Articles | Volume 9, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
06 Nov 2018
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 06 Nov 2018
| 06 Nov 2018
Cascading transitions in the climate system
Mark M. Dekker
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Department of
Physics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Department of Information and Computing Science, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Anna S. von der Heydt
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Department of
Physics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Henk A. Dijkstra
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Department of
Physics, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
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42 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation A. Klose et al. 10.5194/esd-15-635-2024
- Modelling nonlinear dynamics of interacting tipping elements on complex networks: the PyCascades package N. Wunderling et al. 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00155-4
- Climate tipping points: A personal view M. McIntyre 10.1063/PT.3.5198
- Cascading regime shifts within and across scales J. Rocha et al. 10.1126/science.aat7850
- Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate A. Klose et al. 10.1098/rsos.200599
- Climate response and sensitivity: time scales and late tipping points R. Bastiaansen et al. 10.1098/rspa.2022.0483
- A next step in disruption management: combining operations research and complexity science M. Dekker et al. 10.1007/s12469-021-00261-5
- Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course R. van Westen et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
- What do we mean, ‘tipping cascade’? A. Klose et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac3955
- Ghost Channels and Ghost Cycles Guiding Long Transients in Dynamical Systems D. Koch et al. 10.1103/PhysRevLett.133.047202
- Ten new insights in climate science 2021: a horizon scan M. Martin et al. 10.1017/sus.2021.25
- AMOC Stabilization Under the Interaction With Tipping Polar Ice Sheets S. Sinet et al. 10.1029/2022GL100305
- Investigating ENSO and its teleconnections under climate change in an ensemble view – a new perspective T. Haszpra et al. 10.5194/esd-11-267-2020
- Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements S. Wang et al. 10.1029/2021RG000757
- Operationalising positive tipping points towards global sustainability T. Lenton et al. 10.1017/sus.2021.30
- Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system V. Brovkin et al. 10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5
- Signatures Consistent with Multifrequency Tipping in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation A. Keane et al. 10.1103/PhysRevLett.125.228701
- Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks T. Möller et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0
- Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities M. Turner et al. 10.1098/rstb.2019.0105
- Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point N. Boers & M. Rypdal 10.1073/pnas.2024192118
- AMOC stability amid tipping ice sheets: the crucial role of rate and noise S. Sinet et al. 10.5194/esd-15-859-2024
- Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation J. Lohmann et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adi4253
- Extreme Sensitivity and Climate Tipping Points P. Ashwin & A. von der Heydt 10.1007/s10955-019-02425-x
- Basin stability and limit cycles in a conceptual model for climate tipping cascades N. Wunderling et al. 10.1088/1367-2630/abc98a
- Cascading dominates large-scale disruptions in transport over complex networks M. Dekker et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0246077
- Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point J. Lohmann et al. 10.5194/esd-12-819-2021
- Drivers and Reversibility of Abrupt Ocean State Transitions in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica J. Caillet et al. 10.1029/2022JC018929
- How motifs condition critical thresholds for tipping cascades in complex networks: Linking micro- to macro-scales N. Wunderling et al. 10.1063/1.5142827
- Tipping positive change T. Lenton 10.1098/rstb.2019.0123
- Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review N. Wunderling et al. 10.5194/esd-15-41-2024
- Response of atmospheric pCO$$_2$$ to a strong AMOC weakening under low and high emission scenarios A. Boot et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07295-y
- Loss of Earth system resilience during early Eocene transient global warming events S. Setty et al. 10.1126/sciadv.ade5466
- Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming N. Wunderling et al. 10.5194/esd-12-601-2021
- Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model N. Wunderling et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01545-9
- Using machine learning to anticipate tipping points and extrapolate to post-tipping dynamics of non-stationary dynamical systems D. Patel & E. Ott 10.1063/5.0131787
- Investigating ocean circulation dynamics through data assimilation: A mathematical study using the Stommel box model with rapid oscillatory forcings N. Smith et al. 10.1063/5.0215236
- Overshooting tipping point thresholds in a changing climate P. Ritchie et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-03263-2
- Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation P. Friedlingstein et al. 10.3389/fclim.2024.1480208
- Polar ice sheets are decisive contributors to uncertainty in climate tipping projections J. Rosser et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01799-5
- Connected climate tipping elements V. Livina 10.1038/s41558-022-01573-5
- Climate Uncertainties: A Personal View M. McIntyre 10.3390/meteorology1020011
