Articles | Volume 8, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
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18 Jul 2017
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 18 Jul 2017
Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions
Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY 10115, USA
Makiko Sato
Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY 10115, USA
Pushker Kharecha
Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY 10115, USA
Karina von Schuckmann
Mercator Ocean, 10 Rue Hermes, 31520 Ramonville St Agne, France
David J. Beerling
Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK
Junji Cao
Key Lab of Aerosol Chemistry and Physics, SKLLQG, Institute of Earth Environment, Xi'an, 710061, China
Shaun Marcott
Department of Geoscience, 1215 W. Dayton St., Weeks Hall, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706, USA
Valerie Masson-Delmotte
Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ) Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Michael J. Prather
Earth System Science Department, University of California at Irvine, CA, USA
Eelco J. Rohling
Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra, 2601, Australia
Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Jeremy Shakun
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA 02467, USA
Pete Smith
Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, 23 St Machar Drive, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, UK
Andrew Lacis
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA
Gary Russell
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA
Reto Ruedy
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA
SciSpace LLC, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA
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Piers M. Forster, Chris Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Bradley Hall, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan P. Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Blair Trewin, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Richard A. Betts, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Carlo Buontempo, Samantha Burgess, Chiara Cagnazzo, Lijing Cheng, Pierre Friedlingstein, Andrew Gettelman, Johannes Gütschow, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, Colin Morice, Jens Mühle, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel E. Killick, Paul B. Krummel, Jan C. Minx, Gunnar Myhre, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Mahesh V. M. Kovilakam, Elisa Majamäki, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Margreet van Marle, Rachel M. Hoesly, Robert Rohde, Dominik Schumacher, Guido van der Werf, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Xuebin Zhang, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2625–2658, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024, 2024
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This paper tracks some key indicators of global warming through time, from 1850 through to the end of 2023. It is designed to give an authoritative estimate of global warming to date and its causes. We find that in 2023, global warming reached 1.3 °C and is increasing at over 0.2 °C per decade. This is caused by all-time-high greenhouse gas emissions.
Joshua Cuzzone, Matias Romero, and Shaun A. Marcott
The Cryosphere, 18, 1381–1398, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1381-2024, 2024
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Hsiang-He Lee, Qi Tang, and Michael Prather
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Revised manuscript not accepted
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Tiehan Zhou, Kevin J. DallaSanta, Clara Orbe, David H. Rind, Jeffrey A. Jonas, Larissa Nazarenko, Gavin A. Schmidt, and Gary Russell
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 509–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-509-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-509-2024, 2024
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Andrew G. Jones, Shaun A. Marcott, Andrew L. Gorin, Tori M. Kennedy, Jeremy D. Shakun, Brent M. Goehring, Brian Menounos, Douglas H. Clark, Matias Romero, and Marc W. Caffee
The Cryosphere, 17, 5459–5475, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5459-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5459-2023, 2023
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Maria Val Martin, Elena Blanc-Betes, Ka Ming Fung, Euripides P. Kantzas, Ilsa B. Kantola, Isabella Chiaravalloti, Lyla L. Taylor, Louisa K. Emmons, William R. Wieder, Noah J. Planavsky, Michael D. Masters, Evan H. DeLucia, Amos P. K. Tai, and David J. Beerling
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 5783–5801, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5783-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-5783-2023, 2023
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Enhanced rock weathering (ERW) is a CO2 removal strategy that involves applying crushed rocks (e.g., basalt) to agricultural soils. However, unintended processes within the N cycle due to soil pH changes may affect the climate benefits of C sequestration. ERW could drive changes in soil emissions of non-CO2 GHGs (N2O) and trace gases (NO and NH3) that may affect air quality. We present a new improved N cycling scheme for the land model (CLM5) to evaluate ERW effects on soil gas N emissions.
Matthew J. McGrath, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Philippe Peylin, Robbie M. Andrew, Bradley Matthews, Frank Dentener, Juraj Balkovič, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Gregoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Giacomo Grassi, Ian Harris, Matthew Jones, Jürgen Knauer, Matthias Kuhnert, Guillaume Monteil, Saqr Munassar, Paul I. Palmer, Glen P. Peters, Chunjing Qiu, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Oksana Tarasova, Matteo Vizzarri, Karina Winkler, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Antoine Berchet, Peter Briggs, Patrick Brockmann, Frédéric Chevallier, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Sara Filipek, Pierre Friedlingstein, Richard Fuchs, Michael Gauss, Christoph Gerbig, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Richard A. Houghton, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ronny Lauerwald, Bas Lerink, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Géraud Moulas, Marilena Muntean, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Aurélie Paquirissamy, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, Roberto Pilli, Julia Pongratz, Pierre Regnier, Marko Scholze, Yusuf Serengil, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Rona L. Thompson, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, and Sophia Walther
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4295–4370, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, 2023
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Accurate estimation of fluxes of carbon dioxide from the land surface is essential for understanding future impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system. A wide variety of methods currently exist to estimate these sources and sinks. We are continuing work to develop annual comparisons of these diverse methods in order to clarify what they all actually calculate and to resolve apparent disagreement, in addition to highlighting opportunities for increased understanding.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lorena Moreira, and Pierre-Yves Le Traon
State Planet, 1-osr7, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-1-2023, 2023
Stefania A. Ciliberti, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Jay Pearlman, Kirsten Wilmer-Becker, Pierre Bahurel, Fabrice Ardhuin, Alain Arnaud, Mike Bell, Segolene Berthou, Laurent Bertino, Arthur Capet, Eric Chassignet, Stefano Ciavatta, Mauro Cirano, Emanuela Clementi, Gianpiero Cossarini, Gianpaolo Coro, Stuart Corney, Fraser Davidson, Marie Drevillon, Yann Drillet, Renaud Dussurget, Ghada El Serafy, Katja Fennel, Marcos Garcia Sotillo, Patrick Heimbach, Fabrice Hernandez, Patrick Hogan, Ibrahim Hoteit, Sudheer Joseph, Simon Josey, Pierre-Yves Le Traon, Simone Libralato, Marco Mancini, Pascal Matte, Angelique Melet, Yasumasa Miyazawa, Andrew M. Moore, Antonio Novellino, Andrew Porter, Heather Regan, Laia Romero, Andreas Schiller, John Siddorn, Joanna Staneva, Cecile Thomas-Courcoux, Marina Tonani, Jose Maria Garcia-Valdecasas, Jennifer Veitch, Karina von Schuckmann, Liying Wan, John Wilkin, and Romane Zufic
State Planet, 1-osr7, 2, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-2-2023, 2023
Michael J. Prather, Hao Guo, and Xin Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3299–3349, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3299-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3299-2023, 2023
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The Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) measured the chemical composition in air parcels from 0–12 km altitude on 2 km horizontal by 80 m vertical scales for four seasons, resolving most scales of chemical heterogeneity. ATom is one of the first missions designed to calculate the chemical evolution of each parcel, providing semi-global diurnal budgets for ozone and methane. Observations covered the remote troposphere: Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins, Southern Ocean, Arctic basin, Antarctica.
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023
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This is a critical decade for climate action, but there is no annual tracking of the level of human-induced warming. We build on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports that are authoritative but published infrequently to create a set of key global climate indicators that can be tracked through time. Our hope is that this becomes an important annual publication that policymakers, media, scientists and the public can refer to.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-609-2023, 2023
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Climate change is caused by the accumulated heat in the Earth system, with the land storing the second largest amount of this extra heat. Here, new estimates of continental heat storage are obtained, including changes in inland-water heat storage and permafrost heat storage in addition to changes in ground heat storage. We also argue that heat gains in all three components should be monitored independently of their magnitude due to heat-dependent processes affecting society and ecosystems.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
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Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Matthew J. McGrath, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Aki Tsuruta, Dominik Brunner, Matthias Kuhnert, Bradley Matthews, Paul I. Palmer, Oksana Tarasova, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Wilfried Winiwarter, Giuseppe Etiope, Tuula Aalto, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Vladislav Bastrikov, Antoine Berchet, Patrick Brockmann, Giancarlo Ciotoli, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Frank Dentener, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Massaer Kouyate, Adrian Leip, Antti Leppänen, Emanuele Lugato, Manon Maisonnier, Alistair J. Manning, Tiina Markkanen, Joe McNorton, Marilena Muntean, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Prabir K. Patra, Lucia Perugini, Isabelle Pison, Maarit T. Raivonen, Marielle Saunois, Arjo J. Segers, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Hanqin Tian, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, Guido R. van der Werf, Chris Wilson, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1197–1268, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1197-2023, 2023
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This study updates the state-of-the-art scientific overview of CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK in Petrescu et al. (2021a). Yearly updates are needed to improve the different respective approaches and to inform on the development of formal verification systems. It integrates the most recent emission inventories, process-based model and regional/global inversions, comparing them with UNFCCC national GHG inventories, in support to policy to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Michael J. Prather, Lucien Froidevaux, and Nathaniel J. Livesey
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 843–849, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-843-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-843-2023, 2023
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From satellite data for nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone and temperature, we calculate the monthly loss of N2O and find it is increasing faster than expected, resulting in a shorter lifetime, which reduces the impact of anthropogenic emissions. We identify the cause as enhanced vertical lofting of high-N2O air into the tropical middle stratosphere, where it is destroyed photochemically. Because global warming is due in part to N2O, this finding presents a new negative climate-chemistry feedback.
Hao Guo, Clare M. Flynn, Michael J. Prather, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Louisa Emmons, Forrest Lacey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Gus Correa, Lee T. Murray, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jason M. St. Clair, Michelle Kim, John Crounse, Glenn Diskin, Joshua DiGangi, Bruce C. Daube, Roisin Commane, Kathryn McKain, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Chelsea Thompson, Thomas F. Hanisco, Donald Blake, Nicola J. Blake, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 99–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-99-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-99-2023, 2023
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We have prepared a unique and unusual result from the recent ATom aircraft mission: a measurement-based derivation of the production and loss rates of ozone and methane over the ocean basins. These are the key products of chemistry models used in assessments but have thus far lacked observational metrics. It also shows the scales of variability of atmospheric chemical rates and provides a major challenge to the atmospheric models.
Aaron M. Barth, Elizabeth G. Ceperley, Claire Vavrus, Shaun A. Marcott, Jeremy D. Shakun, and Marc W. Caffee
Geochronology, 4, 731–743, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-731-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-731-2022, 2022
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Deposits left behind by past glacial activity provide insight into the previous size and behavior of glaciers and act as another line of evidence for past climate. Here we present new age control for glacial deposits in the mountains of Montana and Wyoming, United States. While some deposits indicate glacial activity within the last 2000 years, others are shown to be older than previously thought, thus redefining the extent of regional Holocene glaciation.
Rick Hennekam, Katharine M. Grant, Eelco J. Rohling, Rik Tjallingii, David Heslop, Andrew P. Roberts, Lucas J. Lourens, and Gert-Jan Reichart
Clim. Past, 18, 2509–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2509-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2509-2022, 2022
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The ratio of titanium to aluminum (Ti/Al) is an established way to reconstruct North African climate in eastern Mediterranean Sea sediments. We demonstrate here how to obtain reliable Ti/Al data using an efficient scanning method that allows rapid acquisition of long climate records at low expense. Using this method, we reconstruct a 3-million-year North African climate record. African environmental variability was paced predominantly by low-latitude insolation from 3–1.2 million years ago.
Kristine Karstens, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Marta Dondini, Jens Heinke, Matthias Kuhnert, Christoph Müller, Susanne Rolinski, Pete Smith, Isabelle Weindl, Hermann Lotze-Campen, and Alexander Popp
Biogeosciences, 19, 5125–5149, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5125-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5125-2022, 2022
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Soil organic carbon (SOC) has been depleted by anthropogenic land cover change and agricultural management. While SOC models often simulate detailed biochemical processes, the management decisions are still little investigated at the global scale. We estimate that soils have lost around 26 GtC relative to a counterfactual natural state in 1975. Yet, since 1975, SOC has been increasing again by 4 GtC due to a higher productivity, recycling of crop residues and manure, and no-tillage practices.
