Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
30 Mar 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 30 Mar 2021
| 30 Mar 2021
Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services
Anita D. Bayer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Richard Fuchs
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Reinhard Mey
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Andreas Krause
Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, 85354 Freising, Germany
Peter H. Verburg
Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, 1081HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Peter Anthoni
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Almut Arneth
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Related authors
Jianyong Ma, Sam S. Rabin, Peter Anthoni, Anita D. Bayer, Sylvia S. Nyawira, Stefan Olin, Longlong Xia, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 19, 2145–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2145-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2145-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Improved agricultural management plays a vital role in protecting soils from degradation in eastern Africa. We simulated the impacts of seven management practices on soil carbon pools, nitrogen loss, and crop yield under different climate scenarios in this region. This study highlights the possibilities of conservation agriculture when targeting long-term environmental sustainability and food security in crop ecosystems, particularly for those with poor soil conditions in tropical climates.
Jianyong Ma, Stefan Olin, Peter Anthoni, Sam S. Rabin, Anita D. Bayer, Sylvia S. Nyawira, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 815–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The implementation of the biological N fixation process in LPJ-GUESS in this study provides an opportunity to quantify N fixation rates between legumes and to better estimate grain legume production on a global scale. It also helps to predict and detect the potential contribution of N-fixing plants as
green manureto reducing or removing the use of N fertilizer in global agricultural systems, considering different climate conditions, management practices, and land-use change scenarios.
Andreas Krause, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Anita D. Bayer, Jonathan C. Doelman, Florian Humpenöder, Peter Anthoni, Stefan Olin, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Alexander Popp, Elke Stehfest, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 14, 4829–4850, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4829-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4829-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Many climate change mitigation scenarios require negative emissions from land management. However, environmental side effects are often not considered. Here, we use projections of future land use from two land-use models as input to a vegetation model. We show that carbon removal via bioenergy production or forest maintenance and expansion affect a range of ecosystem functions. Largest impacts are found for crop production, nitrogen losses, and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds.
Anita D. Bayer, Mats Lindeskog, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Peter M. Anthoni, Richard Fuchs, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 91–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on carbon pools and fluxes using a dynamic global vegetation model. Different historical reconstructions yielded an uncertainty of ca. ±30 % in the mean annual land use emission over the last decades. Accounting for the parallel expansion and abandonment of croplands on a sub-grid level (tropical shifting cultivation) substantially increased the effect of land use on carbon stocks and fluxes compared to only accounting for net effects.
Andreas Krause, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Anita D. Bayer, Mats Lindeskog, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 745–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-745-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-745-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We used a vegetation model to study the legacy effects of different land-use histories on ecosystem recovery in a range of environmental conditions. We found that recovery trajectories are crucially influenced by type and duration of former agricultural land use, especially for soil carbon. Spatially, we found the greatest sensitivity to land-use history in boreal forests and subtropical grasslands. These results are relevant for measurements, climate modeling and afforestation projects.
Benjamin Franklin Meyer, João Paulo Darela-Filho, Konstantin Gregor, Allan Buras, Qiao-Lin Gu, Andreas Krause, Daijun Liu, Phillip Papastefanou, Sijeh Asuk, Thorsten E. E. Grams, Christian S. Zang, and Anja Rammig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3352, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change has increased the likelihood of drought events across Europe, potentially threatening European forest carbon sink. Dynamic vegetation models with mechanistic plant hydraulic architecture are needed to model these developments. We evaluate the plant hydraulic architecture version of LPJ-GUESS and show it's capability at capturing species-specific evapotranspiration responses to drought and reproducing flux observations of both gross primary production and evapotranspiration.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-519, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-519, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2024 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2024). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Friedrich J. Bohn, Ana Bastos, Romina Martin, Anja Rammig, Niak Sian Koh, Giles B. Sioen, Bram Buscher, Louise Carver, Fabrice DeClerck, Moritz Drupp, Robert Fletcher, Matthew Forrest, Alexandros Gasparatos, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Gregor Hagedorn, Martin Hänsel, Jessica Hetzer, Thomas Hickler, Cornelia B. Krug, Stasja Koot, Xiuzhen Li, Amy Luers, Shelby Matevich, H. Damon Matthews, Ina C. Meier, Awaz Mohamed, Sungmin O, David Obura, Ben Orlove, Rene Orth, Laura Pereira, Markus Reichstein, Lerato Thakholi, Peter Verburg, and Yuki Yoshida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2551, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An interdisciplinary collaboration of 35 international researchers from 34 institutions highlighting nine recent findings in biosphere research. Within these themes, they discuss issues arising from climate change and other anthropogenic stressors, and highlight the co-benefits of nature-based solutions and ecosystem services. They discuss recent findings in the context of global trade and international policy frameworks, and highlight lessons for local implementation of nature-based solutions.
Jens Krause, Peter Anthoni, Mike Harfoot, Moritz Kupisch, and Almut Arneth
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1646, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
While animal biodiversity is facing a global crisis as more and more species are becoming endangered or extinct, the role of animals for the functioning of ecosystems is still not fully understood. We contribute to bridging this gap by coupling a animal population model with a vegetation and thus enable future research in this topic.
Lucia S. Layritz, Konstantin Gregor, Andreas Krause, Stefan Kruse, Ben F. Meyer, Tom A. M. Pugh, and Anja Rammig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1028, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1028, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Disturbances (e.g. fire) can change which species grow in a forest, affecting water, carbon, energy flows, and the climate. They are expected to increase with climate change, but it is uncertain by how much. We studied how future climate and disturbances might impact vegetation with a simulation model. Our findings highlight the importance of considering both factors, with future disturbance patterns posing significant uncertainty. More research is needed to understand their future development.
Gab Abramowitz, Anna Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Jon Cranko Page, Mathew Lipson, Martin De Kauwe, Sam Green, Claire Brenner, Jonathan Frame, Grey Nearing, Martyn Clark, Martin Best, Peter Anthoni, Gabriele Arduini, Souhail Boussetta, Silvia Caldararu, Kyeungwoo Cho, Matthias Cuntz, David Fairbairn, Craig Ferguson, Hyungjun Kim, Yeonjoo Kim, Jürgen Knauer, David Lawrence, Xiangzhong Luo, Sergey Malyshev, Tomoko Nitta, Jerome Ogee, Keith Oleson, Catherine Ottlé, Phillipe Peylin, Patricia de Rosnay, Heather Rumbold, Bob Su, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony Walker, Xiaoni Wang-Faivre, Yunfei Wang, and Yijian Zeng
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3084, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3084, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates land models – computer based models that simulate ecosystem dynamics, the land carbon, water and energy cycles and the role of land in the climate system. It uses machine learning / AI approaches to show that despite the complexity of land models, they do not perform nearly as well as they could, given the amount of information they are provided with about the prediction problem.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Bertrand Decharme, Laurent Bopp, Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika, Patricia Cadule, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Thi-Tuyet-Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Xinyu Dou, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Daniel J. Ford, Thomas Gasser, Josefine Ghattas, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Fortunat Joos, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Xin Lan, Nathalie Lefèvre, Hongmei Li, Junjie Liu, Zhiqiang Liu, Lei Ma, Greg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick C. McGuire, Galen A. McKinley, Gesa Meyer, Eric J. Morgan, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin M. O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Melf Paulsen, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Carter M. Powis, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen M. Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Erik van Ooijen, Rik Wanninkhof, Michio Watanabe, Cathy Wimart-Rousseau, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5301–5369, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2023 describes the methodology, main results, and data sets used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land ecosystems, and the ocean over the historical period (1750–2023). These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Matthew J. McGrath, Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu, Philippe Peylin, Robbie M. Andrew, Bradley Matthews, Frank Dentener, Juraj Balkovič, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Gregoire Broquet, Philippe Ciais, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Giacomo Grassi, Ian Harris, Matthew Jones, Jürgen Knauer, Matthias Kuhnert, Guillaume Monteil, Saqr Munassar, Paul I. Palmer, Glen P. Peters, Chunjing Qiu, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Oksana Tarasova, Matteo Vizzarri, Karina Winkler, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Antoine Berchet, Peter Briggs, Patrick Brockmann, Frédéric Chevallier, Giulia Conchedda, Monica Crippa, Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Sara Filipek, Pierre Friedlingstein, Richard Fuchs, Michael Gauss, Christoph Gerbig, Diego Guizzardi, Dirk Günther, Richard A. Houghton, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Ronny Lauerwald, Bas Lerink, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Géraud Moulas, Marilena Muntean, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Aurélie Paquirissamy, Lucia Perugini, Wouter Peters, Roberto Pilli, Julia Pongratz, Pierre Regnier, Marko Scholze, Yusuf Serengil, Pete Smith, Efisio Solazzo, Rona L. Thompson, Francesco N. Tubiello, Timo Vesala, and Sophia Walther
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4295–4370, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4295-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate estimation of fluxes of carbon dioxide from the land surface is essential for understanding future impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system. A wide variety of methods currently exist to estimate these sources and sinks. We are continuing work to develop annual comparisons of these diverse methods in order to clarify what they all actually calculate and to resolve apparent disagreement, in addition to highlighting opportunities for increased understanding.
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, Almut Arneth, Stefanie Falk, Atul K. Jain, Fortunat Joos, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Stephen Sitch, Michael O'Sullivan, Naiqing Pan, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Nicolas Vuichard, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 767–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-767-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-767-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrogen (N) is an essential limiting nutrient to terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration. We evaluate N cycling in an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models. We find that variability in N processes across models is large. Models tended to overestimate C storage per unit N in vegetation and soil, which could have consequences for projecting the future terrestrial C sink. However, N cycling measurements are highly uncertain, and more are necessary to guide the development of N cycling in models.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Ramdane Alkama, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Wiley Evans, Stefanie Falk, Richard A. Feely, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Lucas Gloege, Giacomo Grassi, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Annika Jersild, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Keith Lindsay, Junjie Liu, Zhu Liu, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Matthew J. McGrath, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, David R. Munro, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Naiqing Pan, Denis Pierrot, Katie Pocock, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Carmen Rodriguez, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Jamie D. Shutler, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Shintaro Takao, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Xiangjun Tian, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Chris Whitehead, Anna Willstrand Wranne, Rebecca Wright, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Jiye Zeng, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2022 describes the datasets and methodology used to quantify the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, the land ecosystems, and the ocean. These living datasets are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
David Martín Belda, Peter Anthoni, David Wårlind, Stefan Olin, Guy Schurgers, Jing Tang, Benjamin Smith, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6709–6745, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6709-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6709-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a number of augmentations to the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS, which will allow us to use it in studies of the interactions between the land biosphere and the climate. The new module enables calculation of fluxes of energy and water into the atmosphere that are consistent with the modelled vegetation processes. The modelled fluxes are in fair agreement with observations across 21 sites from the FLUXNET network.
Johannes Oberpriller, Christine Herschlein, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Andreas Krause, Anja Rammig, Mats Lindeskog, Stefan Olin, and Florian Hartig
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6495–6519, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6495-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6495-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding uncertainties of projected ecosystem dynamics under environmental change is of immense value for research and climate change policy. Here, we analyzed these across European forests. We find that uncertainties are dominantly induced by parameters related to water, mortality, and climate, with an increasing importance of climate from north to south. These results highlight that climate not only contributes uncertainty but also modifies uncertainties in other ecosystem processes.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Judith Hauck, Corinne Le Quéré, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Rob B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Peter Anthoni, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Laurent Bopp, Thi Tuyet Trang Chau, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Margot Cronin, Kim I. Currie, Bertrand Decharme, Laique M. Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Wiley Evans, Richard A. Feely, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Atul Jain, Steve D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Junjie Liu, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Thais M. Rosan, Jörg Schwinger, Clemens Schwingshackl, Roland Séférian, Adrienne J. Sutton, Colm Sweeney, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Chisato Wada, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Chao Yue, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1917–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2021 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Jianyong Ma, Sam S. Rabin, Peter Anthoni, Anita D. Bayer, Sylvia S. Nyawira, Stefan Olin, Longlong Xia, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 19, 2145–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2145-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2145-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Improved agricultural management plays a vital role in protecting soils from degradation in eastern Africa. We simulated the impacts of seven management practices on soil carbon pools, nitrogen loss, and crop yield under different climate scenarios in this region. This study highlights the possibilities of conservation agriculture when targeting long-term environmental sustainability and food security in crop ecosystems, particularly for those with poor soil conditions in tropical climates.
