Articles | Volume 9, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018
Research article
 | 
20 Feb 2018
Research article |  | 20 Feb 2018

Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5 K warmer than the pre-industrial era

Ben Parkes, Dimitri Defrance, Benjamin Sultan, Philippe Ciais, and Xuhui Wang

Related authors

Global Carbon Budget 2024
Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Corinne Le Quéré, Hongmei Li, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Are Olsen, Glen P. Peters, Wouter Peters, Julia Pongratz, Clemens Schwingshackl, Stephen Sitch, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Simone R. Alin, Almut Arneth, Vivek Arora, Nicholas R. Bates, Meike Becker, Nicolas Bellouin, Carla F. Berghoff, Henry C. Bittig, Laurent Bopp, Patricia Cadule, Katie Campbell, Matthew A. Chamberlain, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Louise P. Chini, Thomas Colligan, Jeanne Decayeux, Laique Djeutchouang, Xinyu Dou, Carolina Duran Rojas, Kazutaka Enyo, Wiley Evans, Amanda Fay, Richard A. Feely, Daniel J. Ford, Adrianna Foster, Thomas Gasser, Marion Gehlen, Thanos Gkritzalis, Giacomo Grassi, Luke Gregor, Nicolas Gruber, Özgür Gürses, Ian Harris, Matthew Hefner, Jens Heinke, George C. Hurtt, Yosuke Iida, Tatiana Ilyina, Andrew R. Jacobson, Atul Jain, Tereza Jarníková, Annika Jersild, Fei Jiang, Zhe Jin, Etsushi Kato, Ralph F. Keeling, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Jürgen Knauer, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Siv K. Lauvset, Nathalie Lefèvre, Zhu Liu, Junjie Liu, Lei Ma, Shamil Maksyutov, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Mayot, Patrick McGuire, Nicolas Metzl, Natalie M. Monacci, Eric J. Morgan, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Craig Neill, Yosuke Niwa, Tobias Nützel, Lea Olivier, Tsuneo Ono, Paul I. Palmer, Denis Pierrot, Zhangcai Qin, Laure Resplandy, Alizée Roobaert, Thais M. Rosan, Christian Rödenbeck, Jörg Schwinger, T. Luke Smallman, Stephen Smith, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Tobias Steinhoff, Qing Sun, Adrienne J. Sutton, Roland Séférian, Shintaro Takao, Hiroaki Tatebe, Hanqin Tian, Bronte Tilbrook, Olivier Torres, Etienne Tourigny, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Francesco Tubiello, Guido van der Werf, Rik Wanninkhof, Xuhui Wang, Dongxu Yang, Xiaojuan Yang, Zhen Yu, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle, Ning Zeng, and Jiye Zeng
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-519,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-519, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Global gridded NOx emissions using TROPOMI observations
Anthony Rey-Pommier, Alexandre Héraud, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Theodoros Christoudias, Jonilda Kushta, and Jean Sciare
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-410,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-410, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
The GIEMS-MethaneCentric database: a dynamic and comprehensive global product of methane-emitting aquatic areas
Juliette Bernard, Catherine Prigent, Carlos Jimenez, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Bernhard Lehner, Elodie Salmon, Philippe Ciais, Zhen Zhang, Shushi Peng, and Marielle Saunois
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-466,https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-466, 2024
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Development and deployment of a mid-cost CO2 sensor monitoring network to support atmospheric inverse modeling for quantifying urban CO2 emissions in Paris
Jinghui Lian, Olivier Laurent, Mali Chariot, Luc Lienhardt, Michel Ramonet, Hervé Utard, Thomas Lauvaux, François-Marie Bréon, Grégoire Broquet, Karina Cucchi, Laurent Millair, and Philippe Ciais
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 5821–5839, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5821-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5821-2024, 2024
Short summary
The monitoring network of greenhouse gas (CO2, CH4) in the Paris' region
Josselin Doc, Michel Ramonet, François-Marie Bréon, Delphine Combaz, Mali Chariot, Morgan Lopez, Marc Delmotte, Cristelle Cailteau-Fischbach, Guillaume Nief, Nathanaël Laporte, Thomas Lauvaux, and Philippe Ciais
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2826,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2826, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary

Related subject area

Earth system interactions with the biosphere: landuse
The biogeophysical effects of idealized land cover and land management changes in Earth system models
Steven J. De Hertog, Felix Havermann, Inne Vanderkelen, Suqi Guo, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Dim Coumou, Edouard L. Davin, Gregory Duveiller, Quentin Lejeune, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 629–667, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-629-2023, 2023
Short summary
The response of the regional longwave radiation balance and climate system in Europe to an idealized afforestation experiment
Marcus Breil, Felix Krawczyk, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 243–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-243-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-243-2023, 2023
Short summary
Comparison of uncertainties in land-use change fluxes from bookkeeping model parameterisation
Ana Bastos, Kerstin Hartung, Tobias B. Nützel, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Richard A. Houghton, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 745–762, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-745-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-745-2021, 2021
Short summary
Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tammas Loughran, Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Felix Havermann, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniel S. Goll, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Michael O. Sullivan, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Soenke Zaehle, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 635–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021, 2021
Short summary
Biases in the albedo sensitivity to deforestation in CMIP5 models and their impacts on the associated historical radiative forcing
Quentin Lejeune, Edouard L. Davin, Grégory Duveiller, Bas Crezee, Ronny Meier, Alessandro Cescatti, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1209–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1209-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1209-2020, 2020
Short summary

Cited articles

Baron, C., Sultan, B., Balme, M., Sarr, B., Traore, S., Lebel, T., Janicot, S., and Dingkuhn, M.: From GCM grid cell to agricultural plot: scale issues affecting modelling of climate impact, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. Lond. B, 360, 2095–2108, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1741, 2005. a
Bentsen, M., Bethke, I., Debernard, J. B., Iversen, T., Kirkevåg, A., Seland, Ø., Drange, H., Roelandt, C., Seierstad, I. A., Hoose, C., and Kristjánsson, J. E.: The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 687–720, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013, 2013. a
Berg, A., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Sultan, B., Lengaigne, M., and Guimberteau, M.: Projections of climate change impacts on potential {C4} crop productivity over tropical regions, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 170, 89–102, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.12.003, 2013. a, b
Biasutti, M. and Sobel, A. H.: Delayed Sahel rainfall and global seasonal cycle in a warmer climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, l23707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041303, 2009. a
Challinor, A. J., Wheeler, T., Craufurd, P., Slingo, J., and Grimes, D.: Design and optimisation of a large-area process-based model for annual crops, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 124, 99–120, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2004.01.002, 2004. a, b
Download
Short summary
We present an analysis of three crops in West Africa and their response to short-term climate change in a world where temperatures are 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels. We show that the number of crop failures for all crops is due to increase in the future climate. We further show the difference in yield change across several West African countries and show that the yields are not expected to increase fast enough to prevent food shortages.