Antoine Grisart, Mathieu Casado, Vasileios Gkinis, Bo Vinther, Philippe Naveau, Mathieu Vrac, Thomas Laepple, Bénédicte Minster, Frederic Prié, Barbara Stenni, Elise Fourré, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Jean Jouzel, Martin Werner, Katy Pol, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Maria Hoerhold, Trevor Popp, and Amaelle Landais
Clim. Past, 18, 2289–2301, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2289-2022, 2022
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This paper presents a compilation of high-resolution (11 cm) water isotopic records, including published and new measurements, for the last 800 000 years from the EPICA Dome C ice core, Antarctica. Using this new combined water isotopes (δ18O and δD) dataset, we study the variability and possible influence of diffusion at the multi-decadal to multi-centennial scale. We observe a stronger variability at the onset of the interglacial interval corresponding to a warm period.
Negar Vakilifard, Richard G. Williams, Philip B. Holden, Katherine Turner, Neil R. Edwards, and David J. Beerling
Biogeosciences, 19, 4249–4265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, 2022
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To remain within the Paris climate agreement, there is an increasing need to develop and implement carbon capture and sequestration techniques. The global climate benefits of implementing negative emission technologies over the next century are assessed using an Earth system model covering a wide range of plausible climate states. In some model realisations, there is continued warming after emissions cease. This continued warming is avoided if negative emissions are incorporated.
Clara T. Bolton, Emmeline Gray, Wolfgang Kuhnt, Ann E. Holbourn, Julia Lübbers, Katharine Grant, Kazuyo Tachikawa, Gianluca Marino, Eelco J. Rohling, Anta-Clarisse Sarr, and Nils Andersen
Clim. Past, 18, 713–738, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-713-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-713-2022, 2022
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The timing of the initiation and evolution of the South Asian monsoon in the geological past is a subject of debate. Here, we present a new age model spanning the late Miocene (9 to 5 million years ago) and high-resolution records of past open-ocean biological productivity from the equatorial Indian Ocean that we interpret to reflect monsoon wind strength. Our data show no long-term intensification; however, strong orbital periodicities suggest insolation forcing of monsoon wind strength.
Michael J. Prather
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 703–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-703-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric CO2 fluctuations point to changes in fossil fuel emissions plus natural and perturbed variations in the natural carbon cycle. One unstudied source of variability is the stratosphere, where the influx of aged CO2-depleted air can cause surface fluctuations. Using modeling and, separately, scaling the observed N2O variability, I find that stratosphere-driven surface variability in CO2 is not a significant uncertainty (at most 10 % of the observed interannual variability).
Daniel J. Ruiz and Michael J. Prather
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 2079–2093, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2079-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2079-2022, 2022
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The stratosphere is an important source of tropospheric ozone, which affects climate, chemistry, and air quality, but is extremely difficult to quantify given the large production and loss terms in the troposphere. Here, we use other gases that are well observed and quantified as a reference to test our simulations of ozone transport in the atmosphere. This allows us to better constrain the stratospheric source of ozone and also offers guidance to improve future simulations of ozone transport.
Martin Horwath, Benjamin D. Gutknecht, Anny Cazenave, Hindumathi Kulaiappan Palanisamy, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Frank Paul, Raymond Le Bris, Anna E. Hogg, Inès Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Petra Döll, Denise Cáceres, Hannes Müller Schmied, Johnny A. Johannessen, Jan Even Øie Nilsen, Roshin P. Raj, René Forsberg, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Valentina R. Barletta, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Per Knudsen, Ole Baltazar Andersen, Heidi Ranndal, Stine K. Rose, Christopher J. Merchant, Claire R. Macintosh, Karina von Schuckmann, Kristin Novotny, Andreas Groh, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 411–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-411-2022, 2022
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Global mean sea-level change observed from 1993 to 2016 (mean rate of 3.05 mm yr−1) matches the combined effect of changes in water density (thermal expansion) and ocean mass. Ocean-mass change has been assessed through the contributions from glaciers, ice sheets, and land water storage or directly from satellite data since 2003. Our budget assessments of linear trends and monthly anomalies utilise new datasets and uncertainty characterisations developed within ESA's Climate Change Initiative.
José Padarian, Budiman Minasny, Alex B. McBratney, and Pete Smith
SOIL Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-2021-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-2021-73, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Soil organic carbon sequestration is considered an attractive technology to partially mitigate climate change. Here, we show how the SOC storage potential varies globally. The estimated additional SOC storage potential in the topsoil of global croplands (29–67 Pg C) equates to only 2 to 5 years of emissions offsetting and 32 % of agriculture's 92 Pg historical carbon debt. Since SOC is temperature-dependent, this potential is likely to reduce by 18 % by 2040 due to climate change.
Hao Guo, Clare M. Flynn, Michael J. Prather, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Louisa Emmons, Forrest Lacey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Gus Correa, Lee T. Murray, Glenn M. Wolfe, Jason M. St. Clair, Michelle Kim, John Crounse, Glenn Diskin, Joshua DiGangi, Bruce C. Daube, Roisin Commane, Kathryn McKain, Jeff Peischl, Thomas B. Ryerson, Chelsea Thompson, Thomas F. Hanisco, Donald Blake, Nicola J. Blake, Eric C. Apel, Rebecca S. Hornbrook, James W. Elkins, Eric J. Hintsa, Fred L. Moore, and Steven Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13729–13746, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13729-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13729-2021, 2021
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The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission built a climatology of the chemical composition of tropospheric air parcels throughout the middle of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The level of detail allows us to reconstruct the photochemical budgets of O3 and CH4 over these vast, remote regions. We find that most of the chemical heterogeneity is captured at the resolution used in current global chemistry models and that the majority of reactivity occurs in the
hottest20 % of parcels.
Yandong Tong, Veronika Pospisilova, Lu Qi, Jing Duan, Yifang Gu, Varun Kumar, Pragati Rai, Giulia Stefenelli, Liwei Wang, Ying Wang, Haobin Zhong, Urs Baltensperger, Junji Cao, Ru-Jin Huang, André S. H. Prévôt, and Jay G. Slowik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 9859–9886, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9859-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9859-2021, 2021
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We investigate SOA sources and formation processes by a field deployment of the EESI-TOF-MS and L-TOF AMS in Beijing in late autumn and early winter. Our study shows that the sources and processes giving rise to haze events in Beijing are variable and seasonally dependent: (1) in the heating season, SOA formation is driven by oxidation of aromatics from solid fuel combustion; and (2) under high-NOx and RH conditions, aqueous-phase chemistry can be a major contributor to SOA formation.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Chunjing Qiu, Philippe Ciais, Rona L. Thompson, Philippe Peylin, Matthew J. McGrath, Efisio Solazzo, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Peter Bergamaschi, Dominik Brunner, Glen P. Peters, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, David Bastviken, Aki Tsuruta, Wilfried Winiwarter, Prabir K. Patra, Matthias Kuhnert, Gabriel D. Oreggioni, Monica Crippa, Marielle Saunois, Lucia Perugini, Tiina Markkanen, Tuula Aalto, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Hanqin Tian, Yuanzhi Yao, Chris Wilson, Giulia Conchedda, Dirk Günther, Adrian Leip, Pete Smith, Jean-Matthieu Haussaire, Antti Leppänen, Alistair J. Manning, Joe McNorton, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2307–2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2307-2021, 2021
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up and top-down CH4 and N2O emissions in the EU27 and UK. The data integrate recent emission inventories with process-based model data and regional/global inversions for the European domain, aiming at reconciling them with official country-level UNFCCC national GHG inventories in support to policy and to facilitate real-time verification procedures.
Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Matthew J. McGrath, Robbie M. Andrew, Philippe Peylin, Glen P. Peters, Philippe Ciais, Gregoire Broquet, Francesco N. Tubiello, Christoph Gerbig, Julia Pongratz, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Giacomo Grassi, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Pierre Regnier, Ronny Lauerwald, Matthias Kuhnert, Juraj Balkovič, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Hugo A. C. Denier van der
Gon, Efisio Solazzo, Chunjing Qiu, Roberto Pilli, Igor B. Konovalov, Richard A. Houghton, Dirk Günther, Lucia Perugini, Monica Crippa, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Pete Smith, Saqr Munassar, Rona L. Thompson, Giulia Conchedda, Guillaume Monteil, Marko Scholze, Ute Karstens, Patrick Brockmann, and Albertus Johannes Dolman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2363–2406, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2363-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2363-2021, 2021
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This study is topical and provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of data availability from bottom-up and top-down CO2 fossil emissions and CO2 land fluxes in the EU27+UK. The data integrate recent emission inventories with ecosystem data, land carbon models and regional/global inversions for the European domain, aiming at reconciling CO2 estimates with official country-level UNFCCC national GHG inventories in support to policy and facilitating real-time verification procedures.
Qi Tang, Michael J. Prather, Juno Hsu, Daniel J. Ruiz, Philip J. Cameron-Smith, Shaocheng Xie, and Jean-Christophe Golaz
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1219–1236, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1219-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1219-2021, 2021
Jiarui Wu, Naifang Bei, Yuan Wang, Xia Li, Suixin Liu, Lang Liu, Ruonan Wang, Jiaoyang Yu, Tianhao Le, Min Zuo, Zhenxing Shen, Junji Cao, Xuexi Tie, and Guohui Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 2229–2249, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2229-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-2229-2021, 2021
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A source-oriented version of the WRF-Chem model is developed to conduct source identification of wintertime PM2.5 in the North China Plain. Trans-boundary transport of air pollutants generally dominates the haze pollution in Beijing and Tianjin. The air quality in Hebei, Shandong, and Shanxi is generally controlled by local emissions. Primary aerosol species, such as EC and POA, are generally controlled by local emissions, while secondary aerosol shows evident regional characteristics.
Lyla L. Taylor, Charles T. Driscoll, Peter M. Groffman, Greg H. Rau, Joel D. Blum, and David J. Beerling
Biogeosciences, 18, 169–188, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-169-2021, 2021
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Enhanced rock weathering (ERW) is a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategy involving soil amendments with silicate rock dust. Over 15 years, a small silicate application led to net CDR of 8.5–11.5 t CO2/ha in an acid-rain-impacted New Hampshire forest. We accounted for the total carbon cost of treatment and compared effects with an adjacent, untreated forest. Our results suggest ERW can improve the greenhouse gas balance of similar forests in addition to mitigating acid rain effects.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lijing Cheng, Matthew D. Palmer, James Hansen, Caterina Tassone, Valentin Aich, Susheel Adusumilli, Hugo Beltrami, Tim Boyer, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Damien Desbruyères, Catia Domingues, Almudena García-García, Pierre Gentine, John Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Masayoshi Ishii, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian A. King, Gottfried Kirchengast, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, John Lyman, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Maeva Monier, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Axel Schweiger, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Andrew Shepherd, Donald A. Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Fiammetta Straneo, Mary-Louise Timmermans, and Susan E. Wijffels
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2013–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, 2020
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Understanding how much and where the heat is distributed in the Earth system is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming oceans, atmosphere and land, rising temperatures and sea level, and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to obtain the Earth heat inventory over the period 1960–2018.
Wagner de Oliveira Garcia, Thorben Amann, Jens Hartmann, Kristine Karstens, Alexander Popp, Lena R. Boysen, Pete Smith, and Daniel Goll
Biogeosciences, 17, 2107–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2107-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2107-2020, 2020
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Biomass-based terrestrial negative emission technologies (tNETS) have high potential to sequester CO2. Many CO2 uptake estimates do not include the effect of nutrient deficiencies in soils on biomass production. We show that nutrients can be partly resupplied by enhanced weathering (EW) rock powder application, increasing the effectiveness of tNETs. Depending on the deployed amounts of rock powder, EW could also improve soil hydrology, adding a new dimension to the coupling of tNETs with EW.
John G. Watson, Junji Cao, L.-W. Antony Chen, Qiyuan Wang, Jie Tian, Xiaoliang Wang, Steven Gronstal, Steven Sai Hang Ho, Adam C. Watts, and Judith C. Chow
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 14173–14193, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14173-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14173-2019, 2019
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Although peat burning is a common global emission source, region-specific emission factors are lacking. This work fills that gap for six peat-bearing regions. It is also shown through simulated aging with an oxidation flow reactor that potential aerosol mass changes during transport.
