Uncertainties in the land-use flux resulting from land-use change reconstructions and gross land transitions

Bayer, Anita D.; Lindeskog, Mats; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Anthoni, Peter M.; Fuchs, Richard; Arneth, Almut

doi:10.5194/esd-8-91-2017

Articles | Volume 8, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 8, issue 1

Research article

|

13 Feb 2017

Research article |

| 13 Feb 2017

Uncertainties in the land-use flux resulting from land-use change reconstructions and gross land transitions

Anita D. Bayer, Mats Lindeskog, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Peter M. Anthoni, Richard Fuchs, and Almut Arneth

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Views and downloads (calculated since 21 Jun 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jun 2016	81	16	1	98
Jul 2016	73	11	2	86
Aug 2016	71	9	1	81
Sep 2016	12	2	1	15
Oct 2016	9	2	1	12
Nov 2016	6	2	0	8
Dec 2016	7	2	1	10
Jan 2017	12	5	2	19
Feb 2017	69	22	12	103
Mar 2017	139	17	8	164
Apr 2017	99	16	7	122
May 2017	40	13	1	54
Jun 2017	38	13	3	54
Jul 2017	20	11	0	31
Aug 2017	13	12	1	26
Sep 2017	20	12	1	33
Oct 2017	10	4	0	14
Nov 2017	19	14	2	35
Dec 2017	17	15	1	33
Jan 2018	26	15	0	41
Feb 2018	16	12	2	30
Mar 2018	17	16	2	35
Apr 2018	17	21	2	40
May 2018	19	13	1	33
Jun 2018	15	11	0	26
Jul 2018	17	11	1	29
Aug 2018	26	12	0	38
Sep 2018	18	8	1	27
Oct 2018	22	10	1	33
Nov 2018	17	17	0	34
Dec 2018	11	13	0	24
Jan 2019	13	16	1	30
Feb 2019	11	4	0	15
Mar 2019	9	15	1	25
Apr 2019	14	7	0	21
May 2019	16	12	0	28
Jun 2019	22	9	1	32
Jul 2019	10	11	1	22
Aug 2019	24	11	0	35
Sep 2019	7	7	0	14
Oct 2019	21	9	2	32
Nov 2019	23	14	0	37
Dec 2019	24	7	1	32
Jan 2020	32	14	2	48
Feb 2020	25	6	0	31
Mar 2020	18	9	0	27
Apr 2020	9	16	2	27
May 2020	23	10	0	33
Jun 2020	37	36	2	75
Jul 2020	31	54	22	107
Aug 2020	11	9	2	22
Sep 2020	20	10	0	30
Oct 2020	25	13	3	41
Nov 2020	12	14	2	28
Dec 2020	22	20	0	42
Jan 2021	29	21	0	50
Feb 2021	46	49	0	95
Mar 2021	51	19	1	71
Apr 2021	52	23	3	78
May 2021	63	22	2	87
Jun 2021	42	28	0	70
Jul 2021	15	28	1	44
Aug 2021	42	24	1	67
Sep 2021	51	24	3	78
Oct 2021	43	50	3	96
Nov 2021	53	58	4	115
Dec 2021	56	24	1	81
Jan 2022	47	22	3	72
Feb 2022	44	25	3	72
Mar 2022	12	21	1	34
Apr 2022	26	21	3	50
May 2022	14	25	3	42
Jun 2022	37	25	5	67
Jul 2022	47	7	0	54
Aug 2022	44	32	1	77
Sep 2022	41	23	8	72
Oct 2022	15	21	4	40
Nov 2022	25	17	5	47
Dec 2022	14	24	1	39
Jan 2023	20	25	2	47
Feb 2023	23	15	2	40
Mar 2023	26	14	1	41
Apr 2023	32	9	0	41
May 2023	26	13	2	41
Jun 2023	21	13	1	35
Jul 2023	18	14	1	33
Aug 2023	18	11	1	30
Sep 2023	22	16	4	42
Oct 2023	13	17	0	30
Nov 2023	11	7	0	18
Dec 2023	27	15	0	42
Jan 2024	25	30	0	55
Feb 2024	23	12	3	38
Mar 2024	35	12	4	51
Apr 2024	38	15	9	62
May 2024	30	14	1	45
Jun 2024	35	13	3	51
Jul 2024	29	19	10	58
Aug 2024	42	11	11	64
Sep 2024	26	11	3	40
Oct 2024	26	12	3	41
Nov 2024	20	5	0	25
Dec 2024	33	18	3	54
Jan 2025	41	16	2	59
Feb 2025	43	15	0	58
Mar 2025	20	10	1	31
Apr 2025	55	15	0	70
May 2025	61	17	1	79
Jun 2025	71	11	4	86
Jul 2025	52	17	5	74
Aug 2025	54	21	2	77
Sep 2025	65	20	3	88
Oct 2025	44	25	2	71
Nov 2025	29	10	0	39

