Uncertainties in the land-use flux resulting from land-use change reconstructions and gross land transitions

Bayer, Anita D.; Lindeskog, Mats; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Anthoni, Peter M.; Fuchs, Richard; Arneth, Almut

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017

Articles | Volume 8, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 8, issue 1

Research article

|

13 Feb 2017

Research article |

| 13 Feb 2017

Uncertainties in the land-use flux resulting from land-use change reconstructions and gross land transitions

Anita D. Bayer, Mats Lindeskog, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Peter M. Anthoni, Richard Fuchs, and Almut Arneth

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017-supplement

Data sets

HILDA v2.0 R. Fuchs, M. Herold, P. H. Verburg, J. G. P. W. Clevers, and J. Eberle http://www.wur.eu/hilda

Implications of incorporating N cycling and N limitations on primary production in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model (http://iis4.nateko.lu.se/lpj-guess/contact.html) B. Smith, D. Wårlind, A. Arneth, T. Hickler, P. Leadley, J. Siltberg, and S. Zaehle https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014

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Short summary

We evaluate the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on carbon pools and fluxes using a dynamic global vegetation model. Different historical reconstructions yielded an uncertainty of ca. ±30 % in the mean annual land use emission over the last decades. Accounting for the parallel expansion and abandonment of croplands on a sub-grid level (tropical shifting cultivation) substantially increased the effect of land use on carbon stocks and fluxes compared to only accounting for net effects.