Ralf Döscher, Mario Acosta, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Thomas Arsouze, Tommi Bergman, Raffaele Bernardello, Souhail Boussetta, Louis-Philippe Caron, Glenn Carver, Miguel Castrillo, Franco Catalano, Ivana Cvijanovic, Paolo Davini, Evelien Dekker, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, David Docquier, Pablo Echevarria, Uwe Fladrich, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Matthias Gröger, Jost v. Hardenberg, Jenny Hieronymus, M. Pasha Karami, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Torben Koenigk, Risto Makkonen, François Massonnet, Martin Ménégoz, Paul A. Miller, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Lars Nieradzik, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Declan O'Donnell, Pirkka Ollinaho, Gijs van den Oord, Pablo Ortega, Oriol Tintó Prims, Arthur Ramos, Thomas Reerink, Clement Rousset, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Philippe Le Sager, Torben Schmith, Roland Schrödner, Federico Serva, Valentina Sicardi, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Benjamin Smith, Tian Tian, Etienne Tourigny, Petteri Uotila, Martin Vancoppenolle, Shiyu Wang, David Wårlind, Ulrika Willén, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, and Qiong Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2973–3020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2973-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth system model EC-Earth3 is documented here. Key performance metrics show physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Jianyong Ma, Stefan Olin, Peter Anthoni, Sam S. Rabin, Anita D. Bayer, Sylvia S. Nyawira, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 815–839, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-815-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The implementation of the biological N fixation process in LPJ-GUESS in this study provides an opportunity to quantify N fixation rates between legumes and to better estimate grain legume production on a global scale. It also helps to predict and detect the potential contribution of N-fixing plants as
green manureto reducing or removing the use of N fertilizer in global agricultural systems, considering different climate conditions, management practices, and land-use change scenarios.
Ana Bastos, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Sönke Zaehle, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Pierre Gentine, Emilie Joetzjer, Sebastian Lienert, Tammas Loughran, Patrick C. McGuire, Sungmin O, Julia Pongratz, and Stephen Sitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1015–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Temperate biomes in Europe are not prone to recurrent dry and hot conditions in summer. However, these conditions may become more frequent in the coming decades. Because stress conditions can leave legacies for many years, this may result in reduced ecosystem resilience under recurrent stress. We assess vegetation vulnerability to the hot and dry summers in 2018 and 2019 in Europe and find the important role of inter-annual legacy effects from 2018 in modulating the impacts of the 2019 event.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, Alexis Hannart, Stephen Sitch, Vanessa Haverd, Danica Lombardozzi, Vivek K. Arora, Julia Pongratz, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Daniel S. Goll, Etsushi Kato, Hanqin Tian, Almut Arneth, Pierre Friedlingstein, Atul K. Jain, Sönke Zaehle, and Victor Brovkin
Biogeosciences, 18, 4985–5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Satellite observations since the early 1980s show that Earth's greening trend is slowing down and that browning clusters have been emerging, especially in the last 2 decades. A collection of model simulations in conjunction with causal theory points at climatic changes as a key driver of vegetation changes in natural ecosystems. Most models underestimate the observed vegetation browning, especially in tropical rainforests, which could be due to an excessive CO2 fertilization effect in models.
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tammas Loughran, Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Felix Havermann, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniel S. Goll, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Michael O. Sullivan, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Soenke Zaehle, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 635–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We provide the first spatio-temporally explicit comparison of different model-derived fluxes from land use and land cover changes (fLULCCs) by using the TRENDY v8 dynamic global vegetation models used in the 2019 global carbon budget. We find huge regional fLULCC differences resulting from environmental assumptions, simulated periods, and the timing of land use and land cover changes, and we argue for a method consistent across time and space and for carefully choosing the accounting period.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone Alin, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Alice Benoit-Cattin, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Selma Bultan, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Wiley Evans, Liesbeth Florentie, Piers M. Forster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Ian Harris, Kerstin Hartung, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Koji Kadono, Etsushi Kato, Vassilis Kitidis, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Yosuke Niwa, Kevin O'Brien, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Adam J. P. Smith, Adrienne J. Sutton, Toste Tanhua, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Guido van der Werf, Nicolas Vuichard, Anthony P. Walker, Rik Wanninkhof, Andrew J. Watson, David Willis, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3269–3340, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2020 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Lena R. Boysen, Victor Brovkin, Julia Pongratz, David M. Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Nicolas Vuichard, Philippe Peylin, Spencer Liddicoat, Tomohiro Hajima, Yanwu Zhang, Matthias Rocher, Christine Delire, Roland Séférian, Vivek K. Arora, Lars Nieradzik, Peter Anthoni, Wim Thiery, Marysa M. Laguë, Deborah Lawrence, and Min-Hui Lo
Biogeosciences, 17, 5615–5638, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5615-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We find a biogeophysically induced global cooling with strong carbon losses in a 20 million square kilometre idealized deforestation experiment performed by nine CMIP6 Earth system models. It takes many decades for the temperature signal to emerge, with non-local effects playing an important role. Despite a consistent experimental setup, models diverge substantially in their climate responses. This study offers unprecedented insights for understanding land use change effects in CMIP6 models.
Matthew J. Rowlinson, Alexandru Rap, Douglas S. Hamilton, Richard J. Pope, Stijn Hantson, Steve R. Arnold, Jed O. Kaplan, Almut Arneth, Martyn P. Chipperfield, Piers M. Forster, and Lars Nieradzik
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10937–10951, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10937-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas which contributes to anthropogenic climate change; however, the effect of human emissions is uncertain because pre-industrial ozone concentrations are not well understood. We use revised inventories of pre-industrial natural emissions to estimate the human contribution to changes in tropospheric ozone. We find that tropospheric ozone radiative forcing is up to 34 % lower when using improved pre-industrial biomass burning and vegetation emissions.
Thomas A. M. Pugh, Tim Rademacher, Sarah L. Shafer, Jörg Steinkamp, Jonathan Barichivich, Brian Beckage, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Harper, Jens Heinke, Kazuya Nishina, Anja Rammig, Hisashi Sato, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Thomas Hickler, Markus Kautz, Benjamin Quesada, Benjamin Smith, and Kirsten Thonicke
Biogeosciences, 17, 3961–3989, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. Estimates from six contemporary models found this time to range from 12.2 to 23.5 years for the global mean for 1985–2014. Future projections do not give consistent results, but 13 model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce large current uncertainty.
Stijn Hantson, Douglas I. Kelley, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Sally Archibald, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Thomas Hickler, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Lars Nieradzik, Sam S. Rabin, I. Colin Prentice, Tim Sheehan, Stephen Sitch, Lina Teckentrup, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3299–3318, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Global fire–vegetation models are widely used, but there has been limited evaluation of how well they represent various aspects of fire regimes. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of simulations made by nine FireMIP models in order to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. While some FireMIP models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime, no model clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed.
Sam S. Rabin, Peter Alexander, Roslyn Henry, Peter Anthoni, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Mark Rounsevell, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 357–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We modeled how agricultural performance and demand will shift as a result of climate change and population growth, and how the resulting adaptations will affect aspects of the Earth system upon which humanity depends. We found that the impacts of land use and management can have stronger impacts than climate change on some such
ecosystem services. The overall impacts are strongest in future scenarios with more severe climate change, high population growth, and/or resource-intensive lifestyles.
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Elke Stehfest, Detlef van Vuuren, Alexander Popp, Almut Arneth, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Jonathan Doelman, Florian Humpenöder, Anna B. Harper, Taejin Park, David Makowski, Petr Havlik, Michael Obersteiner, Jingmeng Wang, Andreas Krause, and Wenfeng Liu
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 789–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-789-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-789-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We generated spatially explicit bioenergy crop yields based on field measurements with climate, soil condition and remote-sensing variables as explanatory variables and the machine-learning method. We further compared our yield maps with the maps from three integrated assessment models (IAMs; IMAGE, MAgPIE and GLOBIOM) and found that the median yields in our maps are > 50 % higher than those in the IAM maps.
Martin Jung, Christopher Schwalm, Mirco Migliavacca, Sophia Walther, Gustau Camps-Valls, Sujan Koirala, Peter Anthoni, Simon Besnard, Paul Bodesheim, Nuno Carvalhais, Frédéric Chevallier, Fabian Gans, Daniel S. Goll, Vanessa Haverd, Philipp Köhler, Kazuhito Ichii, Atul K. Jain, Junzhi Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Jacob A. Nelson, Michael O'Sullivan, Martijn Pallandt, Dario Papale, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Christian Rödenbeck, Stephen Sitch, Gianluca Tramontana, Anthony Walker, Ulrich Weber, and Markus Reichstein
Biogeosciences, 17, 1343–1365, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1343-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We test the approach of producing global gridded carbon fluxes based on combining machine learning with local measurements, remote sensing and climate data. We show that we can reproduce seasonal variations in carbon assimilated by plants via photosynthesis and in ecosystem net carbon balance. The ecosystem’s mean carbon balance and carbon flux trends require cautious interpretation. The analysis paves the way for future improvements of the data-driven assessment of carbon fluxes.
Pierre Friedlingstein, Matthew W. Jones, Michael O'Sullivan, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Corinne Le Quéré, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Vladislav Bastrikov, Meike Becker, Laurent Bopp, Erik Buitenhuis, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Kim I. Currie, Richard A. Feely, Marion Gehlen, Dennis Gilfillan, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Nicolas Gruber, Sören Gutekunst, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Emilie Joetzjer, Jed O. Kaplan, Etsushi Kato, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Peter Landschützer, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Gregg Marland, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Anna Peregon, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Christian Rödenbeck, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Naomi Smith, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Guido R. van der Werf, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1783–1838, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2019 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Fang Li, Maria Val Martin, Meinrat O. Andreae, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Johannes W. Kaiser, Gitta Lasslop, Chao Yue, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Erik Kluzek, Xiaohong Liu, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Daniel S. Ward, Anton Darmenov, Thomas Hickler, Charles Ichoku, Brian I. Magi, Stephen Sitch, Guido R. van der Werf, Christine Wiedinmyer, and Sam S. Rabin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 12545–12567, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12545-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Fire emissions are critical for atmospheric composition, climate, carbon cycle, and air quality. We provide the first global multi-model fire emission reconstructions for 1700–2012, including carbon and 33 species of trace gases and aerosols, based on the nine state-of-the-art global fire models that participated in FireMIP. We also provide information on the recent status and limitations of the model-based reconstructions and identify the main uncertainty sources in their long-term changes.
Lina Teckentrup, Sandy P. Harrison, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Joe R. Melton, Matthew Forrest, Fang Li, Chao Yue, Almut Arneth, Thomas Hickler, Stephen Sitch, and Gitta Lasslop
Biogeosciences, 16, 3883–3910, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3883-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study compares simulated burned area of seven global vegetation models provided by the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) since 1900. We investigate the influence of five forcing factors: atmospheric CO2, population density, land–use change, lightning and climate.
We find that the anthropogenic factors lead to the largest spread between models. Trends due to climate are mostly not significant but climate strongly influences the inter-annual variability of burned area.
Adriaan J. Teuling, Emile A. G. de Badts, Femke A. Jansen, Richard Fuchs, Joost Buitink, Anne J. Hoek van Dijke, and Shannon M. Sterling
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3631–3652, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3631-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3631-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Over the past decades, changes in land use and climate over Europe have impacted the average flow of water flowing through rivers and reservoirs (the so-called
water yield). We quantify these changes using a simple but widely tested modelling approach constrained by observations of lysimeters across Europe. Results show that the contribution of land use to changes in water yield are of the same order as changes in climate, showing that impacts of land use changes cannot be neglected.
