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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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We use global observations of current terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) to constrain the uncertainty in large ensemble 21st century projections of NPP under a "business as usual" scenario using a skill-based multi-model averaging technique. Our results show that this procedure helps greatly reduce the uncertainty in global projections of NPP. We also identify regions where uncertainties in models and observations remain too large to confidently conclude a sign of the change of NPP.
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ESD | Articles | Volume 9, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 153–165, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 153–165, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018

Research article 21 Feb 2018

Research article | 21 Feb 2018

Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties

Jean-François Exbrayat et al.

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Latest update: 17 Jan 2021
Publications Copernicus
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Short summary
We use global observations of current terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) to constrain the uncertainty in large ensemble 21st century projections of NPP under a "business as usual" scenario using a skill-based multi-model averaging technique. Our results show that this procedure helps greatly reduce the uncertainty in global projections of NPP. We also identify regions where uncertainties in models and observations remain too large to confidently conclude a sign of the change of NPP.
Citation
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Final-revised paper
Preprint