Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
30 Mar 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 30 Mar 2021

Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services

Anita D. Bayer, Richard Fuchs, Reinhard Mey, Andreas Krause, Peter H. Verburg, Peter Anthoni, and Almut Arneth

Related authors

Assessing the impacts of agricultural managements on soil carbon stocks, nitrogen loss, and crop production – a modelling study in eastern Africa
Jianyong Ma, Sam S. Rabin, Peter Anthoni, Anita D. Bayer, Sylvia S. Nyawira, Stefan Olin, Longlong Xia, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 19, 2145–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2145-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2145-2022, 2022
Short summary
Modeling symbiotic biological nitrogen fixation in grain legumes globally with LPJ-GUESS (v4.0, r10285)
Jianyong Ma, Stefan Olin, Peter Anthoni, Sam S. Rabin, Anita D. Bayer, Sylvia S. Nyawira, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 815–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Global consequences of afforestation and bioenergy cultivation on ecosystem service indicators
Andreas Krause, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Anita D. Bayer, Jonathan C. Doelman, Florian Humpenöder, Peter Anthoni, Stefan Olin, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Alexander Popp, Elke Stehfest, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 14, 4829–4850, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4829-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4829-2017, 2017
Short summary
Uncertainties in the land-use flux resulting from land-use change reconstructions and gross land transitions
Anita D. Bayer, Mats Lindeskog, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Peter M. Anthoni, Richard Fuchs, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 91–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017, 2017
Short summary
Impacts of land-use history on the recovery of ecosystems after agricultural abandonment
Andreas Krause, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Anita D. Bayer, Mats Lindeskog, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 745–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-745-2016,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-745-2016, 2016
Short summary

Related subject area

Earth system interactions with the biosphere: ecosystems
Opening Pandora's box: reducing global circulation model uncertainty in Australian simulations of the carbon cycle
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Gab Abramowitz, Andrew J. Pitman, Anna M. Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Bastien François, and Benjamin Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 549–576, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023, 2023
Short summary
Persistent La Niñas drive joint soybean harvest failures in North and South America
Raed Hamed, Sem Vijverberg, Anne F. Van Loon, Jeroen Aerts, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 255–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023, 2023
Short summary
Spatiotemporal changes in the boreal forest in Siberia over the period 1985–2015 against the background of climate change
Wenxue Fu, Lei Tian, Yu Tao, Mingyang Li, and Huadong Guo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 223–239, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-223-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-223-2023, 2023
Short summary
Downscaling of climate change scenarios for a high-resolution, site-specific assessment of drought stress risk for two viticultural regions with heterogeneous landscapes
Marco Hofmann, Claudia Volosciuk, Martin Dubrovský, Douglas Maraun, and Hans R. Schultz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 911–934, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-911-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-911-2022, 2022
Short summary
Global climate change and the Baltic Sea ecosystem: direct and indirect effects on species, communities and ecosystem functioning
Markku Viitasalo and Erik Bonsdorff
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 711–747, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-711-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-711-2022, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Ahlström, A., Schurgers, G., Arneth, A., and Smith, B.: Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 044008-10, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044008, 2012. 
Aleman, J. C., Blarquez, O., and Staver, C. A.: Land-use change outweighs projected effects of changing rainfall on tree cover in sub-Saharan Africa, Global Change Biol., 22, 3013–3025, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13299, 2016. 
Alexander, P., Rabin, S., Anthoni, P., Henry, R., Pugh, T. A. M., Rounsevell, M. D. A., and Arneth, A.: Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide, Global Change Biol., 24, 2791–2809, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14110, 2018. 
Download
Short summary
Many projections of future land-use/-cover exist. We evaluate a number of these and determine the variability they cause in ecosystems and their services. We found that projections differ a lot in regional patterns, with some patterns being at least questionable in a historical context. Across ecosystem service indicators, resulting variability until 2040 was highest in crop production. Results emphasize that such variability should be acknowledged in assessments of future ecosystem provisions.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint