Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-797-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-797-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
Research article
 | 
16 Aug 2023
Research article |  | 16 Aug 2023

Role of mean and variability change in changes in European annual and seasonal extreme precipitation events

Raul R. Wood

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Cited articles

Aalbers, E. E., Lenderink, G., van Meijgaard, E., and van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.: Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?, Clim. Dynam., 50, 4745–4766, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3901-9, 2018. 
Aalbers, E. E., van Meijgaard, E., Lenderink, G., de Vries, H., and van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.: The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1921–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, 2023. 
Addor, N. and Fischer, E. M.: The influence of natural variability and interpolation errors on bias characterization in RCM simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 10180–10195, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022824, 2015. 
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Arora, V. K., Scinocca, J. F., Boer, G. J., Christian, J. R., Denman, K. L., Flato, G. M., Kharin, V. V., Lee, W. G., and Merryfield, W. J.: Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05805, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046270, 2011. 
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The change in extreme-event occurrence is influenced by both a shift in the mean and a change in variability. How large the individual contributions are remains largely unknown. Large-ensemble climate simulations and probability risk ratio are used to partition the change in extreme precipitation events into contributions from a change in the mean and variability. The results reveal that the change in variability can be equally as important as or even more important than the mean change.
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