Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
30 Mar 2021
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 30 Mar 2021
| 30 Mar 2021
Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services
Anita D. Bayer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Richard Fuchs
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Reinhard Mey
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Andreas Krause
Technical University of Munich, TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, 85354 Freising, Germany
Peter H. Verburg
Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, 1081HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Peter Anthoni
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Almut Arneth
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
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- Changes in multiple ecosystem services and their influencing factors in Nordic countries X. Hu et al. 10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109847
- Prediction of the potential distribution pattern of the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) under climate change based on ensemble modelling X. Wen et al. 10.1002/ps.6939
- Integrated high-resolution, continental-scale land change forecasting M. Calderón-Loor et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105749
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Latest update: 13 Dec 2024
Short summary
Many projections of future land-use/-cover exist. We evaluate a number of these and determine the variability they cause in ecosystems and their services. We found that projections differ a lot in regional patterns, with some patterns being at least questionable in a historical context. Across ecosystem service indicators, resulting variability until 2040 was highest in crop production. Results emphasize that such variability should be acknowledged in assessments of future ecosystem provisions.
Many projections of future land-use/-cover exist. We evaluate a number of these and determine...
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