Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 327–351, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 327–351, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021

Research article 30 Mar 2021

Research article | 30 Mar 2021

Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services

Anita D. Bayer et al.

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Latest update: 16 Apr 2021
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Short summary
Many projections of future land-use/-cover exist. We evaluate a number of these and determine the variability they cause in ecosystems and their services. We found that projections differ a lot in regional patterns, with some patterns being at least questionable in a historical context. Across ecosystem service indicators, resulting variability until 2040 was highest in crop production. Results emphasize that such variability should be acknowledged in assessments of future ecosystem provisions.
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