Matthias Forkel, Niels Andela, Sandy P. Harrison, Gitta Lasslop, Margreet van Marle, Emilio Chuvieco, Wouter Dorigo, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Angelika Heil, Fang Li, Joe Melton, Stephen Sitch, Chao Yue, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 16, 57–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-57-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Weather, humans, and vegetation control the occurrence of fires. In this study we find that global fire–vegetation models underestimate the strong increase of burned area with higher previous-season plant productivity in comparison to satellite-derived relationships.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Pierre Friedlingstein, Stephen Sitch, Judith Hauck, Julia Pongratz, Penelope A. Pickers, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Josep G. Canadell, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Leticia Barbero, Ana Bastos, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Scott C. Doney, Thanos Gkritzalis, Daniel S. Goll, Ian Harris, Vanessa Haverd, Forrest M. Hoffman, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, George Hurtt, Tatiana Ilyina, Atul K. Jain, Truls Johannessen, Chris D. Jones, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Sebastian Lienert, Zhu Liu, Danica Lombardozzi, Nicolas Metzl, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Are Olsen, Tsueno Ono, Prabir Patra, Anna Peregon, Wouter Peters, Philippe Peylin, Benjamin Pfeil, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Gregor Rehder, Laure Resplandy, Eddy Robertson, Matthias Rocher, Christian Rödenbeck, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tobias Steinhoff, Adrienne Sutton, Pieter P. Tans, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Francesco N. Tubiello, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Rebecca Wright, Sönke Zaehle, and Bo Zheng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 2141–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2018 describes the data sets and methodology used to quantify the emissions of carbon dioxide and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. These living data are updated every year to provide the highest transparency and traceability in the reporting of CO2, the key driver of climate change.
Martina Franz, Rocio Alonso, Almut Arneth, Patrick Büker, Susana Elvira, Giacomo Gerosa, Lisa Emberson, Zhaozhong Feng, Didier Le Thiec, Riccardo Marzuoli, Elina Oksanen, Johan Uddling, Matthew Wilkinson, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 15, 6941–6957, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6941-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-6941-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Four published ozone damage functions previously used in terrestrial biosphere models were evaluated regarding their ability to simulate observed biomass dose–response relationships using the O-CN model. Neither damage function was able to reproduce the observed ozone-induced biomass reductions. Calibrating a plant-functional-type-specific relationship between accumulated ozone uptake and leaf-level photosynthesis did lead to a good agreement between observed and modelled ozone damage.
HyeJin Kim, Isabel M. D. Rosa, Rob Alkemade, Paul Leadley, George Hurtt, Alexander Popp, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniele Baisero, Emma Caton, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, Louise Chini, Adriana De Palma, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Moreno Di Marco, Felipe Espinoza, Simon Ferrier, Shinichiro Fujimori, Ricardo E. Gonzalez, Maya Gueguen, Carlos Guerra, Mike Harfoot, Thomas D. Harwood, Tomoko Hasegawa, Vanessa Haverd, Petr Havlík, Stefanie Hellweg, Samantha L. L. Hill, Akiko Hirata, Andrew J. Hoskins, Jan H. Janse, Walter Jetz, Justin A. Johnson, Andreas Krause, David Leclère, Ines S. Martins, Tetsuya Matsui, Cory Merow, Michael Obersteiner, Haruka Ohashi, Benjamin Poulter, Andy Purvis, Benjamin Quesada, Carlo Rondinini, Aafke M. Schipper, Richard Sharp, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Wilfried Thuiller, Nicolas Titeux, Piero Visconti, Christopher Ware, Florian Wolf, and Henrique M. Pereira
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4537–4562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper lays out the protocol for the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Scenario-based Intercomparison of Models (BES-SIM) that projects the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century. BES-SIM uses harmonized scenarios and input data and a set of common output metrics at multiple scales, and identifies model uncertainties and research gaps.
Gregory Duveiller, Giovanni Forzieri, Eddy Robertson, Wei Li, Goran Georgievski, Peter Lawrence, Andy Wiltshire, Philippe Ciais, Julia Pongratz, Stephen Sitch, Almut Arneth, and Alessandro Cescatti
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 1265–1279, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1265-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth's surface can alter the local energy balance, which can result in a local warming or cooling depending on the specific vegetation transition, its timing and location, as well as on the background climate. While models can theoretically simulate these effects, their skill is not well documented across space and time. Here we provide a dedicated framework to evaluate such models against measurements derived from satellite observations.
Derek T. Robinson, Alan Di Vittorio, Peter Alexander, Almut Arneth, C. Michael Barton, Daniel G. Brown, Albert Kettner, Carsten Lemmen, Brian C. O'Neill, Marco Janssen, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Sam S. Rabin, Mark Rounsevell, James P. Syvitski, Isaac Ullah, and Peter H. Verburg
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 895–914, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-895-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-895-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the complexity behind the rapid use of Earth’s resources requires modelling approaches that couple human and natural systems. We propose a framework that comprises the configuration, frequency of interaction, and coordination of communication between models along with eight lessons as guidelines to increase the success of coupled human–natural systems modelling initiatives. We also suggest a way to expedite model coupling and increase the longevity and interoperability of models.
Maite Bauwens, Trissevgeni Stavrakou, Jean-François Müller, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Lesley De Cruz, Rozemien De Troch, Olivier Giot, Rafiq Hamdi, Piet Termonia, Quentin Laffineur, Crist Amelynck, Niels Schoon, Bernard Heinesch, Thomas Holst, Almut Arneth, Reinhart Ceulemans, Arturo Sanchez-Lorenzo, and Alex Guenther
Biogeosciences, 15, 3673–3690, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3673-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3673-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Biogenic isoprene fluxes are simulated over Europe with the MEGAN–MOHYCAN model for the recent past and end-of-century climate at high spatiotemporal resolution (0.1°, 3 min). Due to climate change, fluxes increased by 40 % over 1979–2014. Climate scenarios for 2070–2099 suggest an increase by 83 % due to climate, and an even stronger increase when the potential impact of CO2 fertilization is considered (up to 141 %). Accounting for CO2 inhibition cancels out a large part of these increases.
Donghai Wu, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Alan K. Knapp, Kevin Wilcox, Michael Bahn, Melinda D. Smith, Sara Vicca, Simone Fatichi, Jakob Zscheischler, Yue He, Xiangyi Li, Akihiko Ito, Almut Arneth, Anna Harper, Anna Ukkola, Athanasios Paschalis, Benjamin Poulter, Changhui Peng, Daniel Ricciuto, David Reinthaler, Guangsheng Chen, Hanqin Tian, Hélène Genet, Jiafu Mao, Johannes Ingrisch, Julia E. S. M. Nabel, Julia Pongratz, Lena R. Boysen, Markus Kautz, Michael Schmitt, Patrick Meir, Qiuan Zhu, Roland Hasibeder, Sebastian Sippel, Shree R. S. Dangal, Stephen Sitch, Xiaoying Shi, Yingping Wang, Yiqi Luo, Yongwen Liu, and Shilong Piao
Biogeosciences, 15, 3421–3437, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-3421-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Our results indicate that most ecosystem models do not capture the observed asymmetric responses under normal precipitation conditions, suggesting an overestimate of the drought effects and/or underestimate of the watering impacts on primary productivity, which may be the result of inadequate representation of key eco-hydrological processes. Collaboration between modelers and site investigators needs to be strengthened to improve the specific processes in ecosystem models in following studies.
Richard Fuchs, Reinhard Prestele, and Peter H. Verburg
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 441–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-441-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-441-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed current global land change dynamics based on high-resolution (30–100 m) remote sensing products. We integrated these empirical data into a future simulation model to assess global land change dynamics in the future (2000 to 2040). The consideration of empirically derived land change dynamics in future models led globally to ca. 50 % more land changes than currently assumed in state-of-the-art models. This impacts the results of other global change studies (e.g. climate change).
Wei Li, Philippe Ciais, Shushi Peng, Chao Yue, Yilong Wang, Martin Thurner, Sassan S. Saatchi, Almut Arneth, Valerio Avitabile, Nuno Carvalhais, Anna B. Harper, Etsushi Kato, Charles Koven, Yi Y. Liu, Julia E.M.S. Nabel, Yude Pan, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Maurizio Santoro, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin D. Stocker, Nicolas Viovy, Andy Wiltshire, Rasoul Yousefpour, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 5053–5067, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We used several observation-based biomass datasets to constrain the historical land-use change carbon emissions simulated by models. Compared to the range of the original modeled emissions (from 94 to 273 Pg C), the observationally constrained global cumulative emission estimate is 155 ± 50 Pg C (1σ Gaussian error) from 1901 to 2012. Our approach can also be applied to evaluate the LULCC impact of land-based climate mitigation policies.
Andreas Krause, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Anita D. Bayer, Jonathan C. Doelman, Florian Humpenöder, Peter Anthoni, Stefan Olin, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Alexander Popp, Elke Stehfest, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 14, 4829–4850, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4829-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4829-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Many climate change mitigation scenarios require negative emissions from land management. However, environmental side effects are often not considered. Here, we use projections of future land use from two land-use models as input to a vegetation model. We show that carbon removal via bioenergy production or forest maintenance and expansion affect a range of ecosystem functions. Largest impacts are found for crop production, nitrogen losses, and emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds.
Margreet J. E. van Marle, Silvia Kloster, Brian I. Magi, Jennifer R. Marlon, Anne-Laure Daniau, Robert D. Field, Almut Arneth, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Natalie M. Kehrwald, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Chao Yue, Johannes W. Kaiser, and Guido R. van der Werf
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3329–3357, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3329-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3329-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Fire emission estimates are a key input dataset for climate models. We have merged satellite information with proxy datasets and fire models to reconstruct fire emissions since 1750 AD. Our dataset indicates that, on a global scale, fire emissions were relatively constant over time. Since roughly 1950, declining emissions from savannas were approximately balanced by increased emissions from tropical deforestation zones.
Ines Bamberger, Nadine K. Ruehr, Michael Schmitt, Andreas Gast, Georg Wohlfahrt, and Almut Arneth
Biogeosciences, 14, 3649–3667, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3649-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3649-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We studied the effects of summer heatwaves and drought on photosynthesis and isoprene emissions in black locust trees. While photosynthesis decreased, isoprene emission increased sharply during the heatwaves. Comparing isoprene emissions of stressed and unstressed trees at the same temperature, however, demonstrated that stressed trees emitted less isoprene than expected. This reveals that in order to predict isoprene emissions during heat waves, model parameters need to be re-evaluated.
Reinhard Prestele, Almut Arneth, Alberte Bondeau, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Stephen Sitch, Elke Stehfest, and Peter H. Verburg
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 369–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-369-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-369-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Land-use change is still overly simplistically implemented in global ecosystem and climate models. We identify and discuss three major challenges at the interface of land-use and climate modeling and propose ways for how to improve land-use representation in climate models. We conclude that land-use data-provider and user communities need to engage in the joint development and evaluation of enhanced land-use datasets to improve the quantification of land use–climate interactions and feedback.
Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott, James Chryssanthacopoulos, Almut Arneth, Juraj Balkovic, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Christian Folberth, Michael Glotter, Steven Hoek, Toshichika Iizumi, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Curtis Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Peter Lawrence, Wenfeng Liu, Stefan Olin, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Deepak K. Ray, Ashwan Reddy, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alex C. Ruane, Gen Sakurai, Erwin Schmid, Rastislav Skalsky, Carol X. Song, Xuhui Wang, Allard de Wit, and Hong Yang
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1403–1422, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1403-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1403-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Crop models are increasingly used in climate change impact research and integrated assessments. For the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), 14 global gridded crop models (GGCMs) have supplied crop yield simulations (1980–2010) for maize, wheat, rice and soybean. We evaluate the performance of these models against observational data at global, national and grid cell level. We propose an open-access benchmark system against which future model versions can be tested.
Sam S. Rabin, Joe R. Melton, Gitta Lasslop, Dominique Bachelet, Matthew Forrest, Stijn Hantson, Jed O. Kaplan, Fang Li, Stéphane Mangeon, Daniel S. Ward, Chao Yue, Vivek K. Arora, Thomas Hickler, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Lars Nieradzik, Allan Spessa, Gerd A. Folberth, Tim Sheehan, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Stephen Sitch, Sandy Harrison, and Almut Arneth
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1175–1197, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global vegetation models are important tools for understanding how the Earth system will change in the future, and fire is a critical process to include. A number of different methods have been developed to represent vegetation burning. This paper describes the protocol for the first systematic comparison of global fire models, which will allow the community to explore various drivers and evaluate what mechanisms are important for improving performance. It also includes equations for all models.
Anita D. Bayer, Mats Lindeskog, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Peter M. Anthoni, Richard Fuchs, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 91–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on carbon pools and fluxes using a dynamic global vegetation model. Different historical reconstructions yielded an uncertainty of ca. ±30 % in the mean annual land use emission over the last decades. Accounting for the parallel expansion and abandonment of croplands on a sub-grid level (tropical shifting cultivation) substantially increased the effect of land use on carbon stocks and fluxes compared to only accounting for net effects.
