Articles | Volume 13, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-879-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-879-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Inarticulate past: similarity properties of the ice–climate system and their implications for paleo-record attribution
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Gen5 Group, LLC, Newton, MA, USA
Earth and Life Institute, UCLouvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
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Are phenomenological dynamical paleoclimate models physically similar to Nature? We demonstrated that though they may be very accurate in reproducing empirical time series, this is not sufficient to claim physical similarity with Nature until similarity parameters are considered. We suggest that the diagnostics of physical similarity should become a standard procedure before a phenomenological model can be utilized for interpretations of historical records or future predictions.
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Phenomenological models may be impressive in reproducing empirical time series but this is not sufficient to claim physical similarity with nature until comparison of similarity parameters is performed. We illustrated such a process of diagnostics of physical similarity by comparing a phenomenological dynamical paleoclimate model with a more physically explicit dynamical model.
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The cause of the MPT- period shift is generally thought to be a change within the Earth System, since the orbital insolation forcing does not change its pattern through the event. Here we propose that the MPT could be a dominant-period relaxation process that is strongly dependent on the initial state of the system and this sensitivity to the initial state is enabled by the orbital forcing.
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It was recently suggested that global warming can be explained by the non-anthropogenic factor of seismic activity. If that is the case, it would have profound implications. We have assessed the validity of the claim by using a statistical technique that evaluates the existence of causal connections between variables, finding no evidence for any causal relationship between seismic activity and global warming.
Mikhail Verbitsky and Dmitry Volobuev
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1255, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The dynamics of ice sheets is defined by the advection of mass and temperature. Reduced mass influx makes advection timescale to become longer, which is equivalent to a longer system’s memory of its initial conditions. In this case the Milankovitch theory becomes an initial value problem. The dependence of the similarity parameter that governs initial-values sensitivity on poorly defined mass balance makes ice ages to be hardly predictable and disambiguation of paleo-records to be challenging.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Clim. Past, 19, 1793–1803, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1793-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1793-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Are phenomenological dynamical paleoclimate models physically similar to Nature? We demonstrated that though they may be very accurate in reproducing empirical time series, this is not sufficient to claim physical similarity with Nature until similarity parameters are considered. We suggest that the diagnostics of physical similarity should become a standard procedure before a phenomenological model can be utilized for interpretations of historical records or future predictions.
Mikhail Verbitsky
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-758, 2022
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Phenomenological models may be impressive in reproducing empirical time series but this is not sufficient to claim physical similarity with nature until comparison of similarity parameters is performed. We illustrated such a process of diagnostics of physical similarity by comparing a phenomenological dynamical paleoclimate model with a more physically explicit dynamical model.
Mikhail Verbitsky and Michael Mann
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-87, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-87, 2021
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we highlight a component of global warming variability, a scaling law that is based purely on fundamental physical properties of the climate system.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 63–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate here that a single physical phenomenon, specifically, a naturally changing balance between intensities of temperature advection and diffusion in the viscous ice media, may influence the entire spectrum of the Pleistocene variability from orbital to millennial timescales.
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Short summary
Reconstruction and explanation of past climate evolution using proxy records is the essence of paleoclimatology. In this study, we use dimensional analysis of a dynamical model on orbital timescales to recognize theoretical limits of such forensic inquiries. Specifically, we demonstrate that major past events could have been produced by physically dissimilar processes making the task of paleo-record attribution to a particular phenomenon fundamentally difficult if not impossible.
Reconstruction and explanation of past climate evolution using proxy records is the essence of...
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