. W. van de Wal
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 35–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-35-2020, 2020
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We provide an estimate of the future sea level contribution of Antarctica from basal ice shelf melting up to the year 2100. The full uncertainty range in the warming-related forcing of basal melt is estimated and applied to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models using a linear response theory approach. The sea level contribution we obtain is very likely below 61 cm under unmitigated climate change until 2100 (RCP8.5) and very likely below 40 cm if the Paris Climate Agreement is kept.
Falko Ueckerdt, Katja Frieler, Stefan Lange, Leonie Wenz, Gunnar Luderer, and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 741–763, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-741-2019, 2019
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We compute the global mean temperature increase at which the costs from climate-change damages and climate-change mitigation are minimal. This temperature is computed robustly around 2 degrees of global warming across a wide range of normative assumptions on the valuation of future welfare and inequality aversion.
Tanja Schlemm and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 13, 2475–2488, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2475-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2475-2019, 2019
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We provide a simple stress-based parameterization for cliff calving of ice sheets. According to the resulting increasing dependence of the calving rate on ice thickness, the parameterization might lead to a runaway ice loss in large parts of Greenland and Antarctica.
Anders Levermann and Johannes Feldmann
The Cryosphere, 13, 1621–1633, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1621-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1621-2019, 2019
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Using scaling analysis we propose that the currently observed marine ice-sheet instability in the Amundsen Sea sector might be faster than all other potential instabilities in Antarctica.
Sonja Totz, Stefan Petri, Jascha Lehmann, Erik Peukert, and Dim Coumou
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 26, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-1-2019, 2019
Johannes Feldmann, Ronja Reese, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2018-109, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2018-109, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Fahad Saeed, Ingo Bethke, Stefan Lange, Ludwig Lierhammer, Hideo Shiogama, Dáithí A. Stone, Tim Trautmann, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-107, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-107, 2018
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Johannes Feldmann and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 11, 1913–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1913-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1913-2017, 2017
Jacob Schewe and Anders Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 495–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-495-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-495-2017, 2017
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Monsoon systems have undergone abrupt changes in past climates, and theoretical considerations show that threshold behavior can follow from the internal dynamics of monsoons. So far, however, the possibility of abrupt changes has not been explored for modern monsoon systems. We analyze state-of-the-art climate model simulations and show that some models project abrupt changes in Sahel rainfall in response to a dynamic shift in the West African monsoon under 21st century climate change.
Sonja Molnos, Stefan Petri, Jascha Lehmann, Erik Peukert, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-65, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-65, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Daniel Mitchell, Krishna AchutaRao, Myles Allen, Ingo Bethke, Urs Beyerle, Andrew Ciavarella, Piers M. Forster, Jan Fuglestvedt, Nathan Gillett, Karsten Haustein, William Ingram, Trond Iversen, Viatcheslav Kharin, Nicholas Klingaman, Neil Massey, Erich Fischer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, John Scinocca, Øyvind Seland, Hideo Shiogama, Emily Shuckburgh, Sarah Sparrow, Dáithí Stone, Peter Uhe, David Wallom, Michael Wehner, and Rashyd Zaaboul
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 571–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, 2017
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This paper provides an experimental design to assess impacts of a world that is 1.5 °C warmer than at pre-industrial levels. The design is a new way to approach impacts from the climate community, and aims to answer questions related to the recent Paris Agreement. In particular the paper provides a method for studying extreme events under relatively high mitigation scenarios.
Jan Wohland, Torsten Albrecht, and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-191, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-191, 2016
Preprint withdrawn
Anders Levermann and Ricarda Winkelmann
The Cryosphere, 10, 1799–1807, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1799-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1799-2016, 2016
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In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing mass and has thereby contributed to global sea-level rise. Here we derive the basic equations for the melt elevation feedback that can lead to self-amplifying melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet and ice sheets in general. The theory unifies the results of complex models when the feedback dominates the dynamics and it allows us to estimate the melt time of ice sheets from data in cases where ice dynamic loss can be neglected.
Johannes Feldmann and Anders Levermann
The Cryosphere, 10, 1753–1769, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1753-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1753-2016, 2016
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Tabea K. Lissner, Erich M. Fischer, Jan Wohland, Mahé Perrette, Antonius Golly, Joeri Rogelj, Katelin Childers, Jacob Schewe, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel, William Hare, and Michiel Schaeffer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 327–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016, 2016
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We present for the first time a comprehensive assessment of key climate impacts for the policy relevant warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We report substantial impact differences in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, regional water availability and agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. The increase in climate impacts is particularly pronounced in tropical and sub-tropical regions.
K. Frieler, M. Mengel, and A. Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 203–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-203-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-203-2016, 2016
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Sea level will continue to rise for centuries. We investigate the option of delaying sea-level rise by pumping ocean water onto Antarctica. Due to wave propagation ice is discharged much faster back into the ocean than expected from pure advection. A millennium-scale storage of > 80 % of the additional ice requires a distance of > 700 km from the coastline. The pumping energy required to elevate ocean water to mitigate a sea-level rise of 3 mm yr−1 exceeds 7 % of current global primary energy supply.
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, and H. J. Schellnhuber
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
J. Feldmann and A. Levermann
The Cryosphere, 9, 631–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-631-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-631-2015, 2015
M. A. Martin, A. Levermann, and R. Winkelmann
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-1705-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-1705-2015, 2015
Preprint withdrawn
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Numerical ice sheet modelling shows that idealized, step-function type ocean warming in the Weddell Sea, where the ice sheet is close to floatation, leads to more immediate ice discharge with a higher sensitivity to small warming levels than the same warming in the Amundsen Sea. While the cumulative ice loss in the Amundsen Sea Sector is of similar magnitude after five centuries of continued warming, ice loss increases at a slower pace and only for significantly higher warming levels.
D. C. Zemp, C.-F. Schleussner, H. M. J. Barbosa, R. J. van der Ent, J. F. Donges, J. Heinke, G. Sampaio, and A. Rammig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13337–13359, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-13337-2014, 2014
D. Ehlert and A. Levermann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 383–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-383-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-383-2014, 2014
A. Levermann, R. Winkelmann, S. Nowicki, J. L. Fastook, K. Frieler, R. Greve, H. H. Hellmer, M. A. Martin, M. Meinshausen, M. Mengel, A. J. Payne, D. Pollard, T. Sato, R. Timmermann, W. L. Wang, and R. A. Bindschadler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 271–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-271-2014, 2014
T. Albrecht and A. Levermann
The Cryosphere, 8, 587–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-587-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-587-2014, 2014
A. Menon, A. Levermann, J. Schewe, J. Lehmann, and K. Frieler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 287–300, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-287-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-287-2013, 2013
C. F. Schleussner and G. Feulner
Clim. Past, 9, 1321–1330, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1321-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1321-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Dynamics of the Earth system: concepts
Rate-induced tipping in natural and human systems
Tracing the Snowball bifurcation of aquaplanets through time reveals a fundamental shift in critical-state dynamics
Multi-million-year cycles in modelled δ13C as a response to astronomical forcing of organic matter fluxes
Reliability of resilience estimation based on multi-instrument time series
The ExtremeX global climate model experiment: investigating thermodynamic and dynamic processes contributing to weather and climate extremes
ESD Ideas: planetary antifragility: a new dimension in the definition of the safe operating space for humanity
Glacial runoff buffers droughts through the 21st century
Inarticulate past: similarity properties of the ice–climate system and their implications for paleo-record attribution
Extreme weather and societal impacts in the eastern Mediterranean
Sedimentary microplankton distributions are shaped by oceanographically connected areas
Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region
Taxonomies for structuring models for World–Earth systems analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social–ecological feedback loops
ESD Ideas: A weak positive feedback between sea level and the planetary albedo
The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints
Sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea region
Earth system economics: a biophysical approach to the human component of the Earth system
The half-order energy balance equation – Part 1: The homogeneous HEBE and long memories
The half-order energy balance equation – Part 2: The inhomogeneous HEBE and 2D energy balance models
A dynamical systems characterization of atmospheric jet regimes
Synchronized spatial shifts of Hadley and Walker circulations
ESD Ideas: The Peclet number is a cornerstone of the orbital and millennial Pleistocene variability
Temperatures from energy balance models: the effective heat capacity matters
Relating climate sensitivity indices to projection uncertainty
The role of prior assumptions in carbon budget calculations
Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World–Earth modeling framework
π-theorem generalization of the ice-age theory
Earth system data cubes unravel global multivariate dynamics
ESD Ideas: Why are glaciations slower than deglaciations?
Fractional governing equations of transient groundwater flow in unconfined aquifers with multi-fractional dimensions in fractional time
Climate system response to stratospheric sulfate aerosols: sensitivity to altitude of aerosol layer
Minimal dynamical systems model of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream via embedding of climate data
Millennium-length precipitation reconstruction over south-eastern Asia: a pseudo-proxy approach
Including the efficacy of land ice changes in deriving climate sensitivity from paleodata
The role of moisture transport for precipitation in the inter-annual and inter-daily fluctuations of the Arctic sea ice extension
On the assessment of the moisture transport by the Great Plains low-level jet
ESD Ideas: The stochastic climate model shows that underestimated Holocene trends and variability represent two sides of the same coin
Cascading transitions in the climate system
The climate of a retrograde rotating Earth
Diurnal land surface energy balance partitioning estimated from the thermodynamic limit of a cold heat engine
How intermittency affects the rate at which rainfall extremes respond to changes in temperature
Climate sensitivity estimates – sensitivity to radiative forcing time series and observational data
On deeper human dimensions in Earth system analysis and modelling
Bias correction of surface downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation for the EWEMBI dataset
Estimating sowing and harvest dates based on the Asian summer monsoon
Quantifying changes in spatial patterns of surface air temperature dynamics over several decades
Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) – a bottom–up, science-led approach to identifying indicators
Climate indices for the Baltic states from principal component analysis
Fractal scaling analysis of groundwater dynamics in confined aquifers
An explanation for the different climate sensitivities of land and ocean surfaces based on the diurnal cycle
Multivariate anomaly detection for Earth observations: a comparison of algorithms and feature extraction techniques
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Hassan Alkhayuon, Peter M. Cox, and Sebastian Wieczorek
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 669–683, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023, 2023
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Complex systems can undergo abrupt changes or tipping points when external forcing crosses a critical level and are of increasing concern because of their severe impacts. However, tipping points can also occur when the external forcing changes too quickly without crossing any critical levels, which is very relevant for Earth’s systems and contemporary climate. We give an intuitive explanation of such rate-induced tipping and provide illustrative examples from natural and human systems.
Georg Feulner, Mona Bukenberger, and Stefan Petri
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 533–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-533-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-533-2023, 2023
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One limit of planetary habitability is defined by the threshold of global glaciation. If Earth cools, growing ice cover makes it brighter, leading to further cooling, since more sunlight is reflected, eventually leading to global ice cover (Snowball Earth). We study how much carbon dioxide is needed to prevent global glaciation in Earth's history given the slow increase in the Sun's brightness. We find an unexpected change in the characteristics of climate states close to the Snowball limit.
Gaëlle Leloup and Didier Paillard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 291–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-291-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-291-2023, 2023
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Records of past carbon isotopes exhibit oscillations. It is clear over very different time periods that oscillations of 400 kyr take place. Also, strong oscillations of approximately 8–9 Myr are seen over different time periods. While earlier modelling studies have been able to produce 400 kyr oscillations, none of them produced 8–9 Myr cycles. Here, we propose a simple model for the carbon cycle that is able to produce 8–9 Myr oscillations in the modelled carbon isotopes.
Taylor Smith, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Chris A. Boulton, Timothy M. Lenton, Wouter Dorigo, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 173–183, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, 2023
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Multi-instrument records with varying signal-to-noise ratios are becoming increasingly common as legacy sensors are upgraded, and data sets are modernized. Induced changes in higher-order statistics such as the autocorrelation and variance are not always well captured by cross-calibration schemes. Here we investigate using synthetic examples how strong resulting biases can be and how they can be avoided in order to make reliable statements about changes in the resilience of a system.
