Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1505-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1505-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Nov 2022
Research article |
| 07 Nov 2022
| 07 Nov 2022
Interannual global carbon cycle variations linked to atmospheric circulation variability
Na Li
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Sebastian Sippel
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Alexander J. Winkler
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Miguel D. Mahecha
Remote Sensing Center for Earth System Research, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
Markus Reichstein
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Ana Bastos
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
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Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 1121–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1121-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-1121-2025, 2025
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This study reconciles national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories with updated atmospheric inversion results to evaluate discrepancies for three principal GHG fluxes at the national level. Compared to our previous study, new satellite-based CO2 inversions were included and an updated mask of managed lands was used, improving agreement for Brazil and Canada. The proposed methodology can be regularly applied as a check to assess the gap between top-down inversions and bottom-up inventories.
Wenli Zhao, Alexander J. Winkler, Markus Reichstein, Rene Orth, and Pierre Gentine
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-365, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-365, 2025
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We developed a machine learning model that accounts for the memory effects of soil moisture and vegetation to predict Evaporative Fraction (EF) without relying on soil moisture as a direct input. The model accurately predicts EF during dry periods for the unseen sites, highlighting the key of meteorological memory effects. The learned memory effect related to rooting depth and soil water holding capacity could potentially serve as proxies for assessing the plant water stress.
Zhixuan Guo, Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Stephen Sitch, Guido R. van der Werf, Simon P. K. Bowring, Ana Bastos, Florent Mouillot, Jiaying He, Minxuan Sun, Lei Zhu, Xiaomeng Du, Nan Wang, and Xiaomeng Huang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-556, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-556, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
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To address the limitations of short time spans in satellite data and spatiotemporal discontinuity in site records, we reconstructed global monthly burned area maps at a half-degree resolution for 1901–2020 using machine learning models. The global burned area is predicted at 3.46–4.58 million km² per year, showing a decline from 1901 to 1978, an increase from 1978 to 2008, and a sharper decrease from 2008 to 2020. This dataset provides a benchmark for studies on fire ecology and carbon cycle.
István Dunkl, Ana Bastos, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 151–167, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-151-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-151-2025, 2025
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While the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a climate mode, has a similar impact on CO2 growth rates across Earth system models, there is significant uncertainty in the processes behind this relationship. We found a compensatory effect that masks differences in the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climate anomalies and observed that the carbon fluxes contributing to global CO2 anomalies originate from different regions and are caused by different drivers.
Laura Eifler, Franziska Müller, and Ana Bastos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3534, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3534, 2024
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Forests provide ecosystem services and biodiversity, but they are increasingly affected by disturbances. Consistent global data on forest disturbances are lacking, impeding effective assessment. We compare four forest disturbance datasets for the continental USA, finding moderate agreement overall, with ground-based inventories more consistent than satellite data. This emphasizes the need for enhanced data quality assessment, integration, and accuracy to better understand forest disturbances.
Jacob A. Nelson, Sophia Walther, Fabian Gans, Basil Kraft, Ulrich Weber, Kimberly Novick, Nina Buchmann, Mirco Migliavacca, Georg Wohlfahrt, Ladislav Šigut, Andreas Ibrom, Dario Papale, Mathias Göckede, Gregory Duveiller, Alexander Knohl, Lukas Hörtnagl, Russell L. Scott, Jiří Dušek, Weijie Zhang, Zayd Mahmoud Hamdi, Markus Reichstein, Sergio Aranda-Barranco, Jonas Ardö, Maarten Op de Beeck, Dave Billesbach, David Bowling, Rosvel Bracho, Christian Brümmer, Gustau Camps-Valls, Shiping Chen, Jamie Rose Cleverly, Ankur Desai, Gang Dong, Tarek S. El-Madany, Eugenie Susanne Euskirchen, Iris Feigenwinter, Marta Galvagno, Giacomo A. Gerosa, Bert Gielen, Ignacio Goded, Sarah Goslee, Christopher Michael Gough, Bernard Heinesch, Kazuhito Ichii, Marcin Antoni Jackowicz-Korczynski, Anne Klosterhalfen, Sara Knox, Hideki Kobayashi, Kukka-Maaria Kohonen, Mika Korkiakoski, Ivan Mammarella, Mana Gharun, Riccardo Marzuoli, Roser Matamala, Stefan Metzger, Leonardo Montagnani, Giacomo Nicolini, Thomas O'Halloran, Jean-Marc Ourcival, Matthias Peichl, Elise Pendall, Borja Ruiz Reverter, Marilyn Roland, Simone Sabbatini, Torsten Sachs, Marius Schmidt, Christopher R. Schwalm, Ankit Shekhar, Richard Silberstein, Maria Lucia Silveira, Donatella Spano, Torbern Tagesson, Gianluca Tramontana, Carlo Trotta, Fabio Turco, Timo Vesala, Caroline Vincke, Domenico Vitale, Enrique R. Vivoni, Yi Wang, William Woodgate, Enrico A. Yepez, Junhui Zhang, Donatella Zona, and Martin Jung
Biogeosciences, 21, 5079–5115, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5079-2024, 2024
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The movement of water, carbon, and energy from the Earth's surface to the atmosphere, or flux, is an important process to understand because it impacts our lives. Here, we outline a method called FLUXCOM-X to estimate global water and CO2 fluxes based on direct measurements from sites around the world. We go on to demonstrate how these new estimates of net CO2 uptake/loss, gross CO2 uptake, total water evaporation, and transpiration from plants compare to previous and independent estimates.
Francesco Martinuzzi, Miguel D. Mahecha, Gustau Camps-Valls, David Montero, Tristan Williams, and Karin Mora
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 535–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-535-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-535-2024, 2024
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We investigated how machine learning can forecast extreme vegetation responses to weather. Examining four models, no single one stood out as the best, though "echo state networks" showed minor advantages. Our results indicate that while these tools are able to generally model vegetation states, they face challenges under extreme conditions. This underlines the potential of artificial intelligence in ecosystem modeling, also pinpointing areas that need further research.
Anca Anghelea, Ewelina Dobrowolska, Gunnar Brandt, Martin Reinhardt, Miguel Mahecha, Tejas Morbagal Harish, and Stephan Meissl
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-4-2024, 13–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-2024-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-2024-13-2024, 2024
Mélanie Weynants, Chaonan Ji, Nora Linscheid, Ulrich Weber, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Fabian Gans
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-396, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for ESSD
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Climate extremes are intensifying. The impacts of heatwaves and droughts can be made worse when they happen at the same time. Dheed is a global database of dry and hot compound extreme events from 1950 to 2022. It can be combined with other data to study the impacts of those events on terrestrial ecosystems, specific species or human societies. Dheed's analysis confirms that extremely dry and hot days have become more common on all continents in recent decades, especially in Europe and Africa.
Laura Dénise Nadolski, Tarek Sebastian El Madany, Jacob Allen Nelson, Arnaud Carrara, Gerardo Moreno, Richard K. F. Nair, Yunpeng Luo, Anke Hildebrandt, Victor Rolo, Markus Reichstein, and Sung-Ching Lee
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3190, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3190, 2024
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Semi-arid ecosystems are crucial for Earth's carbon balance and are sensitive to changes in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) levels. Their carbon dynamics are complex and not fully understood. We studied how long-term nutrient changes affect carbon exchange. In summer, N+P changed plant composition and productivity. In transitional seasons, carbon exchange was less weather-dependent with N. Adding N and N+P are increasing carbon exchange variability, driven by grass greenness.
Basil Kraft, Jacob A. Nelson, Sophia Walther, Fabian Gans, Ulrich Weber, Gregory Duveiller, Markus Reichstein, Weijie Zhang, Marc Rußwurm, Devis Tuia, Marco Körner, Zayd Mahmoud Hamdi, and Martin Jung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2896, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2896, 2024
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Global evapotranspiration (ET) can be estimated using machine learning (ML) models optimized on local data and applied to global data. This study explores whether sequential neural networks, which consider past data, perform better than models that do not. The findings show that sequential models struggle with global upscaling, likely due to their sensitivity to data shifts from local to global scales. To improve ML-based upscaling, additional data or integration of physical knowledge is needed.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
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Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Zavud Baghirov, Martin Jung, Markus Reichstein, Marco Körner, and Basil Kraft
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2044, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2044, 2024
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We use an innovative approach to study the Earth's water cycle by blending advanced computer learning techniques with a traditional water cycle model. We developed a model that learns from meteorological data, with a special focus on understanding how vegetation influences water movement. Our model closely aligns with real-world observations, yet there are areas that need improvement. This study opens up new possibilities to better understand the water cycle and its interactions with vegetation.
Guohua Liu, Mirco Migliavacca, Christian Reimers, Basil Kraft, Markus Reichstein, Andrew D. Richardson, Lisa Wingate, Nicolas Delpierre, Hui Yang, and Alexander J. Winkler
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 6683–6701, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6683-2024, 2024
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Our study employs long short-term memory (LSTM) networks to model canopy greenness and phenology, integrating meteorological memory effects. The LSTM model outperforms traditional methods, enhancing accuracy in predicting greenness dynamics and phenological transitions across plant functional types. Highlighting the importance of multi-variate meteorological memory effects, our research pioneers unlock the secrets of vegetation phenology responses to climate change with deep learning techniques.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Guido Kraemer, and Fabio Crameri
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1153–1159, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1153-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1153-2024, 2024
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Our paper examines the visual representation of the planetary boundary concept, which helps convey Earth's capacity to sustain human life. We identify three issues: exaggerated impact sizes, confusing color patterns, and inaccessibility for colour-vision deficiency. These flaws can lead to overstating risks. We suggest improving these visual elements for more accurate and accessible information for decision-makers.
Friedrich J. Bohn, Ana Bastos, Romina Martin, Anja Rammig, Niak Sian Koh, Giles B. Sioen, Bram Buscher, Louise Carver, Fabrice DeClerck, Moritz Drupp, Robert Fletcher, Matthew Forrest, Alexandros Gasparatos, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Gregor Hagedorn, Martin Hänsel, Jessica Hetzer, Thomas Hickler, Cornelia B. Krug, Stasja Koot, Xiuzhen Li, Amy Luers, Shelby Matevich, H. Damon Matthews, Ina C. Meier, Awaz Mohamed, Sungmin O, David Obura, Ben Orlove, Rene Orth, Laura Pereira, Markus Reichstein, Lerato Thakholi, Peter Verburg, and Yuki Yoshida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551, 2024
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An interdisciplinary collaboration of 35 international researchers from 34 institutions highlighting nine recent findings in biosphere research. Within these themes, they discuss issues arising from climate change and other anthropogenic stressors, and highlight the co-benefits of nature-based solutions and ecosystem services. They discuss recent findings in the context of global trade and international policy frameworks, and highlight lessons for local implementation of nature-based solutions.
Sebastian Sippel, Clair Barnes, Camille Cadiou, Erich Fischer, Sarah Kew, Marlene Kretschmer, Sjoukje Philip, Theodore G. Shepherd, Jitendra Singh, Robert Vautard, and Pascal Yiou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, 2024
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Winter temperatures in central Europe have increased. But cold winters can still cause problems for energy systems, infrastructure, or human health. Here we tested whether a record-cold winter, such as the one observed in 1963 over central Europe, could still occur despite climate change. The answer is yes: it is possible, but it is very unlikely. Our results rely on climate model simulations and statistical rare event analysis. In conclusion, society must be prepared for such cold winters.
Theertha Kariyathan, Ana Bastos, Markus Reichstein, Wouter Peters, and Julia Marshall
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1382, 2024
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The carbon uptake period (CUP) refers to the time of the year when there is net absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere to the land. Several studies have assessed changes in CUP based on seasonal metrics from CO2 mole fraction measurements to understand the response of terrestrial biosphere to climate variations. However, we find that the CUP derived from CO2 mole fraction measurements are not likely to provide an accurate magnitude of the actual changes occurring over the surface.
Francesco Martinuzzi, Miguel D. Mahecha, David Montero, Lazaro Alonso, and Karin Mora
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-4-W12-2024, 89–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W12-2024-89-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W12-2024-89-2024, 2024
David Montero, Miguel D. Mahecha, César Aybar, Clemens Mosig, and Sebastian Wieneke
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-4-W12-2024, 105–112, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W12-2024-105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W12-2024-105-2024, 2024
Jasper M. C. Denissen, Adriaan J. Teuling, Sujan Koirala, Markus Reichstein, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Martha M. Vogel, Xin Yu, and René Orth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 717–734, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-717-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-717-2024, 2024
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Heat extremes have severe implications for human health and ecosystems. Heat extremes are mostly introduced by large-scale atmospheric circulation but can be modulated by vegetation. Vegetation with access to water uses solar energy to evaporate water into the atmosphere. Under dry conditions, water may not be available, suppressing evaporation and heating the atmosphere. Using climate projections, we show that regionally less water is available for vegetation, intensifying future heat extremes.
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1757–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, 2024
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We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects. We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it is crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
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To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Sinikka J. Paulus, Rene Orth, Sung-Ching Lee, Anke Hildebrandt, Martin Jung, Jacob A. Nelson, Tarek Sebastian El-Madany, Arnaud Carrara, Gerardo Moreno, Matthias Mauder, Jannis Groh, Alexander Graf, Markus Reichstein, and Mirco Migliavacca
Biogeosciences, 21, 2051–2085, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2051-2024, 2024
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Porous materials are known to reversibly trap water from the air, even at low humidity. However, this behavior is poorly understood for soils. In this analysis, we test whether eddy covariance is able to measure the so-called adsorption of atmospheric water vapor by soils. We find that this flux occurs frequently during dry nights in a Mediterranean ecosystem, while EC detects downwardly directed vapor fluxes. These results can help to map moisture uptake globally.
Martin Jung, Jacob Nelson, Mirco Migliavacca, Tarek El-Madany, Dario Papale, Markus Reichstein, Sophia Walther, and Thomas Wutzler
Biogeosciences, 21, 1827–1846, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1827-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1827-2024, 2024
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We present a methodology to detect inconsistencies in perhaps the most important data source for measurements of ecosystem–atmosphere carbon, water, and energy fluxes. We expect that the derived consistency flags will be relevant for data users and will help in improving our understanding of and our ability to model ecosystem–climate interactions.
Samuel Upton, Markus Reichstein, Fabian Gans, Wouter Peters, Basil Kraft, and Ana Bastos
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 2555–2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-2555-2024, 2024
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Data-driven eddy-covariance upscaled estimates of the global land–atmosphere net CO2 exchange (NEE) show important mismatches with regional and global estimates based on atmospheric information. To address this, we create a model with a dual constraint based on bottom-up eddy-covariance data and top-down atmospheric inversion data. Our model overcomes shortcomings of each approach, producing improved NEE estimates from local to global scale, helping to reduce uncertainty in the carbon budget.
Marleen Pallandt, Marion Schrumpf, Holger Lange, Markus Reichstein, Lin Yu, and Bernhard Ahrens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-186, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-186, 2024
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As soils get warmer due to climate change, SOC decomposes faster because of higher microbial activity, but only with sufficient soil moisture. We modelled how microbes decompose plant litter and microbial residues at different soil depths. We found that deep soil layers are more sensitive than topsoils. SOC is lost from the soil with warming, but this can be mitigated or worsened depending on the type of litter and its sensitivity to temperature. Droughts can reduce warming-induced SOC losses.
Wolfgang Alexander Obermeier, Clemens Schwingshackl, Ana Bastos, Giulia Conchedda, Thomas Gasser, Giacomo Grassi, Richard A. Houghton, Francesco Nicola Tubiello, Stephen Sitch, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 605–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-605-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-605-2024, 2024
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We provide and compare country-level estimates of land-use CO2 fluxes from a variety and large number of models, bottom-up estimates, and country reports for the period 1950–2021. Although net fluxes are small in many countries, they are often composed of large compensating emissions and removals. In many countries, the estimates agree well once their individual characteristics are accounted for, but in other countries, including some of the largest emitters, substantial uncertainties exist.
Jan De Pue, Sebastian Wieneke, Ana Bastos, José Miguel Barrios, Liyang Liu, Philippe Ciais, Alirio Arboleda, Rafiq Hamdi, Maral Maleki, Fabienne Maignan, Françoise Gellens-Meulenberghs, Ivan Janssens, and Manuela Balzarolo
Biogeosciences, 20, 4795–4818, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4795-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4795-2023, 2023
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The gross primary production (GPP) of the terrestrial biosphere is a key source of variability in the global carbon cycle. To estimate this flux, models can rely on remote sensing data (RS-driven), meteorological data (meteo-driven) or a combination of both (hybrid). An intercomparison of 11 models demonstrated that RS-driven models lack the sensitivity to short-term anomalies. Conversely, the simulation of soil moisture dynamics and stress response remains a challenge in meteo-driven models.
Chenwei Xiao, Sönke Zaehle, Hui Yang, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Christiane Schmullius, and Ana Bastos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1211–1237, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1211-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1211-2023, 2023
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Ecosystem resistance reflects their susceptibility during adverse conditions and can be changed by land management. We estimate ecosystem resistance to drought and temperature globally. We find a higher resistance to drought in forests compared to croplands and an evident loss of resistance to drought when primary forests are converted to secondary forests or they are harvested. Old-growth trees tend to be more resistant in some forests and crops benefit from irrigation during drought periods.
Richard Nair, Yunpeng Luo, Tarek El-Madany, Victor Rolo, Javier Pacheco-Labrador, Silvia Caldararu, Kendalynn A. Morris, Marion Schrumpf, Arnaud Carrara, Gerardo Moreno, Markus Reichstein, and Mirco Migliavacca
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2434, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2434, 2023
Preprint archived
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We studied a Mediterranean ecosystem to understand carbon uptake efficiency and its controls. These ecosystems face potential nitrogen-phosphorus imbalances due to pollution. Analysing six years of carbon data, we assessed controls at different timeframes. This is crucial for predicting such vulnerable regions. Our findings revealed N limitation on C uptake, not N:P imbalance, and strong influence of water availability. whether drought or wetness promoted net C uptake depended on timescale.
Theertha Kariyathan, Ana Bastos, Julia Marshall, Wouter Peters, Pieter Tans, and Markus Reichstein
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3299–3312, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3299-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3299-2023, 2023
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The timing and duration of the carbon uptake period (CUP) are sensitive to the occurrence of major phenological events, which are influenced by recent climate change. This study presents an ensemble-based approach for quantifying the timing and duration of the CUP and their uncertainty when derived from atmospheric CO2 measurements with noise and gaps. The CUP metrics derived with the approach are more robust and have less uncertainty than when estimated with the conventional methods.
Hoontaek Lee, Martin Jung, Nuno Carvalhais, Tina Trautmann, Basil Kraft, Markus Reichstein, Matthias Forkel, and Sujan Koirala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1531–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1531-2023, 2023
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We spatially attribute the variance in global terrestrial water storage (TWS) interannual variability (IAV) and its modeling error with two data-driven hydrological models. We find error hotspot regions that show a disproportionately large significance in the global mismatch and the association of the error regions with a smaller-scale lateral convergence of water. Our findings imply that TWS IAV modeling can be efficiently improved by focusing on model representations for the error hotspots.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
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A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Iris Elisabeth de Vries, Sebastian Sippel, Angeline Greene Pendergrass, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 81–100, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-81-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-81-2023, 2023
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Precipitation change is an important consequence of climate change, but it is hard to detect and quantify. Our intuitive method yields robust and interpretable detection of forced precipitation change in three observational datasets for global mean and extreme precipitation, but the different observational datasets show different magnitudes of forced change. Assessment and reduction of uncertainties surrounding forced precipitation change are important for future projections and adaptation.
Sinikka Jasmin Paulus, Tarek Sebastian El-Madany, René Orth, Anke Hildebrandt, Thomas Wutzler, Arnaud Carrara, Gerardo Moreno, Oscar Perez-Priego, Olaf Kolle, Markus Reichstein, and Mirco Migliavacca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 6263–6287, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6263-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6263-2022, 2022
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In this study, we analyze small inputs of water to ecosystems such as fog, dew, and adsorption of vapor. To measure them, we use a scaling system and later test our attribution of different water fluxes to weight changes. We found that they occur frequently during 1 year in a dry summer ecosystem. In each season, a different flux seems dominant, but they all mainly occur during the night. Therefore, they could be important for the biosphere because rain is unevenly distributed over the year.