Martina Franz, David Simpson, Almut Arneth, and Sönke Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 14, 45–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-45-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-45-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Ozone is a toxic air pollutant that can damage plant leaves and impact their carbon uptake from the atmosphere. We extend a terrestrial biosphere model to account for ozone damage of plants and investigate the impact on the terrestrial carbon cycle. Our approach accounts for ozone transport from the free troposphere to leaf level. We find that this substantially affects simulated ozone uptake into the plants. Simulations indicate that ozone damages plants less than expected from previous studies
Christian Folberth, Joshua Elliott, Christoph Müller, Juraj Balkovic, James Chryssanthacopoulos, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Curtis D. Jones, Nikolay Khabarov, Wenfeng Liu, Ashwan Reddy, Erwin Schmid, Rastislav Skalský, Hong Yang, Almut Arneth, Philippe Ciais, Delphine Deryng, Peter J. Lawrence, Stefan Olin, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Alex C. Ruane, and Xuhui Wang
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-527, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2016-527, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Global crop models differ in numerous aspects such as algorithms, parameterization, input data, and management assumptions. This study compares five global crop model frameworks, all based on the same field-scale model, to identify differences induced by the latter three. Results indicate that foremost nutrient supply, soil handling, and crop management induce substantial differences in crop yield estimates whereas crop cultivars primarily result in scaling of yield levels.
Kerstin Engström, Stefan Olin, Mark D. A. Rounsevell, Sara Brogaard, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Peter Alexander, Dave Murray-Rust, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 893–915, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-893-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The development of global cropland in the future depends on how many people there will be, how much meat and milk we will eat, how much food we will waste and how well farms will be managed. Uncertainties in these factors mean that global cropland could decrease from today's 1500 Mha to only 893 Mha in 2100, which would free land for biofuel production. However, if population rises towards 12 billion and global yields remain low, global cropland could also increase up to 2380 Mha in 2100.
Corinne Le Quéré, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Stephen Sitch, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Glen P. Peters, Andrew C. Manning, Thomas A. Boden, Pieter P. Tans, Richard A. Houghton, Ralph F. Keeling, Simone Alin, Oliver D. Andrews, Peter Anthoni, Leticia Barbero, Laurent Bopp, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Philippe Ciais, Kim Currie, Christine Delire, Scott C. Doney, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thanos Gkritzalis, Ian Harris, Judith Hauck, Vanessa Haverd, Mario Hoppema, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Arne Körtzinger, Peter Landschützer, Nathalie Lefèvre, Andrew Lenton, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Joe R. Melton, Nicolas Metzl, Frank Millero, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, David R. Munro, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Shin-ichiro Nakaoka, Kevin O'Brien, Are Olsen, Abdirahman M. Omar, Tsuneo Ono, Denis Pierrot, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Joe Salisbury, Ute Schuster, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Ingunn Skjelvan, Benjamin D. Stocker, Adrienne J. Sutton, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Guido R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Carbon Budget 2016 is the 11th annual update of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and their partitioning among the atmosphere, land, and ocean. This data synthesis brings together measurements, statistical information, and analyses of model results in order to provide an assessment of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties for years 1959 to 2015, with a projection for year 2016.
Andreas Krause, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Anita D. Bayer, Mats Lindeskog, and Almut Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 745–766, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-745-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-745-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We used a vegetation model to study the legacy effects of different land-use histories on ecosystem recovery in a range of environmental conditions. We found that recovery trajectories are crucially influenced by type and duration of former agricultural land use, especially for soil carbon. Spatially, we found the greatest sensitivity to land-use history in boreal forests and subtropical grasslands. These results are relevant for measurements, climate modeling and afforestation projects.
David M. Lawrence, George C. Hurtt, Almut Arneth, Victor Brovkin, Kate V. Calvin, Andrew D. Jones, Chris D. Jones, Peter J. Lawrence, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Elena Shevliakova
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2973–2998, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The goal of LUMIP is to take the next steps in land-use change science, and enable, coordinate, and ultimately address the most important land-use science questions in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date.
Stijn Hantson, Almut Arneth, Sandy P. Harrison, Douglas I. Kelley, I. Colin Prentice, Sam S. Rabin, Sally Archibald, Florent Mouillot, Steve R. Arnold, Paulo Artaxo, Dominique Bachelet, Philippe Ciais, Matthew Forrest, Pierre Friedlingstein, Thomas Hickler, Jed O. Kaplan, Silvia Kloster, Wolfgang Knorr, Gitta Lasslop, Fang Li, Stephane Mangeon, Joe R. Melton, Andrea Meyn, Stephen Sitch, Allan Spessa, Guido R. van der Werf, Apostolos Voulgarakis, and Chao Yue
Biogeosciences, 13, 3359–3375, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of past and future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes. A large variety of models exist, and it is unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. In this paper we summarize the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what lessons may be learned from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project – FireMIP.
Almut Arneth, Risto Makkonen, Stefan Olin, Pauli Paasonen, Thomas Holst, Maija K. Kajos, Markku Kulmala, Trofim Maximov, Paul A. Miller, and Guy Schurgers
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 5243–5262, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5243-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-5243-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We study the potentially contrasting effects of enhanced ecosystem CO2 release in response to warmer temperatures vs. emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds and their formation of secondary organic aerosol through a combination of measurements and modelling at a remote location in Eastern Siberia. The study aims to highlight the number of potentially opposing processes and complex interactions between vegetation physiology, soil processes and trace-gas exchanges in the climate system.
G. Murray-Tortarolo, P. Friedlingstein, S. Sitch, V. J. Jaramillo, F. Murguía-Flores, A. Anav, Y. Liu, A. Arneth, A. Arvanitis, A. Harper, A. Jain, E. Kato, C. Koven, B. Poulter, B. D. Stocker, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Biogeosciences, 13, 223–238, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-223-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled the carbon (C) cycle in Mexico for three different time periods: past (20th century), present (2000-2005) and future (2006-2100). We used different available products to estimate C stocks and fluxes in the country. Contrary to other current estimates, our results showed that Mexico was a C sink and this is likely to continue in the next century (unless the most extreme climate-change scenarios are reached).
W. Knorr, L. Jiang, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 13, 267–282, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-267-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-267-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Wildfires are the largest contributor to atmospheric pollution from all fires globally, with major consequences for health and air quality. This study examines the main contributing factors governing wildfire emissions during the 20th and 21st centuries using simulations with climate and ecosystem models. Contrary to common perception, climate change is only one of several important factors, but population change, urbanization and changing atmospheric CO2 levels are at least equally important.
C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, R. M. Andrew, J. G. Canadell, S. Sitch, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Friedlingstein, G. P. Peters, R. J. Andres, T. A. Boden, R. A. Houghton, J. I. House, R. F. Keeling, P. Tans, A. Arneth, D. C. E. Bakker, L. Barbero, L. Bopp, J. Chang, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, P. Ciais, M. Fader, R. A. Feely, T. Gkritzalis, I. Harris, J. Hauck, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Kato, V. Kitidis, K. Klein Goldewijk, C. Koven, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, I. D. Lima, N. Metzl, F. Millero, D. R. Munro, A. Murata, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S. Nakaoka, Y. Nojiri, K. O'Brien, A. Olsen, T. Ono, F. F. Pérez, B. Pfeil, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, C. Rödenbeck, S. Saito, U. Schuster, J. Schwinger, R. Séférian, T. Steinhoff, B. D. Stocker, A. J. Sutton, T. Takahashi, B. Tilbrook, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, G. R. van der Werf, S. van Heuven, D. Vandemark, N. Viovy, A. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, and N. Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
S. Olin, M. Lindeskog, T. A. M. Pugh, G. Schurgers, D. Wårlind, M. Mishurov, S. Zaehle, B. D. Stocker, B. Smith, and A. Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 745–768, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-745-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-745-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Croplands are vital ecosystems for human well-being. Properly managed they can supply food, store carbon and even sequester carbon from the atmosphere. Conversely, if poorly managed, croplands can be a source of nitrogen to inland and coastal waters, causing algal blooms, and a source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, accentuating climate change. Here we studied cropland management types for their potential to store carbon and minimize nitrogen losses while maintaining crop yields.
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, and H. J. Schellnhuber
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 447–460, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-447-2015, 2015
G. Wohlfahrt, C. Amelynck, C. Ammann, A. Arneth, I. Bamberger, A. H. Goldstein, L. Gu, A. Guenther, A. Hansel, B. Heinesch, T. Holst, L. Hörtnagl, T. Karl, Q. Laffineur, A. Neftel, K. McKinney, J. W. Munger, S. G. Pallardy, G. W. Schade, R. Seco, and N. Schoon
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7413–7427, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7413-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7413-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Methanol is the second most abundant volatile organic compound in the troposphere and plays a significant role in atmospheric chemistry. While there is consensus about the dominant role of plants as the major source and the reaction with OH as the major sink, global methanol budgets diverge considerably in terms of source/sink estimates. Here we present micrometeorological methanol flux data from eight sites in order to provide a first cross-site synthesis of the terrestrial methanol exchange.
S. Olin, G. Schurgers, M. Lindeskog, D. Wårlind, B. Smith, P. Bodin, J. Holmér, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 12, 2489–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015, 2015
P. Bodin, S. Olin, T. A. M. Pugh, and A. Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1571-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1571-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
Food security is defined as stable access to food of good nutritional quality. In regions where food security is highly dependent on local production it is thus of importance to produce not only enough calories but also to minimize variation in yield. This trade-off is investigated here using simulated crop yield and by selecting relative distributions of crops. The results show a large potential to either increase food production or to decrease its variance by applying optimized crop selection.
D. Wårlind, B. Smith, T. Hickler, and A. Arneth
Biogeosciences, 11, 6131–6146, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, 2014
A. Arneth, S. Olin, R. Makkonen, P. Paasonen, T. Holst, M. Kajos, M. Kulmala, T. Maximov, P. A. Miller, and G. Schurgers
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-19149-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-19149-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
B. Smith, D. Wårlind, A. Arneth, T. Hickler, P. Leadley, J. Siltberg, and S. Zaehle
Biogeosciences, 11, 2027–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, 2014
W. Knorr, T. Kaminski, A. Arneth, and U. Weber
Biogeosciences, 11, 1085–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1085-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-1085-2014, 2014
R. Väänänen, E.-M. Kyrö, T. Nieminen, N. Kivekäs, H. Junninen, A. Virkkula, M. Dal Maso, H. Lihavainen, Y. Viisanen, B. Svenningsson, T. Holst, A. Arneth, P. P. Aalto, M. Kulmala, and V.-M. Kerminen
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11887–11903, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11887-2013, 2013
N. Unger, K. Harper, Y. Zheng, N. Y. Kiang, I. Aleinov, A. Arneth, G. Schurgers, C. Amelynck, A. Goldstein, A. Guenther, B. Heinesch, C. N. Hewitt, T. Karl, Q. Laffineur, B. Langford, K. A. McKinney, P. Misztal, M. Potosnak, J. Rinne, S. Pressley, N. Schoon, and D. Serça
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10243–10269, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10243-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10243-2013, 2013
M. K. Kajos, H. Hakola, T. Holst, T. Nieminen, V. Tarvainen, T. Maximov, T. Petäjä, A. Arneth, and J. Rinne
Biogeosciences, 10, 4705–4719, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4705-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-4705-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Earth system interactions with the biosphere: ecosystems
Opening Pandora's box: reducing global circulation model uncertainty in Australian simulations of the carbon cycle
Persistent La Niñas drive joint soybean harvest failures in North and South America
Spatiotemporal changes in the boreal forest in Siberia over the period 1985–2015 against the background of climate change
Downscaling of climate change scenarios for a high-resolution, site-specific assessment of drought stress risk for two viticultural regions with heterogeneous landscapes
Global climate change and the Baltic Sea ecosystem: direct and indirect effects on species, communities and ecosystem functioning
Widespread greening suggests increased dry-season plant water availability in the Rio Santa valley, Peruvian Andes
Spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leaching into the European river network
Impacts of compound hot–dry extremes on US soybean yields
Vulnerability of European ecosystems to two compound dry and hot summers in 2018 and 2019
Modelling forest ruin due to climate hazards
Exploring how groundwater buffers the influence of heatwaves on vegetation function during multi-year droughts
Impacts of land use change and elevated CO2 on the interannual variations and seasonal cycles of gross primary productivity in China
Investigating the applicability of emergent constraints
Tidal impacts on primary production in the North Sea
Global vegetation variability and its response to elevated CO2, global warming, and climate variability – a study using the offline SSiB4/TRIFFID model and satellite data
Steering operational synergies in terrestrial observation networks: opportunity for advancing Earth system dynamics modelling
Contrasting terrestrial carbon cycle responses to the 1997/98 and 2015/16 extreme El Niño events
Low-frequency variability in North Sea and Baltic Sea identified through simulations with the 3-D coupled physical–biogeochemical model ECOSMO
Vegetation–climate feedbacks modulate rainfall patterns in Africa under future climate change
Climate change increases riverine carbon outgassing, while export to the ocean remains uncertain
Spatial and temporal variations in plant water-use efficiency inferred from tree-ring, eddy covariance and atmospheric observations
Modelling short-term variability in carbon and water exchange in a temperate Scots pine forest
Establishment and maintenance of regulating ecosystem services in a dryland area of central Asia, illustrated using the Kökyar Protection Forest, Aksu, NW China, as an example
Do Himalayan treelines respond to recent climate change? An evaluation of sensitivity indicators
The impact of land cover generated by a dynamic vegetation model on climate over east Asia in present and possible future climate
Bimodality of woody cover and biomass across the precipitation gradient in West Africa
Critical impacts of global warming on land ecosystems
The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change
Quantifying the thermodynamic entropy budget of the land surface: is this useful?
Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Gab Abramowitz, Andrew J. Pitman, Anna M. Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Bastien François, and Benjamin Smith
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 549–576, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Studies analyzing the impact of the future climate on ecosystems employ climate projections simulated by global circulation models. These climate projections display biases that translate into significant uncertainty in projections of the future carbon cycle. Here, we test different methods to constrain the uncertainty in simulations of the carbon cycle over Australia. We find that all methods reduce the bias in the steady-state carbon variables but that temporal properties do not improve.
Raed Hamed, Sem Vijverberg, Anne F. Van Loon, Jeroen Aerts, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 255–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Spatially compounding soy harvest failures can have important global impacts. Using causal networks, we show that soy yields are predominately driven by summer soil moisture conditions in North and South America. Summer soil moisture is affected by antecedent soil moisture and by remote extra-tropical SST patterns in both hemispheres. Both of these soil moisture drivers are again influenced by ENSO. Our results highlight physical pathways by which ENSO can drive spatially compounding impacts.
Wenxue Fu, Lei Tian, Yu Tao, Mingyang Li, and Huadong Guo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 223–239, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-223-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-223-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change has been proven to be an indisputable fact and to be occurring at a faster rate in boreal forest areas. The results of this paper show that boreal forest coverage has shown an increasing trend in the past 3 decades, and the area of broad-leaved forests has increased more rapidly than that of coniferous forests. In addition, temperature rather than precipitation is the main climate factor that is driving change.
Marco Hofmann, Claudia Volosciuk, Martin Dubrovský, Douglas Maraun, and Hans R. Schultz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 911–934, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-911-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-911-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We modelled water budget developments of viticultural growing regions on the spatial scale of individual vineyard plots with respect to landscape features like the available water capacity of the soils, slope, and aspect of the sites. We used an ensemble of climate simulations and focused on the occurrence of drought stress. The results show a high bandwidth of projected changes where the risk of potential drought stress becomes more apparent in steep-slope regions.
Markku Viitasalo and Erik Bonsdorff
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 711–747, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-711-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-711-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change has multiple effects on Baltic Sea species, communities and ecosystem functioning. Effects on species distribution, eutrophication and trophic interactions are expected. We review these effects, identify knowledge gaps and draw conclusions based on recent (2010–2021) field, experimental and modelling research. An extensive summary table is compiled to highlight the multifaceted impacts of climate-change-driven processes in the Baltic Sea.
Lorenz Hänchen, Cornelia Klein, Fabien Maussion, Wolfgang Gurgiser, Pierluigi Calanca, and Georg Wohlfahrt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 595–611, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-595-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-595-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To date, farmers' perceptions of hydrological changes do not match analysis of meteorological data. In contrast to rainfall data, we find greening of vegetation, indicating increased water availability in the past decades. The start of the season is highly variable, making farmers' perceptions comprehensible. We show that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation has complex effects on vegetation seasonality but does not drive the greening we observe. Improved onset forecasts could help local farmers.
Céline Gommet, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Haicheng Zhang, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 393–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-393-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-393-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) leaching from soils into river networks is an important component of the land carbon (C) budget, but its spatiotemporal variation is not yet fully constrained. We use a land surface model to simulate the present-day land C budget at the European scale, including leaching of DOC from the soil. We found average leaching of 14.3 Tg C yr−1 (0.6 % of terrestrial net primary production) with seasonal variations. We determine runoff and temperature to be the main drivers.
Raed Hamed, Anne F. Van Loon, Jeroen Aerts, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1371–1391, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1371-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1371-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Soy yields in the US are affected by climate variability. We identify the main within-season climate drivers and highlight potential compound events and associated agricultural impacts. Our results show that soy yields are most negatively influenced by the combination of high temperature and low soil moisture during the summer crop reproductive period. Furthermore, we highlight the role of temperature and moisture coupling across the year in generating these hot–dry extremes and linked impacts.
Ana Bastos, René Orth, Markus Reichstein, Philippe Ciais, Nicolas Viovy, Sönke Zaehle, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Pierre Gentine, Emilie Joetzjer, Sebastian Lienert, Tammas Loughran, Patrick C. McGuire, Sungmin O, Julia Pongratz, and Stephen Sitch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1015–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1015-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Temperate biomes in Europe are not prone to recurrent dry and hot conditions in summer. However, these conditions may become more frequent in the coming decades. Because stress conditions can leave legacies for many years, this may result in reduced ecosystem resilience under recurrent stress. We assess vegetation vulnerability to the hot and dry summers in 2018 and 2019 in Europe and find the important role of inter-annual legacy effects from 2018 in modulating the impacts of the 2019 event.
Pascal Yiou and Nicolas Viovy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 997–1013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-997-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-997-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a model of tree ruin as a response to drought hazards. This model is inspired by a standard model of ruin in the insurance industry. We illustrate how ruin can occur in present-day conditions and the sensitivity of ruin and time to ruin to hazard statistical properties. We also show how tree strategies to cope with hazards can affect their long-term reserves and the probability of ruin.
Mengyuan Mu, Martin G. De Kauwe, Anna M. Ukkola, Andy J. Pitman, Weidong Guo, Sanaa Hobeichi, and Peter R. Briggs
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 919–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-919-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-919-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Groundwater can buffer the impacts of drought and heatwaves on ecosystems, which is often neglected in model studies. Using a land surface model with groundwater, we explained how groundwater sustains transpiration and eases heat pressure on plants in heatwaves during multi-year droughts. Our results showed the groundwater’s influences diminish as drought extends and are regulated by plant physiology. We suggest neglecting groundwater in models may overstate projected future heatwave intensity.
Binghao Jia, Xin Luo, Ximing Cai, Atul Jain, Deborah N. Huntzinger, Zhenghui Xie, Ning Zeng, Jiafu Mao, Xiaoying Shi, Akihiko Ito, Yaxing Wei, Hanqin Tian, Benjamin Poulter, Dan Hayes, and Kevin Schaefer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 235–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-235-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-235-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We quantitatively examined the relative contributions of climate change, land
use and land cover change, and elevated CO2 to interannual variations and seasonal cycle amplitude of gross primary productivity (GPP) in China based on multi-model ensemble simulations. The contributions of major subregions to the temporal change in China's total GPP are also presented. This work may help us better understand GPP spatiotemporal patterns and their responses to regional changes and human activities.
Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, and Victor Brovkin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 501–523, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The concept of
emergent constraintsis a key method to reduce uncertainty in multi-model climate projections using historical simulations and observations. Here, we present an in-depth analysis of the applicability of the method and uncover possible limitations. Key limitations are a lack of comparability (temporal, spatial, and conceptual) between models and observations and the disagreement between models on system dynamics throughout different levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Changjin Zhao, Ute Daewel, and Corinna Schrum
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 287–317, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-287-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-287-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our study highlights the importance of tides in controlling the spatial and temporal distributions North Sea primary production based on numerical experiments. We identified two different response chains acting in different regions of the North Sea. (i) In the southern shallow areas, strong tidal mixing dilutes phytoplankton concentrations and increases turbidity, thus decreasing NPP. (ii) In the frontal regions, tidal mixing infuses nutrients into the surface mixed layer, thus increasing NPP.
Ye Liu, Yongkang Xue, Glen MacDonald, Peter Cox, and Zhengqiu Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 9–29, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-9-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-9-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Climate regime shift during the 1980s identified by abrupt change in temperature, precipitation, etc. had a substantial impact on the ecosystem at different scales. Our paper identifies the spatial and temporal characteristics of the effects of climate variability, global warming, and eCO2 on ecosystem trends before and after the shift. We found about 15 % (20 %) of the global land area had enhanced positive trend (trend sign reversed) during the 1980s due to climate regime shift.
Roland Baatz, Pamela L. Sullivan, Li Li, Samantha R. Weintraub, Henry W. Loescher, Michael Mirtl, Peter M. Groffman, Diana H. Wall, Michael Young, Tim White, Hang Wen, Steffen Zacharias, Ingolf Kühn, Jianwu Tang, Jérôme Gaillardet, Isabelle Braud, Alejandro N. Flores, Praveen Kumar, Henry Lin, Teamrat Ghezzehei, Julia Jones, Henry L. Gholz, Harry Vereecken, and Kris Van Looy
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 593–609, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-593-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-593-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Focusing on the usage of integrated models and in situ Earth observatory networks, three challenges are identified to advance understanding of ESD, in particular to strengthen links between biotic and abiotic, and above- and below-ground processes. We propose developing a model platform for interdisciplinary usage, to formalize current network infrastructure based on complementarities and operational synergies, and to extend the reanalysis concept to the ecosystem and critical zone.
Jun Wang, Ning Zeng, Meirong Wang, Fei Jiang, Hengmao Wang, and Ziqiang Jiang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Behaviors of terrestrial ecosystems differ in different El Niños. We analyze terrestrial carbon cycle responses to two extreme El Niños (2015/16 and 1997/98), and find large differences. We find that global land–atmosphere carbon flux anomaly was about 2 times smaller in 2015/16 than in 1997/98 event, without the obvious lagged response. Then we illustrate the climatic and biological mechanisms of the different terrestrial carbon cycle responses in 2015/16 and 1997/98 El Niños regionally.
Ute Daewel and Corinna Schrum
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 801–815, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-801-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-801-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Processes behind observed long-term variations in marine ecosystems are difficult to be deduced from in situ observations only. By statistically analysing a 61-year model simulation for the North Sea and Baltic Sea and additional model scenarios, we identified major modes of variability in the environmental variables and associated those with changes in primary production. We found that the dominant impact on changes in ecosystem productivity was introduced by modulations of the wind fields.
Minchao Wu, Guy Schurgers, Markku Rummukainen, Benjamin Smith, Patrick Samuelsson, Christer Jansson, Joe Siltberg, and Wilhelm May
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 627–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-627-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-627-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
On Earth, vegetation does not merely adapt to climate but also imposes significant influences on climate with both local and remote effects. In this study we evaluated the role of vegetation in African climate with a regional Earth system model. By the comparison between the experiments with and without dynamic vegetation changes, we found that vegetation can influence climate remotely, resulting in modulating rainfall patterns over Africa.
F. Langerwisch, A. Walz, A. Rammig, B. Tietjen, K. Thonicke, and W. Cramer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 559–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-559-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-559-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In Amazonia, carbon fluxes are considerably influenced by annual flooding. We applied the newly developed model RivCM to several climate change scenarios to estimate potential changes in riverine carbon. We find that climate change causes substantial changes in riverine organic and inorganic carbon, as well as changes in carbon exported to the atmosphere and ocean. Such changes could have local and regional impacts on the carbon budget of the whole Amazon basin and parts of the Atlantic Ocean.
Stefan C. Dekker, Margriet Groenendijk, Ben B. B. Booth, Chris Huntingford, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 525–533, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-525-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-525-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Our analysis allows us to infer maps of changing plant water-use efficiency (WUE) for 1901–2010, using atmospheric observations of temperature, humidity and CO2. Our estimated increase in global WUE is consistent with the tree-ring and eddy covariance data, but much larger than the historical WUE increases simulated by Earth System Models (ESMs). We therefore conclude that the effects of increasing CO2 on plant WUE are significantly underestimated in the latest climate projections.