Kathrin Wehrli, Fei Luo, Mathias Hauser, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, Dim Coumou, Wilhelm May, Philippe Le Sager, Frank Selten, Olivia Martius, Robert Vautard, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1167–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, 2022
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The ExtremeX experiment was designed to unravel the contribution of processes leading to the occurrence of recent weather and climate extremes. Global climate simulations are carried out with three models. The results show that in constrained experiments, temperature anomalies during heatwaves are well represented, although climatological model biases remain. Further, a substantial contribution of both atmospheric circulation and soil moisture to heat extremes is identified.
Oliver López-Corona, Melanie Kolb, Elvia Ramírez-Carrillo, and Jon Lovett
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1145–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1145-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1145-2022, 2022
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Climate change, the loss of biodiversity and land-use change, among others, have been recognized as main human perturbations to Earth system dynamics, the so-called planetary boundaries. Effort has been made to understand how to define a safe operating space for humanity (accepted levels of these perturbations). In this work we address the problem by assessing the Earth's capacity to respond to these perturbations, a capacity that the planet is losing.
Lizz Ultee, Sloan Coats, and Jonathan Mackay
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 935–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-935-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-935-2022, 2022
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Global climate models suggest that droughts could worsen over the coming century. In mountain basins with glaciers, glacial runoff can ease droughts, but glaciers are retreating worldwide. We analyzed how one measure of drought conditions changes when accounting for glacial runoff that changes over time. Surprisingly, we found that glacial runoff can continue to buffer drought throughout the 21st century in most cases, even as the total amount of runoff declines.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 879–884, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-879-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-879-2022, 2022
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Reconstruction and explanation of past climate evolution using proxy records is the essence of paleoclimatology. In this study, we use dimensional analysis of a dynamical model on orbital timescales to recognize theoretical limits of such forensic inquiries. Specifically, we demonstrate that major past events could have been produced by physically dissimilar processes making the task of paleo-record attribution to a particular phenomenon fundamentally difficult if not impossible.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
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Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Peter D. Nooteboom, Peter K. Bijl, Christian Kehl, Erik van Sebille, Martin Ziegler, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 357–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-357-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-357-2022, 2022
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Having descended through the water column, microplankton in ocean sediments represents the ocean surface environment and is used as an archive of past and present surface oceanographic conditions. However, this microplankton is advected by turbulent ocean currents during its sinking journey. We use simulations of sinking particles to define ocean bottom provinces and detect these provinces in datasets of sedimentary microplankton, which has implications for palaeoclimate reconstructions.
Anna Rutgersson, Erik Kjellström, Jari Haapala, Martin Stendel, Irina Danilovich, Martin Drews, Kirsti Jylhä, Pentti Kujala, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Kirsten Halsnæs, Ilari Lehtonen, Anna Luomaranta, Erik Nilsson, Taru Olsson, Jani Särkkä, Laura Tuomi, and Norbert Wasmund
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 251–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, 2022
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A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event with a negative effect on people, society, or the environment; major events in the study area include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea level, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. In the future, an increase in sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves, and phytoplankton blooms is expected, and a decrease in cold spells and severe ice winters is anticipated.
Jonathan F. Donges, Wolfgang Lucht, Sarah E. Cornell, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Steven J. Lade, and Maja Schlüter
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1115–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021, 2021
Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1057–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1057-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1057-2021, 2021
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The oceans are typically darker than land surfaces. Expanding oceans through sea-level rise may thus lead to a darker planet Earth, reflecting less sunlight. The additionally absorbed sunlight may heat planet Earth, leading to further sea-level rise. Here, we provide a rough estimate of the strength of this feedback: it turns out to be very weak, but clearly positive, thereby destabilizing the Earth system.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Charles D. Koven, Florent Brient, Ben B. B. Booth, Rosie A. Fisher, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 899–918, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021, 2021
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Emergent constraints promise a pathway to the reduction in climate projection uncertainties by exploiting ensemble relationships between observable quantities and unknown climate response parameters. This study considers the robustness of these relationships in light of biases and common simplifications that may be present in the original ensemble of climate simulations. We propose a classification scheme for constraints and a number of practical case studies.
