Articles | Volume 9, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018
Research article
 | 
20 Feb 2018
Research article |  | 20 Feb 2018

Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5 K warmer than the pre-industrial era

Ben Parkes, Dimitri Defrance, Benjamin Sultan, Philippe Ciais, and Xuhui Wang

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Cited articles

Baron, C., Sultan, B., Balme, M., Sarr, B., Traore, S., Lebel, T., Janicot, S., and Dingkuhn, M.: From GCM grid cell to agricultural plot: scale issues affecting modelling of climate impact, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. Lond. B, 360, 2095–2108, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1741, 2005. a
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Berg, A., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Sultan, B., Lengaigne, M., and Guimberteau, M.: Projections of climate change impacts on potential {C4} crop productivity over tropical regions, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 170, 89–102, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.12.003, 2013. a, b
Biasutti, M. and Sobel, A. H.: Delayed Sahel rainfall and global seasonal cycle in a warmer climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, l23707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041303, 2009. a
Challinor, A. J., Wheeler, T., Craufurd, P., Slingo, J., and Grimes, D.: Design and optimisation of a large-area process-based model for annual crops, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 124, 99–120, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.01.002, 2004. a, b
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We present an analysis of three crops in West Africa and their response to short-term climate change in a world where temperatures are 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels. We show that the number of crop failures for all crops is due to increase in the future climate. We further show the difference in yield change across several West African countries and show that the yields are not expected to increase fast enough to prevent food shortages.
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