Articles | Volume 12, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-997-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-997-2021
Research article
 | 
21 Sep 2021
Research article |  | 21 Sep 2021

Modelling forest ruin due to climate hazards

Pascal Yiou and Nicolas Viovy

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Cited articles

Adams, H. D., Guardiola-Claramonte, M., Barron-Gafford, G. A., Villegas, J. C., Breshears, D. D., Zou, C. B., Troch, P. A., and Huxman, T. E.: Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 7063–7066, 2009. a, b
Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D. D., and Hogg, E. T.: A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests, Forest Ecol. Manag., 259, 660–684, 2010. a, b
Anderegg, W. R., Kane, J. M., and Anderegg, L. D.: Consequences of widespread tree mortality triggered by drought and temperature stress, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 30–36, 2013. a
Anderegg, W. R., Flint, A., Huang, C.-y., Flint, L., Berry, J. A., Davis, F. W., Sperry, J. S., and Field, C. B.: Tree mortality predicted from drought-induced vascular damage, Nat. Geosci., 8, 367–371, 2015a. a
Anderegg, W. R., Schwalm, C., Biondi, F., Camarero, J. J., Koch, G., Litvak, M., Ogle, K., Shaw, J. D., Shevliakova, E., and Williams, A. P.: Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models, Science, 349, 528–532, 2015b. a, b
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Short summary
This paper presents a model of tree ruin as a response to drought hazards. This model is inspired by a standard model of ruin in the insurance industry. We illustrate how ruin can occur in present-day conditions and the sensitivity of ruin and time to ruin to hazard statistical properties. We also show how tree strategies to cope with hazards can affect their long-term reserves and the probability of ruin.
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