Lang Liu, Naifang Bei, Jiarui Wu, Suixin Liu, Jiamao Zhou, Xia Li, Qingchuan Yang, Tian Feng, Junji Cao, Xuexi Tie, and Guohui Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 13341–13354, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13341-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-13341-2019, 2019
Judith C. Chow, Junji Cao, L.-W. Antony Chen, Xiaoliang Wang, Qiyuan Wang, Jie Tian, Steven Sai Hang Ho, Adam C. Watts, Tessa B. Carlson, Steven D. Kohl, and John G. Watson
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 5475–5501, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5475-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5475-2019, 2019
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Source profiles that allow peat fire contributions to be distinguished from other source contributions using receptor models are lacking for a wide variety of peat fuels and burning conditions. These profiles change with photochemical aging during transport. Fresh and aged profiles for a variety of peat fuels are measured with an oxidation flow reactor to improve source attributions at distant receptors.
Xuexi Tie, Xin Long, Guohui Li, Shuyu Zhao, Junji Cao, and Jianming Xu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11267–11278, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11267-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11267-2019, 2019
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This study shows that there were often co-occurrences of high PM2.5 and O3 concentrations, which were related to high HONO, in eastern China. This result suggests that high daytime HONO can be photodissociated to OH radicals, enhancing the chemical production of O3 and suggesting that under high aerosol conditions, the chemical oxidizing process for O3 production can occur in eastern China.
Xin Long, Xuexi Tie, Jiamao Zhou, Wenting Dai, Xueke Li, Tian Feng, Guohui Li, Junji Cao, and Zhisheng An
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 11185–11197, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11185-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-11185-2019, 2019
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China is undergoing ever-increasing demand for electricity, and launched the Green Light Program (GLP), which is an effective reduction of the coal consumption for power generation. The estimated potential coal saving induced by the GLP can reach a massive value of 120–323 million tons. There was a massive resultant potential emission reduction of air pollutants, which is inherently connected to the haze formation, because the NOx and SO2 are important precursors for the formation of particles.
James A. Menking, Edward J. Brook, Sarah A. Shackleton, Jeffrey P. Severinghaus, Michael N. Dyonisius, Vasilii Petrenko, Joseph R. McConnell, Rachael H. Rhodes, Thomas K. Bauska, Daniel Baggenstos, Shaun Marcott, and Stephen Barker
Clim. Past, 15, 1537–1556, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1537-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1537-2019, 2019
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An ice core from Taylor Glacier, Antarctica, spans a period ~ 70 000 years ago when Earth entered the last ice age. Chemical analyses of the ice and air bubbles allow for an independent determination of the ages of the ice and gas bubbles. The difference between the age of the ice and the bubbles at any given depth, called ∆age, is unusually high in the Taylor Glacier core compared to the Taylor Dome ice core situated to the south. This implies a dramatic accumulation gradient between the sites.
Lang Liu, Jiarui Wu, Suixin Liu, Xia Li, Jiamao Zhou, Tian Feng, Yang Qian, Junji Cao, Xuexi Tie, and Guohui Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 8189–8207, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-8189-2019, 2019
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Suzanne Preunkert, Michel Legrand, Bénédicte Minster, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 13, 1297–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1297-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1297-2019, 2019
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We report new water stable isotope records from the first highly resolved firn core drilled in Adélie Land and covering 1998–2014. Using an updated database, we show that mean values are in line with the range of coastal values. Statistical analyses show no relationship between our record and local surface air temperature. Atmospheric back trajectories and isotopic simulations suggest that water stable isotopes in Adélie provide a fingerprint of the variability of atmospheric dynamics.
François Klein, Nerilie J. Abram, Mark A. J. Curran, Hugues Goosse, Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Andrew Moy, Raphael Neukom, Anaïs Orsi, Jesper Sjolte, Nathan Steiger, Barbara Stenni, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 15, 661–684, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-661-2019, 2019
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Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia have been reconstructed from isotope records in ice cores in several studies. However, the link between both variables is complex. Here, we investigate the extent to which this affects the robustness of temperature reconstructions using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments. We show that the reconstruction skill is limited, especially at the regional scale, due to a weak and nonstationary covariance between δ18O and temperature.
David J. Wilton, Marcus P. S. Badger, Euripides P. Kantzas, Richard D. Pancost, Paul J. Valdes, and David J. Beerling
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1351–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1351-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1351-2019, 2019
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Methane is an important greenhouse gas naturally produced in wetlands (areas of land inundated with water). Models of the Earth's past climate need estimates of the amounts of methane wetlands produce; and in order to calculate those we need to model wetlands. In this work we develop a method for modelling the fraction of an area of the Earth that is wetland, repeat this over all the Earth's land surface and apply this to a study of the Earth as it was around 50 million years ago.
Li Xing, Jiarui Wu, Miriam Elser, Shengrui Tong, Suixin Liu, Xia Li, Lang Liu, Junji Cao, Jiamao Zhou, Imad El-Haddad, Rujin Huang, Maofa Ge, Xuexi Tie, André S. H. Prévôt, and Guohui Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 2343–2359, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2343-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-2343-2019, 2019
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We used the WRF-CHEM model to simulate wintertime secondary organic aerosol (SOA) concentrations over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH), China. Heterogeneous HONO sources increased the near-surface SOA by 46.3 % in BTH. Direct emissions of glyoxal and methylglyoxal from residential sources contributed 25.5 % to the total SOA mass. Our study highlights the importance of heterogeneous HONO sources and primary residential emissions of glyoxal and methylglyoxal to SOA formation in winter over BTH.
Samuel R. Hall, Kirk Ullmann, Michael J. Prather, Clare M. Flynn, Lee T. Murray, Arlene M. Fiore, Gustavo Correa, Sarah A. Strode, Stephen D. Steenrod, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jonathan Guth, Béatrice Josse, Johannes Flemming, Vincent Huijnen, N. Luke Abraham, and Alex T. Archibald
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 16809–16828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16809-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16809-2018, 2018
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Photolysis (J rates) initiates and drives atmospheric chemistry, and Js are perturbed by factors of 2 by clouds. The NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) Mission provides the first comprehensive observations on how clouds perturb Js through the remote Pacific and Atlantic basins. We compare these cloud-perturbation J statistics with those from nine global chemistry models. While basic patterns agree, there is a large spread across models, and all lack some basic features of the observations.
Gary L. Russell, David H. Rind, and Jeffrey Jonas
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4637–4656, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4637-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4637-2018, 2018
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This paper presents the Fortran 90 source code for one-layer model GISS:IB on an icosahedral grid. The model solves the shallow water equations on the sphere using three symmetric horizontal components of angular momentum instead of velocity. One-layer shallow water models are a basic building block used in complex global weather and climate models.
Amaëlle Landais, Emilie Capron, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Samuel Toucanne, Rachael Rhodes, Trevor Popp, Bo Vinther, Bénédicte Minster, and Frédéric Prié
Clim. Past, 14, 1405–1415, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1405-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1405-2018, 2018
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During the last glacial–interglacial climate transition (120 000 to 10 000 years before present), Greenland climate and midlatitude North Atlantic climate and water cycle vary in phase over the succession of millennial events. We identify here one notable exception to this behavior with a decoupling unambiguously identified through a combination of water isotopic tracers measured in a Greenland ice core. The midlatitude moisture source becomes warmer and wetter at 16 200 years before present.
Sarah A. Strode, Junhua Liu, Leslie Lait, Róisín Commane, Bruce Daube, Steven Wofsy, Austin Conaty, Paul Newman, and Michael Prather
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10955–10971, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10955-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10955-2018, 2018
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The GEOS-5 atmospheric model provided forecasts for the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom). GEOS-5 shows skill in simulating the carbon monoxide (CO) measured in ATom-1. African fires contribute to high CO over the tropical Atlantic, but non-fire sources are the main contributors elsewhere. ATom aims to provide a chemical climatology, so we consider whether ATom-1 occurred during a typical summer month. Satellite observations suggest ATom-1 occurred in a clean but not exceptional month.
Xin Long, Naifang Bei, Jiarui Wu, Xia Li, Tian Feng, Li Xing, Shuyu Zhao, Junji Cao, Xuexi Tie, Zhisheng An, and Guohui Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10869–10879, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10869-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10869-2018, 2018
Xia Li, Jiarui Wu, Miriam Elser, Tian Feng, Junji Cao, Imad El-Haddad, Rujin Huang, Xuexi Tie, André S. H. Prévôt, and Guohui Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 10675–10691, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10675-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-10675-2018, 2018
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Anaïs Orsi, and Martin Werner
Clim. Past, 14, 923–946, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-923-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-923-2018, 2018
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Atmospheric general circulation models equipped with water stable isotopes are key tools to explore the links between climate variables and precipitation isotopic composition and thus to quantify past temperature changes using ice core records. Here, we evaluate the skills of ECHAM5-wiso to simulate the spatio-temporal characteristics of Antarctic climate and precipitation isotopic composition at the regional scale, thanks to a database of precipitation and ice core records.
Jiarui Wu, Naifang Bei, Xia Li, Junji Cao, Tian Feng, Yichen Wang, Xuexi Tie, and Guohui Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8491–8504, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8491-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-8491-2018, 2018
Ru-Jin Huang, Junji Cao, Yang Chen, Lu Yang, Jincan Shen, Qihua You, Kai Wang, Chunshui Lin, Wei Xu, Bo Gao, Yongjie Li, Qi Chen, Thorsten Hoffmann, Colin D. O'Dowd, Merete Bilde, and Marianne Glasius
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 3447–3456, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-3447-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-3447-2018, 2018
Mathieu Casado, Amaelle Landais, Ghislain Picard, Thomas Münch, Thomas Laepple, Barbara Stenni, Giuliano Dreossi, Alexey Ekaykin, Laurent Arnaud, Christophe Genthon, Alexandra Touzeau, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, and Jean Jouzel
The Cryosphere, 12, 1745–1766, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1745-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1745-2018, 2018
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Ice core isotopic records rely on the knowledge of the processes involved in the archival processes of the snow. In the East Antarctic Plateau, post-deposition processes strongly affect the signal found in the surface and buried snow compared to the initial climatic signal. We evaluate the different contributions to the surface snow isotopic composition between the precipitation and the exchanges with the atmosphere and the variability of the isotopic signal found in profiles from snow pits.
Michael J. Prather, Clare M. Flynn, Xin Zhu, Stephen D. Steenrod, Sarah A. Strode, Arlene M. Fiore, Gustavo Correa, Lee T. Murray, and Jean-Francois Lamarque
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 2653–2668, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-2653-2018, 2018
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A new protocol for merging in situ atmospheric chemistry measurements with 3-D models is developed. This technique can identify the most reactive air parcels in terms of tropospheric production/loss of O3 & CH4. This approach highlights differences in 6 global chemistry models even with composition specified. Thus in situ measurements from, e.g., NASA's ATom mission can be used to develop a chemical climatology of, not only the key species, but also the rates of key reactions in each air parcel.
Xin Long, Xuexi Tie, Guohui Li, Junji Cao, Tian Feng, Shuyu Zhao, Li Xing, and Zhisheng An
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6353–6366, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6353-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6353-2018, 2018
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Using satellite products of MODIS and the numerical model of WRF-DUST, we proved that the ecological restoration programs in China help to reduce the dust pollution in the NCP, providing a direct and quantified answer to the ongoing debate about the effectiveness of the national ERPs. Despite the limitations of the case study, we provide some insights into the effects of ERPs on the downwind area, where heavy haze often occurs due to anthropogenic air pollutants.
Yan-Lin Zhang, Imad El-Haddad, Ru-Jin Huang, Kin-Fai Ho, Jun-Ji Cao, Yongming Han, Peter Zotter, Carlo Bozzetti, Kaspar R. Daellenbach, Jay G. Slowik, Gary Salazar, André S. H. Prévôt, and Sönke Szidat
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4005–4017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4005-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4005-2018, 2018
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Here we present a quantitative source apportionment of WSOC, isolated from aerosols in China using radiocarbon (14C) and offline high-resolution time of flight aerosol mass spectrometer measurements. We demonstrate a dominant contribution of non-fossil emissions to WSOC aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the fossil fraction is substantially larger in aerosols from East Asia and the east Asian pollution outflow, especially during winter, due to increasing coal combustion.
Naifang Bei, Jiarui Wu, Miriam Elser, Tian Feng, Junji Cao, Imad El-Haddad, Xia Li, Rujin Huang, Zhengqiang Li, Xin Long, Li Xing, Shuyu Zhao, Xuexi Tie, André S. H. Prévôt, and Guohui Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14579–14591, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14579-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14579-2017, 2017
Feng Wu, Daizhou Zhang, Junji Cao, Xiao Guo, Yao Xia, Ting Zhang, Hui Lu, and Yan Cheng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14473–14484, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14473-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14473-2017, 2017
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Sulfate and nitrate in dust particles at a desert site and a 700 km downwind urban site in China were compared. The production of the two salts during the transport of dust particles was limited because of the adiabatic process of the dust-loading air movement. Significant sulfate and nitrate previously reported in dust-associated samples were very likely from locally emitted and urban aerosols or soil-derived particles rather than the products of chemical reactions on desert dust particles.
