Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems
Vasilis Dakos
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
ISEM, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, 34095 Montpellier, France
Chris A. Boulton
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Joshua E. Buxton
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Jesse F. Abrams
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Beatriz Arellano-Nava
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
David I. Armstrong McKay
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Sebastian Bathiany
Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany
Lana Blaschke
Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Niklas Boers
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Daniel Dylewsky
Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
Carlos López-Martínez
Signal Theory and Communications Dept., Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya UPC, Barcelona, Spain
Institut d'Estudis Espacials de Catalunya IEEC, Barcelona, Spain
Isobel Parry
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Paul Ritchie
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Bregje van der Bolt
Environmental Sciences Group, Water Systems and Global Change, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Larissa van der Laan
Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
Els Weinans
Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Geoscience, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Sonia Kéfi
ISEM, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, 34095 Montpellier, France
Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA
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Cited
Latest update: 31 Aug 2024
Chief editor
The paper gives a comprehensive overview on the current state of the societally important field of Earth system tipping point early warning signals across different fields. Relevant conclusions are drawn on promising avenues for further advancing the research field.
The paper gives a comprehensive overview on the current state of the societally important field...
Short summary
Tipping points are abrupt, rapid, and sometimes irreversible changes, and numerous approaches have been proposed to detect them in advance. Such approaches have been termed early warning signals and represent a set of methods for identifying changes in the underlying behaviour of a system across time or space that might indicate an approaching tipping point. Here, we review the literature to explore where, how, and which early warnings have been used in real-world case studies so far.
Tipping points are abrupt, rapid, and sometimes irreversible changes, and numerous approaches...
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