Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 133–150, 2016
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 133–150, 2016

Research article 23 Feb 2016

Research article | 23 Feb 2016

Scaling regimes and linear/nonlinear responses of last millennium climate to volcanic and solar forcings

Shaun Lovejoy and Costas Varotsos

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Cited articles

Anderson, J. L.: A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations, J. Climate, 9, 1518–1530, 1996.
Ashkenazy, Y., Baker, D., Gildor, H., and Havlin, S.: Nonlinearity and multifractality of climate change in the past 420,000 years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2146,, 2003.
Blender, R. and Fraedrich, K.: Comment on “Volcanic forcing improves atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model scaling performance” by D. Vyushin, I. Zhidkov, S. Havlin, A. Bunde, and S. Brenner, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L22213,, 2004.
Bothe, O., Jungclaus, J. H., and Zanchettin, D.: Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble, Clim. Past, 9, 2471–2487,, 2013a.
Bothe, O., Jungclaus, J. H., Zanchettin, D., and Zorita, E.: Climate of the last millennium: ensemble consistency of simulations and reconstructions, Clim. Past, 9, 1089–1110,, 2013b.
Short summary
We compare the statistical properties of solar, volcanic and combined forcings over the range from 1 to 1000 years to see over which scale ranges they additively combine, a prediction of linear response. The main findings are (a) that the variability in the Zebiac–Cane model and GCMs are too weak at centennial and longer scales; (b) for longer than ≈ 50 years, the forcings combine subadditively; and (c) at shorter scales, strong (intermittency, e.g. volcanic) forcings are nonlinear.
Final-revised paper