M. H. Vermeulen, B. J. Kruijt, T. Hickler, and P. Kabat
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 485–503, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-485-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-485-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We compared a process-based ecosystem model (LPJ-GUESS) with EC measurements to test whether observed interannual variability (IAV) in carbon and water fluxes can be reproduced because it is important to understand the driving mechanisms of IAV. We show that the model's mechanistic process representation for photosynthesis at low temperatures and during drought could be improved, but other process representations are still lacking in order to fully reproduce the observed IAV.
S. Missall, M. Welp, N. Thevs, A. Abliz, and Ü. Halik
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 359–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-359-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-359-2015, 2015
U. Schickhoff, M. Bobrowski, J. Böhner, B. Bürzle, R. P. Chaudhary, L. Gerlitz, H. Heyken, J. Lange, M. Müller, T. Scholten, N. Schwab, and R. Wedegärtner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 245–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-245-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-245-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Near-natural Himalayan treelines are usually krummholz treelines, which are relatively unresponsive to climate change. Intense recruitment of treeline trees suggests a great potential for future treeline advance. Competitive abilities of tree seedlings within krummholz thickets and dwarf scrub heaths will be a major source of variation in treeline dynamics. Tree growth-climate relationships show mature treeline trees to be responsive in particular to high pre-monsoon temperature trends.
M.-H. Cho, K.-O. Boo, G. M. Martin, J. Lee, and G.-H. Lim
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 147–160, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-147-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-147-2015, 2015
Z. Yin, S. C. Dekker, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, and H. A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 257–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-257-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-257-2014, 2014
S. Ostberg, W. Lucht, S. Schaphoff, and D. Gerten
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 347–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-347-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-347-2013, 2013
U. Port, V. Brovkin, and M. Claussen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 3, 233–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-233-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-233-2012, 2012
N. A. Brunsell, S. J. Schymanski, and A. Kleidon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 2, 87–103, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-87-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-87-2011, 2011
Cited articles
Ahlström, A., Schurgers, G., Arneth, A., and Smith, B.:
Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections,
Environ. Res. Lett.,
7, 044008-10, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044008, 2012.
Ahlström, A., Raupach, M. R., Schurgers, G., Smith, B., Arneth, A., Jung, M., Reichstein, M., Canadell, J. G., Friedlingstein, P., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Poulter, B., Sitch, S., Stocker, B. D., Viovy, N., Wang, Y. P., Wiltshire, A., Zaehle, S., and Zeng, N.:
The dominant role of semi-arid ecosystems in the trend and variability of the land CO2 sink,
Science,
348, 895–899, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa1668, 2015.
Aleman, J. C., Blarquez, O., and Staver, C. A.:
Land-use change outweighs projected effects of changing rainfall on tree cover in sub-Saharan Africa,
Global Change Biol.,
22, 3013–3025, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13299, 2016.
Alexander, P., Prestele, R., Verburg, P. H., Arneth, A., Baranzelli, C., Batista e Silva, F., Brown, C., Butler, A., Calvin, K., Dendoncker, N., Doelman, J. C., Dunford, R., Engström, K., Eitelberg, D., Fujimori, S., Harrison, P. A., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Holzhauer, S., Humpenöder, F., Jacobs-Crisioni, C., Jain, A. K., Krisztin, T., Kyle, P., Lavalle, C., Lenton, T., Liu, J., Meiyappan, P., Popp, A., Powell, T., Sands, R. D., Schaldach, R., Stehfest, E., Steinbuks, J., Tabeau, A., van Meijl, H., Wise, M. A., and Rounsevell, M. D. A.:
Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections,
Global Change Biol.,
23, 767–781, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13447, 2017.
Alexander, P., Rabin, S., Anthoni, P., Henry, R., Pugh, T. A. M., Rounsevell, M. D. A., and Arneth, A.:
Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide,
Global Change Biol.,
24, 2791–2809, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14110, 2018.
Alexandratos, N. and Bruinsma, J.:
World Agriculture towards 2030/2050. The 2012 Revision,
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy, 2012.
Anderson, R. G., Canadell, J. G., Randerson, J. T., Jackson, R. B., Hungate, B. A., Baldocchi, D. D., Ban-Weiss, G. A., Bonan, G. B., Caldeira, K., Cao, L., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Gurney, K. R., Kueppers, L. M., Law, B. E., Luyssaert, S., and O'Halloran, T. L.:
Biophysical considerations in forestry for climate protection,
Front. Ecol. Environ.,
9, 174–182, https://doi.org/10.1890/090179, 2011.
Arora, V. K. and Boer, G. J.:
Uncertainties in the 20th century carbon budget associated with land use change,
Global Change Biol.,
16, 3327–3348, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02202.x, 2010.
Barrett, S. and Toman, M.: Contrasting Future Paths for an Evolving Global Climate Regime, Glob. Policy, 1, 64–74, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1758-5899.2009.00010.x, 2010.
Bayer, A. D., Lindeskog, M., Pugh, T. A. M., Anthoni, P. M., Fuchs, R., and Arneth, A.: Uncertainties in the land-use flux resulting from land-use change reconstructions and gross land transitions, Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 91–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-91-2017, 2017.
Bondeau, A., Smith, P. C., Zähle, S., Schaphoff, S., Lucht, W., Cramer, W., Gerten, D., Lotze-Campen, H., Müller, C., Reichstein, M., Smith, B., Zaehle, S., Schaphoff, S., Lucht, W., Cramer, W., Gerten, D., Lotze-Campen, H., Müller, C., Reichstein, M., and Smith, B.:
Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance,
Global Change Biol.,
13, 679–706, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01305.x, 2007.
Brovkin, V., Boysen, L., Arora, V. K., Boisier, J. P., Cadule, P., Chini, L., Claussen, M., Friedlingstein, P., Gayler, V., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Hurtt, G. C., Jones, C. D., Kato, E., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Pacifico, F., Pongratz, J., and Weiss, M.:
Effect of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on climate and land carbon storage in CMIP5 projections for the twenty-first century,
J. Climate,
26, 6859–6881, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00623.1, 2013.
Brown, C., Alexander, P., Arneth, A., Holman, I., and Rounsevell, M.:
Achievement of Paris climate goals unlikely due to time lags in the land system,
Nat. Clim. Change,
9, 203–208, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0400-5, 2019.
Curtis, P. G., Slay, C. M., Harris, N. L., Tyukavina, A., and Hansen, M. C.:
Classifying drivers of global forest loss,
Science,
361, 1108–1111, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aau3445, 2018.
DeFries, R., Foley, J., and Asner, G.:
Land-use choices: balancing human needs and ecosystem function,
Front. Ecol. Environ.,
2, 249–257, 2004.
DeFries, R., Hansen, A., Newton, A. C., and Hansen, M. C.:
Increasing isolation of protected areas in tropical forests over the past twenty years,
Ecol. Appl.,
15, 19–26, https://doi.org/10.1890/03-5258, 2005.
de Groot, R., Brander, L., van der Ploeg, S., Costanza, R., Bernard, F., Braat, L., Christie, M., Crossman, N., Ghermandi, A., Hein, L., Hussain, S., Kumar, P., McVittie, A., Portela, R., Rodriguez, L. C., ten Brink, P., and van Beukering, P.:
Global estimates of the value of ecosystems and their services in monetary units,
Ecosyst. Serv.,
1, 50–61, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2012.07.005, 2012.
De Kauwe, M. G., Medlyn, B. E., Zaehle, S., Walker, A. P., Dietze, M. C., Hickler, T., Jain, A. K., Luo, Y., Parton, W. J., Prentice, I. C., Smith, B., Thornton, P. E., Wang, S., Wang, Y. P., Wårlind, D., Weng, E., Crous, K. Y., Ellsworth, D. S., Hanson, P. J., Seok Kim, H., Warren, J. M., Oren, R., and Norby, R. J.:
Forest water use and water use efficiency at elevated CO2: A model-data intercomparison at two contrasting temperate forest FACE sites,
Global Change Biol.,
19, 1759–1779, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12164, 2013.
Dunford, R. W., Smith, A. C., Harrison, P. A., and Hanganu, D.:
Ecosystem service provision in a changing Europe: adapting to the impacts of combined climate and socio-economic change,
Landscape Ecology,
30, 443–461, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-014-0148-2, 2015.
Eitelberg, D. A., van Vliet, J., Doelman, J. C., Stehfest, E., and Verburg, P. H.:
Demand for biodiversity protection and carbon storage as drivers of global land change scenarios, Global Environ. Change,
40, 101–111, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.014, 2016.
Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Müller, C., Frieler, K., Konzmann, M., Gerten, D., Glotter, M., Flörke, M., Wada, Y., Best, N., Eisner, S., Fekete, B. M., Folberth, C., Foster, I., Gosling, S. N., Haddeland, I., Khabarov, N., Ludwig, F., Masaki, Y., Olin, S., Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A. C., Satoh, Y., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., Tang, Q., and Wisser, D.:
Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,
111, 3239–3244, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222474110, 2014.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
Farley, K. A., Jobbágy, E. G., and Jackson, R. B.:
Effects of afforestation on water yield: A global synthesis with implications for policy,
Global Change Biol.,
11, 1565–1576, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01011.x, 2005.
Fitton, N., Alexander, P., Arnell, N., Bajzelj, B., Calvin, K., Doelman, J., Gerber, J. S., Havlik, P., Hasegawa, T., Herrero, M., Krisztin, T., van Meijl, H., Powell, T., Sands, R., Stehfest, E., West, P. C., and Smith, P.:
The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity,
Global Environ. Change,
58, 101944, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944, 2019.
Foley, J. a, DeFries, R., Asner, G. P., Barford, C., Bonan, G., Carpenter, S. R., Chapin, F. S., Coe, M. T., Daily, G. C., Gibbs, H. K. H. K., Helkowski, J. H., Holloway, T., Howard, E. A., Kucharik, C. J., Monfreda, C., Patz, J. A., Prentice, I. C., Ramankutty, N., Snyder, P. K., Chapin M. T., F. S. C., Daily, G. C., Gibbs, H. K. H. K., Helkowski, J. H., Holloway, T., Howard, E. A., Kucharik, C. J., Monfreda, C., Patz, J. A., Prentice, I. C., Ramankutty, N., and Snyder, P. K.:
Global consequences of land use,
Science,
309, 570–574, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1111772, 2005.
Friend, A. D., Lucht, W., Rademacher, T. T., Keribin, R., Betts, R., Cadule, P., Ciais, P., Clark, D. B., Dankers, R., Falloon, P. D., Ito, A., Kahana, R., Kleidon, A., Lomas, M. R., Nishina, K., Ostberg, S., Pavlick, R., Peylin, P., Schaphoff, S., Vuichard, N., Warszawski, L., Wiltshire, A., and Woodward, F. I.:
Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,
111, 3280–3285, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222477110, 2014.
Fritz, S., See, L., Mccallum, I., You, L., Bun, A., Moltchanova, E., Duerauer, M., Albrecht, F., Schill, C., Perger, C., Havlik, P., Mosnier, A., Thornton, P., Wood-Sichra, U., Herrero, M., Becker-Reshef, I., Justice, C., Hansen, M., Gong, P., Abdel Aziz, S., Cipriani, A., Cumani, R., Cecchi, G., Conchedda, G., Ferreira, S., Gomez, A., Haffani, M., Kayitakire, F., Malanding, J., Mueller, R., Newby, T., Nonguierma, A., Olusegun, A., Ortner, S., Rajak, D. R., Rocha, J., Schepaschenko, D., Schepaschenko, M., Terekhov, A., Tiangwa, A., Vancutsem, C., Vintrou, E., Wenbin, W., van der Velde, M., Dunwoody, A., Kraxner, F., and Obersteiner, M.:
Mapping global cropland and field size,
Global Change Biol.,
21, 1980–1992, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12838, 2015.
Funk, C. C. and Brown, M. E.:
Declining global per capita agricultural production and warming oceans threaten food security,
Food Secur.,
1, 271–289, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-009-0026-y, 2009.
Gibbs, H. K., Rausch, L., Munger, J., Schelly, I., Morton, D. C., Noojipady, P., Soares-Filho, B., Barreto, P., Micol, L., and Walker, N. F.:
Brazil's Soy Moratorium,
Science,
347, 377–378, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa0181, 2015.
