Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-87
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-87
 
03 Nov 2021
03 Nov 2021
Status: this preprint was under review for the journal ESD but the revision was not accepted.

ESD Ideas: A Global Warming Scaling Law

Mikhail Verbitsky1,2 and Michael Mann3 Mikhail Verbitsky and Michael Mann
  • 1Gen5 Group, LLC, Newton, MA, USA
  • 2UCLouvain, Earth and Life Institute, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
  • 3The Pennsylvania State University, Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, University Park, PA, USA

Abstract. In this study, we highlight a component of global warming variability, a scaling law that is based purely on fundamental physical properties of the climate system. We suggest that three similarity parameters define the system response to external forcing, and an argument of physical similarity with observed climate responses in the past can be made when all three parameters are identical for the current and historical climates. We determined that the scaling law of global warming is the (𝜆 + 1 + m) – power of time, where 𝜆 is prescribed by external forcing and m is defined by climate system internal dynamics. When the climate system develops in the direction of intensified positive feedbacks, the power m changes from m = −1 (negative feedbacks dominate) to m ≥ 1 (positive feedbacks dominate). We also establish that a “hothouse” climate with dominant positive feedbacks will be preceded by a climate having a property of incomplete similarity in feedbacks similarity parameters. It implies that the same future scenario may be produced by climate feedbacks of different magnitudes as long as their positive-to-negative ratio is the same.

Mikhail Verbitsky and Michael Mann

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on esd-2021-87', Richard Rosen, 03 Nov 2021
    • AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Mikhail Verbitsky, 03 Nov 2021
      • CC2: 'Reply on AC1', Richard Rosen, 03 Nov 2021
        • AC2: 'Reply on CC2', Mikhail Verbitsky, 12 Nov 2021
          • CC3: 'Reply on AC2', Richard Rosen, 12 Nov 2021
            • CC4: 'Reply on CC3', Richard Rosen, 12 Nov 2021
              • EC1: 'Handling Editor's Reply on CC4', Gabriele Messori, 12 Nov 2021
                • CC5: 'Reply on EC1', Richard Rosen, 12 Nov 2021
  • RC1: 'Comment on esd-2021-87', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Dec 2021
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Mikhail Verbitsky, 07 Dec 2021
    • AC4: 'Additional Reply on RC1', Mikhail Verbitsky, 09 Dec 2021
    • AC5: 'Reply on RC1-suggested changes to the paper', Mikhail Verbitsky, 21 Dec 2021
      • CC6: 'Reply on AC5', Richard Rosen, 22 Dec 2021
        • AC6: 'Reply on CC6', Mikhail Verbitsky, 23 Dec 2021
          • CC7: 'Reply on AC6', Richard Rosen, 23 Dec 2021
            • AC7: 'Reply on CC7', Mikhail Verbitsky, 23 Dec 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on esd-2021-87', Anonymous Referee #2, 17 Jan 2022
    • AC8: 'Reply on RC2', Mikhail Verbitsky, 17 Jan 2022
    • AC9: 'Reply on RC2- pdf version', Mikhail Verbitsky, 17 Jan 2022
  • RC3: 'Comment on esd-2021-87', Anonymous Referee #3, 25 Mar 2022
    • AC10: 'Reply on RC3', Mikhail Verbitsky, 26 Mar 2022

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on esd-2021-87', Richard Rosen, 03 Nov 2021
    • AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Mikhail Verbitsky, 03 Nov 2021
      • CC2: 'Reply on AC1', Richard Rosen, 03 Nov 2021
        • AC2: 'Reply on CC2', Mikhail Verbitsky, 12 Nov 2021
          • CC3: 'Reply on AC2', Richard Rosen, 12 Nov 2021
            • CC4: 'Reply on CC3', Richard Rosen, 12 Nov 2021
              • EC1: 'Handling Editor's Reply on CC4', Gabriele Messori, 12 Nov 2021
                • CC5: 'Reply on EC1', Richard Rosen, 12 Nov 2021
  • RC1: 'Comment on esd-2021-87', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Dec 2021
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Mikhail Verbitsky, 07 Dec 2021
    • AC4: 'Additional Reply on RC1', Mikhail Verbitsky, 09 Dec 2021
    • AC5: 'Reply on RC1-suggested changes to the paper', Mikhail Verbitsky, 21 Dec 2021
      • CC6: 'Reply on AC5', Richard Rosen, 22 Dec 2021
        • AC6: 'Reply on CC6', Mikhail Verbitsky, 23 Dec 2021
          • CC7: 'Reply on AC6', Richard Rosen, 23 Dec 2021
            • AC7: 'Reply on CC7', Mikhail Verbitsky, 23 Dec 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on esd-2021-87', Anonymous Referee #2, 17 Jan 2022
    • AC8: 'Reply on RC2', Mikhail Verbitsky, 17 Jan 2022
    • AC9: 'Reply on RC2- pdf version', Mikhail Verbitsky, 17 Jan 2022
  • RC3: 'Comment on esd-2021-87', Anonymous Referee #3, 25 Mar 2022
    • AC10: 'Reply on RC3', Mikhail Verbitsky, 26 Mar 2022

Mikhail Verbitsky and Michael Mann

Mikhail Verbitsky and Michael Mann

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Short summary
In this study, we highlight a component of global warming variability, a scaling law that is based purely on fundamental physical properties of the climate system.
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