Ralf Weisse, Inga Dailidienė, Birgit Hünicke, Kimmo Kahma, Kristine Madsen, Anders Omstedt, Kevin Parnell, Tilo Schöne, Tarmo Soomere, Wenyan Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 871–898, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021, 2021
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The study is part of the thematic Baltic Earth Assessment Reports – a series of review papers summarizing the knowledge around major Baltic Earth science topics. It concentrates on sea level dynamics and coastal erosion (its variability and change). Many of the driving processes are relevant in the Baltic Sea. Contributions vary over short distances and across timescales. Progress and research gaps are described in both understanding details in the region and in extending general concepts.
Eric D. Galbraith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 671–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-671-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-671-2021, 2021
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Scientific tradition has left a gap between the study of humans and the rest of the Earth system. Here, a holistic approach to the global human system is proposed, intended to provide seamless integration with natural sciences. At the core, this focuses on what humans are doing with their time, what the bio-physical outcomes of those activities are, and what the lived experience is. The quantitative approach can facilitate data analysis across scales and integrated human–Earth system modeling.
Shaun Lovejoy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 469–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-469-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-469-2021, 2021
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Monthly scale, seasonal-scale, and decadal-scale modeling of the atmosphere is possible using the principle of energy balance. Yet the scope of classical approaches is limited because they do not adequately deal with energy storage in the Earth system. We show that the introduction of a vertical coordinate implies that the storage has a huge memory. This memory can be used for macroweather (long-range) forecasts and climate projections.
Shaun Lovejoy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 489–511, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-489-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-489-2021, 2021
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Radiant energy is exchanged between the Earth's surface and outer space. Some of the local imbalances are stored in the subsurface, and some are transported horizontally. In Part 1 I showed how – in a horizontally homogeneous Earth – these classical approaches imply long-memory storage useful for seasonal forecasting and multidecadal projections. In this Part 2, I show how to apply these results to the heterogeneous real Earth.
Gabriele Messori, Nili Harnik, Erica Madonna, Orli Lachmy, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 233–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, 2021
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Atmospheric jets are a key component of the climate system and of our everyday lives. Indeed, they affect human activities by influencing the weather in many mid-latitude regions. However, we still lack a complete understanding of their dynamical properties. In this study, we try to relate the understanding gained in idealized computer simulations of the jets to our knowledge from observations of the real atmosphere.
Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, and Malte F. Stuecker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 121–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-121-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-121-2021, 2021
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Changes in the Hadley and Walker cells cause major climate disruptions across our planet. What has been overlooked so far is the question of whether these two circulations can shift their positions in a synchronized manner. We here show the synchronized spatial shifts between Walker and Hadley cells and further highlight a novel aspect of how tropical sea surface temperature anomalies can couple these two circulations. The re-positioning has important implications for extratropical rainfall.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 63–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021, 2021
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We demonstrate here that a single physical phenomenon, specifically, a naturally changing balance between intensities of temperature advection and diffusion in the viscous ice media, may influence the entire spectrum of the Pleistocene variability from orbital to millennial timescales.
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1195–1208, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, 2020
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With the development of computer capacities, simpler models like energy balance models have not disappeared, and a stronger emphasis has been given to the concept of a hierarchy of models. The global temperature is calculated by the radiation budget through the incoming energy from the Sun and the outgoing energy from the Earth. The argument that the temperature can be calculated by a simple radiation budget is revisited, and it is found that the effective heat capacity matters.
Benjamin Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 721–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-721-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-721-2020, 2020
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Here, we assess the degree to which the idealized responses to transient forcing increase and step change forcing increase relate to warming under future scenarios. We find a possible explanation for the poor performance of transient metrics (relative to equilibrium response) as a metric of high-emission future warming in terms of their sensitivity to non-equilibrated initial conditions, and propose alternative metrics which better describe warming under high mitigation scenarios.
Benjamin Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 563–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-563-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-563-2020, 2020
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Levels of future temperature change are often used interchangeably with carbon budget allowances in climate policy, a relatively robust relationship on the timescale of this century. However, recent advances in understanding underline that continued warming after net-zero emissions have been achieved cannot be ruled out by observations of warming to date. We consider here how such behavior could be constrained and how policy can be framed in the context of these uncertainties.
Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Marc Wiedermann, Johannes A. Kassel, Tim Kittel, Jakob J. Kolb, Till Kolster, Finn Müller-Hansen, Ilona M. Otto, Kilian B. Zimmerer, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 395–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020, 2020
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We present an open-source software framework for developing so-called
world–Earth modelsthat link physical, chemical and biological processes with social, economic and cultural processes to study the Earth system's future trajectories in the Anthropocene. Due to its modular structure, the software allows interdisciplinary studies of global change and sustainable development that combine stylized model components from Earth system science, climatology, economics, ecology and sociology.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 281–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-281-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-281-2020, 2020
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Using the central theorem of dimensional analysis, the π theorem, we show that the relationship between the amplitude and duration of glacial cycles is governed by a property of scale invariance that does not depend on the physical nature of the underlying positive and negative feedbacks incorporated by the system. It thus turns out to be one of the most fundamental properties of the Pleistocene climate.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Gunnar Brandt, Rune Christiansen, Sarah E. Cornell, Normann Fomferra, Guido Kraemer, Jonas Peters, Paul Bodesheim, Gustau Camps-Valls, Jonathan F. Donges, Wouter Dorigo, Lina M. Estupinan-Suarez, Victor H. Gutierrez-Velez, Martin Gutwin, Martin Jung, Maria C. Londoño, Diego G. Miralles, Phillip Papastefanou, and Markus Reichstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 201–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, 2020
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The ever-growing availability of data streams on different subsystems of the Earth brings unprecedented scientific opportunities. However, researching a data-rich world brings novel challenges. We present the concept of
Earth system data cubesto study the complex dynamics of multiple climate and ecosystem variables across space and time. Using a series of example studies, we highlight the potential of effectively considering the full multivariate nature of processes in the Earth system.
Christine Ramadhin and Chuixiang Yi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 13–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-13-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-13-2020, 2020
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Here we explore ancient climate transitions from warm periods to ice ages and from ice ages to warm periods of the last 400 000 years. The changeovers from warm to ice age conditions are slower than those from ice age to warm conditions. We propose the presence of strong negative sea–ice feedbacks may be responsible for slowing the transition from warm to full ice age conditions. By improving understanding of past abrupt changes, we may have improved knowledge of future system behavior.
M. Levent Kavvas, Tongbi Tu, Ali Ercan, and James Polsinelli
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1-2020, 2020
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After deriving a fractional continuity equation, a previously-developed equation for water flux in porous media was combined with the Dupuit approximation to obtain an equation for groundwater motion in multi-fractional space in unconfined aquifers. As demonstrated in the numerical application, the orders of the fractional space and time derivatives modulate the speed of groundwater table evolution, slowing the process with the decrease in the powers of the fractional derivatives from 1.
Krishna-Pillai Sukumara-Pillai Krishnamohan, Govindasamy Bala, Long Cao, Lei Duan, and Ken Caldeira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 885–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-885-2019, 2019
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We find that sulfate aerosols are more effective in cooling the climate system when they reside higher in the stratosphere. We explain this sensitivity in terms of radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere. Sulfate aerosols heat the stratospheric layers, causing an increase in stratospheric water vapor content and a reduction in high clouds. These changes are larger when aerosols are prescribed near the tropopause, offsetting part of the aerosol-induced negative radiative forcing/cooling.
Davide Faranda, Yuzuru Sato, Gabriele Messori, Nicholas R. Moloney, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 555–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, 2019
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We show how the complex dynamics of the jet stream at midlatitude can be described by a simple mathematical model. We match the properties of the model to those obtained by the jet data derived from observations.
Stefanie Talento, Lea Schneider, Johannes Werner, and Jürg Luterbacher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 347–364, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-347-2019, 2019
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Quantifying hydroclimate variability beyond the instrumental period is essential for putting fluctuations into long-term perspective and providing a validation for climate models. We evaluate, in a virtual setup, the potential for generating millennium-long summer precipitation reconstructions over south-eastern Asia.
We find that performing a real-world reconstruction with the current available proxy network is indeed feasible, as virtual-world reconstructions are skilful in most areas.