Ruth M. Doherty, Clara Orbe, Guang Zeng, David A. Plummer, Michael J. Prather, Oliver Wild, Meiyun Lin, Drew T. Shindell, and Ian A. Mackenzie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14219–14237, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14219-2017, 2017
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We investigate how climate change impacts global air pollution transport. To study transport changes, we use a carbon monoxide (CO) tracer species emitted from global sources. We find robust and consistent changes in CO-tracer distributions in climate change simulations performed by four chemistry–climate models in different seasons. We highlight the importance of the co-location of emission source regions and controlling transport processes in determining future pollution transport.
Barbara Stenni, Mark A. J. Curran, Nerilie J. Abram, Anais Orsi, Sentia Goursaud, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Raphael Neukom, Hugues Goosse, Dmitry Divine, Tas van Ommen, Eric J. Steig, Daniel A. Dixon, Elizabeth R. Thomas, Nancy A. N. Bertler, Elisabeth Isaksson, Alexey Ekaykin, Martin Werner, and Massimo Frezzotti
Clim. Past, 13, 1609–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1609-2017, 2017
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Within PAGES Antarctica2k, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records. We produce isotopic composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE for seven distinct Antarctic regions. We find a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all regions. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for three regions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of last-2000-year natural variability.
Torsten Diem, Nicholas J. Morley, Adan Julian Ccahuana Quispe, Lidia Priscila Huaraca Quispe, Elizabeth M. Baggs, Patrick Meir, Mark I. A. Richards, Pete Smith, and Yit Arn Teh
Biogeosciences, 14, 5077–5097, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5077-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5077-2017, 2017
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Montane ecosystems in the southern Peruvian Andes were atmospheric sources of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide, exceeding prior emissions estimates from bottom-up process models. Nitrous oxide flux originated primarily from nitrate reduction. Nitrous oxide fluxes showed an inverse trend with elevation, and only weak evidence of seasonal variability. Nitrous oxide fluxes were influenced by the availability of nitrate and soil moisture content, but were not predicted by inputs of labile carbon.
Frédéric Parrenin, Marie G. P. Cavitte, Donald D. Blankenship, Jérôme Chappellaz, Hubertus Fischer, Olivier Gagliardini, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Olivier Passalacqua, Catherine Ritz, Jason Roberts, Martin J. Siegert, and Duncan A. Young
The Cryosphere, 11, 2427–2437, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2427-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2427-2017, 2017
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The oldest dated deep ice core drilled in Antarctica has been retrieved at EPICA Dome C (EDC), reaching ~ 800 000 years. Obtaining an older palaeoclimatic record from Antarctica is one of the greatest challenges of the ice core community. Here, we estimate the age of basal ice in the Dome C area. We find that old ice (> 1.5 Myr) likely exists in two regions a few tens of kilometres away from EDC:
Little Dome C Patchand
North Patch.
Elisabeth Schlosser, Anna Dittmann, Barbara Stenni, Jordan G. Powers, Kevin W. Manning, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Mauro Valt, Anselmo Cagnati, Paolo Grigioni, and Claudio Scarchilli
The Cryosphere, 11, 2345–2361, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2345-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-2345-2017, 2017
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To derive paleotemperatures from ice cores we must know all processes involved in ice formation. At the Antarctic base Dome C, a unique precipitation data set plus stable water isotope data enabled us to study atmospheric processes influencing isotope ratios of precipitation in detail. Meteorological data from both automatic weather station and an atmospheric model were used to investigate how different atmospheric flow patterns determine the precipitation parameters used in paleoclimatology.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Ray Weiss, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11135–11161, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11135-2017, 2017
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Following the Global Methane Budget 2000–2012 published in Saunois et al. (2016), we use the same dataset of bottom-up and top-down approaches to discuss the variations in methane emissions over the period 2000–2012. The changes in emissions are discussed both in terms of trends and quasi-decadal changes. The ensemble gathered here allows us to synthesise the robust changes in terms of regional and sectorial contributions to the increasing methane emissions.
Michael J. Prather, Xin Zhu, Clare M. Flynn, Sarah A. Strode, Jose M. Rodriguez, Stephen D. Steenrod, Junhua Liu, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Arlene M. Fiore, Larry W. Horowitz, Jingqiu Mao, Lee T. Murray, Drew T. Shindell, and Steven C. Wofsy
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9081–9102, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9081-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9081-2017, 2017
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We present a new approach for comparing atmospheric chemistry models with measurements based on what these models are used to do, i.e., calculate changes in ozone and methane, prime greenhouse gases. This method anticipates a new type of measurements from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission. In comparing the mixture of species within air parcels, we focus on those responsible for key chemical changes and weight these parcels by their chemical reactivity.
Juno Hsu, Michael J. Prather, Philip Cameron-Smith, Alex Veidenbaum, and Alex Nicolau
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2525–2545, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2525-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2525-2017, 2017
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Solar-J is a high-fidelity solar radiative transfer Fortran 90 code. It has been developed for consistently calculating both the photolysis rates of important chemical species and the heating rates of the atmosphere and the Earth's surface. Its spectral range spans from 177 nm to 12 microns. It can be easily dropped in as a module in global climate–chemistry models.
Yunfei Wu, Xiaojia Wang, Jun Tao, Rujin Huang, Ping Tian, Junji Cao, Leiming Zhang, Kin-Fai Ho, Zhiwei Han, and Renjian Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7965–7975, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7965-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7965-2017, 2017
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As black carbon (BC) aerosols play an important role in the climate and environment, the size distribution of refractory BC (rBC) was investigated. On this basis, the source of rBC was further analyzed. The local traffic exhausts contributed greatly to the rBC in urban areas. However, its contribution decreased significantly in the polluted period compared to the clean period, implying the increasing contribution of other sources, e.g., coal combustion or biomass burning, in the polluted period.
Mélanie Wary, Frédérique Eynaud, Didier Swingedouw, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Jens Matthiessen, Catherine Kissel, Jena Zumaque, Linda Rossignol, and Jean Jouzel
Clim. Past, 13, 729–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-729-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-729-2017, 2017
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The last glacial period was punctuated by abrupt climatic variations, whose cold atmospheric phases have been commonly associated with cold sea-surface temperatures and expansion of sea ice in the North Atlantic and adjacent seas. Here we provide direct evidence of a regional paradoxical see-saw pattern: cold Greenland and North Atlantic phases coincide with warmer sea-surface conditions and shorter seasonal sea-ice cover durations in the Norwegian Sea as compared to warm phases.
Xu Zhou, Naifang Bei, Hongli Liu, Junji Cao, Li Xing, Wenfang Lei, Luisa T. Molina, and Guohui Li
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7423–7434, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7423-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7423-2017, 2017
Anna Kozachek, Vladimir Mikhalenko, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Alexey Ekaykin, Patrick Ginot, Stanislav Kutuzov, Michel Legrand, Vladimir Lipenkov, and Susanne Preunkert
Clim. Past, 13, 473–489, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-473-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-473-2017, 2017
Guohui Li, Naifang Bei, Junji Cao, Rujin Huang, Jiarui Wu, Tian Feng, Yichen Wang, Suixin Liu, Qiang Zhang, Xuexi Tie, and Luisa T. Molina
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3301–3316, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3301-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3301-2017, 2017
Guohui Li, Naifang Bei, Junji Cao, Jiarui Wu, Xin Long, Tian Feng, Wenting Dai, Suixin Liu, Qiang Zhang, and Xuexi Tie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2759–2774, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2759-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2759-2017, 2017
Gunnar Myhre, Wenche Aas, Ribu Cherian, William Collins, Greg Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Piers Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Zbigniew Klimont, Marianne T. Lund, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Dirk Olivié, Michael Prather, Johannes Quaas, Bjørn H. Samset, Jordan L. Schnell, Michael Schulz, Drew Shindell, Ragnhild B. Skeie, Toshihiko Takemura, and Svetlana Tsyro
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2709–2720, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2709-2017, 2017
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Over the past decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990–2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The global mean radiative forcing is more strongly positive than reported in IPCC AR5.
Jiarui Wu, Guohui Li, Junji Cao, Naifang Bei, Yichen Wang, Tian Feng, Rujin Huang, Suixin Liu, Qiang Zhang, and Xuexi Tie
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2035–2051, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2035-2017, 2017
William J. Collins, Jean-François Lamarque, Michael Schulz, Olivier Boucher, Veronika Eyring, Michaela I. Hegglin, Amanda Maycock, Gunnar Myhre, Michael Prather, Drew Shindell, and Steven J. Smith
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 585–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017, 2017
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We have designed a set of climate model experiments called the Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). These are designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases in the climate models that are used to simulate past and future climate. We hope that many climate modelling centres will choose to run these experiments to help understand the contribution of aerosols and chemistry to climate change.
Sentia Goursaud, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Vincent Favier, Susanne Preunkert, Michel Fily, Hubert Gallée, Bruno Jourdain, Michel Legrand, Olivier Magand, Bénédicte Minster, and Martin Werner
The Cryosphere, 11, 343–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-343-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-343-2017, 2017
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Uncertainty of sea level changes is a challenge. As Antarctica is the biggest water reservoir, it is necessary to know how it will contribute. To be able to simulate it, an understanding of past climate is to be achieved, for instance, by studying the ice cores. As climate change is different in different regions, observations are needed all over the continent. Studying an ice core in Adélie Land, we can conclude that there are no changes there at decadal scale over the period 1947–2007.
Alexey A. Ekaykin, Diana O. Vladimirova, Vladimir Y. Lipenkov, and Valérie Masson-Delmotte
Clim. Past, 13, 61–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-61-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-61-2017, 2017
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Understanding the Antarctic climate system is crucial in the context of the present-day global environmental changes, but key gaps arise from limited observations. We present a new reconstructed stacked climate record for Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica. Records show 1 °C warming over the last 350 years, with a particularly cold period from the mid-18th to mid-19th century. Temperature variability with a period > 27 years is mainly related to the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole mode.
Marielle Saunois, Philippe Bousquet, Ben Poulter, Anna Peregon, Philippe Ciais, Josep G. Canadell, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Giuseppe Etiope, David Bastviken, Sander Houweling, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Francesco N. Tubiello, Simona Castaldi, Robert B. Jackson, Mihai Alexe, Vivek K. Arora, David J. Beerling, Peter Bergamaschi, Donald R. Blake, Gordon Brailsford, Victor Brovkin, Lori Bruhwiler, Cyril Crevoisier, Patrick Crill, Kristofer Covey, Charles Curry, Christian Frankenberg, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund-Isaksson, Misa Ishizawa, Akihiko Ito, Fortunat Joos, Heon-Sook Kim, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Jean-François Lamarque, Ray Langenfelds, Robin Locatelli, Toshinobu Machida, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Julia Marshall, Joe R. Melton, Isamu Morino, Vaishali Naik, Simon O'Doherty, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Prabir K. Patra, Changhui Peng, Shushi Peng, Glen P. Peters, Isabelle Pison, Catherine Prigent, Ronald Prinn, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Makoto Saito, Monia Santini, Ronny Schroeder, Isobel J. Simpson, Renato Spahni, Paul Steele, Atsushi Takizawa, Brett F. Thornton, Hanqin Tian, Yasunori Tohjima, Nicolas Viovy, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Michiel van Weele, Guido R. van der Werf, Ray Weiss, Christine Wiedinmyer, David J. Wilton, Andy Wiltshire, Doug Worthy, Debra Wunch, Xiyan Xu, Yukio Yoshida, Bowen Zhang, Zhen Zhang, and Qiuan Zhu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 697–751, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-697-2016, 2016
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An accurate assessment of the methane budget is important to understand the atmospheric methane concentrations and trends and to provide realistic pathways for climate change mitigation. The various and diffuse sources of methane as well and its oxidation by a very short lifetime radical challenge this assessment. We quantify the methane sources and sinks as well as their uncertainties based on both bottom-up and top-down approaches provided by a broad international scientific community.