Melissa Ruiz-Vásquez, Sungmin O, Alexander Brenning, Randal D. Koster, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Ulrich Weber, Gabriele Arduini, Ana Bastos, Markus Reichstein, and René Orth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1451–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1451-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1451-2022, 2022
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Subseasonal forecasts facilitate early warning of extreme events; however their predictability sources are not fully explored. We find that global temperature forecast errors in many regions are related to climate variables such as solar radiation and precipitation, as well as land surface variables such as soil moisture and evaporative fraction. A better representation of these variables in the forecasting and data assimilation systems can support the accuracy of temperature forecasts.
Xin Yu, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Michael Bahn, Anne Klosterhalfen, Alexander Knohl, Franziska Koebsch, Mirco Migliavacca, Martina Mund, Jacob A. Nelson, Benjamin D. Stocker, Sophia Walther, and Ana Bastos
Biogeosciences, 19, 4315–4329, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4315-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4315-2022, 2022
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Identifying drought legacy effects is challenging because they are superimposed on variability driven by climate conditions in the recovery period. We develop a residual-based approach to quantify legacies on gross primary productivity (GPP) from eddy covariance data. The GPP reduction due to legacy effects is comparable to the concurrent effects at two sites in Germany, which reveals the importance of legacy effects. Our novel methodology can be used to quantify drought legacies elsewhere.
D. Montero, C. Aybar, M. D. Mahecha, and S. Wieneke
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVIII-4-W1-2022, 301–306, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W1-2022-301-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVIII-4-W1-2022-301-2022, 2022
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
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The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Zhu Deng, Philippe Ciais, Zitely A. Tzompa-Sosa, Marielle Saunois, Chunjing Qiu, Chang Tan, Taochun Sun, Piyu Ke, Yanan Cui, Katsumasa Tanaka, Xin Lin, Rona L. Thompson, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Yuanyuan Huang, Ronny Lauerwald, Atul K. Jain, Xiaoming Xu, Ana Bastos, Stephen Sitch, Paul I. Palmer, Thomas Lauvaux, Alexandre d'Aspremont, Clément Giron, Antoine Benoit, Benjamin Poulter, Jinfeng Chang, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Steven J. Davis, Zhu Liu, Giacomo Grassi, Clément Albergel, Francesco N. Tubiello, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, and Frédéric Chevallier
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1639–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1639-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1639-2022, 2022
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In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, we proposed a method for reconciling the results of global atmospheric inversions with data from UNFCCC national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs). Here, based on a new global harmonized database that we compiled from the UNFCCC NGHGIs and a comprehensive framework presented in this study to process the results of inversions, we compared their results of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O).
Basil Kraft, Martin Jung, Marco Körner, Sujan Koirala, and Markus Reichstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1579–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1579-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1579-2022, 2022
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We present a physics-aware machine learning model of the global hydrological cycle. As the model uses neural networks under the hood, the simulations of the water cycle are learned from data, and yet they are informed and constrained by physical knowledge. The simulated patterns lie within the range of existing hydrological models and are plausible. The hybrid modeling approach has the potential to tackle key environmental questions from a novel perspective.
Philippe Ciais, Ana Bastos, Frédéric Chevallier, Ronny Lauerwald, Ben Poulter, Josep G. Canadell, Gustaf Hugelius, Robert B. Jackson, Atul Jain, Matthew Jones, Masayuki Kondo, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Prabir K. Patra, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Shilong Piao, Chunjing Qiu, Celso Von Randow, Pierre Regnier, Marielle Saunois, Robert Scholes, Anatoly Shvidenko, Hanqin Tian, Hui Yang, Xuhui Wang, and Bo Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1289–1316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022, 2022
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The second phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) will provide updated quantification and process understanding of CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions and sinks for ten regions of the globe. In this paper, we give definitions, review different methods, and make recommendations for estimating different components of the total land–atmosphere carbon exchange for each region in a consistent and complete approach.
J. Pacheco-Labrador, U. Weber, X. Ma, M. D. Mahecha, N. Carvalhais, C. Wirth, A. Huth, F. J. Bohn, G. Kraemer, U. Heiden, FunDivEUROPE members, and M. Migliavacca
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLVI-1-W1-2021, 49–55, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVI-1-W1-2021-49-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLVI-1-W1-2021-49-2022, 2022
Ana Bastos, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Sönke Zaehle, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Pierre Gentine, Emilie Joetzjer, Sebastian Lienert, Tammas Loughran, Patrick C. McGuire, Sungmin O, Julia Pongratz, and Stephen Sitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1015–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, 2021
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Temperate biomes in Europe are not prone to recurrent dry and hot conditions in summer. However, these conditions may become more frequent in the coming decades. Because stress conditions can leave legacies for many years, this may result in reduced ecosystem resilience under recurrent stress. We assess vegetation vulnerability to the hot and dry summers in 2018 and 2019 in Europe and find the important role of inter-annual legacy effects from 2018 in modulating the impacts of the 2019 event.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021
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Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Christina Heinze-Deml, Sebastian Sippel, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, and Nicolai Meinshausen
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4977–4999, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4977-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4977-2021, 2021
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Quantifying dynamical and thermodynamical components of regional precipitation change is a key challenge in climate science. We introduce a novel statistical model (Latent Linear Adjustment Autoencoder) that combines the flexibility of deep neural networks with the robustness advantages of linear regression. The method enables estimation of the contribution of a coarse-scale atmospheric circulation proxy to daily precipitation at high resolution and in a spatially coherent manner.
Ana Bastos, Kerstin Hartung, Tobias B. Nützel, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Richard A. Houghton, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 745–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-745-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-745-2021, 2021
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Fluxes from land-use change and management (FLUC) are a large source of uncertainty in global and regional carbon budgets. Here, we evaluate the impact of different model parameterisations on FLUC. We show that carbon stock densities and allocation of carbon following transitions contribute more to uncertainty in FLUC than response-curve time constants. Uncertainty in FLUC could thus, in principle, be reduced by available Earth-observation data on carbon densities at a global scale.
Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Louise Chini, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Felix Havermann, George C. Hurtt, Tammas Loughran, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tobias Nützel, Wolfgang A. Obermeier, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 763–782, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-763-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-763-2021, 2021
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In this study, we model the relative importance of several contributors to the land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) flux based on a LULCC dataset including uncertainty estimates. The uncertainty of LULCC is as relevant as applying wood harvest and gross transitions for the cumulative LULCC flux over the industrial period. However, LULCC uncertainty matters less than the other two factors for the LULCC flux in 2014; historical LULCC uncertainty is negligible for estimates of future scenarios.
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tammas Loughran, Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Felix Havermann, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniel S. Goll, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Michael O. Sullivan, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Soenke Zaehle, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 635–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, 2021
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We provide the first spatio-temporally explicit comparison of different model-derived fluxes from land use and land cover changes (fLULCCs) by using the TRENDY v8 dynamic global vegetation models used in the 2019 global carbon budget. We find huge regional fLULCC differences resulting from environmental assumptions, simulated periods, and the timing of land use and land cover changes, and we argue for a method consistent across time and space and for carefully choosing the accounting period.
Christopher Krich, Mirco Migliavacca, Diego G. Miralles, Guido Kraemer, Tarek S. El-Madany, Markus Reichstein, Jakob Runge, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 18, 2379–2404, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2379-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2379-2021, 2021
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Ecosystems and the atmosphere interact with each other. These interactions determine e.g. the water and carbon fluxes and thus are crucial to understand climate change effects. We analysed the interactions for many ecosystems across the globe, showing that very different ecosystems can have similar interactions with the atmosphere. Meteorological conditions seem to be the strongest interaction-shaping factor. This means that common principles can be identified to describe ecosystem behaviour.
Milan Flach, Alexander Brenning, Fabian Gans, Markus Reichstein, Sebastian Sippel, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 18, 39–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-39-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-39-2021, 2021
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Drought and heat events affect the uptake and sequestration of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. We study the impact of droughts and heatwaves on the uptake of CO2 of different vegetation types at the global scale. We find that agricultural areas are generally strongly affected. Forests instead are not particularly sensitive to the events under scrutiny. This implies different water management strategies of forests but also a lack of sensitivity to remote-sensing-derived vegetation activity.
Yuan Zhang, Ana Bastos, Fabienne Maignan, Daniel Goll, Olivier Boucher, Laurent Li, Alessandro Cescatti, Nicolas Vuichard, Xiuzhi Chen, Christof Ammann, M. Altaf Arain, T. Andrew Black, Bogdan Chojnicki, Tomomichi Kato, Ivan Mammarella, Leonardo Montagnani, Olivier Roupsard, Maria J. Sanz, Lukas Siebicke, Marek Urbaniak, Francesco Primo Vaccari, Georg Wohlfahrt, Will Woodgate, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5401–5423, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5401-2020, 2020
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We improved the ORCHIDEE LSM by distinguishing diffuse and direct light in canopy and evaluated the new model with observations from 159 sites. Compared with the old model, the new model has better sunny GPP and reproduced the diffuse light fertilization effect observed at flux sites. Our simulations also indicate different mechanisms causing the observed GPP enhancement under cloudy conditions at different times. The new model has the potential to study large-scale impacts of aerosol changes.
Naixin Fan, Sujan Koirala, Markus Reichstein, Martin Thurner, Valerio Avitabile, Maurizio Santoro, Bernhard Ahrens, Ulrich Weber, and Nuno Carvalhais
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2517–2536, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2517-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2517-2020, 2020
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The turnover time of terrestrial carbon (τ) controls the global carbon cycle–climate feedback. In this study, we provide a new, updated ensemble of diagnostic terrestrial carbon turnover times and associated uncertainties on a global scale. Despite the large variation in both magnitude and spatial patterns of τ, we identified robust features in the spatial patterns of τ which could contribute to uncertainty reductions in future projections of the carbon cycle–climate feedback.