Lennert B. Stap, Peter Köhler, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 333–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, 2019
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Processes causing the same global-average radiative forcing might lead to different global temperature changes. We expand the theoretical framework by which we calculate paleoclimate sensitivity with an efficacy factor. Applying the revised approach to radiative forcing caused by CO2 and land ice albedo perturbations, inferred from data of the past 800 000 years, gives a new paleo-based estimate of climate sensitivity.
Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Raquel Nieto, Marta Vázquez, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 121–133, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-121-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-121-2019, 2019
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Ice melting at the scale of inter-annual fluctuations against the trend is favoured by an increase in moisture transport in summer, autumn, and winter and a decrease in spring. On a daily basis extreme humidity transport increases the formation of ice in winter and decreases it in spring, summer, and autumn; in these three seasons it thus contributes to Arctic sea ice melting. These patterns differ sharply from that linked to decline, especially in summer when the opposite trend applies.
Iago Algarra, Jorge Eiras-Barca, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, Raquel Nieto, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 107–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-107-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-107-2019, 2019
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We analyse moisture transport triggered by the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ), a maximum in wind speed fields located within the first kilometre of the US Great Plain's troposphere, through the innovative Eulerian Weather Research and Forecasting Model tracer tool. Much moisture associated with this low-level jet has been found in northern regions located in a vast extension of the continent, highlighting the key role played by the GPLLJ in North America's advective transport of moisture.
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1279–1281, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018, 2018
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Long-term sea surface temperature trends and variability are underestimated in models compared to paleoclimate data. The idea is presented that the trends and variability are related, which is elaborated in a conceptual model framework. The temperature spectrum can be used to estimate the timescale-dependent climate sensitivity.
Mark M. Dekker, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1243–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018, 2018
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We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one system affects the background conditions of another system. Using bifurcation theory, various types of these events are considered and early warning indicators are suggested. An illustration of such an event is found in a conceptual model, coupling the North Atlantic Ocean with the equatorial Pacific. This demonstrates the possibility of events such as this in nature.
Uwe Mikolajewicz, Florian Ziemen, Guido Cioni, Martin Claussen, Klaus Fraedrich, Marvin Heidkamp, Cathy Hohenegger, Diego Jimenez de la Cuesta, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Alexander Lemburg, Thorsten Mauritsen, Katharina Meraner, Niklas Röber, Hauke Schmidt, Katharina D. Six, Irene Stemmler, Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, Alexander Winkler, Xiuhua Zhu, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1191–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018, 2018
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Model experiments show that changing the sense of Earth's rotation has relatively little impact on the globally and zonally averaged energy budgets but leads to large shifts in continental climates and patterns of precipitation. The retrograde world is greener as the desert area shrinks. Deep water formation shifts from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific with subsequent changes in ocean overturning. Over large areas of the Indian Ocean, cyanobacteria dominate over bulk phytoplankton.
Axel Kleidon and Maik Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1127–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1127-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1127-2018, 2018
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Turbulent fluxes represent an efficient way to transport heat and moisture from the surface into the atmosphere. Due to their inherently highly complex nature, they are commonly described by semiempirical relationships. What we show here is that these fluxes can also be predicted by viewing them as the outcome of a heat engine that operates between the warm surface and the cooler atmosphere and that works at its limit.
Marc Schleiss
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 955–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-955-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-955-2018, 2018
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The present study aims at explaining how intermittency (i.e., the alternation of dry and rainy periods) affects the rate at which precipitation extremes increase with temperature. Using high-resolution rainfall data from 99 stations in the United States, we show that at scales beyond a few hours, intermittency causes rainfall extremes to deviate substantially from Clausius–Clapeyron. A new model is proposed to better represent and predict these changes across scales.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Terje Berntsen, Magne Aldrin, Marit Holden, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 879–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-879-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-879-2018, 2018
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A key question in climate science is how the global mean surface temperature responds to changes in greenhouse gases. This dependency is quantified by the climate sensitivity, which is determined by the complex feedbacks in the climate system. In this study observations of past climate change are used to estimate this sensitivity. Our estimate is consistent with values for the equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by complex climate models but sensitive to the use of uncertain input data.
