Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services

Bayer, Anita D.; Fuchs, Richard; Mey, Reinhard; Krause, Andreas; Verburg, Peter H.; Anthoni, Peter; Arneth, Almut

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021

Articles | Volume 12, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 12, issue 1

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

30 Mar 2021

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 30 Mar 2021

Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services

Anita D. Bayer, Richard Fuchs, Reinhard Mey, Andreas Krause, Peter H. Verburg, Peter Anthoni, and Almut Arneth

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Final revised paper (published on 30 Mar 2021)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 26 Jun 2020)
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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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SC1: 'Comment about model-coupling mismatches and LUC scenario projections', Judith Verstegen, 01 Jul 2020
- AC3: 'Reply to Judith Verstegen', Anita Bayer, 02 Dec 2020
RC1: 'Review comment', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 Aug 2020
- AC1: 'Reply to Anonymous Referee #1', Anita Bayer, 02 Dec 2020
RC2: 'Review comment', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Aug 2020
- AC2: 'Reply to Anonymous Referee #2', Anita Bayer, 02 Dec 2020

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (10 Dec 2020) by Somnath Baidya Roy

AR by Anita Bayer on behalf of the Authors (04 Jan 2021) Author's response Author's tracked changes Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (13 Jan 2021) by Somnath Baidya Roy

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (14 Jan 2021)

RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (24 Jan 2021)

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (02 Feb 2021) by Somnath Baidya Roy

AR by Anita Bayer on behalf of the Authors (10 Feb 2021) Author's response Author's tracked changes Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (14 Feb 2021) by Somnath Baidya Roy

AR by Anita Bayer on behalf of the Authors (17 Feb 2021) Manuscript

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Short summary

Many projections of future land-use/-cover exist. We evaluate a number of these and determine the variability they cause in ecosystems and their services. We found that projections differ a lot in regional patterns, with some patterns being at least questionable in a historical context. Across ecosystem service indicators, resulting variability until 2040 was highest in crop production. Results emphasize that such variability should be acknowledged in assessments of future ecosystem provisions.