B. Kraft, M. Jung, M. Körner, and M. Reichstein
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B2-2020, 1537–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B2-2020-1537-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B2-2020-1537-2020, 2020
Daniel E. Pabon-Moreno, Talie Musavi, Mirco Migliavacca, Markus Reichstein, Christine Römermann, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 17, 3991–4006, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3991-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3991-2020, 2020
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Ecosystem CO2 uptake changes in time depending on climate conditions. In this study, we analyze how different climate variables affect the timing when CO2 uptake is at a maximum (DOYGPPmax). We found that the joint effects of radiation, temperature, and vapor pressure deficit are the most relevant controlling factors of DOYGPPmax and that if they increase, DOYGPPmax will happen earlier. These results help us to better understand how CO2 uptake could be affected by climate change.
René Orth, Georgia Destouni, Martin Jung, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 17, 2647–2656, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2647-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2647-2020, 2020
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Drought duration is a key control of the large-scale biospheric drought response.
Thereby, the vegetation responds linearly to drought duration at large spatial scales.
The slope of the linear relationship between the vegetation drought response and drought duration is steeper in drier climates.
Guido Kraemer, Gustau Camps-Valls, Markus Reichstein, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 17, 2397–2424, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2397-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2397-2020, 2020
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To closely monitor the state of our planet, we require systems that can monitor
the observation of many different properties at the same time. We create
indicators that resemble the behavior of many different simultaneous
observations. We apply the method to create indicators representing the
Earth's biosphere. The indicators show a productivity gradient and a water
gradient. The resulting indicators can detect a large number of changes and
extremes in the Earth system.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Glen P. Peters, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Philippe Ciais, Francesco N. Tubiello, Giacomo Grassi, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Adrian Leip, Gema Carmona-Garcia, Wilfried Winiwarter, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Dirk Günther, Efisio Solazzo, Anja Kiesow, Ana Bastos, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Giulia Conchedda, Roberto Pilli, Robbie M. Andrew, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, and Albertus J. Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 961–1001, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-961-2020, 2020
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up GHG anthropogenic emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) in the EU28. The data integrate recent AFOLU emission inventories with ecosystem data and land carbon models, aiming at reconciling GHG budgets with official country-level UNFCCC inventories. We provide comprehensive emission assessments in support to policy, facilitating real-time verification procedures.
Hendrik Andersen, Jan Cermak, Julia Fuchs, Peter Knippertz, Marco Gaetani, Julian Quinting, Sebastian Sippel, and Roland Vogt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 3415–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3415-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3415-2020, 2020
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Fog and low clouds (FLCs) are an essential but poorly understood element of Namib regional climate. Here, a satellite-based data set of FLCs in central Namib, reanalysis data, and back trajectories are used to systematically analyze conditions when FLCs occur. Synoptic-scale mechanisms are identified that influence the formation of FLCs and the onshore advection of marine boundary-layer air masses. The findings lead to a new conceptual model of mechanisms that drive FLC variability in the Namib.
Martin Jung, Christopher Schwalm, Mirco Migliavacca, Sophia Walther, Gustau Camps-Valls, Sujan Koirala, Peter Anthoni, Simon Besnard, Paul Bodesheim, Nuno Carvalhais, Frédéric Chevallier, Fabian Gans, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Philipp Köhler, Kazuhito Ichii, Atul K. Jain, Junzhi Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Jacob A. Nelson, Michael O'Sullivan, Martijn Pallandt, Dario Papale, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Christian Rödenbeck, Stephen Sitch, Gianluca Tramontana, Anthony Walker, Ulrich Weber, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 17, 1343–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, 2020
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We test the approach of producing global gridded carbon fluxes based on combining machine learning with local measurements, remote sensing and climate data. We show that we can reproduce seasonal variations in carbon assimilated by plants via photosynthesis and in ecosystem net carbon balance. The ecosystem’s mean carbon balance and carbon flux trends require cautious interpretation. The analysis paves the way for future improvements of the data-driven assessment of carbon fluxes.
Christopher Krich, Jakob Runge, Diego G. Miralles, Mirco Migliavacca, Oscar Perez-Priego, Tarek El-Madany, Arnaud Carrara, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 17, 1033–1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1033-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1033-2020, 2020
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Causal inference promises new insight into biosphere–atmosphere interactions using time series only. To understand the behaviour of a specific method on such data, we used artificial and observation-based data. The observed structures are very interpretable and reveal certain ecosystem-specific behaviour, as only a few relevant links remain, in contrast to pure correlation techniques. Thus, causal inference allows to us gain well-constrained insights into processes and interactions.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Gunnar Brandt, Rune Christiansen, Sarah E. Cornell, Normann Fomferra, Guido Kraemer, Jonas Peters, Paul Bodesheim, Gustau Camps-Valls, Jonathan F. Donges, Wouter Dorigo, Lina M. Estupinan-Suarez, Victor H. Gutierrez-Velez, Martin Gutwin, Martin Jung, Maria C. Londoño, Diego G. Miralles, Phillip Papastefanou, and Markus Reichstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 201–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, 2020
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The ever-growing availability of data streams on different subsystems of the Earth brings unprecedented scientific opportunities. However, researching a data-rich world brings novel challenges. We present the concept of
Earth system data cubesto study the complex dynamics of multiple climate and ecosystem variables across space and time. Using a series of example studies, we highlight the potential of effectively considering the full multivariate nature of processes in the Earth system.
Nora Linscheid, Lina M. Estupinan-Suarez, Alexander Brenning, Nuno Carvalhais, Felix Cremer, Fabian Gans, Anja Rammig, Markus Reichstein, Carlos A. Sierra, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 17, 945–962, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-945-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-945-2020, 2020
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Vegetation typically responds to variation in temperature and rainfall within days. Yet seasonal changes in meteorological conditions, as well as decadal climate variability, additionally shape the state of ecosystems. It remains unclear how vegetation responds to climate variability on these different timescales. We find that the vegetation response to climate variability depends on the timescale considered. This scale dependency should be considered for modeling land–atmosphere interactions.
Javier Pacheco-Labrador, Tarek S. El-Madany, M. Pilar Martin, Rosario Gonzalez-Cascon, Arnaud Carrara, Gerardo Moreno, Oscar Perez-Priego, Tiana Hammer, Heiko Moossen, Kathrin Henkel, Olaf Kolle, David Martini, Vicente Burchard, Christiaan van der Tol, Karl Segl, Markus Reichstein, and Mirco Migliavacca
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-501, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-501, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The new generation of sensors on-board satellites have the potential to provide richer information about the function of vegetation than before. This information, nowadays missing, is fundamental to improve our understanding and prediction of carbon and water cycles, and therefore to anticipate effects and responses to Climate Change. In this manuscript we propose a method to exploit the data provided by these satellites to successfully obtain this information key to face Climate Change.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
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The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Frédéric Chevallier, Christian Rödenbeck, Ashley P. Ballantyne, Fabienne Maignan, Yi Yin, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Pierre Friedlingstein, Josep Peñuelas, Shilong L. Piao, Stephen Sitch, William K. Smith, Xuhui Wang, Zaichun Zhu, Vanessa Haverd, Etsushi Kato, Atul K. Jain, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Poulter, and Dan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12361–12375, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12361-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12361-2019, 2019
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Here we show that land-surface models improved their ability to simulate the increase in the amplitude of seasonal CO2-cycle exchange (SCANBP) by ecosystems compared to estimates by two atmospheric inversions. We find a dominant role of vegetation growth over boreal Eurasia to the observed increase in SCANBP, strongly driven by CO2 fertilization, and an overall negative effect of temperature on SCANBP. Biases can be explained by the sensitivity of simulated microbial respiration to temperature.
Paul C. Stoy, Tarek S. El-Madany, Joshua B. Fisher, Pierre Gentine, Tobias Gerken, Stephen P. Good, Anne Klosterhalfen, Shuguang Liu, Diego G. Miralles, Oscar Perez-Priego, Angela J. Rigden, Todd H. Skaggs, Georg Wohlfahrt, Ray G. Anderson, A. Miriam J. Coenders-Gerrits, Martin Jung, Wouter H. Maes, Ivan Mammarella, Matthias Mauder, Mirco Migliavacca, Jacob A. Nelson, Rafael Poyatos, Markus Reichstein, Russell L. Scott, and Sebastian Wolf
Biogeosciences, 16, 3747–3775, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3747-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3747-2019, 2019
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Key findings are the nearly optimal response of T to atmospheric water vapor pressure deficits across methods and scales. Additionally, the notion that T / ET intermittently approaches 1, which is a basis for many partitioning methods, does not hold for certain methods and ecosystems. To better constrain estimates of E and T from combined ET measurements, we propose a combination of independent measurement techniques to better constrain E and T at the ecosystem scale.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 501–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019, 2019
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The concept of
emergent constraintsis a key method to reduce uncertainty in multi-model climate projections using historical simulations and observations. Here, we present an in-depth analysis of the applicability of the method and uncover possible limitations. Key limitations are a lack of comparability (temporal, spatial, and conceptual) between models and observations and the disagreement between models on system dynamics throughout different levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Sven Boese, Martin Jung, Nuno Carvalhais, Adriaan J. Teuling, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 16, 2557–2572, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2557-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2557-2019, 2019
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This study examines how limited water availability during droughts affects water-use efficiency. This metric describes how much carbon an ecosystem can assimilate for each unit of water lost by transpiration. We test how well different water-use efficiency models can capture the dynamics of transpiration decrease due to increased soil-water limitation. Accounting for the interacting effects of radiation and water limitation is necessary to accurately predict transpiration during these periods.
Emmanuel Arzoumanian, Felix R. Vogel, Ana Bastos, Bakhram Gaynullin, Olivier Laurent, Michel Ramonet, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 2665–2677, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2665-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-2665-2019, 2019
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We tested commercial lower-cost CO2 sensors in laboratory and field studies to see if they can measure atmospheric CO2 mole fractions with less than 1 ppm bias (with monthly calibration), to allow continuous urban CO2 monitoring.
We find that the sensors' CO2 readings are influenced by temperature, atmospheric pressure and water vapour content, but this can be corrected for by adding sensors (T, p, RH) and carefully calibrating each sensor against a high-precision instrument.
