Articles | Volume 9, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-153-2018
Research article
 | 
21 Feb 2018
Research article |  | 21 Feb 2018

Reliability ensemble averaging of 21st century projections of terrestrial net primary productivity reduces global and regional uncertainties

Jean-François Exbrayat, A. Anthony Bloom, Pete Falloon, Akihiko Ito, T. Luke Smallman, and Mathew Williams

Download

Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Publish as is (16 Jan 2018) by Somnath Baidya Roy
AR by Jean-François Exbrayat on behalf of the Authors (16 Jan 2018)  Author's response 
Download
Short summary
We use global observations of current terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) to constrain the uncertainty in large ensemble 21st century projections of NPP under a "business as usual" scenario using a skill-based multi-model averaging technique. Our results show that this procedure helps greatly reduce the uncertainty in global projections of NPP. We also identify regions where uncertainties in models and observations remain too large to confidently conclude a sign of the change of NPP.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint