Articles | Volume 10, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Investigating the applicability of emergent constraints
Alexander J. Winkler
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Ranga B. Myneni
Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215, USA
Victor Brovkin
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
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Cited
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Hybrid modeling of evapotranspiration: inferring stomatal and aerodynamic resistances using combined physics-based and machine learning R. ElGhawi et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acbbe0
- Field-based tree mortality constraint reduces estimates of model-projected forest carbon sinks K. Yu et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-29619-4
- Slowdown of the greening trend in natural vegetation with further rise in atmospheric CO2 A. Winkler et al. 10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021
- Emergent constraints for the climate system as effective parameters of bulk differential equations C. Huntingford et al. 10.5194/esd-14-433-2023
- Carbon system state determines warming potential of emissions A. Winkler et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0306128
- Underestimating global land greening: Future vegetation changes and their impacts on terrestrial water loss Y. Chai et al. 10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101176
- An emergent constraint on the thermal sensitivity of photosynthesis and greenness in the high latitude northern forests J. Liu & P. Wennberg 10.1038/s41598-024-56362-1
- Constraining Uncertainty in Projected Gross Primary Production With Machine Learning M. Schlund et al. 10.1029/2019JG005619
- Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity Y. Wang et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-34071-5
- Emergent constraints on climate sensitivities M. Williamson et al. 10.1103/RevModPhys.93.025004
- A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to rising CO2 T. Keenan et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01867-2
- RETRACTED ARTICLE: A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to increasing CO2 T. Keenan et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-04096-9
- The Dependence of Ecosystem Water Use Partitioning on Vegetation Productivity at the Inter‐Annual Time Scale Z. Jing et al. 10.1029/2020JD033756
- Uncertainty and Emergent Constraints on Enhanced Ecosystem Carbon Stock by Land Greening C. Bian et al. 10.1029/2022MS003397
- CMIP6 ESMs overestimate greening and the photosynthesis trends in Dryland East Asia Y. Xiao et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173432
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Hybrid modeling of evapotranspiration: inferring stomatal and aerodynamic resistances using combined physics-based and machine learning R. ElGhawi et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/acbbe0
- Field-based tree mortality constraint reduces estimates of model-projected forest carbon sinks K. Yu et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-29619-4
- Slowdown of the greening trend in natural vegetation with further rise in atmospheric CO2 A. Winkler et al. 10.5194/bg-18-4985-2021
- Emergent constraints for the climate system as effective parameters of bulk differential equations C. Huntingford et al. 10.5194/esd-14-433-2023
- Carbon system state determines warming potential of emissions A. Winkler et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0306128
- Underestimating global land greening: Future vegetation changes and their impacts on terrestrial water loss Y. Chai et al. 10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101176
- An emergent constraint on the thermal sensitivity of photosynthesis and greenness in the high latitude northern forests J. Liu & P. Wennberg 10.1038/s41598-024-56362-1
- Constraining Uncertainty in Projected Gross Primary Production With Machine Learning M. Schlund et al. 10.1029/2019JG005619
- Quantification of human contribution to soil moisture-based terrestrial aridity Y. Wang et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-34071-5
- Emergent constraints on climate sensitivities M. Williamson et al. 10.1103/RevModPhys.93.025004
- A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to rising CO2 T. Keenan et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01867-2
- RETRACTED ARTICLE: A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to increasing CO2 T. Keenan et al. 10.1038/s41586-021-04096-9
- The Dependence of Ecosystem Water Use Partitioning on Vegetation Productivity at the Inter‐Annual Time Scale Z. Jing et al. 10.1029/2020JD033756
- Uncertainty and Emergent Constraints on Enhanced Ecosystem Carbon Stock by Land Greening C. Bian et al. 10.1029/2022MS003397
- CMIP6 ESMs overestimate greening and the photosynthesis trends in Dryland East Asia Y. Xiao et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173432
Latest update: 21 Feb 2025
Short summary
The concept of
emergent constraintsis a key method to reduce uncertainty in multi-model climate projections using historical simulations and observations. Here, we present an in-depth analysis of the applicability of the method and uncover possible limitations. Key limitations are a lack of comparability (temporal, spatial, and conceptual) between models and observations and the disagreement between models on system dynamics throughout different levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration.
The concept of
emergent constraintsis a key method to reduce uncertainty in multi-model climate...
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