Articles | Volume 9, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-119-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
20 Feb 2018
Research article |
| 20 Feb 2018
| 20 Feb 2018
Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5 K warmer than the pre-industrial era
Ben Parkes
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Sorbonne Universités, UPMC, Univ. Paris 06 – CNRS-IRD-MNHN LOCEAN/IPSL, 4 Place Jussieu, 75005 Paris, France
Dimitri Defrance
ESPACE-DEV, Univ. Montpellier, IRD, Univ. Guyane, Univ. Réunion, Univ. Antilles, Univ. Avignon, Avignon, France
Benjamin Sultan
ESPACE-DEV, Univ. Montpellier, IRD, Univ. Guyane, Univ. Réunion, Univ. Antilles, Univ. Avignon, Avignon, France
Philippe Ciais
IPSL – LSCE, CEA CNRS UVSQ UPSaclay, Centre d'Etudes Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, France
Xuhui Wang
IPSL – LSCE, CEA CNRS UVSQ UPSaclay, Centre d'Etudes Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, France
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Cited
30 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impact of Climate Change in West Africa on Cereal Production Per Capita in 2050 D. Defrance et al. 10.3390/su12187585
- Future climate change significantly alters interannual wheat yield variability over half of harvested areas W. Liu et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac1fbb
- Responding to harvest failure: Understanding farmers coping strategies in the semi-arid Northern Ghana D. Boansi et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0284328
- Field phenotyping for African crops: overview and perspectives D. Cudjoe et al. 10.3389/fpls.2023.1219673
- Estimating cropland carbon fluxes: A process-based model evaluation at a Swiss crop-rotation site A. Revill et al. 10.1016/j.fcr.2019.02.006
- Investigating the potential impact of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming levels on crop suitability and planting season over West Africa T. Egbebiyi et al. 10.7717/peerj.8851
- Millets for Food Security in the Context of Climate Change: A Review R. Saxena et al. 10.3390/su10072228
- The impact of future climate change and potential adaptation methods on Maize yields in West Africa B. Parkes et al. 10.1007/s10584-018-2290-3
- Evidence of crop production losses in West Africa due to historical global warming in two crop models B. Sultan et al. 10.1038/s41598-019-49167-0
- Weather dataset choice introduces uncertainty to estimates of crop yield responses to climate variability and change B. Parkes et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5ebb
- What can we know about future precipitation in Africa? Robustness, significance and added value of projections from a large ensemble of regional climate models A. Dosio et al. 10.1007/s00382-019-04900-3
- Sugarcane Yield Forecast in Ivory Coast (West Africa) Based on Weather and Vegetation Index Data E. Pignède et al. 10.3390/atmos12111459
- Can reduced tillage buffer the future climate warming effects on maize yield in different soil types of West Africa? E. Nafi et al. 10.1016/j.still.2020.104767
- Extreme climate events in sub-Saharan Africa: A call for improving agricultural technology transfer to enhance adaptive capacity A. Ayanlade et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100311
- Climate change–food security nexus in Burkina Faso E. Hamid 10.1079/PAVSNNR202116009
- Projected change in precipitation and temperature over undivided Sudan and its major cities A. Mohamed et al. 10.1007/s00703-024-01017-z
- Multi-Actors' Co-Implementation of Climate-Smart Village Approach in West Africa: Achievements and Lessons Learnt J. Bayala et al. 10.3389/fsufs.2021.637007
- Modelling climate change impacts on maize C. Chisanga et al. 10.1079/cabireviews202217008
- Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming B. Liu et al. 10.1111/gcb.14542
- Every drop matters: combining population-based and satellite data to investigate the link between lifetime rainfall exposure and chronic undernutrition in children under five years in rural Burkina Faso E. Yeboah et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac661c
- Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for crops in West Africa: a systematic review T. Carr et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac61c8
- Rice yield stability compared to major food crops in West Africa M. Duvallet et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac343a
- Influence of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on temperature mean and precipitation extremes indices in Africa S. Obahoundje et al. 10.1108/IJCCSM-03-2021-0028
- Direct and indirect effects of CO2increase on crop yield in West Africa B. Sultan et al. 10.1002/joc.5960
- Adaptive Introgression: An Untapped Evolutionary Mechanism for Crop Adaptation C. Burgarella et al. 10.3389/fpls.2019.00004
- Current needs for climate services in West Africa: Results from two stakeholder surveys B. Sultan et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100166
- Benchmarking statistical modelling approaches with multi-source remote sensing data for millet yield monitoring: a case study of the groundnut basin in central Senegal Y. Gbodjo et al. 10.1080/01431161.2021.1993465
- Economic impacts of climate-induced crop yield changes: evidence from agri-food industries in six countries D. Wang et al. 10.1007/s10584-021-03062-8
- Calibrating the STICS soil-crop model to explore the impact of agroforestry parklands on millet growth S. Sow et al. 10.1016/j.fcr.2023.109206