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 21 Jun 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jun 2016	81	16	1	98
Jul 2016	73	11	2	86
Aug 2016	71	9	1	81
Sep 2016	12	2	1	15
Oct 2016	9	2	1	12
Nov 2016	6	2	0	8
Dec 2016	7	2	1	10
Jan 2017	12	5	2	19
Feb 2017	69	22	12	103
Mar 2017	139	17	8	164
Apr 2017	99	16	7	122
May 2017	40	13	1	54
Jun 2017	38	13	3	54
Jul 2017	20	11	0	31
Aug 2017	13	12	1	26
Sep 2017	20	12	1	33
Oct 2017	10	4	0	14
Nov 2017	19	14	2	35
Dec 2017	17	15	1	33
Jan 2018	26	15	0	41
Feb 2018	16	12	2	30
Mar 2018	17	16	2	35
Apr 2018	17	21	2	40
May 2018	19	13	1	33
Jun 2018	15	11	0	26
Jul 2018	17	11	1	29
Aug 2018	26	12	0	38
Sep 2018	18	8	1	27
Oct 2018	22	10	1	33
Nov 2018	17	17	0	34
Dec 2018	11	13	0	24
Jan 2019	13	16	1	30
Feb 2019	11	4	0	15
Mar 2019	9	15	1	25
Apr 2019	14	7	0	21
May 2019	16	12	0	28
Jun 2019	22	9	1	32
Jul 2019	10	11	1	22
Aug 2019	24	11	0	35
Sep 2019	7	7	0	14
Oct 2019	21	9	2	32
Nov 2019	23	14	0	37
Dec 2019	24	7	1	32
Jan 2020	32	14	2	48
Feb 2020	25	6	0	31
Mar 2020	18	9	0	27
Apr 2020	9	16	2	27
May 2020	23	10	0	33
Jun 2020	37	36	2	75
Jul 2020	31	54	22	107
Aug 2020	11	9	2	22
Sep 2020	20	10	0	30
Oct 2020	25	13	3	41
Nov 2020	12	14	2	28
Dec 2020	22	20	0	42
Jan 2021	29	21	0	50
Feb 2021	46	49	0	95
Mar 2021	51	19	1	71
Apr 2021	52	23	3	78
May 2021	63	22	2	87
Jun 2021	42	28	0	70
Jul 2021	15	28	1	44
Aug 2021	42	24	1	67
Sep 2021	51	24	3	78
Oct 2021	43	50	3	96
Nov 2021	53	58	4	115
Dec 2021	56	24	1	81
Jan 2022	47	22	3	72
Feb 2022	44	25	3	72
Mar 2022	12	21	1	34
Apr 2022	26	21	3	50
May 2022	14	25	3	42
Jun 2022	37	25	5	67
Jul 2022	47	7	0	54
Aug 2022	44	32	1	77
Sep 2022	41	23	8	72
Oct 2022	15	21	4	40
Nov 2022	25	17	5	47
Dec 2022	14	24	1	39
Jan 2023	20	25	2	47
Feb 2023	23	15	2	40
Mar 2023	26	14	1	41
Apr 2023	32	9	0	41
May 2023	26	13	2	41
Jun 2023	21	13	1	35
Jul 2023	18	14	1	33
Aug 2023	18	11	1	30
Sep 2023	22	16	4	42
Oct 2023	13	17	0	30
Nov 2023	11	7	0	18
Dec 2023	27	15	0	42
Jan 2024	25	30	0	55
Feb 2024	23	12	3	38
Mar 2024	35	12	4	51
Apr 2024	38	15	9	62
May 2024	30	14	1	45
Jun 2024	35	13	3	51
Jul 2024	29	19	10	58
Aug 2024	42	11	11	64
Sep 2024	26	11	3	40
Oct 2024	26	12	3	41
Nov 2024	20	5	0	25
Dec 2024	33	18	3	54
Jan 2025	41	16	2	59
Feb 2025	43	15	0	58
Mar 2025	20	10	1	31
Apr 2025	55	15	0	70
May 2025	61	17	1	79
Jun 2025	71	11	4	86
Jul 2025	52	17	5	74
Aug 2025	54	21	2	77
Sep 2025	65	20	3	88
Oct 2025	44	25	2	71
Nov 2025	29	10	0	39

Latest update: 19 Nov 2025

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Short summary

We evaluate the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on carbon pools and fluxes using a dynamic global vegetation model. Different historical reconstructions yielded an uncertainty of ca. ±30 % in the mean annual land use emission over the last decades. Accounting for the parallel expansion and abandonment of croplands on a sub-grid level (tropical shifting cultivation) substantially increased the effect of land use on carbon stocks and fluxes compared to only accounting for net effects.