Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services

Bayer, Anita D.; Fuchs, Richard; Mey, Reinhard; Krause, Andreas; Verburg, Peter H.; Anthoni, Peter; Arneth, Almut

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021

Articles | Volume 12, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 12, issue 1

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

30 Mar 2021

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 30 Mar 2021

Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services

Anita D. Bayer, Richard Fuchs, Reinhard Mey, Andreas Krause, Peter H. Verburg, Peter Anthoni, and Almut Arneth

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-327-2021-supplement

Data sets

Bias corrected GCM input data for ISIMIP Fast Track S. Hempel, K. Frieler, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, and F. Piontek https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2016.001

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Short summary

Many projections of future land-use/-cover exist. We evaluate a number of these and determine the variability they cause in ecosystems and their services. We found that projections differ a lot in regional patterns, with some patterns being at least questionable in a historical context. Across ecosystem service indicators, resulting variability until 2040 was highest in crop production. Results emphasize that such variability should be acknowledged in assessments of future ecosystem provisions.