Richard K. F. Nair, Kendalynn A. Morris, Martin Hertel, Yunpeng Luo, Gerardo Moreno, Markus Reichstein, Marion Schrumpf, and Mirco Migliavacca
Biogeosciences, 16, 1883–1901, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1883-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1883-2019, 2019
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We investigated how nutrient availability affects seasonal timing of root growth and death in a Spanish savanna, adapted to a long summer drought. We found that nitrogen (N) additions led to more root biomass but number of roots was higher with N and phosphorus together. These effects were strongly affected by the time of year. In autumn root growth occurred after leaf production. This has implications for how we understand biomass production and carbon uptake in these systems.
Xiaolu Tang, Nuno Carvalhais, Catarina Moura, Bernhard Ahrens, Sujan Koirala, Shaohui Fan, Fengying Guan, Wenjie Zhang, Sicong Gao, Vincenzo Magliulo, Pauline Buysse, Shibin Liu, Guo Chen, Wunian Yang, Zhen Yu, Jingjing Liang, Leilei Shi, Shenyan Pu, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-37, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-37, 2019
Preprint withdrawn
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Vegetation CUE is a key measure of carbon transfer from the atmosphere to terrestrial biomass. This study modelled global CUE with published observations using random forest. CUE varied with ecosystem types and spatially decreased with latitude, challenging the previous conclusion that CUE was independent of environmental controls. Our results emphasize a better understanding of environmental controls on CUE to reduce uncertainties in prognostic land-process model simulations.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018
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The Global Carbon Budget 2018 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Milan Flach, Sebastian Sippel, Fabian Gans, Ana Bastos, Alexander Brenning, Markus Reichstein, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 15, 6067–6085, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6067-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6067-2018, 2018
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Northern forests enhanced their productivity during and before the 2010 Russian mega heatwave. We scrutinize this issue with a novel type of multivariate extreme event detection approach. Forests compensate for 54 % of the carbon losses in agricultural ecosystems due to vulnerable conditions in spring and better water management in summer. The findings highlight the importance of forests in mitigating climate change, while not alleviating the consequences of extreme events for food security.
Uwe Mikolajewicz, Florian Ziemen, Guido Cioni, Martin Claussen, Klaus Fraedrich, Marvin Heidkamp, Cathy Hohenegger, Diego Jimenez de la Cuesta, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Alexander Lemburg, Thorsten Mauritsen, Katharina Meraner, Niklas Röber, Hauke Schmidt, Katharina D. Six, Irene Stemmler, Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, Alexander Winkler, Xiuhua Zhu, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1191–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018, 2018
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Model experiments show that changing the sense of Earth's rotation has relatively little impact on the globally and zonally averaged energy budgets but leads to large shifts in continental climates and patterns of precipitation. The retrograde world is greener as the desert area shrinks. Deep water formation shifts from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific with subsequent changes in ocean overturning. Over large areas of the Indian Ocean, cyanobacteria dominate over bulk phytoplankton.
Thomas Wutzler, Antje Lucas-Moffat, Mirco Migliavacca, Jürgen Knauer, Kerstin Sickel, Ladislav Šigut, Olaf Menzer, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 15, 5015–5030, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5015-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5015-2018, 2018
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Net fluxes of carbon dioxide at the ecosystem level measured by eddy covariance are a main source for understanding biosphere–atmosphere interactions. However, there is a need for more usable and extensible tools for post-processing steps of the half-hourly flux data. Therefore, we developed the REddyProc package, providing data filtering, gap filling, and flux partitioning. The extensible functions are compatible with state-of-the-art tools but allow easier integration in extended analysis.
Paul Bodesheim, Martin Jung, Fabian Gans, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Markus Reichstein
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1327–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1327-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1327-2018, 2018
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We provide continuous half-hourly carbon and energy fluxes for 2001 to 2014 at 0.5° spatial resolution, which allows for analyzing diurnal cycles globally. The data set contains four fluxes: gross primary production (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent heat (LE), and sensible heat (H). In addition, we provide a derived product that only contains monthly average diurnal cycles but which also enables us to study the important characteristics of subdaily patterns at a global scale.
Donghai Wu, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Alan K. Knapp, Kevin Wilcox, Michael Bahn, Melinda D. Smith, Sara Vicca, Simone Fatichi, Jakob Zscheischler, Yue He, Xiangyi Li, Akihiko Ito, Almut Arneth, Anna Harper, Anna Ukkola, Athanasios Paschalis, Benjamin Poulter, Changhui Peng, Daniel Ricciuto, David Reinthaler, Guangsheng Chen, Hanqin Tian, Hélène Genet, Jiafu Mao, Johannes Ingrisch, Julia E. S. M. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Lena R. Boysen, Markus Kautz, Michael Schmitt, Patrick Meir, Qiuan Zhu, Roland Hasibeder, Sebastian Sippel, Shree R. S. Dangal, Stephen Sitch, Xiaoying Shi, Yingping Wang, Yiqi Luo, Yongwen Liu, and Shilong Piao
Biogeosciences, 15, 3421–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, 2018
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Our results indicate that most ecosystem models do not capture the observed asymmetric responses under normal precipitation conditions, suggesting an overestimate of the drought effects and/or underestimate of the watering impacts on primary productivity, which may be the result of inadequate representation of key eco-hydrological processes. Collaboration between modelers and site investigators needs to be strengthened to improve the specific processes in ecosystem models in following studies.
Jacob A. Nelson, Nuno Carvalhais, Mirco Migliavacca, Markus Reichstein, and Martin Jung
Biogeosciences, 15, 2433–2447, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2433-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2433-2018, 2018
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Plants have typical daily carbon uptake and water loss cycles. However, these cycles may change under periods of duress, such as water limitation. Here we identify two types of patterns in response to water limitations: a tendency to lose more water in the morning than afternoon and a decoupling of the carbon and water cycles. The findings show differences in responses by trees and grasses and suggest that morning shifts may be more efficient at gaining carbon per unit water used.
Jannis von Buttlar, Jakob Zscheischler, Anja Rammig, Sebastian Sippel, Markus Reichstein, Alexander Knohl, Martin Jung, Olaf Menzer, M. Altaf Arain, Nina Buchmann, Alessandro Cescatti, Damiano Gianelle, Gerard Kiely, Beverly E. Law, Vincenzo Magliulo, Hank Margolis, Harry McCaughey, Lutz Merbold, Mirco Migliavacca, Leonardo Montagnani, Walter Oechel, Marian Pavelka, Matthias Peichl, Serge Rambal, Antonio Raschi, Russell L. Scott, Francesco P. Vaccari, Eva van Gorsel, Andrej Varlagin, Georg Wohlfahrt, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 15, 1293–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1293-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1293-2018, 2018
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Our work systematically quantifies extreme heat and drought event impacts on gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration globally across a wide range of ecosystems. We show that heat extremes typically increased mainly respiration whereas drought decreased both fluxes. Combined heat and drought extremes had opposing effects offsetting each other for respiration, but there were also strong reductions in GPP and hence the strongest reductions in the ecosystems carbon sink capacity.
Matthieu Guimberteau, Dan Zhu, Fabienne Maignan, Ye Huang, Chao Yue, Sarah Dantec-Nédélec, Catherine Ottlé, Albert Jornet-Puig, Ana Bastos, Pierre Laurent, Daniel Goll, Simon Bowring, Jinfeng Chang, Bertrand Guenet, Marwa Tifafi, Shushi Peng, Gerhard Krinner, Agnès Ducharne, Fuxing Wang, Tao Wang, Xuhui Wang, Yilong Wang, Zun Yin, Ronny Lauerwald, Emilie Joetzjer, Chunjing Qiu, Hyungjun Kim, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 121–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-121-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-121-2018, 2018
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Improved projections of future Arctic and boreal ecosystem transformation require improved land surface models that integrate processes specific to these cold biomes. To this end, this study lays out relevant new parameterizations in the ORCHIDEE-MICT land surface model. These describe the interactions between soil carbon, soil temperature and hydrology, and their resulting feedbacks on water and CO2 fluxes, in addition to a recently developed fire module.
Chao Yue, Philippe Ciais, Ana Bastos, Frederic Chevallier, Yi Yin, Christian Rödenbeck, and Taejin Park
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 13903–13919, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13903-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-13903-2017, 2017
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The year 2015 appeared as a paradox regarding how global carbon cycle has responded to climate variation: it is the greenest year since 2000 according to satellite observation, but the atmospheric CO2 growth rate is also the highest since 1959. We found that this is due to a only moderate land carbon sink, because high growing-season sink in northern lands has been partly offset by autumn and winter release and the late-year El Niño has led to an abrupt transition to land source in the tropics.
Iulia Ilie, Peter Dittrich, Nuno Carvalhais, Martin Jung, Andreas Heinemeyer, Mirco Migliavacca, James I. L. Morison, Sebastian Sippel, Jens-Arne Subke, Matthew Wilkinson, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3519–3545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3519-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3519-2017, 2017
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Accurate representation of land-atmosphere carbon fluxes is essential for future climate projections, although some of the responses of CO2 fluxes to climate often remain uncertain. The increase in available data allows for new approaches in their modelling. We automatically developed models for ecosystem and soil carbon respiration using a machine learning approach. When compared with established respiration models, we found that they are better in prediction as well as offering new insights.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Sebastian Sippel, Jonathan F. Donges, Thomas Kaminski, Stefan Metzger, Mirco Migliavacca, Dario Papale, Anja Rammig, and Jakob Zscheischler
Biogeosciences, 14, 4255–4277, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4255-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4255-2017, 2017
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We investigate the likelihood of ecological in situ networks to detect and monitor the impact of extreme events in the terrestrial biosphere.
