Articles | Volume 9, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018
Research article
 | 
21 Feb 2018
Research article |  | 21 Feb 2018

Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties

Jean-François Exbrayat, A. Anthony Bloom, Pete Falloon, Akihiko Ito, T. Luke Smallman, and Mathew Williams

Related authors

Lagged effects regulate the inter-annual variability of the tropical carbon balance
A. Anthony Bloom, Kevin W. Bowman, Junjie Liu, Alexandra G. Konings, John R. Worden, Nicholas C. Parazoo, Victoria Meyer, John T. Reager, Helen M. Worden, Zhe Jiang, Gregory R. Quetin, T. Luke Smallman, Jean-François Exbrayat, Yi Yin, Sassan S. Saatchi, Mathew Williams, and David S. Schimel
Biogeosciences, 17, 6393–6422, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6393-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6393-2020, 2020
Short summary
Evaluation of terrestrial pan-Arctic carbon cycling using a data-assimilation system
Efrén López-Blanco, Jean-François Exbrayat, Magnus Lund, Torben R. Christensen, Mikkel P. Tamstorf, Darren Slevin, Gustaf Hugelius, Anthony A. Bloom, and Mathew Williams
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 233–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-233-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-233-2019, 2019
Short summary
Exchange of CO2 in Arctic tundra: impacts of meteorological variations and biological disturbance
Efrén López-Blanco, Magnus Lund, Mathew Williams, Mikkel P. Tamstorf, Andreas Westergaard-Nielsen, Jean-François Exbrayat, Birger U. Hansen, and Torben R. Christensen
Biogeosciences, 14, 4467–4483, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4467-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4467-2017, 2017
Short summary
Net ecosystem carbon exchange of a dry temperate eucalypt forest
Nina Hinko-Najera, Peter Isaac, Jason Beringer, Eva van Gorsel, Cacilia Ewenz, Ian McHugh, Jean-François Exbrayat, Stephen J. Livesley, and Stefan K. Arndt
Biogeosciences, 14, 3781–3800, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3781-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3781-2017, 2017
Short summary
Global evaluation of gross primary productivity in the JULES land surface model v3.4.1
Darren Slevin, Simon F. B. Tett, Jean-François Exbrayat, A. Anthony Bloom, and Mathew Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2651–2670, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2651-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2651-2017, 2017

Related subject area

Earth system interactions with the biosphere: biogeochemical cycles
How does the phytoplankton–light feedback affect the marine N2O inventory?
Sarah Berthet, Julien Jouanno, Roland Séférian, Marion Gehlen, and William Llovel
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 399–412, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-399-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-399-2023, 2023
Short summary
Time-varying changes and uncertainties in the CMIP6 ocean carbon sink from global to local scale
Parsa Gooya, Neil C. Swart, and Roberta C. Hamme
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 383–398, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-383-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Interannual global carbon cycle variations linked to atmospheric circulation variability
Na Li, Sebastian Sippel, Alexander J. Winkler, Miguel D. Mahecha, Markus Reichstein, and Ana Bastos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1505–1533, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1505-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1505-2022, 2022
Short summary
Contrasting projections of the ENSO-driven CO2 flux variability in the equatorial Pacific under high-warming scenario
Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Laurent Bopp, Jim R. Christian, Tatiana Ilyina, John P. Krasting, Roland Séférian, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Michio Watanabe, Andrew Yool, and Jerry Tjiputra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1097–1118, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1097-2022, 2022
Short summary
Divergent historical GPP trends among state-of-the-art multi-model simulations and satellite-based products
Ruqi Yang, Jun Wang, Ning Zeng, Stephen Sitch, Wenhan Tang, Matthew Joseph McGrath, Qixiang Cai, Di Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Hanqin Tian, Atul K. Jain, and Pengfei Han
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 833–849, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-833-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-833-2022, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Ahlström, A., Schurgers, G., Arneth, A., and Smith, B.: Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 044008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044008, 2012. 
Arora, V. K., Boer, G. J., Friedlingstein, P., Eby, M., Jones, C. D., Christian, J. R., Bonan, G., Bopp, L., Brovkin, V., Cadule, P., Hajima, T., Ilyina, T., Lindsay, K., Tjiputra, J. F., and Wu, T.: Carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks in CMIP5 earth system models, J. Climate, 26, 5289–5314, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00494.1, 2013. 
Baldocchi, D., Falge, E., Gu, L. H., Olson, R., Hollinger, D., Running, S., Anthoni, P., Bernhofer, C., Davis, K., Evans, R., Fuentes, J., Goldstein, A., Katul, G., Law, B., Lee, X. H., Malhi, Y., Meyers, T., Munger, W., Oechel, W., U, Paw, K. T., Pilegaard, K., Schmid, H. P., Valentini, R., Verma, S., Vesala, T., Wilson, K., and Wofsy, S.: FLUXNET: a new tool to study the temporal and spatial variability of ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide, water vapor, and energy flux densities, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 82, 2415–2434, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<2415:fantts>2.3.co;2, 2001. 
Bastos, A., Running, S. W., Gouveia, C., and Trigo, R. M.: The global NPP dependence on ENSO: La Niña and the extraordinary year of 2011, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo., 118, 1247–1255, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrg.20100, 2013. 
Download
Short summary
We use global observations of current terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) to constrain the uncertainty in large ensemble 21st century projections of NPP under a "business as usual" scenario using a skill-based multi-model averaging technique. Our results show that this procedure helps greatly reduce the uncertainty in global projections of NPP. We also identify regions where uncertainties in models and observations remain too large to confidently conclude a sign of the change of NPP.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint