We produced one of the largest single model initial-condition ensembles thus far using the MIROC6 coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model (MIROC6-LE). MIROC6-LE includes historical simulations, eight single forcing historical experiments, five future scenario experiments and three single forcing future experiments with 10- or 50-ensemble members. We describe the experimental design and show initial analyses. This dataset would be useful to a wide range of research communities.

Our study focuses on Chile, which is affected by the prevailing ocean currents, upwellings and El Niño; these generate the weather in Chile. That is why we conducted a study on the dynamics of this system using spectral and nonlinear analysis techniques. We obtained periodicities related to internal and external forcing; we find that the dynamics is not chaotic but nonlinear. Finally, the northern part presents a strong correlation between ONI and LLE due to regional characteristics.

The Arctic is warming several times faster than the rest of the planet. Here, we use climate model projections to quantify for the first time how this faster warming in the Arctic impacts the timing of crossing the 1.5 °C and 2 °C thresholds defined in the Paris Agreement. We show that under plausible emissions scenarios that fail to meet the Paris 1.5 °C target, a hypothetical world without faster warming in the Arctic would breach that 1.5 °C target around 5 years later.

The worsening effects of climate change and other environmental problems impact the ability of societies to tackle the causes of these problems. We term this "derailment risk": the risk that the path to re-stabilising the natural world is derailed by the worsening instability of societies. But, conversely, instability can also provide opportunities for positive change. Acting on derailment risk is needed to ensure positive change can win out and so is critical for avoiding catastrophic outcomes.

We present model-based topographic sensitivity experiments that provide valuable constraints for interpreting past proxies and records of climate and tectonic processes. The study uses a climate model to quantify the response of regional climate and oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation to diachronous surface uplift scenarios across the European Alps. The results suggest that isotopic signal changes can be measured in geologic archives using stable isotope paleoaltimetry.

Ecosystem resistance reflects their susceptibility during adverse conditions and can be changed by land management. We estimate ecosystem resistance to drought and temperature globally. We find a higher resistance to drought in forests compared to croplands and an evident loss of resistance to drought when primary forests are converted to secondary forests or they are harvested. Old-growth trees tend to be more resistant in some forests and crops benefit from irrigation during drought periods.

Vegetation largely controls land hydrology by transporting water from the subsurface to the atmosphere through roots and is highly variable in space and time. However, current land surface models have limitations in capturing this variability at a global scale, limiting accurate modeling of land hydrology. We found that satellite-based vegetation variability considerably improved modeled land hydrology and therefore has potential to improve climate predictions of, for example, droughts.