Jakob Zscheischler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Valerio Avitabile, Leonardo Calle, Nuno Carvalhais, Philippe Ciais, Fabian Gans, Nicolas Gruber, Jens Hartmann, Martin Herold, Kazuhito Ichii, Martin Jung, Peter Landschützer, Goulven G. Laruelle, Ronny Lauerwald, Dario Papale, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Poulter, Deepak Ray, Pierre Regnier, Christian Rödenbeck, Rosa M. Roman-Cuesta, Christopher Schwalm, Gianluca Tramontana, Alexandra Tyukavina, Riccardo Valentini, Guido van der Werf, Tristram O. West, Julie E. Wolf, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 14, 3685–3703, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3685-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3685-2017, 2017
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Here we synthesize a wide range of global spatiotemporal observational data on carbon exchanges between the Earth surface and the atmosphere. A key challenge was to consistently combining observational products of terrestrial and aquatic surfaces. Our primary goal is to identify today’s key uncertainties and observational shortcomings that would need to be addressed in future measurement campaigns or expansions of in situ observatories.
Milan Flach, Fabian Gans, Alexander Brenning, Joachim Denzler, Markus Reichstein, Erik Rodner, Sebastian Bathiany, Paul Bodesheim, Yanira Guanche, Sebastian Sippel, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 677–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-677-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-677-2017, 2017
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Anomalies and extremes are often detected using univariate peak-over-threshold approaches in the geoscience community. The Earth system is highly multivariate. We compare eight multivariate anomaly detection algorithms and combinations of data preprocessing. We identify three anomaly detection algorithms that outperform univariate extreme event detection approaches. The workflows have the potential to reveal novelties in data. Remarks on their application to real Earth observations are provided.
Ana Bastos, Anna Peregon, Érico A. Gani, Sergey Khudyaev, Chao Yue, Wei Li, Célia Gouveia, and Philippe Ciais
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-267, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-267, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The ice-core record indicates a stabilization of atmospheric CO2 in the 1940s, which is not captured by the state-of-the-art reconstructions of CO2 sources and sinks.
The 1940s where marked by major socio-economic disruptions due to war. At the same time, very strong warming was registered in the high-latitudes. Here we evaluate the contributions of these two factors to a possible increase in the terrestrial sink not captured in other datasets, using the Former Soviet Union as a case study.
Sven Boese, Martin Jung, Nuno Carvalhais, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 14, 3015–3026, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3015-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3015-2017, 2017
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For plants, the ratio of carbon uptake to water loss by transpiration is usually thought to depend on characteristic properties (their adaption to water scarcity) and the dryness of the atmosphere at any given moment. We show that, on the ecosystem scale, radiation has an independent effect on this ratio that had not been previously considered. When including this variable in models, predictions of transpiration improve considerably.
Sebastian Sippel, Jakob Zscheischler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Rene Orth, Markus Reichstein, Martha Vogel, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 387–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-387-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-387-2017, 2017
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The present study (1) evaluates land–atmosphere coupling in the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble against an ensemble of benchmarking datasets and (2) refines the model ensemble using a land–atmosphere coupling diagnostic as constraint. Our study demonstrates that a considerable fraction of coupled climate models overemphasize warm-season
moisture-limitedclimate regimes in midlatitude regions. This leads to biases in daily-scale temperature extremes, which are alleviated in a constrained ensemble.
Daniel S. Goll, Alexander J. Winkler, Thomas Raddatz, Ning Dong, Ian Colin Prentice, Philippe Ciais, and Victor Brovkin
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2009–2030, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2009-2017, 2017
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The response of soil organic carbon decomposition to warming and the interactions between nitrogen and carbon cycling affect the feedbacks between the land carbon cycle and the climate. In the model JSBACH carbon–nitrogen interactions have only a small effect on the feedbacks, whereas modifications of soil organic carbon decomposition have a large effect. The carbon cycle in the improved model is more resilient to climatic changes than in previous version of the model.
Sebastian Sippel, Jakob Zscheischler, Martin Heimann, Holger Lange, Miguel D. Mahecha, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, and Markus Reichstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 441–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-441-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-441-2017, 2017
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The paper re-investigates the question whether observed precipitation extremes and annual totals have been increasing in the world's dry regions over the last 60 years. Despite recently postulated increasing trends, we demonstrate that large uncertainties prevail due to (1) the choice of dryness definition and (2) statistical data processing. In fact, we find only minor (and only some significant) increases if (1) dryness is based on aridity and (2) statistical artefacts are accounted for.
Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Jonathan Barichivich, Laurent Bopp, Victor Brovkin, Thomas Gasser, Shushi Peng, Julia Pongratz, Nicolas Viovy, and Cathy M. Trudinger
Biogeosciences, 13, 4877–4897, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4877-2016, 2016
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The ice-core record shows a stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 in the 1940s, despite continued emissions from fossil fuel burning and land-use change (LUC). We use up-to-date reconstructions of the CO2 sources and sinks over the 20th century to evaluate whether these capture the CO2 plateau and to test the previously proposed hypothesis. Both strong terrestrial sink, possibly due to LUC not fully accounted for in the records, and enhanced oceanic uptake are necessary to explain this stall.
Gianluca Tramontana, Martin Jung, Christopher R. Schwalm, Kazuhito Ichii, Gustau Camps-Valls, Botond Ráduly, Markus Reichstein, M. Altaf Arain, Alessandro Cescatti, Gerard Kiely, Lutz Merbold, Penelope Serrano-Ortiz, Sven Sickert, Sebastian Wolf, and Dario Papale
Biogeosciences, 13, 4291–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4291-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4291-2016, 2016
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We have evaluated 11 machine learning (ML) methods and two complementary drivers' setup to estimate the carbon dioxide (CO2) and energy exchanges between land ecosystems and atmosphere. Obtained results have shown high consistency among ML and high capability to estimate the spatial and seasonal variability of the target fluxes. The results were good for all the ecosystems, with limitations to the ones in the extreme environments (cold, hot) or less represented in the training data (tropics).
S. Sippel, F. E. L. Otto, M. Forkel, M. R. Allen, B. P. Guillod, M. Heimann, M. Reichstein, S. I. Seneviratne, K. Thonicke, and M. D. Mahecha
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 71–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-71-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-71-2016, 2016
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We introduce a novel technique to bias correct climate model output for impact simulations that preserves its physical consistency and multivariate structure. The methodology considerably improves the representation of extremes in climatic variables relative to conventional bias correction strategies. Illustrative simulations of biosphere–atmosphere carbon and water fluxes with a biosphere model (LPJmL) show that the novel technique can be usefully applied to drive climate impact models.
O. Perez-Priego, J. Guan, M. Rossini, F. Fava, T. Wutzler, G. Moreno, N. Carvalhais, A. Carrara, O. Kolle, T. Julitta, M. Schrumpf, M. Reichstein, and M. Migliavacca
Biogeosciences, 12, 6351–6367, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6351-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6351-2015, 2015
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Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and photochemical reflectance index revealed controls of climate and nutrient availability on photosynthesis (gross primary production, GPP). Meteo-driven models (MMs) were unable to describe nutrient-induced effects on GPP. Important implications can be derived from these results, and uncertainties in the prediction of global GPP still remain when MMs do not account for plant nutrient availability.
S. Hashimoto, N. Carvalhais, A. Ito, M. Migliavacca, K. Nishina, and M. Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 12, 4121–4132, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4121-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4121-2015, 2015
A. Rammig, M. Wiedermann, J. F. Donges, F. Babst, W. von Bloh, D. Frank, K. Thonicke, and M. D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 12, 373–385, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-373-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-373-2015, 2015
P. Ciais, A. J. Dolman, A. Bombelli, R. Duren, A. Peregon, P. J. Rayner, C. Miller, N. Gobron, G. Kinderman, G. Marland, N. Gruber, F. Chevallier, R. J. Andres, G. Balsamo, L. Bopp, F.-M. Bréon, G. Broquet, R. Dargaville, T. J. Battin, A. Borges, H. Bovensmann, M. Buchwitz, J. Butler, J. G. Canadell, R. B. Cook, R. DeFries, R. Engelen, K. R. Gurney, C. Heinze, M. Heimann, A. Held, M. Henry, B. Law, S. Luyssaert, J. Miller, T. Moriyama, C. Moulin, R. B. Myneni, C. Nussli, M. Obersteiner, D. Ojima, Y. Pan, J.-D. Paris, S. L. Piao, B. Poulter, S. Plummer, S. Quegan, P. Raymond, M. Reichstein, L. Rivier, C. Sabine, D. Schimel, O. Tarasova, R. Valentini, R. Wang, G. van der Werf, D. Wickland, M. Williams, and C. Zehner
Biogeosciences, 11, 3547–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3547-2014, 2014
A. Bastos, C. M. Gouveia, R. M. Trigo, and S. W. Running
Biogeosciences, 11, 3421–3435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3421-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3421-2014, 2014
X. Wu, F. Babst, P. Ciais, D. Frank, M. Reichstein, M. Wattenbach, C. Zang, and M. D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 11, 3057–3068, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3057-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3057-2014, 2014
J. Zscheischler, M. Reichstein, S. Harmeling, A. Rammig, E. Tomelleri, and M. D. Mahecha
Biogeosciences, 11, 2909–2924, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2909-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2909-2014, 2014
B. Ahrens, M. Reichstein, W. Borken, J. Muhr, S. E. Trumbore, and T. Wutzler
Biogeosciences, 11, 2147–2168, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2147-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2147-2014, 2014
J. v. Buttlar, J. Zscheischler, and M. D. Mahecha
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 203–215, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-203-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-203-2014, 2014
B. Badawy, C. Rödenbeck, M. Reichstein, N. Carvalhais, and M. Heimann
Biogeosciences, 10, 6485–6508, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6485-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6485-2013, 2013
B. Mueller, M. Hirschi, C. Jimenez, P. Ciais, P. A. Dirmeyer, A. J. Dolman, J. B. Fisher, M. Jung, F. Ludwig, F. Maignan, D. G. Miralles, M. F. McCabe, M. Reichstein, J. Sheffield, K. Wang, E. F. Wood, Y. Zhang, and S. I. Seneviratne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3707–3720, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3707-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3707-2013, 2013
M. C. Braakhekke, T. Wutzler, C. Beer, J. Kattge, M. Schrumpf, B. Ahrens, I. Schöning, M. R. Hoosbeek, B. Kruijt, P. Kabat, and M. Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 10, 399–420, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-399-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-399-2013, 2013
G. Lasslop, M. Migliavacca, G. Bohrer, M. Reichstein, M. Bahn, A. Ibrom, C. Jacobs, P. Kolari, D. Papale, T. Vesala, G. Wohlfahrt, and A. Cescatti
Biogeosciences, 9, 5243–5259, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5243-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5243-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Earth system interactions with the biosphere: biogeochemical cycles
How does the phytoplankton–light feedback affect the marine N2O inventory?
