Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024
Review
 | Highlight paper
 | 
19 Aug 2024
Review | Highlight paper |  | 19 Aug 2024

Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems

Vasilis Dakos, Chris A. Boulton, Joshua E. Buxton, Jesse F. Abrams, Beatriz Arellano-Nava, David I. Armstrong McKay, Sebastian Bathiany, Lana Blaschke, Niklas Boers, Daniel Dylewsky, Carlos López-Martínez, Isobel Parry, Paul Ritchie, Bregje van der Bolt, Larissa van der Laan, Els Weinans, and Sonia Kéfi

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Cited articles

Abis, B. and Brovkin, V.: Alternative tree-cover states of the boreal ecosystem: A conceptual model, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 28, 612–627, https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12880, 2019. 
Alberto, J., Stelzer, A., Padric, J., Adrian, R., and Willem, B.: Early warning signals of regime shifts for aquatic systems: Can experiments help to bridge the gap between theory and real-world application?, Ecol. Complex., 47, 100944, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2021.100944, 2021. 
AlMomani, A. A. and Bollt, E.: An early warning sign of critical transition in the Antarctic ice sheet – a data-driven tool for a spatiotemporal tipping point, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 28, 153–166, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-28-153-2021, 2021. 
Ashwin, P., Wieczorek, S., Vitolo, R., and Cox, P.: Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 13, 20, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0306, 2011. 
Bathiany, S., Claussen, M., and Fraedrich, K.: Detecting hotspots of atmosphere–vegetation interaction via slowing down – Part 1: A stochastic approach, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 63–78, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-63-2013, 2013. 
Chief editor
The paper gives a comprehensive overview on the current state of the societally important field of Earth system tipping point early warning signals across different fields. Relevant conclusions are drawn on promising avenues for further advancing the research field.
Short summary
Tipping points are abrupt, rapid, and sometimes irreversible changes, and numerous approaches have been proposed to detect them in advance. Such approaches have been termed early warning signals and represent a set of methods for identifying changes in the underlying behaviour of a system across time or space that might indicate an approaching tipping point. Here, we review the literature to explore where, how, and which early warnings have been used in real-world case studies so far.
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