Articles | Volume 8, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Feb 2017
Research article |
| 13 Feb 2017
Uncertainties in the land-use flux resulting from land-use change reconstructions and gross land transitions
Anita D. Bayer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology KIT, Institute of Meteorology and
Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467
Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Mats Lindeskog
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund
University, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
Thomas A. M. Pugh
School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Science and Birmingham
Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology KIT, Institute of Meteorology and
Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467
Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Peter M. Anthoni
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology KIT, Institute of Meteorology and
Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467
Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Richard Fuchs
Wageningen University, Laboratory of Geoinformation Science and Remote
Sensing, 6708PB Wageningen, the Netherlands
Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije
Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the
Netherlands
Almut Arneth
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology KIT, Institute of Meteorology and
Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467
Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
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- Impacts of future agricultural change on ecosystem service indicators S. Rabin et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020
- A spatially explicit reconstruction of cropland based on expansion of polders in the Dongting Plain in China during 1750–1985 Y. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01575-8
44 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Uncertainty in land use obscures global soil organic carbon stock estimates C. Gang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109585
- A Simulation Analysis of Land Use Changes in the Yarlung Zangbo River and Its Two Tributaries of Tibet Using the Markov–PLUS Model W. Hao et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15021376
- A CORINE-Compatible Reconstruction of Pre-1990 Land Cover Dynamics in the Eastern Black Sea Region Using Landsat Data G. Misirlioglu & S. Gümüş https://doi.org/10.33904/ejfe.1854657
- Assessing land use change and the impacts on semi-natural habitats across England and Wales using four time points between 1930 and 2020 L. Ridding et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-025-02189-8
- Comparison of uncertainties in land-use change fluxes from bookkeeping model parameterisation A. Bastos et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-745-2021
- Four-decade response of ecological risk to land use changes in the Yangtze River Basin H. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-025-06580-y
- A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios R. Fuchs et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-441-2018
- What is the relationship between land use and surface water quality? A review and prospects from remote sensing perspective C. Cheng et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-21348-x
- Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments R. Prestele et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-369-2017
- Dynamic Global Vegetation Models: Searching for the balance between demographic process representation and computational tractability A. Argles et al. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000068
- Cultural tourism drives land use and economic changes in Amphawa, Thailand M. Worachairungreung et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2025.2591131
- Mapping the global distribution of C4 vegetation using observations and optimality theory X. Luo et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45606-3
- Land Use Effects on Water Chemistry in Lagos Lagoon, Nigeria (West Africa) B. Okorie et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/iroh.202402172
- Land use change effects on soil organic carbon store. An opportunity to soils regeneration in Mediterranean areas: Implications in the 4p1000 notion B. Lozano-García et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106831
- Legacy Effects from Historical Environmental Changes Dominate Future Terrestrial Carbon Uptake A. Krause et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001674
- Simulation of the Impact of Environmental Disturbances on Forest Biomass in Taiwan Y. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JG006519
- Detection and characterization of coastal tidal wetland change in the northeastern US using Landsat time series X. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2022.113047
- Differences and uncertainties in land-use CO2 flux estimates W. Obermeier et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-025-00730-6
- Gross and net land cover changes in the main plant functional types derived from the annual ESA CCI land cover maps (1992–2015) W. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-219-2018
- Representing anthropogenic gross land use change, wood harvest, and forest age dynamics in a global vegetation model ORCHIDEE-MICT v8.4.2 C. Yue et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-409-2018
- Global spatially explicit carbon emissions from land-use change over the past six decades (1961–2020) Z. Qin et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2024.04.002
- Simulating the recent impacts of multiple biotic disturbances on forest carbon cycling across the United States M. Kautz et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13974
- Recent Deforestation Pattern Changes (2000–2017) in the Central Carpathians: A Gray-Level Co-Occurrence Matrix and Fractal Analysis Approach A. Ciobotaru et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f10040308
- A Procedure for Evaluating Historical Land Use Change and Resilience in Highly Reclaimed Coastal Areas: The Case of the Tavoliere di Puglia (Southern Italy) V. De Santis et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12040775
- Accounting for forest age in the tile-based dynamic global vegetation model JSBACH4 (4.20p7; git feature/forests) – a land surface model for the ICON-ESM J. Nabel et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-185-2020
- Increased transparency in accounting conventions could benefit climate policy G. Wedderburn-Bisshop https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb7f2
- Atmospheric forcing uncertainty contributes to divergent estimates of China’s terrestrial carbon dynamics Y. Cheng et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae2af8
- Gross changes in forest area shape the future carbon balance of tropical forests W. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-91-2018
- Tổng quan về ảnh hưởng của hình thái sử dụng đất đến chất lượng nước Đ. Quốc Tuấn et al. https://doi.org/10.55250/Jo.vnuf.13.2.2024.095-103
- Smaller global and regional carbon emissions from gross land use change when considering sub-grid secondary land cohorts in a global dynamic vegetation model C. Yue et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-1185-2018
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- Pipes to Earth's subsurface: the role of atmospheric conditions in controlling air transport through boreholes and shafts E. Levintal et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1141-2018
- Land-use change emissions based on high-resolution activity data substantially lower than previously estimated R. Ganzenmüller et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac70d8
- Soil carbon stocks and dynamics of different land uses in Italy using the LUCAS soil database M. Khan & T. Chiti https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114452
- Projected land-use change emissions surpass climate change-induced carbon sinks in Sub-Saharan African biomes D. Sakala & M. Santos https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103039
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- Uncertainty Analysis of Multisource Land Cover Products in China L. Wang & J. Jin https://doi.org/10.3390/su13168857
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- Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services A. Bayer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021
- Comparison of frameworks for defining land occupation considering on-farm and off-farm feed production on Italian dairy farms G. Rolando et al. https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2024-25359
- Impacts of future agricultural change on ecosystem service indicators S. Rabin et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020
- A spatially explicit reconstruction of cropland based on expansion of polders in the Dongting Plain in China during 1750–1985 Y. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01575-8
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 13 Aug 2026
Short summary
We evaluate the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on carbon pools and fluxes using a dynamic global vegetation model. Different historical reconstructions yielded an uncertainty of ca. ±30 % in the mean annual land use emission over the last decades. Accounting for the parallel expansion and abandonment of croplands on a sub-grid level (tropical shifting cultivation) substantially increased the effect of land use on carbon stocks and fluxes compared to only accounting for net effects.
We evaluate the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on carbon pools and fluxes using a...
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