Time-varying changes and uncertainties in the CMIP6 ocean carbon sink from global to local scale
Contrasting projections of the ENSO-driven CO2 flux variability in the equatorial Pacific under high-warming scenario
Divergent historical GPP trends among state-of-the-art multi-model simulations and satellite-based products
Indian Ocean marine biogeochemical variability and its feedback on simulated South Asia climate
Impact of bioenergy crop expansion on climate–carbon cycle feedbacks in overshoot scenarios
Biogeochemical functioning of the Baltic Sea
Process-based analysis of terrestrial carbon flux predictability
Parameter uncertainty dominates C-cycle forecast errors over most of Brazil for the 21st century
Resolving ecological feedbacks on the ocean carbon sink in Earth system models
Disequilibrium of terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget caused by disturbance-induced emissions and non-CO2 carbon export flows: a global model assessment
Ocean phosphorus inventory: large uncertainties in future projections on millennial timescales and their consequences for ocean deoxygenation
Evaluation of terrestrial pan-Arctic carbon cycling using a data-assimilation system
Hazards of decreasing marine oxygen: the near-term and millennial-scale benefits of meeting the Paris climate targets
The biomass burning contribution to climate–carbon-cycle feedback
Earth system model simulations show different feedback strengths of the terrestrial carbon cycle under glacial and interglacial conditions
Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties
Nitrogen leaching from natural ecosystems under global change: a modelling study
Structure and functioning of the acid–base system in the Baltic Sea
The potential of using remote sensing data to estimate air–sea CO2 exchange in the Baltic Sea
Effects of the 2014 major Baltic inflow on methane and nitrous oxide dynamics in the water column of the central Baltic Sea
Evapotranspiration seasonality across the Amazon Basin
Seasonal effects of irrigation on land–atmosphere latent heat, sensible heat, and carbon fluxes in semiarid basin
Divergent predictions of carbon storage between two global land models: attribution of the causes through traceability analysis
Effect of various climate databases on the results of dendroclimatic analysis
The Southern Ocean as a constraint to reduce uncertainty in future ocean carbon sinks
Comment on: "Recent revisions of phosphate rock reserves and resources: a critique" by Edixhoven et al. (2014) – clarifying comments and thoughts on key conceptions, conclusions and interpretation to allow for sustainable action
Climate and carbon cycle dynamics in a CESM simulation from 850 to 2100 CE
The ocean carbon sink – impacts, vulnerabilities and challenges
Recent revisions of phosphate rock reserves and resources: a critique
The sensitivity of carbon turnover in the Community Land Model to modified assumptions about soil processes
Comment on "Carbon farming in hot, dry coastal areas: an option for climate change mitigation" by Becker et al. (2013)
Dynamical and biogeochemical control on the decadal variability of ocean carbon fluxes
Soil temperature response to 21st century global warming: the role of and some implications for peat carbon in thawing permafrost soils in North America
Thermodynamic dissipation theory for the origin of life
Sarah Berthet, Julien Jouanno, Roland Séférian, Marion Gehlen, and William Llovel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 399–412, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-399-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-399-2023, 2023
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Phytoplankton absorbs the solar radiation entering the ocean surface and contributes to keeping the associated energy in surface waters. This natural effect is either not represented in the ocean component of climate models or its representation is simplified. An incomplete representation of this biophysical interaction affects the way climate models simulate ocean warming, which leads to uncertainties in projections of oceanic emissions of an important greenhouse gas (nitrous oxide).
Parsa Gooya, Neil C. Swart, and Roberta C. Hamme
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 383–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-383-2023, 2023
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We report on the ocean carbon sink and sources of uptake uncertainty from the latest version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We diagnose the highly active regions for the sink and show how knowledge about historical regions of uptake will provide information about future regions of uptake change and uncertainty. We evaluate the dependence of uncertainty on the location and integration scale. Our results help make useful suggestions for both modeling and observational communities.
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1097–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, 2022
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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is the main driver for the natural variability of global atmospheric CO2. It modulates the CO2 fluxes in the tropical Pacific with anomalous CO2 influx during El Niño and outflux during La Niña. This relationship is projected to reverse by half of Earth system models studied here under the business-as-usual scenario. This study shows models that simulate a positive bias in surface carbonate concentrations simulate a shift in the ENSO–CO2 flux relationship.
Ruqi Yang, Jun Wang, Ning Zeng, Stephen Sitch, Wenhan Tang, Matthew Joseph McGrath, Qixiang Cai, Di Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Hanqin Tian, Atul K. Jain, and Pengfei Han
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 833–849, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-833-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-833-2022, 2022
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We comprehensively investigate historical GPP trends based on five kinds of GPP datasets and analyze the causes for any discrepancies among them. Results show contrasting behaviors between modeled and satellite-based GPP trends, and their inconsistencies are likely caused by the contrasting performance between satellite-derived and modeled leaf area index (LAI). Thus, the uncertainty in satellite-based GPP induced by LAI undermines its role in assessing the performance of DGVM simulations.
Dmitry V. Sein, Anton Y. Dvornikov, Stanislav D. Martyanov, William Cabos, Vladimir A. Ryabchenko, Matthias Gröger, Daniela Jacob, Alok Kumar Mishra, and Pankaj Kumar
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 809–831, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-809-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-809-2022, 2022
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The effect of the marine biogeochemical variability upon the South Asian regional climate has been investigated. In the experiment where its full impact is activated, the average sea surface temperature is lower over most of the ocean. When the biogeochemical coupling is included, the main impacts include the enhanced phytoplankton primary production, a shallower thermocline, decreased SST and water temperature in subsurface layers.
Irina Melnikova, Olivier Boucher, Patricia Cadule, Katsumasa Tanaka, Thomas Gasser, Tomohiro Hajima, Yann Quilcaille, Hideo Shiogama, Roland Séférian, Kaoru Tachiiri, Nicolas Vuichard, Tokuta Yokohata, and Philippe Ciais
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 779–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-779-2022, 2022
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The deployment of bioenergy crops for capturing carbon from the atmosphere facilitates global warming mitigation via generating negative CO2 emissions. Here, we explored the consequences of large-scale energy crops deployment on the land carbon cycle. The land-use change for energy crops leads to carbon emissions and loss of future potential increase in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems. This impact should be taken into account by the modeling teams and accounted for in mitigation policies.
Karol Kuliński, Gregor Rehder, Eero Asmala, Alena Bartosova, Jacob Carstensen, Bo Gustafsson, Per O. J. Hall, Christoph Humborg, Tom Jilbert, Klaus Jürgens, H. E. Markus Meier, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Michael Naumann, Jørgen E. Olesen, Oleg Savchuk, Andreas Schramm, Caroline P. Slomp, Mikhail Sofiev, Anna Sobek, Beata Szymczycha, and Emma Undeman
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 633–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-633-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-633-2022, 2022
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The paper covers the aspects related to changes in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus (C, N, P) external loads; their transformations in the coastal zone; changes in organic matter production (eutrophication) and remineralization (oxygen availability); and the role of sediments in burial and turnover of C, N, and P. Furthermore, this paper also focuses on changes in the marine CO2 system, the structure of the microbial community, and the role of contaminants for biogeochemical processes.
István Dunkl, Aaron Spring, Pierre Friedlingstein, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1413–1426, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1413-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1413-2021, 2021
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The variability in atmospheric CO2 is largely controlled by terrestrial carbon fluxes. These land–atmosphere fluxes are predictable for around 2 years, but the mechanisms providing the predictability are not well understood. By decomposing the predictability of carbon fluxes into individual contributors we were able to explain the spatial and seasonal patterns and the interannual variability of CO2 flux predictability.
Thomas Luke Smallman, David Thomas Milodowski, Eráclito Sousa Neto, Gerbrand Koren, Jean Ometto, and Mathew Williams
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1191–1237, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1191-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1191-2021, 2021
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Our study provides a novel assessment of model parameter, structure and climate change scenario uncertainty contribution to future predictions of the Brazilian terrestrial carbon stocks to 2100. We calibrated (2001–2017) five models of the terrestrial C cycle of varied structure. The calibrated models were then projected to 2100 under multiple climate change scenarios. Parameter uncertainty dominates overall uncertainty, being ~ 40 times that of either model structure or climate change scenario.
David I. Armstrong McKay, Sarah E. Cornell, Katherine Richardson, and Johan Rockström
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 797–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-797-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-797-2021, 2021
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We use an Earth system model with two new ocean ecosystem features (plankton size traits and temperature-sensitive nutrient recycling) to revaluate the effect of climate change on sinking organic carbon (the
biological pump) and the ocean carbon sink. These features lead to contrary pump responses to warming, with a combined effect of a smaller sink despite a more resilient pump. These results show the importance of including ecological dynamics in models for understanding climate feedbacks.
Akihiko Ito
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 685–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-685-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-685-2019, 2019
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Various minor carbon flows such as trace gas emissions, disturbance-induced emissions, and subsurface exports can affect the carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems in complicated ways. This study assessed how much these minor flows influence the carbon budget using a process-based model. It was found that the minor flows, though small in magnitude, could significantly affect net carbon budget at as much strengths as major flows, implying their long-term importance in Earth's climate system.
Tronje P. Kemena, Angela Landolfi, Andreas Oschlies, Klaus Wallmann, and Andrew W. Dale
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 539–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-539-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-539-2019, 2019
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Oceanic deoxygenation is driven by climate change in several areas of the global ocean. Measurements indicate that ocean volumes with very low oxygen levels expand, with consequences for marine organisms and fishery. We found climate-change-driven phosphorus (P) input in the ocean is hereby an important driver for deoxygenation on longer timescales with effects in the next millennia.
