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ESD | Articles | Volume 9, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1243–1260, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1243–1260, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 06 Nov 2018

Research article | 06 Nov 2018

Cascading transitions in the climate system

Mark M. Dekker et al.

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Aleina, F. C., Baudena, M., D'Andrea, F., and Provenzale, A.: Multiple equilibria on planet Dune: Climate-vegetation dynamics on a sandy planet, Tellus B, 65, 17662, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v65i0.17662, 2013. a
Ashwin, P., Wieczorek, S., Vitolo, R., and Cox, P.: Tipping points in open systems: Bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 370, 1166–1184, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0306, 2012. a
Ashwin, P., Creaser, J., and Tsaneva-Atanasova, K.: Fast and slow domino effects in transient network dynamics, Phys. Rev. E, 96, 052309, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.96.052309, 2017. a
Barriopedro, D., García-Herrera, R., Lupo, A. R., and Hernández, E.: A Climatology of Northern Hemisphere Blocking, J. Climate, 19, 1042–1063, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3678.1, 2006. a
Bathiany, S., van der Bolt, B., Williamson, M. S., Lenton, T. M., Scheffer, M., van Nes, E. H., and Notz, D.: Statistical indicators of Arctic sea-ice stability – prospects and limitations, The Cryosphere, 10, 1631–1645, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1631-2016, 2016. a, b
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We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one system affects the background conditions of another system. Using bifurcation theory, various types of these events are considered and early warning indicators are suggested. An illustration of such an event is found in a conceptual model, coupling the North Atlantic Ocean with the equatorial Pacific. This demonstrates the possibility of events such as this in nature.
We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring...
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