Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-563-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-563-2020
Research article
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25 Jun 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 25 Jun 2020

The role of prior assumptions in carbon budget calculations

Benjamin Sanderson

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Cited articles

Allen, M. R., Frame, D. J., Huntingford, C., Jones, C. D., Lowe, J. A., Meinshausen, M., and Meinshausen, N.: Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne, Nature, 458, 1163, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08019, 2009. a, b
Anderson, K. and Peters, G.: The trouble with negative emissions, Science, 354, 182–183, 2016. a, b, c
Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Paynter, D., Silvers, L. G., Zhou, C., Mauritsen, T., Webb, M. J., Armour, K. C., Forster, P. M., and Titchner, H.: Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 8490–8499, 2018. a, b, c
Armour, K. C.: Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 331–335, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3278, 2017. a
Armour, K. C., Bitz, C. M., and Roe, G. H.: Time-varying climate sensitivity from regional feedbacks, J. Climate, 26, 4518–4534, 2013. a, b, c
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Short summary
Levels of future temperature change are often used interchangeably with carbon budget allowances in climate policy, a relatively robust relationship on the timescale of this century. However, recent advances in understanding underline that continued warming after net-zero emissions have been achieved cannot be ruled out by observations of warming to date. We consider here how such behavior could be constrained and how policy can be framed in the context of these uncertainties.
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