Hansen, M. C., Potapov, P. V., Moore, R., Hancher, M., Turubanova, S. A., Tyukavina, A., Thau, D., Stehman, S. V., Goetz, S. J., Loveland, T. R., Kommareddy, A., Egorov, A., Chini, L., Justice, C. O., and J. R. G.:
Townshend: High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change,
Science,
342, 850–854, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1244693, 2013.
Harper, A. B., Powell, T., Cox, P. M., House, J., Huntingford, C., Lenton, T. M., Sitch, S., Burke, E., Chadburn, S. E., Collins, W. J., Comyn-Platt, E., Daioglou, V., Doelman, J. C., Hayman, G., Robertson, E., van Vuuren, D., Wiltshire, A., Webber, C. P., Bastos, A., Boysen, L., Ciais, P., Devaraju, N., Jain, A. K., Krause, A., Poulter, B., and Shu, S.:
Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets,
Nat. Commun.,
9, 2938, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05340-z, 2018.
Heinimann, A., Mertz, O., Frolking, S., Christensen, A. E., Hurni, K., Sedano, F., Chini, L. P., Sahajpal, R., Hansen, M., and Hurtt, G.:
A global view of shifting cultivation: Recent, current, and future extent,
PLoS One,
12, 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0184479, 2017.
Hempel, S., Frieler, K., Warszawski, L., Schewe, J., and Piontek, F.: Bias corrected GCM input data for ISIMIP Fast Track, GFZ Data Services, https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2016.001, 2013.
Holl, K. D. and Brancalion, P. H. S.:
Tree planting is not a simple solution,
Science,
368, 580–581, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba8232, 2020.
Hostert, P., Kuemmerle, T., Prishchepov, A., Sieber, A., Lambin, E. F., and Radeloff, V. C.:
Rapid land use change after socio-economic disturbances: The collapse of the SovietUnion versus Chernobyl,
Environ. Res. Lett.,
6, 045201, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045201, 2011.
Humpenöder, F., Popp, A., Dietrich, J. P., Klein, D., Lotze-Campen, H., Bonsch, M., Bodirsky, B. L. B. L., Weindl, I., Stevanovic, M., Mueller, C., and Müller, C.:
Investigating afforestation and bioenergy CCS as climate change mitigation strategies,
Environ. Res. Lett.,
9, 064029, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064029, 2014.
Huntingford, C., Cox, P. M., Mercado, L. M., Sitch, S., Bellouin, N., Boucher, O., and Gedney, N.:
Highly contrasting effects of different climate forcing agents on terrestrial ecosystem services,
Philos. T. R. Soc. A,
369, 2026–2037, 2011.
Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L. P., Frolking, S., Betts, R. A., Feddema, J., Fischer, G., Fisk, J. P., Hibbard, K., Houghton, R. A., Janetos, A., Jones, C. D., Kindermann, G., Kinoshita, T., Klein Goldewijk, K., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Thomson, A., Thornton, P., van Vuuren, D. P., and Wang, Y. P.:
Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands,
Climatic Change,
109, 117–161, 2011.
Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L., Sahajpal, R., Frolking, S., Bodirsky, B. L., Calvin, K., Doelman, J. C., Fisk, J., Fujimori, S., Goldewijk, K. K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heinimann, A., Humpenöder, F., Jungclaus, J., Kaplan , J., Kennedy, J., Kristzin, T., Lawrence, D., Lawrence, P., Ma, L., Mertz, O., Pongratz, J., Popp, A., Poulter, B., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Stehfest, E., Thornton, P., Tubiello, F. N., van Vuuren, D. P., and Zhang, X.: Land-use Harmonization 2, https://www.luh.umd.edu/data.shtml, last access: 1 June 2019.
Hurtt, G. C., Chini, L., Sahajpal, R., Frolking, S., Bodirsky, B. L., Calvin, K., Doelman, J. C., Fisk, J., Fujimori, S., Klein Goldewijk, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heinimann, A., Humpenöder, F., Jungclaus, J., Kaplan, J. O., Kennedy, J., Krisztin, T., Lawrence, D., Lawrence, P., Ma, L., Mertz, O., Pongratz, J., Popp, A., Poulter, B., Riahi, K., Shevliakova, E., Stehfest, E., Thornton, P., Tubiello, F. N., van Vuuren, D. P., and Zhang, X.: Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020.
IPBES:
Summary for policymakers of the global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services,
IPBES, Bonn, Germany, 2019.
IPCC:
Climate Change and Land. IPCC Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems,
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Geneva, Switzerland, 2019.
Jantz, S. M., Barker, B., Brooks, T. M., Chini, L. P., Huang, Q., Moore, R. M., Noel, J., and Hurtt, G. C.:
Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation,
Conserv. Biol.,
29, 1122–1131, https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.12549, 2015.
Kim, H., Rosa, I. M. D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D. P., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R. E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T. D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlík, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S. L. L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A. J., Janse, J. H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J. A., Krause, A., Leclère, D., Martins, I. S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A. M., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., and Pereira, H. M.: A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4537–4562, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018, 2018.
Klein Goldewijk, C. G. M.:
A historical land use data set for the Holocene; HYDE 3.2,
DANS, https://doi.org/10.17026/dans-znk-cfy3, 2016.
Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Van Drecht, G., and De Vos, M.:
The HYDE 3.1 spatially explicit database of human-induced global land-use change over the past 12,000 years,
Global Ecol. Biogeogr.,
20, 73–86, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00587.x, 2011.
Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J., and Stehfest, E.: Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene – HYDE 3.2, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 927–953, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-927-2017, 2017.
Krause, A., Pugh, T. A. M., Bayer, A. D., Doelman, J. C., Humpenöder, F., Anthoni, P., Olin, S., Bodirsky, B. L., Popp, A., Stehfest, E., and Arneth, A.: Global consequences of afforestation and bioenergy cultivation on ecosystem service indicators, Biogeosciences, 14, 4829–4850, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4829-2017, 2017.
Krause, A., Pugh, T. A. M., Bayer, A. D., Li,
W., Leung, F., Bondeau, A., Doelman, J. C., Humpenöder, F., Anthoni, P., Bodirsky, B. L., Ciais, P., Müller, C., Murray-Tortarolo, G., Olin, S., Popp, A., Sitch, S., Stehfest, E., and Arneth, A.:
Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts,
Global Change Biol.,
24, 3025–3038, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14144, 2018.
Krause, A., Haverd, V., Poulter, B., Anthoni, P., Quesada, B., Rammig, A., and Arneth, A.:
Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning,
Earths Future,
7, 833–851, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001123, 2019.
Lambin, E. F., Geist, H. J., and Lepers, E.:
Dynamics of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change in Tropical Regions,
Annu. Rev. Env. Resour.,
28, 205–241, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.28.050302.105459, 2003.
Lambin, E. F., Meyfroidt, P., Rueda, X., Blackman, A., Börner, J., Cerutti, P. O., Dietsch, T., Jungmann, L., Lamarque, P., Lister, J., Walker, N. F., and Wunder, S.:
Effectiveness and synergies of policy instruments for land use governance in tropical regions,
Global Environ. Change,
28, 129–140, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.007, 2014.
Lawler, J. J., Lewis, D. J., Nelson, E., Plantinga, A. J., Polasky, S., Withey, J. C., Helmers, D. P., Martinuzzi, S., Penningtonh, D., and Radeloff, V. C.:
Projected land-use change impacts on ecosystem services in the United States,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,
111, 7492–7497, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1405557111, 2014.
Lewis, S. L., Edwards, D. P., and Galbraith, D.:
Increasing human dominance of tropical forests,
Science,
349, 827–832, 2015.
Le Quéré, C., Moriarty, R., Andrew, R. M., Peters, G. P., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, S. D., Sitch, S., Tans, P., Arneth, A., Boden, T. A., Bopp, L., Bozec, Y., Canadell, J. G., Chini, L. P., Chevallier, F., Cosca, C. E., Harris, I., Hoppema, M., Houghton, R. A., House, J. I., Jain, A. K., Johannessen, T., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Kitidis, V., Klein Goldewijk, K., Koven, C., Landa, C. S., Landschützer, P., Lenton, A., Lima, I. D., Marland, G., Mathis, J. T., Metzl, N., Nojiri, Y., Olsen, A., Ono, T., Peng, S., Peters, W., Pfeil, B., Poulter, B., Raupach, M. R., Regnier, P., Rödenbeck, C., Saito, S., Salisbury, J. E., Schuster, U., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Segschneider, J., Steinhoff, T., Stocker, B. D., Sutton, A. J., Takahashi, T., Tilbrook, B., van der Werf, G. R., Viovy, N., Wang, Y.-P., Wanninkhof, R., Wiltshire, A., and Zeng, N.: Global carbon budget 2014, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-47-2015, 2015.
Lindeskog, M., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Waha, K., Seaquist, J., Olin, S., and Smith, B.: Implications of accounting for land use in simulations of ecosystem carbon cycling in Africa, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 385–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-385-2013, 2013.
Liu, X., Yu, L., Sia, Y., Zhang, C., Lu, H., Yu, C., and Gong, P.:
Identifying patterns and hotspots of global land cover transitions using the ESA CCI land cover dataset,
Remote Sens. Lett.,
9, 972–981, https://doi.org/10.1080/2150704X.2018.1500070, 2018.
Lobell, D. B., Cassman, K. G., and Field, C. B.:
Crop Yield Gaps: Their Importance, Magnitudes, and Causes,
Annu. Rev. Env. Resour.,
34, 179–204, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.environ.041008.093740, 2009.
Lotze-Campen, H., Müller, C., Bondeau, A., Rost, S., Popp, A., and Lucht, W.:
Global food demand, productivity growth, and the scarcity of land and water resources: A spatially explicit mathematical programming approach,
Agr. Econ.,
39, 325–338, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00336.x, 2008.
Meiyappan, P., Dalton, M., O'Neill, B. C., and Jain, A. K.:
Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale,
Ecol. Model.,
291, 152–174, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.07.027, 2014.
Meyfroidt, P., Abeygunawardane, D., Ramankutty, N., Thomson, A., and Zeleke, G.:
Interactions between land systems and food systems,
Curr. Opin. Env. Sust.,
38, 60–67, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2019.04.010, 2019.
Millar, C. I. and Stephenson, N. L.:
Temperate forest health in an era of emerging megadisturbance,
Science,
349, 823–826, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa9933, 2015.
Moore, F. C. and Lobell, D. B.:
The fingerprint of climate trends on european crop yields,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,
112, 2970–2975, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1409606112, 2015.
Mueller, N. D., Gerber, J. S., Johnston, M., Ray, D. K., Ramankutty, N., and Foley, J. A.:
Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management,
Nature,
490, 254–257, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11420, 2012.
Nepstad, D., Mcgrath, D., Stickler, C., Alencar, A., Azevedo, A., Swette, B., Bezerra, T., Digiano, M., Shimada, J., Seroa, R., Armijo, E., Castello, L., Brando, P., Hansen, M. C., Mcgrath-horn, M., Carvalho, O., and Hess, L.:
Slowing Amazon deforestation through public policy and interventions in beef and soy supply chains,
Science,
344, 1118–1123, 2014.
Nilsson, M. and Persson, Å.:
Can Earth system interactions be governed? Governance functions for linking climate change mitigation with land use, freshwater and biodiversity protection,
Ecol. Econ.,
75, 61–71, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.12.015, 2012.
Nishina, K., Ito, A., Falloon, P., Friend, A. D., Beerling, D. J., Ciais, P., Clark, D. B., Kahana, R., Kato, E., Lucht, W., Lomas, M., Pavlick, R., Schaphoff, S., Warszawaski, L., and Yokohata, T.: Decomposing uncertainties in the future terrestrial carbon budget associated with emission scenarios, climate projections, and ecosystem simulations using the ISI-MIP results, Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 435–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-435-2015, 2015.
Noojipady, P., Morton, C. D., Macedo, N. M., Victoria, C. D., Huang, C., Gibbs, K. H., and Bolfe, L. E.:
Forest carbon emissions from cropland expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado biome,
Environ. Res. Lett.,
12, 025004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5986, 2017.
O'Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K. L., Hallegatte, S., Carter, T. R., Mathur, R., and van Vuuren, D. P.:
A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways,
Climatic Change,
122, 387–400, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2, 2014.
