Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties

Exbrayat, Jean-François; Bloom, A. Anthony; Falloon, Pete; Ito, Akihiko; Smallman, T. Luke; Williams, Mathew

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018

Articles | Volume 9, issue 1

Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 153–165, 2018

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 153–165, 2018

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 9, issue 1

Research article 21 Feb 2018

Research article | 21 Feb 2018

Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties

Jean-François Exbrayat et al.

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Final revised paper (published on 21 Feb 2018)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 19 Sep 2017)
Supplement to the preprint

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Review of Exbrayat et al.', Anonymous Referee #1, 17 Oct 2017
- AC1: 'Reply to Reviewer 1, including new figures', Jean-François Exbrayat, 03 Nov 2017
RC2: 'Comments on “Reliability Ensemble Averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Jan 2018
- AC2: 'Reply to Reviewer 2', Jean-François Exbrayat, 12 Jan 2018

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Publish as is (16 Jan 2018) by Somnath Baidya Roy

AR by Jean-François Exbrayat on behalf of the Authors (16 Jan 2018) Author's response

Short summary

We use global observations of current terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) to constrain the uncertainty in large ensemble 21st century projections of NPP under a "business as usual" scenario using a skill-based multi-model averaging technique. Our results show that this procedure helps greatly reduce the uncertainty in global projections of NPP. We also identify regions where uncertainties in models and observations remain too large to confidently conclude a sign of the change of NPP.