Articles | Volume 8, issue 1
Research article
13 Feb 2017
Research article |  | 13 Feb 2017

Uncertainties in the land-use flux resulting from land-use change reconstructions and gross land transitions

Anita D. Bayer, Mats Lindeskog, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Peter M. Anthoni, Richard Fuchs, and Almut Arneth

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Cited articles

Ahlström, A., Schurgers, G., Arneth, A., and Smith, B.: Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 044008,, 2012.
Arora, V. K. and Boer, G. J.: Uncertainties in the 20th century carbon budget associated with land use change, Glob. Chang. Biol., 16, 3327–3348,, 2010.
Aschbacher, J. and Milagro-Pérez, M. P.: The European Earth monitoring (GMES) programme: Status and perspectives, Remote Sens. Environ., 120, 3–8,, 2012.
Baccini, A., Goetz, S. J., Walker, W. S., Laporte, N. T., Sun, M., Sulla-Menashe, D., Hackler, J., Beck, P. S. A., Dubayah, R., Friedl, M. A., Samanta, S., and Houghton, R. A.: Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps, Nat. Clim. Chang., 2, 182–185,, 2012.
Bugmann, H.: A review of forest gap models, Clim. Change, 51, 259–305, 2001.
Short summary
We evaluate the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on carbon pools and fluxes using a dynamic global vegetation model. Different historical reconstructions yielded an uncertainty of ca. ±30 % in the mean annual land use emission over the last decades. Accounting for the parallel expansion and abandonment of croplands on a sub-grid level (tropical shifting cultivation) substantially increased the effect of land use on carbon stocks and fluxes compared to only accounting for net effects.
Final-revised paper