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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 8, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 91–111, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 91–111, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 13 Feb 2017

Research article | 13 Feb 2017

Uncertainties in the land-use flux resulting from land-use change reconstructions and gross land transitions

Anita D. Bayer et al.

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Ahlström, A., Schurgers, G., Arneth, A., and Smith, B.: Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 044008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044008, 2012.
Arora, V. K. and Boer, G. J.: Uncertainties in the 20th century carbon budget associated with land use change, Glob. Chang. Biol., 16, 3327–3348, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02202.x, 2010.
Aschbacher, J. and Milagro-Pérez, M. P.: The European Earth monitoring (GMES) programme: Status and perspectives, Remote Sens. Environ., 120, 3–8, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2011.08.028, 2012.
Baccini, A., Goetz, S. J., Walker, W. S., Laporte, N. T., Sun, M., Sulla-Menashe, D., Hackler, J., Beck, P. S. A., Dubayah, R., Friedl, M. A., Samanta, S., and Houghton, R. A.: Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps, Nat. Clim. Chang., 2, 182–185, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1354, 2012.
Bugmann, H.: A review of forest gap models, Clim. Change, 51, 259–305, 2001.
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We evaluate the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on carbon pools and fluxes using a dynamic global vegetation model. Different historical reconstructions yielded an uncertainty of ca. ±30 % in the mean annual land use emission over the last decades. Accounting for the parallel expansion and abandonment of croplands on a sub-grid level (tropical shifting cultivation) substantially increased the effect of land use on carbon stocks and fluxes compared to only accounting for net effects.
We evaluate the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on carbon pools and fluxes using a...
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