Dieter Gerten, Martin Schönfeld, and Bernhard Schauberger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 849–863, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-849-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-849-2018, 2018
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Cultural processes are underrepresented in Earth system models, although they decisively shape humanity’s planetary imprint. We set forth ideas on how Earth system analysis can be enriched by formalising aspects of religion (understood broadly as a collective belief in things held sacred). We sketch possible modelling avenues (extensions of existing Earth system models and new co-evolutionary models) and suggest research primers to explicate and quantify mental aspects of the Anthropocene.
Stefan Lange
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 627–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-627-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-627-2018, 2018
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The bias correction of surface downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation using parametric quantile mapping methods is shown to be more effective (i) at the daily than at the monthly timescale, (ii) if the spatial resolution gap between the reference data and the data to be corrected is bridged in a more suitable manner than by bilinear interpolation, and (iii) if physical upper limits are taken into account during the adjustment of either radiation component.
Camilla Mathison, Chetan Deva, Pete Falloon, and Andrew J. Challinor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 563–592, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-563-2018, 2018
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Sowing and harvest dates are a significant source of uncertainty within crop models. South Asia is one region with a large uncertainty. We aim to provide more accurate sowing and harvest dates than currently available and that are relevant for climate impact assessments. This method reproduces the present day sowing and harvest dates for most parts of India and when applied to two future periods provides a useful way of modelling potential growing season adaptations to changes in future climate.
Dario A. Zappalà, Marcelo Barreiro, and Cristina Masoller
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 383–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-383-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-383-2018, 2018
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The dynamics of our climate involves multiple timescales, and while a lot of work has been devoted to quantifying variations in time-averaged variables or variations in their seasonal cycles, variations in daily variability that occur over several decades still remain poorly understood. Here we analyse daily surface air temperature and demonstrate that inter-decadal changes can be precisely identified and quantified with the Hilbert analysis tool.
Nadine Mengis, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 15–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-15-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-15-2018, 2018
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The Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) method applies statistical information to systematically select, transparent, nonredundant indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the Earth system state. We show that due to changing climate forcing, such as anthropogenic climate change, the ad hoc assessment indicators might need to be reevaluated. Within an iterative process, this method would allow us to select scientifically consistent and societally relevant assessment indicators.
Liga Bethere, Juris Sennikovs, and Uldis Bethers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 951–962, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-951-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-951-2017, 2017
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We define three new climate indices based on monthly mean temperature and total precipitation values that describe the main features of the climate in the Baltic states. Higher values in each index correspond to (1) less distinct seasonality and (2) warmer and (3) wetter climate. It was calculated that in the future all three indices will increase. Such indices summarize and illustrate the spatial features of the Baltic climate, and they can be used in further analysis of climate change impact.
Tongbi Tu, Ali Ercan, and M. Levent Kavvas
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 931–949, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-931-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-931-2017, 2017
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Groundwater level fluctuations in confined aquifer wells with long observations exhibit site-specific fractal scaling behavior, and the underlying distribution exhibits either non-Gaussian characteristics, which may be fitted by the Lévy stable distribution, or Gaussian characteristics. The estimated Hurst exponent is highly dependent on the length and the specific time interval of the time series. The MF-DFA and MMA analyses showed that different levels of multifractality exist.
Axel Kleidon and Maik Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 849–864, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-849-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-849-2017, 2017
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We provide an explanation why land temperatures respond more strongly to global warming than ocean temperatures, a robust finding in observations and models that has so far not been understood well. We explain it by the different ways by which ocean and land surfaces buffer the strong variation in solar radiation and demonstrate this with a simple, physically based model. Our explanation also illustrates why nighttime temperatures warm more strongly, another robust finding of global warming.
Milan Flach, Fabian Gans, Alexander Brenning, Joachim Denzler, Markus Reichstein, Erik Rodner, Sebastian Bathiany, Paul Bodesheim, Yanira Guanche, Sebastian Sippel, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 677–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-677-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-677-2017, 2017
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Anomalies and extremes are often detected using univariate peak-over-threshold approaches in the geoscience community. The Earth system is highly multivariate. We compare eight multivariate anomaly detection algorithms and combinations of data preprocessing. We identify three anomaly detection algorithms that outperform univariate extreme event detection approaches. The workflows have the potential to reveal novelties in data. Remarks on their application to real Earth observations are provided.
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