Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1117-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems
Vasilis Dakos
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
ISEM, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, 34095 Montpellier, France
Chris A. Boulton
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Joshua E. Buxton
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Jesse F. Abrams
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Beatriz Arellano-Nava
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
David I. Armstrong McKay
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Sebastian Bathiany
Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany
Lana Blaschke
Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Niklas Boers
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University Munich, Munich, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Daniel Dylewsky
Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
Carlos López-Martínez
Signal Theory and Communications Dept., Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya UPC, Barcelona, Spain
Institut d'Estudis Espacials de Catalunya IEEC, Barcelona, Spain
Isobel Parry
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Paul Ritchie
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Bregje van der Bolt
Environmental Sciences Group, Water Systems and Global Change, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Larissa van der Laan
Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
Els Weinans
Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Geoscience, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Sonia Kéfi
ISEM, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, 34095 Montpellier, France
Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, NM 87501, USA
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- A method to identify positive tipping points to accelerate low-carbon transitions and actions to trigger them T. Lenton et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-025-01704-9
- Exploring geographical modal and its implications to support geographical integration Z. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2026.04.011
- A simple dynamical system for representing climate tipping points with hysteresis C. Huntingford et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-33-385-2026
- Unified description model and typology classification of coastal tipping points Z. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-025-1698-8
- Surviving the winds through pattern formation: Mathematical modelling of heather stripes in Scotland T. Vignal et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.70170
- Integrating tipping point concepts across diverse systems J. Abrams et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44458-026-00063-5
- Hydroclimate forcing and anthropogenic impacts trigger an early (∼1650 cal yr BP) regime shift in Chenghai Lake (China) Q. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2025.109726
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- Eco-evolutionary decoupling drives silent ecosystem collapse in the Anthropocene D. Mosoh https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2026.1765410
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- Neural models for prediction of spatially patterned phase transitions: methods and challenges D. Dylewsky et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-025-00615-w
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- Environmental Tipping Points in Human-Dominated Landscapes: A Cross-Ecosystem Review of Early Warning Signals M. Rinaldi et al. https://doi.org/10.51847/0JwIr5iJ2E
- Ecosystem Experiments: How Does Manipulation Rate Affect Indicators of Resilience? W. Brock et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-025-01042-y
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- Exploring nonlinear drought dynamics through stress, resilience, and tipping transitions using a non-autonomous dynamical systems framework with CMIP6 projections H. Ullah et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-026-03317-9
- Water availability regulates abrupt shifts in global terrestrial vegetation productivity by reducing resilience M. Wei et al. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2025.3118
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- Identifying fish populations prone to abrupt shifts via dynamical footprint analysis A. Cano et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2505461122
- Scenario-driven spatiotemporal modeling of nonlinear drought dynamics and systemic risks using CMIP6 data H. Ullah et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2026.104477
- Exploring to predict the tipping points in traffic flow: A lightweight spatio-temporal information-enhanced neural point process approach G. Jin et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2025.131122
- Beyond data silos: federated governance as legal response to planetary ecological collapse J. Rodríguez Álvarez https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-026-09718-z
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- Modeling Forest Growth Under Current and Future Climate I. Boukhris et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40725-025-00249-5
- 海岸带临界点统一描述模型及类型划分 肇. 俞 et al. https://doi.org/10.1360/SSTe-2025-0136
- Robust projections of risks to the Amazon rainforest C. Huntingford https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-026-01158-8
- Conditions for skilful spatial and temporal tipping point early warning signals J. Clarke et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/ae6217
- Nature-based Solutions in Cold Arid Landscapes: Opportunities for Integrated Land, Water, and Livelihood Resilience B. Shakya & B. Sharma https://doi.org/10.56093/aaz.v65i2.177113
- Temperature as an early warning signal of honeybee colony failure T. Colin et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2025.103445
- Temperature and water availability drive vegetation resilience dynamics in China: An empirical study from causal perspective J. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-025-2403-7
- UAV-based deep learning for biodiversity monitoring: Advances, applications, and future directions S. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2026.103710
- Hydroclimatic Whiplash Across the Contiguous United States: Characterizing Wet–Dry Transitions in PDSI and PHDI J. Lam & T. Piechota https://doi.org/10.3390/w18131599
- Disentangling the effects of climate change in a mountain lake through community structure analysis G. Bertoletti et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.70106
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Editorial statement
The paper gives a comprehensive overview on the current state of the societally important field of Earth system tipping point early warning signals across different fields. Relevant conclusions are drawn on promising avenues for further advancing the research field.
The paper gives a comprehensive overview on the current state of the societally important field...
Short summary
Tipping points are abrupt, rapid, and sometimes irreversible changes, and numerous approaches have been proposed to detect them in advance. Such approaches have been termed early warning signals and represent a set of methods for identifying changes in the underlying behaviour of a system across time or space that might indicate an approaching tipping point. Here, we review the literature to explore where, how, and which early warnings have been used in real-world case studies so far.
Tipping points are abrupt, rapid, and sometimes irreversible changes, and numerous approaches...
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