Role of mean and variability change in  changes in European annual and seasonal extreme precipitation events

Wood, Raul R.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-797-2023

Articles | Volume 14, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-797-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-797-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 14, issue 4

Research article

|

16 Aug 2023

Research article |

| 16 Aug 2023

Role of mean and variability change in changes in European annual and seasonal extreme precipitation events

Raul R. Wood

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-797-2023-supplement

Data sets

CRCM5-LE ClimEx Ouranos https://www.climex-project.org/en/data-access

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Short summary

The change in extreme-event occurrence is influenced by both a shift in the mean and a change in variability. How large the individual contributions are remains largely unknown. Large-ensemble climate simulations and probability risk ratio are used to partition the change in extreme precipitation events into contributions from a change in the mean and variability. The results reveal that the change in variability can be equally as important as or even more important than the mean change.