Projected changes in crop yield mean and  variability over West Africa in a world  1.5&thinsp;K warmer than the pre-industrial era

Parkes, Ben; Defrance, Dimitri; Sultan, Benjamin; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Xuhui

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018

Articles | Volume 9, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

The Earth system at a global warming of 1.5°C and 2.0°C

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 9, issue 1

Research article

|

20 Feb 2018

Research article |

| 20 Feb 2018

Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5 K warmer than the pre-industrial era

Ben Parkes, Dimitri Defrance, Benjamin Sultan, Philippe Ciais, and Xuhui Wang

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Final revised paper (published on 20 Feb 2018)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 06 Jul 2017)
Supplement to the preprint

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

- Printer-friendly version

- Supplement

RC1: 'Review', Nir Krakauer, 26 Jul 2017
- AC1: 'Author responses', Ben Parkes, 06 Oct 2017
RC2: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Aug 2017
- AC2: 'Author responses', Ben Parkes, 06 Oct 2017
RC3: 'Review for esd-2017-66', Anonymous Referee #3, 24 Aug 2017
- AC3: 'Author responses', Ben Parkes, 06 Oct 2017

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (10 Oct 2017) by Zhenghui Xie

AR by Anna Wenzel on behalf of the Authors (26 Oct 2017) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (06 Jan 2018) by Zhenghui Xie

AR by Ben Parkes on behalf of the Authors (18 Jan 2018) Author's response Manuscript

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Short summary

We present an analysis of three crops in West Africa and their response to short-term climate change in a world where temperatures are 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels. We show that the number of crop failures for all crops is due to increase in the future climate. We further show the difference in yield change across several West African countries and show that the yields are not expected to increase fast enough to prevent food shortages.