Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-87
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-87

  03 Nov 2021

03 Nov 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESD.

ESD Ideas: A Global Warming Scaling Law

Mikhail Verbitsky1,2 and Michael Mann3 Mikhail Verbitsky and Michael Mann
  • 1Gen5 Group, LLC, Newton, MA, USA
  • 2UCLouvain, Earth and Life Institute, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
  • 3The Pennsylvania State University, Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, University Park, PA, USA

Abstract. In this study, we highlight a component of global warming variability, a scaling law that is based purely on fundamental physical properties of the climate system. We suggest that three similarity parameters define the system response to external forcing, and an argument of physical similarity with observed climate responses in the past can be made when all three parameters are identical for the current and historical climates. We determined that the scaling law of global warming is the (𝜆 + 1 + m) – power of time, where 𝜆 is prescribed by external forcing and m is defined by climate system internal dynamics. When the climate system develops in the direction of intensified positive feedbacks, the power m changes from m = −1 (negative feedbacks dominate) to m ≥ 1 (positive feedbacks dominate). We also establish that a “hothouse” climate with dominant positive feedbacks will be preceded by a climate having a property of incomplete similarity in feedbacks similarity parameters. It implies that the same future scenario may be produced by climate feedbacks of different magnitudes as long as their positive-to-negative ratio is the same.

Mikhail Verbitsky and Michael Mann

Status: open (until 19 Dec 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on esd-2021-87', Richard Rosen, 03 Nov 2021 reply
    • AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Mikhail Verbitsky, 03 Nov 2021 reply
      • CC2: 'Reply on AC1', Richard Rosen, 03 Nov 2021 reply
        • AC2: 'Reply on CC2', Mikhail Verbitsky, 12 Nov 2021 reply
          • CC3: 'Reply on AC2', Richard Rosen, 12 Nov 2021 reply
            • CC4: 'Reply on CC3', Richard Rosen, 12 Nov 2021 reply
              • EC1: 'Handling Editor's Reply on CC4', Gabriele Messori, 12 Nov 2021 reply
                • CC5: 'Reply on EC1', Richard Rosen, 12 Nov 2021 reply

Mikhail Verbitsky and Michael Mann

Mikhail Verbitsky and Michael Mann

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In this study, we highlight a component of global warming variability, a scaling law that is based purely on fundamental physical properties of the climate system.
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