Bojan Sič, Laaziz El Amraoui, Andrea Piacentini, Virginie Marécal, Emanuele Emili, Daniel Cariolle, Michael Prather, and Jean-Luc Attié
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 5535–5554, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5535-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5535-2016, 2016
Mathieu Casado, Amaelle Landais, Ghislain Picard, Thomas Münch, Thomas Laepple, Barbara Stenni, Giuliano Dreossi, Alexey Ekaykin, Laurent Arnaud, Christophe Genthon, Alexandra Touzeau, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Jean Jouzel
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-263, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2016-263, 2016
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Ice core isotopic records rely on the knowledge of the processes involved in the archival of the snow. In the East Antarctic Plateau, post-deposition processes strongly affect the signal found in the surface and buried snow compared to the initial climatic signal. We evaluate the different contributions to the surface snow isotopic composition between the precipitation and the exchanges with the atmosphere and the variability of the isotopic signal found in profiles from snow pits.
Barbara Stenni, Claudio Scarchilli, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Elisabeth Schlosser, Virginia Ciardini, Giuliano Dreossi, Paolo Grigioni, Mattia Bonazza, Anselmo Cagnati, Daniele Karlicek, Camille Risi, Roberto Udisti, and Mauro Valt
The Cryosphere, 10, 2415–2428, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2415-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-2415-2016, 2016
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Here, we focus on the Concordia Station, central East Antarctic plateau, providing a multi-year record (2008–2010) of daily precipitation types identified from crystal morphologies, precipitation amounts and isotopic composition. Relationships between local meteorological data and precipitation oxygen isotope composition are investigated. Our dataset is available for in-depth model evaluation at the synoptic scale.
Amaelle Landais, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Emilie Capron, Petra M. Langebroek, Pepijn Bakker, Emma J. Stone, Niklaus Merz, Christoph C. Raible, Hubertus Fischer, Anaïs Orsi, Frédéric Prié, Bo Vinther, and Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
Clim. Past, 12, 1933–1948, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1933-2016, 2016
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The last lnterglacial (LIG; 116 000 to 129 000 years before present) surface temperature at the upstream Greenland NEEM deposition site is estimated to be warmer by +7 to +11 °C compared to the preindustrial period. We show that under such warm temperatures, melting of snow probably led to a significant surface melting. There is a paradox between the extent of the Greenland ice sheet during the LIG and the strong warming during this period that models cannot solve.
Timothé Bolliet, Patrick Brockmann, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Franck Bassinot, Valérie Daux, Dominique Genty, Amaelle Landais, Marlène Lavrieux, Elisabeth Michel, Pablo Ortega, Camille Risi, Didier M. Roche, Françoise Vimeux, and Claire Waelbroeck
Clim. Past, 12, 1693–1719, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1693-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1693-2016, 2016
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This paper presents a new database of past climate proxies which aims to facilitate the distribution of data by using a user-friendly interface. Available data from the last 40 years are often fragmented, with lots of different formats, and online libraries are sometimes nonintuitive. We thus built a new dynamic web portal for data browsing, visualizing, and batch downloading of hundreds of datasets presenting a homogeneous format.
Xin Long, Xuexi Tie, Junji Cao, Rujin Huang, Tian Feng, Nan Li, Suyu Zhao, Jie Tian, Guohui Li, and Qiang Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 9675–9691, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9675-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-9675-2016, 2016
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We studied the impact of crop field burning (CFB) on air pollution in North China Plain (NCP) using MODIS observations and the numerical model WRF-CHEM. The CFB plume emitted in southern NCP and went through a long-range transport to northern NCP. The long-range transport and the effect of mountains obviously enhanced the PM2.5 pollution in northern NCP. The prohibition of CFB should be strict not just in or around Beijing, but also on the ulterior crop growth areas of southern NCP.
François Ritter, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Martin Werner, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Anais Orsi, Melanie Behrens, Gerit Birnbaum, Johannes Freitag, Camille Risi, and Sepp Kipfstuhl
The Cryosphere, 10, 1647–1663, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1647-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1647-2016, 2016
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We present successful continuous measurements of water vapor isotopes performed in Antarctica in January 2013. The interest is to understand the impact of the water vapor isotopic composition on the near-surface snow isotopes. Our study reveals a diurnal cycle in the snow isotopic composition in phase with the vapor. This finding suggests fractionation during the sublimation of the ice, which has an important consequence on the interpretation of water isotope variations in ice cores.
Mathieu Casado, Amaelle Landais, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Christophe Genthon, Erik Kerstel, Samir Kassi, Laurent Arnaud, Ghislain Picard, Frederic Prie, Olivier Cattani, Hans-Christian Steen-Larsen, Etienne Vignon, and Peter Cermak
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8521–8538, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8521-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8521-2016, 2016
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Climatic conditions in Concordia are very cold (−55 °C in average) and very dry, imposing difficult conditions to measure the water vapour isotopic composition. New developments in infrared spectroscopy enable now the measurement of isotopic composition in water vapour traces (down to 20 ppmv). Here we present the results results of a first campaign of measurement of isotopic composition of water vapour in Concordia, the site where the 800 000 years long ice core was drilled.
Anna Dittmann, Elisabeth Schlosser, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Jordan G. Powers, Kevin W. Manning, Martin Werner, and Koji Fujita
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6883–6900, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6883-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-6883-2016, 2016
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For a better understanding of the stable water isotope data from ice cores, recent time periods have to be analysed, where both measurements and model simulations are available. This was done for Dome Fuji by combining observations, synoptic analysis, back trajectories, and isotopic modelling. It was found that a more northerly moisture source does not necessarily mean a larger temperature difference between source area and deposition site and thus precipitation more depleted in heavy isotopes.
Inga Labuhn, Valérie Daux, Olivier Girardclos, Michel Stievenard, Monique Pierre, and Valérie Masson-Delmotte
Clim. Past, 12, 1101–1117, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1101-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1101-2016, 2016
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This article presents a reconstruction of summer droughts in France for the last 680 years, based on oxygen isotope ratios in tree ring cellulose from living trees and building timbers at two sites, Fontainebleau and Angoulême. Both sites show coherent drought patterns during the 19th and 20th century, and are characterized by increasing drought in recent decades. A decoupling between sites points to a more heterogeneous climate in France during earlier centuries.
Saskia D. Keesstra, Johan Bouma, Jakob Wallinga, Pablo Tittonell, Pete Smith, Artemi Cerdà, Luca Montanarella, John N. Quinton, Yakov Pachepsky, Wim H. van der Putten, Richard D. Bardgett, Simon Moolenaar, Gerben Mol, Boris Jansen, and Louise O. Fresco
SOIL, 2, 111–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-2-111-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-2-111-2016, 2016
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Soil science, as a land-related discipline, has links to several of the UN Sustainable Development Goals which are demonstrated through the functions of soils and related ecosystem services. We discuss how soil scientists can rise to the challenge both internally and externally in terms of our relations with colleagues in other disciplines, diverse groups of stakeholders and the policy arena. To meet these goals we recommend the set of steps to be taken by the soil science community as a whole.
Lucie Bazin, Amaelle Landais, Emilie Capron, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Catherine Ritz, Ghislain Picard, Jean Jouzel, Marie Dumont, Markus Leuenberger, and Frédéric Prié
Clim. Past, 12, 729–748, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-729-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-729-2016, 2016
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We present new measurements of δO2⁄N2 and δ18Oatm performed on well-conserved ice from EDC covering MIS5 and between 380 and 800 ka. The combination of the observation of a 100 ka periodicity in the new δO2⁄N2 record with a MIS5 multi-site multi-proxy study has revealed a potential influence of local climatic parameters on δO2⁄N2. Moreover, we propose that the varying delay between d18Oatm and precession for the last 800 ka is affected by the occurrence of ice sheet discharge events.
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Paul Hearty, Reto Ruedy, Maxwell Kelley, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Gary Russell, George Tselioudis, Junji Cao, Eric Rignot, Isabella Velicogna, Blair Tormey, Bailey Donovan, Evgeniya Kandiano, Karina von Schuckmann, Pushker Kharecha, Allegra N. Legrande, Michael Bauer, and Kwok-Wai Lo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016, 2016
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We use climate simulations, paleoclimate data and modern observations to infer that continued high fossil fuel emissions will yield cooling of Southern Ocean and North Atlantic surfaces, slowdown and shutdown of SMOC & AMOC, increasingly powerful storms and nonlinear sea level rise reaching several meters in 50–150 years, effects missed in IPCC reports because of omission of ice sheet melt and an insensitivity of most climate models, likely due to excessive ocean mixing.
P. Smith, M. F. Cotrufo, C. Rumpel, K. Paustian, P. J. Kuikman, J. A. Elliott, R. McDowell, R. I. Griffiths, S. Asakawa, M. Bustamante, J. I. House, J. Sobocká, R. Harper, G. Pan, P. C. West, J. S. Gerber, J. M. Clark, T. Adhya, R. J. Scholes, and M. C. Scholes
SOIL, 1, 665–685, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-665-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-665-2015, 2015
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Soils play a pivotal role in major global biogeochemical cycles (carbon, nutrient, and water), while hosting the largest diversity of organisms on land. Soils deliver fundamental ecosystem services, and management to change a soil process in support of one ecosystem service can affect other services. We provide a critical review of these aspects, and conclude that, although there are knowledge gaps, enough is known improve soils globally, and we suggest actions to start this process.
J. L. Schnell, M. J. Prather, B. Josse, V. Naik, L. W. Horowitz, P. Cameron-Smith, D. Bergmann, G. Zeng, D. A. Plummer, K. Sudo, T. Nagashima, D. T. Shindell, G. Faluvegi, and S. A. Strode
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10581–10596, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10581-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10581-2015, 2015
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We test global chemistry--climate models in their ability to simulate present-day surface ozone. Models are tested against observed hourly ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1°x1° grid cells. Using novel metrics, we find most models match the shape but not the amplitude of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles and match the pattern but not the magnitude of summer ozone enhancement. Most also match the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes
J.-L. Tison, M. de Angelis, G. Littot, E. Wolff, H. Fischer, M. Hansson, M. Bigler, R. Udisti, A. Wegner, J. Jouzel, B. Stenni, S. Johnsen, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Landais, V. Lipenkov, L. Loulergue, J.-M. Barnola, J.-R. Petit, B. Delmonte, G. Dreyfus, D. Dahl-Jensen, G. Durand, B. Bereiter, A. Schilt, R. Spahni, K. Pol, R. Lorrain, R. Souchez, and D. Samyn
The Cryosphere, 9, 1633–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1633-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1633-2015, 2015
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The oldest paleoclimatic information is buried within the lowermost layers of deep ice cores. It is therefore essential to judge how deep these records remain unaltered. We study the bottom 60 meters of the EPICA Dome C ice core from central Antarctica to show that the paleoclimatic signal is only affected at the small scale (decimeters) in terms of some of the global ice properties. However our data suggest that the time scale has been considerably distorted by mechanical stretching.
M. J. Prather
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2587–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2587-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2587-2015, 2015
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A new approach for modeling photolysis rates (J values) in atmospheres with fractional cloud cover has been developed and is implemented as Cloud-J – a multi-scattering eight-stream radiative transfer model for solar radiation based on Fast-J. Using observations of the vertical correlation of cloud layers, Cloud-J provides a practical and accurate method for modeling atmospheric chemistry, which can be extended to solar heating rates.
V. Masson-Delmotte, H. C. Steen-Larsen, P. Ortega, D. Swingedouw, T. Popp, B. M. Vinther, H. Oerter, A. E. Sveinbjornsdottir, H. Gudlaugsdottir, J. E. Box, S. Falourd, X. Fettweis, H. Gallée, E. Garnier, V. Gkinis, J. Jouzel, A. Landais, B. Minster, N. Paradis, A. Orsi, C. Risi, M. Werner, and J. W. C. White
The Cryosphere, 9, 1481–1504, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1481-2015, 2015
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The deep NEEM ice core provides the oldest Greenland ice core record, enabling improved understanding of the response of ice core records to local climate. Here, we focus on shallow ice cores providing a stack record of accumulation and water-stable isotopes spanning the past centuries. For the first time, we document the ongoing warming in a Greenland ice core. By combining our data with other Greenland ice cores and model results, we characterise the spatio-temporal patterns of variability.
