Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 327–351, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 327–351, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021

Research article 30 Mar 2021

Research article | 30 Mar 2021

Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services

Anita D. Bayer et al.

Data sets

Bias corrected GCM input data for ISIMIP Fast Track S. Hempel, K. Frieler, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, and F. Piontek https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2016.001

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Short summary
Many projections of future land-use/-cover exist. We evaluate a number of these and determine the variability they cause in ecosystems and their services. We found that projections differ a lot in regional patterns, with some patterns being at least questionable in a historical context. Across ecosystem service indicators, resulting variability until 2040 was highest in crop production. Results emphasize that such variability should be acknowledged in assessments of future ecosystem provisions.
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