Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties

Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, A. Anthony; Falloon, Pete; Ito, Akihiko; Smallman, T. Luke; Williams, Mathew

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018

Articles | Volume 9, issue 1

Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 153–165, 2018

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 153–165, 2018

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 9, issue 1

Research article 21 Feb 2018

Research article | 21 Feb 2018

Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties

Jean-François Exbrayat et al.

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Total article views: 2,316 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

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Views and downloads (calculated since 19 Sep 2017)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Sep 2017	107	23	3	133
Oct 2017	108	13	1	122
Nov 2017	32	9	1	42
Dec 2017	14	7	0	21
Jan 2018	28	9	4	41
Feb 2018	130	36	12	178
Mar 2018	183	47	4	234
Apr 2018	82	19	3	104
May 2018	28	15	0	43
Jun 2018	43	14	0	57
Jul 2018	30	9	0	39
Aug 2018	28	14	0	42
Sep 2018	32	12	1	45
Oct 2018	38	16	2	56
Nov 2018	42	18	1	61
Dec 2018	26	12	1	39
Jan 2019	21	25	1	47
Feb 2019	22	10	0	32
Mar 2019	19	12	0	31
Apr 2019	18	4	0	22
May 2019	15	14	1	30
Jun 2019	33	14	1	48
Jul 2019	20	13	0	33
Aug 2019	27	16	1	44
Sep 2019	12	9	0	21
Oct 2019	32	17	1	50
Nov 2019	12	11	0	23
Dec 2019	16	7	1	24
Jan 2020	42	17	5	64
Feb 2020	37	6	0	43
Mar 2020	46	19	0	65
Apr 2020	26	10	1	37
May 2020	16	7	1	24
Jun 2020	46	36	2	84
Jul 2020	38	40	11	89
Aug 2020	12	5	0	17
Sep 2020	18	6	0	24
Oct 2020	10	10	2	22
Nov 2020	17	9	0	26
Dec 2020	24	13	0	37
Jan 2021	26	14	0	40
Feb 2021	9	2	0	11
Mar 2021	25	9	2	36
Apr 2021	17	7	1	25
May 2021	5	5	0	10

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 19 Sep 2017)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Sep 2017	107	23	3	133
Oct 2017	108	13	1	122
Nov 2017	32	9	1	42
Dec 2017	14	7	0	21
Jan 2018	28	9	4	41
Feb 2018	130	36	12	178
Mar 2018	183	47	4	234
Apr 2018	82	19	3	104
May 2018	28	15	0	43
Jun 2018	43	14	0	57
Jul 2018	30	9	0	39
Aug 2018	28	14	0	42
Sep 2018	32	12	1	45
Oct 2018	38	16	2	56
Nov 2018	42	18	1	61
Dec 2018	26	12	1	39
Jan 2019	21	25	1	47
Feb 2019	22	10	0	32
Mar 2019	19	12	0	31
Apr 2019	18	4	0	22
May 2019	15	14	1	30
Jun 2019	33	14	1	48
Jul 2019	20	13	0	33
Aug 2019	27	16	1	44
Sep 2019	12	9	0	21
Oct 2019	32	17	1	50
Nov 2019	12	11	0	23
Dec 2019	16	7	1	24
Jan 2020	42	17	5	64
Feb 2020	37	6	0	43
Mar 2020	46	19	0	65
Apr 2020	26	10	1	37
May 2020	16	7	1	24
Jun 2020	46	36	2	84
Jul 2020	38	40	11	89
Aug 2020	12	5	0	17
Sep 2020	18	6	0	24
Oct 2020	10	10	2	22
Nov 2020	17	9	0	26
Dec 2020	24	13	0	37
Jan 2021	26	14	0	40
Feb 2021	9	2	0	11
Mar 2021	25	9	2	36
Apr 2021	17	7	1	25
May 2021	5	5	0	10

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Total article views: 2,260 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 2,235 with geography defined and 25 with unknown origin.

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1

1

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Short summary

We use global observations of current terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) to constrain the uncertainty in large ensemble 21st century projections of NPP under a "business as usual" scenario using a skill-based multi-model averaging technique. Our results show that this procedure helps greatly reduce the uncertainty in global projections of NPP. We also identify regions where uncertainties in models and observations remain too large to confidently conclude a sign of the change of NPP.

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