- Assessing Future Spatio-Temporal Changes in Crop Suitability and Planting Season over West Africa: Using the Concept of Crop-Climate Departure T. Egbebiyi et al. 10.3390/cli7090102
29 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impact of Climate Change in West Africa on Cereal Production Per Capita in 2050 D. Defrance et al. 10.3390/su12187585
- Future climate change significantly alters interannual wheat yield variability over half of harvested areas W. Liu et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac1fbb
- Responding to harvest failure: Understanding farmers coping strategies in the semi-arid Northern Ghana D. Boansi et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0284328
- Field phenotyping for African crops: overview and perspectives D. Cudjoe et al. 10.3389/fpls.2023.1219673
- Estimating cropland carbon fluxes: A process-based model evaluation at a Swiss crop-rotation site A. Revill et al. 10.1016/j.fcr.2019.02.006
- Investigating the potential impact of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C global warming levels on crop suitability and planting season over West Africa T. Egbebiyi et al. 10.7717/peerj.8851
- Millets for Food Security in the Context of Climate Change: A Review R. Saxena et al. 10.3390/su10072228
- The impact of future climate change and potential adaptation methods on Maize yields in West Africa B. Parkes et al. 10.1007/s10584-018-2290-3
- Evidence of crop production losses in West Africa due to historical global warming in two crop models B. Sultan et al. 10.1038/s41598-019-49167-0
- Weather dataset choice introduces uncertainty to estimates of crop yield responses to climate variability and change B. Parkes et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5ebb
- What can we know about future precipitation in Africa? Robustness, significance and added value of projections from a large ensemble of regional climate models A. Dosio et al. 10.1007/s00382-019-04900-3
- Sugarcane Yield Forecast in Ivory Coast (West Africa) Based on Weather and Vegetation Index Data E. Pignède et al. 10.3390/atmos12111459
- Can reduced tillage buffer the future climate warming effects on maize yield in different soil types of West Africa? E. Nafi et al. 10.1016/j.still.2020.104767
- Extreme climate events in sub-Saharan Africa: A call for improving agricultural technology transfer to enhance adaptive capacity A. Ayanlade et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2022.100311
- Climate change–food security nexus in Burkina Faso E. Hamid 10.1079/PAVSNNR202116009
- Projected change in precipitation and temperature over undivided Sudan and its major cities A. Mohamed et al. 10.1007/s00703-024-01017-z
- Multi-Actors' Co-Implementation of Climate-Smart Village Approach in West Africa: Achievements and Lessons Learnt J. Bayala et al. 10.3389/fsufs.2021.637007
- Modelling climate change impacts on maize C. Chisanga et al. 10.1079/cabireviews202217008
- Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming B. Liu et al. 10.1111/gcb.14542
- Every drop matters: combining population-based and satellite data to investigate the link between lifetime rainfall exposure and chronic undernutrition in children under five years in rural Burkina Faso E. Yeboah et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac661c
- Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for crops in West Africa: a systematic review T. Carr et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac61c8
- Rice yield stability compared to major food crops in West Africa M. Duvallet et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac343a
- Influence of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on temperature mean and precipitation extremes indices in Africa S. Obahoundje et al. 10.1108/IJCCSM-03-2021-0028
- Direct and indirect effects of CO2increase on crop yield in West Africa B. Sultan et al. 10.1002/joc.5960
- Adaptive Introgression: An Untapped Evolutionary Mechanism for Crop Adaptation C. Burgarella et al. 10.3389/fpls.2019.00004
- Current needs for climate services in West Africa: Results from two stakeholder surveys B. Sultan et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100166
- Benchmarking statistical modelling approaches with multi-source remote sensing data for millet yield monitoring: a case study of the groundnut basin in central Senegal Y. Gbodjo et al. 10.1080/01431161.2021.1993465
- Economic impacts of climate-induced crop yield changes: evidence from agri-food industries in six countries D. Wang et al. 10.1007/s10584-021-03062-8
- Calibrating the STICS soil-crop model to explore the impact of agroforestry parklands on millet growth S. Sow et al. 10.1016/j.fcr.2023.109206
Discussed (final revised paper)
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 05 Nov 2024
Short summary
We present an analysis of three crops in West Africa and their response to short-term climate change in a world where temperatures are 1.5 °C above the preindustrial levels. We show that the number of crop failures for all crops is due to increase in the future climate. We further show the difference in yield change across several West African countries and show that the yields are not expected to increase fast enough to prevent food shortages.
We present an analysis of three crops in West Africa and their response to short-term climate...
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