- Dynamics of tipping cascades on complex networks J. Krönke et al. 10.1103/PhysRevE.101.042311
42 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation A. Klose et al. 10.5194/esd-15-635-2024
- Modelling nonlinear dynamics of interacting tipping elements on complex networks: the PyCascades package N. Wunderling et al. 10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00155-4
- Climate tipping points: A personal view M. McIntyre 10.1063/PT.3.5198
- Cascading regime shifts within and across scales J. Rocha et al. 10.1126/science.aat7850
- Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate A. Klose et al. 10.1098/rsos.200599
- Climate response and sensitivity: time scales and late tipping points R. Bastiaansen et al. 10.1098/rspa.2022.0483
- A next step in disruption management: combining operations research and complexity science M. Dekker et al. 10.1007/s12469-021-00261-5
- Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course R. van Westen et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
- What do we mean, ‘tipping cascade’? A. Klose et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac3955
- Ghost Channels and Ghost Cycles Guiding Long Transients in Dynamical Systems D. Koch et al. 10.1103/PhysRevLett.133.047202
- Ten new insights in climate science 2021: a horizon scan M. Martin et al. 10.1017/sus.2021.25
- AMOC Stabilization Under the Interaction With Tipping Polar Ice Sheets S. Sinet et al. 10.1029/2022GL100305
- Investigating ENSO and its teleconnections under climate change in an ensemble view – a new perspective T. Haszpra et al. 10.5194/esd-11-267-2020
- Mechanisms and Impacts of Earth System Tipping Elements S. Wang et al. 10.1029/2021RG000757
- Operationalising positive tipping points towards global sustainability T. Lenton et al. 10.1017/sus.2021.30
- Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system V. Brovkin et al. 10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5
- Signatures Consistent with Multifrequency Tipping in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation A. Keane et al. 10.1103/PhysRevLett.125.228701
- Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks T. Möller et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0
- Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities M. Turner et al. 10.1098/rstb.2019.0105
- Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point N. Boers & M. Rypdal 10.1073/pnas.2024192118
- AMOC stability amid tipping ice sheets: the crucial role of rate and noise S. Sinet et al. 10.5194/esd-15-859-2024
- Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation J. Lohmann et al. 10.1126/sciadv.adi4253
- Extreme Sensitivity and Climate Tipping Points P. Ashwin & A. von der Heydt 10.1007/s10955-019-02425-x
- Basin stability and limit cycles in a conceptual model for climate tipping cascades N. Wunderling et al. 10.1088/1367-2630/abc98a
- Cascading dominates large-scale disruptions in transport over complex networks M. Dekker et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0246077
- Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point J. Lohmann et al. 10.5194/esd-12-819-2021
- Drivers and Reversibility of Abrupt Ocean State Transitions in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica J. Caillet et al. 10.1029/2022JC018929
- How motifs condition critical thresholds for tipping cascades in complex networks: Linking micro- to macro-scales N. Wunderling et al. 10.1063/1.5142827
- Tipping positive change T. Lenton 10.1098/rstb.2019.0123
- Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review N. Wunderling et al. 10.5194/esd-15-41-2024
- Response of atmospheric pCO$$_2$$ to a strong AMOC weakening under low and high emission scenarios A. Boot et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07295-y
- Loss of Earth system resilience during early Eocene transient global warming events S. Setty et al. 10.1126/sciadv.ade5466
- Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming N. Wunderling et al. 10.5194/esd-12-601-2021
- Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tipping cascades in a network model N. Wunderling et al. 10.1038/s41558-022-01545-9
- Using machine learning to anticipate tipping points and extrapolate to post-tipping dynamics of non-stationary dynamical systems D. Patel & E. Ott 10.1063/5.0131787
- Investigating ocean circulation dynamics through data assimilation: A mathematical study using the Stommel box model with rapid oscillatory forcings N. Smith et al. 10.1063/5.0215236
- Overshooting tipping point thresholds in a changing climate P. Ritchie et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-03263-2
- Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation P. Friedlingstein et al. 10.3389/fclim.2024.1480208
- Polar ice sheets are decisive contributors to uncertainty in climate tipping projections J. Rosser et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01799-5
- Connected climate tipping elements V. Livina 10.1038/s41558-022-01573-5
- Climate Uncertainties: A Personal View M. McIntyre 10.3390/meteorology1020011
- Dynamics of tipping cascades on complex networks J. Krönke et al. 10.1103/PhysRevE.101.042311
Latest update: 14 Dec 2024
Short summary
We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one system affects the background conditions of another system. Using bifurcation theory, various types of these events are considered and early warning indicators are suggested. An illustration of such an event is found in a conceptual model, coupling the North Atlantic Ocean with the equatorial Pacific. This demonstrates the possibility of events such as this in nature.
We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring...
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