Olin, S., Schurgers, G., Lindeskog, M., Wårlind, D., Smith, B., Bodin, P., Holmér, J., and Arneth, A.: Modelling the response of yields and tissue C:N to changes in atmospheric CO2 and N management in the main wheat regions of western Europe, Biogeosciences, 12, 2489–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015, 2015.
Ostberg, S., Lucht, W., Schaphoff, S., and Gerten, D.: Critical impacts of global warming on land ecosystems, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 347–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-347-2013, 2013.
Pala, M., Oweis, T., Benli, B., De Pauw, E., El Mourid, M., Karrou, M., Jamal, M., and Zencirci, N.:
Assessment of wheat yield gap in the Mediterranean: case studies from Morocco, Syria and Turkey,
International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), Aleppo, Syria, 2011.
Park, A., Puettmann, K., Wilson, E., Messier, C., Kames, S., and Dhar, A.:
Can Boreal and Temperate Forest Management be Adapted to the Uncertainties of 21st Century Climate Change?,
Crit. Rev. Plant Sci.,
33, 251–285, https://doi.org/10.1080/07352689.2014.858956, 2014.
Piao, S., Friedlingstein, P., Ciais, P., De Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Labat, D., and Zaehle, S.:
Changes in climate and land use have a larger direct impact than rising CO2 on global river runoff trends,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,
104, 15242–15247, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0707213104, 2007.
Popp, A., Humpenöder, F., Weindl, I., Bodirsky, B. L., Bonsch, M., Lotze-Campen, H., Müller, C., Biewald, A., Rolinski, S., Stevanovic, M., and Dietrich, J. P.:
Land-use protection for climate change mitigation,
Nat. Clim. Change,
4, 1095–1098, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2444, 2014.
Popp, A., Calvin, K., Fujimori, S., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Stehfest, E., Bodirsky, B. L., Dietrich, J. P., Doelmann, J. C., Gusti, M., Hasegawa, T., Kyle, P., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A., Takahashi, K., Valin, H., Waldhoff, S., Weindl, I., Wise, M., Kriegler, E., Lotze-Campen, H., Fricko, O., Riahi, K., and van Vuuren, D. P.:
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways,
Global Environ. Change,
42, 331–345, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.002, 2017.
Prestele, R., Alexander, P., Rounsevell, M., Arneth, A., Calvin, K., Doelman, J., Eitelberg, D., Engström, K., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Jain, A., Krisztin, T., Kyle, P., Meiyappan, P., Popp, A., Sands, R., Schaldach, R., Schüngel, J., Stehfest, E., Tabeau, A., and Van Meijl, H.:
Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison,
Global Change Biol.,
22, 3967–3983, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13337, 2016.
Pugh, T. A. M., Arneth, A., Olin, S., Ahlström, A., Bayer, A. D., Goldewijk, K. K., Lindeskog, M., and Schurgers, G.:
Simulated carbon emissions from land-use change are substantially enhanced by accounting for agricultural management,
Environ. Res. Lett.,
10, 124008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124008, 2015.
Pugh, T. A. M., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Folberth, C., Olin, S., Schmid, E., and Arneth, A.:
Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change,
Nat. Commun.,
7, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms12608, 2016.
Pugh, T. A. M., Jones, C. D., Huntingford, C., Burton, C., Arneth, A., Brovkin, V., Ciais, P., Lomas, M., Robertson, E., Piao, S. L., and Sitch, S.:
A Large Committed Long-Term Sink of Carbon due to Vegetation Dynamics,
Earths Future,
6, 1413–1432, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000935, 2018.
Pugh, T. A. M., Arneth, A., Kautz, M., Poulter, B., and Smith, B.:
Important role of forest disturbances in the global biomass turnover and carbon sinks,
Nat. Geosci.,
12, 730–735, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0427-2, 2019.
Qiao, Y., Zhang, H., Dong, B., Shi, C., Li, Y., Zhai, H., and Liu, M.:
Effects of elevated CO2 concentration on growth and water use efficiency of winter wheat under two soil water regimes,
Agr. Water Manage,
97, 1742–1748, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2010.06.007, 2010.
Rabin, S. S., Alexander, P., Henry, R., Anthoni, P., Pugh, T. A. M., Rounsevell, M., and Arneth, A.: Impacts of future agricultural change on ecosystem service indicators, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 357–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020, 2020.
Ramankutty, N., Evan, A. T., Monfreda, C., and Foley, J. A.:
Farming the planet: 1. Geographic distribution of global agricultural lands in the year 2000,
Global Biogeochem. Cy.,
22, 1–19, 2008.
Reilly, J., Melillo, J., Cai, Y., Kicklighter, D., Gurgel, A., Paltsev, S., Cronin, T., Sokolov, A., and Schlosser, A.:
Using Land To Mitigate Climate Change: Hitting the Target, Recognizing the Trade-offs,
Environ. Sci. Technol.,
46, 5672–5679, https://doi.org/10.1021/es2034729, 2012.
Salmon, J. M., Friedl, M. A., Frolking, S., Wisser, D., and Douglas, E. M.:
Global rain-fed, irrigated, and paddy croplands: A new high resolution map derived from remote sensing, crop inventories and climate data,
Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs.,
38, 321–334, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2015.01.014, 2015.
Salvati, L., Sabbi, A., Smiraglia, D., and Zitti, M.:
Does forest expansion mitigate the risk of desertification? Exploring soil degradation and land-use changes in a Mediterranean country,
Int. For. Rev.,
16, 485–496, https://doi.org/10.1505/146554814813484149, 2014.
Schaphoff, S., Lucht, W., Gerten, D., Sitch, S., Cramer, W., and Prentice, I. C.:
Terrestrial biosphere carbon storage under alternative climate projections,
Climatic Change,
74, 97–122, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9002-5, 2006.
Schmitz, C., van Meijl, H., Kyle, P., Nelson, G. C., Fujimori, S., Gurgel, A., Havlik, P., Heyhoe, E., D'Croz, D. M., Popp, A., Sands, R., Tabeau, A., van der Mensbrugghe, D., von Lampe, M., Wise, M., Blanc, E., Hasegawa, T., Kavallari, A., and Valin, H.:
Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: Insights from a global agro-economic model comparison,
Agr. Econ.,
45, 69–84, https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12090, 2014.
Scholze, M., Knorr, W., Arnell, N. W., and Prentice, I. C.:
A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems.,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,
103, 13116–13120, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0601816103, 2006.
Schulp, Burkhard, B., Maes, J., Van Vliet, J., and Verburg, P. H.:
Uncertainties in ecosystem service maps: A comparison on the European scale,
PLoS One,
9, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0109643, 2014.
Shin, Y.-J., Arneth, A., Chowdhury, R. R., Guy F. Midgley, Bukvareva, E., Heinimann, A., Horcea-Milcu, A. I., Kolb, M., Leadley, P., Oberdorff, T., Madruga, R. P., Rondinini, C., Saito, O., Sathyapalan, J., Boafo, Y. A., Kindlmann, P., Yue, T., Krenova, Z., and Osano, P.:
Chapter 4, Plausible futures of nature, its contributions to people and their good quality of life,
in: IPBES Global Assessment on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services,
Intergovernmental Science Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Bonn, Germany, 264 pp., 2019.
Smith, B., Wårlind, D., Arneth, A., Hickler, T., Leadley, P., Siltberg, J., and Zaehle, S.: Implications of incorporating N cycling and N limitations on primary production in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model, Biogeosciences, 11, 2027–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014, 2014.
Stehfest, E., Vuuren, D. van, Kram, T., and Bouwma, L.:
Integrated Assessment of Global Environmental Change with IMAGE 3.0. Model description and policy applications,
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, the Netherlands, 2014.
Stehfest, E., van Zeist, W. J., Valin, H., Havlik, P., Popp, A., Kyle, P., Tabeau, A., Mason-D'Croz, D., Hasegawa, T., Bodirsky, B. L., Calvin, K., Doelman, J. C., Fujimori, S., Humpenöder, F., Lotze-Campen, H., van Meijl, H., and Wiebe, K.:
Key determinants of global land-use projections,
Nat. Commun.,
10, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w, 2019.
Stepanov, O., Câmara, G., and Verstegen, J. A.:
Quantifying the Effect of Land Use Change Model Coupling,
Land,
9, 52, https://doi.org/10.3390/land9020052, 2020.
Sterling, S. M., Ducharne, A., and Polcher, J.:
The impact of global land-cover change on the terrestrial water cycle,
Nat.
Climatic Change,
3, 385–390, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1690, 2013.
Strassburg, B. B. N., Beyer, H. L., Crouzeilles, R., Iribarrem, A., Barros, F., de Siqueira, M. F., Sánchez-Tapia, A., Balmford, A., Sansevero, J. B. B., Brancalion, P. H. S., Broadbent, E. N., Chazdon, R. L., Filho, A. O., Gardner, T. A., Gordon, A., Latawiec, A., Loyola, R., Metzger, J. P., Mills, M., Possingham, H. P., Rodrigues, R. R., Scaramuzza, C. A. de M., Scarano, F. R., Tambosi, L., and Uriarte, M.:
Strategic approaches to restoring ecosystems can triple conservation gains and halve costs,
Nature Ecology & Evolution,
3, 62–70, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-018-0743-8, 2019.
Sulser, T. B., Mason-D'Croz, D., Islam, S., Robinson, S., Wiebe, K., and Rosegrant, M. W.:
Beyond a middle income Africa Transforming African economies for sustained growth with rising employment and incomes, ReSAKSS Annual trends and outlook report 2014,
Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC, USA, 2015.
Taubert, F., Fischer, R., Groeneveld, J., Lehmann, S., Müller, M. S., Rödig, E., Wiegand, T., and Huth, A.:
Global patterns of tropical forest fragmentation,
Nature,
554, 519–522, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature25508, 2018.
van Asselen, S. and Verburg, P. H.:
Land cover change or land-use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model,
Global Change Biol.,
19, 3648–67, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12331, 2013.
van Vliet, J., Bregt, A. K., Brown, D. G., van Delden, H., Heckbert, S., and Verburg, P. H.:
A review of current calibration and validation practices in land-change modeling,
Environ. Modell. Softw.,
82, 174–182, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.04.017, 2016.
van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., O'Neill, B. C., Ebi, K. L., Riahi, K., Carter, T. R., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Mathur, R., and Winkler, H.:
A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture,
Climatic Change,
122, 373–386, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1, 2014.
Verburg, P. H., Neumann, K., and Nol, L.:
Challenges in using land use and land cover data for global change studies,
Global Change Biol.,
17, 974–989, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02307.x, 2011.
Von Lampe, M., Willenbockel, D., Ahammad, H., Blanc, E., Cai, Y., Calvin, K., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heyhoe, E., Kyle, P., Lotze-Campen, H., Mason d'Croz, D., Nelson, G. C., Sands, R. D., Schmitz, C., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van der Mensbrugghe, D., and van Meijl, H.:
Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP global economic model intercomparison,
Agr. Econ.,
45, 3–20, https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12086, 2014.
Wang, X., Biewald, A., Dietrich, J. P., Schmitz, C., Lotze-Campen, H., Humpenöder, F., Bodirsky, B. L., and Popp, A.:
Taking account of governance: Implications for land-use dynamics, food prices, and trade patterns,
Ecol. Econ.,
122, 12–24, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.11.018, 2016.
Wårlind, D., Smith, B., Hickler, T., and Arneth, A.: Nitrogen feedbacks increase future terrestrial ecosystem carbon uptake in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model, Biogeosciences, 11, 6131–6146, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6131-2014, 2014.
Warszawski, L., Frieler, K., Huber, V., Piontek, F., Serdeczny, O., and Schewe, J.:
The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,
111, 3228–3232, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312330110, 2014.
Winkler, K., Fuchs, R., Rounsevell, M., and Herold, M.:
Global land use changes are four times greater than previously assumed,
Nat. Commun.,
in review, 2021.
Short summary
Many projections of future land-use/-cover exist. We evaluate a number of these and determine the variability they cause in ecosystems and their services. We found that projections differ a lot in regional patterns, with some patterns being at least questionable in a historical context. Across ecosystem service indicators, resulting variability until 2040 was highest in crop production. Results emphasize that such variability should be acknowledged in assessments of future ecosystem provisions.
Many projections of future land-use/-cover exist. We evaluate a number of these and determine...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint