Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-797-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-797-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 14, issue 4
Research article
 | 
16 Aug 2023
Research article |  | 16 Aug 2023

Role of mean and variability change in changes in European annual and seasonal extreme precipitation events

Raul R. Wood

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Latest update: 02 Nov 2025
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Short summary
The change in extreme-event occurrence is influenced by both a shift in the mean and a change in variability. How large the individual contributions are remains largely unknown. Large-ensemble climate simulations and probability risk ratio are used to partition the change in extreme precipitation events into contributions from a change in the mean and variability. The results reveal that the change in variability can be equally as important as or even more important than the mean change.
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