K. Nishina, A. Ito, P. Falloon, A. D. Friend, D. J. Beerling, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, R. Kahana, E. Kato, W. Lucht, M. Lomas, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, L. Warszawaski, and T. Yokohata
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 435–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-435-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-435-2015, 2015
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Our study focused on uncertainties in terrestrial C cycling under newly developed scenarios with CMIP5. This study presents first results for examining relative uncertainties of projected terrestrial C cycling in multiple projection components. Only using our new model inter-comparison project data sets enables us to evaluate various uncertainty sources in projection periods. The information on relative uncertainties is useful for climate science and climate change impact evaluation.
P. Alexander, K. Paustian, P. Smith, and D. Moran
SOIL, 1, 331–339, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-331-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/soil-1-331-2015, 2015
Y. Liao, W. L. Wu, F. Q. Meng, P. Smith, and R. Lal
Biogeosciences, 12, 1403–1413, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1403-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1403-2015, 2015
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Agricultural intensification has contributed to sustained Chinese food supply since 1980s and also influenced soil organic carbon (SOC) stock. The study, conducted in Huantai county - a typical intensive farming region in northern China, found that from 1982 to 2011, farmland SOC stock (0-20cm) of the entire county increased by 59% which can be well explained by the increasing crop residues input. More technologies must be developed for enhancement of SOC and reduction of non-CO2 GHG emissions.
F. Parrenin, S. Fujita, A. Abe-Ouchi, K. Kawamura, V. Masson-Delmotte, H. Motoyama, F. Saito, M. Severi, B. Stenni, R. Uemura, and E. Wolff
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-377-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cpd-11-377-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
M. Guillevic, L. Bazin, A. Landais, C. Stowasser, V. Masson-Delmotte, T. Blunier, F. Eynaud, S. Falourd, E. Michel, B. Minster, T. Popp, F. Prié, and B. M. Vinther
Clim. Past, 10, 2115–2133, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2115-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2115-2014, 2014
H. C. Steen-Larsen, A. E. Sveinbjörnsdottir, A. J. Peters, V. Masson-Delmotte, M. P. Guishard, G. Hsiao, J. Jouzel, D. Noone, J. K. Warren, and J. W. C. White
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7741–7756, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7741-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7741-2014, 2014
J. L. Schnell, C. D. Holmes, A. Jangam, and M. J. Prather
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7721–7739, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7721-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7721-2014, 2014
C. D. Holmes, M. J. Prather, and G. C. M. Vinken
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6801–6812, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6801-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6801-2014, 2014
K. von Schuckmann, J.-B. Sallée, D. Chambers, P.-Y. Le Traon, C. Cabanes, F. Gaillard, S. Speich, and M. Hamon
Ocean Sci., 10, 547–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-547-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-547-2014, 2014
V. Bastrikov, H. C. Steen-Larsen, V. Masson-Delmotte, K. Gribanov, O. Cattani, J. Jouzel, and V. Zakharov
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 1763–1776, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-1763-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-1763-2014, 2014
K. Gribanov, J. Jouzel, V. Bastrikov, J.-L. Bonne, F.-M. Breon, M. Butzin, O. Cattani, V. Masson-Delmotte, N. Rokotyan, M. Werner, and V. Zakharov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5943–5957, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5943-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5943-2014, 2014
M. Butzin, M. Werner, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, C. Frankenberg, K. Gribanov, J. Jouzel, and V. I. Zakharov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5853–5869, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5853-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5853-2014, 2014
J.-L. Bonne, V. Masson-Delmotte, O. Cattani, M. Delmotte, C. Risi, H. Sodemann, and H. C. Steen-Larsen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4419–4439, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4419-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4419-2014, 2014
Y. A. Teh, T. Diem, S. Jones, L. P. Huaraca Quispe, E. Baggs, N. Morley, M. Richards, P. Smith, and P. Meir
Biogeosciences, 11, 2325–2339, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2325-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2325-2014, 2014
K. Nishina, A. Ito, D. J. Beerling, P. Cadule, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, P. Falloon, A. D. Friend, R. Kahana, E. Kato, R. Keribin, W. Lucht, M. Lomas, T. T. Rademacher, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, N. Vuichard, L. Warszawaski, and T. Yokohata
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 197–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-197-2014, 2014
H. C. Steen-Larsen, V. Masson-Delmotte, M. Hirabayashi, R. Winkler, K. Satow, F. Prié, N. Bayou, E. Brun, K. M. Cuffey, D. Dahl-Jensen, M. Dumont, M. Guillevic, S. Kipfstuhl, A. Landais, T. Popp, C. Risi, K. Steffen, B. Stenni, and A. E. Sveinbjörnsdottír
Clim. Past, 10, 377–392, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-377-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-377-2014, 2014
G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. LeGrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, L.-B. Tremblay, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 10, 221–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014, 2014
O. J. Squire, A. T. Archibald, N. L. Abraham, D. J. Beerling, C. N. Hewitt, J. Lathière, R. C. Pike, P. J. Telford, and J. A. Pyle
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 1011–1024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1011-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-1011-2014, 2014
J. Quirk, J. R. Leake, S. A. Banwart, L. L. Taylor, and D. J. Beerling
Biogeosciences, 11, 321–331, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-321-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-321-2014, 2014
M. van der Velde, J. Balkovič, C. Beer, N. Khabarov, M. Kuhnert, M. Obersteiner, R. Skalský, W. Xiong, and P. Smith
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1561-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-11-1561-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
P. O. Hopcroft, P. J. Valdes, R. Wania, and D. J. Beerling
Clim. Past, 10, 137–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-137-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-137-2014, 2014
P. H. Lauritzen, P. A. Ullrich, C. Jablonowski, P. A. Bosler, D. Calhoun, A. J. Conley, T. Enomoto, L. Dong, S. Dubey, O. Guba, A. B. Hansen, E. Kaas, J. Kent, J.-F. Lamarque, M. J. Prather, D. Reinert, V. V. Shashkin, W. C. Skamarock, B. Sørensen, M. A. Taylor, and M. A. Tolstykh
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 105–145, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-105-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-105-2014, 2014
S. Hou, J. Chappellaz, D. Raynaud, V. Masson-Delmotte, J. Jouzel, P. Bousquet, and D. Hauglustaine
Clim. Past, 9, 2549–2554, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2549-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2549-2013, 2013
L. Bazin, A. Landais, B. Lemieux-Dudon, H. Toyé Mahamadou Kele, D. Veres, F. Parrenin, P. Martinerie, C. Ritz, E. Capron, V. Lipenkov, M.-F. Loutre, D. Raynaud, B. Vinther, A. Svensson, S. O. Rasmussen, M. Severi, T. Blunier, M. Leuenberger, H. Fischer, V. Masson-Delmotte, J. Chappellaz, and E. Wolff
Clim. Past, 9, 1715–1731, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1715-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1715-2013, 2013
V. Naik, A. Voulgarakis, A. M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Lin, M. J. Prather, P. J. Young, D. Bergmann, P. J. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, B. Josse, Y. H. Lee, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, T. P. C. van Noije, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, R. Skeie, D. T. Shindell, D. S. Stevenson, S. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5277–5298, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-5277-2013, 2013
R. Wania, J. R. Melton, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, P. O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, J. S. Singarayer, S. Zürcher, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. J. Beerling, S. N. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa, and J. O. Kaplan
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 617–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013, 2013
H. C. Steen-Larsen, S. J. Johnsen, V. Masson-Delmotte, B. Stenni, C. Risi, H. Sodemann, D. Balslev-Clausen, T. Blunier, D. Dahl-Jensen, M. D. Ellehøj, S. Falourd, A. Grindsted, V. Gkinis, J. Jouzel, T. Popp, S. Sheldon, S. B. Simonsen, J. Sjolte, J. P. Steffensen, P. Sperlich, A. E. Sveinbjörnsdóttir, B. M. Vinther, and J. W. C. White
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 4815–4828, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4815-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-4815-2013, 2013
M. Guillevic, L. Bazin, A. Landais, P. Kindler, A. Orsi, V. Masson-Delmotte, T. Blunier, S. L. Buchardt, E. Capron, M. Leuenberger, P. Martinerie, F. Prié, and B. M. Vinther
Clim. Past, 9, 1029–1051, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1029-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1029-2013, 2013
E. Capron, A. Landais, D. Buiron, A. Cauquoin, J. Chappellaz, M. Debret, J. Jouzel, M. Leuenberger, P. Martinerie, V. Masson-Delmotte, R. Mulvaney, F. Parrenin, and F. Prié
Clim. Past, 9, 983–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-983-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-983-2013, 2013
P. Mathiot, H. Goosse, X. Crosta, B. Stenni, M. Braida, H. Renssen, C. J. Van Meerbeeck, V. Masson-Delmotte, A. Mairesse, and S. Dubinkina
Clim. Past, 9, 887–901, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-887-2013, 2013
M. Casado, P. Ortega, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Swingedouw, V. Daux, D. Genty, F. Maignan, O. Solomina, B. Vinther, N. Viovy, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 9, 871–886, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-871-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-871-2013, 2013
A. Voulgarakis, V. Naik, J.-F. Lamarque, D. T. Shindell, P. J. Young, M. J. Prather, O. Wild, R. D. Field, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, I. Cionni, W. J. Collins, S. B. Dalsøren, R. M. Doherty, V. Eyring, G. Faluvegi, G. A. Folberth, L. W. Horowitz, B. Josse, I. A. MacKenzie, T. Nagashima, D. A. Plummer, M. Righi, S. T. Rumbold, D. S. Stevenson, S. A. Strode, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, and G. Zeng
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2563–2587, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2563-2013, 2013
J. R. Melton, R. Wania, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, D. J. Beerling, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, S. N. Denisov, P. O. Hopcroft, D. P. Lettenmaier, W. J. Riley, J. S. Singarayer, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, S. Zürcher, V. Brovkin, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, and J. O. Kaplan
Biogeosciences, 10, 753–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, 2013
C. D. Holmes, M. J. Prather, O. A. Søvde, and G. Myhre
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 285–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-285-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-285-2013, 2013
Ø. Hodnebrog, T. K. Berntsen, O. Dessens, M. Gauss, V. Grewe, I. S. A. Isaksen, B. Koffi, G. Myhre, D. Olivié, M. J. Prather, F. Stordal, S. Szopa, Q. Tang, P. van Velthoven, and J. E. Williams
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 12211–12225, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12211-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-12211-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Dynamics of the Earth system: concepts
Rate-induced tipping in natural and human systems
Tracing the Snowball bifurcation of aquaplanets through time reveals a fundamental shift in critical-state dynamics
Multi-million-year cycles in modelled δ13C as a response to astronomical forcing of organic matter fluxes
Reliability of resilience estimation based on multi-instrument time series
The ExtremeX global climate model experiment: investigating thermodynamic and dynamic processes contributing to weather and climate extremes
ESD Ideas: planetary antifragility: a new dimension in the definition of the safe operating space for humanity
Glacial runoff buffers droughts through the 21st century
Inarticulate past: similarity properties of the ice–climate system and their implications for paleo-record attribution
Extreme weather and societal impacts in the eastern Mediterranean
Sedimentary microplankton distributions are shaped by oceanographically connected areas
Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region
Taxonomies for structuring models for World–Earth systems analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social–ecological feedback loops
ESD Ideas: A weak positive feedback between sea level and the planetary albedo
The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints
Sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea region
Earth system economics: a biophysical approach to the human component of the Earth system
The half-order energy balance equation – Part 1: The homogeneous HEBE and long memories
The half-order energy balance equation – Part 2: The inhomogeneous HEBE and 2D energy balance models
A dynamical systems characterization of atmospheric jet regimes
Synchronized spatial shifts of Hadley and Walker circulations
ESD Ideas: The Peclet number is a cornerstone of the orbital and millennial Pleistocene variability
Temperatures from energy balance models: the effective heat capacity matters
Relating climate sensitivity indices to projection uncertainty
The role of prior assumptions in carbon budget calculations
Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World–Earth modeling framework
π-theorem generalization of the ice-age theory
Earth system data cubes unravel global multivariate dynamics
ESD Ideas: Why are glaciations slower than deglaciations?
