Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 10, issue 3
Articles | Volume 10, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-501-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 10, issue 3
Research article
 | 
21 Aug 2019
Research article |  | 21 Aug 2019

Investigating the applicability of emergent constraints

Alexander J. Winkler, Ranga B. Myneni, and Victor Brovkin

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Short summary
The concept of emergent constraints is a key method to reduce uncertainty in multi-model climate projections using historical simulations and observations. Here, we present an in-depth analysis of the applicability of the method and uncover possible limitations. Key limitations are a lack of comparability (temporal, spatial, and conceptual) between models and observations and the disagreement between models on system dynamics throughout different levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration.
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