Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 9, issue 1
Articles | Volume 9, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 9, issue 1
Research article
 | 
21 Feb 2018
Research article |  | 21 Feb 2018

Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties

Jean-François Exbrayat, A. Anthony Bloom, Pete Falloon, Akihiko Ito, T. Luke Smallman, and Mathew Williams

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Short summary
We use global observations of current terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) to constrain the uncertainty in large ensemble 21st century projections of NPP under a "business as usual" scenario using a skill-based multi-model averaging technique. Our results show that this procedure helps greatly reduce the uncertainty in global projections of NPP. We also identify regions where uncertainties in models and observations remain too large to confidently conclude a sign of the change of NPP.
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