Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 133–150, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-133-2016
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 133–150, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-133-2016

Research article 23 Feb 2016

Research article | 23 Feb 2016

Scaling regimes and linear/nonlinear responses of last millennium climate to volcanic and solar forcings

Shaun Lovejoy and Costas Varotsos

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Cited articles

Anderson, J. L.: A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations, J. Climate, 9, 1518–1530, 1996.
Ashkenazy, Y., Baker, D., Gildor, H., and Havlin, S.: Nonlinearity and multifractality of climate change in the past 420,000 years, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2146, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018099, 2003.
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Bothe, O., Jungclaus, J. H., and Zanchettin, D.: Consistency of the multi-model CMIP5/PMIP3-past1000 ensemble, Clim. Past, 9, 2471–2487, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013, 2013a.
Bothe, O., Jungclaus, J. H., Zanchettin, D., and Zorita, E.: Climate of the last millennium: ensemble consistency of simulations and reconstructions, Clim. Past, 9, 1089–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013, 2013b.
Short summary
We compare the statistical properties of solar, volcanic and combined forcings over the range from 1 to 1000 years to see over which scale ranges they additively combine, a prediction of linear response. The main findings are (a) that the variability in the Zebiac–Cane model and GCMs are too weak at centennial and longer scales; (b) for longer than ≈ 50 years, the forcings combine subadditively; and (c) at shorter scales, strong (intermittency, e.g. volcanic) forcings are nonlinear.
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