Efrén López-Blanco, Jean-François Exbrayat, Magnus Lund, Torben R. Christensen, Mikkel P. Tamstorf, Darren Slevin, Gustaf Hugelius, Anthony A. Bloom, and Mathew Williams
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 233–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-233-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-233-2019, 2019
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The terrestrial CO2 exchange in Arctic ecosystems plays an important role in the global carbon cycle and is particularly sensitive to the ongoing warming experienced in recent years. To improve our understanding of the atmosphere–biosphere interplay, we evaluated the state of the terrestrial pan-Arctic carbon cycling using a promising data assimilation system in the first 15 years of the 21st century. This is crucial when it comes to making predictions about the future state of the carbon cycle.
Gianna Battaglia and Fortunat Joos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 797–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-797-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-797-2018, 2018
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Human-caused, climate change hazards in the ocean continue to aggravate over a very long time. For business as usual, we project the ocean oxygen content to decrease by 40 % over the next thousand years. This would likely have severe consequences for marine life. Global warming and oxygen loss are linked, and meeting the warming target of the Paris Climate Agreement effectively limits related marine hazards. Developments over many thousands of years should be considered to assess marine risks.
Sandy P. Harrison, Patrick J. Bartlein, Victor Brovkin, Sander Houweling, Silvia Kloster, and I. Colin Prentice
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 663–677, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-663-2018, 2018
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Temperature affects fire occurrence and severity. Warming will increase fire-related carbon emissions and thus atmospheric CO2. The size of this feedback is not known. We use charcoal records to estimate pre-industrial fire emissions and a simple land–biosphere model to quantify the feedback. We infer a feedback strength of 5.6 3.2 ppm CO2 per degree of warming and a gain of 0.09 ± 0.05 for a climate sensitivity of 2.8 K. Thus, fire feedback is a large part of the climate–carbon-cycle feedback.
Markus Adloff, Christian H. Reick, and Martin Claussen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 413–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-413-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-413-2018, 2018
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Computer simulations show that during an ice age a strong atmospheric CO2 increase would have resulted in stronger carbon uptake of the continents than today. Causes are the larger potential of glacial vegetation to increase its photosynthetic efficiency under increasing CO2 and the smaller amount of carbon in extratropical soils during an ice age that can be released under greenhouse warming. Hence, for different climates the Earth system is differently sensitive to carbon cycle perturbations.
Jean-François Exbrayat, A. Anthony Bloom, Pete Falloon, Akihiko Ito, T. Luke Smallman, and Mathew Williams
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 153–165, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018, 2018
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We use global observations of current terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) to constrain the uncertainty in large ensemble 21st century projections of NPP under a "business as usual" scenario using a skill-based multi-model averaging technique. Our results show that this procedure helps greatly reduce the uncertainty in global projections of NPP. We also identify regions where uncertainties in models and observations remain too large to confidently conclude a sign of the change of NPP.
Maarten C. Braakhekke, Karin T. Rebel, Stefan C. Dekker, Benjamin Smith, Arthur H. W. Beusen, and Martin J. Wassen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1121–1139, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1121-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1121-2017, 2017
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Nitrogen input in natural ecosystems usually has a positive effect on plant growth. However, too much N causes N leaching, which contributes to water pollution. Using a global model we estimated that N leaching from natural lands has increased by 73 % during the 20th century, mainly due to rising N deposition from the atmosphere caused by emissions from fossil fuels and agriculture. Climate change and increasing CO2 concentration had positive and negative effects (respectively) on N leaching.
Karol Kuliński, Bernd Schneider, Beata Szymczycha, and Marcin Stokowski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1107–1120, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1107-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1107-2017, 2017
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This review describes the general knowledge of the marine acid–base system as well as the peculiarities identified and reported for the Baltic Sea specifically. We discuss issues such as dissociation constants in the brackish water, the structure of the total alkalinity in the Baltic Sea, long-term changes in total alkalinity, and the acid–base effects of biomass production and mineralization. We identify research gaps and specify bottlenecks concerning the Baltic Sea acid–base system.
Gaëlle Parard, Anna Rutgersson, Sindu Raj Parampil, and Anastase Alexandre Charantonis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1093–1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1093-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1093-2017, 2017
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Coastal environments and shelf sea represent 7.6 % of the total oceanic surface area. They are, however, biogeochemically more dynamic and probably more vulnerable to climate change than the open ocean. Whatever the responses of the open ocean to climate change, they will propagate to the coastal ocean. We used the self-organizing multiple linear output (SOMLO) method to estimate the ocean surface pCO2 in the Baltic Sea from remotely sensed measurements and we estimated the air–sea CO2 flux.
Jukka-Pekka Myllykangas, Tom Jilbert, Gunnar Jakobs, Gregor Rehder, Jan Werner, and Susanna Hietanen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 817–826, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-817-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-817-2017, 2017
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The deep waters of the Baltic Sea host an expanding
dead zone, where low-oxygen conditions favour the natural production of two strong greenhouse gases, methane and nitrous oxide. Oxygen is introduced into the deeps only during rare
salt pulses. We studied the effects of a recent salt pulse on Baltic greenhouse gas production. We found that where oxygen was introduced, methane was largely removed, while nitrous oxide production increased, indicating strong effects on greenhouse gas dynamics.
Eduardo Eiji Maeda, Xuanlong Ma, Fabien Hubert Wagner, Hyungjun Kim, Taikan Oki, Derek Eamus, and Alfredo Huete
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 439–454, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-439-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-439-2017, 2017
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The Amazon River basin continuously transfers massive volumes of water from the land surface to the atmosphere, thereby having massive influence on global climate patterns. Nonetheless, the characteristics of ET across the Amazon basin, as well as the relative contribution of the multiple drivers to this process, are still uncertain. This study carries out a water balance approach to analyse seasonal patterns in ET and their relationships with water and energy drivers across the Amazon Basin.
Yujin Zeng, Zhenghui Xie, and Shuang Liu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 113–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-113-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-113-2017, 2017
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Irrigation constitutes 70 % of human water consumption. In this study, using the improved CLM4.5 with an active crop model, two 1 km simulations investigating the effects of irrigation on latent heat, sensible heat, and carbon fluxes in the Heihe River basin in northwestern China were conducted using a high-quality irrigation dataset compiled from 1981 to 2013. The results revealed the key role of irrigation in the control of land–atmosphere water, energy, and carbon fluxes in semiarid basin.
Rashid Rafique, Jianyang Xia, Oleksandra Hararuk, Ghassem R. Asrar, Guoyong Leng, Yingping Wang, and Yiqi Luo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 649–658, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-649-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-649-2016, 2016
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Traceability analysis was used to diagnose the causes of differences in simulating ecosystem carbon storage capacity between two land models: CLMA-CASA and CABLE. Results showed that the simulated ecosystem carbon storage capacity is largely influenced by the photosynthesis parameterization, residence time and organic matter decomposition.
Roman Sitko, Jaroslav Vido, Jaroslav Škvarenina, Viliam Pichler, Ĺubomír Scheer, Jana Škvareninová, and Paulína Nalevanková
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 385–395, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-385-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-385-2016, 2016
A. Kessler and J. Tjiputra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 295–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-295-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-295-2016, 2016
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The uncertainty of ocean carbon uptake in ESMs is projected to grow 2-fold by the end of the 21st century. We found that models that take up anomalously low (high) CO2 in the Southern Ocean (SO) today project low (high) cumulative CO2 uptake in the 21st century; thus the SO can be used to constrain future global uptake uncertainty. Inter-model spread in the SO carbon sink arises from variations in the pCO2 seasonality, specifically bias in the simulated timing and amplitude of NPP and SST.
R. W. Scholz and F.-W. Wellmer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 103–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-103-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-103-2016, 2016
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The 2014 USGS data could decrease from 67 Gt phosphate rock (PR) reserves to 58.5 Gt marketable PR (PR-M) if data on PR-ore are transferred to PR-M. The 50 Gt PR-M estimate for Moroccan reserves is reasonable. Geoeconomics suggests that large parts of resources and geopotential become future reserves. As phosphate is essential for food production and reserve data alone are unsufficient for assessing long-run supply security, an international standing committee may assess future PR accessibility.
F. Lehner, F. Joos, C. C. Raible, J. Mignot, A. Born, K. M. Keller, and T. F. Stocker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 411–434, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-411-2015, 2015
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We present the first last-millennium simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) including an interactive carbon cycle in both ocean and land component. Volcanic eruptions emerge as the strongest forcing factor for the preindustrial climate and carbon cycle. We estimate the climate-carbon-cycle feedback in CESM to be at the lower bounds of empirical estimates (1.3ppm/°C). The time of emergence for interannual global land and ocean carbon uptake rates are 1947 and 1877, respectively.
C. Heinze, S. Meyer, N. Goris, L. Anderson, R. Steinfeldt, N. Chang, C. Le Quéré, and D. C. E. Bakker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 327–358, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-327-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-327-2015, 2015
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Rapidly rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations caused by human actions over the past 250 years have raised cause for concern that changes in Earth’s climate system may progress at a much faster pace and larger extent than during the past 20,000 years. Questions that yet need to be answered are what the carbon uptake kinetics of the oceans will be in the future and how the increase in oceanic carbon inventory will affect its ecosystems. Major future ocean carbon research challenges are discussed.
J. D. Edixhoven, J. Gupta, and H. H. G. Savenije
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 491–507, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-491-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-491-2014, 2014
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Phosphate rock is a finite resource required for fertilizer production. Following a debate over the PR depletion timeline, global PR reserves were recently increased 4-fold based mainly on a restatement of Moroccan reserves. We review whether this restatement is methodologically compatible with resource terminology used in major resource classifications, whether resource classification nomenclature is sufficiently understood in the literature, and whether the recent restatements are reliable.
B. Foereid, D. S. Ward, N. Mahowald, E. Paterson, and J. Lehmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 211–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-211-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-211-2014, 2014
M. Heimann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 41–42, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-41-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-41-2014, 2014
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Short summary
Quantifying the imprint of large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics and associated carbon cycle responses is key to improving our understanding of carbon cycle dynamics. Using a statistical model that relies on spatiotemporal sea level pressure as a proxy for large-scale atmospheric circulation, we quantify the fraction of interannual variability in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and the land CO2 sink that are driven by atmospheric circulation variability.
Quantifying the imprint of large-scale atmospheric circulation dynamics and associated carbon...
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