Articles | Volume 10, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019
Research article
 | 
21 Aug 2019
Research article |  | 21 Aug 2019

Investigating the applicability of emergent constraints

Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, and Victor Brovkin

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AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (01 Apr 2019) by Vivek Arora
AR by Alexander J. Winkler on behalf of the Authors (06 Jun 2019)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (10 Jul 2019) by Vivek Arora
AR by Alexander J. Winkler on behalf of the Authors (11 Jul 2019)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (25 Jul 2019) by Vivek Arora
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Short summary
The concept of emergent constraints is a key method to reduce uncertainty in multi-model climate projections using historical simulations and observations. Here, we present an in-depth analysis of the applicability of the method and uncover possible limitations. Key limitations are a lack of comparability (temporal, spatial, and conceptual) between models and observations and the disagreement between models on system dynamics throughout different levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration.
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