Fractional governing equations of transient groundwater flow in unconfined aquifers with multi-fractional dimensions in fractional time
Climate system response to stratospheric sulfate aerosols: sensitivity to altitude of aerosol layer
Minimal dynamical systems model of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream via embedding of climate data
Millennium-length precipitation reconstruction over south-eastern Asia: a pseudo-proxy approach
Including the efficacy of land ice changes in deriving climate sensitivity from paleodata
The role of moisture transport for precipitation in the inter-annual and inter-daily fluctuations of the Arctic sea ice extension
On the assessment of the moisture transport by the Great Plains low-level jet
ESD Ideas: The stochastic climate model shows that underestimated Holocene trends and variability represent two sides of the same coin
Cascading transitions in the climate system
The climate of a retrograde rotating Earth
Diurnal land surface energy balance partitioning estimated from the thermodynamic limit of a cold heat engine
How intermittency affects the rate at which rainfall extremes respond to changes in temperature
Climate sensitivity estimates – sensitivity to radiative forcing time series and observational data
On deeper human dimensions in Earth system analysis and modelling
Bias correction of surface downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation for the EWEMBI dataset
Estimating sowing and harvest dates based on the Asian summer monsoon
Quantifying changes in spatial patterns of surface air temperature dynamics over several decades
Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) – a bottom–up, science-led approach to identifying indicators
Climate indices for the Baltic states from principal component analysis
Fractal scaling analysis of groundwater dynamics in confined aquifers
An explanation for the different climate sensitivities of land and ocean surfaces based on the diurnal cycle
Multivariate anomaly detection for Earth observations: a comparison of algorithms and feature extraction techniques
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Hassan Alkhayuon, Peter M. Cox, and Sebastian Wieczorek
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 669–683, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-669-2023, 2023
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Complex systems can undergo abrupt changes or tipping points when external forcing crosses a critical level and are of increasing concern because of their severe impacts. However, tipping points can also occur when the external forcing changes too quickly without crossing any critical levels, which is very relevant for Earth’s systems and contemporary climate. We give an intuitive explanation of such rate-induced tipping and provide illustrative examples from natural and human systems.
Georg Feulner, Mona Bukenberger, and Stefan Petri
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 533–547, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-533-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-533-2023, 2023
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One limit of planetary habitability is defined by the threshold of global glaciation. If Earth cools, growing ice cover makes it brighter, leading to further cooling, since more sunlight is reflected, eventually leading to global ice cover (Snowball Earth). We study how much carbon dioxide is needed to prevent global glaciation in Earth's history given the slow increase in the Sun's brightness. We find an unexpected change in the characteristics of climate states close to the Snowball limit.
Gaëlle Leloup and Didier Paillard
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 291–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-291-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-291-2023, 2023
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Records of past carbon isotopes exhibit oscillations. It is clear over very different time periods that oscillations of 400 kyr take place. Also, strong oscillations of approximately 8–9 Myr are seen over different time periods. While earlier modelling studies have been able to produce 400 kyr oscillations, none of them produced 8–9 Myr cycles. Here, we propose a simple model for the carbon cycle that is able to produce 8–9 Myr oscillations in the modelled carbon isotopes.
Taylor Smith, Ruxandra-Maria Zotta, Chris A. Boulton, Timothy M. Lenton, Wouter Dorigo, and Niklas Boers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 173–183, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-173-2023, 2023
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Multi-instrument records with varying signal-to-noise ratios are becoming increasingly common as legacy sensors are upgraded, and data sets are modernized. Induced changes in higher-order statistics such as the autocorrelation and variance are not always well captured by cross-calibration schemes. Here we investigate using synthetic examples how strong resulting biases can be and how they can be avoided in order to make reliable statements about changes in the resilience of a system.
Kathrin Wehrli, Fei Luo, Mathias Hauser, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, Dim Coumou, Wilhelm May, Philippe Le Sager, Frank Selten, Olivia Martius, Robert Vautard, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1167–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, 2022
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The ExtremeX experiment was designed to unravel the contribution of processes leading to the occurrence of recent weather and climate extremes. Global climate simulations are carried out with three models. The results show that in constrained experiments, temperature anomalies during heatwaves are well represented, although climatological model biases remain. Further, a substantial contribution of both atmospheric circulation and soil moisture to heat extremes is identified.
Oliver López-Corona, Melanie Kolb, Elvia Ramírez-Carrillo, and Jon Lovett
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1145–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1145-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1145-2022, 2022
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Climate change, the loss of biodiversity and land-use change, among others, have been recognized as main human perturbations to Earth system dynamics, the so-called planetary boundaries. Effort has been made to understand how to define a safe operating space for humanity (accepted levels of these perturbations). In this work we address the problem by assessing the Earth's capacity to respond to these perturbations, a capacity that the planet is losing.
Lizz Ultee, Sloan Coats, and Jonathan Mackay
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 935–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-935-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-935-2022, 2022
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Global climate models suggest that droughts could worsen over the coming century. In mountain basins with glaciers, glacial runoff can ease droughts, but glaciers are retreating worldwide. We analyzed how one measure of drought conditions changes when accounting for glacial runoff that changes over time. Surprisingly, we found that glacial runoff can continue to buffer drought throughout the 21st century in most cases, even as the total amount of runoff declines.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 879–884, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-879-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-879-2022, 2022
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Reconstruction and explanation of past climate evolution using proxy records is the essence of paleoclimatology. In this study, we use dimensional analysis of a dynamical model on orbital timescales to recognize theoretical limits of such forensic inquiries. Specifically, we demonstrate that major past events could have been produced by physically dissimilar processes making the task of paleo-record attribution to a particular phenomenon fundamentally difficult if not impossible.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
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Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Peter D. Nooteboom, Peter K. Bijl, Christian Kehl, Erik van Sebille, Martin Ziegler, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 357–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-357-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-357-2022, 2022
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Having descended through the water column, microplankton in ocean sediments represents the ocean surface environment and is used as an archive of past and present surface oceanographic conditions. However, this microplankton is advected by turbulent ocean currents during its sinking journey. We use simulations of sinking particles to define ocean bottom provinces and detect these provinces in datasets of sedimentary microplankton, which has implications for palaeoclimate reconstructions.
Anna Rutgersson, Erik Kjellström, Jari Haapala, Martin Stendel, Irina Danilovich, Martin Drews, Kirsti Jylhä, Pentti Kujala, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Kirsten Halsnæs, Ilari Lehtonen, Anna Luomaranta, Erik Nilsson, Taru Olsson, Jani Särkkä, Laura Tuomi, and Norbert Wasmund
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 251–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, 2022
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A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event with a negative effect on people, society, or the environment; major events in the study area include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea level, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. In the future, an increase in sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves, and phytoplankton blooms is expected, and a decrease in cold spells and severe ice winters is anticipated.
Jonathan F. Donges, Wolfgang Lucht, Sarah E. Cornell, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Steven J. Lade, and Maja Schlüter
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1115–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1115-2021, 2021
Ben Marzeion
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1057–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1057-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1057-2021, 2021
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The oceans are typically darker than land surfaces. Expanding oceans through sea-level rise may thus lead to a darker planet Earth, reflecting less sunlight. The additionally absorbed sunlight may heat planet Earth, leading to further sea-level rise. Here, we provide a rough estimate of the strength of this feedback: it turns out to be very weak, but clearly positive, thereby destabilizing the Earth system.
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Angeline G. Pendergrass, Charles D. Koven, Florent Brient, Ben B. B. Booth, Rosie A. Fisher, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 899–918, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-899-2021, 2021
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Emergent constraints promise a pathway to the reduction in climate projection uncertainties by exploiting ensemble relationships between observable quantities and unknown climate response parameters. This study considers the robustness of these relationships in light of biases and common simplifications that may be present in the original ensemble of climate simulations. We propose a classification scheme for constraints and a number of practical case studies.
Ralf Weisse, Inga Dailidienė, Birgit Hünicke, Kimmo Kahma, Kristine Madsen, Anders Omstedt, Kevin Parnell, Tilo Schöne, Tarmo Soomere, Wenyan Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 871–898, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-871-2021, 2021
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The study is part of the thematic Baltic Earth Assessment Reports – a series of review papers summarizing the knowledge around major Baltic Earth science topics. It concentrates on sea level dynamics and coastal erosion (its variability and change). Many of the driving processes are relevant in the Baltic Sea. Contributions vary over short distances and across timescales. Progress and research gaps are described in both understanding details in the region and in extending general concepts.
Eric D. Galbraith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 671–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-671-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-671-2021, 2021
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Scientific tradition has left a gap between the study of humans and the rest of the Earth system. Here, a holistic approach to the global human system is proposed, intended to provide seamless integration with natural sciences. At the core, this focuses on what humans are doing with their time, what the bio-physical outcomes of those activities are, and what the lived experience is. The quantitative approach can facilitate data analysis across scales and integrated human–Earth system modeling.
Shaun Lovejoy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 469–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-469-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-469-2021, 2021
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Monthly scale, seasonal-scale, and decadal-scale modeling of the atmosphere is possible using the principle of energy balance. Yet the scope of classical approaches is limited because they do not adequately deal with energy storage in the Earth system. We show that the introduction of a vertical coordinate implies that the storage has a huge memory. This memory can be used for macroweather (long-range) forecasts and climate projections.
Shaun Lovejoy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 489–511, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-489-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-489-2021, 2021
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Radiant energy is exchanged between the Earth's surface and outer space. Some of the local imbalances are stored in the subsurface, and some are transported horizontally. In Part 1 I showed how – in a horizontally homogeneous Earth – these classical approaches imply long-memory storage useful for seasonal forecasting and multidecadal projections. In this Part 2, I show how to apply these results to the heterogeneous real Earth.
Gabriele Messori, Nili Harnik, Erica Madonna, Orli Lachmy, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 233–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, 2021
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Atmospheric jets are a key component of the climate system and of our everyday lives. Indeed, they affect human activities by influencing the weather in many mid-latitude regions. However, we still lack a complete understanding of their dynamical properties. In this study, we try to relate the understanding gained in idealized computer simulations of the jets to our knowledge from observations of the real atmosphere.
Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, and Malte F. Stuecker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 121–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-121-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-121-2021, 2021
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Changes in the Hadley and Walker cells cause major climate disruptions across our planet. What has been overlooked so far is the question of whether these two circulations can shift their positions in a synchronized manner. We here show the synchronized spatial shifts between Walker and Hadley cells and further highlight a novel aspect of how tropical sea surface temperature anomalies can couple these two circulations. The re-positioning has important implications for extratropical rainfall.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 63–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021, 2021
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We demonstrate here that a single physical phenomenon, specifically, a naturally changing balance between intensities of temperature advection and diffusion in the viscous ice media, may influence the entire spectrum of the Pleistocene variability from orbital to millennial timescales.
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1195–1208, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1195-2020, 2020
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With the development of computer capacities, simpler models like energy balance models have not disappeared, and a stronger emphasis has been given to the concept of a hierarchy of models. The global temperature is calculated by the radiation budget through the incoming energy from the Sun and the outgoing energy from the Earth. The argument that the temperature can be calculated by a simple radiation budget is revisited, and it is found that the effective heat capacity matters.
Benjamin Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 721–735, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-721-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-721-2020, 2020
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Here, we assess the degree to which the idealized responses to transient forcing increase and step change forcing increase relate to warming under future scenarios. We find a possible explanation for the poor performance of transient metrics (relative to equilibrium response) as a metric of high-emission future warming in terms of their sensitivity to non-equilibrated initial conditions, and propose alternative metrics which better describe warming under high mitigation scenarios.
Benjamin Sanderson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 563–577, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-563-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-563-2020, 2020
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Levels of future temperature change are often used interchangeably with carbon budget allowances in climate policy, a relatively robust relationship on the timescale of this century. However, recent advances in understanding underline that continued warming after net-zero emissions have been achieved cannot be ruled out by observations of warming to date. We consider here how such behavior could be constrained and how policy can be framed in the context of these uncertainties.
Jonathan F. Donges, Jobst Heitzig, Wolfram Barfuss, Marc Wiedermann, Johannes A. Kassel, Tim Kittel, Jakob J. Kolb, Till Kolster, Finn Müller-Hansen, Ilona M. Otto, Kilian B. Zimmerer, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 395–413, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020, 2020
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We present an open-source software framework for developing so-called
world–Earth modelsthat link physical, chemical and biological processes with social, economic and cultural processes to study the Earth system's future trajectories in the Anthropocene. Due to its modular structure, the software allows interdisciplinary studies of global change and sustainable development that combine stylized model components from Earth system science, climatology, economics, ecology and sociology.
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 281–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-281-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-281-2020, 2020
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Using the central theorem of dimensional analysis, the π theorem, we show that the relationship between the amplitude and duration of glacial cycles is governed by a property of scale invariance that does not depend on the physical nature of the underlying positive and negative feedbacks incorporated by the system. It thus turns out to be one of the most fundamental properties of the Pleistocene climate.
Miguel D. Mahecha, Fabian Gans, Gunnar Brandt, Rune Christiansen, Sarah E. Cornell, Normann Fomferra, Guido Kraemer, Jonas Peters, Paul Bodesheim, Gustau Camps-Valls, Jonathan F. Donges, Wouter Dorigo, Lina M. Estupinan-Suarez, Victor H. Gutierrez-Velez, Martin Gutwin, Martin Jung, Maria C. Londoño, Diego G. Miralles, Phillip Papastefanou, and Markus Reichstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 201–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-201-2020, 2020
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The ever-growing availability of data streams on different subsystems of the Earth brings unprecedented scientific opportunities. However, researching a data-rich world brings novel challenges. We present the concept of
Earth system data cubesto study the complex dynamics of multiple climate and ecosystem variables across space and time. Using a series of example studies, we highlight the potential of effectively considering the full multivariate nature of processes in the Earth system.
Christine Ramadhin and Chuixiang Yi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 13–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-13-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-13-2020, 2020
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Here we explore ancient climate transitions from warm periods to ice ages and from ice ages to warm periods of the last 400 000 years. The changeovers from warm to ice age conditions are slower than those from ice age to warm conditions. We propose the presence of strong negative sea–ice feedbacks may be responsible for slowing the transition from warm to full ice age conditions. By improving understanding of past abrupt changes, we may have improved knowledge of future system behavior.
M. Levent Kavvas, Tongbi Tu, Ali Ercan, and James Polsinelli
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1-2020, 2020
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After deriving a fractional continuity equation, a previously-developed equation for water flux in porous media was combined with the Dupuit approximation to obtain an equation for groundwater motion in multi-fractional space in unconfined aquifers. As demonstrated in the numerical application, the orders of the fractional space and time derivatives modulate the speed of groundwater table evolution, slowing the process with the decrease in the powers of the fractional derivatives from 1.
Krishna-Pillai Sukumara-Pillai Krishnamohan, Govindasamy Bala, Long Cao, Lei Duan, and Ken Caldeira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 885–900, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-885-2019, 2019
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We find that sulfate aerosols are more effective in cooling the climate system when they reside higher in the stratosphere. We explain this sensitivity in terms of radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere. Sulfate aerosols heat the stratospheric layers, causing an increase in stratospheric water vapor content and a reduction in high clouds. These changes are larger when aerosols are prescribed near the tropopause, offsetting part of the aerosol-induced negative radiative forcing/cooling.
Davide Faranda, Yuzuru Sato, Gabriele Messori, Nicholas R. Moloney, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 555–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-555-2019, 2019
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We show how the complex dynamics of the jet stream at midlatitude can be described by a simple mathematical model. We match the properties of the model to those obtained by the jet data derived from observations.
Stefanie Talento, Lea Schneider, Johannes Werner, and Jürg Luterbacher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 347–364, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-347-2019, 2019
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Quantifying hydroclimate variability beyond the instrumental period is essential for putting fluctuations into long-term perspective and providing a validation for climate models. We evaluate, in a virtual setup, the potential for generating millennium-long summer precipitation reconstructions over south-eastern Asia.
We find that performing a real-world reconstruction with the current available proxy network is indeed feasible, as virtual-world reconstructions are skilful in most areas.
Lennert B. Stap, Peter Köhler, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 333–345, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-333-2019, 2019
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Processes causing the same global-average radiative forcing might lead to different global temperature changes. We expand the theoretical framework by which we calculate paleoclimate sensitivity with an efficacy factor. Applying the revised approach to radiative forcing caused by CO2 and land ice albedo perturbations, inferred from data of the past 800 000 years, gives a new paleo-based estimate of climate sensitivity.
Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Raquel Nieto, Marta Vázquez, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 121–133, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-121-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-121-2019, 2019
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Ice melting at the scale of inter-annual fluctuations against the trend is favoured by an increase in moisture transport in summer, autumn, and winter and a decrease in spring. On a daily basis extreme humidity transport increases the formation of ice in winter and decreases it in spring, summer, and autumn; in these three seasons it thus contributes to Arctic sea ice melting. These patterns differ sharply from that linked to decline, especially in summer when the opposite trend applies.
Iago Algarra, Jorge Eiras-Barca, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, Raquel Nieto, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 107–119, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-107-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-107-2019, 2019
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We analyse moisture transport triggered by the Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ), a maximum in wind speed fields located within the first kilometre of the US Great Plain's troposphere, through the innovative Eulerian Weather Research and Forecasting Model tracer tool. Much moisture associated with this low-level jet has been found in northern regions located in a vast extension of the continent, highlighting the key role played by the GPLLJ in North America's advective transport of moisture.
Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1279–1281, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1279-2018, 2018
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Long-term sea surface temperature trends and variability are underestimated in models compared to paleoclimate data. The idea is presented that the trends and variability are related, which is elaborated in a conceptual model framework. The temperature spectrum can be used to estimate the timescale-dependent climate sensitivity.
Mark M. Dekker, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1243–1260, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1243-2018, 2018
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We introduce a framework of cascading tipping, i.e. a sequence of abrupt transitions occurring because a transition in one system affects the background conditions of another system. Using bifurcation theory, various types of these events are considered and early warning indicators are suggested. An illustration of such an event is found in a conceptual model, coupling the North Atlantic Ocean with the equatorial Pacific. This demonstrates the possibility of events such as this in nature.
Uwe Mikolajewicz, Florian Ziemen, Guido Cioni, Martin Claussen, Klaus Fraedrich, Marvin Heidkamp, Cathy Hohenegger, Diego Jimenez de la Cuesta, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Alexander Lemburg, Thorsten Mauritsen, Katharina Meraner, Niklas Röber, Hauke Schmidt, Katharina D. Six, Irene Stemmler, Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, Alexander Winkler, Xiuhua Zhu, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1191–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018, 2018
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Model experiments show that changing the sense of Earth's rotation has relatively little impact on the globally and zonally averaged energy budgets but leads to large shifts in continental climates and patterns of precipitation. The retrograde world is greener as the desert area shrinks. Deep water formation shifts from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific with subsequent changes in ocean overturning. Over large areas of the Indian Ocean, cyanobacteria dominate over bulk phytoplankton.
Axel Kleidon and Maik Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1127–1140, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1127-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1127-2018, 2018
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Turbulent fluxes represent an efficient way to transport heat and moisture from the surface into the atmosphere. Due to their inherently highly complex nature, they are commonly described by semiempirical relationships. What we show here is that these fluxes can also be predicted by viewing them as the outcome of a heat engine that operates between the warm surface and the cooler atmosphere and that works at its limit.
Marc Schleiss
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 955–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-955-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-955-2018, 2018
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The present study aims at explaining how intermittency (i.e., the alternation of dry and rainy periods) affects the rate at which precipitation extremes increase with temperature. Using high-resolution rainfall data from 99 stations in the United States, we show that at scales beyond a few hours, intermittency causes rainfall extremes to deviate substantially from Clausius–Clapeyron. A new model is proposed to better represent and predict these changes across scales.
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Terje Berntsen, Magne Aldrin, Marit Holden, and Gunnar Myhre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 879–894, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-879-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-879-2018, 2018
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A key question in climate science is how the global mean surface temperature responds to changes in greenhouse gases. This dependency is quantified by the climate sensitivity, which is determined by the complex feedbacks in the climate system. In this study observations of past climate change are used to estimate this sensitivity. Our estimate is consistent with values for the equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by complex climate models but sensitive to the use of uncertain input data.
Dieter Gerten, Martin Schönfeld, and Bernhard Schauberger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 849–863, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-849-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-849-2018, 2018
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Cultural processes are underrepresented in Earth system models, although they decisively shape humanity’s planetary imprint. We set forth ideas on how Earth system analysis can be enriched by formalising aspects of religion (understood broadly as a collective belief in things held sacred). We sketch possible modelling avenues (extensions of existing Earth system models and new co-evolutionary models) and suggest research primers to explicate and quantify mental aspects of the Anthropocene.
Stefan Lange
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 627–645, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-627-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-627-2018, 2018
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The bias correction of surface downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation using parametric quantile mapping methods is shown to be more effective (i) at the daily than at the monthly timescale, (ii) if the spatial resolution gap between the reference data and the data to be corrected is bridged in a more suitable manner than by bilinear interpolation, and (iii) if physical upper limits are taken into account during the adjustment of either radiation component.
Camilla Mathison, Chetan Deva, Pete Falloon, and Andrew J. Challinor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 563–592, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-563-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-563-2018, 2018
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Sowing and harvest dates are a significant source of uncertainty within crop models. South Asia is one region with a large uncertainty. We aim to provide more accurate sowing and harvest dates than currently available and that are relevant for climate impact assessments. This method reproduces the present day sowing and harvest dates for most parts of India and when applied to two future periods provides a useful way of modelling potential growing season adaptations to changes in future climate.
Dario A. Zappalà, Marcelo Barreiro, and Cristina Masoller
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 383–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-383-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-383-2018, 2018
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The dynamics of our climate involves multiple timescales, and while a lot of work has been devoted to quantifying variations in time-averaged variables or variations in their seasonal cycles, variations in daily variability that occur over several decades still remain poorly understood. Here we analyse daily surface air temperature and demonstrate that inter-decadal changes can be precisely identified and quantified with the Hilbert analysis tool.
Nadine Mengis, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 15–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-15-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-15-2018, 2018
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The Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) method applies statistical information to systematically select, transparent, nonredundant indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the Earth system state. We show that due to changing climate forcing, such as anthropogenic climate change, the ad hoc assessment indicators might need to be reevaluated. Within an iterative process, this method would allow us to select scientifically consistent and societally relevant assessment indicators.
Liga Bethere, Juris Sennikovs, and Uldis Bethers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 951–962, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-951-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-951-2017, 2017
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We define three new climate indices based on monthly mean temperature and total precipitation values that describe the main features of the climate in the Baltic states. Higher values in each index correspond to (1) less distinct seasonality and (2) warmer and (3) wetter climate. It was calculated that in the future all three indices will increase. Such indices summarize and illustrate the spatial features of the Baltic climate, and they can be used in further analysis of climate change impact.
Tongbi Tu, Ali Ercan, and M. Levent Kavvas
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 931–949, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-931-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-931-2017, 2017
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Groundwater level fluctuations in confined aquifer wells with long observations exhibit site-specific fractal scaling behavior, and the underlying distribution exhibits either non-Gaussian characteristics, which may be fitted by the Lévy stable distribution, or Gaussian characteristics. The estimated Hurst exponent is highly dependent on the length and the specific time interval of the time series. The MF-DFA and MMA analyses showed that different levels of multifractality exist.
Axel Kleidon and Maik Renner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 849–864, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-849-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-849-2017, 2017
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We provide an explanation why land temperatures respond more strongly to global warming than ocean temperatures, a robust finding in observations and models that has so far not been understood well. We explain it by the different ways by which ocean and land surfaces buffer the strong variation in solar radiation and demonstrate this with a simple, physically based model. Our explanation also illustrates why nighttime temperatures warm more strongly, another robust finding of global warming.
Milan Flach, Fabian Gans, Alexander Brenning, Joachim Denzler, Markus Reichstein, Erik Rodner, Sebastian Bathiany, Paul Bodesheim, Yanira Guanche, Sebastian Sippel, and Miguel D. Mahecha
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 677–696, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-677-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-677-2017, 2017
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Anomalies and extremes are often detected using univariate peak-over-threshold approaches in the geoscience community. The Earth system is highly multivariate. We compare eight multivariate anomaly detection algorithms and combinations of data preprocessing. We identify three anomaly detection algorithms that outperform univariate extreme event detection approaches. The workflows have the potential to reveal novelties in data. Remarks on their application to real Earth observations are provided.
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Global temperature now exceeds +1.25 °C relative to 1880–1920, similar to warmth of the Eemian period. Keeping warming less than 1.5 °C or CO2 below 350 ppm now requires extraction of CO2 from the air. If rapid phaseout of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, most extraction can be via improved agricultural and forestry practices. In contrast, continued high emissions places a burden on young people of massive technological CO2 extraction with large risks, high costs and uncertain feasibility.
Global temperature now exceeds +1.25 °C relative to 1880–1920, similar to warmth of the Eemian...
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